From atymes at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 02:52:57 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2020 19:52:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] corruption In-Reply-To: <010601d67fd8$3e4ff7e0$baefe7a0$@rainier66.com> References: <010601d67fd8$3e4ff7e0$baefe7a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Aug 31, 2020 at 1:55 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Your question leads to an important aspect of our now: transparency. > Transparency is the enemy of corruption. > It has been observed that open and honest communication - which is a personal form of transparency - is of substantial aid in keeping up healthy marital relations. This can perhaps be used to explain to those in office, and who just do not get the whole "transparency" thing, what exactly is being asked of them and why. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 1 04:19:48 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2020 21:19:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] informative graphic Message-ID: <007401d68017$21da3500$658e9f00$@rainier66.com> The CDC published some good graphics today to help people get a visual for how bad is the covid pandemic. Here it is: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard The above data is USA. We see that there is access deaths there, looks like it peaked in the second week of April and has been higher than normal for 27 weeks. That week ending middle of August, the most recent on for which we have data, is looking promising. There is something else in that report I have been wondering about: we know that comorbidities are usually listed on death certificates. So if we had a pile of death certificates in which covid is listed as a cause of death, how many had no other cause? Answer. 6% I had kinda imagined it higher than that. The average number of other causes of death was 2.6 besides covid. Here's the comment: Comorbidities Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities I have some pondering to do. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 41809 bytes Desc: not available URL: From giulio at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 07:15:33 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 09:15:33 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Pigs in cyberspace: Neuralink and the noosphere Message-ID: Pigs in cyberspace: Neuralink and the noosphere Elon Musk?s Neuralink is an important step toward the noosphere envisioned by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin... https://turingchurch.net/pigs-in-cyberspace-neuralink-and-the-noosphere-d783f53f699 From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 10:06:32 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 06:06:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] corruption In-Reply-To: <010601d67fd8$3e4ff7e0$baefe7a0$@rainier66.com> References: <010601d67fd8$3e4ff7e0$baefe7a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Aug 31, 2020 at 4:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> Transparency is the enemy of corruption.* I agree. And just three days ago the chief of the intelligence office John Ratcliffe said he would stop telling Congress about efforts by foreign governments to influence our upcoming election: No More Election Briefings for Congress, Intelligence Chief Says John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 1 15:37:45 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 08:37:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] biker bounce again Message-ID: <00d101d68075$d75db560$86192020$@rainier66.com> OK well, it still isn't clear, and data might still be coming in, but so far, if there is any Sturgis surge in covid cases, it's not much of one. I used the case rate from that college near there for a baseline comparison and estimated what the states should be seeing. If there is a Sturgis surge, it looks smaller (or no larger) than the students suffered at Black Hills State U. Do let us think about this and compare. Both the rally and the school opening had proles coming in from all over. There was a big difference in ages: the late teen/early 20sers on campus vs the pre-geezer biker crowd. The students were required to wear masks always and everywhere on campus, and they nearly all did. Doesn't matter what the biker crowd is required to do, they didn't (rebels they are (without a cause (ask them what they are rebelling against (they come back with a clever riposte (such as "Whaddya got?))))) In all fairness, if any orders were given to the bikers orally, they might not have heard, for their hearing-aid batteries were tired from the trip. Way higher population density at the rally than on the campus. Important difference: students were indoors a good part of the day, bikers were outdoors. I have been to college, seldom had an outdoor lecture. I have been to Sturgis, there is nowhere near enough buildings to put a roof over a quarter of them even in a severe hailstorm. Most of their biker stuff happens outdoors. Seasoned veteran bikers skilled in the art of not dying might have determined to eschew going under any roof for any reason besides using a toilet, and for the men only a specific usually once-a-day use of even that particular appliance. All other activities such as dining, drinking, smoking, fighting, chasing skirts and generally enjoying playing Marlin Brando for a week can (and probably should) be done outdoors at Sturgis. Safer that way, and doesn't risk having the wooden chairs in the saloon being used to whack over a fellow biker's head, risking damage to perfectly good bar furnishing and the spillage of beer. That looks like it to me like the big differences: Bikers denser packed Students younger Bikers mostly outdoors Students masked OK then. From early appearances, the bikers were apparently lower catchers than the students. Ideas please? I have one that is speculative: Black Hills State U might have a lot of students from rural loosely packed areas (there just aren't many big cities anywhere around there.) Many of the most active biker clubs are from the city or from the denser burbs, such as around here. Perhaps those in the cities and burbs have already been exposed and moved past the virus? But the rancher youth may be getting up close and personal for the first time since last spring. So perhaps the rancher youth would catch on their very meet and greet, or their first rasslin match in the old indoor haystack after they arrive on campus? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 15:58:48 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 16:58:48 +0100 Subject: [ExI] biker bounce again In-Reply-To: <00d101d68075$d75db560$86192020$@rainier66.com> References: <00d101d68075$d75db560$86192020$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, 1 Sep 2020 at 16:45, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > All other activities such as dining, drinking, smoking, fighting, chasing skirts and generally enjoying playing Marlin Brando for a week can (and probably should) be done outdoors at Sturgis. Safer that way, and doesn?t risk having the wooden chairs in the saloon being used to whack over a fellow biker?s head, risking damage to perfectly good bar furnishing and the spillage of beer. > > _______________________________________________ Just an idle thought ----- Is this what you tell your bride when she asks 'Did you have fun on your Sturgis trip?'. :) BillK From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 1 16:21:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 09:21:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] biker bounce again In-Reply-To: References: <00d101d68075$d75db560$86192020$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00f501d6807c$00b28d90$0217a8b0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] biker bounce again On Tue, 1 Sep 2020 at 16:45, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > All other activities such as dining, drinking, smoking, fighting, chasing skirts and generally enjoying playing Marlin Brando for a week can (and probably should) be done outdoors at Sturgis. Safer that way, and doesn?t risk having the wooden chairs in the saloon being used to whack over a fellow biker?s head, risking damage to perfectly good bar furnishing and the spillage of beer. > > _______________________________________________ >...Just an idle thought ----- Is this what you tell your bride when she asks 'Did you have fun on your Sturgis trip?'. :) BillK _______________________________________________ HA! Thought of that BillK, and discovered the perfect answer to that particular question: I don't know dear, did I appear to be having fun? I took her with me. That's why I chose her as my sweetheart nearly 40 yrs ago: she likes bikes too. Being drop-dead gorgeous and smart as whip sealed the deal. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 18:17:30 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 14:17:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Alpha-ketoglutarate Message-ID: Bodybuilding supplement promotes healthy aging and extends life span, at least in mice John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 20:10:13 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 15:10:13 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: FW: article In-Reply-To: <019301d68099$d86a6010$893f2030$@rainier66.com> References: <019301d68099$d86a6010$893f2030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: *From:* William Flynn Wallace virus data bill w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02478-z?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=2dc8b44334-briefing-dy-20200901&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-2dc8b44334-44834745 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 1 20:42:14 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 13:42:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] group selection in ep Message-ID: <01c701d680a0$6099c060$21cd4120$@rainier66.com> Keith has hipsterized (hipnotized?) me to evolutionary psychology to some minor extent. I am trying to follow the papers the best I can. This one caught my attention, because I might have some insights to share. I have long thought the conclusion inescapable that evolution does work at the group level. Environment sure appears to influence culture and culture influences mate selection and mate selection influences the genetic content of the local population. That doesn't seem like magic to me. My intuitions in this area are all subjective however, no equations, no physical constants, none of that. I don't trust myself when I am not surrounded by systems of simultaneous equations and mathematical models. I am better with variables than I am with verbiage. Check out this title and the quote: You viewed Evolutionary psychology, memes and the origin of war. A related paper by Prof. Joseph Bulbulia is on Academia: Fired for the Phylogenetic revolution in Religious Studies: A commentary on David Sloan Wilson We hope you enjoy this recommendation! The Academia Team Quote from the paper: The participants were divided into four groups that met over a period of five days to address the topics of "Cultural Evolution of the Structure of Human Groups", "Cultural Evolution of Technology and Science", "Cultural Evolution of Language", and "Cultural Evolution of Religion". The results will appear as a volume published by MIT press, but one conclusion emerged loud and clear: Human cultures are primarily adaptive at the group level. This conclusion might seem shocking to some, given the long history of controversy over the topics of cultural evolution and group selection, separately and in conjunction with each other. It might also seem suspect coming from me, a lifelong proponent of group selection. Nevertheless, not only did it represent the consensus view of all four groups-a claim that the participants are free to dispute-but it can also be justified by analogy with species as biological entities that are primarily adapted to their environments. In this article, I will first outline the case for biological species and then make the parallel case for human cultures. Corresponding author's e-mail: dwilson at binghamton.edu Citation: Wilson, David Sloan. 2013. Human Cultures are Primarily Adaptive at theGroup Level (with comment). Cliodynamics 4: 102-138. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Sep 1 22:18:25 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2020 23:18:25 +0100 Subject: [ExI] informative graphic In-Reply-To: <007401d68017$21da3500$658e9f00$@rainier66.com> References: <007401d68017$21da3500$658e9f00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, 1 Sep 2020 at 05:23, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > The CDC published some good graphics today to help people get a visual for how bad is the covid pandemic. Here it is: > https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard > > The above data is USA. We see that there is access deaths there, looks like it peaked in the second week of April and has been higher than normal for 27 weeks. That week ending middle of August, the most recent on for which we have data, is looking promising. > > There is something else in that report I have been wondering about: we know that comorbidities are usually listed on death certificates. So if we had a pile of death certificates in which covid is listed as a cause of death, how many had no other cause? > Answer? 6% > > I had kinda imagined it higher than that. > The average number of other causes of death was 2.6 besides covid. > > Here?s the comment: > Comorbidities > Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death? > https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities > > I have some pondering to do. > spike _______________________________________________ FactCheck has explained the 6% figure. The problem with COVID is that it causes many illnesses, mainly pneumonia and respiratory problems and makes any already present medical problems much worse. BillK From ben at zaiboc.net Wed Sep 2 07:47:28 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 08:47:28 +0100 Subject: [ExI] corruption In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I've long thought that any system of government should be based on the principle that bad actors will always arise, in any branch, so an interlocking system of checks and balances needs to be used to prevent them from doing too much harm. This means a non-heirarchical system, with many feedback loops, so that no one individual or group is ultimately in charge. A bit like how the brain works, really. Basically, don't try to create a corruption-free system, just assume that corruption is inevitable, and think about how it can be contolled and eliminated wherever and whenever it arises. -- Ben Zaiboc From sparge at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 11:56:03 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 07:56:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] COVID Bradykinin hypothesis Message-ID: Interesting results from my workplace. https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63 A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 ? and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged Earlier this summer, the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee set about crunching data on more than 40,000 genes from 17,000 genetic samples in an effort to better understand Covid-19 . Summit is the second-fastest computer in the world, but the process ? which involved analyzing 2.5 billion genetic combinations ? still took more than a week. When Summit was done, researchers analyzed the results. It was, in the words of Dr. Daniel Jacobson, lead researcher and chief scientist for computational systems biology at Oak Ridge, a ?eureka moment .? The computer had revealed a new theory about how Covid-19 impacts the body: the bradykinin hypothesis . The hypothesis provides a model that explains many aspects of Covid-19, including some of its most bizarre symptoms . It also suggests 10-plus potential treatments, many of which are already FDA approved. Jacobson?s group published their results in a paper in the journal *eLife* in early July. According to the team?s findings, a Covid-19 infection generally begins when the virus enters the body through ACE2 receptors in the nose, (The receptors, which the virus is known to target , are abundant there.) The virus then proceeds through the body, entering cells in other places where ACE2 is also present: the intestines, kidneys, and heart. This likely accounts for at least some of the disease?s cardiac and GI symptoms. But once Covid-19 has established itself in the body, things start to get really interesting. According to Jacobson?s group, the data Summit analyzed shows that Covid-19 isn?t content to simply infect cells that already express lots of ACE2 receptors. Instead, it actively hijacks the body?s own systems, tricking it into upregulating ACE2 receptors in places where they?re usually expressed at low or medium levels , including the lungs. In this sense, Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. Once inside, though, they don?t just take your stuff ? they also throw open all your doors and windows so their accomplices can rush in and help pillage more efficiently. The renin?angiotensin system (RAS) controls many aspects of the circulatory system, including the body?s levels of a chemical called bradykinin, which normally helps to regulate blood pressure. According to the team?s analysis, when the virus tweaks the RAS, it causes the body?s mechanisms for regulating bradykinin to go haywire. Bradykinin receptors are resensitized, and the body also stops effectively breaking down bradykinin. (ACE normally degrades bradykinin, but when the virus downregulates it, it can?t do this as effectively.) The end result, the researchers say, is to release a bradykinin storm ? a massive, runaway buildup of bradykinin in the body. According to the bradykinin hypothesis, it?s this storm that is ultimately responsible for many of Covid-19?s deadly effects. Jacobson?s team says in their paper that ?the pathology of Covid-19 is likely the result of Bradykinin Storms rather than cytokine storms,? which had been previously identified in Covid-19 patients, but that ?the two may be intricately linked.? Other papers had previously identified bradykinin storms as a possible cause of Covid-19?s pathologies. Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. As bradykinin builds up in the body, it dramatically increases vascular permeability. In short, it makes your blood vessels leaky. This aligns with recent clinical data, which increasingly views Covid-19 primarily as a vascular disease , rather than a respiratory one. But Covid-19 still has a massive effect on the lungs. As blood vessels start to leak due to a bradykinin storm, the researchers say, the lungs can fill with fluid. Immune cells also leak out into the lungs, Jacobson?s team found, causing inflammation. Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything Many of the infection?s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common elemental.medium.com And Covid-19 has another especially insidious trick. Through another pathway, the team?s data shows, it increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. HLA is often used in soaps and lotions for its ability to absorb more than 1,000 times its weight in fluid. When it combines with fluid leaking into the lungs, the results are disastrous: It forms a hydrogel, which can fill the lungs in some patients . According to Jacobson, once this happens, ?it?s like trying to breathe through Jell-O .? This may explain why ventilators have proven less effective in treating advanced Covid-19 than doctors originally expected, based on experiences with other viruses. ?It reaches a point where regardless of how much oxygen you pump in, it doesn?t matter, because the alveoli in the lungs are filled with this hydrogel,? Jacobson says. ?The lungs become like a water balloon.? Patients can suffocate even while receiving full breathing support. The bradykinin hypothesis also extends to many of Covid-19?s effects on the heart. About one in five hospitalized Covid-19 patients have damage to their hearts, even if they never had cardiac issues before. Some of this is likely due to the virus infecting the heart directly through its ACE2 receptors. But the RAS also controls aspects of cardiac contractions and blood pressure. According to the researchers, bradykinin storms could create arrhythmias and low blood pressure, which are often seen in Covid-19 patients. The bradykinin hypothesis also accounts for Covid-19?s neurological effects , which are some of the most surprising and concerning elements of the disease. These symptoms (which include dizziness, seizures, delirium, and stroke) are present in as many as half of hospitalized Covid-19 patients. According to Jacobson and his team, MRI studies in France revealed that many Covid-19 patients have evidence of leaky blood vessels in their brains. Bradykinin ? especially at high doses ? can also lead to a breakdown of the blood-brain barrier . Under normal circumstances, this barrier acts as a filter between your brain and the rest of your circulatory system. It lets in the nutrients and small molecules that the brain needs to function, while keeping out toxins and pathogens and keeping the brain?s internal environment tightly regulated. If bradykinin storms cause the blood-brain barrier to break down, this could allow harmful cells and compounds into the brain, leading to inflammation, potential brain damage, and many of the neurological symptoms Covid-19 patients experience. Jacobson told me, ?It is a reasonable hypothesis that many of the neurological symptoms in Covid-19 could be due to an excess of bradykinin. It has been reported that bradykinin would indeed be likely to increase the permeability of the blood-brain barrier. In addition, similar neurological symptoms have been observed in other diseases that result from an excess of bradykinin.? Increased bradykinin levels could also account for other common Covid-19 symptoms. ACE inhibitors ? a class of drugs used to treat high blood pressure ? have a similar effect on the RAS system as Covid-19, increasing bradykinin levels . In fact, Jacobson and his team note in their paper that ?the virus? acts pharmacologically as an ACE inhibitor? ? almost directly mirroring the actions of these drugs. By acting like a natural ACE inhibitor, Covid-19 may be causing the same effects that hypertensive patients sometimes get when they take blood pressure?lowering drugs. ACE inhibitors are known to cause a dry cough and fatigue, two textbook symptoms of Covid-19. And they can potentially increase blood potassium levels, which has also been observed in Covid-19 patients . The similarities between ACE inhibitor side effects and Covid-19 symptoms strengthen the bradykinin hypothesis, the researchers say. ACE inhibitors are also known to cause a loss of taste and smell . Jacobson stresses, though, that this symptom is more likely due to the virus ?affecting the cells surrounding olfactory nerve cells? than the direct effects of bradykinin. Though still an emerging theory, the bradykinin hypothesis explains several other of Covid-19?s seemingly bizarre symptoms. Jacobson and his team speculate that leaky vasculature caused by bradykinin storms could be responsible for ?Covid toes ,? a condition involving swollen, bruised toes that some Covid-19 patients experience. Bradykinin can also mess with the thyroid gland, which could produce the thyroid symptoms recently observed in some patients. The bradykinin hypothesis could also explain some of the broader demographic patterns of the disease?s spread. The researchers note that some aspects of the RAS system are sex-linked, with proteins for several receptors (such as one called TMSB4X) located on the X chromosome. This means that ?women? would have twice the levels of this protein than men,? a result borne out by the researchers? data. In their paper, Jacobson?s team concludes that this ?could explain the lower incidence of Covid-19 induced mortality in women.? A genetic quirk of the RAS could be giving women extra protection against the disease . The bradykinin hypothesis provides a model that ?contributes to a better understanding of Covid-19? and ?adds novelty to the existing literature,? according to scientists Frank van de Veerdonk, Jos WM van der Meer, and Roger Little, who peer-reviewed the team?s paper . It predicts nearly all the disease?s symptoms, even ones (like bruises on the toes) that at first appear random, and further suggests new treatments for the disease. As Jacobson and team point out, several drugs target aspects of the RAS and are already FDA approved to treat other conditions. They could arguably be applied to treating Covid-19 as well. Several, like danazol, stanozolol, and ecallantide, reduce bradykinin production and could potentially stop a deadly bradykinin storm. Others, like icatibant, reduce bradykinin signaling and could blunt its effects once it?s already in the body. Interestingly, Jacobson?s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19 . The vitamin is readily available over the counter, and around 20% of the population is deficient . If indeed the vitamin proves effective at reducing the severity of bradykinin storms, it could be an easy, relatively safe way to reduce the severity of the virus. Other compounds could treat symptoms associated with bradykinin storms. Hymecromone, for example, could reduce hyaluronic acid levels, potentially stopping deadly hydrogels from forming in the lungs. And timbetasin could mimic the mechanism that the researchers believe protects women from more severe Covid-19 infections. All of these potential treatments are speculative, of course, and would need to be studied in a rigorous, controlled environment before their effectiveness could be determined and they could be used more broadly. Covid-19 stands out for both the scale of its global impact and the apparent randomness of its many symptoms . Physicians have struggled to understand the disease and come up with a unified theory for how it works. Though as of yet unproven, the bradykinin hypothesis provides such a theory. And like all good hypotheses, it also provides specific, testable predictions ? in this case, actual drugs that could provide relief to real patients. The researchers are quick to point out that ?the testing of any of these pharmaceutical interventions should be done in well-designed clinical trials.? As to the next step in the process, Jacobson is clear: ?We have to get this message out.? His team?s finding won?t cure Covid-19. But if the treatments it points to pan out in the clinic, interventions guided by the bradykinin hypothesis could greatly reduce patients? suffering ? and potentially save lives. -- See also https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/computing/hardware/has-the-summit-supercomputer-cracked-the-covid-code -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 13:37:08 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 09:37:08 -0400 Subject: [ExI] LIGO detects the largest black hole merger yet Message-ID: In today's issue of Physical Review Letters the two Lego detectors in the US and the Virgo detector in Italy announced they had detected on May 21 2019 the gravitational waves from the merger of two Black Holes of 65 and 85 Solar masses which produced a Black Hole of 142 solar masses with 8 solar masses of matter being converted into the energy of gravitational waves. It was the largest merger of Black Holes ever detected by gravitational waves and one of the most distant at 11.3 billion light years. An optical counterpart of this merger seems to have also been detected so it must've happened in a region rich in gas and dust. It's not clear how the two progenitor black holes could've been made, 65 solar masses is really big, it's pushing the edge of the possible for a single supergiant star to have produced according to our current understanding of stellar evolution, and it's hard to see how they could have themselves been formed by mergers 11.3 billion years ago of smaller Black Holes in the short amount of time since the Big Bang. But science thrives on mystery. A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 Suns John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 2 13:58:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 06:58:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] LIGO detects the largest black hole merger yet In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <003001d68131$1b2f17a0$518d46e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] LIGO detects the largest black hole merger yet >?In today's issue of Physical Review Letters the two Lego detectors in the US and the Virgo detector in Italy announced they had detected on May 21 2019 the gravitational waves from the merger of two Black Holes of 65 and 85 Solar masses which produced a Black Hole of 142 solar masses with 8 solar masses of matter being converted into the energy of gravitational waves? >? ?But science thrives on mystery. A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 Suns John K Clark John these LIGO results have caused the biggest and most jarring impact on my thinking than any scientific instrument in my lifetime, since I began being interested in astronomy in about second grade. Even Hubble, while that was mind-blowing cool, didn?t really cause me to seriously rethink my own sanity. I don?t see how the hell events of this magnitude could still be happening at this point in history. Clearly they are, so I suspect the anomaly is somewhere between my ears. Nature does what she does, with no concern about what she is doing to my head. Now I have had two big jolts right together, way down here at this end of life: the LIGO results starting about 4 years ago, and the second one realizing I wasn?t the only person who recognized the Hawking?s explanation for Hawking radiation couldn?t be right. I have known there is something seriously wrong with that notion he offered in Brief History of Time, but had no idea what could be the real mechanism. Two major surprises, way down here. What a marvelous time to be alive. John you and I are two lucky guys to have lived to see this. To be alive now, to have enough brains left to marvel at it, I am filled with deep gratitude for that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 15:00:50 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 08:00:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: <1599048907787.4e009ede-a65e-4635-9da3-12c6481d6565@bf04x.hubspotemail.net> References: <1599048907787.4e009ede-a65e-4635-9da3-12c6481d6565@bf04x.hubspotemail.net> Message-ID: Keith: might you be interested in writing up your understanding of how to do solar power satellites for these guys? The US Department of Defense drops billions on projects like nobody else. (Running this through ExI list since I think there are some others on the list who'd be interested in seeing this, if not pitching.) ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: AFWERX Date: Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 5:16 AM Subject: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! To: Adrian, find out more about the Challenge and how to submit! [image: AFWERX Reimagining Energy Email-01] Dear Adrian, We're excited to launch our most ambitious Challenge yet?Reimagining Energy for the DoD?and we want you to be a part of it. Submission window is open from September 2, 2020, until October 1, 2020. *About the Challenge* The Department of Defense (DoD) is currently the largest energy consumer globally, both operationally and the way in which they power installations. By reducing demand and reliance on petroleum and modernizing the energy infrastructure, the U.S. Air Force can improve the way they consume energy, increase sustainability, and remain adaptable to future impacts of climate change and reduction in fossil fuels. This is an incredible opportunity for the DoD to partner with innovative industries to identify, fund and launch new energy strategies from now until 2045. The Challenge is seeking solutions that can be implemented immediately, those that require some further development and also moonshot ideas that may not be implemented until 2045. *?The disruption of the energy sector is already happening. There?s unbelievable innovation occurring in how we produce, transmit and store energy. The DoD must partner with those leading this disruption in both industry and academia, to ensure we maintain our competitive advantage.?* -Colonel Charles Bris-Bois, Air Force Disruptive Technology Team. The Reimagining Energy for the DoD Challenge aims to gather the right people from industry, government, and academia to identify solutions for a sustainable energy infrastructure for the Department of Defense. The goals of the Challenge are to leverage all energy sources for military use such as wind, solar, thermal, hydro, nuclear and hydrogen and increase mission effectiveness and quality of life, while reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. *The Reimagining Energy for the DoD Challenge encompasses six specific topics:* [image: afwicfixedandmobileenergygeneration] *Fixed and Mobile Energy Generation* [image: afwicenergytransmissionanddistribution] *Energy Generation Transmission and Distribution* [image: afwicfixedandmobileenergystorage] *Fixed and Mobile Energy Storage* [image: 4newwarfighting] *New Warfighting and Operational Equipment Not Dependent on Fossil Fuels* [image: afwicsdataavailabilityforimprovedplanninganddecisionmaking] *Data Availability for Improved Planning and Decision Making* [image: afwicsenergyculture-policy-andeducation] *Energy Culture, Policy, and Education* *Within each Challenge topic area, we are also looking at 3 Deployment Horizons of solutions. * 1. Immediately deployable solutions 2. Solutions that would be deployable within the next 10 years 3. Solutions that would be deployable within the next 10-25 years *Timeline of the Challenge and How to Submit* The open call for innovative solutions for the Reimagining Energy Challenge launches on September 2, 2020. The submission window will remain open until October 1, 2020. *Early Bird Submissions* There are benefits for teams that submit their solutions by September 14, as they will be invited to participate in an event on September 17, where they will receive feedback on submissions so far, participate in a Q&A session and also a networking and collaboration opportunity. Find Out More and Submit a Solution *SBIR / STTR OPPORTUNITY* We are also excited to announce that the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs also have a focus area for this Challenge running in parallel to the Challenge timeline. If you are a US-owned business and designated as a Small Business by the Small Business Administration (SBA), you may be eligible to apply for the SBIR/STTR process. *Please note:* The SBIR process is independent of the AFWERX Challenge process. SBIR funds can be allocated to this topic so the opportunity exists for additional contracting options for any US owned Small Businesses that qualify. Click here for more information on SBIR/STTR *EXPECTED OUTCOMES FROM YOUR SOLUTIONS* *The outcomes that we are hoping to achieve from this Challenge include:* - Energy availability when and where needed for mission effectiveness and quality of life - More effective warfighting and humanitarian missions that are less reliant on fossil fuels - Increased ability to rapidly respond to humanitarian crises - Leveraging all energy sources for military use such as wind, water, nuclear, hydrogen, thermal, etc. - Creation of new industries and capabilities inspired by the U.S. DoD - Leveraging energy from space *We also have two aspiration targets from this challenge:* - Elimination of all fossil fuel dependency - Carbon-negative DoD Find Out More and Submit a Solution AFWERX Vegas, 3773 Howard Hughes Pkwy 400 S, Las Vegas, NV 89169 Unsubscribe Manage preferences [image: Facebook] [image: LinkedIn] [image: Twitter] [image: Instagram] [image: AFWERX Reimagining Energy Email-02] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 2 16:57:33 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 09:57:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] this is public education today Message-ID: <003a01d6814a$28576ef0$79064cd0$@rainier66.com> My son's English class was given the assignment to view the video below and imitate John Green's style by writing our own open letter to teachers explaining our expectations to them. John Green video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x78PnPd-V-A Oh goodness. With the emphasis on good. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 17:21:07 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 12:21:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: study In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: This seems like a very, very important study, but my brain is balking at figuring it out. If you can do it, you will be even with me for doing this book. (Spike's balked too) bill w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17828-8 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 17:25:52 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 13:25:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] LIGO detects the largest black hole merger yet In-Reply-To: <003001d68131$1b2f17a0$518d46e0$@rainier66.com> References: <003001d68131$1b2f17a0$518d46e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 10:00 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *> I wasn?t the only person who recognized the Hawking?s explanation for > Hawking radiation couldn?t be right. I have known there is something > seriously wrong with that notion he offered in Brief History of Time, but > had no idea what could be the real mechanism.* > The thing that bothers me is that Hawking Radiation causes Black holes to eventually evaporate (after about 10^67 years for one the mass of the sun, more massive ones would take longer) but Black Holes contain an enormous amount of entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics says entropy can't decrease, so when a Black Hole disappears where did all that entropy go? There are some ideas but nobody knows. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 2 19:14:14 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 12:14:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new goal Message-ID: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> I have a new goal in life. I want to become Hank Green when I grow up. We have a Hank Williams Jr. I want to be Hank Green Jr: https://youtu.be/Febfj41cBmg spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 19:34:47 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 15:34:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] new goal In-Reply-To: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> References: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 3:16 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *> I have a new goal in life. I want to become Hank Green when I grow > up. We have a Hank Williams Jr. I want to be Hank Green Jr:* > > > > https://youtu.be/Febfj41cBmg > That is a good video, it's pretty much with Steven Pinker's thought provoking book "Better Angels Of Our Nature" is all about". John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 20:03:26 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 15:03:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] new goal In-Reply-To: References: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: If this is your aspiration, Spike, I savor the odds that we will never meet. The other guy - at least I could understand him. bill w On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 2:37 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 3:16 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >> *> I have a new goal in life. I want to become Hank Green when I grow >> up. We have a Hank Williams Jr. I want to be Hank Green Jr:* >> >> >> >> https://youtu.be/Febfj41cBmg >> > > That is a good video, it's pretty much with Steven Pinker's thought > provoking book "Better Angels Of Our Nature" is all about". > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 2 20:11:41 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 13:11:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new goal In-Reply-To: References: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <016001d68165$46b84610$d428d230$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat https://youtu.be/Febfj41cBmg >?That is a good video, it's pretty much with Steven Pinker's thought provoking book "Better Angels Of Our Nature" is all about". John K Clark I am a big fan of Pinker and the Angels book. I didn?t hear of it until about spring of 2016, but John you likely already know what was consuming my full and undivided in 2016. I was there, at SLAC, when the first public announcement of the LIGO results were made. It was hard to think of much else for some time after I heard that sound. I remember being in that huge auditorium, packed to the rafters, as the good professor went thru the argument for how they isolated the signal, separated it from random noise, reached the end of his talk and commented ??so we took the frequencies and translated them into something your ear can detect?? 600 geeks, standing room only, it was so quiet in there you could hear your own heartbeat. Then he said: ?This? is the sound? of two black holes merging:? https://youtu.be/QyDcTbR-kEA I marveled at living to hear that sound. I was filled with gratitude that my friend from college came out from Colorado to join me in that talk. Gratitude is negative anger. I have enough of it to cancel any residual anger from everything else. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 2 20:58:06 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 13:58:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] new goal In-Reply-To: References: <00c201d6815d$3f732260$be596720$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <019f01d6816b$c25df6b0$4719e410$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] new goal https://youtu.be/Febfj41cBmg If this is your aspiration, Spike, I savor the odds that we will never meet. The other guy - at least I could understand him. bill w No worries, BillW, I understand both of us (Hank and me.) Hank?s view on life has been one I have held since before he was born. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 2 23:05:28 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 18:05:28 -0500 Subject: [ExI] (no subject) Message-ID: 5. A Minnesota man is the first person known to have died of Covid-19 after attending the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally last month. Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in South Dakota for the 10-day event, many showing little interest in social distancing or wearing masks. The state has seen a sharp increase in coronavirus cases since the rally ended Aug. 16 ? more than 2,000 new cases in the past week. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 00:44:17 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 17:44:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers Message-ID: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> From: William Flynn Wallace Sent: Wednesday, September 2, 2020 4:05 PM To: spike ; ExI chat list Subject: >?5. A Minnesota man is the first person known to have died of Covid-19 after attending the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally last month. Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in South Dakota for the 10-day event, many showing little interest in social distancing or wearing masks. The state has seen a sharp increase in coronavirus cases since the rally ended Aug. 16 ? more than 2,000 new cases in the past week? Ja I heard. My BHSU model predicted we would have waaaay more than that by now. That doesn?t mean we won?t eventually get that many, but in big round numbers, we can estimate thus: about one seven-hundredth of America attended the rally. Reasoning: about 330 million proles in the USA, about half a million attended the rally, so close enough to about one in 700 Americans attended the rally. It is that big. If we use big round numbers, about 1000 Americans perish of or with Covid every day. It is dropping now, but we can use 1000 for conservative numbers (the numbers at that local university were crazy high.) If we have 1000 chances of a 1/700 event, we should expect about one rally-goer death with or of covid per day (even if the biker dude caught covid but didn?t expire OF covid (but rather another rallygoer left a message on the voicemail that she was mildly pregnant (resulting in the wayward biker actually perishing of blunt force trauma (when his outraged bride bashed his goddam brains out with a baseball bat (that would be an example of dying WITH covid but not necessarily OF covid (he tested positive in the mortuary, he goes into the statistics (he?s one of the 94% of the WITHs (not part of the 6% OFs (but I digress.)))))))) Where was I please? Oh yeah, statistics. Please my smart friends, do follow this line of reasoning, even if you don?t care about hapless bikers perishing at the business end of a baseball bat, do ponder this and tell me if my thinking is erroneous. Never mind for now that nearby University which may have supplied come of the young harlots for the event, just consider my reasoning: if one in 700 yanks went to the rally and about 1000 yanks perish each day of or with covid, then it is reasonable to expect about one rally-goer to perish of or with covid each day just by random chance. We?re not seeing that. I don?t know why. There are no political anything clouding the picture from what I can tell. No politician issued these bikers any permits or otherwise to come to Sturgis, the bikers didn?t ask for anyone?s permission (bikers don?t do things like that (we suck at following rules.)) So why are we seeing so few Sturgis covid deaths please? These are being tracked and reported carefully. We get our first Sturgis covid death today, but we shoulda seen a couple dozen by now and I don?t understand why so few. Do motorcycles cure covid? How? Exi-friends, stop and ponder this please and do offer some explanation, because I think there is an important truth lurking in this data. I have an idea what it is, but I want to see if anyone else suggests it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 01:58:13 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 21:58:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 8:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > So why are we seeing so few Sturgis covid deaths please? > > These are being tracked and reported carefully. We get our first Sturgis > covid death today, but we shoulda seen a couple dozen by now and I don?t > understand why so few. Do motorcycles cure covid? How? > > Exi-friends, stop and ponder this please and do offer some explanation, > because I think there is an important truth lurking in this data. I have > an idea what it is, but I want to see if anyone else suggests it. > > Riding motorcycles is more effective at preventing covid than HCQ and drinking bleach? Now the contracts can go to Harley Davidson and Honda, right? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Thu Sep 3 02:11:47 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Wed, 02 Sep 2020 19:11:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers Message-ID: <20200902191147.Horde.MPCJFSabNKwn4P_-8eO18Td@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> I agree Sturgis was an interesting experiment. Here are my fast and loose approximations: For the past few weeks the USA has averaged about 40k new cases a day. So assuming an infectious window of 5 days, that is about 200k people infected and infectious at any one time. That means that about 1 in 1500 Americans is actively spreading virus. So if 460k bikers attended the rally, than about 300 bikers should have brought COVID-19 with them when they attended. So if those 300 bikers spent a week carousing with half a million people and only infected 260 new cases, that suggests an R0 of less than 1. For that many people to spend that much time together shirking masks and social distancing rules and still having an R0 that low means that most of the bikers were already herd-immune. I think vaccine or not, the American portion of the pandemic will be done by winter. Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 02:14:24 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 19:14:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] dead bikers On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 8:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: So why are we seeing so few Sturgis covid deaths please? Exi-friends, stop and ponder this please and do offer some explanation, because I think there is an important truth lurking in this data. I have an idea what it is, but I want to see if anyone else suggests it. >?Riding motorcycles is more effective at preventing covid than HCQ and drinking bleach? >?Now the contracts can go to Harley Davidson and Honda, right? Harley yes. Honda? Insufficient data. Anyone else on why the lack of biker covid fatalities? Don?t make me go all Ferris Beuller?s bring economics teacher on yas, start that annoying anyone anyone anyone business: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA Why are so few bikers perishing of covid? Do offer something to suggest why we are seeing as much as an order of magnitude fewer than we would expect, even if that rally wasn?t a spreader at all. Ideas please? Otherwise I will offer a notion that I damn well hope is right, having little to do with my own 105 horsepower vaccine waiting in my garage. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Thu Sep 3 02:54:30 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 22:54:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <20200902191147.Horde.MPCJFSabNKwn4P_-8eO18Td@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200902191147.Horde.MPCJFSabNKwn4P_-8eO18Td@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <7FF3FEFC-F8EC-4BB7-8B20-94ED9835D3C9@alumni.virginia.edu> On Sep 2, 2020, at 10:12 PM, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > > and only infected 260 new cases Maybe. This population is very hard to track. There wasn?t contact tracing of everyone. Many try to live off the books, don?t want to be found, wouldn?t respond to surveys etc. I?d guess more than the average American. Maybe wouldn?t go to the doctor or get tested if sick. Hospital admissions may be a what it would take to record a covid positive. Bikers are diverse I recognize, but the portion that wants to avoid government intrusion is probably bigger than other subcultures/groups. Based on my experience with bikers. I?ve been to sturgis and have family and past client who were in that subculture. Do people agree or think I?m off base? I am speculating and can?t claim I?ve interacted with a representative sample. -Henry From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 03:03:34 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 23:03:34 -0400 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <003b01d6819e$20bc1020$62343060$@rainier66.com> References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> <003b01d6819e$20bc1020$62343060$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: > > > On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 10:14 PM wrote: > > > *On Behalf Of *Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat > > >?Riding motorcycles is more effective at preventing covid than HCQ and > drinking bleach? > > >?Now the contracts can go to Harley Davidson and Honda, right? > > > > Harley yes. Honda? Insufficient data. > > If Musk gets that neural link working at scale, we might be walking around > in Asimo rather than wearing flimsy masks... so Honda might still be a > contender. Or maybe Boston Dynamics' robot dog? What the hell, we're > living on Zoom/Skype/Teams now ... who wouldn't mind going for a [virtual] > run just for the hell of it? Oh wait, i'm way off topic. meh, sort of > parallel to covid .. maybe covid-inspired transhumanism? > > > > Why are so few bikers perishing of covid? Do offer something to suggest > why we are seeing as much as an order of magnitude fewer than we would > expect, even if that rally wasn?t a spreader at all. Ideas please? > Otherwise I will offer a notion that I damn well hope is right, having > little to do with my own 105 horsepower vaccine waiting in my garage. > > > > What are the other relevant features of the sub population aka "bikers" > that makes them so atypical from those slain-[by|with]-covid ? > > > > Is it the amount of time spend outside in the sunlight, breathing > mostly-fresh air? Is it some particular diet? Is it a lifestyle that is > maybe less stress-laden? > > > > I honestly don't know enough about "bikers" to make any non-silly guesses. > > > > Just tell us what you think already, woodja? > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 03:13:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 20:13:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> >?Why are so few bikers perishing of covid? Do offer something to suggest why we are seeing as much as an order of magnitude fewer than we would expect, even if that rally wasn?t a spreader at all. Ideas please? Otherwise I will offer a notion that I damn well hope is right, having little to do with my own 105 horsepower vaccine waiting in my garage? spike Mike Dougherty posted me offlist an idea I have had for some time, on a list of possibilities he considered. I urged him to forward that offlist to here. I cannot feel free to post here what he posted to me privately, but I will tell the idea that seems plausible to me and why. If we randomly chose half a million Americans and put a tattoo on them, something unusual, such as ?Didn?t go to Sturgis in 2020, too dangerous, if dead of covid, call 555-100-DEAD.? Then any time a coroner coroned a corpse and saw that message, she would report. If so, we should be hearing about one of those a day. Sturgis started a month ago. So far we are hearing of the first Sturgis stiff today, the first one. That is a big anomaly. If you chose an age demographic to match the Sturgis crowd, and looked at the typical fatality rate, it is about half again in the age range I so fondly recall from those kinds of events, so we should be seeing one or two a day. But we aren?t. So why did the virus not spread like wildfire in California at that rally? Possibility: masks don?t really help as much as we think, but? perhaps? direct sunlight on skin does. Reasoning: it has long been suggested that low vitamin D levels might contribute to that reaction that slays proles with covid. We know that sunlight on skin produces the kind of vitamin D that even swallowing a pill does not accomplish. We know that there is always one hellllll of a lotta skin showing at the annual Sturgis rally (even if it is actually the kind of skin even an old horndog would pretty much rather not see (details not available (use your imagination (oh mercy, here comes granny biker chick again (they say she was quite the looker during the Harding administration.))))) The scary part: if getting out in the sun helps protect from covid, nearly everything we have done to combat covid was wrong. Not just wrong, it was pi radians wrong. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 04:05:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2020 21:05:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007101d681a7$768b23c0$63a16b40$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] dead bikers >>?Why are so few bikers perishing of covid? Do offer something to suggest why we are seeing as much as an order of magnitude fewer than we would expect ? spike >?Possibility: masks don?t really help as much as we think, but? perhaps? direct sunlight on skin does? if getting out in the sun helps protect from covid, nearly everything we have done to combat covid was ? pi radians wrong?spike This whole thing really has my wheels spinning (or since we are talking about bikes, my wheel.) A biker friend of mine who died about 3 years ago was a veteran of Korea and Vietnam. He liked to go to Sturgis nearly every year. I recall a comment he made about two special event he attended there: the veterans reunions. He said the Korean vets were dwindling to nothing, but the Vietnam vets were going strong at Sturgis. He wasn?t surprised if a lot of the Sturgisers were there more for that Vietnam vets reunion than they were for the bikes and old ladies letting it all hang down. OUT rather, letting it hang out. So? He is gone now, perished of emphysema. Last time I saw him he was simultaneously using an oxygen tank and? smoking. I gently inquired, ?whaaaaaat in the heeeeeellllll?? He made a good point: he had been smoking for nearly 70 years. No point in trying to stop now just to get an extra coupla weeks life. He assured me he was being most careful. I stood ready, should it be necessary, to stomp him out. Had that oxygen tank misbehaved with that cigarette, he risked giving a whole new meaning to the term ?flaming-ass liberal.? The reason I mention it: the most striking feature of my biker friend was his leathery skin on his face and hands. If his sleeves rode up, one could see his skin looked normal elsewhere. But that face and those hands had seen a lot of sun in 83 years. Feedback please? I have another disturbing observation. In California the governor issued ?Shelter in place? orders. Shelter in place. What is shelter in place? Surprising how many of my own neighbors thought that meant there was a law passed which meant one was not to come out of one?s house. Plenty of people around here already had grocery delivery, so that actually was an option. One of my own scouts (from Ukraine) didn?t poke his nose out the door for over two full months this past summer. He already had a pasty complexion before. His mother asked me to demand of him to get his ghostly pale ass outdoors and let?s see some physically strong to go with the mentally awake and morally straight. He went out for about 3 minutes. One day. Over three weeks ago. Hasn?t been out since. Sigh. If sunlight offers some protection from death by covid, that would explain why the southern hemisphere was delayed, and why New York was hit so hard: their governors demanded shelter in place as well, and they did make it sound like there was a law requiring New Yorkers to stay indoors and die inside their own homes. Ideas please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Thu Sep 3 04:16:27 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Wed, 02 Sep 2020 21:16:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 Message-ID: <20200902211627.Horde.-_Mnoa_dm0g2Q5gVDFyQHai@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Henry Rivera: > On Sep 2, 2020, at 10:12 PM, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat > wrote: >> >> and only infected 260 new cases > > > Maybe. This population is very hard to track. There wasn?t contact > tracing of everyone. Many try to live off the books, don?t want to > be found, wouldn?t respond to surveys etc. I?d guess more than the > average American. Maybe wouldn?t go to the doctor or get tested if > sick. Hospital admissions may be a what it would take to record a > covid positive. Bikers are diverse I recognize, but the portion that > wants to avoid government intrusion is probably bigger than other > subcultures/groups. Based on my experience with bikers. I?ve been to > sturgis and have family and past client who were in that subculture. > Do people agree or think I?m off base? I am speculating and can?t > claim I?ve interacted with a representative sample. Very good points all. I do admit my prognostication was perhaps overly-optimistic in consideration of how "off the grid" a lot of these guys are. Stuart LaForge From avant at sollegro.com Thu Sep 3 04:28:19 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Wed, 02 Sep 2020 21:28:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200902212819.Horde.uSW_RnQOlzGWmvwJ2vcl7aK@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Spike: > The scary part: if getting out in the sun helps protect from covid, > nearly everything we have done to combat covid was wrong. Not just > wrong, it was pi radians wrong. What?!? You question the wisdom of hiding huddled in our caves to protect ourselves from a mutated bat-virus? ;-) But yes, Spike, I agree that sunlight played in a role in protecting many of the bikers. The UV-radiation in direct sunlight would destroy most viruses because it mucks up their genomes which is much of what the payload of a virion is. Also considering they were bikers alcohol might have played some small role also. Stuart LaForge From sparge at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 12:35:41 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 08:35:41 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? Message-ID: >From the article I posted yesterday: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63 *According to the team?s findings, a Covid-19 infection generally begins when the virus enters the body through ACE2 receptors in the nose, (The receptors, which the virus is known to target , are abundant there.) The virus then proceeds through the body, entering cells in other places where ACE2 is also present: the intestines, kidneys, and heart. This likely accounts for at least some of the disease?s cardiac and GI symptoms.* I'm wondering if that means breathing through one's nose increases the likelihood and/or severity of covid. Not suggesting this explains the Sturgis numbers. :-) -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 13:42:59 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 06:42:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 In-Reply-To: <20200902211627.Horde.-_Mnoa_dm0g2Q5gVDFyQHai@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200902211627.Horde.-_Mnoa_dm0g2Q5gVDFyQHai@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <002e01d681f8$243abcb0$6cb03610$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 Quoting Henry Rivera: > On Sep 2, 2020, at 10:12 PM, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat > wrote: >> >> and only infected 260 new cases > > > Maybe. This population is very hard to track... Bikers are diverse I recognize, but the portion that > wants to avoid government intrusion is probably bigger than other > subcultures/groups. Based on my experience with bikers... > Do people agree or think I?m off base? I am speculating and can?t > claim I?ve interacted with a representative sample. >...Very good points all. I do admit my prognostication was perhaps overly-optimistic in consideration of how "off the grid" a lot of these guys are...Stuart LaForge _______________________________________________ Sure but we are talking about two different things. I know the case rate is questionable and subject to error. But the death rate is not. The coroner has kits that are tuned to accept a high false positive but not false negative. That makes sense: there is no harm if a corpse is identified as a false positive when it was actually healthy... eh... when it would have been healthy had not his enraged bride bashed his skull with a ball bat. But there is harm if the kit returns a false negative when special handling is needed to prevent risk to the coroner. Result: the test kits the coroners use are tuned to accept false positives but not to accept false negatives. Those kits aren't used for living patients because they use tissue you can't get to without cutting their heads open. Patients don't like it when doctors want to cut their heads open. So we use the cotton swabs and get as far back in the nose as possible, which is better than nothing. The kits used for living patients are more balanced with respect to false positive and false negative, for good reason: there is harm either way. There is a consequence to all this: nurses don't trust the results. They have kits from all over, they aren't told the source (intentionally (because it is all part of huge study on source reliability.)) They have seen the same patient tested at the same time with two kits from different sources returning opposite results. My own doctor advised me to stand down for now. So I have never been tested. In any case... Our biker experiment isn't about cases, it's about fatalities, because those are less ambiguous. By random chance, never mind covid or enraged biker brides with a blunt instrument and the eagerness to use it on the cheating bastard, just by random chance, in any group of half a million people we should be seeing about one fatality of or with covid per day. But we are not. So why are we not? Also note I disregarded their more advanced age, which would have suggested about half again higher than one fatality a day, but never mind that for now. We should be seeing about one a day. We are not. That signal is missing in action. So... why are we not? Virus afraid of big ugly tattooed biker types going for the nearby students instead? Vitamin D production from extra sunlight on bare skin? Virus somehow getting trapped inside masks? Indoor ventilating recirculating infected air? Public toilet seats? Motorcycle engine noise somehow breaks the virus' concentration? The most plausible explanation I see so far is the sunlight and fresh outdoor air somehow helps protect proles. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 14:37:31 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 10:37:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 8:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63 > Now I understand why certain politicians have remained healthy, at least physically. John K Clark > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 14:59:30 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 07:59:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 In-Reply-To: <20200902212819.Horde.uSW_RnQOlzGWmvwJ2vcl7aK@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200902212819.Horde.uSW_RnQOlzGWmvwJ2vcl7aK@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <004501d68202$d3f7b4a0$7be71de0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat Sent: Wednesday, September 2, 2020 9:28 PM To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org Cc: Stuart LaForge Subject: Re: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 Quoting Spike: > The scary part: if getting out in the sun helps protect from covid, > nearly everything we have done to combat covid was wrong. Not just > wrong, it was pi radians wrong. >...What?!? You question the wisdom of hiding huddled in our caves to protect ourselves from a mutated bat-virus? ;-) >...But yes, Spike, I agree that sunlight played in a role in protecting many of the bikers. The UV-radiation in direct sunlight would destroy most viruses because it mucks up their genomes which is much of what the payload of a virion is. Also considering they were bikers alcohol might have played some small role also. Stuart LaForge _______________________________________________ {Please you read nothing else in this breezy commentary, do go to the last paragraph. The important stuff is down there, thanks. sj} Sure Stuart but you run the risk of agreeing with something that could get us kicked over to the ExI-politics group. I always heard it was a specific brand of bleach rather than alcohol, but in any case... that alcohol business very well might have played a role, and they do have plenty of that flowing at Sturgis, plenty. Hard to say however, for the Sturgis crowd is just as likely to imbibe in similar quantities at home as well as on a bike trip. I dunno. Regarding UV wrecking the virus genome, I am thinking about capillaries beneath the skin being irradiated by some frequency band from the sun as a possibility but a secondary one. We have heard that a common feature of covid fatalities had vitamin D deficiency or depletion. This was one of the early observations which led people to scramble for the vitamin tablets way back in March (the local pharmacy sold out of them) however... we know that eating vitamin D pills may or may not help all that much. It doesn't necessarily absorb from the gut in the right chemical. The pills are better than nothing. But D production in the skin from sunlight is way better. OK then. We know that about half of the covid fatalities are from nursing home patients. No mystery, they are old and sick. There is that of course, but what else? They are tightly packed. Got that too. Anything else? JA! They seldom go outdoors. That is why nursing home patients get that ghostly pale skin: it never sees sun. So... of course many of the covid fatalities have vitamin D depletion: they are living in skin which once saw sun, but now does not. Many of those beleaguered patients do not even have the option of going outdoors because they are in lockdown. Think about it Stuart: elderly patients, even those who know the door code and can go outside, often do not, for good reason: ah, nice warm sunshine, fall asleep in the wheelchair as old people are known to do, lobster sunburn in under an hour from exposure of skin unaccustomed to such abuse, many do not repeat that error. Perhaps if the nursing home staff took the patients out every day and gave them half an hour of sunshine, no more, no less, they would get sufficient vitamin D. One way or another, here's the important observation: had Sturgis been a superspreader event, we damn sure would have heard about it. If it had been a normal spreader, with numbers similar to their stay-at-home non-rallying neighbors, then we would be seeing about one fatality per day. Ja? So... what if it is a sub-spreader? If the rally crowd gets less covid than the stay-at-home neighbors, would we hear about it? What if the covid fatality rate in the bikers is waaaaaaayyyy the hell lower than the homers, perhaps by an order of magnitude, would we hear about it? How? Do the medics know about this? How? spike From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 15:12:23 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 08:12:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <004d01d68204$a13f2b40$e3bd81c0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 8:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat > wrote: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63 >?Now I understand why certain politicians have remained healthy, at least physically. John K Clark I read that article end to end and saw nothing about politicians anywhere. The comment itself explains why we have a separate list for that kind of commentary however. In John?s article, I found this: Interestingly, Jacobson?s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19. The vitamin is readily available over the counter, and around 20% of the population is deficient. If indeed the vitamin proves effective at reducing the severity of bradykinin storms, it could be an easy, relatively safe way to reduce the severity of the virus? OK then. From what I have heard, the vitamin pills increase the vitamin D level in the blood but it takes a while to build up. On the other hand, vitamin D production in the skin from sunlight raises the vitamin D level very quickly. I don?t have the references for that. But if the bikers felt the sunshine on their way out to Sturgis, hot, dry country out there, lose the clothes, feel the wind and all that, perhaps their vitamin D level which had been low from spending their days in the office is raised quickly, body is exposed but can fight back, symptoms are mild if they catch? Takeaway: if Sturgis is a conspicuous sub-spreader event, we gotta lotta splainin to do. Don?t brush this off please: there is apparently a big important signal hiding here and we scientific types know about it. My friends, we gotta lotta splainin to do. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 15:13:58 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 16:13:58 +0100 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <007101d681a7$768b23c0$63a16b40$@rainier66.com> References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> <007101d681a7$768b23c0$63a16b40$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, 3 Sep 2020 at 05:08, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > The reason I mention it: the most striking feature of my biker friend was his leathery skin on his face and hands. If his sleeves rode up, one could see his skin looked normal elsewhere. But that face and those hands had seen a lot of sun in 83 years. > > If sunlight offers some protection from death by covid, that would explain why the southern hemisphere was delayed, and why New York was hit so hard: their governors demanded shelter in place as well, and they did make it sound like there was a law requiring New Yorkers to stay indoors and die inside their own homes. > > Ideas please? > _______________________________________________ South Africa has a surprisingly low rate of Covid deaths, about seven times lower than in the UK. They can't understand why, because the crowded poverty-stricken unsanitary living conditions of most of the population should be ideal for virus spread. Some suggestions are under-counting and a young population with far fewer old people. South Africa has lots of sunshine of course. The favourite suggestion seems to be that the crowded conditions mean that previously everyone has had many colds and flu coronavirus infections and this has given them a level of protection against Covid-19. BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 18:38:45 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 14:38:45 -0400 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 In-Reply-To: <20200902212819.Horde.uSW_RnQOlzGWmvwJ2vcl7aK@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200902212819.Horde.uSW_RnQOlzGWmvwJ2vcl7aK@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 12:30 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *I agree that sunlight played in a role in protecting many of the > bikers. * Trump kindly provided a way to test that hypothesis by monitoring the health of his 1500 unmask followers who were packed together on the White House lawn listening to him give a 70 minute political speech AT NIGHT. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 19:47:18 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 14:47:18 -0500 Subject: [ExI] for Will Message-ID: Will, I sent a link to a neuroscience paper the other day and no one has responded to it. Can you take a look at it when you have the time? I have a feeling that it is highly important - unconscious learning is a new one to me. I may have vast implications for learning. Spike and I had a go at it and it's out of our league. Takes more than smarts. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 20:27:35 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 13:27:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again Message-ID: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 12:30 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat > wrote: >> I agree that sunlight played in a role in protecting many of the bikers? Stuart >?Trump ? John K Clark Politics, disregard all. And that? is why we have a separate exile list. After all this time, we finally got a dataset with no political influence anywhere to be found. We finally have an opportunity to study an actual valuable dataset, untouched by the corrupting influence of politics. Do let us not struggle to somehow inject that corrupting influence. John what do you think somehow protected those bikers? We need our big thinkers on this question. All of our big thinkers, this is a huge signal here, enormous. It is all science. It is a big dataset. It is being carefully controlled and reported. We have one biker covid death so far in the entire month, when we should have seen about one per day since about the ides of August. Stuart, if it really is as simple as sunlight on the skin, is not this a remarkable and in a way simultaneously alarming and reassuring signal? Sunshine is free. There is no risk. Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we need another test, what test? How? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 21:41:30 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 14:41:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! Message-ID: Adrian Tymes wrote: > Keith: might you be interested in writing up your understanding of how to do solar power satellites for these guys? The US Department of Defense drops billions on projects like nobody else. Unfortunately, I don't have a solution. For microwave optice reasons, the size of a power satellite optimizes around 5 GW. The demand of a big forward base is around 5 MW, so we are talking about a scale mismatch of around 1000 to one. Perhaps one approach would be to install a full scale power satellite and rectenna and sell any power the forward base could not use to the locals. Make a profit center out of a forward base. Keith From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 22:08:42 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 18:08:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020, 4:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Stuart, if it really is as simple as sunlight on the skin, is not this a > remarkable and in a way simultaneously alarming and reassuring signal? > Sunshine is free. There is no risk. > > Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we > need another test, what test? How? > I doubt it's just sunlight. I do wonder if the group known as "bikers" (or "bikers who attend Sturgis") are sufficiently homogenous in preventive/protective behaviors. Is the habitual long ride created a selection bias that this population is not as susceptible to the health conditions that would otherwise have been covid-exploitive? This reminds me of the suggestion that people who own horses generally live longer than those who don't. The correlation is interesting, but it's the extra income that affords the house that also affords healthcare and better diet. So is it the motorcycle that affords covid protection or something else that bikers have in common? > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 22:12:49 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 15:12:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 2:43 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian Tymes wrote: > > Keith: might you be interested in writing up your understanding of how to > do solar power satellites for these guys? The US Department of Defense > drops billions on projects like nobody else. > > Unfortunately, I don't have a solution. For microwave optice reasons, > the size of a power satellite optimizes around 5 GW. The demand of a > big forward base is around 5 MW, so we are talking about a scale > mismatch of around 1000 to one. > So they want something that is technically inefficient. It is possible to make something technically inefficient if that is what the customer will pay for, no? No protests about "but it is inefficient". Is it possible, or is it not possible, to make a less-than-optimally-efficient 5 MW power satellite? Because that is what they want, inefficiency and all. The military pays for many things that are inefficient, or even of negative efficiency. Why not divert funds that would go into something even less efficient? (You know they will if you take no action here.) > Perhaps one approach would be to install a full scale power satellite > and rectenna and sell any power the forward base could not use to the > locals. Make a profit center out of a forward base. > That is an option too. But I suspect they would prefer a less-than-optimally-efficient 5 MW power satellite. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 22:32:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 15:32:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat >?Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we need another test, what test? How? >?I doubt it's just sunlight. Contributing factor? I fear it is wishful thinking on my part. >?Is the habitual long ride created a selection bias that this population is not as susceptible to the health conditions that would otherwise have been covid-exploitive?... I sure woulda thought of that population segment is more susceptible rather than less. >?So is it the motorcycle that affords covid protection or something else that bikers have in common? Hard to say Mike. I can see some pre-selection of people healthy enough to ride a long distance. But consider these numbers. The reports are coming in now, with what looks like 260 total infections at Sturgis. If we use about 50k new cases per day was a US average at that time. During the 7 day rally, it is reasonable to expect about 350k infections in the US. So any randomly chosen half million Americans should see about 500 infections in that week, ja? Reasoning: there are about 330 megaproles in the USA. Take half a million randomly chosen Americans, we should see about 500 infections that week, perhaps a few more, but close enough. We are seeing about 260 from the rally, about half the average of the USA. So if we should expect from any randomly-chosen half megaprole, we expect about one fatality per day. We are seeing one so far, for the entire month of August. This looks to me like the infection rate is half the expected value and the fatality rate is less than a tenth the expected value, even ignoring the age factor and the non-mask wearing. Interesting aside: the way the mainstream media is talking about that one Sturgis fatality: oh swoon, such a tragedy, so unnecessary is that fatality. But they are not celebrating the other 10-20 who would have caught had they stayed home. Do their lives not matter? Far too many people cannot or will not go thru the calculation for how many cases and how many deaths we should expect in any random sample of half a million. Has anyone seen a news story celebrating that low case rate and low death rate? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 22:52:15 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 17:52:15 -0500 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: There were way too many bikers to fit into the bars there, so most of the time they spent outside. Ditto for filling motels. Maybe they used tents? So I agree that being outside may be part of it. As for a test, let's take another group that is spending their time outside: football players. I do not know what they are doing inside - wearing masks probably, unlike the average students who are getting the virus big time. So if you can find a way to track the virus in that population, it might confirm your suspicions about the bikers. bill w On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 3:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *John Clark via extropy-chat > > On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 12:30 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > >> *I agree that sunlight played in a role in protecting many of the > bikers? Stuart * > > > > >?Trump ? John K Clark > > > > > > Politics, disregard all. And that? is why we have a separate exile list. > > > > After all this time, we finally got a dataset with no political influence > anywhere to be found. We finally have an opportunity to study an actual > valuable dataset, untouched by the corrupting influence of politics. Do > let us not struggle to somehow inject that corrupting influence. > > > > John what do you think somehow protected those bikers? We need our big > thinkers on this question. All of our big thinkers, this is a huge signal > here, enormous. It is all science. It is a big dataset. It is being > carefully controlled and reported. We have one biker covid death so far in > the entire month, when we should have seen about one per day since about > the ides of August. > > > > Stuart, if it really is as simple as sunlight on the skin, is not this a > remarkable and in a way simultaneously alarming and reassuring signal? > Sunshine is free. There is no risk. > > > > Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we > need another test, what test? How? > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 23:20:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 16:20:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <019801d68248$dd9da280$98d8e780$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again >?There were way too many bikers to fit into the bars there, so most of the time they spent outside. Ditto for filling motels. Maybe they used tents? So I agree that being outside may be part of it? Most of what happens at Sturgis happens outdoors. There are not nearly enough accommodations for indoor sleeping. There are no new ones being built: they would need to charge 5000 bucks a night to carry the place until the bikers return next year. It is camping on the ground. >?As for a test, let's take another group that is spending their time outside: football players? That gets us only part of the way there. The football players go home at the end of the day, rather than sleep on the ground. >?I do not know what they are doing inside - wearing masks probably, unlike the average students who are getting the virus big time? bill w >From the Sturgis photos I saw, I don?t recall anyone wearing a mask. I have long suspected those don?t really do all that much when everyone is outdoors. The pre-selection of healthy people is the best alternative argument I can think of: those who were not feeling well called it off, didn?t go. Granny isn?t feeling well, she says: Brutus, you go on without me honey and enjoy the ride if I hear you were cheating greet the guys from your Army division with those college harlots have a great time I will bash your damn brains in while you are asleep and do pass along my greetings you will never know what hit you to their wives from me I was what hit you enjoy the good company and ride safe sweetheart! It would be one of those cheerful sendoffs with a warning message big tough biker dudes know to not ignore. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Thu Sep 3 23:33:24 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 19:33:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? In-Reply-To: <004d01d68204$a13f2b40$e3bd81c0$@rainier66.com> References: <004d01d68204$a13f2b40$e3bd81c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 11:14 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > OK then. From what I have heard, the vitamin pills increase the vitamin D > level in the blood but it takes a while to build up. On the other hand, > vitamin D production in the skin from sunlight raises the vitamin D level > very quickly. I don?t have the references for that. > > > > But if the bikers felt the sunshine on their way out to Sturgis, hot, dry > country out there, lose the clothes, feel the wind and all that, perhaps > their vitamin D level which had been low from spending their days in the > office is raised quickly, body is exposed but can fight back, symptoms are > mild if they catch? > > > > Takeaway: if Sturgis is a conspicuous sub-spreader event, we gotta lotta > splainin to do. Don?t brush this off please: there is apparently a big > important signal hiding here and we scientific types know about it. My > friends, we gotta lotta splainin to do. > Significant vitamin D production in the skin requires a large area of skin exposed to the sun. Bikers aren't known for that. Vitamin D production also decreases with age. Bikers *are* known for that. I'm skeptical, but it *is* possible that even old Harley riders have higher levels of vitamin D than average. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 3 23:46:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 16:46:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Mouth breathers less susceptible to covid? In-Reply-To: References: <004d01d68204$a13f2b40$e3bd81c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <01b401d6824c$6e4a0b40$4ade21c0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dave Sill via extropy-chat >?Takeaway: if Sturgis is a conspicuous sub-spreader event, we gotta lotta splainin to do. Don?t brush this off please: there is apparently a big important signal hiding here and we scientific types know about it. My friends, we gotta lotta splainin to do. >?Significant vitamin D production in the skin requires a large area of skin exposed to the sun? That?s right. >?Bikers aren't known for that?. This is Sturgis. Hot, dry, open-minded. >?Vitamin D production also decreases with age? They compensate. >? I'm skeptical, but it is possible that even old Harley riders have higher levels of vitamin D than average. -Dave Did you mean when they left home? Why would they have more than average? Idea: perhaps skin that isn?t normally exposed is more efficient at vitamin D production than that which sees a lot of sun? The rest of the time, the Sturgis people are in the office, dressed as ordinary people, then they cut loose for a coupla weeks every summer, show off their tattoos that the office people have never seen. All that pale skin exposed for the first time in 11 months, vitamin D goes up, result: half the expected infection rate and less than a tenth the fatality rate? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 01:55:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 18:55:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sat killers Message-ID: <022101d6825e$6fd11b40$4f7351c0$@rainier66.com> Much to my surprise, the University of California system went ahead and disallowed the use of the SAT and ACT as criteria for admissions. They haven't really said what if anything will be used to decide who is admitted to the UC system now. Any ideas? The number of clubs one belongs to? Are the UC schools even interested in getting the smartest students anymore? In any case, let us extrapolate, shall we? The graduate schools will still want the best and brightest, ja? And of course the employers will want the ones who will make them money. How will they get that? Can applicants use SAT scores on a resume? How about GRE scores? If universities stop using the SAT, then where does it go from there? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 04:32:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 21:32:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com Sent: Thursday, September 3, 2020 3:32 PM To: 'ExI chat list' Cc: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] bikers again > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat >>>?Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we need another test, what test? How? >>?I doubt it's just sunlight. >?Contributing factor? I fear it is wishful thinking on my part?spike The uncertainty period on reporting for August ended today, so I went back and looked at some numbers for August in two counties in which I take interest: Santa Clara county where I live and Los Angeles county where some people I care about live. If we take the reported August covid fatalities in Santa Clara and scale that down to half million, I am getting about 12 covid fatalities per half million in August. Los Angeles is harder hit, with their many problems down that way. They are coming up to about 40 covid fatalities per half million August. The half million bikers at Sturgis count their collective August fatality rate at? 1. There is plenty of sunshine in LA this time of year. I had another idea, a kind of slightly wilder one, but vaguely plausible perhaps. When one goes to Sturgis, showers are hard to come by, but since one is sleeping on the ground anyway, there isn?t much point really, is there? People don?t ride in for the luxury accommodations (if so, this is their first trip there and they will learn soon.) What if? people began to get ripe, even before they arrive? Then everyone will naturally give everyone else plenty of social distance just because of the aroma, ja? Starting about now, there is time to have been to the rally, stayed healthy and distanced from the other stinking bikers, come home healthy, showered, caught covid from a homer, count as a new covid case who went to Sturgis, then perish of covid as a Sturgis goer. After about today, there was plenty of time to catch and die after the fact, but still be able to muck up the Sturgis data. It might be they did catch at Sturgis, and are still living, but after about now, it becomes ambiguous if they caught there or if they were post-Sturgis fatalities who went to Sturgis. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 05:41:27 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2020 22:41:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] sat killers In-Reply-To: <022101d6825e$6fd11b40$4f7351c0$@rainier66.com> References: <022101d6825e$6fd11b40$4f7351c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 6:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Much to my surprise, the University of California system went ahead and > disallowed the use of the SAT and ACT as criteria for admissions. They > haven?t really said what if anything will be used to decide who is admitted > to the UC system now. > > > > Any ideas? The number of clubs one belongs to? > Whether or not this was the intention, the criteria that will be used - because they are the only criteria that remain - are the very subjective criteria that standardized testing was meant to eliminate. Unstated (or, rarely, stated) racial and gender biases. Backchannel favors and bribes. And other things that don't actually correlate to academic ability. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 12:03:22 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 08:03:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 4:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >?Trump ? John K Clark > > > > *> Politics, disregard all. * > I don't think anyone on this list needs your help to figure out what to disregard. And how the hell was that political?! A scientific hypothesis has been proposed, namely that sunlight makes large gatherings of people safe from COVID-19 even if they're not wearing facemasks, and I mentioned that there is already a control experiment in progress that can test that hypothesis. Is the very word "Trump" now forbidden from being uttered on the Extropian list regardless of context? *> John what do you think somehow protected those bikers?* I don't know, and nobody will ever know if we don't do experiments to find out. For ethical reasons it's often difficult to perform rigorous scientific tests (which need control experiments) with deadly viruses, but in this case Trump has already provided us with one. Let me ask a question of my own. Family physicians are infected with COVID-19 more than the general population, but frontline physicians in hospital settings where facemasks are mandatory deal with patients sick with COVID-19 constantly, and yet they actually have a lower rate of infection than the general population. What do you think protected those physicians even in that dangerous situation? Workers in hospital settings may be better protected from COVID-19 than the general population John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 13:27:09 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 06:27:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> August with or of covid fatalites per half million LA county: 40. Santa Clara county: 12. Sturgis: 1. Another possibility: it is over. Covid is over. Recall how SARS just ended? As I recall, it just went away. Or is mutated into a form which the people who caught it didn?t realize that is what it was and didn?t get very sick, so they didn?t go to the doctor or get tested. What if this one is that way, and people are no longer getting all those severe symptoms, the cases are mild, still testing positive for antibodies, but it produces mild symptoms now? If so, would we get a signal that looks like this? Reasoning: LA has a lot of sunshine, but it also has a looooootta lotta homeless people. Being homeless is a hard way to live. Homeless people die a lot. Often they are mentally ill, they drink out of rivers other homeless people are using as a toilet, many are on drugs, many are alcoholic, many are depressed or have other reasons to want to die. Diseases spread thru homeless communities for plenty of reasons. But the coroner counts them as covid with or have if the antibody test comes up positive. LA county has a lot of homeless. Santa Clara has way fewer, but some. Sturgis has none that I know of. What if we reached herd immunity in the US, but didn?t realize it because of the way we count our dead? Question please: does any here know anyone who died gasping for air in the hospital clearly of covid? Does anyone here know anyone or know the family of anyone who can verify any recent case, since about first of August, where it was clear that person caught covid and died of the symptoms we heard were killing people back in March and April? Or know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone? How can we get some kind of verification that these numbers are not an artifact of the way we are counting, mixing our withs and ofs? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 15:11:13 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 08:11:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] bikers again >?August with or of covid fatalites per half million LA county: 40. Santa Clara county: 12. Sturgis: 1. >?Another possibility: it is over. Covid is over. So? if we postulate that covid is over, how would we recognize it? The obvious answer is that the new case rate would go toward zero, or certainly the OF or WITH covid fatality rate would crater. Ja? So? would it? The way we are counting it now, is that what it would look like if we did get to herd immunity? How will we know when covid is over? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 15:46:39 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 11:46:39 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 11:13 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > So? if we postulate that covid is over, how would we recognize it? The > obvious answer is that the new case rate would go toward zero, or certainly > the OF or WITH covid fatality rate would crater. Ja? > https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ It's on the decline--not for the first time--but not over by a long stretch. So? would it? The way we are counting it now, is that what it would look > like if we did get to herd immunity? > > > > How will we know when covid is over? > The CDC will let us know. :-) -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 16:17:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 09:17:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> From: Dave Sill Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 11:13 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >?So? if we postulate that covid is over? certainly the OF or WITH covid fatality rate would crater. Ja? https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ >?It's on the decline--not for the first time--but not over by a long stretch? I have seen that graphic 100 times, and it always brings to mind the comments of the Belgian leader. She claimed these nations? covid numbers cannot be compared with each other because they are being counted differently. She is looking more right all the time. >?How will we know when covid is over? >?The CDC will let us know. :-) -Dave Ah, thanks Dave, I feel so much? em? better? now that I know that. There was an article in the Washington Post which contained this comment: Unlike ? protests in late May and early June that took place outdoors, the Sturgis gathering was attended by hundreds of thousands of people who ?spent hours and hours in bars, tattoo parlors, casinos and other entertainment venues where much of the transmission occurred,? said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota?s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy? OK, so ja, we know, bars, casinos, tattoo parlors, indoor rock concerts that sorta thing. We know. That?s what Sturgis is all about. In a similar article, not by Osterholm, an immunologist who studies this sort of thing was focusing on the Sturgis dataset. His motive was different from mine perhaps, but not really. We both want to know if Sturgis would be a super-spreader, I have biker friends who went, people I advised to stay back, people who urged me to come. OK so Sturgis wasn?t a super-spreader or apparently even a nominal spreader, but we were so caught off guard by that sub-spreader signal. A prominent ?immunologist? didn?t seem to recognize it. But I did. Way down here in the nowheres, little microscopic tiny spike asked the obvious question: what is the case rate and fatality rate vs the expected value? My Extropian friends, big thinkers, I ask you the same question. Take the numbers from your county, or state, or anywhere where you have access to daily data. Scale it to the expected value for the month of August per half million please. Report your results. I already did Los Angeles county and Santa Clara county. Do use a county with at least half a million, for I don?t trust extrapolation up. LA: 40. Santa Clara: 12. Sturgis: 1. So this ?immunologist? went on and on about this guy who apparently caught covid at the rally and died, how needless, how tragic, oh swoon, how could we have allowed this rally under such dangerous conditions as this, woe, woe is me, and so forth. Needless? Well hell, how could ?we? have stopped that bike rally? Could we? Spoiler alert: nooooooo, we couldn?t. That?s what made this dataset special: no politics mucking up the results. How often does THAT happen? Has it ever before this? The ?immunologist? demonstrated zero recognition, this ?immunologist? failed to recognize the kind of signal that real immunologists (who are actually doing real immunology (correctly)) and even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore: Why was that Sturgis case rate about half the expected value and the death rate about? ? ? a tenth? Did covid mutate into something that most catchers never noticed? Anyone? Anyone? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 18:17:55 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 14:17:55 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: My coworker?s mom and grandma died on ventilators about 2 weeks ago from Covid, which my coworker also had (but lived) SR Ballard > On Sep 4, 2020, at 9:27 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > August with or of covid fatalites per half million > > LA county: 40. > Santa Clara county: 12. > Sturgis: 1. > > Another possibility: it is over. Covid is over. > > Recall how SARS just ended? As I recall, it just went away. Or is mutated into a form which the people who caught it didn?t realize that is what it was and didn?t get very sick, so they didn?t go to the doctor or get tested. What if this one is that way, and people are no longer getting all those severe symptoms, the cases are mild, still testing positive for antibodies, but it produces mild symptoms now? > > If so, would we get a signal that looks like this? > > Reasoning: LA has a lot of sunshine, but it also has a looooootta lotta homeless people. Being homeless is a hard way to live. Homeless people die a lot. Often they are mentally ill, they drink out of rivers other homeless people are using as a toilet, many are on drugs, many are alcoholic, many are depressed or have other reasons to want to die. Diseases spread thru homeless communities for plenty of reasons. > > But the coroner counts them as covid with or have if the antibody test comes up positive. > > LA county has a lot of homeless. Santa Clara has way fewer, but some. Sturgis has none that I know of. > > What if we reached herd immunity in the US, but didn?t realize it because of the way we count our dead? > > Question please: does any here know anyone who died gasping for air in the hospital clearly of covid? Does anyone here know anyone or know the family of anyone who can verify any recent case, since about first of August, where it was clear that person caught covid and died of the symptoms we heard were killing people back in March and April? Or know anyone who knows anyone who knows anyone? How can we get some kind of verification that these numbers are not an artifact of the way we are counting, mixing our withs and ofs? > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 18:21:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 11:21:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again >?My coworker?s mom and grandma died on ventilators about 2 weeks ago from Covid, which my coworker also had (but lived) SR Ballard Hi SR, so sorry to hear, our condolences to your colleague. Thanks for the info. Ventilators, oh dear, they are still using those? They went outta style quickly around here. Were your colleagues symptoms severe? How severe? Did he or she come back to work afterwards? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 18:39:17 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 11:39:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com >? even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore: >?Why was that Sturgis case rate about half the expected value and the death rate about? ? ? a tenth? Did covid mutate into something that most catchers never noticed? spike OK I have an idea, but I am double-wary, triple wary of the very real phenomenon of wishful thinking influencing actual thinking. Catch me please in this if possible. I want to catch me too. I consider that helping me catch me. What if?the low-initial viral load exposure theory is right. The notion (if I understand it) is that if a person has never been exposed to a virus at all, but suddenly is exposed to a lot of it, such as if someone sneezes at the grocery store and the hapless prole walks thru the particulate cloud, that would be a huge initial exposure, lotta virus right where it thrives best (nose and lungs) body?s defenses are overwhelmed before it knows what hit it. We get that part. Killed a lotta proles back last spring. >From what I understand, if the initial exposure is very light, the body has more time to recognize there are bad guys about, arm up, create antibodies and so forth, which would explain why some people are exposed but never develop symptoms, or develop only mild ones: their systems have seen those bad guys before and know what to do. OK then, if that theory is right, imagine what is likely happening everywhere: the background viral load is gradually rising. If people have an immunity because of low initial exposure and successful immune response, then subsequent exposure would allow them to carry some low-level of active virus, while they go right on about their business, spreading low levels of virus everywhere. This would cause more and more proles to initially contact the virus in very low concentrations, which would alert the system in a way that immune system is likely to win the battle. This would result in people who later came into high concentration exposures to not get sick, or if so, not seriously. My cousin and her husband both caught, she was never noticeably ill, he was sick but it didn?t amount to much, not as painful as a typical flu according to him. She is a nurse. Low initial exposure response? She is 65, he is 74. If that notion is right, it might explain why the bikers didn?t catch much and died less: enough of them have already had exposure to low levels, and as a consequence, their immune system response was sufficient to stop the virus at this point, from gradually rising background exposure long before they ever left home. If this is true, we could have a similar gathering with similar numbers now, never mind the bikes and the sunshine and the guzzling of disinfectant (favorite brand Budweiser) using normal people, and the will not catch or die either, for none that would be the real mechanism which caused all those bikers to not die. Is this all wishful thinking? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 18:51:11 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 11:51:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! Message-ID: Adrian Tymes wrote: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 2:43 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian Tymes wrote: > > Keith: might you be interested in writing up your understanding of how to > do solar power satellites for these guys? The US Department of Defense > drops billions on projects like nobody else. > >> Unfortunately, I don't have a solution. For microwave optice reasons, >> the size of a power satellite optimizes around 5 GW. The demand of a >> big forward base is around 5 MW, so we are talking about a scale >> mismatch of around 1000 to one. >So they want something that is technically inefficient. It is possible to >make something technically inefficient if that is what the customer will >pay for, no? >No protests about "but it is inefficient". Is it possible, or is it not >possible, to make a less-than-optimally-efficient 5 MW power satellite? Of course it is technically possible. A 5 watt power satellite would be possible, but even the military is going to be upset at the cost per kWh. I have not worked out the numbers, but as a guess, the cost of power would go up by something like 100 times as the scale shrinks by 1000. That would make the cost of power a few dollars a kWh. I think the scale mismatch problem is so bad that it is not worth looking into. But if you are interested (and know how to do it) I am willing to check your Excel model if you want to create one. I think Seth Potter's 2009 paper has the math you would need. Such a power satellite would be very different from those considered in the past. To decrease the spot size on the ground by a factor of ten requires enlarging the transmitter in GEO by the same factor. So a 1 km transmitting antenna becomes 10 km, 100 times the area. The much lower power density would prevent thermal problems. However, ten km diameter is 78.539.816 square meters. If you can get the mass down to a kg/m^2, then this object would mass around 79 million tons. At $100/kg, the lift cost alone would be about $7.9 T or around 1.5 B/kW. The cost of power by LCOE would run around $200 per kWh. (Assuming it ran for 20 years without interruption). >Because that is what they want, inefficiency and all. If you think these numbers are acceptable to the military, and you want to sell them on the idea, I can introduce you to Paul Jaffe. Keith From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 19:19:02 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 12:19:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <041d01d682f0$4037f7e0$c0a7e7a0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com > >? even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore? That bike rally is only one of two things that looks like a huge systematic oversight on the part of the immunology community. We have seen covid case demographics by age, by race and so on, enlightening stuff, because it allows one to estimate one?s risk by looking at one?s own demographic. It determines whether one wants to invest long in Apple or have a seat, bend down, kiss one?s ass goodbye, adios amigos. OK well, we already know about the age skew, the old are far more likely to perish and all that. We get that. One super important demographic or factor easily isolated is? nursing home or non-nursing home. Reasoning: Santa Clara County does offer that information, and to no one?s surprise? nursing home and long-term care facilities account for about half the fatalities. OK so? you might say, OK no problem, we can deal. But if we do, that whole age-bracket by decade covid death graph looks a lot different. Reason: we see the 90s and 100s are really hammered. No mystery there. But if you take everyone you know in those age categories, many of the 90 somethings and damn near all, well all 100 and up that I ever heard of, live in a nursing home. OK then, no problem, we can deal. If we do, we realize that it doesn?t look neeeeearly so grim for our 80 somethings and 90 somethings who do not live in a nursing home. Reasoning: we damn well know that nursing homes are dangerous places. I do have first hand knowledge of those places, and I would cheerfully unknow what I know were that possible: I would intentionally become dumber on that particular topic. I have been there, hell I worked there. I heard, I saw, I remember: nearly eeeeveryone at the nursing home is old (even by my standards.) Nursing homes are dangerous. I can sugar-coat it if you wish, and if so, stop reading here, sincerely, spike. If you are still reading, I will tell ya, I would estimate your half life in a nursing home at about 4 years. If you end up in the Azheimer?s wing, we will just call you Ruth, short for Ruthenium 106 because your half life there is about a year if you are lucky, and hate to tells ya, good chance ya ain?t going to see age 106. Hey, I warned ya in the last paragraph. OK, so we know that nursing homes are dangerous places (it isn?t their fault (people go there when the can?t take care of themselves anymore.)) We know that nursing homes are older (even by my standards) people. We know that nursing home fatalities account for about half the covid OF and WITHs. My point: if we take those as a separate category (and we should) then it doesn?t look nearly as scary for the seniors among who do not live in one. It looks way scarier for the seniors among us who do live in a long term care facility. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 19:25:08 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 20:25:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, 4 Sep 2020 at 19:41, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > OK then, if that theory is right, imagine what is likely happening everywhere: the background viral load is gradually rising. If people have an immunity because of low initial exposure and successful immune response, then subsequent exposure would allow them to carry some low-level of active virus, while they go right on about their business, spreading low levels of virus everywhere. This would cause more and more proles to initially contact the virus in very low concentrations, which would alert the system in a way that immune system is likely to win the battle. This would result in people who later came into high concentration exposures to not get sick, or if so, not seriously. > If this is true, we could have a similar gathering with similar numbers now, never mind the bikes and the sunshine and the guzzling of disinfectant (favorite brand Budweiser) using normal people, and the will not catch or die either, for none that would be the real mechanism which caused all those bikers to not die. > > Is this all wishful thinking? > spike > _______________________________________________ That sounds like herd immunity. Quote: Herd immunity, or community immunity, is when a large part of the population of an area is immune to a specific disease. If enough people are resistant to the cause of a disease, such as a virus or bacteria, it has nowhere to go. While not every single individual may be immune, the group as a whole has protection. This is because there are fewer high-risk people overall. The infection rates drop, and the disease peters out. ------------------- It is a good end result, but how many more people will die first? BillK From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 19:35:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 12:35:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <043a01d682f2$98f33320$cad99960$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ That sounds like herd immunity. >...While not every single individual may be immune, the group as a whole has protection... ------------------- >...It is a good end result, but how many more people will die first? BillK _______________________________________________ BillK, that might depend on how we count them. We count them differently here. spike From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 20:08:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 13:08:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <041d01d682f0$4037f7e0$c0a7e7a0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> <041d01d682f0$4037f7e0$c0a7e7a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <046301d682f7$1705aff0$45110fd0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com > >>? even motivated amateurs such as me, this signal we are puzzling over until our puzzlers are sore? >?That bike rally is only one of two things that looks like a huge systematic oversight on the part of the immunology community?spike With those two errors, overlooking the low death rate from Sturgis and the failure to break out nursing home deaths, I am emboldened to make the following comment which is not really intended to be harsh but maybe a little, about as harsh as I ever get. If the immunology community is able to spot two systematic errors in my rocket science, smart guys but with no technical expertise or specific training in my field, I would just pick the phone, call the range safety: Hi Colonel, spike here, hey would you do us all a favor and just blow that damn rocket to hell right there on the pad please? There is no point in dropping it into the sea, endangering perfectly good whales, risking innocent squid, confusing the plankton and so on. Just hit that big red button now, the others can go home in time for dinner, I will go out there and collect pieces of my career to sell to the scrap dealer. OK I have that outta my system and I will even suspend judgment a little longer on the Sturgis death dearth, give them a few more days to think it over, write scholarly articles and publish them, get interviewed on Immunology Today or wherever those reports show up. I don?t understand why they failed to break down the nursing home thing, scaring (and even introducing risk to) my elderly but non-nursing home friends unnecessarily, that was not right. If the immunology community had a big red command destruct button, I would be pointing at it now, asking them if there is a good reason to not mash it right now. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 20:25:52 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 16:25:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> He had mild cold symptoms and is back at work. SR Ballard > On Sep 4, 2020, at 2:21 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > From: SR Ballard > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again > > >?My coworker?s mom and grandma died on ventilators about 2 weeks ago from Covid, which my coworker also had (but lived) SR Ballard > > > > > Hi SR, so sorry to hear, our condolences to your colleague. Thanks for the info. > > Ventilators, oh dear, they are still using those? They went outta style quickly around here. > > Were your colleagues symptoms severe? How severe? Did he or she come back to work afterwards? > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 20:30:33 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 13:30:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> Message-ID: <047a01d682fa$3d9ea3d0$b8dbeb70$@rainier66.com> From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again >?He had mild cold symptoms and is back at work. SR Ballard Glad to hear he is OK. Do pass along our best wishes SR. From what I understand, he might have very low level of residual virus, which may lead to a lowish-risk opportunity to develop immunity in your office. But of course the theory might be wrong. I hope it is right. If so, no one else in your office will catch, or if so, it won?t amount to much. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 20:36:44 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 16:36:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <047a01d682fa$3d9ea3d0$b8dbeb70$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <047a01d682fa$3d9ea3d0$b8dbeb70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <8218D5CC-5B9D-4322-9D79-6A4418F37CB1@gmail.com> ?Office? ha. I work(ed) at a fast food restaurant. SR > On Sep 4, 2020, at 4:30 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > From: SR Ballard > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again > > >?He had mild cold symptoms and is back at work. > > SR Ballard > > > Glad to hear he is OK. Do pass along our best wishes SR. From what I understand, he might have very low level of residual virus, which may lead to a lowish-risk opportunity to develop immunity in your office. But of course the theory might be wrong. I hope it is right. If so, no one else in your office will catch, or if so, it won?t amount to much. > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 21:05:16 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 14:05:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <8218D5CC-5B9D-4322-9D79-6A4418F37CB1@gmail.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <047a01d682fa$3d9ea3d0$b8dbeb70$@rainier66.com> <8218D5CC-5B9D-4322-9D79-6A4418F37CB1@gmail.com> Message-ID: <049801d682ff$178fcde0$46af69a0$@rainier66.com> From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again ?Office? ha. I work(ed) at a fast food restaurant. SR SR, I worked at one of those places, hated it as much as you likely do. That restaurant is your office, ja? Any indoor work place is an office. For prisoners, that license plate stamping factory is their office, and they don?t like it either. EMTs have whirling lights atop their office, as they go to work at high speed to the tune of a shrieking siren. Those guys tend to like their offices however. It is an exciting place to work. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Fri Sep 4 21:12:27 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 17:12:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <046301d682f7$1705aff0$45110fd0$@rainier66.com> References: <046301d682f7$1705aff0$45110fd0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <3D6B6C76-9B51-4D50-BC8D-F6F99CF78917@alumni.virginia.edu> What does this refer to specifically? > On Sep 4, 2020, at 4:08 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > and the failure to break out nursing home deaths, From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 21:15:04 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 14:15:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] down by the riverside Message-ID: <04a901d68300$75e81130$61b83390$@rainier66.com> I have people I care about who live in Riverside County CA as well. I went looking at their data. It doesn?t separate nursing home covid fatalities either (Santa Clara is the only county I have found so far which does that.) I found a note on their site which explains how they counted the fatalities. From what I can tell, any person who has previously tested as a confirmed covid case who subsequently perishes counts as a covid fatality. If I understand that correctly, there is an accumulating risk of systematic overcount, because it takes in more and more recovered cases. Damn this is frustrating. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 21:29:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 14:29:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <3D6B6C76-9B51-4D50-BC8D-F6F99CF78917@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <046301d682f7$1705aff0$45110fd0$@rainier66.com> <3D6B6C76-9B51-4D50-BC8D-F6F99CF78917@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: <04c501d68302$7f4463d0$7dcd2b70$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Henry Rivera Sent: Friday, September 4, 2020 2:12 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: spike at rainier66.com Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again What does this refer to specifically? > On Sep 4, 2020, at 4:08 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > and the failure to break out nursing home deaths, Hi Henry, take all covid fatalities, separate all those who lived in a nursing home or long term care facility. List the numbers separately. Here's an example of where that is being done: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx This is useful information. The green bars are nursing homers. Looks like about half of the fatalities are there, and we already know the really super-annuated almost all live in a nursing home. But if we treat those as two separate groups and do our demographics similarly, the risk to older non-nursing homers isn't nearly as disturbing, and Henry there is a reason why I keep going on about that. Any distortion of the risk picture introduces new risks. For instance... my father's second cousin is one of my genealogy partners. He lives practically within walking distance of the hospital where I was born (he was born there too) and has never moved. It is a small hospital: everybody knows everybody there. When the covid emergency began, many regular customers stopped coming. My cousin continued but he isn't afraid of much (he faced the Viet Cong in 1963, a virus doesn't scare him.) Not enough customers, the hospital had to close its doors. He didn't re-establish contacts at the hospital over in the big city. His prescriptions ran out. Fluid built up around his heart, he wound up in the ER at the hospital he had previously refused to patronize, hoping for the best with his congestive heart failure. He survived after a really bad night hooked up to the old blibbity beepers (his term (wonderfully descriptive (not overly technical (but everyone here knows what he means.)))) But otherwise he would be an example of a patient who died OF covid WITHOUT covid. Distortion of the risk matrix introduces new risk. spike From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 21:36:24 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 14:36:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 11:53 AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > That would make the cost of power a few dollars a kWh. > For reliable, uninterruptible power at remote facilities that they don't need to refuel and only need to ship in a rectenna for (as opposed to a heavier generator)? Yeah, they'd pay that price. > I think the scale mismatch problem is so bad that it is not worth > looking into. But if you are interested (and know how to do it) I am > willing to check your Excel model if you want to create one. I think > Seth Potter's 2009 paper has the math you would need. > You know how to do it. That's why I'm asking you. > Such a power satellite would be very different from those considered > in the past. To decrease the spot size on the ground by a factor of > ten requires enlarging the transmitter in GEO by the same factor. So > a 1 km transmitting antenna becomes 10 km, 100 times the area. The > much lower power density would prevent thermal problems. > Or, same size spot on the ground, and just use a much lower power density. They can claim land if needed. If you think these numbers are acceptable to the military, and you > want to sell them on the idea, I can introduce you to Paul Jaffe. > No, the point is to get you or Paul to sell them on the idea. You (collectively) have the data necessary to do this sales job. I may have important pieces that you apparently do not, but I am not the one who can sell them on this. They want to talk to the experts directly, and that is you and Paul. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 22:03:09 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 15:03:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] down by the riverside In-Reply-To: <04a901d68300$75e81130$61b83390$@rainier66.com> References: <04a901d68300$75e81130$61b83390$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <04e401d68307$2d648360$882d8a20$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com >?I have people I care about who live in Riverside County CA as well. I went looking at their data. It doesn?t separate nursing home covid fatalities either (Santa Clara is the only county I have found so far which does that.)?Damn this is frustrating. spike I have a little homework assignment for data-enabled volunteers among us. If you live in a county of at least about half a million proles, go to your county health department website and see if they offer statistics such as covid fatalities per day, and if they break it out by nursing homers vs non. If so, there might be a graph that looks kinda like this, where the green bars are the homers and the blue nots: OK then, follow my reasoning please. If herd immunity is here or nigh, then we know what the covid death dashboard will do: the bars will get shorter and farther spaced. But think of the ratio of the homers (green) to nons (blue.) If my reasoning is correct, the early covid deaths should be mostly nons: the blue team gets it first and worst. But you can see there eventually it is pretty evenly balanced. So far that agrees with my understanding. But since we count the WITHs and OFs as the same, then later, if herd immunity is kicking in, most of the confirmed cases have long since been confirmed. The non-homers don?t die often. Of all my friends and acquaintances, none of them die often. Steve Van Sickle did, but none other that that fine lad. He apparently didn?t have covid (had he been a confirmed covid case, his cryonic suspension might have gone much better than it did (covid could have saved his future life? (oh we miss Steve (smart as a whip and a really nice gentleman he was.)))) In any case? nursing homers do die tragically often, and they are not going to give up that habit just because a known homer-killer has left the building. Over time, confirmed cases accumulate. If any fatality who was a confirmed covid case counts as a covid fatality, then herd immunity would result in that graph up there will eventually turn green. Now it is about equal, but the right side of that graph should be more homers than non-homers, so it should transition from blue to green. Reasoning: people continue to perish in nursing homes, even if the virus runs its course, but the non-homers wouldn?t as much. Smart amateur immunologists among us, does that sound reasonable to you? Why or why not? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 41419 bytes Desc: not available URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Fri Sep 4 23:01:17 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 16:01:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! Message-ID: Adrian Tymes wrote: snip > You know how to do it. That's why I'm asking you. Sorry, I don't know how to do it. If I did, I would be working on the project. Near as I can see it is one of those technically possible, but economically impossible projects. snip > Or, same size spot on the ground, and just use a much lower power density. They can claim land if needed. This is the problem with talking to people who don't have the background, in this case device physics (diodes). You cannot reduce the power density without the output rapidly going to zero. The rectenna diodes must forward conduct to get any power out of them at all. Keith From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 4 23:59:36 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 16:59:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] nursing homes again Message-ID: <053c01d68317$727ab860$57702920$@rainier66.com> OK so here is the Santa Clara covid data page: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx They will give the bar chart, but not the source data, soooo. I just cut the grumbling and went across there, entering the data in a spreadsheet, which allows an amateur data geek to do some tricks with it, such as plot out cumulative fatalities separated by nursing home residents (in green) and the non-homers (in blue.) We get this: The theory predicts that as we approach herd immunity, then the blue trace should level out, but the green trace will not. Reasoning: if we count every confirmed case as a WITH or OF and all of it goes into the database as a covid death, even if they were WITH covid six months ago, and actually perished OF an enraged bride with a crowbar, if that hapless resident of the crushed skull was a confirmed case at any time, in he goes, rules is rules. By that reasoning, the nursing homers would perhaps not level out, but continue to rise indefinitely at not so different a slope. Reasoning: a nursing home is a soul-crushing revolving door. Please note: there is a big difference between assisted living and a nursing home. In assisted living, those are really just small expensive apartments where nice young ladies come in every day and bring you food, take away your dishes, straighten out your bed, hey what's not to like. But that isn't a nursing home (granted there is one of those very nearby usually (but assisted living is not a nursing home (if you don't know about that grim world, do go to a nursing home (after the danger is over (they don't want you there now (when you get there, look, listen and learn.))))) Before you draw any conclusions regarding death rates of the homers vs the non-homers, note that the blue set is huge compared to the green set. What ratio? I would be surprised if it is less than 20 to 1. Any guesses on that? 20 ordinary proles for every homer? The above data is not scaled for that. The numbers of covid fatalities in each is pretty similar, but the blue set represents perhaps 20 times as many people. Speculations or observations please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.png Type: image/png Size: 29422 bytes Desc: not available URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Sat Sep 5 00:03:18 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 20:03:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <04c501d68302$7f4463d0$7dcd2b70$@rainier66.com> References: <04c501d68302$7f4463d0$7dcd2b70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <5A261DA8-D3BC-4139-B6CA-F3BA90A43569@alumni.virginia.edu> We do that in Mass. But I see your point that all places should do so. The Feds could strong-arm standardization among the states by, say, making some funding contingent on it. We need(ed) better leadership for that to have happened if you ask me. -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image0.jpeg Type: image/jpeg Size: 58946 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- > On Sep 4, 2020, at 5:30 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? > > -----Original Message----- > From: Henry Rivera > Sent: Friday, September 4, 2020 2:12 PM > To: ExI chat list > Cc: spike at rainier66.com > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again > > What does this refer to specifically? > >>> On Sep 4, 2020, at 4:08 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> and the failure to break out nursing home deaths, > > > Hi Henry, take all covid fatalities, separate all those who lived in a > nursing home or long term care facility. List the numbers separately. > Here's an example of where that is being done: > > https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx > > This is useful information. The green bars are nursing homers. Looks like > about half of the fatalities are there, and we already know the really > super-annuated almost all live in a nursing home. But if we treat those as > two separate groups and do our demographics similarly, the risk to older > non-nursing homers isn't nearly as disturbing, and Henry there is a reason > why I keep going on about that. > > Any distortion of the risk picture introduces new risks. > > For instance... my father's second cousin is one of my genealogy partners. > He lives practically within walking distance of the hospital where I was > born (he was born there too) and has never moved. It is a small hospital: > everybody knows everybody there. > > When the covid emergency began, many regular customers stopped coming. My > cousin continued but he isn't afraid of much (he faced the Viet Cong in > 1963, a virus doesn't scare him.) Not enough customers, the hospital had to > close its doors. He didn't re-establish contacts at the hospital over in > the big city. His prescriptions ran out. Fluid built up around his heart, > he wound up in the ER at the hospital he had previously refused to > patronize, hoping for the best with his congestive heart failure. > > He survived after a really bad night hooked up to the old blibbity beepers > (his term (wonderfully descriptive (not overly technical (but everyone here > knows what he means.)))) > > But otherwise he would be an example of a patient who died OF covid WITHOUT > covid. > > Distortion of the risk matrix introduces new risk. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 5 00:18:25 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Fri, 04 Sep 2020 17:18:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] down by the riverside In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200904171825.Horde.XUNeGepNU5ndHlT6jjHqIsA@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Spike: > > Over time, confirmed cases accumulate. If any fatality who was a > confirmed covid case counts as a covid fatality, then herd immunity > would result in that graph up there will eventually turn green. Now > it is about equal, but the right side of that graph should be more > homers than non-homers, so it should transition from blue to green. > Reasoning: people continue to perish in nursing homes, even if the > virus runs its course, but the non-homers wouldn?t as much. > > > > Smart amateur immunologists among us, does that sound reasonable to > you? Why or why not? That does sound reasonable to me, especially because many homers are already chronically ill and potentially immunocompromised. As a result an infection that should have been resolved in 2 weeks takes a month or longer. Even if a resident is capable of shaking off the virus eventually, if he slips in the shower during a coughing fit and cracks his head open while positive for virus, he is still a COVID death. Incidentally there is anecdotal evidence that people who are immune to the virus can develop subclinical asymptomatic reinfection after several months. So there is a slim possibility that it might become endemic in nursing homes as a nosocomial infection long after the general population is immune due to constant re-exposure by immune but mildly reinfected visitors and staff. This is likely to be exacerbated by profit-motive if the government continues to maintain a bounty on so-called COVID deaths. Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 00:32:43 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 17:32:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] down by the riverside In-Reply-To: <20200904171825.Horde.XUNeGepNU5ndHlT6jjHqIsA@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200904171825.Horde.XUNeGepNU5ndHlT6jjHqIsA@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <055901d6831c$176e5d00$464b1700$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat > > Smart amateur immunologists among us, does that sound reasonable to > you? Why or why not? >...That does sound reasonable to me, especially because many homers are already chronically ill and potentially immunocompromised. As a result an infection that should have been resolved in 2 weeks takes a month or longer. Even if a resident is capable of shaking off the virus eventually, if he slips in the shower during a coughing fit and cracks his head open while positive for virus, he is still a COVID death. >...Incidentally there is anecdotal evidence that people who are immune to the virus can develop subclinical asymptomatic reinfection after several months. So there is a slim possibility that it might become endemic in nursing homes as a nosocomial infection long after the general population is immune due to constant re-exposure by immune but mildly reinfected visitors and staff. This is likely to be exacerbated by profit-motive if the government continues to maintain a bounty on so-called COVID deaths. Stuart LaForge ____________________________________________ Thanks Stuart, I am leaving your entire comment in there unedited because you said it better than I did: fewer words, more content. I wanna be you when I grow up., me lad. I already know you are smart from that time you were here. Now we see you can write. I am pleased to see I am not the only one thinking about this. That business of a fund for covid fatalities has always seemed like an open and wide highway to corrupted datasets. spike From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 04:32:11 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2020 21:32:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> Message-ID: <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again >?He had mild cold symptoms and is back at work. SR Ballard SR, we might still be overlooking something fundamental in all this, for I am not a bit closer to being able to explain the apparent order of magnitude shortage in covid fatalities for the Sturgisers. Even if we take into account that there is a good chance none of the Sturgis crowd were nursing home patients before they headed out, we still aren?t there. They were not these guys: https://youtu.be/xZ15mbuE_pw Keith was the one who hipsterized me to how viruses don?t have DNA, they have RNA. But I had heard that polymerase chain reaction is not a reliable amplifier of RNA, only DNA. Ja? If so, it would explain why the people who use the covid tests every day say they are notoriously unreliable: they are using PCR to amplify RNA. My nurse cousin thinks they have an unacceptably high false positive rate. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 05:27:34 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 01:27:34 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 5, 2020, 12:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Keith was the one who hipsterized me to how viruses don?t have DNA, they > have RNA. But I had heard that polymerase chain reaction is not a reliable > amplifier of RNA, only DNA. > Two comments, many viruses do have DNA. CV-19 is not one of them though. There are no issues with RT-PCR used for RNA detection in terms of protocol. There's just an extra step in the beginning using reverse transcriptase to get a DNA strand to amplify from the RNA, and then it's just like regular PCR. > a? If so, it would explain why the people who use the covid tests every > day say they are notoriously unreliable: they are using PCR to amplify > RNA. My nurse cousin thinks they have an unacceptably high false positive > rate. > > spike > It's actually very accurate, the potential issue is with sensitivity being too high. Even a very small amount of RNA can be detected that may not be biologically active. Sensitivity issue: https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/09/01/covid-tests Protocol: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/how-is-the-covid-19-virus-detected-using-real-time-rt-pcr > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 12:39:52 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 08:39:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <049801d682ff$178fcde0$46af69a0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <047a01d682fa$3d9ea3d0$b8dbeb70$@rainier66.com> <8218D5CC-5B9D-4322-9D79-6A4418F37CB1@gmail.com> <049801d682ff$178fcde0$46af69a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I absolutely disagree. An office is an interior space where you sit and touch paper, or it?s electronic equivalent. I did not always work inside, I did not sit, and I did not touch paper in a meaningful way. SR Ballard > On Sep 4, 2020, at 5:05 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > From: SR Ballard > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again > > ?Office? ha. > > I work(ed) at a fast food restaurant. > > SR > > > SR, I worked at one of those places, hated it as much as you likely do. That restaurant is your office, ja? Any indoor work place is an office. For prisoners, that license plate stamping factory is their office, and they don?t like it either. EMTs have whirling lights atop their office, as they go to work at high speed to the tune of a shrieking siren. Those guys tend to like their offices however. It is an exciting place to work. > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 12:50:53 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 05:50:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <006401d68383$313ffd80$93bff880$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat ? a? If so, it would explain why the people who use the covid tests every day say they are notoriously unreliable: they are using PCR to amplify RNA. My nurse cousin thinks they have an unacceptably high false positive rate. spike >?It's actually very accurate, the potential issue is with sensitivity being too high. Even a very small amount of RNA can be detected that may not be biologically active? Is it possible that sensitivity problem is what is causing the bikers to not die of covid? Perhaps they do have it but the tests aren?t sensitive enough for the coroners to detect it? Or if the sensitivity is too high in the others, we are comparing the bikers against the wrong numbers? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 15:15:14 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 08:15:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 10:29 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Sat, Sep 5, 2020, 12:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Keith was the one who hipsterized me to how viruses don?t have DNA, they have RNA. But I had heard that polymerase chain reaction is not a reliable amplifier of RNA, only DNA. > > Two comments, many viruses do have DNA. CV-19 is not one of them though. Correct. I have no idea how Spike could have gotten such inaccurate information from me, I have understood that there are DNA and RNA viruses for decades. Smallpox, herpes, and the chickenpox are caused by DNA viruses. Influenza, rabies, and COVID-19 are RNA viruses. The misunderstanding could have been cured by a short visit to Wikipedia "Most eukaryotic viruses, including most human, animal, and plant viruses, are RNA viruses, although eukaryotic DNA viruses are also common.[44][49]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_classification#Host_range Some time ago (at least a year) I was impressed by an article (in Science I think) which discussed positive selection of genes from Neanderthals. The article noted that around 6000 genes (of the 20,000 active in humans) were associated with virus resistance, about half against DNA and half against RNA viruses. Wow. Close to 1/3 of the human genome is associated with virus resistance. You understand this subject. Keith > There are no issues with RT-PCR used for RNA detection in terms of protocol. There's just an extra step in the beginning using reverse transcriptase to get a DNA strand to amplify from the RNA, and then it's just like regular PCR. >> >> a? If so, it would explain why the people who use the covid tests every day say they are notoriously unreliable: they are using PCR to amplify RNA. My nurse cousin thinks they have an unacceptably high false positive rate. >> >> spike > > > It's actually very accurate, the potential issue is with sensitivity being too high. Even a very small amount of RNA can be detected that may not be biologically active. > > Sensitivity issue: > https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/09/01/covid-tests > > Protocol: > https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/how-is-the-covid-19-virus-detected-using-real-time-rt-pcr > From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 15:24:19 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 08:24:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] NEJM Message-ID: If you have the background to grok it, The New England Journal of Medicine has free coverage of the pandemic. It is one of the places the actual science is being reported. https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus?query=C19&cid=DM98059_NEJM_Registered_Users_and_InActive&bid=253513582 Keith From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 15:43:07 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 08:43:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 10:29 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Sat, Sep 5, 2020, 12:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Keith was the one who hipsterized me to how viruses don?t have DNA, they have RNA. But I had heard that polymerase chain reaction is not a reliable amplifier of RNA, only DNA. > > Two comments, many viruses do have DNA. CV-19 is not one of them though. >...Correct. >...I have no idea how Spike could have gotten such inaccurate information from me... Keith My misunderstanding Keith, apologies sir. I had forgotten that piece of information I might have known a long time ago, and referred to the Covid DNA. As I vaguely recall you pointed out that Covid has RNA, not DNA. I incorrectly extrapolated that all viruses have only RNA. Now I know that they don't all, but this one (the only virus I care about at the moment) does have RNA. I do know that polymerase chain reaction amplifies DNA but I hadn't heard that it works on RNA. But now I am hearing that it does work on RNA, and that it is being used in Covid test kits. Then I hear that the process is not really standardized regarding how many generations of PCR the kits use. This could make the kits more false-negative tolerant or more false-positive tolerant, depending on how many generations of PCR they use? Indeed? I hear from a nurse cousin that these tests are all over the map and she doesn't trust them. Well, she aughta know. So if the kits have some uncertainty, does that help us explain why the bikers appear to have half the usual new case rate and perhaps less than a tenth of the fatality rate they could have expected had they stayed home? I am one of the guys who suggested to my own bike club that we cancel Sturgis this year. But if going there reduces risk of a Covid fatality by an order of magnitude, my advice was poor indeed. So now I am left grasping at straws. Extra sunshine gave the bikers a dose of vitamin D? The bikers were chpre-selected from among non-nursing home residents? The test kits are insufficiently reliable? (And if so on that last one, why the one-way business? They intentionally mix-source those kits, in case one source or process has a negative or positive bias.) Did we get to herd immunity in July? And if so, did we somehow get there simultaneously from all the places the bikers came from? And is there some mechanism whereby Sturgis created a kind of temporary herd immunity by some unknown factor such as stinky bikers naturally gave each other more space? Or somehow the masks are not only ineffective, they somehow contribute to infection? Biker dies of covid and granny doesn't take him to the coroner, but rather buries him in the back yard with her other late husbands and never reports? This is a big signal here. We have one, exactly one, Sturgis rally covid fatality, and even that one is already over in the start of the ambiguous zone: it is possible he could have caught it back home after the rally. Keith or anyone, any plausible ideas on this? spike From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 16:34:44 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 09:34:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] second chance Message-ID: <005901d683a2$77638600$662a9200$@rainier66.com> Sturgis is a long ride for those on the densely populated east coast, particularly Floridians, but there is another bike festival coming up, Biketoberfest in Daytona Beach Florida on 15-18 October. A month ago the Daytona Beach mayor called it off, with the comment: ".it's a definitive no at this moment in time, unless things drastically turn around. Well, OK then. I haven't heard if the covid results from Sturgis are considered a drastic turn around by the good mayor, but also note that Daytona Beach is not way the hell out in the middle of nowhere like Sturgis. He can't order the constables to arrest anyone riding a motorcycle in Daytona. They can't really arrest people for camping on the beach (homeless people do that and no one bothers them.) The Daytona Beach mayor can order the restaurants closed, but even if he did and they complied, the bikers can have dinner in the city of South Daytona (which is separate from Daytona Beach (different mayor (happy to have the bikers' patronage))) and Port Orange and Wilbur and Holly Hill and Ormond Beach and Tiger Bay and of course the usual fine dining establishments at every exit on Interstate 95, Interstate 4, state roads 92 and 40, all of which love big-spending bikers. So. the mayor of Daytona Beach can call off Biketoberfest if he wishes, but the show will go on. He will be blameless. But he will also be credit-less for having tried to stop the rally if it turns out that the rally crowd is healthier than their stay-at-home neighbors. Shall we start a betting pool? If so, I would wager that the Biketoberfest crowd will be healthier than the stay-at-homes, even if I will be damned if I can figure out why. I can't think of a single plausible explanation for why the Sturgis crowd did so well, but whatever that was, I would bet the same mojo applies to Florida. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 16:56:25 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 09:56:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] second chance In-Reply-To: <005901d683a2$77638600$662a9200$@rainier66.com> References: <005901d683a2$77638600$662a9200$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007d01d683a5$7e683790$7b38a6b0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com >.Shall we start a betting pool? If so, I would wager that the Biketoberfest crowd will be healthier than the stay-at-homes, even if I will be damned if I can figure out why. I can't think of a single plausible explanation for why the Sturgis crowd did so well, but whatever that was, I would bet the same mojo applies to Florida. spike Other than being out in the sticks, what differences are there between Sturgis in August and Daytona Beach in October? I do know that Sturgis is hot, dry and dusty. The chart below describes the percent chance of each kind of weather. In the first week of August, typically there is about 3% chance of muggy conditions, about 12% chance of humid, about 25% chance of comfortable and about 60% chance of dry conditions: OK. I don't have a similar chart for Daytona beach, so do let me just offer a subjective description: 100% it will be at least muggy, but good chance it will go right on over to oppressive and miserable (ey, I didn't make up those terms (the Sturgis people did (and they are good descriptions of Florida in general for much of the year (see above.))) So. both places are hot, but Sturgis in August is really dry hot and Daytona Beach in October is jungle-humid hot. Both are hot, but Sturgis is very dry and dusty, whereas Daytona Beach is more soggy and mildewey. All those bikes rumbling around, there would be dust hanging in the air constantly in Sturgis, and now that I think about it, what if. airborne virus particles in a liquid suspension (such as from a sneeze) somehow encounter a dust particle also in suspension, form a virusey mud ball which somehow doesn't infect other bikers? Could dust in the air be a virus neutralizer? If so. the Biketoberfest in Daytona will be a super-spreader and we will see the opposite of the Sturgis experience. If I can't think of a better explanation, I retract my wager that Biketoberfest will somehow protect proles. But if Biketoberfest is a super-spreader, perhaps we can dust ourselves to health. I have thought of arbitrarily many get-rich-quick schemes, but this is the first time in my life it ever occurred to me that desert dust could have some useful purpose. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 27413 bytes Desc: not available URL: From interzone at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 16:57:39 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 12:57:39 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 11:15 AM Keith Henson wrote: > > Some time ago (at least a year) I was impressed by an article (in > Science I think) which discussed positive selection of genes from > Neanderthals. The article noted that around 6000 genes (of the 20,000 > active in humans) were associated with virus resistance, about half > against DNA and half against RNA viruses. Wow. Close to 1/3 of the > human genome is associated with virus resistance. > Very interesting, thanks for sharing this. I don't know if this is the same article as I didn't read it at the time, but this is as close as I could find https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)31095-X#secsectitle0100. It's certainly in the same ballpark if not the exact paper. This idea also dovetails nicely with the evolution of sexual reproduction itself under the Red Queen hypothesis. Parasites are another very interesting related area of study in terms of driving evolution. I must admit I have been both fascinated and horrified by them for a very long time. The movie Alien of course didn't help. Zimmer's 'Parasite Rex' is an easy read for anyone interested in broaching the subject, although it is a little long in the tooth at this point. I also recently saw that Candida (a fungus family) is making a comeback. There is an interesting hypothesis that mammalian (and in particular human) body temperatures are particularly hostile to most fungus because the majority of them don't do well at higher temperatures. The hypothesis is that warming global temperatures have selected for Candida that is heat resistant which doesn't bode well for us based on our limited abilities to combat fungus pharmaceutically. Hopefully, we'll see more research dollars thrown at it somewhat proactively: "Six years ago, a new infection began popping up in four different hospitals on three different continents, all around the same time. It wasn?t a bacteria, or a virus. It was ... a killer fungus. No one knew where it came from, or why. Today, the story of an ancient showdown between fungus and mammals that started when dinosaurs disappeared from the earth. Back then, the battle swung in our favor (spoiler alert!) and we?ve been hanging onto that win ever since. But one scientist suggests that the rise of this new infectious fungus indicates our edge is slipping, degree by increasing degree." https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/fungus-amungus -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 17:13:18 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 10:13:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] second chance In-Reply-To: <007d01d683a5$7e683790$7b38a6b0$@rainier66.com> References: <005901d683a2$77638600$662a9200$@rainier66.com> <007d01d683a5$7e683790$7b38a6b0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <008c01d683a7$d9f61ad0$8de25070$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com So. both places are hot, but Sturgis in August is really dry hot and Daytona Beach in October is jungle-humid hot. Sturgis is very dry and dusty, whereas Daytona Beach is more soggy and mildewey. spike The dust part might be a distraction (it isn't clear to me why the presence or absence of a dust particle would matter.) A water-mist behaves very differently in humid conditions than it does in dry conditions. If you take one of those Mr. Mister spray bottles, that is kinda analogous to a sneeze, ja? If you spray one of those into the air in Florida in October, the mist will kinda hang there, slowly disperse. If you repeat in August in Sturgis, the mist cloud evaporates within seconds. So if the virus is riding on a water droplet from a sneeze, would the virus care at all if its water droplet evaporated in seconds? Wouldn't it still be hanging there waiting to be inhaled? Does covid care if it is dried and re-moisturized? Or do we need to treat mucous droplets different from water droplets, and somehow theorize that perhaps the virus rides on droplets of mucus, sneeze, water evaporates, now finds itself stuck to a revolting nano-booger? How the hell does that work? Anyone? Keith? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From john at ziaspace.com Sat Sep 5 18:23:35 2020 From: john at ziaspace.com (John Klos) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 18:23:35 +0000 (UTC) Subject: [ExI] META: server maintenance today Message-ID: Hi, all, Just a heads up that we're reorganizing the rack and updating things today, so there will be a couple of periods where the server will be unavailable for several minutes at a time. Thanks, John Klos From pharos at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 18:40:37 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 19:40:37 +0100 Subject: [ExI] second chance In-Reply-To: <008c01d683a7$d9f61ad0$8de25070$@rainier66.com> References: <005901d683a2$77638600$662a9200$@rainier66.com> <007d01d683a5$7e683790$7b38a6b0$@rainier66.com> <008c01d683a7$d9f61ad0$8de25070$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, 5 Sep 2020 at 18:15, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > So if the virus is riding on a water droplet from a sneeze, would the virus care at all if its water droplet evaporated in seconds? Wouldn?t it still be hanging there waiting to be inhaled? Does covid care if it is dried and re-moisturized? Or do we need to treat mucous droplets different from water droplets, and somehow theorize that perhaps the virus rides on droplets of mucus, sneeze, water evaporates, now finds itself stuck to a revolting nano-booger? How the hell does that work? Anyone? Keith? > > spike > _______________________________________________ Maybe it is their diet as well as the sunshine. Quote: Patients who had vitamin D deficiency (< 20ng/ml) that was not treated were almost twice as likely to test positive for the COVID-19 coronavirus compared to patients who had sufficient levels of the vitamin. Half of Americans are deficient in Vitamin D, with much higher rates seen in African Americans, Hispanics and individuals living in areas like Chicago where it is difficult to get enough sun exposure in winter. --------------- Milk, cheese, eggs, etc....... BillK From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 20:20:15 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 13:20:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 8:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: snip > Now I know that they don't all, but this one (the only virus I care about at the moment) does have RNA. You are looking at too small a picture. Consider smallpox, a DNA virus. Not only are there frozen samples, but the entire genome is out on the net. It was demonstrated not long ago (with a related virus) that it is not much of a job to make an active virus. Smallpox has a 30% death rate, weaponized versions may be a lot higher. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Biological_warfare If you go down to where the Soviet Union is mentioned . . . well, read it yourself, 20 tons, wow.. I worked an intentional release of smallpox into the background of The Clinic Seed long ago. > I do know that polymerase chain reaction amplifies DNA but I hadn't heard that it works on RNA. But now I am hearing that it does work on RNA, and that it is being used in Covid test kits. Then I hear that the process is not really standardized regarding how many generations of PCR the kits use. This could make the kits more false-negative tolerant or more false-positive tolerant, depending on how many generations of PCR they use? Indeed? I hear from a nurse cousin that these tests are all over the map and she doesn't trust them. Well, she aughta know. You don't need to depend on a family member. If Wikipedia isn't enough, use the articles they reference or Google. > So if the kits have some uncertainty, does that help us explain why the bikers appear to have half the usual new case rate and perhaps less than a tenth of the fatality rate they could have expected had they stayed home? I don't think there is a chance of getting good epidemic data on the number of people who scattered over most of the US especially given the high background rate of infections. So far the number tested is under 1000 out of the 450,000 or so who came. But if you care, the current infection rates for N and S Dekota are the highest in the country. > I am one of the guys who suggested to my own bike club that we cancel Sturgis this year. But if going there reduces risk of a Covid fatality by an order of magnitude, my advice was poor indeed. You are always making decisions of this sort based on incomplete information. I would have made the same decision, but COVID would not have entered the picture. (I don't ride bikes. Too many friends killed or spent months in the hospital. Not that I don't appreciate the rush. I once rode an underpowered scooter from Tucson to Springerville, AZ. The ride on US 60 down into the Salt River Canyon and back out was a memorable experience.) snip > Did we get to herd immunity in July? It might have been a factor. Bikers tend to spend a lot of time in bars (or so I understand) so a lot of them could have already been infected. A good random sample for antibodies when the raley started could have answered that. However, getting blood out of a 1000 or so bikers would have been a daunting task. But on the US population scale, I really doubt it. Latest projecting is 410,000 deaths by Jan 1. > And if so, did we somehow get there simultaneously from all the places the bikers came from? And is there some mechanism whereby Sturgis created a kind of temporary herd immunity by some unknown factor such as stinky bikers naturally gave each other more space? That's behavior modification, unrelated to herd immunity. I don't know if bikers give each other more space, but non-bikers often do. > Or somehow the masks are not only ineffective, they somehow contribute to infection? Biker dies of covid and granny doesn't take him to the coroner, but rather buries him in the back yard with her other late husbands and never reports? Good idea for a story, but statistically unlikely. > This is a big signal here. We have one, exactly one, Sturgis rally covid fatality, and even that one is already over in the start of the ambiguous zone: it is possible he could have caught it back home after the rally. > > Keith or anyone, any plausible ideas on this? I don't think you have a signal. The US average (which is good data) is about 12 per 100 k of the population (though that does not count all the asymptomatic cases). For the 450k bikers, that would mean 54 a day or 540 over ten days just for background. Deaths lag infections by at least a month. Keith From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 21:13:47 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 14:13:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> >...> On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat >...I don't think there is a chance of getting good epidemic data on the number of people who scattered over most of the US especially given the high background rate of infections. So far the number tested is under 1000 out of the 450,000 or so who came. But if you care, the current infection rates for N and S Dekota are the highest in the country... Ja and that is why I am relying on fatality rates rather than new case rate. People don't get tested if they aren't sick. We don't know how many caught but have no symptoms. We do know if they die. And they test the corpses at the coroner, even if they come in with a crowbar-shaped chasm in the skull. Those will be reported. We have good data on background (or expected) death rate, and we have a death rate for Sturgisers. With half a million people, any half million, we should be seeing about 1 covid fatality per day. In the entire month of August, total covid fatalities: 1. Santa County, scaled to half a million August covid fatalities: 12. Los Angeles county, scaled to half a million August covid fatalities: 40. Sturgis: 1. > I am one of the guys who suggested to my own bike club that we cancel Sturgis this year... >...You are always making decisions of this sort based on incomplete information... Ja, there is that of course. There is one comment I wish I could unsay. I presented my case for cancelling, and finished with the comment "I propose we live to ride another day." In retrospect I regret posting that comment, for as I got to thinking about it... plenty of our club may not have another day to ride, not another one 4 yrs from now, which is when we proposed to meet at the national level again. I probably have another day, and another one four years after that one and another one after that, but several of our club are in their 80s already, and others are getting there. This mighta been their last chance to ride to Sturgis. >...I don't think you have a signal. The US average (which is good data) is about 12 per 100 k of the population (though that does not count all the asymptomatic cases)... Sure but I am looking at only fatalities here because they are less ambiguous. >...For the 450k bikers, that would mean 54 a day or 540 over ten days just for background. Deaths lag infections by at least a month. Keith _______________________________________________ Cases yes. As far as we can tell, there were a total of about 260 new cases total for those who attended Sturgis. The time from the end of the rally is sufficient that any new cases among those who attended must be assumed to have been caught after the rally (certainly plausible.) Alternative: that 260 number doesn't include covid cases who never knew they had it because the symptoms were very mild. If we use 260 cases among attendees, that is about half what we would expect. We can hope there are many covid cases which don't amount to much. Perhaps we can kinda account for part of that if we take out the nursing homers., but not really: those are half the fatalities, not half the cases. Nursing homers are waaaay less than half the cases. So... all I can suggest now is wait until we see what happens with Biketoberfest, and just say the bikers didn't die for some unknown reason. Keith what do we know about the effect of really dry air? Does that bother covid to be completely dehydrated? spike From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 22:35:57 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 15:35:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 11:53 AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > If you think these numbers are acceptable to the military, and you > want to sell them on the idea, I can introduce you to Paul Jaffe. > Okay, so - I get it. You think it is impossible that the military would ever want something less than 100% technically efficient, and that there is no possible way they could even conceive of bootstrapping the tech with something that costs mere millions of dollars and merely powers a few bases. You are dead wrong, but I get that that's what you believe. Could you please introduce me to Paul anyway? He might just be able to make this particular opportunity work, if he's got the designs he seems to have. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sat Sep 5 22:02:05 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 15:02:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: You are too early in counting biker death by weeks. Keith From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 5 22:08:52 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 15:08:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00ea01d683d1$24986920$6dc93b60$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Keith Henson Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox You are too early in counting biker death by weeks. Keith OK no worries, we shall wait on that. We are in time to count the new case rate however. With 260 new cases from the Sturgis crowd, it is reasonable to expect about 2 to 3 more fatalities, which would still have us well below their stay-at-home neighbors by more than a factor of 2. This brings up another interesting case: if the ordinary fatality rate now returns to normal for the bikers unrelated to the rally, they will always be fatalities of those who attended Sturgis. spike From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 05:14:18 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 22:14:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 5:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > snip > > Okay, so - I get it. You think it is impossible that the military would ever want something less than 100% technically efficient, Not at all. The best power satellite designs lose 50% of the power transmitting it to the ground (10 GW in space, 5 GW on the rectenna output-. > and that there is no possible way they could even conceive of bootstrapping the tech with something that costs mere millions of dollars and merely powers a few bases. That seems impossible. But I am more than willing to listen to any ideas that would get the cost down. > You are dead wrong, but I get that that's what you believe. It's based on ten years of studying engineering details. Made a lot of progress on such things as low mass heat sinks (down to a little over a kg/kW at 20 deg C) and some on self-powered transport to GEO and a lot of basic economics. However, scaling them down runs up against basic diffraction physics that is more than 200 years old. Perhaps I should not be so pessimistic. "deffraction limit microwave" in Google News turns up a mess of papers. Going through a sample of them I find no obvious application to power satellites but there might be. Keith From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 06:21:48 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2020 23:21:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Help Us Reimagine Energy for the DoD! In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 10:16 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 5:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > wrote: > > and that there is no possible way they could even conceive of > bootstrapping the tech with something that costs mere millions of dollars > and merely powers a few bases. > > That seems impossible. But I am more than willing to listen to any > ideas that would get the cost down. > It is obviously not the case that only a high powered microwave signal can penetrate the atmosphere. Much lower power densities than you are looking at, on the same wavelengths, do it all the time with reasonable focus. As you note, there is a minimum density below which no power gets through. But there is quite a range between your optimized sizes and zero power coming through. As a thought experiment, what would it take to deliver exactly one watt? Not "one watt out of thousands being received and piped into the grid". Rather, the total system output to the grid - after transmission inefficiencies and all that - is exactly one watt. It is obviously possible, if you scale the components down enough. If, say, you're using specific diodes from a specific manufacturer that won't register anything less than a kilowatt (which means just one watt is impossible with those diodes), use smaller diodes. > It's based on ten years of studying engineering details. There are two sets of data you need to begin commercializing this sort of thing: engineering details and customer needs. You don't have good data on this particular customer's needs, and dismiss new data without good reason. You assume one sort of customer - an industrial, grid-tied power plant - and you have data for that need. This customer is not that customer. This customer is willing to tolerate much higher costs per kwh, in exchange for the advantages inherent to the system. This customer's maximum needs per site are also much lower - thus, a smaller (and thus cheaper) overall system, even though it is less efficient, would be acceptable. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 12:02:23 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 20:02:23 +0800 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk Message-ID: The Fake Futurism of Elon Musk / Tom Nicholas This young Youtube intellectual criticises Musk, saying that the man runs his company basically like any other lord of industry, and that he is a champion for the elite, and not the majority. Nicholas gives some interesting history about society's changing attitudes about "the future." I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want to be a leader in apocalypse technology." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKEetGy2Y -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 13:46:39 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 15:46:39 +0200 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: If you ask me, one Elon Musk is worthier than a thousand whiners. On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 2:00 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The Fake Futurism of Elon Musk / Tom Nicholas > > This young Youtube intellectual criticises Musk, saying that the man runs > his company basically like any other lord of industry, and that he is a > champion for the elite, and not the majority. Nicholas gives some > interesting history about society's changing attitudes about "the future." > > I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want to be a leader in > apocalypse technology." > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKEetGy2Y > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 14:04:57 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 07:04:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Hear, hear. A lord of industry Musk may be, but he is delivering a better future for the masses than nearly all the other lords. On Sun, Sep 6, 2020, 6:53 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > If you ask me, one Elon Musk is worthier than a thousand whiners. > > On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 2:00 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> The Fake Futurism of Elon Musk / Tom Nicholas >> >> This young Youtube intellectual criticises Musk, saying that the man runs >> his company basically like any other lord of industry, and that he is a >> champion for the elite, and not the majority. Nicholas gives some >> interesting history about society's changing attitudes about "the future." >> >> I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want to be a leader in >> apocalypse technology." >> >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKEetGy2Y >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 6 14:39:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 07:39:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> >?I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want to be a leader in apocalypse technology." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OtKEetGy2Y On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk >?Hear, hear. A lord of industry Musk may be, but he is delivering a better future for the masses than nearly all the other lords? Adrian Thanks John and Adrian! John good to see you back, me lad. I will tell ya about Elon Musk from a neighbor?s eye view. I never met the man, but I met the results of his work. We like what we see. He started this car factory up the street, churning out coal burners as fast as he can throw em out there, people around here bought em like they were BMWs. My neighbor bought two. They charge at night, when the power demand is lower. This increases baseline power load, which sounds like a bad thing but is actually a good thing: it keeps your steady powerplants going at maximum efficiency by reducing the need to slow them down. Having a lot of coal-burners in the grid has a surprising additional benefit. Read on please, my Green friends. California has been wanting to get into the green energy and renewable game as much as we can, lotsa political sympathy for that notion, willingness to pay more for power to get it. I support that too: coal is dirty. Solar is clean. I will pay more to have that. OK so we understand: solar power takes a lotta room, and there isn?t enough of that near a city, so the solar and wind farms need to be out there a ways and long powerlines are needed to carry the power to the money, we get that. Sometimes? those powerlines cause fires and burn up the houses of people we care about, we get that too, but the power company does its best. One of the most effective ways to reduce the fire risk is to limit the peak load on the powerlines, particularly the ones which go thru the redwood forests (ja the same ones in the song.) At the end of the day (in the literal sense) the power from those mod hip solar farms drops just as ma and pa are getting home with their coal burners and plugging those rigs into the chargers. On hot days the air conditioners are still running. Power supplied by the solar farms drop, lines from the coal plants and natural gas plants and nuke plants must make up the load, the peak on those is limited because of fire risk. Result: right around sunset? there isn?t enough power. Yesterday evening we had our third blackout in two weeks. All is not lost. Some is not even really lost, it?s around here somewhere. Just saw some a while ago. Mr. Musk sold us the coal burners, and Mr. Musk also has a solution to the dusk power shortage problem for sale. Stand by, for this post is already too long. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 6 15:24:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 08:24:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com >?I will tell ya about Elon Musk from a neighbor?s eye view. ?All is not lost. Some is not even really lost, it?s around here somewhere. Just saw some a while ago. Mr. Musk sold us the coal burners, and Mr. Musk also has a solution to the dusk power shortage problem for sale. Stand by, for this post is already too long?spike OK so? lotta locals around here work at Mr. Musk?s factory up the street, but even those who do not might work making steering wheels and ordering wheel bearings and making the various electronic gazazzafratzes and things Mr. Musk puts into his nifty little hotwatt coal burners. OK, so? that has an impact. We see construction crews all over the place, cleaning up, fixing up, building backyard granny units, painting, maintaining, generally improving the neighborhood, anyone who wants a job can get a job, so? of course we realize that in the long run, all of this happened because Musk built that factory right here in previously poverty-stricken Fremont California, cool! Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. The lithium battery caused an engineering revolution in transportation, and it also creates a revolution in power. Reasoning: as we lean toward green power, there are engineering tradeoffs. The cost goes up and the reliability goes down (because renewable sources are intermittent (the sun doesn?t always shine and the wind doesn?t always blow.)) All is not lost, not even some really: we understand that energy storage systems are needed. Energy storage is inherently expensive, and it makes economic sense for the power company to tolerate blackouts rather than run up the power even higher building mass energy storage. So? they go that route. Having the power go out impacts some customers more than others: a lot of us work from home or study from home. So we have our own generators, but those only run the refrigerator and the laptop computers. In the last coupla, I have fired up mine trice. The neighbors on either side and over the back fence already know that sound and what it means: Plug in your refrigerator and phone charger strip to a powerstrip, drop the cord over the fence, spike will plug it in, keep four refrigerators and I don?t even know how many phones and laptops running, and if you have a laptop, you don?t really need lights, ja? All of that, using just a little cheap camper generator. OK, well sure, but that is noisy and undignified, ja? So? Mr. Musk offers a nifty (expensive but hip) solution called the Power Wall. It is little more than a bunch of Tesla batteries that is part of your house. It has its own high capacity inverter and all that, so if (eh? when) the power goes out, no problem, your good old Power Wall keeps all your stuff (except the AC) going right on as if nothing happened, and if you really have a lot of money it can even run your AC. The cool fun part of all this is that the individual proles pay for those depending on how much the can tolerate a power outage. I will not buy one because I don?t own a coal burner (outta my price range) and with a bit of grit and determination, I can survive for a few hours without the ability to post a big breezy commentary to ExI. Meanwhile, none of this required any political intervention, those willing and able to pay did so, the poorer of us see our power bills go down (mine did), my more capital-enabled neighbors buy the Power Wall, Mr. Musk gets still richer, some of that trickles back down, neighborhoods are spruced up, construction crews are busy, and? we (indirectly) are enabled to install more green and renewable energy sources because we have increasing ability to deal with power intermittence which is what limited green energy sources all along. Sheesh, how often does THIS happen? Eeeeverybody wins! The poor, the rich, the EVERYBODY who likes to breath cleaner air, the everybody. Cool! All you proles with more money than you know what to do with, please go buy a Tesla. Thank you Mr. Musk. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 16:11:54 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 17:11:54 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, 6 Sep 2020 at 16:26, spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > > > >?I will tell ya about Elon Musk from a neighbor?s eye view. ?All is not > lost. Some is not even really lost, it?s around here somewhere. Just saw > some a while ago. Mr. Musk sold us the coal burners, and Mr. Musk also has > a solution to the dusk power shortage problem for sale. Stand by, for this > post is already too long?spike > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Where does this 'coal burner' term come from????? Do you mean like this -- [image: coal burner.jpg] And definitely don't look it up in Urban Dictionary! BillK -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: coal burner.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 165508 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 16:38:42 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 09:38:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 9:23 AM BillK via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Where does this 'coal burner' term come from????? > It is a misleading (at best) term, referring to the fact that the national power grid includes input from coal-fired power plants, therefore incorrectly implying that everything powered from the grid is primarily powered by coal. (Granted, coal, natural gas, and petroleum - in other words, all fossil fuels combined - are over 50%, but that's at least not just coal.) This also overlooks the radical differences in efficiency and environmental effect between large power plants whose emissions can (at least in theory) be captured and stored (as opposed to being released into city or wilderness areas), versus lots of small internal combustion engines that have no practical choice but to dump their emissions at the point of use (along the roads that go right through populated areas). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 6 16:51:29 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 09:51:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke cloud Message-ID: <003501d6846d$f7f2bb30$e7d83190$@rainier66.com> You can call it a smoke cloud, or sound scholarly and call it a pyrocumulonimbus flammagenitus, which means "smoke cloud." I have lived long, but never saw a really good example of this until this past month, when I saw it on two occasions: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7147/ If you use the full technical name, the sounds a bit like several nimble hot chicks really in the mood: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulonimbus_flammagenitus Science is really cool that way: if someone calls you on it, you get to act all scientific and stuff. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 6 17:05:56 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 10:05:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005301d6846f$fcd71a40$f6854ec0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 9:23 AM BillK via extropy-chat > wrote: Where does this 'coal burner' term come from????? >?It is a misleading (at best) term, referring to the fact that the national power grid includes input from coal-fired power plants, therefore incorrectly implying that everything powered from the grid is primarily powered by coal. (Granted, coal, natural gas, and petroleum - in other words, all fossil fuels combined - are over 50%, but that's at least not just coal.) >?This also overlooks the radical differences in efficiency and environmental effect between large power plants whose emissions can (at least in theory) be captured and stored (as opposed to being released into city or wilderness areas), versus lots of small internal combustion engines that have no practical choice but to dump their emissions at the point of use (along the roads that go right through populated areas)? Hi Adrian, Granted, and I do not wish to speak disparagingly of electric vehicles. I like them and benefit from them even if I do not own one. The young hot-asses who would otherwise be driving loud annoying cars get those rigs and whir around quietly. Noise pollution is reduced, suburban environments improved, people are more careful about crossing streets against the walk light (because EVs are harder to hear.) More importantly, my power rates go down. Eventually a lot of people who drive EEVs install Power Walls, then their houses are worth more, which makes mine worth more (hey, it?s a comparable (ask your real estate guy.)) I noticed they quietly stopped putting the Zero Emissions Vehicle plate on there, for until we get nukes going in bigger numbers, they are more accurately called Emissions Elsewhere Vehicles. However? we still win on that deal because the presence of EEVs incentivizes nuclear plants. Nuclear plants are the cleanest and most environmentally friendly form of power generation (assuming they don?t explode and send deadly radioactive clouds over thousands of square miles.) If we get more nuke plants, the EEVs really do reduce the carbon footprint. At some point it is impossible to deny: humans are fouling our own nest. There is no going back to the olden days: we were doing that back then too. There were fewer of us then, but we were. As for buying one, I will leave that to my dentist and my hedge-fund neighbor for now. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hibbard at wisc.edu Sun Sep 6 17:47:51 2020 From: hibbard at wisc.edu (Bill Hibbard) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 12:47:51 -0500 (CDT) Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk Message-ID: > I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want > to be a leader in apocalypse technology." I'm a big fan of Elon Musk. He is co-founder of OpenAI and a big supporter of open technology. I think the key to human rights in the age of apocalyptic technology is openness: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/human_freedom.html From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 18:03:45 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 13:03:45 -0500 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I'm a big fan of Elon Musk. He is co-founder of OpenAI and a big supporter of open technology. I think the key to human rights in the age of apocalyptic technology is openness. This is correct in two ways, one you meant. The other is the personality trait of Openness, one of the Big Five. If you equate IQ the person with a higher score on Openness will do better in life in various ways, mostly accepting as well as inventing new ideas. They will, for example, be better at finding new ways to use old things and better at accepting new things and finding even newer ways to use them. The opposite personality tends to reject anything new and thus is stuck in the present or past. Yes, conservatives are less open. bill w On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 12:50 PM Bill Hibbard via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > I found this quote by Musk to be eye-opening, "we want > > to be a leader in apocalypse technology." > > I'm a big fan of Elon Musk. He is co-founder of OpenAI and > a big supporter of open technology. I think the key to human > rights in the age of apocalyptic technology is openness: > > https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/human_freedom.html > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Sun Sep 6 20:30:01 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 16:30:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 11:25 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, > but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. > You wouldn't need a solution if your state faced the reality of its energy needs and balanced them appropriately against the unreliability of a heavily "green" solar/wind grid. Whenever I hear a green speak against nukes (not you, I realize), I know they don't take climate change seriously themselves or have zero understanding of the amount of power actually needed to end up zero emissions and still actually produce enough power for our needs overall. California has made a conscious decision to deprioritize carbon based sources and unfortunately its residents are paying the price. I realize the bulk of the grid is not alternative even in CA, but enough of it is that there is not going to be enough peak capacity if ANYTHING else goes offline at the same time, like a NG fired plant. There is not enough redundancy from traditional carbon based sources (or nukes). > So? Mr. Musk offers a nifty (expensive but hip) solution called the Power > Wall. It is little more than a bunch of Tesla batteries that is part of > your house. It has its own high capacity inverter and all that, so if (eh? > when) the power goes out, no problem, your good old Power Wall keeps all > your stuff (except the AC) going right on as if nothing happened, and if > you really have a lot of money it can even run your AC. > The Power Wall is a cool idea, but the energy density unsurprisingly sucks compared to hydrocarbons. One Wall is not cheap and has a relatively small 13.5kWh capacity. That's not going to last very long if you are trying to power a well equipped household during a heat wave. I'm sure it's fine for in home solar in an area where that makes sense combined with grid to smooth things out overnight, but I don't think it's too much to ask in a supposedly first world country to have a reliable electrical grid to avoid needing these in every home. Outside of the noise and attempting to get gas into it without spilling any, I marvel at the miracle of the old fashioned portable generator. I bought one during Sandy, and had to break it out during Isaias when our own sucky local utility Eversource was somehow caught completely off guard by it and it took 6+ days to restore power here on the East Coast in my neighborhood. I have a Generac GP5500 which was enough to keep things going and comfortable, with room to spare for the neighbor to power his fridge and charge his devices. At some point, I'd like to splurge to have the generator connection wired to the circuitbreaker so I don't have a rat's nest of extension cords strewn throughout the house to deal with though, in addition to having to manually wire the boiler temporarily into a cord for hot water. Anyways, I'm all for what Musk is trying to do outside of his hucksterism in general and around self driving cars in particular with his overpromising on existing technology that could easily get someone killed. I'm a fan of his overall, but he's got a bit too much of P.T. Barnum about him than I would like. It would be great to have a quantum leap in battery technology though despite the incremental progress continuing to be made with lithium ion. That would be a game changer. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 6 20:50:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 13:50:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] nursing homes again Message-ID: <00fb01d6848f$56b1a200$0414e600$@rainier66.com> Santa Clara County is the only place I can find Covid fatalities by day broken down by nursing home and non-nursing home. In the graph on this page, the homers are green, the non-homers are blue: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard-cases.aspx We really distort the picture if we fail to take into account an important demographic that is very simple to answer: do you live in a nursing home or do you not live in a nursing home? If you do not know the answer to that question, you do. OK then, nursing homers are about half a percent of the US population but about 40% of the covid fatalities. If we ignore that distinction, we get a crazy-distorted picture of what is really going on. You may have seen covid fatality rates by age demographics, but were they scaled to the percentage of people in those age categories? They should be: there aren't that many people who are 95 or older. If you look at the data for covid fatalities and divide thru by percentage of the population in those decade brackets, you get data that looks like this: I scaled this to 1 for the 60 +/- 5 year decade. The first odd looking thing is that people who are less than 55 have a 4 times higher risk than the 55-65 crowd, but not really: that column to the left is actually the sum of 5.5 decades: that 4 is the sum of 5 and a half age brackets, all of which are less than 1. So no, it isn't higher chance of perishing of covid if one is younger than 55, but rather a higher chance that one IS younger than 55. OK then, this is scary if one is over on the right side of that graph. I estimated that for every nursing homer, there are about 20 non-homers. My estimate was remarkably correct. Wiki claims about 1.5 megahomers in the USA, and there are about 330 megaproles, so about half a percent of the population accounts for about 40% of the covid fatalities. OK then. Once we take that into account and recalculate the numbers for non-homers, using the CDC age demographics for nursing homes, we get a graph that looks like this: Well, it is still better to be young. Being young is good for a lot of things. But the picture looks a lot different ja? Once we take out and treat separately the nursing homers, most of whom are senior citizens, we see that if we use the 60+/- 5 crowd as a comparison, now instead of being 9 times more dangerous to catch covid while being 80+/-5, it is more like 2.2 times more dangerous to catch covid while being 80+/-5 years. After one turns 85, if one is not in the nursing home, instead of being 22 times more dangerous, it is really about 4.2 times as dangerous to catch covid at that age. Clearly it is just dangerous to be over 95, but look at it this way: eeeeeverything is dangerous after age 95. A slip in the tub is dangerous at 95. I took a fall in the tub, it was nothing more than an owwww damn, and on with my business. But I was 17 at the time. At 95 that slip would be very dangerous. Sneezing is dangerous at age 95. Copulation can be fatal at that age (hmmm, OK bad example (copulation can be dangerous at any age (depending on who it is with.))) In any case. if we fail to take into account that 40% of the covid fatalities are in a special-case half a percent of the population, we distort the picture in important ways. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.png Type: image/png Size: 40013 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image004.png Type: image/png Size: 39864 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 01:05:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 18:05:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <023301d684b3$07c7df00$17579d00$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 11:25 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: From: spike at rainier66.com > >>?Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. >?You wouldn't need a solution if your state faced the reality of its energy needs and balanced them appropriately against the unreliability of a heavily "green" solar/wind grid? You are right on that Dylan. I am confident that the government will not deal with it effectively (and it isn?t even clear what it could do really (the same party controls both houses with a supermajority in the senate and the governor?s seat (so what could they do?))) It is up to PG&E, but they are up to their eyeballs in lawsuits over those fires in 2018. So they will opt for rolling blackouts (another one is predicted for this evening, so I will make this short (the power could go out at any minute.) Musk?s solution allows people to increase the power capacitance of the grid. It is analogous to a really expensive integrated generator system. If a prole has 80k-120k to drop into it, that system can integrate rooftop solar, lithium battery backup, create a non-interruptible AC system and even run your AC. It wouldn?t be enough to charge your hotwatt Tesla, and you would need gas clothes drying, but it could carry AC overnight. For 150k-200k, you could really go first class, and never need to pay a power bill. Granted your payback time on that would be about 30 years, but it can be done. Musk can get that done for you. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 04:02:59 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2020 21:02:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Keith Henson Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox You are too early in counting biker death by weeks. Keith Hi Keith, Why are we counting the one guy? What is the range when we can start to when we can end that count? Isn't it too soon on him? How do we know he didn't catch at home before the rally? And if he did catch before the rally, there should have been others who caught before the rally and are dying now. Perhaps that's the preselection effect. The Sturgis rally was in South Dakota, one of seven states which did not issue shutdown orders. South Dakota was (I think) the only state which shut down nothing. The other six states had very limited shutdowns and no stay-home orders. The states which did not shut down, ranked by covid deaths per million population are Iowa Rank 23 death per million 396 Arkansas Rank 30 death per million 296 Nebraska Rank 38 death per million 209 North Dakota Rank 39 death per million 205 South Dakota Rank 41 death per million 196 Utah Rank 44 death per million 132 Wyoming Rank 49 death per million 73 US average covid death per million: 584 Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ OK then. States which did not shut down didn't really have all that much in fatalities per million. I have some ponderin to do. spike From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 14:50:30 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 07:50:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] black biggies Message-ID: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> These LIGO results just keep blowing our minds. They recently announced a merger of two black holes of mass 85 and 66 solar masses, which I thought had to be a typo or a mistake when I first read it, but they claim it is true. That 85 sol black hole is too big to have formed by the usual path as we (or as I) understand it. To be that size, it would hafta have formed by a previous black hole merger, and if so, that too is quite mysterious by my understanding of cosmology. Even the smaller of this pair is close to the limits of the standard model of black hole formation. LIGO and now the European VIRGO both saw that merger happen. Those instruments have returned so much good science, oh what a marvelous time to be alive. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 20:09:48 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 13:09:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 11:25 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: From: spike at rainier66.com > Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. >?You wouldn't need a solution if your state faced the reality of its energy needs and balanced them appropriately against the unreliability of a heavily "green" solar/wind grid? Dylan Hi Dylan, Oy vey. I have a family member in Southern Cal who is sick, has to deal with this: MayorOfLA @MayorOfLA ? 22h It?s almost 3 p.m. Time to turn off major appliances, set the thermostat to 78 degrees (or use a fan instead), turn off excess lights and unplug any appliances you?re not using. We need every Californian to help conserve energy. Please do your part. https://twitter.com/MayorOfLA/status/1302726251371667457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1302790577575133186%7Ctwgr%5E393535353b636f6e74726f6c &ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fdirectorblue.blogspot.com%2F So? why not encourage (with tax incentives?) well-off proles to buy Teslas and Power Walls, then use those to help carry the load rather than these absurd rolling blackouts? Aside: when California had those rolling blackouts in about 2000 and 2001, someone built a natural gas peaker plant: https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/sitingcases/losesteros2/index.html What I heard is that they had planned and had pre-approved a second phase which would require one of those hourglass-shaped cooling towers (like you see in Mr. Burns? nuke plant in Springfield) but the locals found ways to block that from being built (because it looks too nuclear): https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/Springfield_Nuclear_Power_Plant#:~:text=The%20Springfield%20Nuclear%20Power%20Plant,mainly%20Homer's%20work%20place. Without that second-phase tower, the natural gas plant was too inefficient and went outta business. Now we are back to rolling blackouts. The reason I posted that tweet from the LA mayor: why would anyone need to unplug unused appliances? If they are unused, what difference would it make if they were plugged in? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 7 20:15:29 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 16:15:29 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 7, 2020, 4:10 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk > > > > On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 11:25 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, > but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. > > > > >?You wouldn't need a solution if your state faced the reality of its > energy needs and balanced them appropriately against the unreliability of a > heavily "green" solar/wind grid? Dylan > > > > > > Hi Dylan, > > > > Oy vey. I have a family member in Southern Cal who is sick, has to deal > with this: > > ... > > So? why not encourage (with tax incentives?) well-off proles to buy Teslas > and Power Walls, then use those to help carry the load rather than these > absurd rolling blackouts? > > > > Aside: when California had those rolling blackouts in about 2000 and 2001, > someone built a natural gas peaker plant: > > > > https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/sitingcases/losesteros2/index.html > > > > What I heard is that they had planned and had pre-approved a second phase > which would require one of those hourglass-shaped cooling towers (like you > see in Mr. Burns? nuke plant in Springfield) but the locals found ways to > block that from being built (because it looks too nuclear): > > > > > https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/Springfield_Nuclear_Power_Plant#:~:text=The%20Springfield%20Nuclear%20Power%20Plant,mainly%20Homer's%20work%20place > . > > > > Without that second-phase tower, the natural gas plant was too inefficient > and went outta business. > > > > Now we are back to rolling blackouts. > > > > The reason I posted that tweet from the LA mayor: why would anyone need to > unplug unused appliances? If they are unused, what difference would it > make if they were plugged in? > > > > spike > Spike, Sorry to hear about the family member! The reason they're asking you to unplug unused appliances is that many modern appliances still drain some current even if turned off. They're not truly off in the sense of an open circuit. It adds up over an entire population. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 21:01:26 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 14:01:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <010101d6855a$0d8d6750$28a835f0$@rainier66.com> >? On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk The reason I posted that tweet from the LA mayor: why would anyone need to unplug unused appliances? If they are unused, what difference would it make if they were plugged in? spike >?Spike, Sorry to hear about the family member! We are hoping for the best there. >?The reason they're asking you to unplug unused appliances is that many modern appliances still drain some current even if turned off. They're not truly off in the sense of an open circuit. It adds up over an entire population? Ja, I think that?s it, but it would only apply to stereos, TVs and stuff with clocks in it. I have an alternate explanation kinda. The power leakage thru hundreds, perhaps thousands of devices while turned off, hasta be low compared to even one air conditioner. I might need to look it up, but the big power users in my house are the AC and laundry (I have gas water heating and drying.) I set up a rack in an unused bedroom to reduce the use of that dryer. I freely grant that plenty of people have no spare bedroom. We didn?t get blacked out last night! (yay! (never thought I would be yaying for not having my power turned off.)) My theory is that the mayor fully intends to propose stuff that has the maximum psychological impact on the populace, kinda like ordering restaurants in California restaruants to not serve customers a glass of water unless they ask for it during the water crisis. This would encourage them to turn off their irrigation systems and let their grass perish. Restaurants cheerfully complied: they saved money and effort, sold more beer and soda. If they ask for something to save power that is a pain in the ass (to plug stuff back in every time you go to use that appliance) it has a psychological impact which warms up the public to vote to approve a new powerplant. We hit the snooze button in 2000 by adding a few small natural gas plants and tax incentivizing the public phase over to LED lighting (I did about that time.) But those were only postponing what was coming eventually: we need more and better prime-movers. Small natural gas burners are too expensive to carry the load. Big ones would help. This was coming sooner or later: Mr. Musk has been stamping out those pricey little hotwatts as fast as he can hurl them out the door. We will need more power plants, more storage, more transmission lines, more everything having to do with power, and even then, we can be sure that coal plants and existing gas plants will not be leaving us anytime soon. We need nukes, oh how we need nukes. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Mon Sep 7 21:04:03 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 17:04:03 -0400 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> Spike, you say the parent black holes would both be at the limits of current understanding. Couldn?t they just be the products of the collision of grandparent black holes? I assume that would be a ?thing?? SR > On Sep 7, 2020, at 10:50 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > These LIGO results just keep blowing our minds. They recently announced a merger of two black holes of mass 85 and 66 solar masses, which I thought had to be a typo or a mistake when I first read it, but they claim it is true. That 85 sol black hole is too big to have formed by the usual path as we (or as I) understand it. > > To be that size, it would hafta have formed by a previous black hole merger, and if so, that too is quite mysterious by my understanding of cosmology. Even the smaller of this pair is close to the limits of the standard model of black hole formation. > > LIGO and now the European VIRGO both saw that merger happen. Those instruments have returned so much good science, oh what a marvelous time to be alive. > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ExiMod at protonmail.com Mon Sep 7 21:32:43 2020 From: ExiMod at protonmail.com (ExiMod) Date: Mon, 07 Sep 2020 21:32:43 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Exi-chat Guidelines Message-ID: The original Extropy-Chat List Agreement was intended as a full introduction to the email list for new list members and extends to three pages in length. It is stored on the Extropy Institute website http://www.extropy.org/ which was archived in 2007. Although over the years since then the List Agreement has become rather out-of-date, it still has historical value and Exi-chat is based on the same principles. I have summarised the three pages into a simplified five-rule Exi-chat Guidelines statement. Hopefully this will make Exi-chat life clearer for everyone. ExiMod ------------------------------------------------- Exi-chat Guidelines September 2020 1) Be polite. We do not allow personal attacks or defamatory statements on Exi-chat. 2) Spam is not allowed. Personal professional announcements or discussion of personal professional activities are OK. 3) Some topics, which are occasionally introduced on the Exi-chat List, have been controversial enough to provoke long-lasting, heated exchanges. The main topics of controversy in the past have been USA gun rights and USA politics. The subject of USA politics is not encouraged here, particularly anything about current events. It is not banned, but any comments here should be brief and non-partisan. There is a separate email list for more lengthy USA Exi-politics discussion. Speculating about future types of political systems is fine on Exi-chat. 4) Since the topic of discussion on the list can change constantly within a single thread, we ask that the subject lines change accordingly. If you feel that a thread is going off the original topic, that's perfectly fine, but please change the subject line to let all list readers know what the topic has become. 5) Formal complaints and administrative requests should be sent to: ExiMod at protonmail.com ------------------------------------------------------- -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 21:37:47 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 14:37:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> Message-ID: <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] black biggies Spike, you say the parent black holes would both be at the limits of current understanding. Couldn?t they just be the products of the collision of grandparent black holes? I assume that would be a ?thing?? SR Ja sure is SR a way biggie thing it is. >From my understanding of it, the way big mergers happen is when two stars destined to merge originally formed, they had to be in pairs where they were gravitationally bound, but also had a close approach point. This bled off an enormous amount of angular momentum at each mutual perihelion, eventually causing a the two to merge, forming Mister 85. But if we initially had three, I don?t understand how the merger could have set up conditions likely to get a subsequent merger of Mister 66. I am struggling to imagine two pairs each pair tightly bound to start with, and each of the pairs in a highly-elliptical orbit that close-approaches the other pair, with all four of the original stars being monsters. Oh that staggers the imagination. Note: LIGO just turned on the past 5 yrs. We have gotten alllll thiiiiis in just the last 5 years, good new science out the old wazoo. Staggering the imagination is a good thing in science: it indicates one is about to learn something new and wicked cool. I am getting that feeling about this. We are about to figure out something really cool just from this latest event. spike On Sep 7, 2020, at 10:50 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: These LIGO results just keep blowing our minds. They recently announced a merger of two black holes of mass 85 and 66 solar masses, which I thought had to be a typo or a mistake when I first read it, but they claim it is true. That 85 sol black hole is too big to have formed by the usual path as we (or as I) understand it. To be that size, it would hafta have formed by a previous black hole merger, and if so, that too is quite mysterious by my understanding of cosmology. Even the smaller of this pair is close to the limits of the standard model of black hole formation. LIGO and now the European VIRGO both saw that merger happen. Those instruments have returned so much good science, oh what a marvelous time to be alive. spike _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 7 21:38:48 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 14:38:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <010101d6855a$0d8d6750$28a835f0$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> <010101d6855a$0d8d6750$28a835f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 7, 2020 at 2:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >?The reason they're asking you to unplug unused appliances is that many > modern appliances still drain some current even if turned off. They're > not truly off in the sense of an open circuit. It adds up over an entire > population? > > > > Ja, I think that?s it, but it would only apply to stereos, TVs and stuff > with clocks in it. > You know it and I know it, but the kinds of people who order these things - and, frankly, most of the people being asked to do it - don't have a clue. The message has to be dumbed down to "unplug everything" or it doesn't get understood - and, thus, doesn't get done. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 22:16:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 15:16:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> <010101d6855a$0d8d6750$28a835f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <016301d68564$967c7150$c37553f0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk On Mon, Sep 7, 2020 at 2:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: >?The reason they're asking you to unplug unused appliances is that many modern appliances still drain some current even if turned off. They're not truly off in the sense of an open circuit. It adds up over an entire population? Ja, I think that?s it, but it would only apply to stereos, TVs and stuff with clocks in it. >?You know it and I know it, but the kinds of people who order these things - and, frankly, most of the people being asked to do it - don't have a clue. The message has to be dumbed down to "unplug everything" or it doesn't get understood - and, thus, doesn't get done? You are right Adrian. It does bring mirth to my heart to imagine Angelinos going thru the kitchen unplugging the can opener, the toaster, the coffee pot, while their giant-screen TV blasts out the latest inane soap-opera, the AC is cheerfully churning, electric dryer drying, and their Muskmobile is out there charging away. Meanwhile, they congratulate themselves on doing three of the four things Mister Mayor asked: unplugged three devices, but had to let the hotwatt charge because? wait for it? a Tesla has an AC that runs in your own garage! No kidding. I tried to explain to my neighbor how inefficient a car?s AC is if you are not moving (the air across the condenser carries away the heat (but he says it continued to work the whole time the power was out.)) He slept in his ride when we had a power outage last week and the temp approached 40C. He couldn?t work in his house (too hot without AC) so he went out, got in his Tesla, set the climate control to polar bear and zoned out until the power came back on. He has money. {8^D spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Mon Sep 7 23:24:16 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 16:24:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-07 13:09, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > one of those hourglass-shaped cooling towers > (like you see in Mr. Burns? nuke plant in Springfield) It's a hyperboloid, if anyone asks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperboloid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperboloid_structure I do not believe I have ever seen a hyperboloid hourglass. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From sen.otaku at gmail.com Mon Sep 7 23:43:05 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 19:43:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <417C1A88-C5B4-4F1C-8237-D631AF9FF4D6@gmail.com> Would that be strictly required though? Suppose there are two galaxies passing through each other? can?t that result in two black holes passing each other and falling into a death spiral? (I?m not up to date on the particulars of this merger) SR Ballard > On Sep 7, 2020, at 5:37 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] black biggies > > Spike, you say the parent black holes would both be at the limits of current understanding. Couldn?t they just be the products of the collision of grandparent black holes? I assume that would be a ?thing?? > > SR > > > Ja sure is SR a way biggie thing it is. > > From my understanding of it, the way big mergers happen is when two stars destined to merge originally formed, they had to be in pairs where they were gravitationally bound, but also had a close approach point. This bled off an enormous amount of angular momentum at each mutual perihelion, eventually causing a the two to merge, forming Mister 85. But if we initially had three, I don?t understand how the merger could have set up conditions likely to get a subsequent merger of Mister 66. > > I am struggling to imagine two pairs each pair tightly bound to start with, and each of the pairs in a highly-elliptical orbit that close-approaches the other pair, with all four of the original stars being monsters. Oh that staggers the imagination. > > Note: LIGO just turned on the past 5 yrs. We have gotten alllll thiiiiis in just the last 5 years, good new science out the old wazoo. > > Staggering the imagination is a good thing in science: it indicates one is about to learn something new and wicked cool. I am getting that feeling about this. We are about to figure out something really cool just from this latest event. > > spike > > > > > > > > > On Sep 7, 2020, at 10:50 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > These LIGO results just keep blowing our minds. They recently announced a merger of two black holes of mass 85 and 66 solar masses, which I thought had to be a typo or a mistake when I first read it, but they claim it is true. That 85 sol black hole is too big to have formed by the usual path as we (or as I) understand it. > > To be that size, it would hafta have formed by a previous black hole merger, and if so, that too is quite mysterious by my understanding of cosmology. Even the smaller of this pair is close to the limits of the standard model of black hole formation. > > LIGO and now the European VIRGO both saw that merger happen. Those instruments have returned so much good science, oh what a marvelous time to be alive. > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 7 23:46:19 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 16:46:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <00c401d68552$d6d760a0$848621e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <01b401d68571$163c5660$42b50320$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Anton Sherwood Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk On 2020-9-07 13:09, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > one of those hourglass-shaped cooling towers (like you see in Mr. > Burns? nuke plant in Springfield) >...It's a hyperboloid, if anyone asks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperboloid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperboloid_structure >...I do not believe I have ever seen a hyperboloid hourglass... Anton Anton, hey, you are still ahead of me. I have never even seen an hourglass. We had already switched to clocks by the time I was born. But I have seen one of those hourglass-shaped towers, which are used to dump heat off of the condenser in a nuclear power plant. Turns out... those things are great for any power plant, not just nuclear: they cause the operation to be very efficient. Without that big scary looking tower emitting steam, the power generated is more expensive. Power from a small peaker plant is already expensive. When the local citizenry rose up and blocked construction of the hyperboloid tower, insisting they would not have radioactive clouds wafting over the town (from a natural gas plant) then it proved impossible to convince the angry mobs that cooling towers work for any power plant, including coal (which is dirty) and natural gas (which is clean.) They blocked it, even though it already had a permit. Consequently... the plant went broke. By the time all this took place, the state had incentivized the proletariat to install LED lighting, which reduced power consumption. A lotta locals installed higher efficiency AC, again at great expense and switched to gas water heating and laundry (never mind for now that this emits CO2 (the proletariat is not known for our collective grasp of science.)) Eventually the state began to see the advantages of packing people closer (for closer packed people have the option of becoming still more clueless and dependent on they who would save us.) An example is to give permits to high-density housing and to do permits for backyard "granny units" which are stand-alone small houses which can be rented. Much to the shock and astonishment of local government... population density... rose! Who could have seen THAT coming? All we did was issue permits for thousands of high-density apartments! Then... as a second shocking as astonishing discovery... people began to move into those new grannys and apartments. In an unforeseen development: they have electrical devices too, as well as Teslae, resulting in... increased demand for power. What a shock. Now we are back to where we were 20 yrs ago: short of power once again, but this time with good old intermittent green energy we are relying on to carry the base load, even knowing that in general green power cannot carry the base load because of its inherently intermittent nature. I can foresee the result. Someone, perhaps Mr. Musk or his investors, are going to buy that peaker plant and use it in a way it was never designed to be used: as a baseline carrier. Without a cooling tower, the power generated there will be pricy stuff. spike From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 00:02:54 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 17:02:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <417C1A88-C5B4-4F1C-8237-D631AF9FF4D6@gmail.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> <417C1A88-C5B4-4F1C-8237-D631AF9FF4D6@gmail.com> Message-ID: <01d501d68573$670a7480$351f5d80$@rainier66.com> From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] black biggies >?Would that be strictly required though? >?Suppose there are two galaxies passing through each other? can?t that result in two black holes passing each other and falling into a death spiral? >?(I?m not up to date on the particulars of this merger) >?SR Ballard Hi SR, ja it could happen that way, but the problem there is that galaxies are not really very closely packed. Two galaxies can pass thru each other, stars get slung all over the place, but actual close encounters between any two stars is very rare. Even then, if the stars came from different galaxies, tightly paired couples which stay in elliptical orbits would be exceedingly rare. To then get another such pair coincidentally in a tight quartet, I can?t see it. But we may eventually be reaching for those kinds of solutions, hard to say. A good way to envision it: image you are in a really good rocket and you launch yourself at really high speed right at the center of a really dense really big galaxy with a 100 trillion stars, such as IC1101: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IC_1101#:~:text=IC%201101%20is%20a%20supergiant,of%20about%20100%20trillion%20stars. If you do that, you will probably pass right through and never get very close to anything. You would likely never get close enough to anything to even cause your path to wobble much. Once you start doing the actual calculations, one risks the dreaded galaxy derangement syndrome: you can?t get your head around it, you just go crazy trying to grasp the scale of it all. Why the hell is all that out there, just sitting there doing nothing useful? Such a tragic waste! Why can?t we somehow put it to work at making us money? The mind boggles. Galaxies are big, but space is bigger. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Mon Sep 7 23:10:54 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2020 16:10:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-07 14:37, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Staggering the imagination is a good thing in science: it indicates > one is about to learn something new and wicked cool. I am getting > that feeling about this. We are about to figure out something really > cool just from this latest event. ?The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not ?Eureka!? (?I found it!?) but rather ?hmm...that?s funny...?? (Asimov) -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 13:11:44 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 21:11:44 +0800 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: "Thanks John and Adrian! John good to see you back, me lad." Spike, thank you! : ) I thought that YT video would catch the interest of the list members. I suppose the young intellectual, Tom Nicholas, is a bit of a European socialist at heart, to dare criticise the darling of our transhumanist hearts, Elon Musk! Lol I had no idea California was suffering from power shortages. Not good... I am sorry to hear that you have an ill relative who has to deal with such conditions. In my case, I bought an air conditioner for my significant other's father, after he spent a month in the hospital due to emphysema. The doctors said that without one, he would probably die. Now the grandkids like to hang out even more with grandpa, and his air conditioned bedroom! The Philippines is very backward in some ways, but people tell me that their power grid is definitely better than it was in years past. What about thorium nuclear reactors? I thought they were the "safe" nuclear alternative. But I suppose it is hard to overcome all the bad press over the decades, due to human and mechanical failure to keep the power of the atom under control. The recent HBO mini-series, Chernobyl, really chilled my blood. If you have not seen it, you must! Some of the best television I have ever watched. I was thrown initially by your usage of the term "coal burners." But yes, the power for those electric cars has to come from somewhere. I was recently on an online forum when a racist fellow said he would never date a woman who was a "coal burner." I brought down the house by saying I understood where he was coming from, and that I also would never date a woman who was not into renewable energy resources such as solar, geo-thermal and wind. ; ) John On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 11:26 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > > > >?I will tell ya about Elon Musk from a neighbor?s eye view. ?All is not > lost. Some is not even really lost, it?s around here somewhere. Just saw > some a while ago. Mr. Musk sold us the coal burners, and Mr. Musk also has > a solution to the dusk power shortage problem for sale. Stand by, for this > post is already too long?spike > > > > > > OK so? lotta locals around here work at Mr. Musk?s factory up the street, > but even those who do not might work making steering wheels and ordering > wheel bearings and making the various electronic gazazzafratzes and things > Mr. Musk puts into his nifty little hotwatt coal burners. > > > > OK, so? that has an impact. We see construction crews all over the place, > cleaning up, fixing up, building backyard granny units, painting, > maintaining, generally improving the neighborhood, anyone who wants a job > can get a job, so? of course we realize that in the long run, all of this > happened because Musk built that factory right here in previously > poverty-stricken Fremont California, cool! > > > > Sure, we have power shortages now, particularly at sunset on hot days, > but? there is a solution to that, and Mr. Musk will sell it to us. > > > > The lithium battery caused an engineering revolution in transportation, > and it also creates a revolution in power. Reasoning: as we lean toward > green power, there are engineering tradeoffs. The cost goes up and the > reliability goes down (because renewable sources are intermittent (the sun > doesn?t always shine and the wind doesn?t always blow.)) > > > > All is not lost, not even some really: we understand that energy storage > systems are needed. Energy storage is inherently expensive, and it makes > economic sense for the power company to tolerate blackouts rather than run > up the power even higher building mass energy storage. So? they go that > route. > > > > Having the power go out impacts some customers more than others: a lot of > us work from home or study from home. So we have our own generators, but > those only run the refrigerator and the laptop computers. In the last > coupla, I have fired up mine trice. The neighbors on either side and over > the back fence already know that sound and what it means: Plug in your > refrigerator and phone charger strip to a powerstrip, drop the cord over > the fence, spike will plug it in, keep four refrigerators and I don?t even > know how many phones and laptops running, and if you have a laptop, you > don?t really need lights, ja? All of that, using just a little cheap > camper generator. > > > > OK, well sure, but that is noisy and undignified, ja? > > > > So? Mr. Musk offers a nifty (expensive but hip) solution called the Power > Wall. It is little more than a bunch of Tesla batteries that is part of > your house. It has its own high capacity inverter and all that, so if (eh? > when) the power goes out, no problem, your good old Power Wall keeps all > your stuff (except the AC) going right on as if nothing happened, and if > you really have a lot of money it can even run your AC. > > > > The cool fun part of all this is that the individual proles pay for those > depending on how much the can tolerate a power outage. I will not buy one > because I don?t own a coal burner (outta my price range) and with a bit of > grit and determination, I can survive for a few hours without the ability > to post a big breezy commentary to ExI. > > > > Meanwhile, none of this required any political intervention, those willing > and able to pay did so, the poorer of us see our power bills go down (mine > did), my more capital-enabled neighbors buy the Power Wall, Mr. Musk gets > still richer, some of that trickles back down, neighborhoods are spruced > up, construction crews are busy, and? we (indirectly) are enabled to > install more green and renewable energy sources because we have increasing > ability to deal with power intermittence which is what limited green energy > sources all along. > > > > Sheesh, how often does THIS happen? Eeeeverybody wins! The poor, the > rich, the EVERYBODY who likes to breath cleaner air, the everybody. Cool! > All you proles with more money than you know what to do with, please go buy > a Tesla. > > > > Thank you Mr. Musk. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 14:37:30 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 07:37:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Grigg via extropy-chat Sent: Tuesday, September 8, 2020 6:12 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: John Grigg Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk "Thanks John and Adrian! John good to see you back, me lad." >?Spike, thank you! : ) I thought that YT video would catch the interest of the list members. I suppose the young intellectual, Tom Nicholas, is a bit of a European socialist at heart, to dare criticise the darling of our transhumanist hearts, Elon Musk! Lol ? >?I was thrown initially by your usage of the term "coal burners." But yes, the power for those electric cars has to come from somewhere. I was recently on an online forum when a racist fellow said he would never date a woman who was a "coal burner." I brought down the house by saying I understood where he was coming from, and that I also would never date a woman who was not into renewable energy resources such as solar, geo-thermal and wind. ; ) John Hi John, I was not aware of the British use of the term until it was pointed out to me by a kindhearted British lad hoping to save me from embarrassment, and have since decided to come up with an alternative which is really more descriptive anyway, the hotwatt, since the Tesla is a racy little rig with no rods. The Brits have a funny way of speaking, which is why I had to stop referring to my own favorite distraction of amateur entomology as buggery. I am told they have an alternative definition. On the other hand? if we nuke greens get our way, then the Teslas can be referred to as atom burners. Regarding the power shortages: California bet long on renewable energy. Hot dry breezy day, skies are clear, solar farms and wind farms churn out the watts, air conditioners grind away in the city, life is good, Ja? Wellll? we have standards for power line capacity, but under certain conditions they can temporarily overdrive them, and do, such as on a clear sunny breezy day for instance. This combines crackly powerlines, strained transmission towers and smoking hot transformers, everything that moves power from out there to in here, with? ideal conditions for wildfire. Result: forests burn, homes burn, lives are lost. Power company sued. Power company agrees to not overdrive those lines and transformers, and suddenly?.we no longer lack renewable power, we have too much of it, at least under optimal conditions for renewable power generation. So? while one faction of green is demanding more renewable energy, another faction is demanding less of it. We nuke greens don?t have all the answers either: any nuke plant needs to be way to heck and gone away from population centers (the faceless masses won?t even allow hyperbolic cooling towers even for a natural gas peaker plant) so that sets up reliance on long transmission lines, which sometimes cause fires, and those fires start under conditions which transform them from an inconvenience into a horrifying nightmare. Meanwhile? people come from all over the planet to live in Nerdvana where we have all this cool high-tech gee-whiz while we struggle to supply the electrical power to run it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 15:06:17 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 10:06:17 -0500 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: So, Spike, rather than use your generator, why not put solar cells on your roof? You are a cheapo like me and in the long run you will save $$$. Probably could not run a compressor? bill w On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 9:39 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *John Grigg via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Tuesday, September 8, 2020 6:12 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Cc:* John Grigg > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk > > > > "Thanks John and Adrian! John good to see you back, me lad." > > > > >?Spike, thank you! : ) I thought that YT video would catch the interest > of the list members. I suppose the young intellectual, Tom Nicholas, is a > bit of a European socialist at heart, to dare criticise the darling of our > transhumanist hearts, Elon Musk! Lol > > ? > > > > >?I was thrown initially by your usage of the term "coal burners." But > yes, the power for those electric cars has to come from somewhere. I was > recently on an online forum when a racist fellow said he would never date a > woman who was a "coal burner." I brought down the house by saying I > understood where he was coming from, and that I also would never date a > woman who was not into renewable energy resources such as solar, > geo-thermal and wind. ; ) > > > > John > > > > > > > > > > Hi John, > > > > I was not aware of the British use of the term until it was pointed out to > me by a kindhearted British lad hoping to save me from embarrassment, and > have since decided to come up with an alternative which is really more > descriptive anyway, the hotwatt, since the Tesla is a racy little rig with > no rods. > > > > The Brits have a funny way of speaking, which is why I had to stop > referring to my own favorite distraction of amateur entomology as buggery. > I am told they have an alternative definition. > > > > On the other hand? if we nuke greens get our way, then the Teslas can be > referred to as atom burners. > > > > Regarding the power shortages: California bet long on renewable energy. > Hot dry breezy day, skies are clear, solar farms and wind farms churn out > the watts, air conditioners grind away in the city, life is good, Ja? > > > > Wellll? we have standards for power line capacity, but under certain > conditions they can temporarily overdrive them, and do, such as on a clear > sunny breezy day for instance. This combines crackly powerlines, strained > transmission towers and smoking hot transformers, everything that moves > power from out there to in here, with? ideal conditions for wildfire. > > > > Result: forests burn, homes burn, lives are lost. Power company sued. > Power company agrees to not overdrive those lines and transformers, and > suddenly?.we no longer lack renewable power, we have too much of it, at > least under optimal conditions for renewable power generation. > > > > So? while one faction of green is demanding more renewable energy, another > faction is demanding less of it. > > > > We nuke greens don?t have all the answers either: any nuke plant needs to > be way to heck and gone away from population centers (the faceless masses > won?t even allow hyperbolic cooling towers even for a natural gas peaker > plant) so that sets up reliance on long transmission lines, which sometimes > cause fires, and those fires start under conditions which transform them > from an inconvenience into a horrifying nightmare. > > > > Meanwhile? people come from all over the planet to live in Nerdvana where > we have all this cool high-tech gee-whiz while we struggle to supply the > electrical power to run it. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 15:47:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 08:47:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <002a01d685f7$5f22f0b0$1d68d210$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk >?So, Spike, rather than use your generator, why not put solar cells on your roof? You are a cheapo like me and in the long run you will save $$$. Probably could not run a compressor? bill w BillW if I had enough money to buy rooftop solar panels, I wouldn?t spend it on that. I would spend that on additional efficiency upgrades on my house, such as full attic ventilation (which I may do anyway) and window upgrades. Reason: I am good with a spreadsheet. Plenty of people around here went for rooftop solar when the power company and state government were offering incentives that added up to nearly half the cost for some consumers, but those incentives expire (no surprises, they told us the expiration dates.) People who know how to do a spreadsheet did spreadsheets and recognized that rooftop solar is only a payback under certain not all that common conditions: you have a lot of south-facing roof area for instance where there is little risk from trees growing into your sun path and low risk of the trees dropping stuff on your panels, all the real-world limitations, and after all that? if someone does the spreadsheets, it becomes clear that to make it pencil out, one must choose the less reliable, shorter-lived, lower efficiency but much lower cost panels. Hmmm, damn. (There?s a reason for all this, available on request.) Well? the power company knows this too, as well as these local companies who work deals to do the installation free, the panels are free, your maintenance and equipment (such as inverters) are actually rented, so all of it costs the homeowner nothing up front, and the company pays a monthly fee (a pittance of course) but there it is: no upfront cost to the homeowner and she gets a check for allll thaaaat power she generates on the roof, oh how green it is. Well, so it would seem, but? those ?free? panels are relatively low efficiency and (in accordance with the contract) the homeowner may not remove those panels if they go to sell the house and part of the buying public doesn?t want a house with those up there. Then the homeowner has to pay the solar power company to come out and take their panels down and buy her way out of what amounts to a 20 year lease on their own roof. Meanwhile? some people did buy their own panels, pay to have them installed, only to find out? they don?t generate as much power as the glossy pamphlets claimed they would, which spawned a new industry: these fellers come out, take those panels off your house, free! They keep the panels of course, but now you have your roof back, ready for repairs from where the panels were mounted. These fellers will even buy your inverter and take those copper cables off your hands, and evem give you a few hundred bucks. So you get five cents on the dollar back from your rooftop solar misadventure. But before I go on, sounding as if I am disparaging all rooftop solar, I am not. I am disparaging it when the engineering is done incorrectly. But there are a few cases where it does pay and does make sense. It will make sense if the cost of power triples. For now, not really in most cases. Suburban roofs aren?t usually enough area, it is too tree-ey down in there and most roofs are not oriented optimally. A few are. A few homeowners know how to do the calcs, and of course some of those will recognize an even greener solution: rooftop water heating, which is extremely green but is even uglier than rooftop solar. Conclusion: if you hire people to install rooftop anything, they will sell you a system which maximizes profit to them, not to you. If so, there is a very good chance you will be paying again to hire guys to take it back down within a decade. We are not there yet on suburban green energy. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 15:55:24 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 11:55:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: <002a01d685f7$5f22f0b0$1d68d210$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> <002a01d685f7$5f22f0b0$1d68d210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: +1. This post is a great summary of caveat emptor around solar. I'm also not knocking it, but like many green initiatives, it doesn't make sense without heavy subsidies out of the tax payer's pocket. I bought a hybrid around the time of cash for clunkers because we had a junker we got paid a ton for under that wasteful program, plus a very large federal incentive at the time for green vehicles that put the cost of the hybrid below the cost of the internal combustion only. Putting aside the politics of taxpayers being forced to subsidize green technologies, I haven't found many of them make financial sense without it. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:48 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk > > > > >?So, Spike, rather than use your generator, why not put solar cells on > your roof? You are a cheapo like me and in the long run you will save > $$$. Probably could not run a compressor? > > > > bill w > > > > BillW if I had enough money to buy rooftop solar panels, I wouldn?t spend > it on that. > > > > I would spend that on additional efficiency upgrades on my house, such as > full attic ventilation (which I may do anyway) and window upgrades. > Reason: I am good with a spreadsheet. > > > > Plenty of people around here went for rooftop solar when the power company > and state government were offering incentives that added up to nearly half > the cost for some consumers, but those incentives expire (no surprises, > they told us the expiration dates.) People who know how to do a > spreadsheet did spreadsheets and recognized that rooftop solar is only a > payback under certain not all that common conditions: you have a lot of > south-facing roof area for instance where there is little risk from trees > growing into your sun path and low risk of the trees dropping stuff on your > panels, all the real-world limitations, and after all that? if someone does > the spreadsheets, it becomes clear that to make it pencil out, one must > choose the less reliable, shorter-lived, lower efficiency but much lower > cost panels. Hmmm, damn. (There?s a reason for all this, available on > request.) > > > > Well? the power company knows this too, as well as these local companies > who work deals to do the installation free, the panels are free, your > maintenance and equipment (such as inverters) are actually rented, so all > of it costs the homeowner nothing up front, and the company pays a monthly > fee (a pittance of course) but there it is: no upfront cost to the > homeowner and she gets a check for allll thaaaat power she generates on the > roof, oh how green it is. > > > > Well, so it would seem, but? those ?free? panels are relatively low > efficiency and (in accordance with the contract) the homeowner may not > remove those panels if they go to sell the house and part of the buying > public doesn?t want a house with those up there. Then the homeowner has to > pay the solar power company to come out and take their panels down and buy > her way out of what amounts to a 20 year lease on their own roof. > > > > Meanwhile? some people did buy their own panels, pay to have them > installed, only to find out? they don?t generate as much power as the > glossy pamphlets claimed they would, which spawned a new industry: these > fellers come out, take those panels off your house, free! They keep the > panels of course, but now you have your roof back, ready for repairs from > where the panels were mounted. These fellers will even buy your inverter > and take those copper cables off your hands, and evem give you a few > hundred bucks. So you get five cents on the dollar back from your rooftop > solar misadventure. > > > > But before I go on, sounding as if I am disparaging all rooftop solar, I > am not. I am disparaging it when the engineering is done incorrectly. But > there are a few cases where it does pay and does make sense. It will make > sense if the cost of power triples. For now, not really in most cases. > Suburban roofs aren?t usually enough area, it is too tree-ey down in there > and most roofs are not oriented optimally. A few are. A few homeowners > know how to do the calcs, and of course some of those will recognize an > even greener solution: rooftop water heating, which is extremely green but > is even uglier than rooftop solar. > > > > Conclusion: if you hire people to install rooftop anything, they will sell > you a system which maximizes profit to them, not to you. If so, there is a > very good chance you will be paying again to hire guys to take it back down > within a decade. We are not there yet on suburban green energy. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 16:41:56 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 11:41:56 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: bill w - economics and Italy - column by Krugman ---------- Forwarded message --------- From: Paul Krugman Date: Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:30 AM Subject: G.D.P. and the meaning of life To: Money can?t buy happiness, especially if you?re American. View in browser |nytimes.com Continue reading the main story <#m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-ad-marquee> [image: Paul Krugman] September 8, 2020 People wait in line for food donations in Queens, NY.John Minchillo/Associated Press [image: Author Headshot] By Paul Krugman Opinion Columnist ?I?ve been rich and I?ve been poor,? said Mae West. ?Believe me, rich is better.? Words of wisdom. But getting richer doesn?t necessarily improve your life as much as you?d expect, and what goes for individuals goes double for societies. Today?s column was about what?s happening now, with the economy partially recovering from the coronavirus recession but the lives of millions getting sharply worse. Blame for the extreme current disconnect rests squarely with Donald Trump and his party, who have yanked away the safety net that helped many people cope with bad times. But in fairness, this kind of disconnect isn?t new; it has been an increasingly glaring feature of American society for decades. By the usual measures, the U.S. economy is highly successful. We have the highest GDP per capita of any major nation. Before the coronavirus hit, we had low unemployment. Our tech companies alone are worth more than the entire European stock market . We clearly have the means to live la dolce vita. But do we actually manage to live good lives? Some of us do. Overall, though, America seems to get much less satisfaction out of its wealth than one might have expected. People who make this point often compare us to the Nordic countries, which are success stories by any standard. For today?s newsletter, however, I thought it might be worth comparing us to a country that is widely regarded ? indeed, in some respects really is ? a failure: Italy. Continue reading the main story <#m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-0> ADVERTISEMENT A few weeks ago our own Roger Cohen wrote about Italy?s remarkable cohesiveness in the face of the coronavirus: after a terrible start, the famously fractious nation pulled itself together, and has done a vastly better job of containing the pandemic than we have. (Soon after writing that column, Roger himself was diagnosed with Covid-19 : let?s all wish him the best.) The thing is, among those who study international economics, Italy is best known as a cautionary tale of economic failure. For reasons that are endlessly debated, it somehow seems to have missed out on the information technology revolution. Its economy has stagnated for decades. Incredibly, Italy?s real GDP per capita on the eve of the pandemic was lower than it had been in 2000, even as the same measure rose 25 percent in the U.S.: Italy?s stagnation.World Bank But there?s more to life than money. To take just one crude example, one thing you surely have to do in order to live a good life is, well, not die. And that?s one area in which Italians have been outperforming Americans by an ever-widening margin. In the mid-1980s, the two nations had roughly the same life expectancy. These days Italians can expect to live around 4 ? years longer: Continue reading the main story <#m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-1> ADVERTISEMENT Life is better when you aren?t deadOECD OK, I don?t want to speculate on the hidden strengths of Italian society. But the weaknesses of American society, despite our national wealth, are obvious: Extreme inequality, including racial inequality on a scale whites can find hard to comprehend. A weak social safety net, including a unique failure among advanced countries to guarantee universal health care. Terrible work-life balance, with far less vacation and family time than a wealthy nation should have. And a personal, informal observation: Trump is an extreme case, but we are a nation obsessed with the notion of winners and losers. The nature of my various careers has brought me into contact with a number of extremely successful people, in various walks in life, and what always strikes me is how insecure many of them are, because there?s always another money manager who makes even more billions or another professor who?s won even more prizes. Continue reading the main story <#m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-2> ADVERTISEMENT Imagine what this kind of competitive mentality does to people who aren?t objectively successful, who ? usually through no fault of their own ? have been stranded by economic or social change. Of course, I?m far from the first person to make observations like this. Still, maybe this strange, ugly time in America will help teach us some lessons about building a better society once the pandemic is over. Quick Hits Italy?s economic disease . Italy?s pandemic success . ?Incomes matter , but ?? Drowning in joblessness, swimming in cash . Feedback If you?re enjoying what you?re reading, please consider recommending it to friends. They can sign up here . If you want to share your thoughts on an item in this week?s newsletter or on the newsletter in general, please email me at krugman-newsletter at nytimes.com . Facing the Music Life at the top isn?t always greatYouTube Cole Porter got it . IN THE TIMES With Washington Deadlocked on Aid, States Face Dire Fiscal Crises Local officials are slashing funding for everything from education and health care to orchestra subsidies. By Mary Williams Walsh [image: Article Thumbnail] The Two Men Buying Your Favorite Retailers Jamie Salter and David Simon, one a licensing expert and the other a mall operator, are reshaping the shopping landscape by acquiring bankrupt brands like Brooks Brothers and Forever 21. By Sapna Maheshwari and Vanessa Friedman [image: Article Thumbnail] The Tax Cut for the Rich That Democrats Love Why are party leaders fighting to get rid of one surprisingly progressive element of the 2017 tax bill? By Richard V. Reeves and Christopher Pulliam [image: Article Thumbnail] Dentists Are Seeing an Epidemic of Cracked Teeth. What?s Going On? When I reopened my dental practice in early June, the tooth fractures started coming in: at least one a day, every single day that I?ve been in the office. By Tammy Chen, D.D.S. [image: Article Thumbnail] Read the full Opinion report here. Continue reading the main story <#m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-3> Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for Paul Krugman from The New York Times. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences . Subscribe to The Times Get The New York Times app Connect with us on: [image: facebook] [image: twitter] [image: instagram] Change Your Email Privacy Policy Contact Us California Notices The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 16:55:44 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 09:55:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> <002a01d685f7$5f22f0b0$1d68d210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Counterpoint: my house was the first residential install of solar in Mountain View, back around 2000; I think this might have been early enough the subsidies weren't there yet. Our solar power system has more than paid for itself by now. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 9:00 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > +1. This post is a great summary of caveat emptor around solar. I'm > also not knocking it, but like many green initiatives, it doesn't make > sense without heavy subsidies out of the tax payer's pocket. I bought a > hybrid around the time of cash for clunkers because we had a junker we got > paid a ton for under that wasteful program, plus a very large federal > incentive at the time for green vehicles that put the cost of the hybrid > below the cost of the internal combustion only. Putting aside the > politics of taxpayers being forced to subsidize green technologies, I > haven't found many of them make financial sense without it. > > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:48 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat >> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk >> >> >> >> >?So, Spike, rather than use your generator, why not put solar cells on >> your roof? You are a cheapo like me and in the long run you will save >> $$$. Probably could not run a compressor? >> >> >> >> bill w >> >> >> >> BillW if I had enough money to buy rooftop solar panels, I wouldn?t spend >> it on that. >> >> >> >> I would spend that on additional efficiency upgrades on my house, such as >> full attic ventilation (which I may do anyway) and window upgrades. >> Reason: I am good with a spreadsheet. >> >> >> >> Plenty of people around here went for rooftop solar when the power >> company and state government were offering incentives that added up to >> nearly half the cost for some consumers, but those incentives expire (no >> surprises, they told us the expiration dates.) People who know how to do a >> spreadsheet did spreadsheets and recognized that rooftop solar is only a >> payback under certain not all that common conditions: you have a lot of >> south-facing roof area for instance where there is little risk from trees >> growing into your sun path and low risk of the trees dropping stuff on your >> panels, all the real-world limitations, and after all that? if someone does >> the spreadsheets, it becomes clear that to make it pencil out, one must >> choose the less reliable, shorter-lived, lower efficiency but much lower >> cost panels. Hmmm, damn. (There?s a reason for all this, available on >> request.) >> >> >> >> Well? the power company knows this too, as well as these local companies >> who work deals to do the installation free, the panels are free, your >> maintenance and equipment (such as inverters) are actually rented, so all >> of it costs the homeowner nothing up front, and the company pays a monthly >> fee (a pittance of course) but there it is: no upfront cost to the >> homeowner and she gets a check for allll thaaaat power she generates on the >> roof, oh how green it is. >> >> >> >> Well, so it would seem, but? those ?free? panels are relatively low >> efficiency and (in accordance with the contract) the homeowner may not >> remove those panels if they go to sell the house and part of the buying >> public doesn?t want a house with those up there. Then the homeowner has to >> pay the solar power company to come out and take their panels down and buy >> her way out of what amounts to a 20 year lease on their own roof. >> >> >> >> Meanwhile? some people did buy their own panels, pay to have them >> installed, only to find out? they don?t generate as much power as the >> glossy pamphlets claimed they would, which spawned a new industry: these >> fellers come out, take those panels off your house, free! They keep the >> panels of course, but now you have your roof back, ready for repairs from >> where the panels were mounted. These fellers will even buy your inverter >> and take those copper cables off your hands, and evem give you a few >> hundred bucks. So you get five cents on the dollar back from your rooftop >> solar misadventure. >> >> >> >> But before I go on, sounding as if I am disparaging all rooftop solar, I >> am not. I am disparaging it when the engineering is done incorrectly. But >> there are a few cases where it does pay and does make sense. It will make >> sense if the cost of power triples. For now, not really in most cases. >> Suburban roofs aren?t usually enough area, it is too tree-ey down in there >> and most roofs are not oriented optimally. A few are. A few homeowners >> know how to do the calcs, and of course some of those will recognize an >> even greener solution: rooftop water heating, which is extremely green but >> is even uglier than rooftop solar. >> >> >> >> Conclusion: if you hire people to install rooftop anything, they will >> sell you a system which maximizes profit to them, not to you. If so, there >> is a very good chance you will be paying again to hire guys to take it back >> down within a decade. We are not there yet on suburban green energy. >> >> >> >> spike >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 17:26:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 10:26:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> <005801d685ed$95952050$c0bf60f0$@rainier66.com> <002a01d685f7$5f22f0b0$1d68d210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <002e01d68605$1f4ee170$5deca450$@rainier66.com> ?> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk Counterpoint: my house was the first residential install of solar in Mountain View, back around 2000; I think this might have been early enough the subsidies weren't there yet. Our solar power system has more than paid for itself by now. By all means Adrian do let me be the first to agree, if the engineering is done right and the right products are purchased, then rooftop solar power does make sense. If you have home storage and a means of dumping your own power into your own hotwatt, it makes even more sense: you don?t need to buy the load-leveling service the power company provides for every watt you dump into that car. The problem I see currently with rooftop solar is that in too many cases the customer wants to do the engineering for the company, and too often do it wrong. They make absurd demands, they buy the wrong equipment, they just do everything unlike the way I can easily envision you doing that, which is to listen to what the solar company says and have enough brains to see what makes the most sense for your house. If you have enough room in your backyard for a sun tracker mount for instance, then there is a high-efficiency panel that costs more but is worth a lot more. But in Mountain View, if your back yard is big enough for that, then, well? you have a lotta money and can afford to do stuff that doesn?t really pencil out. If you have south facing exposure, a lot of it, your roof peak goes east/west, then there is a particular type of flush mount panel (guessing that is what you have) that does make sense. If your roof peak runs north/south, then you must choose if you want to make power in the morning or in the evening, and there are panels tuned for each. I see the real problem is that one size doesn?t fit all. Rooftop solar really does make sense if you buy the lower-end Chinese-made panels, the ones I call the Trabi panels. Depending on how your house is oriented and the trees around it, and the tax incentive and the power company incentives, those do make sense, even though they are lower efficiency. It is so true in rooftop solar: everything should be as simple as possible, but not simpler. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 18:29:39 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 14:29:39 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: I'm glad you posted that Bill, I would've gotten into trouble if I had. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 18:45:05 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 14:45:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: As usual, Krugman has his head planted squarely up his backside in regard to both issues discussed. Locking down entire states has turned out to be for pretty close to nothing with disastrous economic consequences. If you remove deaths caused by Cuomo's death edict in regard to nursing homes ( https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f), the number drops significantly arguing further against any benefit from lockdowns. I would suggest following the work of Alex Berenson (former NY times reporter) for what is really going on around CV-19. As far as life expectancy goes, you can thank Perdue pharmaceuticals for a significant drop in it in the US, along with rising suicides due in part to a decades long hollowing out of the American middle class and nuclear family. Trump bears little responsibility for either set of statistics, but Krugman is a long time member of the Orange Man Bad / TDS posse so I'm not surprised his latest drivel reflects this. YMMV. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 12:42 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > bill w - economics and Italy - column by Krugman > > ---------- Forwarded message --------- > From: Paul Krugman > Date: Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:30 AM > Subject: G.D.P. and the meaning of life > To: > > > Money can?t buy happiness, especially if you?re American. > View in browser > > |nytimes.com > > Continue reading the main story > <#m_3244595216504536499_m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-ad-marquee> > [image: Paul Krugman] > > > September 8, 2020 > People wait in line for food donations in Queens, NY.John > Minchillo/Associated Press > [image: Author Headshot] > > > By Paul Krugman > > > Opinion Columnist > > ?I?ve been rich and I?ve been poor,? said Mae West. ?Believe me, rich is > better.? Words of wisdom. But getting richer doesn?t necessarily improve > your life as much as you?d expect, and what goes for individuals goes > double for societies. > > Today?s column > > was about what?s happening now, with the economy partially recovering from > the coronavirus recession but the lives of millions getting sharply worse. > Blame for the extreme current disconnect rests squarely with Donald Trump > and his party, who have yanked away the safety net that helped many people > cope with bad times. But in fairness, this kind of disconnect isn?t new; it > has been an increasingly glaring feature of American society for decades. > > By the usual measures, the U.S. economy is highly successful. We have the > highest GDP per capita > > of any major nation. Before the coronavirus hit, we had low unemployment. > Our tech companies alone are worth more than the entire European stock > market > . > We clearly have the means to live la dolce vita. > > But do we actually manage to live good lives? Some of us do. Overall, > though, America seems to get much less satisfaction out of its wealth than > one might have expected. > > People who make this point often compare us to the Nordic countries, which > are success stories by any standard. For today?s newsletter, however, I > thought it might be worth comparing us to a country that is widely regarded > ? indeed, in some respects really is ? a failure: Italy. > Continue reading the main story > <#m_3244595216504536499_m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-0> > ADVERTISEMENT > > A few weeks ago our own Roger Cohen wrote about Italy?s remarkable > cohesiveness > > in the face of the coronavirus: after a terrible start, the famously > fractious nation pulled itself together, and has done a vastly better job > of containing the pandemic than we have. (Soon after writing that column, > Roger himself was diagnosed with Covid-19 > : > let?s all wish him the best.) > > The thing is, among those who study international economics, Italy is best > known as a cautionary tale of economic failure. For reasons that are > endlessly debated, it somehow seems to have missed out on the information > technology revolution. Its economy has stagnated for decades. Incredibly, > Italy?s real GDP per capita on the eve of the pandemic was lower than it > had been in 2000, even as the same measure rose 25 percent in the U.S.: > Italy?s stagnation.World Bank > > But there?s more to life than money. To take just one crude example, one > thing you surely have to do in order to live a good life is, well, not die. > And that?s one area in which Italians have been outperforming Americans by > an ever-widening margin. In the mid-1980s, the two nations had roughly the > same life expectancy. These days Italians can expect to live around 4 ? > years longer: > Continue reading the main story > <#m_3244595216504536499_m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-1> > ADVERTISEMENT > > > > > Life is better when you aren?t deadOECD > > OK, I don?t want to speculate on the hidden strengths of Italian society. > But the weaknesses of American society, despite our national wealth, are > obvious: Extreme inequality, including racial inequality on a scale whites > can find hard to comprehend. A weak social safety net, including a unique > failure among advanced countries to guarantee universal health care. > Terrible work-life balance, with far less vacation and family time than a > wealthy nation should have. > > And a personal, informal observation: Trump is an extreme case, but we are > a nation obsessed with the notion of winners and losers. The nature of my > various careers has brought me into contact with a number of extremely > successful people, in various walks in life, and what always strikes me is > how insecure many of them are, because there?s always another money manager > who makes even more billions or another professor who?s won even more > prizes. > Continue reading the main story > <#m_3244595216504536499_m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-2> > ADVERTISEMENT > > Imagine what this kind of competitive mentality does to people who aren?t > objectively successful, who ? usually through no fault of their own ? have > been stranded by economic or social change. > > Of course, I?m far from the first person to make observations like this. > Still, maybe this strange, ugly time in America will help teach us some > lessons about building a better society once the pandemic is over. > Quick Hits > > Italy?s economic disease > > . > > Italy?s pandemic success > > . > > ?Incomes matter > , > but ?? > > Drowning in joblessness, swimming in cash > > . > Feedback > > If you?re enjoying what you?re reading, please consider recommending it to > friends. They can sign up here > . > If you want to share your thoughts on an item in this week?s newsletter or > on the newsletter in general, please email me at > krugman-newsletter at nytimes.com > > . > Facing the Music > Life at the top isn?t always greatYouTube > > Cole Porter got it > > . > > IN THE TIMES > With Washington Deadlocked on Aid, States Face Dire Fiscal Crises > > Local officials are slashing funding for everything from education and > health care to orchestra subsidies. > > By Mary Williams Walsh > > [image: > Article Thumbnail] > > The Two Men Buying Your Favorite Retailers > > Jamie Salter and David Simon, one a licensing expert and the other a mall > operator, are reshaping the shopping landscape by acquiring bankrupt brands > like Brooks Brothers and Forever 21. > > By Sapna Maheshwari and Vanessa Friedman > > [image: > Article Thumbnail] > > The Tax Cut for the Rich That Democrats Love > > Why are party leaders fighting to get rid of one surprisingly progressive > element of the 2017 tax bill? > > By Richard V. Reeves and Christopher Pulliam > > [image: > Article Thumbnail] > > Dentists Are Seeing an Epidemic of Cracked Teeth. What?s Going On? > > When I reopened my dental practice in early June, the tooth fractures > started coming in: at least one a day, every single day that I?ve been in > the office. > > By Tammy Chen, D.D.S. > > [image: > Article Thumbnail] > > > Read the full Opinion report here. > > Continue reading the main story > <#m_3244595216504536499_m_2416547756608383974_a11y-skip-3> > > Need help? Review our newsletter help page > > or contact us > > for assistance. > > You received this email because you signed up for Paul Krugman from The > New York Times. > > To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe > > or manage your email preferences > > . > > Subscribe to The Times > Get > The New York Times app > > > Connect with us on: > [image: facebook] > [image: > twitter] > [image: > instagram] > > > Change Your Email > Privacy > Policy > Contact > Us > California > Notices > > > The New York Times Company. 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018 > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 19:09:01 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 15:09:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:48 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> As usual, Krugman has his head planted squarely up his backside in > regard to both issues discussed. * > Paul Krugman was the sole recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics in 2008, and Nobel Prizes are not usually given out to people who have their heads up their ass. *> As far as life expectancy goes, you can thank Perdue pharmaceuticals for > a significant drop in it in the US, along with rising suicides* > And nobody can win a Nobel prize if the numbers don't add up in their theory, and in your theory as stated in the above the numbers just don't add up. > > *due in part to a decades long hollowing out of the American middle > class * > If that is true there must be a reason for the hollowing out of the middle class, and I'm sure the fact that the real earning power of the middle class has not increased in decades must've had something to do with it. > *Trump bears little responsibility for either set of statistics, but > Krugman is a long time member of the Orange Man Bad / TDS posse* > There's a lot I'd like to say about that and about He Who Must Not Be Named, but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 19:16:17 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 12:16:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: <002901d68614$8762b7f0$962827d0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat >?There's a lot I'd like to say about that and about He Who Must Not Be Named, but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. John K Clark We have a place for it now! Cool! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 19:33:32 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 15:33:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: I realize we're headed into dangerous waters here, John, and I don't feel like either of us wants to be hit with the iron fist wrapped in velvet of the anonymous mod here, so I will close with two thoughts. Krugman's Nobel in the dismal science was awarded before he lost himself in his politics. When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, my esteem for that organization was greatly reduced. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 3:10 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:48 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *> As usual, Krugman has his head planted squarely up his backside in >> regard to both issues discussed. * >> > > Paul Krugman was the sole recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics in > 2008, and Nobel Prizes are not usually given out to people who have their > heads up their ass. > > *> As far as life expectancy goes, you can thank Perdue pharmaceuticals >> for a significant drop in it in the US, along with rising suicides* >> > > And nobody can win a Nobel prize if the numbers don't add up in their > theory, and in your theory as stated in the above the numbers just don't > add up. > > >> > *due in part to a decades long hollowing out of the American middle >> class * >> > > If that is true there must be a reason for the hollowing out of the middle > class, and I'm sure the fact that the real earning power of the middle > class has not increased in decades must've had something to do with it. > > > *Trump bears little responsibility for either set of statistics, but >> Krugman is a long time member of the Orange Man Bad / TDS posse* >> > > There's a lot I'd like to say about that and about He Who Must Not Be > Named, > but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Tue Sep 8 19:47:35 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 15:47:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> References: <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked to More Than 260,000 Coronavirus Cases, Economists Estimate https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-more-260000-coronavirus-cases-economists-estimate-1530331 Estimate by German economists. > On Sep 3, 2020, at 6:32 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? > > > > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat > > >?Big thinkers, think big please. If that?s it, what do we do next? If we need another test, what test? How? > >?I doubt it's just sunlight. > > Contributing factor? I fear it is wishful thinking on my part. > > >?Is the habitual long ride created a selection bias that this population is not as susceptible to the health conditions that would otherwise have been covid-exploitive?... > > I sure woulda thought of that population segment is more susceptible rather than less. > > >?So is it the motorcycle that affords covid protection or something else that bikers have in common? > > Hard to say Mike. I can see some pre-selection of people healthy enough to ride a long distance. > > But consider these numbers. The reports are coming in now, with what looks like 260 total infections at Sturgis. > > If we use about 50k new cases per day was a US average at that time. During the 7 day rally, it is reasonable to expect about 350k infections in the US. So any randomly chosen half million Americans should see about 500 infections in that week, ja? Reasoning: there are about 330 megaproles in the USA. Take half a million randomly chosen Americans, we should see about 500 infections that week, perhaps a few more, but close enough. > > We are seeing about 260 from the rally, about half the average of the USA. > > So if we should expect from any randomly-chosen half megaprole, we expect about one fatality per day. We are seeing one so far, for the entire month of August. > > This looks to me like the infection rate is half the expected value and the fatality rate is less than a tenth the expected value, even ignoring the age factor and the non-mask wearing. > > Interesting aside: the way the mainstream media is talking about that one Sturgis fatality: oh swoon, such a tragedy, so unnecessary is that fatality. But they are not celebrating the other 10-20 who would have caught had they stayed home. Do their lives not matter? Far too many people cannot or will not go thru the calculation for how many cases and how many deaths we should expect in any random sample of half a million. Has anyone seen a news story celebrating that low case rate and low death rate? > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 19:53:07 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 12:53:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <001d01d68619$ac7f8130$057e8390$@rainier66.com> From: Henry Rivera Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked to More Than 260,000 Coronavirus Cases, Economists Estimate https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-more-260000-coronavirus-cases-economists-estimate-1530331 Estimate by German economists? Economists? Don?t they have der epidemiologists in Germany? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 20:24:30 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 16:24:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Or, perhaps we are overlooking that the bikers who did go (versus the ones that didn?t) were likely a self-selected younger, fitter crowd from within the larger population of Sturgis goers. Groups with higher risk likely stayed home. Maybe. SR Ballard > On Sep 5, 2020, at 12:57 PM, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > > >> On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 11:15 AM Keith Henson wrote: >> >> Some time ago (at least a year) I was impressed by an article (in >> Science I think) which discussed positive selection of genes from >> Neanderthals. The article noted that around 6000 genes (of the 20,000 >> active in humans) were associated with virus resistance, about half >> against DNA and half against RNA viruses. Wow. Close to 1/3 of the >> human genome is associated with virus resistance. > > Very interesting, thanks for sharing this. I don't know if this is the same article as I didn't read it at the time, but this is as close as I could find https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)31095-X#secsectitle0100. It's certainly in the same ballpark if not the exact paper. This idea also dovetails nicely with the evolution of sexual reproduction itself under the Red Queen hypothesis. Parasites are another very interesting related area of study in terms of driving evolution. I must admit I have been both fascinated and horrified by them for a very long time. The movie Alien of course didn't help. Zimmer's 'Parasite Rex' is an easy read for anyone interested in broaching the subject, although it is a little long in the tooth at this point. > > I also recently saw that Candida (a fungus family) is making a comeback. There is an interesting hypothesis that mammalian (and in particular human) body temperatures are particularly hostile to most fungus because the majority of them don't do well at higher temperatures. The hypothesis is that warming global temperatures have selected for Candida that is heat resistant which doesn't bode well for us based on our limited abilities to combat fungus pharmaceutically. Hopefully, we'll see more research dollars thrown at it somewhat proactively: > > "Six years ago, a new infection began popping up in four different hospitals on three different continents, all around the same time. It wasn?t a bacteria, or a virus. It was ... a killer fungus. No one knew where it came from, or why. Today, the story of an ancient showdown between fungus and mammals that started when dinosaurs disappeared from the earth. Back then, the battle swung in our favor (spoiler alert!) and we?ve been hanging onto that win ever since. But one scientist suggests that the rise of this new infectious fungus indicates our edge is slipping, degree by increasing degree." > > https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/fungus-amungus > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 20:32:52 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 16:32:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> Spike, correlation does not imply causation. The states probably didn?t shut down simply because they didn?t need to. About half of them have very low population density, and have a lack of cities. SR Ballard > On Sep 7, 2020, at 12:02 AM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Keith Henson > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox > > You are too early in counting biker death by weeks. > > Keith > > > > > Hi Keith, > > Why are we counting the one guy? What is the range when we can start to when we can end that count? Isn't it too soon on him? How do we know he didn't catch at home before the rally? And if he did catch before the rally, there should have been others who caught before the rally and are dying now. Perhaps that's the preselection effect. > > The Sturgis rally was in South Dakota, one of seven states which did not issue shutdown orders. South Dakota was (I think) the only state which shut down nothing. The other six states had very limited shutdowns and no stay-home orders. > > The states which did not shut down, ranked by covid deaths per million population are > > Iowa Rank 23 death per million 396 > Arkansas Rank 30 death per million 296 > Nebraska Rank 38 death per million 209 > North Dakota Rank 39 death per million 205 > South Dakota Rank 41 death per million 196 > Utah Rank 44 death per million 132 > Wyoming Rank 49 death per million 73 > > US average covid death per million: 584 > > Source: > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ > > OK then. States which did not shut down didn't really have all that much in fatalities per million. > > I have some ponderin to do. > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Tue Sep 8 20:37:41 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 16:37:41 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <2EF93C14-C78B-4A62-B1CB-95D6E94A1B75@alumni.virginia.edu> https://www.iheart.com/content/2020-09-08-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-to-20-of-us-covid-19-cases-in-august/ Spike makes a good point. This one has a comment at the end by an epidemiologist. At this point, the results do not align with the impacts of the rally among attendees in the state of South Dakota," epidemiologist Dr. Joshua Clayton told KELO. >> On Sep 8, 2020, at 4:24 PM, SR Ballard via extropy-chat wrote: > ?Or, perhaps we are overlooking that the bikers who did go (versus the ones that didn?t) were likely a self-selected younger, fitter crowd from within the larger population of Sturgis goers. Groups with higher risk likely stayed home. > > Maybe. > > SR Ballard > >>> On Sep 5, 2020, at 12:57 PM, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> >>>> On Sat, Sep 5, 2020 at 11:15 AM Keith Henson wrote: >>> >>> Some time ago (at least a year) I was impressed by an article (in >>> Science I think) which discussed positive selection of genes from >>> Neanderthals. The article noted that around 6000 genes (of the 20,000 >>> active in humans) were associated with virus resistance, about half >>> against DNA and half against RNA viruses. Wow. Close to 1/3 of the >>> human genome is associated with virus resistance. >> >> Very interesting, thanks for sharing this. I don't know if this is the same article as I didn't read it at the time, but this is as close as I could find https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)31095-X#secsectitle0100. It's certainly in the same ballpark if not the exact paper. This idea also dovetails nicely with the evolution of sexual reproduction itself under the Red Queen hypothesis. Parasites are another very interesting related area of study in terms of driving evolution. I must admit I have been both fascinated and horrified by them for a very long time. The movie Alien of course didn't help. Zimmer's 'Parasite Rex' is an easy read for anyone interested in broaching the subject, although it is a little long in the tooth at this point. >> >> I also recently saw that Candida (a fungus family) is making a comeback. There is an interesting hypothesis that mammalian (and in particular human) body temperatures are particularly hostile to most fungus because the majority of them don't do well at higher temperatures. The hypothesis is that warming global temperatures have selected for Candida that is heat resistant which doesn't bode well for us based on our limited abilities to combat fungus pharmaceutically. Hopefully, we'll see more research dollars thrown at it somewhat proactively: >> >> "Six years ago, a new infection began popping up in four different hospitals on three different continents, all around the same time. It wasn?t a bacteria, or a virus. It was ... a killer fungus. No one knew where it came from, or why. Today, the story of an ancient showdown between fungus and mammals that started when dinosaurs disappeared from the earth. Back then, the battle swung in our favor (spoiler alert!) and we?ve been hanging onto that win ever since. But one scientist suggests that the rise of this new infectious fungus indicates our edge is slipping, degree by increasing degree." >> >> https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/fungus-amungus >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 20:47:45 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 15:47:45 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, my esteem for that organization was greatly reduced. dylan the Peace Prize has always been a political tool, unlike,I hope, the other awards. Obama got it because he was black, excuse me, Black. Does anyone think any differently? bill w On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:37 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I realize we're headed into dangerous waters here, John, and I don't feel > like either of us wants to be hit with the iron fist wrapped in velvet of > the anonymous mod here, so I will close with two thoughts. > > Krugman's Nobel in the dismal science was awarded before he lost himself > in his politics. When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, my esteem for that > organization was greatly reduced. > > > > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 3:10 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:48 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >> *> As usual, Krugman has his head planted squarely up his backside in >>> regard to both issues discussed. * >>> >> >> Paul Krugman was the sole recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics in >> 2008, and Nobel Prizes are not usually given out to people who have >> their heads up their ass. >> >> *> As far as life expectancy goes, you can thank Perdue pharmaceuticals >>> for a significant drop in it in the US, along with rising suicides* >>> >> >> And nobody can win a Nobel prize if the numbers don't add up in their >> theory, and in your theory as stated in the above the numbers just don't >> add up. >> >> >>> > *due in part to a decades long hollowing out of the American middle >>> class * >>> >> >> If that is true there must be a reason for the hollowing out of the >> middle class, and I'm sure the fact that the real earning power of the >> middle class has not increased in decades must've had something to do with >> it. >> >> > *Trump bears little responsibility for either set of statistics, but >>> Krugman is a long time member of the Orange Man Bad / TDS posse* >>> >> >> There's a lot I'd like to say about that and about He Who Must Not Be >> Named, >> but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. >> >> John K Clark >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 20:56:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 13:56:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> Message-ID: <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: SR Ballard Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox Spike, correlation does not imply causation. The states probably didn?t shut down simply because they didn?t need to. About half of them have very low population density, and have a lack of cities. SR Ballard Ja. Dense packing is a big factor, perhaps the most important one. Clearly we have dense packing in a nursing home. We had dense packing at Sturgis. We have dense packing on subways. I don't know what else to do but watch and wait. Interesting aside: California is a state which has nearly as much variation by county as the US has by state. Some counties, such as Los Angeles, are packed to the rafters nearly everywhere. But up in the northeast part of the state, you will find some of the loneliest most sparsely populated places anywhere in the country. Several counties up that way never had a covid fatality. Plenty of those counties really don't have the option to shut down their economies, because that is the lifeline of many of the residents there. So... California decided to empower the county health departments. However... counties are not uniform either. Elon Musk is down on the southern edge of the county in a place where it looks like the border kinda just wandered down and accidentally took in his factory. That county takes in the densely populated east side of the Bay, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Newark, those kindsa places. Musk made his factory safe by eliminating the need for people to ever come in close contact, then opened it up in defiance of county rules. The sheriff called him and explained what he was asked to do, Musk met him out in the parking lot, photographers recorded him accepting his 50 dollar fine while shaking rubber gloved hands with the sheriff and everyone in masks. Then it was on with the business of stamping out electric cars. The citation was framed and hung on the wall of Musk's office. How could ya not like that guy? He is feeding thousands of people dependent on Alameda County. spike From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 21:02:42 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 14:02:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <2EF93C14-C78B-4A62-B1CB-95D6E94A1B75@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <2EF93C14-C78B-4A62-B1CB-95D6E94A1B75@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: <00a401d68623$651e9a10$2f5bce30$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again https://www.iheart.com/content/2020-09-08-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-to-20-of-us-covid-19-cases-in-august/ Spike makes a good point. This one has a comment at the end by an epidemiologist. At this point, the results do not align with the impacts of the rally among attendees in the state of South Dakota," epidemiologist Dr. Joshua Clayton told KELO. It might end up dependent on how you look at it. If the background expected case rate for half a million randomly chosen people was about 540 cases, but we can trace about 260 to that event, then der economists in der Deutschland extrapolates that to 260,000 cases traceable to Sturgis, it stands to reason that the same method would extrapolate to 540,000 new cases traceable to not-Sturgis during the same period. Otherwise we would be left trying to figure out what is special about a virus which has been on a motorcycle ride vs one which stayed home. Perhaps it is still better to listen to der epidemiologists, rather than economists und der politicians. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 21:19:16 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 17:19:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: G.D.P. and the meaning of life In-Reply-To: References: <4A.8D.13004.7A1B75F5@bm.mta2vrest.cc.prd.sparkpost> Message-ID: You're right that I'm probably being a little unfair, as I don't confound it with the requirements for the hard science Nobels. I'd put ones for Economics somewhere in the middle. And no, I don't think differently than you on the question you asked, especially considering how quickly they awarded him with it. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 4:52 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, my esteem for that organization was > greatly reduced. dylan > > the Peace Prize has always been a political tool, unlike,I hope, the other > awards. Obama got it because he was black, excuse me, Black. Does anyone > think any differently? bill w > > > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:37 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I realize we're headed into dangerous waters here, John, and I don't feel >> like either of us wants to be hit with the iron fist wrapped in velvet of >> the anonymous mod here, so I will close with two thoughts. >> >> Krugman's Nobel in the dismal science was awarded before he lost himself >> in his politics. When Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, my esteem for that >> organization was greatly reduced. >> >> >> >> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 3:10 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 2:48 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>> *> As usual, Krugman has his head planted squarely up his backside in >>>> regard to both issues discussed. * >>>> >>> >>> Paul Krugman was the sole recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics in >>> 2008, and Nobel Prizes are not usually given out to people who have >>> their heads up their ass. >>> >>> *> As far as life expectancy goes, you can thank Perdue pharmaceuticals >>>> for a significant drop in it in the US, along with rising suicides* >>>> >>> >>> And nobody can win a Nobel prize if the numbers don't add up in their >>> theory, and in your theory as stated in the above the numbers just >>> don't add up. >>> >>> >>>> > *due in part to a decades long hollowing out of the American middle >>>> class * >>>> >>> >>> If that is true there must be a reason for the hollowing out of the >>> middle class, and I'm sure the fact that the real earning power of the >>> middle class has not increased in decades must've had something to do with >>> it. >>> >>> > *Trump bears little responsibility for either set of statistics, but >>>> Krugman is a long time member of the Orange Man Bad / TDS posse* >>>> >>> >>> There's a lot I'd like to say about that and about He Who Must Not Be >>> Named, >>> but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. >>> >>> John K Clark >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 21:26:38 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 16:26:38 -0500 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Spike, correlation does not imply causation. SR Balard This is one of the worst insults I have ever seen in these posts. Why don't you ask him if he understands correlation? bill w On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 3:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: SR Ballard > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox > > Spike, correlation does not imply causation. > > The states probably didn?t shut down simply because they didn?t need to. > > About half of them have very low population density, and have a lack of > cities. > > SR Ballard > > > > Ja. Dense packing is a big factor, perhaps the most important one. > Clearly we have dense packing in a nursing home. We had dense packing at > Sturgis. We have dense packing on subways. > > I don't know what else to do but watch and wait. > > Interesting aside: California is a state which has nearly as much > variation by county as the US has by state. Some counties, such as Los > Angeles, are packed to the rafters nearly everywhere. But up in the > northeast part of the state, you will find some of the loneliest most > sparsely populated places anywhere in the country. Several counties up > that way never had a covid fatality. Plenty of those counties really don't > have the option to shut down their economies, because that is the lifeline > of many of the residents there. So... California decided to empower the > county health departments. > > However... counties are not uniform either. Elon Musk is down on the > southern edge of the county in a place where it looks like the border kinda > just wandered down and accidentally took in his factory. That county takes > in the densely populated east side of the Bay, Oakland, Berkeley, San > Leandro, Newark, those kindsa places. > > Musk made his factory safe by eliminating the need for people to ever come > in close contact, then opened it up in defiance of county rules. The > sheriff called him and explained what he was asked to do, Musk met him out > in the parking lot, photographers recorded him accepting his 50 dollar fine > while shaking rubber gloved hands with the sheriff and everyone in masks. > > Then it was on with the business of stamping out electric cars. The > citation was framed and hung on the wall of Musk's office. How could ya > not like that guy? He is feeding thousands of people dependent on Alameda > County. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 21:56:27 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 14:56:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <000f01d6862a$e80246a0$b806d3e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox Spike, correlation does not imply causation. SR Balard This is one of the worst insults I have ever seen in these posts. Why don't you ask him if he understands correlation? bill w Eh, BillW, I inferred no insult from that. SR is not that way. Besides if she wished to insult, she would take that over to ExiPol where that sorta thing is allowed, or post it offlist. Her point as I interpreted it, is that certain states didn?t need to shut down and really couldn?t anyway: South Dakota is filled with cowboys, well cowhumans in general, who do not look to government for permissions on how they run their business. I look at it this way: lower-ranking beef-industry workers are sometimes referred to as cow-pokes. I would rather not ponder exactly what that particular career requires of those employed in that profession, but if one takes it too literally, it? well? let?s drop it at that please. Where was I? Cowpokes, cowboys, South Dak? Oh yeah, now I remember. Some states are loosely packed and they didn?t get much covid, and never shut down at all because they didn?t need to or didn?t have that option really. This contagion really is all about population density. It isn?t masks, it isn?t even lockdowns exactly. It must jump from sick person to well person, and the only really plausible mechanism I can easily envision is by wafting sneezes, probably indoors. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Tue Sep 8 22:57:13 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 18:57:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> Of course he does Bill! But just because someone knows something doesn?t mean that people don?t get excited and forget to consider it. SR > On Sep 8, 2020, at 5:26 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > Spike, correlation does not imply causation. SR Balard > This is one of the worst insults I have ever seen in these posts. Why don't you ask him if he understands correlation? > > bill w > >> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 3:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: SR Ballard >> Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox >> >> Spike, correlation does not imply causation. >> >> The states probably didn?t shut down simply because they didn?t need to. >> >> About half of them have very low population density, and have a lack of cities. >> >> SR Ballard >> >> >> >> Ja. Dense packing is a big factor, perhaps the most important one. Clearly we have dense packing in a nursing home. We had dense packing at Sturgis. We have dense packing on subways. >> >> I don't know what else to do but watch and wait. >> >> Interesting aside: California is a state which has nearly as much variation by county as the US has by state. Some counties, such as Los Angeles, are packed to the rafters nearly everywhere. But up in the northeast part of the state, you will find some of the loneliest most sparsely populated places anywhere in the country. Several counties up that way never had a covid fatality. Plenty of those counties really don't have the option to shut down their economies, because that is the lifeline of many of the residents there. So... California decided to empower the county health departments. >> >> However... counties are not uniform either. Elon Musk is down on the southern edge of the county in a place where it looks like the border kinda just wandered down and accidentally took in his factory. That county takes in the densely populated east side of the Bay, Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Newark, those kindsa places. >> >> Musk made his factory safe by eliminating the need for people to ever come in close contact, then opened it up in defiance of county rules. The sheriff called him and explained what he was asked to do, Musk met him out in the parking lot, photographers recorded him accepting his 50 dollar fine while shaking rubber gloved hands with the sheriff and everyone in masks. >> >> Then it was on with the business of stamping out electric cars. The citation was framed and hung on the wall of Musk's office. How could ya not like that guy? He is feeding thousands of people dependent on Alameda County. >> >> spike >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 8 23:28:41 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 16:28:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> Message-ID: <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox Of course he does Bill! But just because someone knows something doesn?t mean that people don?t get excited and forget to consider it. SR We are all among friends here. Fair game, play ball! I am seriously questioning the efficacy of the shutdowns, that will freely admit. Those don?t seem to have been such a great solution in the Europeans states either. I can see those do enormous damage that we will be seeing for years to come. Perhaps we will not allow them to recur. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hkeithhenson at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 00:48:31 2020 From: hkeithhenson at gmail.com (Keith Henson) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 17:48:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics. The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion in health-care costs, they wrote. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08 Keith On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 4:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > > > > > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox > > > > Of course he does Bill! But just because someone knows something doesn?t mean that people don?t get excited and forget to consider it. > > SR > > > > > > We are all among friends here. Fair game, play ball! > > I am seriously questioning the efficacy of the shutdowns, that will freely admit. Those don?t seem to have been such a great solution in the Europeans states either. I can see those do enormous damage that we will be seeing for years to come. Perhaps we will not allow them to recur. > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 01:43:44 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 21:43:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I'm curious how they can accurately estimate health care costs. Even assuming their case linkage model is correct, they have little idea how many people will actually end up requiring treatment without detailed demographic info. Instead, I see in the paper they "conservatively" assume that even with no fatalities, it would cost $46,000 per patient in healthcare costs. This is a preposterous number that assumes no asymptomatic cases, and no real insight into how many actually need to be admitted to a hospital. If their case model is anywhere near as sloppy as their cost model, the entire thing is suspect, but I can't speak to that. Maybe someone else here can attempt to pick it apart and see if it holds up. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020, 8:49 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which > drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than > 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute > of Labor Economics. The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion > in health-care costs, they wrote. > > > https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08 > > Keith > > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 4:29 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Behalf Of SR Ballard via extropy-chat > > Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox > > > > > > > > Of course he does Bill! But just because someone knows something doesn?t > mean that people don?t get excited and forget to consider it. > > > > SR > > > > > > > > > > > > We are all among friends here. Fair game, play ball! > > > > I am seriously questioning the efficacy of the shutdowns, that will > freely admit. Those don?t seem to have been such a great solution in the > Europeans states either. I can see those do enormous damage that we will > be seeing for years to come. Perhaps we will not allow them to recur. > > > > spike > > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chatt > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 01:47:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 18:47:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443 AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00ac01d6864b$30e17740$92a465c0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Keith Henson via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics. The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion in health-care costs, they wrote. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08 Keith OK, do let us run with that please. With half a million attendees, somehow we ended up with half of those getting covid? Indeed? Or is there some mysterious multiplication factor? Do let us assume there is, and we don't understand it yet. These economists extrapolated from an estimated 260 cases where bikers are thought to have caught the virus at the rally. This goes thru the mysterious transformation and turns into 250k cases at a cost of 12.2 billion. OK. If we take the background cases in the USA, I am getting about 550k new cases since the start of the rally a month ago yesterday. If we assume 550k new US cases since then and we consider any randomly chosen half million people in the USA would represent about 1/700th of the US population, so we expect that half people to suffer about 800 cases per day, or about 2400 cases per half million since the start of the rally. We have seen what we think are 260 cases linked to Sturgis. So the Sturgis rate is about an eighth what we expect. OK then. If that half million had stayed home, we could expect rather than the 260 cases, 2400, which would leverage mysteriously (according to these economists) about 2.4 million people, at a cost to of an estimated 110 billion dollars. They estimated the cost at 12.2 billion, but had those bikers stayed home, by their estimates we save right at 100 billion dollars. But wait, we are not finished here. We still haven't figured out what is protecting those bikers. Let us go to the US covid death rate. In the approximately 20 days since the end of the rally, there have been about 20,000 US covid fatalities, for an average of about 1000 covid fatalities per day. Any randomly chosen half million Americans then are about 1/700th of the US population, so about... 1.3 fatalities per day average per half million Americans. But so far we have seen among the half million Sturgis goers a fatality total of... 1. So why do these bikers keep not dying? That seems terribly stubborn of those half million bikers to keep not dying while their randomly-chosen half million neighbors keep handing 1.3 proles down into the ground every day. And if the estimated 260 Sturgis new cases cost 12.2 billion in healthcare costs, can we not use the same reasoning to estimate that the Sturgis rally is now saving billions of dollars a day? Why do these bikers keep not dying? spike From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 03:16:30 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2020 20:16:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443 AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox ? >?Instead, I see in the paper they "conservatively" assume that even with no fatalities? Hi Dylan, what if? they never do find enough covid fatalities among the attendees at Sturgis to match the average. We are told there was one so far, but we don?t know if he already had it when he arrived, which isn?t the fault of the rally, it was just something he was doing while the virus was replicating within. If they don?t find some fatalities in those attendees, we have a vaccine, no needles required. >?If their case model is anywhere near as sloppy as their cost model, the entire thing is suspect, but I can't speak to that. Maybe someone else here can attempt to pick it apart and see if it holds up?. This seems so simple to me, even a rocket scientist can understand it. They aren?t comparing it to the average and dividing by 700. Take the US fatality rate and divide by 700, because about 1/700th of the US population went to Sturgis. Take the fatality rate in the US, about 800 a day dead. We should be seeing about 1000/700 or about 1.1 or 1.2 a day from those who attended. So far? 1. Total. 1 guy. Why do these bikers keep not dying? Sure it is too early to tell, OK. But even if we take that into account, there should be fatalities from those who caught it before, went to Sturgis during the incubation period and perished afterwards, which might be what happened to the one feller. Ja? We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 05:01:51 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 01:01:51 -0400 Subject: [ExI] covid again In-Reply-To: <014701d674e4$3e2584a0$ba708de0$@rainier66.com> References: <014701d674e4$3e2584a0$ba708de0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Aug 17, 2020 at 6:19 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > This causes me to speculate: perhaps the most susceptible people caught > it, right up front, and the most likely to perish perished soon afterwards. > ### Covid burned through a lot of nursing homes right from the start, so there you have the high initial CFR, now it's the general public catching up but not getting killed, so there you have the present much lower CFR. We are running out of Covid-susceptible nursing home patients, since so many are already dead or recovered. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 05:27:10 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 01:27:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Moon's Cold Embrace In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 1:47 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote > > > > None of this is impossible, just expensive. ISS costs $100 B. A > > minimal 100 person moon colony might cost one or two trillion. > > > > ### Not if we have a 50 ton 90%-self-replicating technology delivered at > 100$/kg. > > I would like to see a proposal for this device even at the block diagram. > ### Electric front-loader -> solar powered smelter -> metal powders (Al, Fe, Mn, metallic Na for batteries) -> metal printer + care package from Earth -> electric front-loader...... ------------------------------- > Can you think of an example where people live underground for years? > I don't know of any. Even being inside and able to look out windows > causes serious mental problems for a lot of people if they do it too > long. ### I don't believe this is a problem. Lava tubes would offer enough space for those who crave nice views. Return to Earth would be relatively cheap, compared to the cost of the trip up. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 05:49:26 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 01:49:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Moon's Cold Embrace In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 5:20 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > For all but the richest, it'll be a one-way trip - without friends and > family who prefer to stay on Earth (which is almost everyone). > ### The colony would get regular resupply ships which would be running empty on the way back to Earth. Getting workers back down after a tour of duty would be cheap. ---------------------------------- > > Would you go, if it meant you would never see any of your current friends > and family ever again (aside from over video with light lag)? Or could you > perhaps convince your family to move? > > If you could convince your family to move, would you need teachers & > schools for your children? You presumably would work on the necessities of > the colony - helping build more infrastructure, or helping establish that > ROI - but what would your spouse do? Or would this only be for unmarried > folks with weak to no family connections? > ### There are lots of unmarried folks with no family connections. Why wouldn't a spouse be able to find work on the Moon? Spouses on Earth often do. As the current hysteria about classroom infections shows, teachers are not really that much needed. --------------------------- > > And what exactly would you do, with regards to building more > infrastructure or establishing that ROI, that could not be done better by a > robot (perhaps autonomous, perhaps being teleoperated from Earth, whichever > works better)? > ### Escaping from Earth. Yes, a lot of the physical movement and processing of matter would be done by robots but then the same would be the case on Earth in equivalent industries - aren't we often talking about the coming human unemployment? The economic usefulness of humans on the Moon is likely to change in parallel to their usefulness on Earth. For me the selling point is that being on the Moon would mean creating new and increasingly independent societies that could potentially avoid importing the problems that plague Earth. -------------------------------------------- > > > One of the key ideas is that "sets of". Rather than having one monolithic > nanoreplicator, you have vehicles to prospect & mine regolith for useful > ores; refineries & smelters to turn the ores into various types of > feedstock; printers, extruders, & tools to shape the feedstock into useful > components; assembly robots to put them all together; solar panels to power > the whole works; and central computers and communications to guide > everything (with oversight - but not minute-by-minute direction - provided > from Earth). You make sure that each element is a thing that can be fully > constructed by the full set (this is most difficult for the vehicles, which > have many components of their own, but doable). This means you're shipping > up multiple tons for a starter version of this full set, so it's in the > millions of dollars for transportation costs on top of obtaining that > initial set of things, but millions of dollars for a credible plan to > industrialize the Moon can be raised - especially with a good ROI. > ### Exactly. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 05:55:31 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 01:55:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Who has a vote that counts? In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d67182$ec93ba80$c5bb2f80$@rainier66.com> <005f01d671a0$a423bd40$ec6b37c0$@rainier66.com> <000601d671a4$39b7f260$ad27d720$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 4:04 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I think the larger, simpler question is "do masks even work?" I'm not > opposed to trying them because any health risk from wearing one seems low, > That said, there is quite a substantial body of evidence that surgical > masks are not of much value in stopping small infectious agents, let alone > cloth ones and bandannas. It's also a big assumption to believe people are > wearing and handling them properly. > > Like I said, I wear one myself, but I have grown increasingly skeptical > of how much difference they make in transmission. > ### I don't wear a mask except at work where I have to. Some Karens hissed at me in stores but not in the past few weeks. I completely reject the idea that masks control viral spread in most situations, and anyway you should studiously avoid getting yourself in those situations where masks do make a difference. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 06:21:24 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 02:21:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 5:51 PM SR Ballard wrote: > I think shooting Jews during worship counts. > > 2018, 11 dead, > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittsburgh_synagogue_shooting > > 2018 ADL Report > > > https://www.adl.org/news/press-releases/anti-semitic-incidents-remained-at-near-historic-levels-in-2018-assaults > > 2019, 1 dead, > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chabad_of_Poway > > 2019, NYC Report > > > https://forward.com/fast-forward/418047/swastika-graffitti-up-76-since-trump-election-says-nyc-police/ > > 2019, Multiple stabbing in Rabbis house during Channukah > > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monsey_Hanukkah_stabbing > > 2019, 3 dead, > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Jersey_City_shooting > > I don?t find the shooting of my extended social network to be figments of > the Leftist imagination. > ### Most violence against Jews is random, economically motivated, religious or leftist. Nazis were not the only ones who hated Jews. Communists, Catholics, Moslems, they all built their own Jewish cemeteries. What matters is this: If you use non-leftist phraseology while engaging in ideologically motivated activities, the whole might of the US state will be immediately used to crush you, even for mere pamphleteering. If you identify as BLM or Antifa, you can loot, burn, intimidate, beat people up, and the state response will be muted, delayed or even nonexistent. That's why Nazis are a footnote but Antifa is a catalyst that dissolves the tissue of society wherever it touches. The wounds they burned into Seattle, Portland and numerous other cities will fester for a long time. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 06:28:18 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 02:28:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 7:01 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Anyway don't be retarded. Antifa is not a bigger problem than the > alt-right. Both are buzzwords for small but vocal groups of extremists. > The real problem is neither of them, rather, it is how goddamn dumb most > individuals and most governments are. Whether we have anarchy or > totalitarianism is no matter. The issue is ignorance and stupidity and it > will be an issue no matter what until we fix it, form of governance be > damned. > ### Our enemies, the operatives, allies and puppets of the hegemonic state, are using BLM and Antifa as the tip of the spear in an attack on the democratic forces that are still present in some parts of the government. So I agree with you - Antifa is not a problem, since Homeland security knows all their names and could fold the whole bunch in a week - but it is a symptom of pervasive corruption within the government. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 06:53:26 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 02:53:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity? In-Reply-To: References: <005201d67287$79364700$6ba2d500$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Aug 14, 2020 at 8:27 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > It's unlikely Sweden has achieved herd immunity, The most recent studies > indicate only 20% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to the virus, > that's about the same number as those in New York and London, and most > think you need at least 70% to achieve herd immunity. > ### These are silly numbers. But, anyway - why did the new case count in Sweden drop to nearly zero? Did they suddenly start wearing masks not only on buses? Socially distanced themselves even more? Got a visit from the fairy godmother? No - they achieved herd immunity because that's how large epidemics end. The epidemic petering out at 20% cumulative exposure levels proves you don't need 70% for herd immunity, and this level of herd immunity is very similar to the regular flu. ------------------------------- > As for deaths per 100,000 people, Sweden had 57, Norway had 5, Denmark had > 11, the UK had 70, and the US had 50. But of course this pandemic is far > from over so it will be sometime before we know what the final butcher's > bill is. > > ### Yes, there are these order-of-magnitude differences in fatality rates between seemingly similar countries, not in the least explained by government policies. Is Norway and a bunch of other European countries going to smolder for the next couple of years until they get to the same level of immunity as the countries that were hit harder? Future will tell. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:14:59 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:14:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Warfare is learned behaviour - not evolutionary In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Aug 20, 2020 at 11:25 AM BillK via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Humans aren?t inherently selfish ? we?re actually hardwired to work > together > August 20, 2020 > > Author Steve Taylor > Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Leeds Beckett University ### This guy is an idiot. We are actually hardwired to work together to kill people. See "The Goodness Paradox" by Richard Wrangham. The book presents a compelling argument that the goodness of humans (who are quite gentle as compared to apes) is due to self-domestication which in turn was made possible by intra-group lethal coalitionary violence - i.e. the meek men working together to kill troublesome men. I warmly recommend the book. Very well argued with lots of details and tidbits, including descriptions of the "ball game" played by chimps, and the "blowhole" game played by dolphins. Entertaining and enlightening. It is strange to think that our niceness was made possible by widespread killing in cold blood over hundreds of thousands of years but once you think it through, it makes great sense. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:25:50 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:25:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Warfare is learned behaviour - not evolutionary In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Aug 21, 2020 at 7:18 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Aug 20, 2020 at 8:50 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> Stop right there: Food has NEVER been plentiful. Why? if it was, >> then the women got busy making more kids who ate the food. >> > > Food is plentiful in the US now and the birth rate isn't skyrocketing. > ### It is skyrocketing among the Amish, who protect themselves from the antinatalist effects of mass modern culture. Reverend Malthus was not wrong - under natural conditions animals, including humans breed to fill the carrying capacity of their environment. It's just we don't live under natural conditions anymore, and modern life seems to be quite harmful to the survival of most humans' genes. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:42:23 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:42:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Did Evolution produce a gene for good soldiers? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Aug 22, 2020 at 4:41 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sat, Aug 22, 2020 at 4:01 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > >> *Males might as well fight on to the death since that's what is going to >> happen to them if they werecaptured.* > > > But those males had mothers, and they had genes not to fight to the > death, and so there was a 50% chance the males inherited them from her, the > males also had fathers, and they may have had those same "not to fight to > the death" genes for the very same reason. > ### Obviously, the expression of psychological traits is modified by gender and by individual ontogeny, among others. A "Stockholm gene" will be more activated in a female in response to the typical female regulatory stimuli, such as high levels of estrogen, but not in a male, just like the genes for breast growth. A set of psychological adaptations to individual relative physical weakness (such as submissiveness, anxiety, high levels of arousal) will be activated by the personal experience of being physically dominated by others since childhood. Genes "know" in what kind of a body they are in and they "act" accordingly. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:53:04 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:53:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] eximod & Exi Political Posting (two subjects combined) In-Reply-To: <8dbea33ff814dcbf9938ccbb6b0b7812@ultimax.com> References: <8dbea33ff814dcbf9938ccbb6b0b7812@ultimax.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Aug 23, 2020 at 4:10 PM Robert G. Kennedy III, PE via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > For those of you who haven't read the book, it is the best one Vinge > ever wrote. So far. IMHO. > ### Yes! > Polarizing and partitioning *any* competing society with "wedge issues" > is in general an avowed goal and century-plus-long practice of what used > to be called the /oprichnina/ under the tsars, then CheKa then OGPU then > NKVD/MVD then KGB now FSB, plus their military brethren in the GRU. To > the guys who run /dezinformatisya/ campaigns (that word in Russian has > never changed) and are playing the long game, chaos is a perfectly > acceptable even desirable outcome, regardless whether or not one faction > is aligned with Russian interests. > The *only* antidote in reach is sunlight and openness, and a commitment > to the basic principles of self-governance. > ### Absolutely! Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:56:51 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:56:51 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Diaspora In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Aug 23, 2020 at 5:21 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > How about a new subject? > > ?Diaspora? by Greg Egan is among my favorite fictions. ### Me too! One new author I can recommend is Yoon Ha Lee, with his Machineries of Empire trilogy. Less cerebral than Egan but very stylish. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 07:58:27 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 03:58:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] who is in favor of pardoning Snowden? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: > > > > > > On Fri, Aug 21, 2020, 8:20 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >> Who is in favor of pardoning Snowden? > > ### Me too. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 08:15:49 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 04:15:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] the law In-Reply-To: <7a842469-27f3-c74c-b55e-931456377bb0@pobox.com> References: <01bb01d67bba$3a81d8d0$af858a70$@rainier66.com> <45A8FE42-E9B4-4E46-8759-1935E267BC29@alumni.virginia.edu> <024901d67bcd$928a7d30$b79f7790$@rainier66.com> <7a842469-27f3-c74c-b55e-931456377bb0@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Aug 26, 2020 at 4:55 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > People often say, "If there were no laws, what would restrain me from > murdering on whim?" Perhaps others' freedom to kill you in turn. ### Ah, I get to recommend "The Goodness Paradox" for the second time in a day! Great book and if you read it, tell me what you think of the chimp's "ball game". Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 08:48:49 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 10:48:49 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Diaspora In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Loved Diaspora and all Egan?s fiction until Zendegi (included). More recent Egan?s fiction, not so much. On 2020. Aug 23., Sun at 23:21, Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > How about a new subject? > > > > ?Diaspora? by Greg Egan is among my favorite fictions. The setting is > > several centuries after most humans uploaded to supercomputers buried in > > permafrost. (It is hinted between the lines that this Introdus was > > driven by, and the cure of, an eco-collapse.) > > > > When I'm waiting for sleep, I often think about designing the virtual > > environment. Each citizen has a private "scape" and there are also > > public "scapes". I imagine my home as a terraformed asteroid (where the > > laws of physics are fudged as necessary!), with a door to a public > > promenade loosely modelled on some old city. An irregular asteroid > > ought to have some nifty microclimates. I'd also have several > > experimental mini-scapes with exotic geometry. > > > > Some public scapes are realistic, some cartoony, some look like > > Impressionist paintings. In one it's customary to wear a superhero > > costume of your own design; some are explicitly heraldic (and I > > sometimes hesitate about how to translate from a shield or flag, a flat > > surface with an edge, to a skin with no edges). > > > > It's mentioned a few times that minds can be copied and merged, but the > > story doesn't make much use of merging (apart from one poignant scene). > > Unless it's very costly, wouldn't you want a spare self to answer the > > doorbell while you work? (Your memories merge when you sleep, let's > > say.) Also: sex; "go fuck yourself" might be very good advice. > > > > I recently thought of another application. To learn another language as > > a native, you spin off a version of yourself with the language lobes > > reset to infancy, and that one goes to live in another community; you > > regularly absorb "its" memories, but "it" remains separate and does not > > import from "you" until you decide you have learned enough. > > > > -- > > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 08:54:56 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 04:54:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 4 In-Reply-To: <002e01d681f8$243abcb0$6cb03610$@rainier66.com> References: <20200902211627.Horde.-_Mnoa_dm0g2Q5gVDFyQHai@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <002e01d681f8$243abcb0$6cb03610$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 9:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > The most plausible explanation I see so far is the sunlight and fresh > outdoor air somehow helps protect proles. > > ### While the Chinese virus can be detected on some surfaces for many hours if not days, its survival drops to minutes if exposed to sunlight. This is why it is quite difficult to get infected outdoors, unless you are in a dense crowd of people, especially screaming or chanting people. The bikers were probably sufficiently sparsely distributed, with all those hogs getting in between them, that the virus mostly died while floating in the air on the way to the next guy. OTOH, a dense crowd indoors, especially singing or speaking loudly to outshout the music (think choir practice and nightclub, or baptists and bootleggers) is a death trap. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 09:03:21 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 17:03:21 +0800 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body Message-ID: "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be on top of my list. I was so wrong. Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell University spearheaded a collaboration that tackled one of the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move in a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky body equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots that relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. Like BigDog , they have mechanical legs that are controlled with silicon-based electronic components. This means that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse using decades of nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently make computer chips . Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations that respond to more complex commands. ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their microrobots,? wrote Drs. Allan Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be incorporated into robots so small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" [image: nano robo.jpg] I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric Drexler... https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 09:12:37 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 05:12:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 2, 2020 at 11:14 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > So why did the virus not spread like wildfire in California at that rally? > > > > Possibility: masks don?t really help as much as we think, but? perhaps? > direct sunlight on skin does. > ### It's complicated. Masks do help - but only in some circumstances. Prolonged exposure indoors with relatively high population densities, direct prolonged contact with Covid patients (e.g. performing an admission or consultation on a coughing patient in the ED), aerosol-producing procedures, yes, in all these situations masks help, possibly by reducing the size of the inoculum, as Dave Sill wrote. But outdoors, or while shopping at low density in the typical grocery store, or in the vast majority of situations where the Karens hiss at you they don't make any difference. It's complicated - sunlight shining on your skin kills viruses, and it also dries and sterilizes aerosols in the air you breathe, so you are much less likely to get infected outside. This is a direct effect. There is also the indirect effect achieved by increasing vitamin D levels - but it doesn't play much of a role in protecting the bikers, since a couple of days riding hogs while wearing leathers doesn't increase your vitamin D levels that much. I am taking 5000 units of D per day, which given my nocturnal habit and ghostly pale aspect is just enough to keep the level around 60. > > The scary part: if getting out in the sun helps protect from covid, nearly > everything we have done to combat covid was wrong. Not just wrong, it was > pi radians wrong. > > > ### Yes, the lockdowns are barking mad insane. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 09:19:54 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 05:19:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] dead bikers In-Reply-To: References: <026901d6818b$5c3d5950$14b80bf0$@rainier66.com> <002201d68197$f2919400$d7b4bc00$@rainier66.com> <004d01d681a0$28d3fbe0$7a7bf3a0$@rainier66.com> <007101d681a7$768b23c0$63a16b40$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 11:19 AM BillK via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > The favourite suggestion seems to be that the crowded conditions mean > that previously everyone has had many colds and flu coronavirus > infections and this has given them a level of protection against > Covid-19. ### The Japanese in Tokyo, riding in an insanely crowded metro, didn't get much Covid, so yeah, crowding FTW! Americans in NY, riding in an insanely crowded metro, got a crazy amount of Covid, so crowding ... not FTW? All these order-of-magnitude differences between countries you see on: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&year=latest&time=2019-12-31..2020-09-08&country=Africa~Europe~NorthAmerica~Oceania~SouthAmerica~OWID_WRL~Asia~USA~SWE®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc are puzzling. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 09:28:16 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 05:28:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sat killers In-Reply-To: References: <022101d6825e$6fd11b40$4f7351c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 1:43 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Sep 3, 2020 at 6:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Much to my surprise, the University of California system went ahead and >> disallowed the use of the SAT and ACT as criteria for admissions. They >> haven?t really said what if anything will be used to decide who is admitted >> to the UC system now. >> >> >> >> Any ideas? The number of clubs one belongs to? >> > > Whether or not this was the intention, the criteria that will be used - > because they are the only criteria that remain - are the very subjective > criteria that standardized testing was meant to eliminate. > > Unstated (or, rarely, stated) racial and gender biases. Backchannel > favors and bribes. And other things that don't actually correlate to > academic ability. > ### Well, yes, that's the point of removing SAT from admissions. Objective testing reduces the administration's power to indulge their ideological biases and to get bribes. Now they can keep Asians away so much easier. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 10:06:16 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 06:06:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Futurism of Elon Musk In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6845b$86b88ba0$9429a2e0$@rainier66.com> <00a701d68461$c4461630$4cd24290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 6, 2020 at 4:32 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Anyways, I'm all for what Musk is trying to do outside of his hucksterism > in general and around self driving cars in particular with his > overpromising on existing technology that could easily get someone killed. > I'm a fan of his overall, but he's got a bit too much of P.T. Barnum about > him than I would like. > ## I am a huge fan of Mr Musk and almost everything he does, especially Neuralink - I do hope to live long enough to be uploaded through BMI (brain machine interface) rather than have to be frozen and then eventually scanned to upload. But that Tesla business - This is a very neat technological answer to a very stupid question. How do I make myself look saintly *and* rich at the same time? - Buy an expensive and luxurious car that according to common hype is the key to saving the planet. So instead of building a better Volt, with a ten times smaller battery that's enough for 90% of drives, and with a small gas engine for those infrequent long drives, Tesla makes cars with 1200 lb batteries that hardly ever get fully used. But I am still a Musk fan. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 10:16:22 2020 From: rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com (Rafal Smigrodzki) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 06:16:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again In-Reply-To: <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <035501d682cd$a166be20$e4343a60$@rainier66.com> <038001d682d6$db465480$91d2fd80$@rainier66.com> <040601d682ea$b386c380$1a944a80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 4, 2020 at 2:40 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > What if?the low-initial viral load exposure theory is right. The notion > (if I understand it) is that if a person has never been exposed to a virus > at all, but suddenly is exposed to a lot of it, such as if someone sneezes > at the grocery store and the hapless prole walks thru the particulate > cloud, that would be a huge initial exposure, lotta virus right where it > thrives best (nose and lungs) body?s defenses are overwhelmed before it > knows what hit it. We get that part. Killed a lotta proles back last > spring. > ### No, no, one sneeze is not enough. Fifteen minutes in close proximity to an infected person indoors is the kind of situation where you are liable to get a high dose. This is why so many symptomatic cases happened while families were "sheltering in place", i.e. being locked up at home with a sick family member. Rafal -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 12:08:10 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 08:08:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial Message-ID: The AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine has just been halted because one individual got a severe spinal infection that may have been caused by the vaccine. AstraZeneca used a weakened but living chimpanzee virus similar to the common cold as a vector to get DNA into cells and make them produce COVID-19 antigens, the Russian vaccine also uses this method but other vaccine candidates do not use a live virus. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 12:24:43 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 08:24:43 -0400 Subject: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: mRNA vaccines look promising because they avoid these issues and can be ramped up and manufactured in volume. They are also of course new tech with no long history of vaccine trials beyond Covid. However, both require heavy cooling to remain viable. Moderna's needs -4C. Pfizer's needs a very impractical -60C although they've designed custom dry ice carriers for shipment. Any research lab will have a freezer that cold, but I doubt there are many in clinical settings. Logistics may be a challenge. On Wed, Sep 9, 2020, 8:18 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine has just been halted > because one individual got a severe spinal infection that may have been > caused by the vaccine. AstraZeneca used a weakened but living chimpanzee > virus similar to the common cold as a vector to get DNA into cells and make > them produce COVID-19 antigens, the Russian vaccine also uses this method > but other vaccine candidates do not use a live virus. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 12:53:13 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 08:53:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> <74EC2F88-8195-4B93-8D2D-9591BC7BE90B@gmail.com> <012701d6855f$216b3630$6441a290$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 7, 2020 at 5:40 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *From my understanding of it, the way big mergers happen is when two > stars destined to merge originally formed, they had to be in pairs where > they were gravitationally bound, but also had a close approach point. This > bled off an enormous amount of angular momentum at each mutual perihelion, > eventually causing a the two to merge, forming Mister 85. But if we > initially had three, I don?t understand how the merger could have set up > conditions likely to get a subsequent merger of Mister 66. I am struggling > to imagine two pairs each pair tightly bound to start with, and each of the > pairs in a highly-elliptical orbit that close-approaches the other pair, > with all four of the original stars being monsters. Oh that staggers the > imagination.* > I'm struggling to understand how that could be too. Another problem is that all this seems to have happened less than 1 billion years after the Big Bang and it takes a great deal of time for two orbiting black holes to bleed off enough angular momentum in the form of gravity waves for them to merge, and there just doesn't seem to be enough time for that. But I guess we shouldn't be surprised that we don't understand how so much matter could be concentrated in such a small space so fast when we don't have the slightest idea of what dark matter is and it's about five times as common as regular matter. > > *> Note: LIGO just turned on the past 5 yrs. We have gotten alllll > thiiiiis in just the last 5 years, good new science out the old wazoo.* > Five years ago I would have said LIGO has been in operation for years and has found nothing and was turning into a boondoggle, boy was I wrong! They had a major upgrade that increased sensitivity and opened a new window into the universe and we saw all these wonders. It's just great! John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 13:50:35 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 09:50:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] sat killers In-Reply-To: References: <022101d6825e$6fd11b40$4f7351c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 5:29 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > ### Well, yes, that's the point of removing SAT from admissions. Objective > testing reduces the administration's power to indulge their ideological > biases and to get bribes. Now they can keep Asians away so much easier. > > I believe we're close to a tipping point in the US with this current madness. I'm not entirely optimistic for how this plays out longer term to put it mildly. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 14:06:50 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 10:06:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: I don't completely disagree, but you're retarded if you think Trump and his cronies aren't being used as part of the same attack on liberties. Trump is a pawn and part of the problem. If you don't acknowledge this you are just as brainwashed as anyone. If Trump wasn't part of the problem, he would be dead, or at very least, never allowed to be elected in the first place. On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:29 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 7:01 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> Anyway don't be retarded. Antifa is not a bigger problem than the >> alt-right. Both are buzzwords for small but vocal groups of extremists. >> The real problem is neither of them, rather, it is how goddamn dumb most >> individuals and most governments are. Whether we have anarchy or >> totalitarianism is no matter. The issue is ignorance and stupidity and it >> will be an issue no matter what until we fix it, form of governance be >> damned. >> > > ### Our enemies, the operatives, allies and puppets of the hegemonic > state, are using BLM and Antifa as the tip of the spear in an attack on the > democratic forces that are still present in some parts of the government. > So I agree with you - Antifa is not a problem, since Homeland security > knows all their names and could fold the whole bunch in a week - but it is > a symptom of pervasive corruption within the government. > > Rafal > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 15:29:10 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 08:29:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that is, thousands of nanometers - across. On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:06 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both > microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be > on top of my list. > > I was so wrong. > > Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell > University spearheaded a collaboration > that tackled one of > the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move in > a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped > microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a > robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. > > Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky body > equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be > independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so > accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a > battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? > > If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots that > relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. Like > BigDog , they have mechanical legs > that are controlled with silicon-based electronic components. This means > that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse using decades of > nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently make computer > chips > > . > > Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical > electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated > with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations > that respond to more complex commands. > > ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their microrobots,? > wrote Drs. Allan > Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. > ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents > that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic > components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens > the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be > incorporated into robots so > small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" > > [image: nano robo.jpg] > I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric > Drexler... > > > https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 16:20:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 09:20:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] covid again In-Reply-To: References: <014701d674e4$3e2584a0$ba708de0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <019601d686c5$190d0010$4b270030$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] covid again On Mon, Aug 17, 2020 at 6:19 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: This causes me to speculate: perhaps the most susceptible people caught it, right up front, and the most likely to perish perished soon afterwards. ### Covid burned through a lot of nursing homes right from the start, so there you have the high initial CFR, now it's the general public catching up but not getting killed, so there you have the present much lower CFR. We are running out of Covid-susceptible nursing home patients, since so many are already dead or recovered. Rafal Hi Rafal, Cool, good to see you back, an actual doctor. I figure you aughta know, you are on the front lines of the battle, firsthand view of everything. I have a matter to attend today of greater matterfulness (more mattery? (higher matteriety? (a situation emitting matterinos?))) than chattering with me lads and lasses on ExI, but will be back and will read everything before I post anything. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 16:31:09 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 12:31:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:17 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this. > > spike > Reason punches holes in this mess of a paper: https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/ Additionally, even in places like Minnesota where there was a spike in cases in that time frame (that MIGHT have been a result in part from this rally), hospitalizations remained extremely low. The entire paper is propaganda, but it was easiest for me to start with the red flags around economic cost as they were the easiest to see. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 16:36:18 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 11:36:18 -0500 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: Will Steinberg wrote: > I don't completely disagree, but you're retarded if you think Trump and > his cronies aren't being used as part of the same attack on liberties. > Trump is a pawn and part of the problem. If you don't acknowledge this you > are just as brainwashed as anyone. If Trump wasn't part of the problem, he > would be dead, or at very least, never allowed to be elected in the first > place. > I don't get it at all. First, saying that Trump is a pawn totally conflicts with what I think of his personality. I would not outright deny it because I just don't know. But it doesn't fit at all. Of whom is he a pawn? Evidence please. Who would kill him and for what? And your last sentence makes no sense at all to me. bill w > > On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:29 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 7:01 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> Anyway don't be retarded. Antifa is not a bigger problem than the >>> alt-right. Both are buzzwords for small but vocal groups of extremists. >>> The real problem is neither of them, rather, it is how goddamn dumb most >>> individuals and most governments are. Whether we have anarchy or >>> totalitarianism is no matter. The issue is ignorance and stupidity and it >>> will be an issue no matter what until we fix it, form of governance be >>> damned. >>> >> >> ### Our enemies, the operatives, allies and puppets of the hegemonic >> state, are using BLM and Antifa as the tip of the spear in an attack on the >> democratic forces that are still present in some parts of the government. >> So I agree with you - Antifa is not a problem, since Homeland security >> knows all their names and could fold the whole bunch in a week - but it is >> a symptom of pervasive corruption within the government. >> >> Rafal >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 17:05:46 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 10:05:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <01e101d686cb$76aab3b0$64001b10$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial >?However, both require heavy cooling to remain viable. Moderna's needs -4C. Pfizer's needs a very impractical -60C although they've designed custom dry ice carriers for shipment. Any research lab will have a freezer that cold, but I doubt there are many in clinical settings. Logistics may be a challenge? Hi Dylan, do come now, me lad. Liquid nitrogen is cheaper than beer. Liquid air is even cheaper and isn?t even hazardous aboard aircraft. If this works, we can do it. >?The AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial of its COVID-19 vaccine has just been halted? the Russian vaccine also uses this method but other vaccine candidates do not use a live virus. John K Clark The commies aren?t stupid, only commie. Two different things, with some similarities. Adios for now, gotta scoot. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 17:12:15 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 13:12:15 -0400 Subject: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial In-Reply-To: <01e101d686cb$76aab3b0$64001b10$@rainier66.com> References: <01e101d686cb$76aab3b0$64001b10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 1:06 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > Hi Dylan, do come now, me lad. Liquid nitrogen is cheaper than beer. > Liquid air is even cheaper and isn?t even hazardous aboard aircraft. > > > > If this works, we can do it. > > > True, I used to do lab benchwork many, many moons ago, and when discussing the Pfizer requirement on another list suggested it shouldn't be a problem to use dewars of liquid nitrogen (similar to those used to store frozen cell cultures) for transport and on site storage, but then found out Pfizer is going to ship in their own boxes, so I guess physicians may need to invest in some dewars. I'm just wondering how easy it is to obtain liquid nitrogen outside of the 1st world. I'm not worried about the US or Europe being able to pull off the logistics involved, but I am in poorer, rural regions of the 3rd world. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 18:24:12 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 14:24:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Some promising demographic data. Apparently Sturgis skews young: (Trigger warning: Scantily clad young biker gals from the latest rally follow): https://www.baggersmag.com/girls-sturgis-day-1?image=8#page-5 On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 12:31 PM Dylan Distasio wrote: > > > On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:17 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this. >> >> spike >> > > Reason punches holes in this mess of a paper: > > https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/ > > Additionally, even in places like Minnesota where there was a spike in > cases in that time frame (that MIGHT have been a result in part from this > rally), hospitalizations remained extremely low. The entire paper is > propaganda, but it was easiest for me to start with the red flags around > economic cost as they were the easiest to see. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 18:25:21 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 14:25:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Sorry, I meant to also disclose that the actual link is from 2015. This post was intended somewhat tongue in cheek. On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:24 PM Dylan Distasio wrote: > Some promising demographic data. Apparently Sturgis skews young: > > (Trigger warning: Scantily clad young biker gals from the latest rally > follow): > https://www.baggersmag.com/girls-sturgis-day-1?image=8#page-5 > > On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 12:31 PM Dylan Distasio > wrote: > >> >> >> On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 11:17 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> We need epidemiologists, not economists looking at this. >>> >>> spike >>> >> >> Reason punches holes in this mess of a paper: >> >> https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases/ >> >> Additionally, even in places like Minnesota where there was a spike in >> cases in that time frame (that MIGHT have been a result in part from this >> rally), hospitalizations remained extremely low. The entire paper is >> propaganda, but it was easiest for me to start with the red flags around >> economic cost as they were the easiest to see. >> > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 19:58:16 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 15:58:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] AstraZeneca's Phase 3 trial In-Reply-To: <01e101d686cb$76aab3b0$64001b10$@rainier66.com> References: <01e101d686cb$76aab3b0$64001b10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 1:08 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> Liquid nitrogen is cheaper than beer. Liquid air is even cheaper and > isn?t even hazardous aboard aircraft.* Right, and even if they require more refrigeration individual doses of recombinant messenger RNA Vaccines would be much cheaper to make than a live Vaccine would, and it would be much easier to ramp up to the billions of doses needed. >> the Russian vaccine also uses this method but other vaccine candidates >> do not use a live virus. John K Clark > > > *The commies aren?t stupid, only commie.* Don't be a square daddy-o, get with the times. The Russians haven't been comies for over 30 years, for a short time they flirted with democracy but as usually happens with democracies they soon fell back into totalatarinasm, but it is now closer to fashism than comunism; however neither is exactly the bees knees. Stay healthy everyone John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 20:32:56 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 13:32:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns Message-ID: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> >>>? the Russian vaccine also uses this method but other vaccine candidates do not use a live virus. John K Clark >> The commies aren?t stupid, only commie. >?Don't be a square daddy-o, get with the times. The Russians haven't been comies for over 30 years? Ja, well I never trust a commie. I tells ya, it?s a TRICK! They get us comfortable, thinking they are a big friendly Canada over there, then WHAM, the KGB is running the place. John what happened to you man? Did you find your bottle of nice pills? Treating people with respect, posting dignified comments. Whaz up widdat? Oh jeez, don?t tell us: you found god. I do admit that 66/85 merger has me thinking some supernatural software geek is messing with both our heads, finding the two hardest-core atheists and sending us a subtle message: you guys don?t know nuthin. Think ya have it all figured out with your ?inflation? models, well whaddya gonna do with THIS data? Atheist, hmm? Heh, I?LL show ya atheist. Then she sends us that astonishing LIGO result. My preliminary conclusion: that just can?t happen. I am still in the denial phase, only it?s a refusal to accept something really wicked cool rather than something bad. Check this image: https://twitter.com/i/status/1303679122967728129 This is Oregon, but the smoke is coming down here. I took this sun photo at about 10am, but it has gotten much darker. Now just as the sun reaches zenith, the street lights are coming on. Repent, ye sinners and FORTRAN coders! It?s the apocalypse! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 6644 bytes Desc: not available URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 21:16:11 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 22:16:11 +0100 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, 9 Sep 2020 at 21:35, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > Check this image: > https://twitter.com/i/status/1303679122967728129 > > This is Oregon, but the smoke is coming down here. I took this sun photo at about 10am, but it has gotten much darker. Now just as the sun reaches zenith, the street lights are coming on. Repent, ye sinners and FORTRAN coders! It?s the apocalypse! > > spike > _______________________________________________ My climate feeds are full of photos and news about the fires all down the west coast. Whole towns have been evacuated and destroyed by the fires. Seems to be the worst fire season ever. BillK From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 22:02:29 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 15:02:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d0 1c0$@rainier66.com> <00f901d68657$9d797db0$d86c7910$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00d601d686f4$e96bd9f0$bc438dd0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox >?Sorry, I meant to also disclose that the actual link is from 2015. This post was intended somewhat tongue in cheek? Eh, nothing has changed Dylan. The local college girls still make their tuition payment by putting on their costumes and dancing for dollar bills that the bikers stuff in their?emm? costume components. Hey, it?s tradition. That train-wreck of an article assumed the surges in covid cases everywhere the phone pings could be traced were somehow the fault of the rally, while ignoring some other events that might have coincided with the rally, such as? oh I don?t know? SCHOOLS OPENING? Note that the nearby Black Hills State U had twice the new case rate as the rally. I can?t attribute that to a number of shapely young scholars donning their costumes and by merely walking around at the rally, never even doing anything their mothers wouldn?t do (and didn?t do when they were that age) they could make more money from currency donations in a day than they could in a week at the local fast-food office building. That article you posted sent me off on an EP tangent. Note the artwork, all the fun details: Everybody having fun, drag race starting with the two alpha males, the alpha-loving biker bitches hanging on (hey, their term not mine (but they really do crap like that (team drag race where a passenger is required.))) What else? Guy in the background with a shapely pair of legs slung over his shoulder, lotsa skin showing, plenty of potential competitors for the wet T-shirt contest. Sturgis ain?t the kind of place to find delicate sensitivity or political correctness. It might as well be an international Hooters restaurant reunion: tacky, yet unrefined. But hey, what plays in Sturgis stays in Sturgis. The tangent: I have a friend from college, hetero to the core of his being, but he had a self-admitted quirk: he couldn?t tolerate the slightest flaw in a woman. She had to be chiseled out of stone perfect or he just couldn?t get past the flaw, which could be as minor as a few extra pounds, thick ankles or ears that were too big. He said he could overlook other flaws, such as if she had the brains of a fire plug, but could only get turned on if she was a perfect physical specimen. I pointed out the obvious: we humans stay in that condition for about 5 years tops. Many of us pass thru it and are there for 20 minutes. Most never achieve it. He recognized the problem and admitted if he ever married it likely wouldn?t last. He was and it didn?t. So let?s look at the biker chicks. There are otherwise sane women who find they can only be attracted to these leader-of-the-pack alpha dudes. They might have no other socially-redeeming qualities, might be convicted felons, but these women seek them out and cling to them like barnacles. I don?t understand that. Does EP have any insight for us Keith? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 84338 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 22:22:48 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 15:22:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 1:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I took this sun photo at about 10am, but it has gotten much darker. Now > just as the sun reaches zenith, the street lights are coming on. > I see skies of yellow, Small flecks of white. Dim orange sun, A noon that's like night. And I think to myself, What a flammable world. I see trees ablaze, Whole forests gone, On every horizon, Nowhere to run. And I think to myself, What a flammable world. I hear babies cry, Where it's too hot to go, The pains of life, They'll barely know. And I think to myself, What a flammable world. Yes, I think to myself, What a flammable world. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 22:38:02 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 16:38:02 -0600 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: You know, once you get outside of California, it no longer actually feels like the earth is desperately trying to purge itself of the metaphorical cancer that is humanity. The whole planet isn't like this. It's really just California, and parts of Oregon. And large US cities with a certain style of leadership. But other than that, things are really quite nice, for the vast majority of people, the vast majority of the time. It's too easy to forget this. On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 4:24 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 1:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I took this sun photo at about 10am, but it has gotten much darker. Now >> just as the sun reaches zenith, the street lights are coming on. >> > > I see skies of yellow, > Small flecks of white. > Dim orange sun, > A noon that's like night. > And I think to myself, > What a flammable world. > > I see trees ablaze, > Whole forests gone, > On every horizon, > Nowhere to run. > And I think to myself, > What a flammable world. > > I hear babies cry, > Where it's too hot to go, > The pains of life, > They'll barely know. > And I think to myself, > What a flammable world. > > Yes, I think to myself, > What a flammable world. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 22:42:58 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 15:42:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00ee01d686fa$913f5080$b3bdf180$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat >>...Repent, ye sinners and FORTRAN coders! It?s the apocalypse! spike > _______________________________________________ >...My climate feeds are full of photos and news about the fires all down the west coast. Whole towns have been evacuated and destroyed by the fires. Seems to be the worst fire season ever. BillK _______________________________________________ BillK, every time we fight a forest fire by any means, including stopping the destruction at a firebreak such as a road, we are in a sense kicking the can down the road. With every home and business saved, we are accumulating fuel that otherwise would have been consumed. By that theory, everything we are doing is trending in the long run toward worse and worse fire seasons. Dousing forest fires seems right, but eventually it will burn anyway. Preserving nature requires working with nature. spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 22:51:04 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 17:51:04 -0500 Subject: [ExI] The Irish Message-ID: They take it seriously. As reported in the Irish Times (and the Week), many dignitaries gathered for a 50 year anniversary of the legislature's golf society - no masks, no social distancing. They had passed very strict laws about those things such that Irish families have had to miss their relatives' funerals. Result: several senators forced to resign; a cabinet minister; a European commissioner whose apology was deemed insufficient. Let's hear it for getting serious! bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 9 23:08:36 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 16:08:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <012501d686fe$25e26ee0$71a74ca0$@rainier66.com> >?I see skies of yellow, Small flecks of white. Dim orange sun, A noon that's like night. And I think to myself, What a flammable world. I know Adrian had to write this just today because we had an ash fall last night, in the form of white specks all over everything. > On Behalf Of Darin Sunley via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] as the world burns >?You know, once you get outside of California, it no longer actually feels like the earth is desperately trying to purge itself of the metaphorical cancer that is humanity?It's too easy to forget this? Darin Thanks for that Darin. It has been other-worldly all day: everything is orange. I noticed something crazy: they are letting planes go out in tightly packed groups out of San Jose. I see about 8 in a row, then nothing for half an hour, then about 8 more and so on. They must circle to pattern altitude of about 6kft, then proceed south. I noticed something interesting: the planes are still easily visible with no obscuration at that altitude. Conclusion: most of the particulate smoke is way up there. The planes level out scoot along underneath it, pick up speed, then pull up and power thru it to minimize the time they are outside of visual flight rules. Still the particulates are falling like rain. I have been whoofing on the old Albuterol and beclomethasone most of the day, stuff I had left over from my very expensive January misadventure. I hafta stop that; it is getting me stoned from overdose, mercy. Regarding my earlier comments on some supernatural sim-writer: if this is all a sim and someone could control it, you know she would do this kind of stuff. Reasoning: humor is a human thing and human intelligence is a human thing. Humor and intelligence are linked. So? a superhuman intelligence would go with a superhuman sense of humor. If so? you know she would do stuff like send a signal to LIGO and VIRGO that would make physicists say in unison all over the planet: whaaaaaaat in the heeeeelllllll??? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 23:21:04 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 19:21:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Last Friday, I mentioned this conversation to someone I work with. He followed up with this link today: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-08/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-may-have-caused-over-250-000-coronavirus-cases-report I replied to him as follow: I don't really know how to properly model the numbers being thrown around. I think that's the interesting conversation. How 400,000 people can lead to 250,000 cases would suggest >60% infection rate. That there is only one death attributed to either 250k cases or 400k attendees makes coronavirus ? not worth the hype. Cell phone tracking as an authoritative source of truth - based on what other reliability studies can that be trusted? Yeah, ok, so I'm reaching? but it feels like all of it is reaching. If Sturgis event is 8/7 - 8/16 but cases are reported from 8/2 to 9/2 ? there's considerable "slop" in what is being counted. A 7-12% increase in cases for counties with rally attendees compared to without, but then reporting Meade county as 6 to 7 per 1000 is a rate of not 6 or 7 percent, but 0.6 or 0.7 percent. So that mixture in unit of measure is either numerical incompetence (the default assumption with benefit of the doubt) or it's intentionally obfuscating facts to push a narrative. Throw in that "It also found that the rally generated $12.2 billion in public health costs" (the one doing the finding is not obvious, the rally itself is vilified with an unambiguous direct-action verb "generated". The last bit of that sentence admits those numbers are based on "statistical cost of a COVID-19 case" (but the superfluous clauses of a sentence are typically ignored or not remembered) Again you could call me on reading too much into the careful construction(s) here, but the next sentence then proposes that amount would have been enough "to pay each rally goer $26,000 to not attend" - that's a point that completely displaces the critical thinking needed to process the previous sentence with a sensational thought about getting paid? meanwhile we can't seem to agree that giving the stay-at-home more than $1200 every few months. So we "lost" $26k/person for 400k Sturgis attendees, but we can't afford the bribe to stay home (UBI triggers people over the socialist support it provides, but if you call it a bribe or allowance with the requirement to stay home? then it's not exactly "unconditional" income? but it serves the same purpose of a social safety measure) The last paragraph even states "? is an overestimate of the externality cost ? we nonetheless conclude ? this event was substantial" - without comparisons to health cases of past Sturgis events or similar conditions/size events, it's so easy to "conclude" whatever-the-hell-you-want. The disclosure sentences are obscured with bamboozling and gobbledegook, while the narrative-supporting takeaways use simple words and shorter sentences. Maybe the author wasn't a genius wordsmith constructing a devastatingly convincing article. Maybe it's human nature to tell a tale in a way that carries a meme from brain to brain. Maybe writers have spent their whole careers serving the spread of memes. The best writers are self-aware and can see their bias/memeplex, and still write a fair article. The rest simply toss enough words together to meet the deadline for article submission. So in the flurry of content-creation, the default narrative is strengthened by all those who repeat the same signal. To come all the way back around to my initial point: I don't know how to think about it. The friend I quoted skipped Sturgis and observed that it was a non-political rally, so would have a very different population than the now-common political rabble-rousing. His observance was that Sturgis should have had many more _deaths_ associated to it, but that there might be something about the nature of that event that mitigated deaths in a significant way. Later email exchanges seems to have landed on the Sturgis attendees spend more time in the sun while on long rides (like those necessary to get 400k bikers to Sturgis) and the endogenous buildup of vitamin D3 has prophylactic effects. Perhaps having lower overall stress selects for those with lower inflammation and therefore less existing vascular damage (I suspect those bikers could be considered privileged to have bikes as hobby/toys and can afford their relaxation in ways that ? less-privileged and more at-risk populations cannot) There might even be some value in a boomer population with the diet of convenience store hotdogs and afternoon coffee ? whether it's direct, or because they're already on medications that control blood pressure, cholesterol, anti-coags, etc. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 8:51 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which > drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than > 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute > of Labor Economics. The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion > in health-care costs, they wrote. > > > https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08 > > Keith > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 9 23:39:34 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 16:39:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] as the world burns In-Reply-To: <012501d686fe$25e26ee0$71a74ca0$@rainier66.com> References: <007801d686e8$66cffe10$346ffa30$@rainier66.com> <012501d686fe$25e26ee0$71a74ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 4:10 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >?I see skies of yellow, > Small flecks of white. > Dim orange sun, > A noon that's like night. > And I think to myself, > What a flammable world. > > > > I know Adrian had to write this just today because we had an ash fall last > night, in the form of white specks all over everything. > Actually I wrote it yesterday, as a poetic exaggeration. I did not know it would be prophetic about today. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 00:46:40 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 17:46:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443 AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> Mike this is really good stuff. At some point we need to have this writer crowd address the comparison between the half million rally attendees vs any half million randomly-selected Americans, then ask how we shall distribute the enormous savings. Shall we give the attendees checks for 26k? If your colleague suggests ?we? pay people to not come to the rally, I didn?t come to the rally this year. If he is eager to pay me my 26k, I am eager to post him my address. At some point the epidemiologists must explain a stunning observation: the bikers keep not dying. At some point their covid death rate should return to the ?normal? 1.3 a day, once they are again susceptible to catching it at home and sufficient time has passed that the disease has had time to progress to its lethal conclusion since the end of the rally. This of course would still not be the fault of the rally. Epidemiologists have a lotta splainin to do. I don?t hear a lotta splainin from that particular community, which is why the economist and politician communities are stepping up and offering their own splainin. Being not professionals in that science, the economists and politician community doesn?t worry much if their splainin is absurd and misleading, so long as it serves their ends. The beauty of this data set is that it is the first one I know of that has zero politics in it: there is not one thing any politician could have done to stop it, not one damn thing. Two Native tribes made a half-hearted attempt, but soon realized just setting up a bikers-go-home sign wouldn?t do it: home for a lot of bikers was on the other side of that reservation and they had not enough fuel in their small tanks or water in their canteens to backtrack across the desert to the previous oasis. They couldn?t really road-block: the trucks carrying the tribes? groceries and the tribes? fuel was aboard those trucks in line behind a few thousand bikers. So? on they came. No one could stop them, even in theory. It is said that laughter is the best medicine. This is poetry of course, but sad people often have depressed immunity, so it stands to reason that in happy people it should work the other way to some extent. It is nearly impossible to attend a motorcycle rally with a straight face. I don?t think it can be done: you see hilarious absurdity everywhere you look. A blind man would bust out laughing at the sound of the silliness of a biker rally. Perhaps hilarity somehow temporarily pumped their immune systems? I have been to Star Trek conventions, the rallies are even sillier than those (which is saying a lot.) I suffer aching sides from laughing at the goofiness. If you haven?t seen one, I recommend it: those are really good attitude adjusters. You can go and see even if you don?t have a bike or a costume. If I see you there, I won?t tell what you did. spike From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat Sent: Wednesday, September 9, 2020 4:21 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: Mike Dougherty Subject: Re: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox Last Friday, I mentioned this conversation to someone I work with. He followed up with this link today: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-09-08/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-may-have-caused-over-250-000-coronavirus-cases-report I replied to him as follow: I don't really know how to properly model the numbers being thrown around. I think that's the interesting conversation. How 400,000 people can lead to 250,000 cases would suggest >60% infection rate. That there is only one death attributed to either 250k cases or 400k attendees makes coronavirus ? not worth the hype. Cell phone tracking as an authoritative source of truth - based on what other reliability studies can that be trusted? Yeah, ok, so I'm reaching? but it feels like all of it is reaching. If Sturgis event is 8/7 - 8/16 but cases are reported from 8/2 to 9/2 ? there's considerable "slop" in what is being counted. A 7-12% increase in cases for counties with rally attendees compared to without, but then reporting Meade county as 6 to 7 per 1000 is a rate of not 6 or 7 percent, but 0.6 or 0.7 percent. So that mixture in unit of measure is either numerical incompetence (the default assumption with benefit of the doubt) or it's intentionally obfuscating facts to push a narrative. Throw in that "It also found that the rally generated $12.2 billion in public health costs" (the one doing the finding is not obvious, the rally itself is vilified with an unambiguous direct-action verb "generated". The last bit of that sentence admits those numbers are based on "statistical cost of a COVID-19 case" (but the superfluous clauses of a sentence are typically ignored or not remembered) Again you could call me on reading too much into the careful construction(s) here, but the next sentence then proposes that amount would have been enough "to pay each rally goer $26,000 to not attend" - that's a point that completely displaces the critical thinking needed to process the previous sentence with a sensational thought about getting paid? meanwhile we can't seem to agree that giving the stay-at-home more than $1200 every few months. So we "lost" $26k/person for 400k Sturgis attendees, but we can't afford the bribe to stay home (UBI triggers people over the socialist support it provides, but if you call it a bribe or allowance with the requirement to stay home? then it's not exactly "unconditional" income? but it serves the same purpose of a social safety measure) The last paragraph even states "? is an overestimate of the externality cost ? we nonetheless conclude ? this event was substantial" - without comparisons to health cases of past Sturgis events or similar conditions/size events, it's so easy to "conclude" whatever-the-hell-you-want. The disclosure sentences are obscured with bamboozling and gobbledegook, while the narrative-supporting takeaways use simple words and shorter sentences. Maybe the author wasn't a genius wordsmith constructing a devastatingly convincing article. Maybe it's human nature to tell a tale in a way that carries a meme from brain to brain. Maybe writers have spent their whole careers serving the spread of memes. The best writers are self-aware and can see their bias/memeplex, and still write a fair article. The rest simply toss enough words together to meet the deadline for article submission. So in the flurry of content-creation, the default narrative is strengthened by all those who repeat the same signal. To come all the way back around to my initial point: I don't know how to think about it. The friend I quoted skipped Sturgis and observed that it was a non-political rally, so would have a very different population than the now-common political rabble-rousing. His observance was that Sturgis should have had many more _deaths_ associated to it, but that there might be something about the nature of that event that mitigated deaths in a significant way. Later email exchanges seems to have landed on the Sturgis attendees spend more time in the sun while on long rides (like those necessary to get 400k bikers to Sturgis) and the endogenous buildup of vitamin D3 has prophylactic effects. Perhaps having lower overall stress selects for those with lower inflammation and therefore less existing vascular damage (I suspect those bikers could be considered privileged to have bikes as hobby/toys and can afford their relaxation in ways that ? less-privileged and more at-risk populations cannot) There might even be some value in a boomer population with the diet of convenience store hotdogs and afternoon coffee ? whether it's direct, or because they're already on medications that control blood pressure, cholesterol, anti-coags, etc. On Tue, Sep 8, 2020 at 8:51 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat > wrote: The 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota in August, which drew more than 400,000 people, has now been linked to more than 250,000 coronavirus cases, according to a study by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics. The event will cost an estimated $12.2 billion in health-care costs, they wrote. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-in-south-dakota-in-august-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases-study-finds-2020-09-08 Keith -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 01:22:49 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 21:22:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020, 8:48 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Mike this is really good stuff. > Later, I see this: https://reason.com/2020/09/09/no-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-didnt-spawn-250000-coronavirus-cases So i still don't know what to think about Sturgis, and/but my thoughts are unchanged on the real story being read between the lines of the story being told. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 01:26:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 18:26:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <44CCA344-F493-444A-883B-443 AD58FAE03@gmail.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <017c01d68711$57a8ea90$06fabfb0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com >?At some point the epidemiologists must explain a stunning observation: the bikers keep not dying?Epidemiologists have a lotta splainin to do?spike Please, my sincere apologies for going on about this. In the runup, for weeks, or months really, we heard so much about how this would be a catastrophe and a super-spreader and all that. But it wasn?t, and now it feels like a big shrug: OK that didn?t show what we expected, so? never mind, onto something else. Well wait a minute. We have economists and journalists filling the vacuum, writing panic-porn for the masses claiming that it did show what they predicted, while the people who are qualified to get to the answers on this slink away quietly. Why is it that way down here in Squaresville, L7 non-hipster daddy-o nanoscopic spike seems to be asking: Why do the bikers keep not dying? Why am I writing on and on, annoying my own friends to no end with my obsession, but the professional community are stone cold silent on what looks like a huge obvious signal, one that has enormous significance and stunning implications? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 03:43:59 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 23:43:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: He is an unwilling pawn. Easily manipulated. Perfect for the job of dividing America On Wed, Sep 9, 2020, 12:39 William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Will Steinberg wrote: > >> I don't completely disagree, but you're retarded if you think Trump and >> his cronies aren't being used as part of the same attack on liberties. >> Trump is a pawn and part of the problem. If you don't acknowledge this you >> are just as brainwashed as anyone. If Trump wasn't part of the problem, he >> would be dead, or at very least, never allowed to be elected in the first >> place. >> > > I don't get it at all. First, saying that Trump is a pawn totally > conflicts with what I think of his personality. I would not outright deny > it because I just don't know. But it doesn't fit at all. Of whom is he a > pawn? Evidence please. Who would kill him and for what? And your last > sentence makes no sense at all to me. bill w > >> >> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:29 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> On Thu, Aug 13, 2020 at 7:01 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> Anyway don't be retarded. Antifa is not a bigger problem than the >>>> alt-right. Both are buzzwords for small but vocal groups of extremists. >>>> The real problem is neither of them, rather, it is how goddamn dumb most >>>> individuals and most governments are. Whether we have anarchy or >>>> totalitarianism is no matter. The issue is ignorance and stupidity and it >>>> will be an issue no matter what until we fix it, form of governance be >>>> damned. >>>> >>> >>> ### Our enemies, the operatives, allies and puppets of the hegemonic >>> state, are using BLM and Antifa as the tip of the spear in an attack on the >>> democratic forces that are still present in some parts of the government. >>> So I agree with you - Antifa is not a problem, since Homeland security >>> knows all their names and could fold the whole bunch in a week - but it is >>> a symptom of pervasive corruption within the government. >>> >>> Rafal >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 03:55:22 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 20:55:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> We have a place for all this. spike From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] diamonds falling He is an unwilling pawn. Easily manipulated. Perfect for the job of dividing America On Wed, Sep 9, 2020, 12:39 William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: Will Steinberg wrote: I don't completely disagree, but you're retarded if you think Trump and his cronies aren't being used as part of the same attack on liberties. Trump is a pawn and part of the problem. If you don't acknowledge this you are just as brainwashed as anyone. If Trump wasn't part of the problem, he would be dead, or at very least, never allowed to be elected in the first place. I don't get it at all. First, saying that Trump is a? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 04:34:32 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 21:34:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] conventional winter Message-ID: <001001d6872b$ae5f1a20$0b1d4e60$@rainier66.com> The National Weather Service and the Weather Channel both predicted 31C for today. Their software models air masses and clouds, but cannot predict smoke clouds. We had a huge smoke cloud hang over us all day. The temperature dropped to 19C, the biggest disparity between prediction and actual I have ever seen. We have long known about nuclear winter, but this is not nuclear, just conventional forest fires. Now that I have seen it myself, it is very clear why that whole nuclear winter business is such a big concern. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Thu Sep 10 04:49:20 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2020 21:49:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.com> On 2020-9-09 20:55, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We have a place for all this. I know a place where the music is fine and the lights are always low. I know a place where we can go. Or There is a place where I can go when I feel low, when I feel blue; and it's my mind, and there's no time when I'm alone. Others? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From giulio at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 06:31:37 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:31:37 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Book review: How to Build a Time Machine, by T. E. Willis Message-ID: Book review: How to Build a Time Machine, by T. E. Willis This science fiction book is a page turner that captures the attention of the reader at the beginning and holds it until the end... https://turingchurch.net/book-review-how-to-build-a-time-machine-by-t-e-willis-380c5bce4966 From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 11:01:06 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 07:01:06 -0400 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:30 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Antifa is not a problem I agree. Antifa is not a problem, QAnon is the problem because the most dangerous kind of radical is a radical without one shred of rationality that can not be influenced in any way with logical argument. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 11:55:18 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 07:55:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Could a face mask be a primitive form of vaccine? Message-ID: An editorial in the September 8 2020 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that a face mask greatly reduces but does not limit entirely a person's exposure to COVID-19, and it is well known that very small exposures to some deadly viruses can sometimes not make a person sick but can sometimes confer immunity, so it is not unreasonable to suggest the same thing might be true for COVID-19. The editorial presents some evidence to suggest this could be true, it says among other things: "*Countries **that have adapted population-wide masking have fared better in terms of rates of severe Covid-related illnesses and death, which, in environments with limited testing, suggests a shift from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections.*" And concludes with: *"Ultimately, combating the pandemic will involve driving down both transmission rates and severity of disease. Increasing evidence suggests that population-wide facial masking might benefit both components of the response."* Facial Masking for Covid-19 ? Potential for ?Variolation? as We Await a Vaccine John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 12:46:46 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 05:46:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.com> References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.co m> Message-ID: <002801d68770$7226f150$5674d3f0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Anton Sherwood Subject: Re: [ExI] diamonds falling On 2020-9-09 20:55, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We have a place for all this. >...I know a place where the music is fine and the lights are always low. >...I know a place where we can go. Thanks for that pleasant reminder Anton. This was Petula Clark's finest hour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws-dbq0CDtc But ponder this. Someone makes a fun reference to a song from the long time agos, a real swingin beat, happy fun song, and its in your head, you know the tune but you don't really recall the lyrics, you get the I know a place where the music fine and something something it?s a real swingin space and yadda yakky no mask on your face... oh wait, that can't be right. But it's gone, haven't heard that tune in 50 years, don't even remember who sang it. Isn't it just wicked cool to have the internet right here? We can even watch that drop-dead gorgeous Petula jiggle her stuff, oh my. Are we living in a dream, or what? I keep fearing I will wake up and poof, we will be back where we were a mere 30 years ago. Without this internet, I am suddenly dumber than boiled rutabaga. We all are, and it wouldn't matter much if we are individually smart, all of it would live, learn and die right here inside this one hairy shell. But now... we are all individually-replaceable components in a virtual superintelligence. Life... is... goooooood... spike From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 13:23:40 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 06:23:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] they never recover Message-ID: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> I have been using this as my primary data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Spain, UK and Sweden apparently have a particularly lethal strain of covid, for once these patients get that strain, they never recover. They don't have an elevated risk of death necessarily, and they can go about their business after the symptoms go away. But according to the dataset, in those three countries, no one ever recovers. In UK, Sweden and Spain, if you catch covid, you will eventually perish. Might be 80 years from now, but you're a goner. This is all lending new credibility to the notion that Belgium has been claiming the whole time: you cannot compare these directly: different countries count their dead and their living differently. Patience please, this all leads back to Sturgis. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 13:42:30 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 14:42:30 +0100 Subject: [ExI] they never recover In-Reply-To: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> References: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, 10 Sep 2020 at 14:26, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > I have been using this as my primary data source: > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ > > Spain, UK and Sweden apparently have a particularly lethal strain of covid, for once these patients get that strain, they never recover. They don?t have an elevated risk of death necessarily, and they can go about their business after the symptoms go away. But according to the dataset, in those three countries, no one ever recovers. In UK, Sweden and Spain, if you catch covid, you will eventually perish. Might be 80 years from now, but you?re a goner. > > This is all lending new credibility to the notion that Belgium has been claiming the whole time: you cannot compare these directly: different countries count their dead and their living differently. > > spike > _______________________________________________ That is no longer true for the UK. See: Quote: 12 August 2020 A review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000, to 41,329, the government has announced. The recalculation is based on a new definition of who has died from Covid. Previously, people in England who died at any point following a positive test, regardless of cause, were counted in the figures. But there will now be a cut-off of 28 days, providing a more accurate picture of the epidemic. This brings England's measure in line with the other UK nations. ---------------------- BillK From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 14:53:08 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 09:53:08 -0500 Subject: [ExI] quote of the day Message-ID: >From a column by Jan Hillegas: "If you don't want Medicare for all, then who do you think should get quality health care and who are you willing to let die for lack of it?" bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 15:13:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:13:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] they never recover In-Reply-To: References: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007701d68784$fd63fe70$f82bfb50$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- >> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] they never recover On Thu, 10 Sep 2020 at 14:26, spike jones via extropy-chat > >> Spain, UK and Sweden apparently have a particularly lethal strain of covid, for once these patients get that strain, they never recover. ... you?re a goner...different countries count their dead and their living differently... spike > _______________________________________________ >...That is no longer true for the UK. See: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711> >...A review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000...people in England who died at any point following a positive test, regardless of cause, were counted in the figures... BillK ---------------------- Thanks BillK. >>...Patience please, this all leads back to Sturgis... Regarding the UK's cutoff of 28 days, plenty of Sturgis ralliers came and went by 14 August, even though some events continued until the end of the main event on 16 August. We are still short a bunch of covid deaths in that group of half million proles. _______________________________________________ >...there will now be a cut-off of 28 days... BillK This bit about time limits is something we Yanks have not agreed upon, but it gets more complicated here perhaps. The counties hand up data to the state level, and the state hands up data to the fed (CDC.) But the CDC may not hand back down standards for reporting. They can ask nicely and they might get it in most cases, but the result is kinda like Europe: the nations all choose their own favorite standards, and they don't all match. In Spain and Sweden, they still never recover, and in Belgium, only about 19 percent ever do. OK then. USA, states. Each state is analogous to a European nation, each reports what it reports and the Fed may not dictate rules. If they try, they run into 4th amendment restrictions, and that is their own rules. If they try to find a way around A4, the Supreme Court kicks their federal butts, which is why I am such a big fan of the Supreme Court. I love em even when they do things I don't like. The fed has no legal authority to snoop into Americans' medical records. OK Sturgis. Now we have kind of a special-case dataset, a big one. But... they can't count as a Sturgis covid death those who already tested positive before the rally. They can't get away with that crap because there are too many of us amateur epidemiologist bikers watching every move carefully. We will know if some hapless covid corpse with a crowbar embedded in his damn skull is passed off a covid WITH or OF fatality, even if it was that, kinda indirectly: he had the virus, tested positive, recovered but gave it to his bride which is why she didn't go with him to the rally and why he did whatever it was which resulted in his final date with the blunt instrument. Well, OK, that kinda thing happens. The information security system around Sturgis is better than the Federal government's, but classified secrets do leak. The Sturgis dataset is different and valuable: no political angle to it, and eeeeverybody wants to study it, for good reason: if we can examine every Sturgis covid fatality, we can see if there is any viral mutation taking place, and perhaps there is a new strain which is less likely to produce the lethal cytokine storm, or whatever it is that kills real covid patients. Sloppy reporting becomes more difficult. This is the kind of data even a rocket scientist can understand. spike From sparge at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 15:25:16 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 11:25:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] quote of the day In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 10:55 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > From a column by Jan Hillegas: > > "If you don't want Medicare for all, then who do you think should get > quality health care and who are you willing to let die for lack of it?" > Classic false dichotomy. I don't want government-run health insurance and I also don't want people to die from lack of insurance. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 15:42:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:42:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] they never recover In-Reply-To: <007701d68784$fd63fe70$f82bfb50$@rainier66.com> References: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> <007701d68784$fd63fe70$f82bfb50$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <008f01d68789$0bb7c2f0$232748d0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: spike at rainier66.com _______________________________________________ >>...there will now be a cut-off of 28 days... BillK >... there are too many of us amateur epidemiologist bikers watching every move carefully. We will know ...spike I am watching myself carefully for wishful thinking. Perhaps covid protection doesn't come from a mask or a non-existent vaccine but rather from "...Come on bitch, grab your do-rag and let the good times ROLL baby!" We are all eager to latch onto good news. If so, that would be the best news I have heard since last January. spike From dsunley at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 16:06:12 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 10:06:12 -0600 Subject: [ExI] they never recover In-Reply-To: <008f01d68789$0bb7c2f0$232748d0$@rainier66.com> References: <004101d68775$9a00b7b0$ce022710$@rainier66.com> <007701d68784$fd63fe70$f82bfb50$@rainier66.com> <008f01d68789$0bb7c2f0$232748d0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Null hypothesis: government epidemiologists aren't particularly interested in analyzing a real world, independently verifiable "signal" for... reasons. The numbers are all just Ohio, and always have been. On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 9:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: spike at rainier66.com > > _______________________________________________ > > >>...there will now be a cut-off of 28 days... BillK > > >... there are too many of us amateur epidemiologist bikers watching every > move carefully. We will know ...spike > > > I am watching myself carefully for wishful thinking. Perhaps covid > protection doesn't come from a mask or a non-existent vaccine but rather > from "...Come on bitch, grab your do-rag and let the good times ROLL baby!" > > We are all eager to latch onto good news. If so, that would be the best > news I have heard since last January. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 16:19:44 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 09:19:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free Message-ID: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> This video was taken not far from where my parents once had a cattle ranch: https://www.facebook.com/dale.voris/videos/3159656740819466/ Owwww, damn. The local firefighters caught a break: it is dead still calm here. This NOAA site is good: https://fire.airnow.gov/ Usually the breeze on this coast blows west to east, but when it goes the other way, it gets blasted hot and dry which means wildfire gets way harder to control. That map out there shows what looks to me like the result of smoke blowing out over the sea to the west. I am having some minor lung difficulties, and can imagine Adrian is having even more (he lives toward the richer side of the valley) but it's not bad today. If I can lay off the beclomethasone and stay with just albuterol, that stuff won't hurt anything. I have the option of hitching up the camper and hauling the fam out east toward the clean air, and my son can go right on with school as if nothing is different (I have a mobile hot spot (with pleeeenty of bandwidth.)) Junky old cars, but bandwidth of CHAMPIONS! It's what we nerds and geeks do with our money. Ain't it cool? Only since recently have proles had the option to haul their family out to a cleaner safer area, while still being able to go to work and school as if they were still crammed back in that smoky old suburb or city. The internet doesn't just make us smarter, it sets us freeeeeeee free as a bird, free. This is a dream. Fire cannot stop us. Epidemics cannot stop us. We can unpack and stay safe. You and I lived to see this day. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 16:19:55 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 11:19:55 -0500 Subject: [ExI] weather Message-ID: We did not have a normal summer here. No 100s (F, of course) - not even above 95. Has the weather been unusual where you are? bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Thu Sep 10 16:30:35 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 09:30:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] quote of the day In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 2020-9-10 07:53, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > From a column by Jan Hillegas: > > "If you don't want Medicare for all, then who do you think should?get > quality health care and who are you willing to let die for lack of it?" On the other hand, who should be sacrificed as regulators cartelize whole sectors of the economy for "consumer safety"? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 17:35:45 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 10:35:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] weather In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The weather here has been described as "Mordor". That is not usual for this (or any) time of year. On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 9:32 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > We did not have a normal summer here. No 100s (F, of course) - not even > above 95. Has the weather been unusual where you are? bill w > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 17:37:42 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 10:37:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] quote of the day In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 8:26 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 10:55 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> From a column by Jan Hillegas: >> >> "If you don't want Medicare for all, then who do you think should get >> quality health care and who are you willing to let die for lack of it?" >> > > Classic false dichotomy. I don't want government-run health insurance and > I also don't want people to die from lack of insurance. > When you look at how many people died because they could not afford treatment without government-run health insurance, and that in equivalent cases in other countries with government-run health insurance the people could get treatment, the dichotomy seems true. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 17:41:49 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 10:41:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 9:21 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I am having some minor lung difficulties, and can imagine Adrian is having > even more (he lives toward the richer side of the valley) > For unrelated reasons, we had multiple air purifiers. They are running full bore. I am fine so long as I don't leave the house for long - which was already my plan thanks to coronavirus. One of my housemates is having major difficulties, but then, he's why we had the purifiers even for normal conditions. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 17:54:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 10:54:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] weather In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <002e01d6879b$5dc43a30$194cae90$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] weather >?The weather here has been described as "Mordor". That is not usual for this (or any) time of year? That August lightning storm was the craziest thing I ever saw in the 32 yrs I have lived in the valley. Lightning is very rare here. When I grew up in central Florida, it was common to hear thunder every day for weeks in a row in the summer. Here even rain is very rare in August. That thunder should happen in August: very odd. Old men who grew here had never seen it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 18:09:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 11:09:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] we are free On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 9:21 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: I am having some minor lung difficulties, and can imagine Adrian is having even more (he lives toward the richer side of the valley) >?For unrelated reasons, we had multiple air purifiers. They are running full bore. I am fine so long as I don't leave the house for long - which was already my plan thanks to coronavirus. One of my housemates is having major difficulties, but then, he's why we had the purifiers even for normal conditions? I might end up going that filtration route, but it might not help: I damn sure am spending a lot of time outdoors. My daily walk distance average is hovering near 8 miles a day. That distance doesn?t happen quickly. My reasoning: smoke be damned, this covid business appears to be a bigger health risk than having to whoof on some albuterol (and the immune system benefit from sunshine theory has the ring of truth ( and I decided to toss the beclomethasone (they said it was a steroid (I didn?t get buff at all from that (so no need of risking my future career in professional baseball or as an Olympic athlete (although I don?t know if the Humility Olympics bans competitors for steroid use.))))) Adrian best wishes to your housemate for a speedy recovery. It already looks brighter than yesterday. The street lights didn?t come on today. This too shall pass. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 18:18:48 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 14:18:48 -0400 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 12:21 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > https://fire.airnow.gov/ > The contrast between CA and NV is dramatic. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 20:35:43 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 21:35:43 +0100 Subject: [ExI] black biggies In-Reply-To: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> References: <02e601d68526$3bdeb1b0$b39c1510$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, 7 Sep 2020 at 15:53, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > These LIGO results just keep blowing our minds. They recently announced a merger of two black holes of mass 85 and 66 solar masses, which I thought had to be a typo or a mistake when I first read it, but they claim it is true. That 85 sol black hole is too big to have formed by the usual path as we (or as I) understand it. > > To be that size, it would hafta have formed by a previous black hole merger, and if so, that too is quite mysterious by my understanding of cosmology. Even the smaller of this pair is close to the limits of the standard model of black hole formation. > > spike > _______________________________________________ Ethan Siegel discusses this event and various possible theories about where these large black holes might have come from. (More data required!). Quote: LIGO?s Biggest Mass Merger Ever Foretells A Black Hole Revolution When two black holes that shouldn?t exist are seen merging, physics has some explaining to do. Ethan Siegel Sep 10, 2020 ------------------------ BillK From bronto at pobox.com Thu Sep 10 20:51:06 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 13:51:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> I sometimes wonder (how (you keep track (of how many (parentheses (to pop (when you finish (a sentence))))))). -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 21:32:12 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 14:32:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 1:52 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I sometimes wonder (how (you keep track (of how many (parentheses (to > pop (when you finish (a sentence))))))). > It's a learned skill (from programming (where you have to keep track of parentheses in this manner (often manually, as many tools don't track it (or you're not even using tools)), the main feedback being if you don't do it your program crashes (which is quite the (near-instant) motivator to learn to track them))). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 21:34:20 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 14:34:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 11:11 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian best wishes to your housemate for a speedy recovery. > His declared intent is to live long enough to see his son graduate next June. After that he figures he doesn't have long to live (and he's not the type to seriously consider cryo, or any other option we might suggest). I am not as pessimistic about his probable lifespan as he is, but it seems easiest to "win" that argument by just waiting until he fails to die on time. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 10 21:58:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 14:58:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> Message-ID: <00de01d687bd$7f94b870$7ebe2950$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] we are free I sometimes wonder (how (you keep track (of how many (parentheses (to pop (when you finish (a sentence))))))). -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org _______________________________________________ Estimation, me lad! (or failing that, still more digression (but recognize the reason for it to start with (that free thinking is often the best thinking.))) Speaking of which... a friend just now discovered Jack Kerouac (now THERE's a lad who took digressive writing to a new level (making his writing flow like Charlie Parker on the sax (which was simultaneously chaotic and profound.))) You can tell when I really get on something, I focus and mostly stop doing that nested parentheses business. Example, this Sturgis rally crowd who just keep refusing to die. Why do they keep not dying? We have a clear, unambiguous, large dataset, every person on this planet either did or did not go to Sturgis. That half million who did are easily identifiable after the fact and they are being watched and measured. They keep not dying, and we don't know why. The people who do this kind of thing seem reluctant to talk about it and I don't know why on them either. This seems like a huge monster important signal, even more than that 66/85 which coulda just had the courtesy to have happened a coupla months later so my mind wouldn't be blown by both barrels at the same time. Then I could focus on one mind-blower at a time. That megamerger happened ten billion years ago, so that can wait a few weeks while I struggle to understand the Sturgis data, which just keeps on astounding, and the epidemiologist community just keeps on not explaining it, or hell, even acknowledging it. So we are left with economists flat-out contradicting what we all plainly see and offering absurd conclusions based on cell phone pings and whatever hallucinogens are popular with that crowd these days, and all the while we are left ignoring some important information, which leads to a collective failure to recognize a possible mechanism and a possible method for reducing covid risk: get your ass outdoors, expose it to the sun. If modesty forbids, then cover that and expose as much other skin as possible. Encourage others to do likewise, maintain social distance, drop this apparently ineffective shelter-in-place notion. Try something! The bikers did, they aren't dying, and we still don't know why. Notice, no parentheses. Now lose the clothes and hit the backyard. spike From msd001 at gmail.com Thu Sep 10 23:35:42 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2020 19:35:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020, 4:52 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I sometimes wonder (how (you keep track (of how many (parentheses (to > pop (when you finish (a sentence))))))). > One way (and how some of the fancy programmer editors do it) is to put the close immediately after the open, then move the cursor between them before continuing... even if you click to another part of the text, the close-paren is already in place. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 04:02:37 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 00:02:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] weather In-Reply-To: <002e01d6879b$5dc43a30$194cae90$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d6879b$5dc43a30$194cae90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <2A7DDAB6-E5D5-4E0A-AB38-5F61ADCB40D5@gmail.com> Weather was in the 105 range for 3-ish weeks. Unusual but not entirely unheard of. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 04:24:57 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 00:24:57 -0400 Subject: [ExI] bikers again and smallpox In-Reply-To: <017c01d68711$57a8ea90$06fabfb0$@rainier66.com> References: <00f801d68230$a9b23d40$fd16b7c0$@rainier66.com> <015001d68242$1207c5c0$36175140$@rainier66.com> <02b101d68274$66517540$32f45fc0$@rainier66.com> <030f01d682bf$17adf850$4709e8f0$@rainier66.com> <03e701d682e8$3b7dc4d0$b2794e70$@rainier66.com> <98A8BFE1-5444-401C-9CBD-46C039F2F09C@gmail.com> <002401d6833d$86781a30$93684e90$@rainier66.com> <004001d6839b$40ba5090$c22ef1b0$@rainier66.com> <009001d683c9$72600990$57201cb0$@rainier66.com> <02a201d684cb$c6ef08f0$54cd1ad0$@rainier66.com> <727E0B1B-F949-41DF-9D7E-E3BFA1013DC3@gmail.com> <009901d68622$7caef860$760ce920$@rainier66.com> <007401d68637$c9b9ab40$5d2d01c0$@rainier66.com> <016f01d6870b$d94bc5a0$8be350e0$@rainier66.com> <017c01d68711$57a8ea90$06fabfb0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: WSJ not impressed: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sturgis-statistical-misfire-11599694411 On Wed, Sep 9, 2020, 9:30 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > >?At some point the epidemiologists must explain a stunning observation: > the bikers keep not dying?Epidemiologists have a lotta splainin to do?spike > > > > > > Please, my sincere apologies for going on about this. In the runup, for > weeks, or months really, we heard so much about how this would be a > catastrophe and a super-spreader and all that. But it wasn?t, and now it > feels like a big shrug: OK that didn?t show what we expected, so? never > mind, onto something else. > > > > Well wait a minute. We have economists and journalists filling the > vacuum, writing panic-porn for the masses claiming that it did show what > they predicted, while the people who are qualified to get to the answers on > this slink away quietly. Why is it that way down here in Squaresville, L7 > non-hipster daddy-o nanoscopic spike seems to be asking: Why do the bikers > keep not dying? Why am I writing on and on, annoying my own friends to no > end with my obsession, but the professional community are stone cold silent > on what looks like a huge obvious signal, one that has enormous > significance and stunning implications? > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From emerhorne at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 11:25:21 2020 From: emerhorne at gmail.com (Tristan Linck) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 07:25:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] weather In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020, 12:33 William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > We did not have a normal summer here. No 100s (F, of course) - not even > above 95. Has the weather been unusual where you are? bill w > _______________________________________________ > Nothing too out of the ordinary in this part of Ohio (for reference, the town of Hamilton! that comes up from time to time on the list is just down the road a piece) > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 11:49:31 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 07:49:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] we are free In-Reply-To: <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> References: <00d801d6878e$32839bc0$978ad340$@rainier66.com> <005001d6879d$8cc1e1a0$a645a4e0$@rainier66.com> <2d8743a2-3ddf-dafd-3815-9aeb3118d0ea@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 10, 2020 at 4:53 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I sometimes wonder (how (you keep track (of how many (parentheses (to > pop (when you finish (a sentence))))))). > Emacs will do that for you. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 12:28:05 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 08:28:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The strongest magnetic field ever detected Message-ID: The strongest magnetic field ever detected was just found by a Chinese astronomical X-ray orbital telescope, it is in a Pulsar called GRO J1008-57. The Pulsar has a magnetic field of about one billion Tesla. By comparison a hospital MRI machine has a field of about 2 Tesla, and the strongest magnetic field humans have ever produced was 45.5 Tesla at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory at Tallahassee Florida in 1999; it took 30 MW of power to run and nobody has been able to beat that 35 ton magnet's record since then. Strongest magnetic field in universe directly detected by X-ray space observatory John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 13:24:53 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 14:24:53 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Why wildfire smoke is so bad for your lungs Message-ID: What?s in wildfire smoke, and why is it so bad for your lungs? August 20, 2020 The health impact of wildfire exposure depends in part on the fire itself and how much smoke a person breathes in, how often and for how long. Quote: Be aware that not all face masks protect against smoke particles. In the context of COVID-19, the best data currently suggests that a cloth mask benefits public health, especially for those around the mask wearer, but also to some extent for the person wearing the mask. However, most cloth masks will not capture small wood smoke particles. That requires an N95 mask in conjunction with fit testing for the mask and training in how to wear it. Without a proper fit, N95s do not work as well. ------------- The author doesn't mention it but this comment applies to airborne microscopic COVID-19 virus particles as well. BillK From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 15:15:19 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 11:15:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 Message-ID: ?Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?? I was sitting in my office at ORNL in Building 1000 (now a parking lot) when a coworker came down the hall saying terrorists had a crashed a plane into the World Trade Center. My office had a TV cable for some reason, so we wheeled in a TV and hooked it up. People gathered around and watched as the second plane hit. Of course, if it happened today we'd all be watching on our desktops/laptops/phones. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 11 15:35:11 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 08:35:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <3b4b7fdc-bebd-e8f7-6f67-2b4893794822@pobox.com> I got the word in terse mail and thought a joke was going over my head. Someone else got a phone call: "Happy birthday. Now go turn on the TV." "What channel?" "Any channel." "Oh shit." -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 15:36:40 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 11:36:40 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I was working at 110 Wall St. in a trading shop which is almost on the East river. After the first plane hit (it was reported as a small craft accident initially), a friend and I stepped out to go see the tower. Immediately upon leaving the building, there was a shower of confetti and what looked like tin foil pieces raining down on us (which reflects the incredible force of the impact as if you look up 110 Wall in relation to ground zero, it is not an insubstantial distance). There were even burned, half sheets of documents l could see on the ground. On our way to see the tower, the second plane hit and all hell broke loose on the ground. There were people running everywhere near the Park chaotically, some of them trying to make cell phone calls in vain. After seeing both towers on fire, we fled back to the office. It was hard to believe what I was seeing. We ultimately decided to walk up Wall St to Broadway to make the trek to midtown in an attempt to get out of the city (I live in CT). As we were walking up Wall St near the stock exchange, the first tower collapsed and I saw an enormous cloud of debris coming over Trinity Church like something out of a disaster movie. We tried a side street and the cloud was still coming. At this point, as I ran back to the office, I was concerned about a domino effect as I was unaware at the time that the collapse had been straight down. I briefly considered jumping into the East river (seriously) but ultimately made the decision to return to our office building. As I stood in the lobby with others, I watched the cloud make its way to the end of Wall St and engulf the entire area, leaving inches thick layers of dust over the entire area. I also saw one unfortunate who did not get to cover in time and was completely covered in dust/ash when enough of the smoke cleared to have some visibility. I went back up to our floor to figure out what to do next in shock. In the most surreal moment of the day, we watched the footage on CNBC showing the full extent of the cloud now covering the lower third of Manhattan with us firmly . Those of us who were non-residents of the city decided to get the f out of Dodge as quickly as possible by hook or crook. The landlord gave us water soaked rags to cover our faces as best as possible from the toxic miasma that hung over the city all day. It was very irritating to the lungs without the rags unsurprisingly, but they provided a great deal of relief. We walked along the now empty East Side highway as Broadway was totally inaccessible and inadvisable. Kind residents along the way handed us waters and encouraged us on our trek. We eventually made it on foot to a friend's apartment in Midtown and I began monitoring the Metro North train schedule. I also seriously contemplated walking out of the city along the train tracks if none were running, but I would havee been lucky not to kill myself in doing so as it involved going into an underground tunnel with live third rails and walking over bridges. Eventually, I found out Metro North (train) was doing one emergency run out of the city to destinations north including CT making all local stops and was able to get standing room only on it. It was packed with people in every conceivable space, and while an uncomfortable very long journey home I was thankful at the end of it. I consider myself extremely lucky compared to everyone more unfortunate, but at the same time, it was the most powerful large scale trauma (and only) I have experienced in my life. It is still extremely difficult for me to watch any footage from that day as emotions come flooding back even now, these many years later. I'm not someone who needs to be reminded to never forget. In an unfortunate coincidence, my wife's birthday is today, which makes this a bittersweet one for me. On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 11:16 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > ?Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?? > > I was sitting in my office at ORNL in Building 1000 (now a parking lot) > when a coworker came down the hall saying terrorists had a crashed a plane > into the World Trade Center. My office had a TV cable for some reason, so > we wheeled in a TV and hooked it up. People gathered around and watched as > the second plane hit. > > Of course, if it happened today we'd all be watching on our > desktops/laptops/phones. > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 15:52:44 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 08:52:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00b301d68853$97540f60$c5fc2e20$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dave Sill via extropy-chat Cc: Dave Sill Subject: [ExI] 9/11 >?I was sitting in my office at ORNL in Building 1000 ? >?-Dave Dave, you?re a nuke guy? This is the first time you mentioned that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 16:01:40 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 10:01:40 -0600 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: <00b301d68853$97540f60$c5fc2e20$@rainier66.com> References: <00b301d68853$97540f60$c5fc2e20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I was doing my first class of the first year of my Education degree at the University of Manitoba. The tvs in the Student Union building were running the story, but there were no real details yet. My first thought when I heard "an airplane hit one of the WTC towers" was "like, a Cessna or something?". Classes were still being held as normal, so we were in a bit of a media bubble all morning. I had a Palm Vx with a Minstrel CDPD modem, so I was the only person, probably in the building, possibly on campus, with mobile internet. I was getting updates from CNN's mobile site throughout the morning. [Yeah, I had internet in my pocket before it was cool. Probably made it easier to resist upgrading to the then ridiculously expensive smartphones a few years later.] On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 9:54 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *Dave Sill via extropy-chat > *Cc:* Dave Sill > *Subject:* [ExI] 9/11 > > > > > >?I was sitting in my office at ORNL in Building 1000 ? > > > > >?-Dave > > > > > > > > Dave, you?re a nuke guy? This is the first time you mentioned that. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 16:01:47 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 12:01:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: <00b301d68853$97540f60$c5fc2e20$@rainier66.com> References: <00b301d68853$97540f60$c5fc2e20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 11:54 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Dave, you?re a nuke guy? This is the first time you mentioned that. > No, I'm an IT guy. And ORNL is way more than just nuke stuff. The bradykinin/COVID article I posted is one non-nuke example. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 17:07:15 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 10:07:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 8:17 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > ?Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?? > I was working at a startup in a small brickhouse office; even though this was on the opposite coast, when the news of the first plane hit came through we were told to go home for the day. I remember walking out, looking up, and noticing how unusually clear of air traffic the skies were for that time of day. (We had heard that all air traffic was being grounded ASAP.) I then remember the endless showings, over and over again, of the crash - to the point that psychologists started warning about people suffering vicarious trauma through repeated watchings, and urging people who might be thus affected to stop rewatching it. I also remember being slightly irritated how the repetition of the same news crowded out everything else on the TV. I had already started shifting away from watching TV to favoring Internet media, and while my memories of 19 years ago are hazy, I would not be surprised if this significantly contributed toward my change in tastes. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 11 17:32:29 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 10:32:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees Message-ID: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser than they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess what - stop fires! Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the tree population at a more natural density? That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 17:35:42 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:35:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this list instead of the default "Errr climate change." Whether anyone in government learns from what experts have actually proposed as policy is an entirely different story. In any case, I hope all affected are staying safe out there! On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:33 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser than > they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess > what - stop fires! > > Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the tree > population at a more natural density? > > That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 17:53:54 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:53:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:34 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser than > they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess > what - stop fires! > > Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the tree > population at a more natural density? > > That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. > I'm pretty sure California's foresters know how to manage forests to minimize the risk of uncontrollable fires, that they've communicated that to their superiors, and that that communication has reached the political level, where those suggestions have been deemed not conducive to re-election. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 11 18:02:02 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 11:02:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-11 10:35, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this > list instead of the default "Errr climate change." To be fair, an event can have multiple causes, like "there's a contagion going around" vs "I didn't wash my hands". Overpopulation of trees would lead to bigger fires anyway, but hotter summers likely made them happen a bit sooner. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:11:35 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 14:11:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: True, I'm not in denial that the ridiculous current temperatures certainly make things much worse, but actual forest management experts have known what needs to be done, and appear to be ignored once it reaches someone who is in charge of actually making that happen. I'm referring more to the popular press that finds it convenient to blame any current natural disaster on climate change because it fits the narrative. On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 2:02 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-11 10:35, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this > > list instead of the default "Errr climate change." > > To be fair, an event can have multiple causes, like "there's a contagion > going around" vs "I didn't wash my hands". Overpopulation of trees > would lead to bigger fires anyway, but hotter summers likely made them > happen a bit sooner. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:17:08 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:17:08 +0000 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 5:55 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:34 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser than >> they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess >> what - stop fires! >> >> Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the tree >> population at a more natural density? >> >> That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. >> > > I'm pretty sure California's foresters know how to manage forests to > minimize the risk of uncontrollable fires, that they've communicated that > to their superiors, and that that communication has reached the political > level, where those suggestions have been deemed not conducive to > re-election. > > -Dave > I believe the long-term bias has been for zero tolerance for fires. And this has lead to a lot of fuel around for fires when they do happen -- as they will. And, yeah, for years I've heard forestry folks say some fire is a healthy part of healthy forest/ecosystem, but the bias against fire is strong here. It's kind of like trying to tell people some housefires lead to healthier communities. So it's easy to see why most people (or most voters or most homeowners living near all that fuel) are tough sells on this issue. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:17:58 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:17:58 +0000 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: I agree. It's not either/or here, but likely both/and On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 6:03 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-11 10:35, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this > > list instead of the default "Errr climate change." > > To be fair, an event can have multiple causes, like "there's a contagion > going around" vs "I didn't wash my hands". Overpopulation of trees > would lead to bigger fires anyway, but hotter summers likely made them > happen a bit sooner. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:21:40 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:21:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: There's another reason to find a problem with the climate change explanation here. Yes, I do agree it's a factor, but it's also a factor that let's everyone off the hook. It's like the old explanation of 'society won't allow it.' Yeah, sure, everyone might be blamed for climate change, but it's not going to make any immediate difference in policy, especially difficult choices like controlled burns, allowing more fires to happen, or telling folks not to build near scenic forests. From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 11 18:26:03 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 11:26:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: <3d8d6b96-0db3-3596-4698-9dd86e4f45d2@pobox.com> On 2020-9-11 11:17, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > It's kind of like trying to tell people some housefires lead to > healthier communities. So it's easy to see why most people (or most > voters or most homeowners living near all that fuel) are tough sells > on this issue. Where's Bastiat's broken window fallacy when you need it! -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 18:37:49 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 11:37:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> Message-ID: <016901d6886a$a6eb07a0$f4c116e0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees >>?The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser than they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess what - stop fires! >>?Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the tree population at a more natural density? >>?That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org >?It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this list instead of the default "Errr climate change." Whether anyone in government learns from what experts have actually proposed as policy is an entirely different story. >?In any case, I hope all affected are staying safe out there! Dylan If you go to the west coast redwood forests and understand what you are looking at (by reading their fire history, study their maps and chronologies) it is easy to see exactly what Anton?s post and Dylan?s is about. Most touristas come thru the forest at a dead run, hey ma look at the big trees ok saw it done it lets head to Vegas for the REAL fun. My ExI friends, don?t do that. If you come out to see the redwood forests, forget Vegas, forget San Francisco, make sure you really see and understand what you saw. Don?t just come to gawk. Come to study. Know what to look for before you get there. Camp, hike, stick around a while, look closely everywhere, notice details, gain understanding not just selfies in front of a giant tree trunk. For instance, look at the forest floor in places where they just do hafta fight fires (because of the homes and stuff in there.) Contrast that to places where they have realized that fire has to have its her eventually. Look down, get down on all four if your dignity allows (mine does (or if not, it outranked by my curiosity)) and really examine what is down there as well as what?s up there, because down there is closer and you can learn a lot more, make sure you really see what it was you came all that way to see. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:49:11 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:49:11 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: book In-Reply-To: References: <017001d6886a$d1d66d10$75834730$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: > Henrich: The Secret of Our Success - I am reading this for Spike, and > of course myself. > > > > I am glad I volunteered to read this book. It is mainly about group > psychology, a field of social psych that I never even taught, much less > researched. > > > > Update facts: two types of leaders in primitive cultures: dominant one, > who rule by threats, physical strength, etc. and who generally are not > imitated, and prestige leaders: the best arrowmaker, best hunter, best > weaver, pot maker, and so on. They are highly imitated and show no > dominance traits. They tend to be generous with their knowledge. Or like > Warren Buffett, attracting other people like him to donate half their > wealth. > > > > Both types exhibit reproductive success as usually measured. > > > > bill w > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 18:53:39 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:53:39 -0500 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: <016901d6886a$a6eb07a0$f4c116e0$@rainier66.com> References: <5ccdf7e7-1035-4323-0727-c86f2ab63cfe@pobox.com> <016901d6886a$a6eb07a0$f4c116e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: It seems to me that a lot of the blame for destruction, by fires like now and in and around L.A., mud slides, sinking real estate (Florida). is caused by the real estate industry and their paid lackeys on zoning boards. In short, people are building houses and living in places where a time bomb is going to go off sooner or later,and you can blame climate change and all that, but mostly I think those houses should never have been there to start with. bill w On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:44 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees > > > > > > > > >>?The fires are worse than they might be because the woods are denser > than > they would be if people had not worked so hard for decades to - guess > what - stop fires! > > >>?Can we hope for a policy shift, to tolerate small fires to keep the > tree > population at a more natural density? > > >>?That would mean more rationality than is typical in public policy. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > > > > > > > > > > >?It is refreshing to see the real cause and solution proposed on this > list instead of the default "Errr climate change." Whether anyone in > government learns from what experts have actually proposed as policy is an > entirely different story. > > > > >?In any case, I hope all affected are staying safe out there! Dylan > > > > > > > > > > If you go to the west coast redwood forests and understand what you are > looking at (by reading their fire history, study their maps and > chronologies) it is easy to see exactly what Anton?s post and Dylan?s is > about. > > > > Most touristas come thru the forest at a dead run, hey ma look at the big > trees ok saw it done it lets head to Vegas for the REAL fun. > > > > My ExI friends, don?t do that. If you come out to see the redwood > forests, forget Vegas, forget San Francisco, make sure you really see and > understand what you saw. Don?t just come to gawk. Come to study. Know > what to look for before you get there. Camp, hike, stick around a while, > look closely everywhere, notice details, gain understanding not just > selfies in front of a giant tree trunk. > > > > For instance, look at the forest floor in places where they just do hafta > fight fires (because of the homes and stuff in there.) Contrast that to > places where they have realized that fire has to have its her eventually. > Look down, get down on all four if your dignity allows (mine does (or if > not, it outranked by my curiosity)) and really examine what is down there > as well as what?s up there, because down there is closer and you can learn > a lot more, make sure you really see what it was you came all that way to > see. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 19:10:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 12:10:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: book In-Reply-To: References: <017001d6886a$d1d66d10$75834730$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <01aa01d6886f$2a641dc0$7f2c5940$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] Fwd: book Henrich: The Secret of Our Success - I am reading this for Spike, and of course myself. I am glad I volunteered to read this book?Both types exhibit reproductive success as usually measured. bill w Thanks BillW! There is zero point nada possibility of my being able to concentrate on this in the immediately foreseeable because of two things simultaneously rocking my world: the results of the Sturgis rally and that 66/85 merger from LIGO and VIRGO (sheesh how cool is THAT? (BOTH of those (and how often in this life do we face simultaneous crises vs now( when we who dig this kinda thing get to experience two simultaneous wicked cool things?))) I regret that those two things are happening simultaneously for they are having to compete with each other for my very limited brain capacity. Having to breathe smoke for days on end isn?t helping my concentration a bit. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Fri Sep 11 19:31:08 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 12:31:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] an unfortunate investment in trees In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200911123108.Horde.FnI4M9Ky5Xe3pET0Fo2h0ng@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Dylan Distasio: > True, I'm not in denial that the ridiculous current temperatures certainly > make things much worse, but actual forest management experts have known > what needs to be done, and appear to be ignored once it reaches someone who > is in charge of actually making that happen. I'm referring more to the > popular press that finds it convenient to blame any current natural > disaster on climate change because it fits the narrative. The investment in trees was sound, we just didn't sell before the bubble burst. Those trees have been sequestering carbon and counteracting greenhouse effects for centuries. If we had harvested them for lumber or simply bulldozed them under to turn into coal for future generations, then we would have removed said carbon from the carbon cycle to counteract our burning of fuel. But alas, we failed because we were too worried about ruining wildlife habitats and stuff. I think it is hilarious that we try to treat nature with kid gloves while nature itself gives less a shit than a honey badger. Now some 200 million tons of CO2 has been released into from the fires in California alone. Not to mention all the particulates and stuff. Setting controlled fires is a good method for preventing fires, however, logging and selling or bulldozing and burying old-growth forests followed by planting new trees would both prevent fires and slow global warming. I don't think that environmentalists have yet realized that they will not be able to both tread lightly and control the climate at the same time. Although I am glad that for the first time, the Democratic National Convention has finally embraced nuclear energy in its official party platform. That is at least a step in the right direction. Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 20:29:07 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:29:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes Message-ID: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> Adrian and other locals, you guys OK? I can scarcely breathe. I am very seriously considering hitching up the camper and heading east to Reno today. Adrian your housemate? Hows he? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 20:59:33 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 13:59:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising Message-ID: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> My chest is aching. Keith, how is it down your way? The freeway going out is clogged to a stop. Adrian, whadda we do now coach? Might head out at the cracka dawn for points east. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 105459 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 21:26:32 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 14:26:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 2:01 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian, whadda we do now coach? Might head out at the cracka dawn for > points east. > That may be a good solution for those who can. The lives of certain others depend on my staying where I am. That said, I remain safe within the air-doubly-purified bubble that is my house, heading out minimally. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 21:55:27 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 22:55:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: You might need to go further east than Reno. Check to find a place with clean air. You may need to go into hospital to get oxygen therapy if you get sick. Best wishes, BillK On Fri, 11 Sep 2020 at 22:02, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > My chest is aching. > Keith, how is it down your way? > > The freeway going out is clogged to a stop. > Adrian, whadda we do now coach? Might head out at the cracka dawn for points east. > > spike > _______________________________________________ From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 11 22:33:31 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 22:33:31 +0000 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Seattle is at 241 rn. Was outside a few minutes ago, but not without my bug mask. Still, everything I wore smells like smoke. Dan On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 9:01 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > My chest is aching. > > > > Keith, how is it down your way? > > > > The freeway going out is clogged to a stop. > > > > Adrian, whadda we do now coach? Might head out at the cracka dawn for > points east. > > > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 105459 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 11 23:23:49 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 16:23:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02d101d68892$9b4e6fe0$d1eb4fa0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] 228 and rising >...You might need to go further east than Reno. Check to find a place with clean air... Thanks for the source site BillK! I am watching the smoke maps and the smoke cloud movement. >...You may need to go into hospital to get oxygen therapy if you get sick. Best wishes, BillK Not one chance in hell I will go anywhere near the hospital, no way Jose, not even if I ride a motorcycle over there. I wouldn't do that even if I knew for sure I was immune to covid: there are people all over this valley who need that place and that oxygen worse than I do, people with more money than I have (so they are more deserving of medical care than I am (because they are older and sicker (and they paid for more of it than I did.))) On a brighter note: hey cool! My bride gave me one of those nifty FitBit watches for Christmas. It counts your pulse rate and logs it (no kidding {8^D). So I just noted that my pulse rate rises with falling air quality. I suppose it makes sense that it would, even though I don't really know the exact mechanism. Medics or medical hipsters, do those things really go together or is it coincidence? In any case, I just got back: I filled my fuel tank and made a tornado grocery trip, sucked up everything in the joint, crammed the camper full of food and supplies, got her ready to roll should we decide to bug on out for parts east. Reasoning: I am not the only one in the Silicon Valley who owns an RV, nor the only one looking at the smoke map. It looks great out about in Reno Nevada, and I have friends out there who will let me park in their driveway for a few days. But there will likely be few or no supplies available out there: the freeway is already clogged going north and east from here (which happens anyway on Friday afternoon) but this fleeing horde will devour everything edible in its path like a swarm of ravenous locusts on a ripe corn field. So I am self-contained now with at least a week and two weekends supply of everything, ready to roll if we decide to do that. If we do, it will be early tomorrow morning. The cool part: my son can still go right on to school Monday as if nothing happened: his school is all online now, his reference material too, he just goes right on as if all is normal from wherever he is because I bought a high-capacity mobile hotspot: this thing can get full internet from anywhere the phone operates, which is along any freeway I have ever traversed. Is this cool or what? My son can go to school wherever we are. I don't really want to go: if we find clear skies and clear air, it will be in the Nevada desert which this time of year is brutally hot. spike From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 11 23:27:53 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 16:27:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <13b72c4b-6312-12ea-af74-ced779207fcd@pobox.com> On 2020-9-11 13:59, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Might head out at the cracka dawn for points east. You ride a Cracodon? I thought they were extinct. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 00:01:02 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 17:01:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] 228 and rising In-Reply-To: <13b72c4b-6312-12ea-af74-ced779207fcd@pobox.com> References: <028201d6887e$738919b0$5a9b4d10$@rainier66.com> <13b72c4b-6312-12ea-af74-ced779207fcd@pobox.com> Message-ID: <000801d68897$ce16faa0$6a44efe0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] 228 and rising On 2020-9-11 13:59, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Might head out at the cracka dawn for points east. You ride a Cracodon? I thought they were extinct. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org _______________________________________________ Almost. My bike is 35 years old. They only built those for 3 yrs back in the 80s. There were a total of about 9600 of that model, and I own four of them. Oddity: I am feeling better now than I was earlier. Might be just sitting still is good when it is smoky. I was racing around getting ready to bug out which mighta made it worse. If instead, I would just take a chill pill Bill, that's all I need. spike From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 00:38:16 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 17:38:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> References: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:30 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian and other locals, you guys OK? > My air filters work wonderfully, even if that does mean I'm mostly trapped inside my house. (I can leave for brief excursions. Fortunately, wearing a mask to filter the air is highly socially acceptable right now. Double fortunately, the first production samples of the new mask we're making arrived a couple days ago, and it looks like the next batch may start production next week. I'd post a picture but I remember attachments not being allowed on this list.) > Adrian your housemate? Hows he? > Still alive. Coughing a lot. If only there was a cheap, effective, and easy to self-administer way to remove mucus and other obstructions from one's throat when the traditional method of throat clearing produces noise but fails to actually clear one's throat. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 00:52:03 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 17:52:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 1:30 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: Adrian and other locals, you guys OK? >?My air filters work wonderfully? I'd post a picture but I remember attachments not being allowed on this list.) They have been allowed for a while, but no guarantee they will archive correctly. If you take low-ish resolution photos and trim it, those will go on thru without having to bother ExiMod to approve them. I approved those for about the past 4 years. ExIMod hasn?t issued a ruling on those as I recall. Adrian your housemate? Hows he? >?Still alive. Coughing a lot. If only there was a cheap, effective, and easy to self-administer way to remove mucus and other obstructions from one's throat when the traditional method of throat clearing produces noise but fails to actually clear one's throat? Best wishes to him sir. I had an idea: I don?t think oxygen bottles are prescription, and there is an outlet for those practically within walking distance. I never actually tried to buy one, but I can?t imagine they would cost all that much. Get a low-flow regulator, set it for about a liter a minute, then one of those rigs they put on your finger when you go to the hospital, give yourself a bit of Goto O2 if necessary. Anyone here doing that? Or know anyone? I won?t even try that during the smoke however, which is supposed to last until Wednesday, for fear of depriving someone older and richer. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 01:01:57 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:01:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> References: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <003901d688a0$5070c140$f15243c0$@rainier66.com> Oy vey, perhaps we will just stay home. This is Stayton Oregon at noon: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/skies-turn-blood-red-above-22653854?fbclid=IwAR17WBmoluXL3p3CuLSKlRppx4MsWqsk7iq2VgO6hkn29R5lwgQV9MXaxMc spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 26261 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 01:47:30 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:47:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] black biggies Message-ID: <005b01d688a6$ad9dd8c0$08d98a40$@rainier66.com> OK I have an idea, but do be forewarned, it is a crazy one. Imagine a big galaxy with monster black hole at the center (I don?t know if this part is necessary (but might help.)) This theoretical galaxy is a really flat disc galaxy such as ESO 510-G13 rather than an elliptical and has a reaaallly crazy-huge gaseous accretion disc. Now imagine an ordinary tightly-bound pair of stars that somehow get into a highly elliptical orbit about that central black hole (I don?t have a clue how the pair would get into that kind of orbit, but imagine they did somehow.) OK then. During most of their orbit, they would be going slower than the more circular accretion disc, so gas would be catching up and falling into the pair. When the pair is close to the central mass, it would be going faster and catching up on the gas in the disc, so stuff would still be falling into the pair. They both grow that way, get really big, both go supernova and create ordinary black holes in a tight pair. OK, now imagine each of those two formed their own accretion discs out of the material in the bigger accretion disc in which they orbit. Perhaps they could grow to be monsters, all the while bleeding away angular momentum with respect to each other from the absorbed gas and stuff from the big disc. Then? they eventually grow to 66 and 85 and put on a spectacular show for us in 2020. Just describing it makes the whole scenario seem even more far-fetched, but I need some kind of baseline notion or my sanity will flee like bats from a cave at dusk. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sen.otaku at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 05:47:11 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 01:47:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <926C8567-D602-46EB-AF09-ACA3994BC663@gmail.com> In detention for not doing my homework... no recess unfortunately. My teacher was innocently grading papers and I was mindlessly watching the TV muted, with the closed captions on. I couldn?t quite read whole sentences yet but when I saw the first tower fall, I knew that something was really, really wrong. With uncharacteristic discretion I walked up to her desk and got her attention, then pointed to her TV. I was the first person in my school to know. She buzzed the principal and he immediately pulled the tornado drill, and each grade (100+ kids) got huddled into their own interior room while parents were called and we got sent home. I never saw 9/11 footage with the sound on until about 2011ish, and that?s when it finally had an emotional impact on me, hearing the news anchors and eyewitnesses and firemen freaking out. SR > On Sep 11, 2020, at 11:15 AM, Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > > ?Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?? From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 06:19:11 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 14:19:11 +0800 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Adrian Tymes wrote: "These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that is, thousands of nanometers - across." Well, you gotta start somewhere! Lol Eventually, scientists and engineers will shrink them down to proper Drexlerian proportions... John On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 11:31 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that > is, thousands of nanometers - across. > > On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:06 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both >> microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be >> on top of my list. >> >> I was so wrong. >> >> Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell >> University spearheaded a collaboration >> that tackled one of >> the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move in >> a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped >> microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a >> robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. >> >> Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky body >> equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be >> independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so >> accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a >> battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? >> >> If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots that >> relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. Like >> BigDog , they have mechanical legs >> that are controlled with silicon-based electronic components. This means >> that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse using decades of >> nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently make computer >> chips >> >> . >> >> Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical >> electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated >> with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations >> that respond to more complex commands. >> >> ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their microrobots,? >> wrote Drs. Allan >> Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. >> ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents >> that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic >> components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens >> the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be >> incorporated into robots so >> small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" >> >> [image: nano robo.jpg] >> I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric >> Drexler... >> >> >> https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 06:41:59 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2020 23:41:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> References: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 5:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > I'd post a picture but I remember attachments not being allowed on this > list.) > > > > They have been allowed for a while, but no guarantee they will archive > correctly. If you take low-ish resolution photos and trim it, those will > go on thru without having to bother ExiMod to approve them. > > > > I approved those for about the past 4 years. ExIMod hasn?t issued a > ruling on those as I recall. > Alright, let's see if this works. Does anyone see this message and the masks in a picture below? [image: 20200909_103712.jpg] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 20200909_103712.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 1807939 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 07:11:23 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 00:11:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Well yeah. Just stating so we know how far this has already gotten. On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 11:17 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian Tymes wrote: > "These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that > is, thousands of nanometers - across." > > Well, you gotta start somewhere! Lol Eventually, scientists and engineers > will shrink them down to proper Drexlerian proportions... > > John > > On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 11:31 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that >> is, thousands of nanometers - across. >> >> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:06 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both >>> microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be >>> on top of my list. >>> >>> I was so wrong. >>> >>> Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell >>> University spearheaded a collaboration >>> that tackled one of >>> the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move in >>> a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped >>> microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a >>> robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. >>> >>> Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky body >>> equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be >>> independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so >>> accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a >>> battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? >>> >>> If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots >>> that relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. >>> Like BigDog , they have >>> mechanical legs that are controlled with silicon-based electronic >>> components. This means that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse >>> using decades of nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently >>> make computer chips >>> >>> . >>> >>> Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical >>> electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated >>> with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations >>> that respond to more complex commands. >>> >>> ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their microrobots,? >>> wrote Drs. Allan >>> Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. >>> ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents >>> that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic >>> components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens >>> the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be >>> incorporated into robots so >>> small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" >>> >>> [image: nano robo.jpg] >>> I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric >>> Drexler... >>> >>> >>> https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 12 08:16:08 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:16:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <53537152-4e67-c9ec-7377-1031acf3954a@zaiboc.net> On 12/09/2020 07:48, extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org wrote: > Re: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes > From: > Adrian Tymes > Date: > 12/09/2020, 07:41 > > To: > ExI chat list > > > On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 5:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > > I'd post a picture but I remember attachments not being allowed > on this list.) > > They have been allowed for a while, but no guarantee they will > archive correctly.? If you take low-ish resolution photos and trim > it, those will go on thru without having to bother ExiMod to > approve them. > > I approved those for about the past 4 years.? ExIMod hasn?t issued > a ruling on those as I recall. > > > ?Alright, let's see if this works.? Does anyone see this message and > the masks in a picture below? Yes, but the masks are defective. They have great big holes in them! :D :D -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 08:25:34 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 01:25:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: <53537152-4e67-c9ec-7377-1031acf3954a@zaiboc.net> References: <53537152-4e67-c9ec-7377-1031acf3954a@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 1:18 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yes, but the masks are defective. > > They have great big holes in them! :D :D > That's just the base assembly. The final product has disposable filters that cover the holes. The filter material is what you actually breathe through. This is why the masks come in 2 parts, to press and hold the material between them. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 08:43:51 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 01:43:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: <53537152-4e67-c9ec-7377-1031acf3954a@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 1:25 AM Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 1:18 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Yes, but the masks are defective. >> >> They have great big holes in them! :D :D >> > > That's just the base assembly. The final product has disposable filters > that cover the holes. The filter material is what you actually breathe > through. This is why the masks come in 2 parts, to press and hold the > material between them. > Here is a picture of a fully assembled & packaged mask, so you can see the filter being held in place. (Not shown: the gasket around the face seal on the back side of the mask.) [image: 20200912_014009.jpg] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 20200912_014009.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 1761482 bytes Desc: not available URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 12 09:52:24 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 10:52:24 +0100 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 12/09/2020 09:58, Adrian Tymes wrote: > Here is a picture of a fully assembled & packaged mask,?so you can see > the?filter being held in place.? (Not shown: the gasket around the > face seal on the back side of the mask.) Pretty good. Now all you need is some customisation options... https://demotix.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/face-mask-scelet-780x776.jpg Most Creative Face Masks Made During Coronavirus Lockdown ... Most Creative Face Masks Made During Coronavirus Lockdown ... -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 12:09:33 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:09:33 +0800 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: How far do you think we will be in twenty years time? On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 3:14 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Well yeah. Just stating so we know how far this has already gotten. > > On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 11:17 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Adrian Tymes wrote: >> "These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that >> is, thousands of nanometers - across." >> >> Well, you gotta start somewhere! Lol Eventually, scientists and engineers >> will shrink them down to proper Drexlerian proportions... >> >> John >> >> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 11:31 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that >>> is, thousands of nanometers - across. >>> >>> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:06 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both >>>> microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be >>>> on top of my list. >>>> >>>> I was so wrong. >>>> >>>> Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell >>>> University spearheaded a collaboration >>>> that tackled one >>>> of the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move >>>> in a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped >>>> microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a >>>> robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. >>>> >>>> Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky >>>> body equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be >>>> independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so >>>> accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a >>>> battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? >>>> >>>> If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots >>>> that relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. >>>> Like BigDog , they have >>>> mechanical legs that are controlled with silicon-based electronic >>>> components. This means that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse >>>> using decades of nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently >>>> make computer chips >>>> >>>> . >>>> >>>> Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical >>>> electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated >>>> with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations >>>> that respond to more complex commands. >>>> >>>> ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their microrobots,? >>>> wrote Drs. Allan >>>> Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. >>>> ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents >>>> that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic >>>> components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens >>>> the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be >>>> incorporated into robots so >>>> small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" >>>> >>>> [image: nano robo.jpg] >>>> I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric >>>> Drexler... >>>> >>>> >>>> https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ >>>> >>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 12:32:16 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 05:32:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: <024101d6887a$333e31f0$99ba95d0$@rainier66.com> <002501d6889e$ee636530$cb2a2f90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <008a01d68900$c090d1d0$41b27570$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat I approved those for about the past 4 years. ExIMod hasn?t issued a ruling on those as I recall. Alright, let's see if this works. Does anyone see this message and the masks in a picture below? Sure do Adrian thanks. A good way to reduce bother to ExIMod is to delete the photo in the reply message. Another technique is to take the photo from back a ways, then trim it down. The photo is less resolution but more likely to get past the .5 megabyte size limit. I don?t know the actual size limit now, but it use to be half a meg. Modern camera phones are about a mB each, ja? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 12:39:57 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:39:57 +0800 Subject: [ExI] New Military Drone Fits in Backpack, Can Carry Lasers, Radio Jammers, Weapons Message-ID: "The company promises to inject artificial intelligence into drone-assisted missions in the near future, *Wired* reports , with the Ghost 4 performing tasks such as identifying targets much faster and more efficiently. Luckey called the Ghost a ?a Swiss army knife that can do everything? in a statement . The two-meter long aircraft can be folded to fit into a backpack and can withstand the roughest of conditions, including sand and sea water. Using artificial intelligence to identify targets is a controversial idea. For instance, the contract for Google?Project Maven, a Pentagon project that uses AI to identify drone targets in satellite images, ended up being abandoned due to mounting pressure from both employees and the general public." Luckey argues that the US is at risk of falling behind its adversaries, including Russia and China. ?I don?t think we can win an AI arms race by thinking it?s not going to happen,? he said in the statement." I would think AI in aerial drones is a serious secret project in the works, for the various major powers... https://futurism.com/the-byte/anduril-ghost-4-military-drone-lasers -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 13:06:37 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:06:37 +0800 Subject: [ExI] SF television: Raised by Wolves Message-ID: I am deeply enjoying this television series, by none other than the legendary Ridley Scott... "Raised by Wolves" might be the year's most original series, an audaciously cerebral science-fiction concept that covers so much ground in the premiere it's hard to imagine where the show can ultimately go. Produced by "Blade Runner" and "Alien's" Ridley Scott -- who also directed the first two episodes -- it's uneven in places, but by virtue of its risk-taking joins the alpha tier of the streaming pack." https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/03/entertainment/raised-by-wolves-review/index.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raised_by_Wolves_(American_TV_series) https://www.theringer.com/tv/2020/9/10/21430229/raised-by-wolves-review-hbo-max-ridley-scott -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 13:10:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 06:10:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] air down there Message-ID: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> Has anyone heard from Keith? It was about Tuesday since I last saw a post from him. According to the smoke map it is pretty chokey down there too. spike From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 14:55:41 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 07:55:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] air down there In-Reply-To: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> References: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <001701d68914$c979eb10$5c6dc130$@rainier66.com> Sheesh, looks like we would need to go all the way out to Wyoming to get outta the smoke: https://fire.airnow.gov/ And we would drive thru worse air than here to get out there: Sitting tight for now. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 61211 bytes Desc: not available URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 12 10:12:50 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 11:12:50 +0100 Subject: [ExI] smoke gets in yer eyes In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <8b5417d5-7ccb-2838-15a6-cd1d74a8b3f8@zaiboc.net> On 12/09/2020 09:58, Adrian Tymes wrote: > Here is a picture of a fully assembled & packaged mask,?so you can see > the?filter being held in place.? (Not shown: the gasket around the > face seal on the back side of the mask.) Ben Wrote: >Pretty good. >Now all you need is some customisation options... Hmm, obviously 'copy image' doesn't do what I though it did (copy an image). Try again... FacehuggerMask -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: FacehuggerMask.jpeg Type: image/jpeg Size: 114458 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: bhlbiciaaplobcdb.jpeg Type: image/jpeg Size: 103243 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: pmepakjfimklmikc.jpeg Type: image/jpeg Size: 91858 bytes Desc: not available URL: From ExiMod at protonmail.com Sat Sep 12 15:23:42 2020 From: ExiMod at protonmail.com (ExiMod) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:23:42 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Exi-Chat Large Images and Image Resizing Message-ID: The Exi-Chat list archive only contains text and small images. Posts that include a link to an online image will include the link text, so the image can be viewed from the archives so long as the link remains active. If you want to post a large image in the body of your post then it should first be greatly reduced from normal camera photo size. Aim for below 150KB size. Larger images (like Adrian's recent posts) can be specially allowed by the List Moderator but won't be stored in the list archive. There will usually be a delay until the List Moderator notices that a message is awaiting approval. The delay may be considerable depending on other activities and the Time Zone the List Moderator is currently in. These large posts also place a heavier load on the Exi-Chat mail server and all the recipient mail servers as they distribute a large image through to all list members. Resizing images is easy. Search for 'image resizing'. There are many free software apps / programs and online websites that do image resizing. Some will also allow cropping of images to remove unwanted parts of images. ExiMod -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 16:10:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:10:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Exi-Chat Large Images and Image Resizing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <006501d6891f$329c1690$97d443b0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of ExiMod via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] Exi-Chat Large Images and Image Resizing >?The Exi-Chat list archive only contains text and small images. Posts that include a link to an online image will include the link text, so the image can be viewed from the archives so long as the link remains active. >?If you want to post a large image in the body of your post then it should first be greatly reduced from normal camera photo size. Aim for below 150KB size. Larger images (like Adrian's recent posts) can be specially allowed by the List Moderator but won't be stored in the list archive. There will usually be a delay until the List Moderator notices that a message is awaiting approval. The delay may be considerable depending on other activities and the Time Zone the List Moderator is currently in. These large posts also place a heavier load on the Exi-Chat mail server and all the recipient mail servers as they distribute a large image through to all list members. >?Resizing images is easy. Search for 'image resizing'. There are many free software apps / programs and online websites that do image resizing. Some will also allow cropping of images to remove unwanted parts of images. ExiMod Thanks ExiMod! I found a technique that works if you want to screen snap something: expand way out, screen snap, paste in, then crop the image down to just the fraction you want to show. Then if you want, you can stretch the image back out, which doesn?t increase the number of pixels (so it might be grainy (but that?s OK in many cases.)) Phone camera stuff can be done that way too: take a photo, trim out 90%, stretch the remaining part. Lotta times that will get it below 150k. Posting a photo directly has its advantages. For instance, that smoke map link I posted earlier changes every day. So the realtime image of today tells a story which will be gone Wednesday (assuming new fires don?t start.) spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 16:19:33 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:19:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] air down there In-Reply-To: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> References: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 6:11 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Has anyone heard from Keith? It was about Tuesday since I last saw a post > from him. > Yeah, I heard from him yesterday. He was alive and well enough to write coherently. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 16:40:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:40:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] air down there In-Reply-To: References: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <009101d68923$60d104e0$22730ea0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] air down there On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 6:11 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: Has anyone heard from Keith? It was about Tuesday since I last saw a post from him. >?Yeah, I heard from him yesterday. He was alive and well enough to write coherently. OK cool thanks. I talked to Jeff Davis Wednesday on Zoom. A post from him Thursday didn?t even mention the smoke. He has enough BitCoin to set up a hyper-hepa if he needs it. Who else do we know on the west coast? Everybody breathing OK? I am looking that the Interstate 5 road cams. Looks smokey but breathable up that way (Oregon.) I have friends who live near this. No better there than here: Might as well stay home. Part of this might be fog. They say 70% humidity, but I don?t know how that works if it had been down to the dew point earlier and is working back up. Can someone arrange for me to have another misspent youth so I can learn all this stuff by the time I get this age? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 13235 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 16:53:47 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:53:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] air down there In-Reply-To: <009101d68923$60d104e0$22730ea0$@rainier66.com> References: <00a601d68906$167f0300$437d0900$@rainier66.com> <009101d68923$60d104e0$22730ea0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00a401d68925$48eec090$dacc41b0$@rainier66.com> Owwwww, damn: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8721227/West-Coast-wildfire-death-toll-rises-23-500-000-Oregon-residents-forced-evacuate.html spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 12 19:08:44 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:08:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Many Worlds wins another one Message-ID: Roger Penrose had proposed a rival to Everett's Many Worlds as an Interpretation of quantum mechanics. In his Idea the Quantum Wave Function really does physically collapse and timing of the collapse depends on a random element and on gravity and thus on the mass density of particles in superposition; the more massive the object the shorter the time before the wave collapses and Penrose said that was the reason our everyday macro world appears to follow classical physics to an excellent approximation. However in the September 7 2020 issue of the journal Nature Physics there is a report of an experiment done in a laboratory deep under the GranSasso Mountain in Italy that produced results that are NOT compatible with Penrose's theory. Underground test of gravity-related wave function collapse Test of wave function collapse suggests gravity is not the answer John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Sat Sep 12 19:23:19 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:23:19 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Many Worlds wins another one In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <9955C3BE-4F0A-4A4B-A66A-4235E5D37CFB@alumni.virginia.edu> I always favored Penrose?s view on this. I?ll have to check this out. Thanks! > On Sep 12, 2020, at 3:09 PM, John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? > Roger Penrose had proposed a rival to Everett's Many Worlds as an Interpretation of quantum mechanics. In his Idea the Quantum Wave Function really does physically collapse and timing of the collapse depends on a random element and on gravity and thus on the mass density of particles in superposition; the more massive the object the shorter the time before the wave collapses and Penrose said that was the reason our everyday macro world appears to follow classical physics to an excellent approximation. However in the September 7 2020 issue of the journal Nature Physics there is a report of an experiment done in a laboratory deep under the GranSasso Mountain in Italy that produced results that are NOT compatible with Penrose's theory. > > Underground test of gravity-related wave function collapse > > Test of wave function collapse suggests gravity is not the answer > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 12 22:56:39 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 15:56:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] we're unhealthy again! Message-ID: <004701d68957$fa065f50$ee131df0$@rainier66.com> Woohooo, excellent! We are back up to unhealthy today, after two days of very unhealthy. I mighta missed it, but I don't think we ever did hit hazardous. Unhealthy we can do, no problem. Hell my diet is unhealthy, and that isn't likely to clear up anytime soon. Let's hope for the best. Good thing we chose to not bug out. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sun Sep 13 04:34:48 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:34:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds Message-ID: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting John Clark: > On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 11:53 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > * > What you are saying is classically correct, but at a quantum level >> you have a mathematical object i.e. information,* > > > And that information says one observer will see the electron go left for no > apparent reason and another observer will see the electron go right for no > apparent reason. But in reality the reason is that everything that can > happen will happen. I don't disagree, but such a thing requires either the lavish extravagance of infinity or some nigh-magical FTL book-keeping. Local hidden variables have been largely ruled out by experiment but perhaps global hidden variables exist. > *> Everett's theory, there is only ONE monolithic wave function, a >> universal one.* >> > > I know, that's why Everett's theory is a favorite among cosmologists, but > what I don't know is why you think the quantum Zeno effect Is evidence that > this is untrue. I did but I found your explanation for how it needn't be rather compelling. I buy your explanation especially because it leaves freedom of choice intact even though it requires that all the different versions of an observer to make every possible choice as well. The only way that the conscious choices of all the alternate versions of the observers could encompass every possible choice available to them is if their consciousnesses were also terms of the universal wave function interfering with one another. In other words it would require consciousness to be a quantum phenomena. How else could all the different John Clarks be expected to obey quantum unitarity and choose differently in different branches? >> *> All actual computers that have been constructed thus far have >> been finite state machines approximating a Turing machines and not >> actual Turing machines which are purely abstract mathematical ideals that >> have infinite tape i.e. unlimited memory or hard drive space.* > > > That is incorrect. All Turing Machines that you see that are still working > on a problem have only used a finite amount of tape, and all Turing > Machines that have actually produced an answer have only used a finite > amount of tape to produce that answer. Yes, but Turing also proved there is no way to tell if a Turing machine ever halts with output except to wait and see. A Turing machine that never halts must have infinite tape to compute forever. In any case, why believe me when you can get it directly from the source. Several times in his paper linked to below, Alan Turing speaks of his machine outputting an infinite string of zeros. Such is only possible if it it had an infinite amount of tape with which to output an infinite string of zeros. https://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/Turing_Paper_1936.pdf > Turing Machines have unlimited > memory but that's not the same thing as infinite memory, it just means when > you start to run out of tape you need to add some more tape if you want any > hope of ever getting an answer. If you have to keep adding tape forever > then the function is uncomputable, the Busy Beaver function for example is > not computable. The first four Busy Beaver numbers have been computed, they > are 1, 6, 21, and 107, the fifth is suspected by some of being 47,176,870 > but that has not been proven and may never be proven. It has been proven > that the 748'th Busy Beaver number, although well-defined and finite, is > not computable, if God exists even He doesn't know what the 748'th Busy > Beaver number is, He may not even know for sure what the fifth Busy Beaver > number is. There is only a countable infinity of computable numbers while there are an uncountable infinity of real numbers and and almost all real numbers are uncomputable. The busy beaver numbers are not special in that regard. But their epistemic existence does make it less likely that the universe is a Turing machine even with infinite tape. Of course if the continuum i.e. aleph-1 ontologically exists as a physical entity, then uncomputable numbers could be physically manifest without actually ever needing to be computed. Just like the hypotenuse of the unit square ontologically exists even though its length cannot be computed in finite time. >> *Why do you think general relativity can't be true at Planck scales?* > > > Nobody thinks General Relativity can be true with the Planck scale, if you > try to calculate things at that scale you always get the same answers, > infinite energy, infinite density, infinite curvature, infinite momentum > ,,,, that's useless. That's why we need a quantum theory of gravity. > Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are our two best physical > theories, One does a good job explaining the weak and strong nuclear forces > and electromagnetism, and the other does a good job explaining gravity, but > they are incompatible, they don't play nice with each other. If quantum events at the Planck scale are constantly creating new universes with alternate histories, then maybe the infinities one calculates at the Planck scale are in fact what is actually physically manifesting. > >> *> This demonstrates that to a certain extent that we can choose the >> Everett branch we find ourselves in. That sounds like free will to me,* > > The scientists either chose to perform the experiment for a reason in which > case they're cuckoo clocks, or they decided to perform the experiment for > no reason in which case they are roulette wheels. I don't like this analogy of yours for several reasons. First of all, cuckoo clocks operate with a mechanism that follows simple direct cause and effect. Cuckoo clocks don't actually make decisions; they simply repeat the exact same actions over and over in a periodic fashion until they run out of energy. Secondly roulette wheels are deterministically chaotic but not actually random. That is to say that the ball settles on a number for a long chain of reasons, causes, and effects and that the earlier reasons are given greater weight as to outcome than the later ones. Intelligent agents, those with the ability to make decisions and presumably having a will that is more or less free, are more like thermostats or computers. They are able to make decisions based on abstract information such that cause and effect are disconnected from each other allowing for indirect and thereby intentional causation. In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately. So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could never directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel. But in a thermostat, the drop in temperature is abstracted to change the shape of a sensor which activates a burner to burn fuel and provide heat. Of course, things that are truly random cannot be said to actually make decisions which require reasons even if they are abstract, indirect, or obscure. Stuart LaForge From giulio at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 05:59:34 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 07:59:34 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Many Worlds wins another one In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: "Although Penrose praises the new work, he thinks it?s not really possible to test his version of the model. He says he was never comfortable with particle swerves, because they might cause the universe to gain or lose energy, violating a basic principle of physics. He has spent the pandemic lockdown creating a new and improved model. ?It doesn?t produce a heating or radiation," he says. In that case, gravity might be causing collapse, yet hiding its tracks. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/one-quantum-physics-greatest-paradoxes-may-have-lost-its-leading-explanation On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 9:10 PM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > > Roger Penrose had proposed a rival to Everett's Many Worlds as an Interpretation of quantum mechanics. In his Idea the Quantum Wave Function really does physically collapse and timing of the collapse depends on a random element and on gravity and thus on the mass density of particles in superposition; the more massive the object the shorter the time before the wave collapses and Penrose said that was the reason our everyday macro world appears to follow classical physics to an excellent approximation. However in the September 7 2020 issue of the journal Nature Physics there is a report of an experiment done in a laboratory deep under the GranSasso Mountain in Italy that produced results that are NOT compatible with Penrose's theory. > > Underground test of gravity-related wave function collapse > > Test of wave function collapse suggests gravity is not the answer > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 13:32:14 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:32:14 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 12:37 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > one observer will see the electron go left for no apparent reason and >> another observer will see the electron go right for no apparent reason. >> But in reality the reason is that everything that can happen will happen. > > > * > I don't disagree, but such a thing requires either the > lavish extravagance of infinity or some nigh-magical FTL book-keeping.* All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves as Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. That's it. > > * > it would require consciousness to be a quantum phenomena. How else > could all the different John Clarks be expected to obey quantum unitarity > and choose differently in different branches?* Maybe. I am most certainly not saying consciousness does not exist, in fact the thing that I am most certain of is that at least one consciousness does exist, and probably many billions more. What I'm saying is that "free will" is like a burp, it's not true and it is not false either, it's just a burp. "Free will" doesn't exist and "free will" doesn't not exist either, and the only thing that can simultaneously exist and not exist is gibberish. So I have to ask, why did you change the title of this thread to something nonsensical like "Free will"? > > *Turing also proved there is no way to tell if a Turing machine ever > halts with output except to wait and see* True, and that wait may never end (or it might end in the next two seconds), so the process of adding more tape may never end too, but after any finite amount of time the machine will have only used a finite amount of tape. > *except to wait and see. A Turing machine that never halts must have > infinite tape to compute forever.* > You may someday look upon a Turing Machine that will never halt, but no human being will ever look upon a Turing Machine that has never halted. Every Turing Machine ever observed or will ever be observed will have only used a finite amount of tape, and every Turing Machine that has been successful and halted and actually produced an answer to the question posed has only used a finite amount of tape to produce that answer. >> the Busy Beaver function for example is not computable. The first four >> Busy Beaver numbers have been computed, they are 1, 6, 21, and 107, the >> fifth is suspected by some of being 47,176,870 but that has not been >> proven and may never be proven. It has been proven that the 748'th Busy >> Beaver number, although well-defined and finite, is not computable, if God >> exists even He doesn't know what the 748'th Busy Beaver number is, He >> may not even know for sure what the fifth Busy Beaver number is. There >> is only a countable infinity of computable numbers while there are an >> uncountable infinity of real numbers and and almost all real numbers are >> uncomputable. > > > *The busy beaver numbers are not special in that regard.* All the Busy Beaver numbers are well defined and finite and some of them I'm not even particularly large, the first 4 are not large and they can and have been computed, but that might be that only the first 4 that can be computed, or maybe a few more can be, nobody knows. It wouldn't surprise me very much if 47,176,870 really is the fifth busy Beaver Number but it can never be computed or proven to be so, if so then 47,176,870 being a Busy Beaver number would be a effect without a cause, that is to say a brute fact, a brute fact that human beings or even God will never know. *> **But their epistemic existence does make it less likely that the > universe is a Turing machine even with infinite tape.* > I don't see why. A Turing Machine is needed to even define a Busy Beaver number. But the fact that a physical Turing Machine can't produce a Busy Beaver number just means the physical universe does not need to know what the 748'th Busy Beaver number is for it to operate. > *Of course if the continuum i.e. aleph-1 ontologically exists as a > physical entity, * That is a very big if! It could be that the Real Numbers are not really real because there are only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe and physics has never discovered a googolplex number of anything much less a aleph-0 or aleph-1 infinite number of them. > *then uncomputable numbers could be physically manifest* If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes should see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical universe, but so far there is no such evidence. > > *without actually ever needing to be computed. Just like the hypotenuse > of the unit square ontologically exists even though its length cannot be > computed in finite time.* I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to say the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an approximation of the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it would be much more accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square is just an approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical cardboard square. Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a computer model of a hurricane is much simpler than a real physical hurricane. > >> Nobody thinks General Relativity can be true with the Planck scale, if >> you >> try to calculate things at that scale you always get the same answers, >> infinite energy, infinite density, infinite curvature, infinite momentum >> ,,,, that's useless. That's why we need a quantum theory of gravity. >> Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are our two best physical >> theories, One does a good job explaining the weak and strong nuclear >forcesand >> electromagnetism, and the other does a good job explaining gravity, but they >> are incompatible, they don't play nice with each other. > > > > * > If quantum events at the Planck scale are constantly creating > new universes with alternate histories, then maybe the infinities > one calculates at the Planck scale are in fact what is actually > physically manifesting.* Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when they start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do that. The Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being useful, and the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General Relativity stops being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller than the Planck scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. > >> The scientists either chose to perform the experiment for a reason in > which case they're cuckoo clocks, or they decided to perform the > experiment for no reason in which case they are roulette wheels. > > * > I don't like this analogy of yours for several reasons. First of > all, cuckoo clocks operate with a mechanism that follows simple > direct cause and effect.* People are more complex than cuckoo clocks but that's a difference in degree not of kind. One cause and one effect can be simple but 10^23 Interacting causes and 10^23 effects is not simple, but both either do things for a reason or they don't do things for a reason. >*Cuckoo clocks don't actually make decisions;* What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in which case we call it a irrational decision. > *> they simply repeat the exact same actions over and over in a > periodic fashion until they run out of energy.* Some Turing Machines behave that way, some do not, all of them are deterministic. > *> Secondly roulette wheels are deterministically chaotic but not actually > random.* That's a pretty weak objection. If you don't like roulette wheels then replace them with the decay of a Uranium or Potassium 40 nucleus. * > Intelligent agents, those with the ability to make decisions* Decisions? Please strip that word down to its simplest essentials and tell me what it means. > *and presumably having a will that is more or less free,* Free from what, outside influence? If a person's behavior was not influenced by light reflecting off of a brick wall it will most certainly be influenced when his head comes into contact with that wall. *> In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.* And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. And round and round we go. > *So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could > never directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a battery, a thermostat. and a match head. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 13:40:55 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:40:55 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Many Worlds wins another one In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 2:02 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *"Although Penrose praises the new work, he thinks it?s not really* *possible > to test his version of the model.* [...] * He has spent the pandemic > lockdown creating a new and* *improved model. ?It doesn?t produce a > heating or radiation,"* It's usually a bad sign when the creator of a theory starts adding epicycles and other complications to his previous simpler theory when experiments show that the simpler unmodified theory just doesn't work. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 14:01:38 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:01:38 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: There is nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in which case we call it a irrational decision. John Please define 'reason'. You certainly cannot mean without a cause, so you must mean it's a purely emotional decision, and I don't think those exist. We have to translate a physiological response into actions by voluntary muscles, such as by saying words or signing something, which are conscious things. It also depends on what you call a 'decision'. Is a reflex drawing away from a fire a decision? Are autonomic functions decisions? I reckon not. You? If a person does something that is counter to his reasoning, it's fair to call it an irrational decision, but that doesn't mean at all that it's a bad thing. It's the elephant overruling the rider, to use Haidt's metaphor (is that right? - Haidt?) Maybe better: nonrational. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:35 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 12:37 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > one observer will see the electron go left for no apparent reason and >>> another observer will see the electron go right for no apparent reason. >>> But in reality the reason is that everything that can happen will >>> happen. >> >> >> * > I don't disagree, but such a thing requires either the >> lavish extravagance of infinity or some nigh-magical FTL book-keeping.* > > > All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves as > Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. > That's it. > > >> >> * > it would require consciousness to be a quantum phenomena. How else >> could all the different John Clarks be expected to obey quantum unitarity >> and choose differently in different branches?* > > > Maybe. I am most certainly not saying consciousness does not exist, in > fact the thing that I am most certain of is that at least one consciousness > does exist, and probably many billions more. What I'm saying is that "free > will" is like a burp, it's not true and it is not false either, it's just a > burp. "Free will" doesn't exist and "free will" doesn't not exist either, > and the only thing that can simultaneously exist and not exist is > gibberish. So I have to ask, why did you change the title of this thread to > something nonsensical like "Free will"? > >> > *Turing also proved there is no way to tell if a Turing machine ever >> halts with output except to wait and see* > > > True, and that wait may never end (or it might end in the next two > seconds), so the process of adding more tape may never end too, but after > any finite amount of time the machine will have only used a finite amount > of tape. > > > *except to wait and see. A Turing machine that never halts must have >> infinite tape to compute forever.* >> > > You may someday look upon a Turing Machine that will never halt, but no > human being will ever look upon a Turing Machine that has never halted. > Every Turing Machine ever observed or will ever be observed will have only > used a finite amount of tape, and every Turing Machine that has been > successful and halted and actually produced an answer to the question posed > has only used a finite amount of tape to produce that answer. > > >> the Busy Beaver function for example is not computable. The first four >>> Busy Beaver numbers have been computed, they are 1, 6, 21, and 107, the >>> fifth is suspected by some of being 47,176,870 but that has not been >>> proven and may never be proven. It has been proven that the 748'th Busy >>> Beaver number, although well-defined and finite, is not computable, if God >>> exists even He doesn't know what the 748'th Busy Beaver number is, He >>> may not even know for sure what the fifth Busy Beaver number is. There >>> is only a countable infinity of computable numbers while there are an >>> uncountable infinity of real numbers and and almost all real numbers are >>> uncomputable. >> >> > > *The busy beaver numbers are not special in that regard.* > > > All the Busy Beaver numbers are well defined and finite and some of them > I'm not even particularly large, the first 4 are not large and they can and > have been computed, but that might be that only the first 4 that can be > computed, or maybe a few more can be, nobody knows. It wouldn't surprise me > very much if 47,176,870 really is the fifth busy Beaver Number but it can > never be computed or proven to be so, if so then 47,176,870 being a Busy > Beaver number would be a effect without a cause, that is to say a brute > fact, a brute fact that human beings or even God will never know. > > *> **But their epistemic existence does make it less likely that the >> universe is a Turing machine even with infinite tape.* >> > > I don't see why. A Turing Machine is needed to even define a Busy Beaver > number. But the fact that a physical Turing Machine can't produce a Busy > Beaver number just means the physical universe does not need to know what > the 748'th Busy Beaver number is for it to operate. > > > *Of course if the continuum i.e. aleph-1 ontologically exists as a >> physical entity, * > > > That is a very big if! It could be that the Real Numbers are not really > real because there are only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe > and physics has never discovered a googolplex number of anything much less > a aleph-0 or aleph-1 infinite number of them. > > > *then uncomputable numbers could be physically manifest* > > > If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes > should see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical > universe, but so far there is no such evidence. > > > >> *without actually ever needing to be computed. Just like the hypotenuse >> of the unit square ontologically exists even though its length cannot be >> computed in finite time.* > > > I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to say > the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an approximation of > the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it would be much more > accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square is just an > approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical cardboard square. > Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a computer model of a > hurricane is much simpler than a real physical hurricane. > > >> >> Nobody thinks General Relativity can be true with the Planck scale, >>> if you >>> try to calculate things at that scale you always get the same answers, >>> infinite energy, infinite density, infinite curvature, infinite momentum >>> ,,,, that's useless. That's why we need a quantum theory of gravity. >>> Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are our two best physical >>> theories, One does a good job explaining the weak and strong nuclear >forcesand >>> electromagnetism, and the other does a good job explaining gravity, but they >>> are incompatible, they don't play nice with each other. >> >> >> >> * > If quantum events at the Planck scale are constantly creating >> new universes with alternate histories, then maybe the infinities >> one calculates at the Planck scale are in fact what is actually >> physically manifesting.* > > > Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when > they start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do > that. The Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being > useful, and the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General > Relativity stops being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller > than the Planck scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. > > >> >> The scientists either chose to perform the experiment for a reason in >> which case they're cuckoo clocks, or they decided to perform the >> experiment for no reason in which case they are roulette wheels. >> >> * > I don't like this analogy of yours for several reasons. First of >> all, cuckoo clocks operate with a mechanism that follows simple >> direct cause and effect.* > > > People are more complex than cuckoo clocks but that's a difference in > degree not of kind. One cause and one effect can be simple but 10^23 > Interacting causes and 10^23 effects is not simple, but both either do > things for a reason or they don't do things for a reason. > > >*Cuckoo clocks don't actually make decisions;* > > > What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is > nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in > which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in > which case we call it a irrational decision. > > >> *> they simply repeat the exact same actions over and over in a >> periodic fashion until they run out of energy.* > > > Some Turing Machines behave that way, some do not, all of them are > deterministic. > > >> *> Secondly roulette wheels are deterministically chaotic but not >> actually random.* > > > That's a pretty weak objection. If you don't like roulette wheels then > replace them with the decay of a Uranium or Potassium 40 nucleus. > > * > Intelligent agents, those with the ability to make decisions* > > > Decisions? Please strip that word down to its simplest essentials and > tell me what it means. > > > *and presumably having a will that is more or less free,* > > > Free from what, outside influence? If a person's behavior was not > influenced by light reflecting off of a brick wall it will most certainly > be influenced when his head comes into contact with that wall. > > *> In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.* > > > And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. And > round and round we go. > > > *So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could >> never directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* > > > Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a battery, a > thermostat. and a match head. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 14:51:46 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 07:51:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] An Army of Microscopic Robots Is Ready to Patrol Your Body In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Twenty years further. On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 5:07 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > How far do you think we will be in twenty years time? > > On Sat, Sep 12, 2020 at 3:14 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Well yeah. Just stating so we know how far this has already gotten. >> >> On Fri, Sep 11, 2020 at 11:17 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> Adrian Tymes wrote: >>> "These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that >>> is, thousands of nanometers - across." >>> >>> Well, you gotta start somewhere! Lol Eventually, scientists and >>> engineers will shrink them down to proper Drexlerian proportions... >>> >>> John >>> >>> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 11:31 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> These robots are apparently on the tens of micrometers (microns) - that >>>> is, thousands of nanometers - across. >>>> >>>> On Wed, Sep 9, 2020 at 2:06 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>>> >>>>> "If I were to picture futuristic bots that could revolutionize both >>>>> microrobotics and medicine, a Pop-Tart with four squiggly legs would not be >>>>> on top of my list. >>>>> >>>>> I was so wrong. >>>>> >>>>> Last week, Drs. Marc Miskin*, Itai Cohen, and Paul McEuen at Cornell >>>>> University spearheaded a collaboration >>>>> that tackled one >>>>> of the most pressing problems in microrobotics?getting those robots to move >>>>> in a controllable manner. They graced us with an army of Pop-Tart-shaped >>>>> microbots with seriously tricked-out actuators, or motors that allow a >>>>> robot to move. In this case, the actuators make up the robot?s legs. >>>>> >>>>> Each smaller than the width of a human hair, the bots have a blocky >>>>> body equipped with solar cells and two pairs of platinum legs, which can be >>>>> independently triggered to flex using precise laser zaps. The control is so >>>>> accurate that the team was able to simultaneously jigger the legs of a >>>>> battalion of microbots in a coordinated ?march.? >>>>> >>>>> If you?re not impressed yet, there?s more: unlike previous microbots >>>>> that relied on magnetism to move, these are basically miniaturized robots. >>>>> Like BigDog , they have >>>>> mechanical legs that are controlled with silicon-based electronic >>>>> components. This means that it?s possible to manufacture the bots en masse >>>>> using decades of nanofabrication experience, similar to how we currently >>>>> make computer chips >>>>> >>>>> . >>>>> >>>>> Because the robots? ?brains? are conventional and based on classical >>>>> electronic circuits, it also means that they can be more easily integrated >>>>> with existing logic circuits to engineer even ?smarter? next generations >>>>> that respond to more complex commands. >>>>> >>>>> ?[The authors] have used a fresh design concept for their >>>>> microrobots,? wrote >>>>> Drs. Allan >>>>> Brooks and Michael Strano at MIT in an accompanying piece of the paper. >>>>> ?Because the actuators can be operated by the low-power electric currents >>>>> that typically flow through electronic circuits, sensors and logic >>>>> components could be seamlessly integrated with the actuators ?This opens >>>>> the doors for the last 50 years of micro-electronics research to be >>>>> incorporated into robots >>>>> so small they can?t be seen by the human eye.?" >>>>> >>>>> [image: nano robo.jpg] >>>>> I look forward to hearing a comment about this development by Eric >>>>> Drexler... >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/08/an-army-of-microscopic-robots-is-ready-to-patrol-your-body/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: nano robo.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 11249 bytes Desc: not available URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 14:58:07 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 10:58:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 10:03 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> There is nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a >> reason in which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for >> no reason in which case we call it a irrational decision. John > > *> Please define 'reason'. * > Please define "define". > > You certainly cannot mean without a cause, > You are correct I don't mean that. Doing something without a reason, without a cause, would be unreasonable. It would be random. > > It also depends on what you call a 'decision'. > You're asking the wrong person, I generally don't use the word "decision" in philosophical conversations, it's just not very useful in that context. I will say there was either a reason you made the decision you did, or there was not a reason for you making the decision you did. You may have made the wrong decision because you had incorrect information, but it was still made for a reason so you could say it was still rational, but if you made the decision for no reason at all then it was irrational. > > *Is a reflex drawing away from a fire a decision? Are > autonomic functions decisions? I reckon not. You? * > I don't much care because this is just an argument over the meanings of words, it has no philosophical substance. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 15:41:46 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 10:41:46 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: I don't much care because this is just an argument over the meanings of words, it has no philosophical substance. John K Clark That is the most laugh out loud funny thing I have ever read in this group, and the most wrong. There is nothing more important than the definition of words, because without precise ones we cannot communicate. No science. No novels. No "What's for breakfast?" C'mon John, take it seriously. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 10:00 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 10:03 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >> There is nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for >>> a reason in which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made >>> for no reason in which case we call it a irrational decision. John >> >> > > *> Please define 'reason'. * >> > > Please define "define". > > >> > You certainly cannot mean without a cause, >> > > You are correct I don't mean that. Doing something without a reason, > without a cause, would be unreasonable. It would be random. > > >> > It also depends on what you call a 'decision'. >> > > You're asking the wrong person, I generally don't use the word "decision" > in philosophical conversations, it's just not very useful in that context. > I will say there was either a reason you made the decision you did, or > there was not a reason for you making the decision you did. You may have > made the wrong decision because you had incorrect information, but it was > still made for a reason so you could say it was still rational, but if you > made the decision for no reason at all then it was irrational. > > >> > *Is a reflex drawing away from a fire a decision? Are >> autonomic functions decisions? I reckon not. You? * >> > > I don't much care because this is just an argument over the meanings of > words, it has no philosophical substance. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 13 17:18:13 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 10:18:13 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change Message-ID: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> What is the most change-averse institutions in modern society? John Burch Society? OK sure but mainstream. Presbyterian church? Hmmm. warmer but still not really mainstream and you might be surprised on their attitude toward change. Imagine setting up a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being most change-averse and then multiplying by the order of magnitude of people who are in some way involved in that. So. Burch Society is about a 3: a few thousand people take that seriously, and Presbyterian, a 5? OK then. Imagine your change-averse times numbers of people involved in some way, and think of who ranks up near the top of that scale. To simplify matters, you can work with just your own country or subset of humanity where you know the rules. I will focus on USA, having no expertise outside (haven't been there or done that (hope to someday (but won't get on a plane or ship (unless they carry me aboard in a wooden box.)))) OK, see the game? Number of people (OOM) times change aversity. My highest ranking institution is. Public education in general, the university system in particular. The number of people involved in that is in about the 8 range, with a score I estimated for aversion to change around at least 8 or 9, so we are way up in the 60 to 70 zone with the product. Commentary to follow, but I want to read what you have to say first. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 17:48:15 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 12:48:15 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: >From here it looks like the Southern Baptist Church would take the honors: dogma is set in stone; lots of members. Take away "in Adam's fall we sinned all" and the whole thing comes down flat. As for colleges I'd say it depends on what department you are talking about. Art, for instance. Even thinking about art is art, so they are wide open. Music accepts total silence as music (Cage). Sciences are flexible if they are following the data well. Psy. too. Sociology is hopeless 10 until they give way on genetics (small numbers though, since some colleges are eliminating the department). Education changes their dogma constantly, always for the wrong reasons, but at least you can say they are flexible. English I have not kept up with, though they too are apt to embrace new and wild and wooly theories, only to be dumped after a few thousands get tenure for papers written on the new theory. Part of the English dept. is in favor of words meaning whatever people want them to mean, and the others what they used to mean. History I have no idea. So you see, I have little experience outside the ivory tower. I am anxious to see what people think about economics. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 12:20 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > What is the most change-averse institutions in modern society? John Burch > Society? OK sure but mainstream. Presbyterian church? Hmmm? warmer but > still not really mainstream and you might be surprised on their attitude > toward change. > > > > Imagine setting up a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being most change-averse > and then multiplying by the order of magnitude of people who are in some > way involved in that. So? Burch Society is about a 3: a few thousand > people take that seriously, and Presbyterian, a 5? OK then. > > > > Imagine your change-averse times numbers of people involved in some way, > and think of who ranks up near the top of that scale. > > > > To simplify matters, you can work with just your own country or subset of > humanity where you know the rules. I will focus on USA, having no > expertise outside (haven?t been there or done that (hope to someday (but > won?t get on a plane or ship (unless they carry me aboard in a wooden > box.)))) > > > > OK, see the game? Number of people (OOM) times change aversity. > > > > My highest ranking institution is? > > > > Public education in general, the university system in particular. The > number of people involved in that is in about the 8 range, with a score I > estimated for aversion to change around at least 8 or 9, so we are way up > in the 60 to 70 zone with the product. > > > > Commentary to follow, but I want to read what you have to say first. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 18:47:44 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:47:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 11:44 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > There is nothing more important than the definition of words, because > without precise ones we cannot communicate. Nonsense! Children don't learn to speak from definitions, and where do you think lexicographers got the information to write the definitions in their Dictionary? There is only one place they could have gotten it, from examples. Most people don't have a dictionary in their house and haven't used one since their fifth grade teacher made them, but they nevertheless manage to communicate just fine. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 18:50:28 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 18:50:28 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: thOn Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 5:20 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > What is the most change-averse institutions in modern society? John Burch Society? OK sure but mainstream. Presbyterian church? Hmmm? warmer but still not really mainstream and you might be surprised on their attitude toward change. > > Imagine setting up a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being most change-averse and then multiplying by the order of magnitude of people who are in some way involved in that. So? Burch Society is about a 3: a few thousand people take that seriously, and Presbyterian, a 5? OK then. > > Imagine your change-averse times numbers of people involved in some way, and think of who ranks up near the top of that scale. > > To simplify matters, you can work with just your own country or subset of humanity where you know the rules. I will focus on USA, having no expertise outside (haven?t been there or done that (hope to someday (but won?t get on a plane or ship (unless they carry me aboard in a wooden box.)))) > > OK, see the game? Number of people (OOM) times change aversity. > > My highest ranking institution is? > > Public education in general, the university system in particular. The number of people involved in that is in about the 8 range, with a score I estimated for aversion to change around at least 8 or 9, so we are way up in the 60 to 70 zone with the product. > > Commentary to follow, but I want to read what you have to say first. > > spike Not that I doubt your conclusion, but I'd like to see how you're measuring change here. One problem I do see here is public education has only existed a short time -- basically, in the US since the late 19th century and that's a little deceptive since it wasn't that centralized back then and mostly became mandatory in the 1930s. So in terms of long-term duration, it wouldn't have an institution like, say, the Church of England or the Roman Catholic Church beat. Also, if you read Bryan Caplan's book on education, I'd also wonder if it matters. One of his theses is that most education is simply forgotten or has little impact once the degree is achieved. This reminds me of how many people approach learning and education: memorizing trivia. As one person online quipped, 'Why do we need to know the names of Columbus's ships? Who gives a fuck?' :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 18:57:01 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 18:57:01 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 5:50 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > From here it looks like the Southern Baptist Church would take the honors: dogma is set in stone; lots of members. Take away "in Adam's fall we sinned all" and the whole thing comes down flat. > > As for colleges I'd say it depends on what department you are talking about. Art, for instance. Even thinking about art is art, so they are wide open. Music accepts total silence as music (Cage). Sciences are flexible if they are following the data well. Psy. too. Sociology is hopeless 10 until they give way on genetics (small numbers though, since some colleges are eliminating the department). Education changes their dogma constantly, always for the wrong reasons, but at least you can say they are flexible. English I have not kept up with, though they too are apt to embrace new and wild and wooly theories, only to be dumped after a few thousands get tenure for papers written on the new theory. Part of the English dept. is in favor of words meaning whatever people want them to mean, and the others what they used to mean. History I have no idea. > > So you see, I have little experience outside the ivory tower. I am anxious to see what people think about economics. bill w There's also the issue that many people see higher education, especially from an ideological perspective, as very influential. Many tend to think ideologues inside the university somehow control society -- much more so than political or corporate elites. In other words, good wholesome American kids go to uni and get brainwashed into American-bashing, man-hating, gender-denying ideologies. The mantra today is, of course, 'cultural Marxism,' which tends to mean anything the critic of higher education wants it to mean. To me, this seems so out of touch with the actual influence of the schools. In fact, the ideological influence seems to go the other way: students tend to not experience as much ideological change in the schools -- at least if the data is correct here. Peers and the zeitgeist have far more influence. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 19:36:23 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 19:36:23 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 6:50 PM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 11:44 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > >> > There is nothing more important than the definition of words, because without precise ones we cannot communicate. > > > Nonsense! Children don't learn to speak from definitions, and where do you think lexicographers got the information to write the definitions in their Dictionary? There is only one place they could have gotten it, from examples. Most people don't have a dictionary in their house and haven't used one since their fifth grade teacher made them, but they nevertheless manage to communicate just fine. > > John K Clark I would add too that lexicographers are going by usage, thus definitions for words can change over time or from one lexicographer to the next. Stipulative definitions are a different story, though there the problem then becomes does the term and the intended use catch on. Typically, outside of small circles (or scholars, scientists, technicians, or some clique), any term with a stipulated definition will stray from that definition as it spreads. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 13 19:42:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 12:42:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> >...> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] jarring change On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 5:50 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > >>... From here it looks like the Southern Baptist Church would take the honors: dogma is set in stone... > >>... So you see, I have little experience outside the ivory tower. I am anxious to see what people think about economics. bill w >...There's also the issue that many people see higher education, especially from an ideological perspective, as very influential...To me, this seems so out of touch with the actual influence of the schools... Regards, Dan Thanks Dan and BillW for the thought-provoking comments. I will only deal with what I originally had in mind with the question (I have a lot more in mind now (but time is limited today.)) To me, the college professor with tenure on a nice campus is the greatest place to be in the world, for a hundred reasons: you get to stand in front of an attentive audience talking about stuff you know well, lots of attractive young people (which is a benefit even if you have nothing illegitimate in mind at all (and one would suppose even more a benefit if you do)) a nice, low-pressure interesting environment, fun activities everywhere; what better career is there? OK chief photographer at the Playboy Mansion, but other than that... college professor is the best you do for interesting pleasant careers. People who have it made know they have it made. They don't want things to change, and I understand. If I were smart enough to get into that job, I wouldn't want change either. I have a former college roommate who got his PhD from Purdue and has been a professor of engineering at our alma mater ever since, working his ass off for a pittance, and will flat out say it's the greatest life he could imagine and he is happier than a pig in slop. He means it and I believe him. Covid hands the university system a jarring change that none of them wanted, but I have known for a long time was going to happen eventually. I didn't foresee that it would happen as a result of an epidemic, but I shoulda: the man after whom I named my own son invented calculus while home on university lockdown because of a plague epidemic in London. Consider USC. The engineering training they dish out there is pretty similar at the undergrad level as it is at any state university (but costs a lotta lotta.) The degree is more valuable of course, with its prestige, but the actual education at either place (at undergrad level) is pretty similar. All engineering students hafta master a pretty similar set of skills. The USC education has additional benefits however. An engineering student can make contacts there with money people (the smart students and the rich students need each other.) Without that additional benefit... the USC education isn't worth the 75K a year. Students might as well sit out the plague semesters and take classes at the local state U. spike From avant at sollegro.com Sun Sep 13 19:45:59 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 12:45:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds Message-ID: <20200913124559.Horde.ki1A9kY9yH6vfb5g2JWmSOV@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting John Clark: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 12:37 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> one observer will see the electron go left for no apparent reason and >>> another observer will see the electron go right for no apparent reason. >>> But in reality the reason is that everything that can happen will happen. >> >> >> * > I don't disagree, but such a thing requires either the >> lavish extravagance of infinity or some nigh-magical FTL book-keeping.* > > > All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves as > Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. > That's it. But Schrodinger's equation is time-dependent so that would imply some sort of multiversal absolute time. Something that Einstein demonstrated was impossible. Didn't he? > Maybe. I am most certainly not saying consciousness does not exist, in fact > the thing that I am most certain of is that at least one consciousness does > exist, and probably many billions more. What I'm saying is that "free will" > is like a burp, it's not true and it is not false either, it's just a burp. > "Free will" doesn't exist and "free will" doesn't not exist either, and the > only thing that can simultaneously exist and not exist is gibberish. So I > have to ask, why did you change the title of this thread to something > nonsensical like "Free will"? I did not change the title; SR Ballard did. I however was trying to reconcile my own belief in my freedom to choose with what I know about MWI in response to Giulio's statement that MWI was incompatible with free will. Since Ballard's choice of title seemed as relevant to Giulio's ideas as to her own, I kept it. Your Everett-based explanation for how the quantum Zeno effect could operate in the absense of wavefunction collapse made me reconsider Giulio's point. If calling it "free will" bothers you, why not call it "agency" instead? I have to assume at some point in your life you did something that you perceived that your mind was responsible for having you do? Like perhaps replying to this email for example? What do you want to call that? Or do you not believe you have choices? Do you believe the future is already written? > All the Busy Beaver numbers are well defined and finite and some of them > I'm not even particularly large, the first 4 are not large and they can and > have been computed, but that might be that only the first 4 that can be > computed, or maybe a few more can be, nobody knows. It wouldn't surprise me > very much if 47,176,870 really is the fifth busy Beaver Number but it can > never be computed or proven to be so, if so then 47,176,870 being a Busy > Beaver number would be a effect without a cause, that is to say a brute > fact, a brute fact that human beings or even God will never know. Interestingly if Jason Resch is correct that all mathematical truths are physically manifest in some corner of the multiverse, then that would mean that Godel Incompleteness would also be manifest. That would imply the existence of all manner of physical effects without cause or "brute facts" as you put it. >> *Of course if the continuum i.e. aleph-1 ontologically exists as a >> physical entity, * > > > That is a very big if! It could be that the Real Numbers are not really > real because there are only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe > and physics has never discovered a googolplex number of anything much less > a aleph-0 or aleph-1 infinite number of them. Sure it has: The Hamiltonian for those 10^83 atoms has ((10^83)^2 - 10^83)/2 = 5*10^165 potential energy terms for those atoms, and the Hamiltonian was discovered by a physicist. Isn't the total energy of the set 10^83 atoms a thing unto itself? >> *then uncomputable numbers could be physically manifest* > > If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes > should see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical > universe, but so far there is no such evidence. Maybe the physical manifestation of uncomputable numbers are responsible for the huge number of paranormal experiences people have claimed to have had consistently over many centuries of recorded history. Stuff like UFOs, bigfoot, and ghosts not to mention Jesus on the way to Damascus? >> >> *without actually ever needing to be computed. Just like the hypotenuse >> of the unit square ontologically exists even though its length cannot be >> computed in finite time.* > > > I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to say > the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an approximation of > the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it would be much more > accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit square is just an > approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical cardboard square. > Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a computer model of a > hurricane is much simpler than a real physical hurricane. Mistake? Plato could have been right. Why would you use something so crude as a cardboard square to test something so precise? Why not use a laser, a beam-splitters, and mirrors i.e. an interferometer to put Pythagoras, and Plato, to the test? Of course the curved space of Earth's gravity well might skew results but results should none-the-less be informative. > Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when they > start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do that. The > Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being useful, and > the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General Relativity stops > being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller than the Planck > scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. I think that if two theories that have never been falsified both independently stop being useful in a place that cannot be observed, even in principle, then maybe it is a mistake to assume that anything goes on in that place at all. Perhaps it is not even a place. If one applies the Lorentzian transforms to the de Broglie waves of quantum particles crossing an event horizon of a black hole, then at the event horizon, their wavelength drops to zero, their position is precisely determined with respect to the black hole, and their energy and momentum consequently both become infinite and undefined. In other words, they cannot actually be said ever actually cross the horizon because once they reach it, the Heisenberg uncertainty of their momentum is maximal. They are going in every possible direction at every possible speed. All this is relative to the black hole, mind you and not to some outside observer who simply sees the in falling particle slow down, red shift its light, and freeze at the event horizon. Now you can change to Krustal coordinates or something to track the fall of SOMETHING into the black hole, but whatever it is, it is described by a separate wave function than what hit the event horizon so it cannot be said to be the same particle due to the No Cloning Theorem. My guess therefore is that it is the antimatter clone of whatever fell into the black hole. And if Feynman was right about antimatter particles being matter particles travelling backwards in time, then antimatter falling into a black hole should "feel" like matter being ejected from a white hole. >> * > I don't like this analogy of yours for several reasons. First of >> all, cuckoo clocks operate with a mechanism that follows simple >> direct cause and effect.* > > > People are more complex than cuckoo clocks but that's a difference in > degree not of kind. One cause and one effect can be simple but 10^23 > Interacting causes and 10^23 effects is not simple, but both either do > things for a reason or they don't do things for a reason. > >> *Cuckoo clocks don't actually make decisions;* > > > What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is > nothing mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in > which case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no > reason in which case we call it a irrational decision. Cuckoo clocks cannot split universes by chiming every possible hour at once for starters. If you are pushed and you fall down, you fell for a reason in that the push caused you to fall, but you did not make a rational choice to fall. If you are pushed and you windmill your arms and manage to keep your feet, you did make a rational choice not to fall. In other words, you successfully exercised agency. > >> *> they simply repeat the exact same actions over and over in a >> periodic fashion until they run out of energy.* > > > Some Turing Machines behave that way, some do not, all of them are > deterministic. I agree that agency is deterministic. By definition, it is you determining your own future to a certain extent. Unless you are a believer in predestined fate? > * > Intelligent agents, those with the ability to make decisions* > > > Decisions? Please strip that word down to its simplest essentials and tell > me what it means. The simplest way I can describe a decision is conditional causation. If input A, then output B. You are right, it is not at all mystical. Using a Turing machine as a cuckoo clock is a waste of this very property of Turing machines. > >> *and presumably having a will that is more or less free,* > > Free from what, outside influence? If a person's behavior was not > influenced by light reflecting off of a brick wall it will most certainly > be influenced when his head comes into contact with that wall. Outside influences is the whole point behind agency. If external influences were not important, then agency would never have evolved. Agency is what gives light rays reflecting from a wall to stop your forward momentum without themselves having sufficient momentum to stop you. > *> In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.* > > And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. And > round and round we go. Not quite. All agents have a purpose when making decisions, whether their own or another's. >> *So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could >> never directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* > > Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a battery, a > thermostat. and a match head. The unlikely confluence of all those components speaks of purpose and intent. Both hallmarks of agency. Stuart LaForge From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 19:55:52 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:55:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: if you read Bryan Caplan's book on education, I'd also wonder if it matters. One of his theses is that most education is simply forgotten or has little impact once the degree is achieved. This reminds me of how many people approach learning and education: memorizing trivia. Dan There are many areas, psych not one of them, that do require extensive rote memory, though not of trivia - anatomy for one; many science classes. But I am not a fan of rote memory, being poor at it. Would have flunked anatomy big time. But here's a couple of thoughts: things learned tend not to be forgotten. Oh if you give them their final from two years ago they probably will flunk it - some studies have shown that. But that's not the point: the point is that when they have to deal with the thing or process, it will come back to them when they re-read that material. (Thus the theory of open book tests.) Re-learning is far faster than learning. A learned person cannot just pull out of his head everything he knows. He takes a book off the shelf, reads a few pages, memories come back, and he can talk expertly about it, or do it if it's a process. The original learning was not wasted at all. To me, a lot of education is about learning how to learn. And what you have to learn in the future might not be anywhere near the same as what you learned in school, but the process of learning it is. Do not get me wrong. I am a strong critic of education at every level, and teaching trivia is a small part of that. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 1:56 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > thOn Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 5:20 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > What is the most change-averse institutions in modern society? John > Burch Society? OK sure but mainstream. Presbyterian church? Hmmm? warmer > but still not really mainstream and you might be surprised on their > attitude toward change. > > > > Imagine setting up a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being most > change-averse and then multiplying by the order of magnitude of people who > are in some way involved in that. So? Burch Society is about a 3: a few > thousand people take that seriously, and Presbyterian, a 5? OK then. > > > > Imagine your change-averse times numbers of people involved in some way, > and think of who ranks up near the top of that scale. > > > > To simplify matters, you can work with just your own country or subset > of humanity where you know the rules. I will focus on USA, having no > expertise outside (haven?t been there or done that (hope to someday (but > won?t get on a plane or ship (unless they carry me aboard in a wooden > box.)))) > > > > OK, see the game? Number of people (OOM) times change aversity. > > > > My highest ranking institution is? > > > > Public education in general, the university system in particular. The > number of people involved in that is in about the 8 range, with a score I > estimated for aversion to change around at least 8 or 9, so we are way up > in the 60 to 70 zone with the product. > > > > Commentary to follow, but I want to read what you have to say first. > > > > spike > > Not that I doubt your conclusion, but I'd like to see how you're > measuring change here. > > One problem I do see here is public education has only existed a short > time -- basically, in the US since the late 19th century and that's a > little deceptive since it wasn't that centralized back then and mostly > became mandatory in the 1930s. So in terms of long-term duration, it > wouldn't have an institution like, say, the Church of England or the > Roman Catholic Church beat. > > Also, if you read Bryan Caplan's book on education, I'd also wonder if > it matters. One of his theses is that most education is simply > forgotten or has little impact once the degree is achieved. > > This reminds me of how many people approach learning and education: > memorizing trivia. As one person online quipped, 'Why do we need to > know the names of Columbus's ships? Who gives a fuck?' :) > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 20:00:17 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:00:17 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Just a thought: at the expensive universities it would be worth it a lot more if the world's greatest professors would actually teach classes, even at the intro level. But no, TAs do all that or Assistant Profs. Are the greatest teachers at Cal Tech or Yale etc.? Very likely yes - but they don't teach - just a few, very few grad students, and those mostly because they help with the big prof's research program. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 2:43 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >...> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] jarring change > > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 5:50 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > >>... From here it looks like the Southern Baptist Church would take the > honors: dogma is set in stone... > > > >>... So you see, I have little experience outside the ivory tower. I am > anxious to see what people think about economics. bill w > > >...There's also the issue that many people see higher education, > especially > from an ideological perspective, as very influential...To me, this seems so > out of touch with the actual influence of the schools... > Regards, Dan > > > Thanks Dan and BillW for the thought-provoking comments. > > I will only deal with what I originally had in mind with the question (I > have a lot more in mind now (but time is limited today.)) > > To me, the college professor with tenure on a nice campus is the greatest > place to be in the world, for a hundred reasons: you get to stand in front > of an attentive audience talking about stuff you know well, lots of > attractive young people (which is a benefit even if you have nothing > illegitimate in mind at all (and one would suppose even more a benefit if > you do)) a nice, low-pressure interesting environment, fun activities > everywhere; what better career is there? OK chief photographer at the > Playboy Mansion, but other than that... college professor is the best you > do > for interesting pleasant careers. > > People who have it made know they have it made. They don't want things to > change, and I understand. If I were smart enough to get into that job, I > wouldn't want change either. I have a former college roommate who got his > PhD from Purdue and has been a professor of engineering at our alma mater > ever since, working his ass off for a pittance, and will flat out say it's > the greatest life he could imagine and he is happier than a pig in slop. > He > means it and I believe him. > > Covid hands the university system a jarring change that none of them > wanted, > but I have known for a long time was going to happen eventually. I didn't > foresee that it would happen as a result of an epidemic, but I shoulda: the > man after whom I named my own son invented calculus while home on > university > lockdown because of a plague epidemic in London. > > Consider USC. The engineering training they dish out there is pretty > similar at the undergrad level as it is at any state university (but costs > a > lotta lotta.) The degree is more valuable of course, with its prestige, > but > the actual education at either place (at undergrad level) is pretty > similar. > All engineering students hafta master a pretty similar set of skills. > > The USC education has additional benefits however. An engineering student > can make contacts there with money people (the smart students and the rich > students need each other.) > > Without that additional benefit... the USC education isn't worth the 75K a > year. Students might as well sit out the plague semesters and take classes > at the local state U. > > spike > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 20:08:00 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:08:00 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: Do you think, John, that kids cannot define the words they use? Sure, they see a man doing the high jump and learn the definition of that skill. I would argue that examples ARE definitions. But abstractions are much harder to provide examples of, which is why people like me cannot grok quantum theory. You can't show it to me. Usage, for us liberal guys, is what defines words, and the dictionaries follow that, mostly, though some hold out for years, as they did on 'ain't'. It is for sure a word. I am peculiar, as we all know. I spent a good deal of my life, and still a part of it, with my nose in a dictionary, preferably a big one - right now I have three large tomes of the OED - too expensive online - and an icon that sends me directly to etymology.com. I also need one for modern slang. "Mansplained" is a recent entry for me. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 1:50 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 11:44 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > There is nothing more important than the definition of words, because >> without precise ones we cannot communicate. > > > Nonsense! Children don't learn to speak from definitions, and where do > you think lexicographers got the information to write the definitions in > their Dictionary? There is only one place they could have gotten it, from > examples. Most people don't have a dictionary in their house and haven't > used one since their fifth grade teacher made them, but they nevertheless > manage to communicate just fine. > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 20:11:45 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:11:45 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: Most people don't have a dictionary in their house and haven't used one since their fifth grade teacher made them, but they nevertheless manage to communicate just fine. John K Clark In everyday conversation, I agree with you. (although general semanticists argue that real transmission of ideas is way less than 100% even there) But get a bit more complicated and nuanced and toss in some college level words, and most people are lost hopelessly. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 1:50 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 11:44 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > There is nothing more important than the definition of words, because >> without precise ones we cannot communicate. > > > Nonsense! Children don't learn to speak from definitions, and where do > you think lexicographers got the information to write the definitions in > their Dictionary? There is only one place they could have gotten it, from > examples. Most people don't have a dictionary in their house and haven't > used one since their fifth grade teacher made them, but they nevertheless > manage to communicate just fine. > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 21:18:43 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 21:18:43 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:09 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > Do you think, John, that kids cannot define the words they use? Sure, they see a man doing the high jump and learn the definition of that skill. I would argue that examples ARE definitions. But abstractions are much harder to provide examples of, which is why people like me cannot grok quantum theory. You can't show it to me. Usage, for us liberal guys, is what defines words, and the dictionaries follow that, mostly, though some hold out for years, as they did on 'ain't'. It is for sure a word. > > I am peculiar, as we all know. I spent a good deal of my life, and still a part of it, with my nose in a dictionary, preferably a big one - right now I have three large tomes of the OED - too expensive online - and an icon that sends me directly to etymology.com. I also need one for modern slang. "Mansplained" is a recent entry for me. bill w In ordinary usage -- and even in non-ordinary usage -- there is a difference between an example and a definition. Showing someone an example -- for instance, showing my neighbor's dog -- is not the same as offering a definition. Now it's true in real life people often offer up examples to clarify meaning, but that's not the same as offering up a definition. (And, sadly, there is sometimes the common confusion here of saying of someone or something that they are 'the very definition of' some word.) Showing an example sometimes works well enough but can be confusing too -- as in what's the relevant feature of the example? For instance, imagine someone doesn't know what democracy is and you say, 'Well, like the US today.' Might that not lead to confusion? Regards, Dan From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 21:27:04 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 16:27:04 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: Nobody said that the examples were perfect. In fact, I think that a good definition-by-example would involve many examples of the concept in question (watch a dog show), and furthermore, show differences that might not be apparent on a few looks - or even a lot of looks, such as the difference between a dog and a similar looking wolf.. Democracy = the U. S. is just ludicrous. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 4:20 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:09 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > Do you think, John, that kids cannot define the words they use? Sure, > they see a man doing the high jump and learn the definition of that skill. > I would argue that examples ARE definitions. But abstractions are much > harder to provide examples of, which is why people like me cannot grok > quantum theory. You can't show it to me. Usage, for us liberal guys, is > what defines words, and the dictionaries follow that, mostly, though some > hold out for years, as they did on 'ain't'. It is for sure a word. > > > > I am peculiar, as we all know. I spent a good deal of my life, and > still a part of it, with my nose in a dictionary, preferably a big one - > right now I have three large tomes of the OED - too expensive online - and > an icon that sends me directly to etymology.com. I also need one for > modern slang. "Mansplained" is a recent entry for me. bill w > > In ordinary usage -- and even in non-ordinary usage -- there is a > difference between an example and a definition. Showing someone an > example -- for instance, showing my neighbor's dog -- is not the same > as offering a definition. Now it's true in real life people often > offer up examples to clarify meaning, but that's not the same as > offering up a definition. (And, sadly, there is sometimes the common > confusion here of saying of someone or something that they are 'the > very definition of' some word.) > > Showing an example sometimes works well enough but can be confusing > too -- as in what's the relevant feature of the example? For instance, > imagine someone doesn't know what democracy is and you say, 'Well, > like the US today.' Might that not lead to confusion? > > Regards, > > Dan > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 13 21:55:26 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:55:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds Nobody said that the examples were perfect. ?. the difference between a dog and a similar looking wolf.. Democracy = the U. S. is just ludicrous. bill w Ja thanks for that BillW. Far too many Americans don?t understand that the US is not a democracy. Plenty would have it be one, but there is a reason why we don?t say ??and to the democracy for which it stands?? The USA is a republic, a constitutional union of democracies, united in common defense and in united in common cause: to whoop ass at the Olympic games. Otherwise those sneaky commie bahstids will win far too many medals. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 23:41:40 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 18:41:40 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Spike, can you even, even you, imagine what rights we would have if they were voted on today? Here is one especially made for you. What rights do people really want? bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 4:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds > > > > Nobody said that the examples were perfect. ?. the difference between a > dog and a similar looking wolf.. Democracy = the U. S. is just ludicrous. > bill w > > > > > > Ja thanks for that BillW. > > > > Far too many Americans don?t understand that the US is not a democracy. > Plenty would have it be one, but there is a reason why we don?t say ??and > to the democracy for which it stands?? > > > > The USA is a republic, a constitutional union of democracies, united in > common defense and in united in common cause: to whoop ass at the Olympic > games. Otherwise those sneaky commie bahstids will win far too many medals. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 13 23:58:57 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 23:58:57 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 9:57 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds > Nobody said that the examples were perfect. ?. the difference between a dog and a similar looking wolf.. Democracy = the U. S. is just ludicrous. bill w > > Ja thanks for that BillW. > > Far too many Americans don?t understand that the US is not a democracy. Plenty would have it be one, but there is a reason why we don?t say ??and to the democracy for which it stands?? > > The USA is a republic, a constitutional union of democracies, united in common defense and in united in common cause: to whoop ass at the Olympic games. Otherwise those sneaky commie bahstids will win far too many medals. That really depends on what you mean by 'democracy' and 'republic.' Even changing terms in my example, if someone asks you what 'republic' means and you say, 'The US,' do you think that wouldn't lead to any confusion? If you then went on and threw out more examples -- Venice during the Late Middle Ages and England under Cromwell -- would that even clear matters up? My guess is eventually you'd have to define the term, even if only loosely, rather than just list a bunch of stuff. Maybe a better example would've been something like 'prime number' or 'vertebrate.' One could list lots of prime numbers and without a definition one couldn't be sure one was clear about meaning (within useful limits). Ditto for 'vertebrate.' You can list all kinds of vertebrates out, but the definition avoids much grief here. As for the usual _conservative_ quibble here, often in US politics it just means a representative _democracy_ as opposed to a direct democracy -- which just means representatives are democratically elected and supposedly represent the people (the demos) in their use of their elected offices. And the whole notion that it's not an X, it's a Y doesn't settle the issue of whether it should be an X or a Y. (Yeah, I get it. Some folks here believe if other folks 200+ years ago decided that's it's a Y, then one should never ever want it to be other than a Y -- or should only work within Y to change it. You know, like those folks 200+ years ago never worked outside the British system to change it. They completely worked only through the Parliament and never judged it outside that system.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 00:06:42 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 17:06:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds >?Spike, can you even, even you, imagine what rights we would have? Sure can BillW. These: >? if they were voted on today? Fortunately, the Bill of Rights are not voted on. Those would be permissions and opinions. Rights pre-existed the US constitution. We still have them even if they are being infringed. >? Here is one especially made for you. What rights do people really want? bill w Another easy one. These: We Americans still have rights even if we don?t want them. But no worries, I want them enough to cover the both of us. With change left over. I can say little more without risk of being booted over to ExI-political. Any questions? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 26328 bytes Desc: not available URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:08:17 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 00:08:17 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 9:28 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > Nobody said that the examples were perfect. In fact, I think that a good definition-by-example would involve many examples of the concept in question (watch a dog show), and furthermore, show differences that might not be apparent on a few looks - or even a lot of looks, such as the difference between a dog and a similar looking wolf.. Democracy = the U. S. is just ludicrous. > bill w I wasn't arguing for perfection, but with my examples it should be obvious why there might be problems thought would be easier to resolve by a standard definition: one doesn't have to list out myriad examples and hope the other person gets it and isn't confused by something else. With the dog example -- true, people rarely define dog in real life and they're so common for most people (as opposed to wolves and coyotes, which look very close to them) that there seems little need for definition. But my point was that definition in the standard way is so much more efficient than examples that this is why people use definitions at all and why dictionaries in general aren't merely lists of examples covered by the words. For instance, for dog, see: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dog and for democracy, see: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/democracy In either case, why didn't the dictionary list examples and that would be that? Well, for the reasons I stated: this would lead to confusion because the reader might not know what's being included or excluded. Might a reasonable reader who sees, say, my neighbor's dog listed as an example think the term means a mammal or maybe a pet or maybe a furry object or a brown one? How would we settle this? Well we could pile ever more examples and give examples of non-dogs too, but that would be cumbersome. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:14:16 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 19:14:16 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Yes - question: why don't you answer the question? If people voted, would they vote themselves a guaranteed income? Free circus tickets? Come down and think about the common person. Rather than their wants, what would people consider their rights? Loosen up, man! bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:08 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds > > > > >?Spike, can you even, even you, imagine what rights we would have? > > > > Sure can BillW. > > > > These: > > > > > > [image: Farm-Boy Bob, Ph.D: "Matthes, I want you to write down the Bill of > Rights ten times and hand it in" - Discipline in Ag Class comes in handy in > later years] > > > > >? if they were voted on today? > > > > Fortunately, the Bill of Rights are not voted on. Those would be > permissions and opinions. Rights pre-existed the US constitution. We > still have them even if they are being infringed. > > > > >? Here is one especially made for you. What rights do people really > want? bill w > > > > Another easy one. These: > > > > [image: Farm-Boy Bob, Ph.D: "Matthes, I want you to write down the Bill of > Rights ten times and hand it in" - Discipline in Ag Class comes in handy in > later years] > > > > We Americans still have rights even if we don?t want them. But no > worries, I want them enough to cover the both of us. With change left over. > > > > I can say little more without risk of being booted over to ExI-political. > > > > Any questions? > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 26328 bytes Desc: not available URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:26:12 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:26:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: We appear to be in the declining late phase of empire. Once the USD loses reserve currency status, it's all downhill from there... So I go with panem et circenses. On Sun, Sep 13, 2020, 8:23 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yes - question: why don't you answer the question? If people voted, > would they vote themselves a guaranteed income? Free circus tickets? Come > down and think about the common person. Rather than their wants, what > would people consider their rights? Loosen up, man! bill w > > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:08 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat >> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds >> >> >> >> >?Spike, can you even, even you, imagine what rights we would have? >> >> >> >> Sure can BillW. >> >> >> >> These: >> >> >> >> >> >> [image: Farm-Boy Bob, Ph.D: "Matthes, I want you to write down the Bill >> of Rights ten times and hand it in" - Discipline in Ag Class comes in handy >> in later years] >> >> >> >> >? if they were voted on today? >> >> >> >> Fortunately, the Bill of Rights are not voted on. Those would be >> permissions and opinions. Rights pre-existed the US constitution. We >> still have them even if they are being infringed. >> >> >> >> >? Here is one especially made for you. What rights do people really >> want? bill w >> >> >> >> Another easy one. These: >> >> >> >> [image: Farm-Boy Bob, Ph.D: "Matthes, I want you to write down the Bill >> of Rights ten times and hand it in" - Discipline in Ag Class comes in handy >> in later years] >> >> >> >> We Americans still have rights even if we don?t want them. But no >> worries, I want them enough to cover the both of us. With change left over. >> >> >> >> I can say little more without risk of being booted over to ExI-political. >> >> >> >> Any questions? >> >> >> >> spike >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 26328 bytes Desc: not available URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:31:18 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 00:31:18 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:57 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > if you read Bryan Caplan's book on education, I'd also wonder if > it matters. One of his theses is that most education is simply > forgotten or has little impact once the degree is achieved. > > This reminds me of how many people approach learning and education: > memorizing trivia. Dan > > There are many areas, psych not one of them, that do require extensive rote memory, though not of trivia - anatomy for one; many science classes. But I am not a fan of rote memory, being poor at it. Would have flunked anatomy big time. But here's a couple of thoughts: things learned tend not to be forgotten. Oh if you give them their final from two years ago they probably will flunk it - some studies have shown that. But that's not the point: the point is that when they have to deal with the thing or process, it will come back to them when they re-read that material. (Thus the theory of open book tests.) Re-learning is far faster than learning. A learned person cannot just pull out of his head everything he knows. He takes a book off the shelf, reads a few pages, memories come back, and he can talk expertly about it, or do it if it's a process. The original learning was not wasted at all. To me, a lot of education is about learning how to learn. And what you have to learn in the future might not be anywhere near the same as what you learned in school, but the process of learning it is. > > Do not get me wrong. I am a strong critic of education at every level, and teaching trivia is a small part of that. bill w Foreign language classes often require rote memorization too. And most US-Americans have had to fulfill a foreign language requirement for a college degree. And most promptly forget almost all of that, though to be fair proficiency is always low in that area even during lessons. (I had a slight leg up with grandparents who spoke Norwegian and German, but I never really became a proficient speaker of either despite years of classes. I did enough to get through college. And, yeah, I can understand a tiny amount of dialogue in film.:) Caplan's point isn't that some memorized stuff might not be useful. No doubt, it is, though note the example you used: anatomy. For most of us, it's not useful in everyday life and what little is learned might as well be trivia. But other areas, like history taught in school, seem to be just trivia. What matters it if one knows or doesn't know the names of Columbus's ships? It's memorizing the state capitols: you remember it because it might be on the test. Maybe you can recall some of it later in life if prompted (do you really think you can recall all the bones in the hand or the foot if prompted? why would you even need to?) In many cases, too, the time spent memorizing these things doesn't teach you how to learn better... How many pieces of trivia do you need to learn too to learn to learn better? Most of it is about getting the degree. What it really does, according to Caplan, is show one is both smart (or at least cognitively capable) and willing to conform to laborious tasks and rules. Both are important, in his view, because education is used to decide who gets jobs. And employers want intelligent conformists. His basic argument is education is an extremely wasteful way to do this. Huge amounts of effort and time are expended to figure out someone isn't a dolt AND will basically follow orders. As for relearning, a problem here is that works well if the stuff is ever useful. I've been fortunate, for example, to get a math degree and sometimes I stumble onto math stuff at work -- usually statistics, though that wasn't my area of specialization -- and it's easy to get up to speed or refresh my memory. But many areas that simply doesn't happen and seems a waste. After all, time spend learning one thing could be used learning something else or doing something else. At the limit, you have people getting degrees simply to get better jobs where aspects of the degree are just stuff chucked in because an accrediting authority thought it was needed. The foreign language one seems a great example, especially since a few classes in college are unlikely to make someone useful in that language without lots of extra effort. (And, in my personal example, I choose the language I already had some proficiency in. Were I really serious about learning a useful foreign language -- if the choice of language really matter as opposed to merely fulfilling the degree requirement -- I'd have chosen Spanish or Mandarin.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 00:35:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 17:35:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <028401d68a2e$ff330230$fd990690$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds >?Yes - question: why don't you answer the question? If people voted, would they vote themselves a guaranteed income? Hard to say BillW. It leaves the question of who do they vote for to pay that income? You? How? If people voted for a guaranteed income and had to pay for two guaranteed incomes, would that be a good idea? How about three? Five? How many guaranteed incomes can you afford? >? Free circus tickets? We can have that now, if we can find circus people who will work free. Now that you mention it, you and I do have free circus tickets. The internet is a circus, filled with clowns, acrobats, entertainers, burlesque shows, you name it, it?s there, all free. Thanks for pointing it out however. I had never really thought of the internet as the greatest show on earth, all free, but that?s what it is. You and I are two lucky guys to have lived long enough to see it, and to know what it was like before there was a free circus. >? Come down and think about the common person. Rather than their wants, what would people consider their rights? Loosen up, man! bill w That?s what I did, BillW. Those rights listed in the graphic are the rights which already existed when that document was written. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:38:10 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 00:38:10 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 12:30 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > We appear to be in the declining late phase of empire. Once the USD loses > reserve currency status, it's all downhill from there... > > So I go with panem et circenses. > I'm curious why the comparison is always with the Roman _Empire_ and not with the Roman _Republic_. And the Roman Empire lasted quite a long time, especially if you consider the Eastern part survived long after Rome "fell." (It's hard to draw a line too of when exactly the Eastern part ended. Surely, long before Constantinople fell, but still long after the city of Rome fell to outside rulers.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 00:58:04 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 19:58:04 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <028401d68a2e$ff330230$fd990690$@rainier66.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> <028401d68a2e$ff330230$fd990690$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: OK, I give up. You are taking this seriously and I am not (exceptions at the end). The point is not what is affordable, doable, ,or anything else. It's what people think they are entitled to and do not have now. A high school teacher I know says that the kids now have an incredible sense of entitlement - Uncle Sam will provide. One serious example: the right to say anything they want to anyone they want without consequences. Many people, such as high school or college newspaper editors, think they can do that now because it's free speech, isn't it? We, of course, know better. Another serious example: should internet access be a right? It is getting hard to function without it. It could be another form of welfare. "provide for the general welfare" - wow. That can mean just about anything. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:45 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds > > > > >?Yes - question: why don't you answer the question? If people voted, > would they vote themselves a guaranteed income? > > > > Hard to say BillW. It leaves the question of who do they vote for to pay > that income? You? How? If people voted for a guaranteed income and had > to pay for two guaranteed incomes, would that be a good idea? How about > three? Five? How many guaranteed incomes can you afford? > > > > > > >? Free circus tickets? > > > > We can have that now, if we can find circus people who will work free. > > > > Now that you mention it, you and I do have free circus tickets. The > internet is a circus, filled with clowns, acrobats, entertainers, burlesque > shows, you name it, it?s there, all free. Thanks for pointing it out > however. I had never really thought of the internet as the greatest show > on earth, all free, but that?s what it is. > > > > You and I are two lucky guys to have lived long enough to see it, and to > know what it was like before there was a free circus. > > > > > > >? Come down and think about the common person. Rather than their > wants, what would people consider their rights? Loosen up, man! bill w > > > > That?s what I did, BillW. Those rights listed in the graphic are the > rights which already existed when that document was written. > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 01:32:23 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2020 18:32:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> <028401d68a2e$ff330230$fd990690$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02bf01d68a36$e5e9a510$b1bcef30$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds >?OK, I give up. You are taking this seriously and I am not (exceptions at the end). The point is not what is affordable, doable, ,or anything else. It's what people think they are entitled to and do not have now. A high school teacher I know says that the kids now have an incredible sense of entitlement - Uncle Sam will provide? They have a right to feel entitled to it if they wish. But at some point they may suddenly realize that Uncle Sam isn?t providing. >?One serious example: the right to say anything they want to anyone they want without consequences? When I encounter that, I point out that it is true: they can say whatever they want without legal consequences from the Federal government. Your employer may fire your ass, the locals may harass until you leave town, but the Fed will stand down on that. >?Another serious example: should internet access be a right? We treat it as one. I don?t recall having to ask anyone for access to that. We even give students a free connection (it is limited in speed and scope.) >?It is getting hard to function without it. It could be another form of welfare. "provide for the general welfare" - wow. That can mean just about anything. bill w Sure can. I can definitely see giving away internet and food. Around here we are doing that now: every grocery store checkout machine offers the prole an opportunity to donate to the food bank. I kick in ten bucks each time. It isn?t much but evidently it is working: volunteers box it up and hand it out twice a week. I have been involved with the food bank for years because of scouts. That is one community service that is perfectly safe, there is no one complaining it is taking away jobs, it works great. Welfare is ?eat well.? Promoting the general welfare is seeing that people eat. So? OK, give food to the hungry. Don?t give em money, give em food. We can afford that, states can run it if they want, counties, cities can run it. It wouldn?t really compete with those offering minimum wage jobs, it wouldn?t destroy minimum wage earner?s ambition. Internet is a great deal: it doesn?t cost much to give away, and the educational resources available there are unlimited, mind-blowing. You should wander over to Khan Academy and look that over. What you and I wouldn?t give to have something like that in our own misspent youth, oh mercy. With all that, we wouldn?t even really need school, or if so, for nothing more than a great place to scope out the girls. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stathisp at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 03:27:38 2020 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 13:27:38 +1000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, 13 Sep 2020 at 14:36, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Quoting John Clark: > > > On Sat, Aug 29, 2020 at 11:53 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > * > What you are saying is classically correct, but at a quantum level > >> you have a mathematical object i.e. information,* > > > > > > And that information says one observer will see the electron go left for > no > > apparent reason and another observer will see the electron go right for > no > > apparent reason. But in reality the reason is that everything that can > > happen will happen. > > I don't disagree, but such a thing requires either the lavish > extravagance of infinity or some nigh-magical FTL book-keeping. Local > hidden variables have been largely ruled out by experiment but perhaps > global hidden variables exist. > > > *> Everett's theory, there is only ONE monolithic wave function, a > >> universal one.* > >> > > > > I know, that's why Everett's theory is a favorite among cosmologists, but > > what I don't know is why you think the quantum Zeno effect Is evidence > that > > this is untrue. > > I did but I found your explanation for how it needn't be rather > compelling. I buy your explanation especially because it leaves > freedom of choice intact even though it requires that all the > different versions of an observer to make every possible choice as > well. The only way that the conscious choices of all the alternate > versions of the observers could encompass every possible choice > available to them is if their consciousnesses were also terms of the > universal wave function interfering with one another. In other words > it would require consciousness to be a quantum phenomena. How else > could all the different John Clarks be expected to obey quantum > unitarity and choose differently in different branches? > All the different JCs have different brains and different experiences. One JC chooses vanilla and is aware of choosing vanilla, while another JC chooses chocolate and is aware of choosing chocolate. Each JC says "I chose my flavour because I wanted to". > >> *> All actual computers that have been constructed thus far have > >> been finite state machines approximating a Turing machines and not > >> actual Turing machines which are purely abstract mathematical ideals > that > >> have infinite tape i.e. unlimited memory or hard drive space.* > > > > > > That is incorrect. All Turing Machines that you see that are still > working > > on a problem have only used a finite amount of tape, and all Turing > > Machines that have actually produced an answer have only used a finite > > amount of tape to produce that answer. > > Yes, but Turing also proved there is no way to tell if a Turing > machine ever halts with output except to wait and see. A Turing > machine that never halts must have infinite tape to compute forever. > > In any case, why believe me when you can get it directly from the > source. Several times in his paper linked to below, Alan Turing speaks > of his machine outputting an infinite string of zeros. Such is only > possible if it it had an infinite amount of tape with which to output > an infinite string of zeros. > > https://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/Turing_Paper_1936.pdf > > > Turing Machines have unlimited > > memory but that's not the same thing as infinite memory, it just means > when > > you start to run out of tape you need to add some more tape if you want > any > > hope of ever getting an answer. If you have to keep adding tape forever > > then the function is uncomputable, the Busy Beaver function for example > is > > not computable. The first four Busy Beaver numbers have been computed, > they > > are 1, 6, 21, and 107, the fifth is suspected by some of being 47,176,870 > > but that has not been proven and may never be proven. It has been proven > > that the 748'th Busy Beaver number, although well-defined and finite, is > > not computable, if God exists even He doesn't know what the 748'th Busy > > Beaver number is, He may not even know for sure what the fifth Busy > Beaver > > number is. > > There is only a countable infinity of computable numbers while there > are an uncountable infinity of real numbers and and almost all real > numbers are uncomputable. The busy beaver numbers are not special in > that regard. But their epistemic existence does make it less likely > that the universe is a Turing machine even with infinite tape. > > Of course if the continuum i.e. aleph-1 ontologically exists as a > physical entity, then uncomputable numbers could be physically > manifest without actually ever needing to be computed. Just like the > hypotenuse of the unit square ontologically exists even though its > length cannot be computed in finite time. > > >> *Why do you think general relativity can't be true at Planck scales?* > > > > > > Nobody thinks General Relativity can be true with the Planck scale, if > you > > try to calculate things at that scale you always get the same answers, > > infinite energy, infinite density, infinite curvature, infinite momentum > > ,,,, that's useless. That's why we need a quantum theory of gravity. > > Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are our two best physical > > theories, One does a good job explaining the weak and strong nuclear > forces > > and electromagnetism, and the other does a good job explaining gravity, > but > > they are incompatible, they don't play nice with each other. > > If quantum events at the Planck scale are constantly creating new > universes with alternate histories, then maybe the infinities one > calculates at the Planck scale are in fact what is actually physically > manifesting. > > > > >> *> This demonstrates that to a certain extent that we can choose the > >> Everett branch we find ourselves in. That sounds like free will to me,* > > > > The scientists either chose to perform the experiment for a reason in > which > > case they're cuckoo clocks, or they decided to perform the experiment for > > no reason in which case they are roulette wheels. > > I don't like this analogy of yours for several reasons. First of all, > cuckoo clocks operate with a mechanism that follows simple direct > cause and effect. Cuckoo clocks don't actually make decisions; they > simply repeat the exact same actions over and over in a periodic > fashion until they run out of energy. Secondly roulette wheels are > deterministically chaotic but not actually random. That is to say that > the ball settles on a number for a long chain of reasons, causes, and > effects and that the earlier reasons are given greater weight as to > outcome than the later ones. > > Intelligent agents, those with the ability to make decisions and > presumably having a will that is more or less free, are more like > thermostats or computers. They are able to make decisions based on > abstract information such that cause and effect are disconnected from > each other allowing for indirect and thereby intentional causation. In > other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately. So > for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could never > directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel. But in a > thermostat, the drop in temperature is abstracted to change the shape > of a sensor which activates a burner to burn fuel and provide heat. Of > course, things that are truly random cannot be said to actually make > decisions which require reasons even if they are abstract, indirect, > or obscure. > > Stuart LaForge > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -- Stathis Papaioannou -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 04:17:07 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 00:17:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:50 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I'm curious why the comparison is always with the Roman _Empire_ and not > with the Roman _Republic_. And the Roman Empire lasted quite a long time, > especially if you consider the Eastern part survived long after Rome > "fell." (It's hard to draw a line too of when exactly the Eastern part > ended. Surely, long before Constantinople fell, but still long after the > city of Rome fell to outside rulers.) > It just so happens I have a healthy obsession with ancient history with a focus on the Romans. It's all as a layperson, but I've been obsessed with that time period (and the barbarian successors in the West) since I took four years of Latin in high school. Anyways, any comparisons between the US and any part of Rome are very tenuous at best IMO. I'm not even sure they really rhyme, let alone repeat. That said I picked the Empire versus the Republic because of the expansive umbrella of the US's influence in the world from WW II forward. As far as the fall of the actual Roman Empire, the Western half arguably fell not with a bang but a whimper in 476 Anno Domini under the inauspicious reign of the boy emperor Romulus Augustulus. It was already coming apart at the seams long before him though. Once the Praetorian Guard abandoned their sacred duties and started both assassinating and appointing emperors The Eastern Roman Empire arguably was finished somewhat ironically at the hands of the the West during the 4th Crusade. Yes, it took the Turks and a very large cannon a few hundred years later to bring down the actual Theodosian walls, but the East never really recovered from the damage done during the 4th Crusade. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Mon Sep 14 08:12:06 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 01:12:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> On 2020-9-13 12:36, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > Typically, outside of small circles (or scholars, scientists, > technicians, or some clique), any term with a stipulated > definition will stray from that definition as it spreads. I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy of Lojban. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Mon Sep 14 08:15:44 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 01:15:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-13 13:08, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > and an icon that sends me directly to etymology.com. not etymonline.com? > I also need one for modern slang. > "Mansplained" is a recent entry for me. urbandictionary.com -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 13:45:20 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:45:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <20200913124559.Horde.ki1A9kY9yH6vfb5g2JWmSOV@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200913124559.Horde.ki1A9kY9yH6vfb5g2JWmSOV@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 3:49 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves >> as Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. That's >> it. > > > > * > But Schrodinger's equation is time-dependent so that would imply > some sort of multiversal absolute time. Something that > Einstein demonstrated was impossible. Didn't he?* No, Einstein demonstrated it was unnecessary, but as I have said General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics are not compatible theories, although both work very well within their realm of applicability, General Relativity works great for gravity but can say nothing about the nuclear forces, quantum mechanics can say a lot about the nuclear forces but can't say anything about gravity. One theory works for things that are large and massive and the other theory works for things that are small and light, the problem is that there are places where things are both small and massive, and in those places physics has no idea what's going on. Resolving the contradiction between these two very good theories is probably the main goal of modern physics, and it's not going to happen until somebody develops a quantum theory of gravity. * > If calling it "free will" bothers you, why not call it "agency" > instead?* And who has agency? Somebody who has free will. And who has free will? Somebody who has agency. And round and round we go. *> **I have to assume at some point in your life you did something that you > perceived that your mind was responsible for having you do? * Mind is what the brain does, so if my brain caused me to turn left rather than right it must've been because neurons firing in my brain caused me to do it. And those neurons either fired in that way for a reason in which case it was deterministic, or they fired in that way for no reason at all in which case it was random. > * > Like perhaps replying to this email for example? What do you want > to call that? Or do you not believe you have choices? Do you believe the > future is already written?* If there is no way to predict even in theory what's going to happen next and the only way to find out is to wait and see then it doesn't really matter if the future is already written or not, it's not even clear what "already written" could mean. And we know for a fact that things like that do exist, for example it would be easy to set up a Turing Machine to find the first even number that is not the sum of two primes and then stop, but I can't predict what this very simple machine will do even in theory, all I can do is watch and wait and see what it does, and I might be waiting forever. >> It could be that the Real Numbers are not really real because there are >> only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe and physics has never >> discovered a googolplex number of anything much less a aleph-0 or >> aleph-1 infinite number of them. > > > * > Sure it has: The Hamiltonian for those 10^83 atoms has ((10^83)^2 > - 10^83)/2 = 5*10^165 potential energy terms for those atoms,* Your number is a 5 followed by 165 zeros, a googolplex is 10^(10^100), that's a 1 followed by 10^100 zeros. Saying that one number is astronomically larger than the other would be a vast understatement, but that's about the strongest word the English language provides. Compared to a googolplex 5*10^165 is zero to a wonderfully good approximation. > > If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes should >> see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical universe, >> but so far there is no such evidence. > > > > > > * > Maybe the physical manifestation of uncomputable numbers are > responsible for the huge number of paranormal experiences people have > claimed to have had consistently over many centuries of recorded history. > Stuff like UFOs, bigfoot, and ghosts not to mention Jesus on the way to > Damascus?* Or maybe not! >> I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to >> say the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an >> approximation of he hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it >> would be much more accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit >> square is just an approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical >> cardboard square. Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a >> computer model of a hurricane is much simpler than a real physical >> hurricane. > > > * > Mistake? Plato could have been right. Why would you use something > so crude as a cardboard square to test something so precise?* Because no physicist has ever seen a mathematical hypotenuse, however they have seen lines that connect diagonal corners on cardboard squares. Mathematics is the language of physics but mathematics is not physics. English is a language too but the English word "*cow*" cannot give milk. > Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when >> they start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do >> that. The Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being >> useful, and the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General >> Relativity stops being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller >> than the Planck scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. > > > > > > * > I think that if two theories that have never been falsified both > independently stop being useful in a place that cannot be observed, even > in principle, then maybe it is a mistake to assume that anything goes on > in that place at all.* Something was certainly going on during the first few nanoseconds of the Big Bang because it eventually produce the universe we see today, but we don't know what was going on because at time things were very small and very dense and very massive, and neither General Relativity or Quantum Mechanics can say what happens in situations like that. But something sure is hell was going on. We need to find a way to resolve the inherent contradiction between Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity, but that's not gonna happen until somebody finds a quantum theory of gravity. >> What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is nothing >> mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in which >> case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in >> which case we call it a irrational decision. > > > * >Cuckoo clocks cannot split universes by chiming every possible hour > at once for starters.* Some cuckoo clocks just keep chiming continuously and won't stop until they run out of energy, human beings would call such a thing a malfunction but it's still just cause and effect; For one reason or another one part of the clock is now different from what it was before (a break in the drive wheel or whatever) and so it behaves differently than the it did before. In one Everett universe the drive wheel broke and in another it did not. > >> > * In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.** > >> And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. And round > and round we go. > > * > Not quite. All agents have a purpose when making decisions,* And what is a purpose? The reason something is done. And what is a reason? A cause. What comes after a cause? An effect . > >>> So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could never > directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* > > >> Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a > battery, a thermostat and a match head. > > > * > The unlikely confluence of all those components speaks of purpose > and intent. Both hallmarks of agency.* I'm not sure exactly what you mean by the words purpose, intent or agency, but whatever you mean by them do you think a Turing Machine would be incapable of embodying those qualities? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 13:36:09 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 06:36:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning Message-ID: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days before they put the bar on there. That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the last 3.7 years. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn'ta thought it would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in those categories. Or. normal flu deaths are down because of extra precautions? Ideas? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 13:57:50 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:57:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 3:49 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves >> as Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. >> That's it. > > > > *> But Schrodinger's equation is time-dependent so that would imply > some sort of multiversal absolute time. Something that > Einstein demonstrated was impossible. Didn't he?* No, Einstein demonstrated it was unnecessary, but as I have said General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics are not compatible theories, although both work very well within their realm of applicability, General Relativity works great for gravity but can say nothing about the nuclear forces, quantum mechanics can say a lot about the nuclear forces but can't say anything about gravity. One theory works for things that are large and massive and the other theory works for things that are small and light, the problem is that there are places where things are both small and massive, and in those places physics has no idea what's going on. Resolving the contradiction between these two very good theories is probably the main goal of modern physics, and it's not going to happen until somebody develops a quantum theory of gravity. *> If calling it "free will" bothers you, why not call it "agency" > instead?* And who has agency? Somebody who has free will. And who has free will? Somebody who has agency. And round and round we go. *> **I have to assume at some point in your life you did something that you > perceived that your mind was responsible for having you do? * Mind is what the brain does, so if my brain caused me to turn left rather than right it must've been because neurons firing in my brain caused me to do it. And those neurons either fired in that way for a reason in which case it was deterministic, or they fired in that way for no reason at all in which case it was random. > *> Like perhaps replying to this email for example? What do you want > to call that? Or do you not believe you have choices? Do you believe the > future is already written?* If there is no way to predict even in theory what's going to happen next and the only way to find out is to wait and see then it doesn't really matter if the future is already written or not, it's not even clear what "already written" could mean. And we know for a fact that things like that do exist, for example it would be easy to set up a Turing Machine to find the first even number that is not the sum of two primes and then stop, but I can't predict what this very simple machine will do even in theory, all I can do is watch and wait and see what it does, and I might be waiting forever. >> It could be that the Real Numbers are not really real because there are >> only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe and physics has never >> discovered a googolplex number of anything much less a aleph-0 or >> aleph-1 infinite number of them. > > > *> Sure it has: The Hamiltonian for those 10^83 atoms has ((10^83)^2 > - 10^83)/2 = 5*10^165 potential energy terms for those atoms,* Your number is a 5 followed by 165 zeros, a googolplex is 10^(10^100), that's a 1 followed by 10^100 zeros. Saying that one number is astronomically larger than the other would be a vast understatement, but that's about the strongest word the English language provides. Compared to a googolplex 5*10^165 is zero to a wonderfully good approximation. > > If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes should >> see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical universe, >> but so far there is no such evidence. > > > > > > *> Maybe the physical manifestation of uncomputable numbers > are responsible for the huge number of paranormal experiences people > have claimed to have had consistently over many centuries of > recorded history. Stuff like UFOs, bigfoot, and ghosts not to mention Jesus > on the way to Damascus?* Or maybe not! >> I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to >> say the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an >> approximation of he hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it >> would be much more accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit >> square is just an approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical >> cardboard square. Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a >> computer model of a hurricane is much simpler than a real physical >> hurricane. > > > *> Mistake? Plato could have been right. Why would you use something > so crude as a cardboard square to test something so precise?* Because no physicist has ever seen a mathematical hypotenuse, however they have seen lines that connect diagonal corners on cardboard squares. Mathematics is the language of physics but mathematics is not physics. English is a language too but the English word "*cow*" cannot give milk. > Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when >> they start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do >> that. The Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being >> useful, and the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General >> Relativity stops being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller >> than the Planck scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. > > > > > > *> I think that if two theories that have never been falsified > both independently stop being useful in a place that cannot be > observed, even in principle, then maybe it is a mistake to assume that > anything goes on in that place at all.* Something was certainly going on during the first few nanoseconds of the Big Bang because it eventually produce the universe we see today, but we don't know what was going on because at time things were very small and very dense and very massive, and neither General Relativity or Quantum Mechanics can say what happens in situations like that. But something sure is hell was going on. We need to find a way to resolve the inherent contradiction between Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity, but that's not gonna happen until somebody finds a quantum theory of gravity. >> What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is nothing >> mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in which >> case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in >> which case we call it a irrational decision. > > > *>Cuckoo clocks cannot split universes by chiming every possible hour > at once for starters.* Some cuckoo clocks just keep chiming continuously and won't stop until they run out of energy, human beings would call such a thing a malfunction but it's still just cause and effect; For one reason or another one part of the clock is now different from what it was before (a break in the drive wheel or whatever) and so it behaves differently than the it did before. In one Everett universe the drive wheel broke and in another it did not. > >> > * In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.** > >> And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. And > round and round we go. > > *> Not quite. All agents have a purpose when making decisions,* And what is a purpose? The reason something is done. And what is a reason? A cause. What comes after a cause? An effect . > >>> So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could never > directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* > > >> Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a > battery, a thermostat and a match head. > > > *> The unlikely confluence of all those components speaks of purpose > and intent. Both hallmarks of agency.* I'm not sure exactly what you mean by the words purpose, intent or agency, but whatever you mean by them do you think a Turing Machine would be incapable of embodying those qualities? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 15:06:00 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:06:00 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: For a long time the pro basketballer Jerry Lucas had a book on memorization. If I were 50 years younger I would have every class buy it. Few people can come up with more than one or two memory tricks which can be extremely useful and far faster than the typical student would use on his own. A good rote memory saves time even over a smartphone for names and numbers. Memorize them once and never have to look them up again. No more lost passwords. Etc. (this has nothing to do with how much rote memory teachers are asking for) I hate history because there were no theories presented to try to make sense of the things we were supposed to memorize. I can remember ideas just fine: names, dates, places, not so much. Huge waste of time for something one can always look up. Also, why put all that stuff in your head? I am a master gardener but never tried to memorize the bugs. So I have a book. Look at the bug, find it in the book. Waste of brain space to memorize all those critters. College is for getting a rounded education featuring the basics of Western Civilization. No, that does not help a person get a job. Trade school does that. Increasingly I think a person will take some online courses in what they are interested in, say banking, and that will be the only education they need. Some years ago I read of medical schools wanting their students coming into medical school not having had all the science courses they can cram in, but social sciences and humanities. They don't want their students just to be science drones. Interesting. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:35 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 7:57 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > > if you read Bryan Caplan's book on education, I'd also wonder if > > it matters. One of his theses is that most education is simply > > forgotten or has little impact once the degree is achieved. > > > > This reminds me of how many people approach learning and education: > > memorizing trivia. Dan > > > > There are many areas, psych not one of them, that do require extensive > rote memory, though not of trivia - anatomy for one; many science classes. > But I am not a fan of rote memory, being poor at it. Would have flunked > anatomy big time. But here's a couple of thoughts: things learned tend > not to be forgotten. Oh if you give them their final from two years ago > they probably will flunk it - some studies have shown that. But that's not > the point: the point is that when they have to deal with the thing or > process, it will come back to them when they re-read that material. (Thus > the theory of open book tests.) Re-learning is far faster than learning. > A learned person cannot just pull out of his head everything he knows. He > takes a book off the shelf, reads a few pages, memories come back, and he > can talk expertly about it, or do it if it's a process. The original > learning was not wasted at all. To me, a lot of education is about > learning how to learn. And what you! > have to learn in the future might not be anywhere near the same as what > you learned in school, but the process of learning it is. > > > > Do not get me wrong. I am a strong critic of education at every level, > and teaching trivia is a small part of that. bill w > > Foreign language classes often require rote memorization too. And most > US-Americans have had to fulfill a foreign language requirement for a > college degree. And most promptly forget almost all of that, though to > be fair proficiency is always low in that area even during lessons. (I > had a slight leg up with grandparents who spoke Norwegian and German, > but I never really became a proficient speaker of either despite years > of classes. I did enough to get through college. And, yeah, I can > understand a tiny amount of dialogue in film.:) > > Caplan's point isn't that some memorized stuff might not be useful. No > doubt, it is, though note the example you used: anatomy. For most of > us, it's not useful in everyday life and what little is learned might > as well be trivia. But other areas, like history taught in school, > seem to be just trivia. What matters it if one knows or doesn't know > the names of Columbus's ships? It's memorizing the state capitols: you > remember it because it might be on the test. Maybe you can recall some > of it later in life if prompted (do you really think you can recall > all the bones in the hand or the foot if prompted? why would you even > need to?) > > In many cases, too, the time spent memorizing these things doesn't > teach you how to learn better... How many pieces of trivia do you need > to learn too to learn to learn better? Most of it is about getting the > degree. What it really does, according to Caplan, is show one is both > smart (or at least cognitively capable) and willing to conform to > laborious tasks and rules. Both are important, in his view, because > education is used to decide who gets jobs. And employers want > intelligent conformists. His basic argument is education is an > extremely wasteful way to do this. Huge amounts of effort and time are > expended to figure out someone isn't a dolt AND will basically follow > orders. > > As for relearning, a problem here is that works well if the stuff is > ever useful. I've been fortunate, for example, to get a math degree > and sometimes I stumble onto math stuff at work -- usually statistics, > though that wasn't my area of specialization -- and it's easy to get > up to speed or refresh my memory. But many areas that simply doesn't > happen and seems a waste. After all, time spend learning one thing > could be used learning something else or doing something else. At the > limit, you have people getting degrees simply to get better jobs where > aspects of the degree are just stuff chucked in because an accrediting > authority thought it was needed. The foreign language one seems a > great example, especially since a few classes in college are unlikely > to make someone useful in that language without lots of extra effort. > (And, in my personal example, I choose the language I already had some > proficiency in. Were I really serious about learning a useful foreign > language -- if the choice of language really matter as opposed to > merely fulfilling the degree requirement -- I'd have chosen Spanish or > Mandarin.) > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 15:06:30 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:06:30 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-13 12:36, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > Typically, outside of small circles (or scholars, scientists, > > technicians, or some clique), any term with a stipulated > > definition will stray from that definition as it spreads. > > I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it > were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy of > Lojban. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines of English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain that? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 15:07:43 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:07:43 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: <02bf01d68a36$e5e9a510$b1bcef30$@rainier66.com> References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> <028401d68a2e$ff330230$fd990690$@rainier66.com> <02bf01d68a36$e5e9a510$b1bcef30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: To start: Mississippi and California could hardly be more different. In the Delta, our poorest place, there is no access of any kind to the web (and 50 miles to the nearest hospital, and many of those are closing - and the stupid Repubs won't expand Medicare - has cost of 8 billions dollars so far). So the state would have to pay the cost of extending the cables etc. to the little towns and crossroads. And of course there is no money for that, for prison reform (the feds will sue and take over and make us do that just like they did in Alabama in 1973 to the chagrin of George Wallace - no kin!) So if internet access is treated as a right then the feds will have to step in and help poor states like Mississippi. bill w On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds > > > > >?OK, I give up. You are taking this seriously and I am not (exceptions > at the end). The point is not what is affordable, doable, ,or anything > else. It's what people think they are entitled to and do not have now. A > high school teacher I know says that the kids now have an incredible sense > of entitlement - Uncle Sam will provide? > > > > They have a right to feel entitled to it if they wish. But at some point > they may suddenly realize that Uncle Sam isn?t providing. > > > > > > >?One serious example: the right to say anything they want to anyone > they want without consequences? > > > > When I encounter that, I point out that it is true: they can say whatever > they want without legal consequences from the Federal government. Your > employer may fire your ass, the locals may harass until you leave town, but > the Fed will stand down on that. > > > > >?Another serious example: should internet access be a right? > > > > We treat it as one. I don?t recall having to ask anyone for access to > that. We even give students a free connection (it is limited in speed and > scope.) > > > > >?It is getting hard to function without it. It could be another form of > welfare. "provide for the general welfare" - wow. That can mean just > about anything. bill w > > > > Sure can. I can definitely see giving away internet and food. Around > here we are doing that now: every grocery store checkout machine offers the > prole an opportunity to donate to the food bank. I kick in ten bucks each > time. It isn?t much but evidently it is working: volunteers box it up and > hand it out twice a week. > > > > I have been involved with the food bank for years because of scouts. That > is one community service that is perfectly safe, there is no one > complaining it is taking away jobs, it works great. Welfare is ?eat > well.? Promoting the general welfare is seeing that people eat. So? OK, > give food to the hungry. Don?t give em money, give em food. We can afford > that, states can run it if they want, counties, cities can run it. It > wouldn?t really compete with those offering minimum wage jobs, it wouldn?t > destroy minimum wage earner?s ambition. > > > > Internet is a great deal: it doesn?t cost much to give away, and the > educational resources available there are unlimited, mind-blowing. You > should wander over to Khan Academy and look that over. What you and I > wouldn?t give to have something like that in our own misspent youth, oh > mercy. With all that, we wouldn?t even really need school, or if so, for > nothing more than a great place to scope out the girls. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 15:57:02 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 08:57:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:51 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > > On 2020-9-13 12:36, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > > Typically, outside of small circles (or scholars, scientists, > > > technicians, or some clique), any term with a stipulated > > > definition will stray from that definition as it spreads. > > > > I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it > > were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy of > > Lojban. > > How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural > languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines of > English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its > strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain that? > And if it never becomes "free range", is there any realistic expectation it would grow beyond maybe a few thousand speakers at most? People making the language their own seems necessary for the language to gain any significant spread. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:09:32 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 11:09:32 -0500 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Catastrophe? I can imagine that quite a few of the nursing home people were glad to have a way off the planet. A silver lining for the silver-headed. I had an aunt who lived to be 96 and who was blind for the last 20 years. She kept wondering why she couldn't die. She would have welcomed a virus like this one. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 10:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. > > > > The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days > before they put the bar on there. > > > > That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the > last 3.7 years. > > > > > > > > https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard > > > > That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn?ta thought it > would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. > > > > European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is > happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps > covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in > those categories. Or? normal flu deaths are down because of extra > precautions? Ideas? > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:20:26 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 11:20:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: And those neurons either fired in that way for a reason in which case it was deterministic, or they fired in that way for no reason at all in which case it was random. John I do not believe that anything that happens in the brain is random. Every effect has a cause, so I would say that they fired that way because there was no DISCERNABLE reason. Random is just a word for our ignorance. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 10:34 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 3:49 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > >> All it requires is one universal wave function that evolves >>> as Schrodinger's deterministic equation says wave functions should evolve. >>> That's it. >> >> >> >> *> But Schrodinger's equation is time-dependent so that would imply >> some sort of multiversal absolute time. Something that >> Einstein demonstrated was impossible. Didn't he?* > > > No, Einstein demonstrated it was unnecessary, but as I have said General > Relativity and Quantum Mechanics are not compatible theories, although both > work very well within their realm of applicability, General Relativity > works great for gravity but can say nothing about the nuclear forces, > quantum mechanics can say a lot about the nuclear forces but can't say > anything about gravity. One theory works for things that are large and > massive and the other theory works for things that are small and light, the > problem is that there are places where things are both small and massive, > and in those places physics has no idea what's going on. Resolving the > contradiction between these two very good theories is probably the main > goal of modern physics, and it's not going to happen until somebody > develops a quantum theory of gravity. > > *> If calling it "free will" bothers you, why not call it "agency" >> instead?* > > > And who has agency? Somebody who has free will. And who has free will? > Somebody who has agency. And round and round we go. > > *> **I have to assume at some point in your life you did something that >> you perceived that your mind was responsible for having you do? * > > > Mind is what the brain does, so if my brain caused me to turn left rather > than right it must've been because neurons firing in my brain caused me to > do it. And those neurons either fired in that way for a reason in which > case it was deterministic, or they fired in that way for no reason at all > in which case it was random. > > >> *> Like perhaps replying to this email for example? What do you want >> to call that? Or do you not believe you have choices? Do you believe the >> future is already written?* > > > If there is no way to predict even in theory what's going to happen next and > the only way to find out is to wait and see then it doesn't really matter > if the future is already written or not, it's not even clear what "already > written" could mean. And we know for a fact that things like that do > exist, for example it would be easy to set up a Turing Machine to find the > first even number that is not the sum of two primes and then stop, but I > can't predict what this very simple machine will do even in theory, all I > can do is watch and wait and see what it does, and I might be waiting > forever. > > >> It could be that the Real Numbers are not really real because there >>> are only about 10^83 atoms in the observable universe and physics has >>> never discovered a googolplex number of anything much less a aleph-0 or >>> aleph-1 infinite number of them. >> >> >> *> Sure it has: The Hamiltonian for those 10^83 atoms has ((10^83)^2 >> - 10^83)/2 = 5*10^165 potential energy terms for those atoms,* > > > Your number is a 5 followed by 165 zeros, a googolplex is 10^(10^100), > that's a 1 followed by 10^100 zeros. Saying that one number is > astronomically larger than the other would be a vast understatement, but > that's about the strongest word the English language provides. Compared to > a googolplex 5*10^165 is zero to a wonderfully good approximation. > >> > > If uncomputable numbers are physically manifest then our physical eyes should >>> see evidence for at least one of them being at work in the physical universe, >>> but so far there is no such evidence. >> >> > > >> >> >> >> *> Maybe the physical manifestation of uncomputable numbers >> are responsible for the huge number of paranormal experiences people >> have claimed to have had consistently over many centuries of >> recorded history. Stuff like UFOs, bigfoot, and ghosts not to mention Jesus >> on the way to Damascus?* > > > Or maybe not! > > >> I think it would be a mistake, the same sort of mistake Plato made, to >>> say the physical hypotenuse of a cardboard square is just an >>> approximation of he hypotenuse of the abstract unit square, I think it >>> would be much more accurate to say the hypotenuse of the abstract unit >>> square is just an approximation of the hypotenuse of a physical >>> cardboard square. Approximations are simpler than the real deal, and a >>> computer model of a hurricane is much simpler than a real physical >>> hurricane. >> >> >> *> Mistake? Plato could have been right. Why would you use something >> so crude as a cardboard square to test something so precise?* > > > Because no physicist has ever seen a mathematical hypotenuse, however they > have seen lines that connect diagonal corners on cardboard squares. > Mathematics is the language of physics but mathematics is not physics. > English is a language too but the English word "*cow*" cannot give milk. > > > Theories are only useful when they can make testable predictions, when >>> they start predicting infinities that robs them of their ability to do >>> that. The Planck scale Is the point where Quantum Mechanics stops being >>> useful, and the center of a Black Hole marks the point where General >>> Relativity stops being useful. What if anything goes on a scale smaller >>> than the Planck scale and at the center of black holes is unknown. >> >> >> >> >> >> *> I think that if two theories that have never been falsified >> both independently stop being useful in a place that cannot be >> observed, even in principle, then maybe it is a mistake to assume that >> anything goes on in that place at all.* > > > Something was certainly going on during the first few nanoseconds of the > Big Bang because it eventually produce the universe we see today, but we > don't know what was going on because at time things were very small and > very dense and very massive, and neither General Relativity or Quantum > Mechanics can say what happens in situations like that. But something sure > is hell was going on. We need to find a way to resolve the inherent > contradiction between Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity, but that's > not gonna happen until somebody finds a quantum theory of gravity. > > >> What exactly is it that people do that cuckoo clocks don't? There is nothing >>> mystical about a "decision", it was either made for a reason in which >>> case we call it a rational decision, or it was made for no reason in >>> which case we call it a irrational decision. >> >> >> *>Cuckoo clocks cannot split universes by chiming every possible hour >> at once for starters.* > > > Some cuckoo clocks just keep chiming continuously and won't stop until > they run out of energy, human beings would call such a thing a malfunction > but it's still just cause and effect; For one reason or another one part of > the clock is now different from what it was before (a break in the drive > wheel or whatever) and so it behaves differently than the it did before. In > one Everett universe the drive wheel broke and in another it did not. > > > >> >> * In other words, things that make decisions, always do so deliberately.** >> >> And a thing does something deliberately if it has decided to do so. >> And round and round we go. >> >> *> Not quite. All agents have a purpose when making decisions,* > > > And what is a purpose? The reason something is done. And what is a > reason? A cause. What comes after a cause? An effect . > > >> >>> So for example in nature, temperatures dropping precipitously could never >> directly cause the spontaneous combustion of fuel.* >> >> >> Not so, all that would be needed for that to happen would be a >> battery, a thermostat and a match head. >> >> >> *> The unlikely confluence of all those components speaks of purpose >> and intent. Both hallmarks of agency.* > > > I'm not sure exactly what you mean by the words purpose, intent or agency, but > whatever you mean by them do you think a Turing Machine would be incapable > of embodying those qualities? > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:23:06 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 12:23:06 -0400 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Ending up like this is my worst nightmare. I plan on doing my best to self exit if needed at that point assuming I make it that long. Of course, if I sign up for Alcor at some point, that's an additional wrinkle to smooth out. I'm sorry to hear about your aunt, Bill. On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 12:15 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Catastrophe? I can imagine that quite a few of the nursing home people > were glad to have a way off the planet. A silver lining for the > silver-headed. I had an aunt who lived to be 96 and who was blind for the > last 20 years. She kept wondering why she couldn't die. She would have > welcomed a virus like this one. bill w > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 10:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. >> >> >> >> The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days >> before they put the bar on there. >> >> >> >> That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the >> last 3.7 years. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard >> >> >> >> That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn?ta thought it >> would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. >> >> >> >> European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is >> happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps >> covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in >> those categories. Or? normal flu deaths are down because of extra >> precautions? Ideas? >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 16:25:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:25:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00ec01d68ab3$af20cdb0$0d626910$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] jarring change For a long time the pro basketballer Jerry Lucas had a book on memorization. If I were 50 years younger I would have every class buy it? bill w BillW, you made my day with that comment. Someone gave me the book you referenced, and without even looking it up, I can tell you some cool things about that book. It was given to me almost 50 years ago because I was in seventh grade at the time, so about 1971 or so. I read it and used some of the techniques. I remember some of the stuff in there: Jerry was a pro basketball guy and clearly very bright. He met a guy who was a memory-tricks performer named Harry Lorraine (as I recall, not looking it up.) On the cover of the paperback were the two authors, Jerry being about? mid 30s perhaps and Harry about mid 50s, hair graying, combed back. Jerry wrote about an odd habit he picked up in his childhood: he memorized words spelled in alphabetic order. Harry could toss him a word and he could give it back spelled alphabetically. Harry explained how he was able to memorize long strings of numbers, asking audience members their names, telephone numbers and such, then he would do his show, then at the end, walk around and greet them by name and recite the number. He explained how rote memorization is fine for stuff like the Scout Law, where it hasta be fast, but not so great for many other things such as names, whereby you can think of some characteristic of a person?s face and find a link to a mnemonic for remembering their name. I read much of the book on the way to a sax repair shop in Orlando Florida where we had my sax re-padded by a man named Mr. Digerolama whose shop was over on Alafaya Trail. All this was in 1971. In that astonishing book, Lorraine introduced me to a technique for making words with numbers, using a system where T is for 1, N is 2, M is 3, R is 4, L is 5 and so on. You can invent your own or use his. I used a version of his, and memorized a bunch of my friends? phone numbers and did some circus tricks with it. If one can still buy Lorraine and Lucas? The Memory Book, I can assure you, those techniques work. Were I a professor, I too would have the students buy that book and read the hell outta that thin volume. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 16:31:22 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:31:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00ec01d68ab3$af20cdb0$0d626910$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <00ec01d68ab3$af20cdb0$0d626910$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00f801d68ab4$7be43cb0$73acb610$@rainier66.com> Correction to previous? It occurred to me I wouldn?t have been going to Mr. Degirolama?s shop until later, about 1974. OK, 46 year old memories rather than 49 yrs ago, do pardon. Another comment about Lorraine and Lucas? techniques: mnemonics work for some people. They don?t work for others. I don?t know why, but they really work well for me: you hafta really be able to think outside the box to make up good ones. spike From: spike at rainier66.com From: extropy-chat > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] jarring change For a long time the pro basketballer Jerry Lucas had a book on memorization. If I were 50 years younger I would have every class buy it? bill w BillW, you made my day with that comment. Someone gave me the book you referenced, and without even looking it up, I can tell you some cool things about that book. It was given to me almost 50 years ago because I was in seventh grade at the time, so about 1971 or so. ?spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Mon Sep 14 16:40:44 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:40:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: >> I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become >> if it were the inter-language of people with no interest in the >> philosophy of Lojban. On 2020-9-14 08:06, Dan TheBookMan wrote: > How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural > languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines > of English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its > strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain > that? You can't; that's the point of the concept. My idea in a bit more detail. A Lojban-like language is developed to communicate with nonhumans, because the less you have in common the more you need to make explicit. It becomes the dominant language of a human-settled planet, which later loses contact, allowing dialects to drift and diverge. How quickly are the Lojban-like distinctive features lost? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:41:07 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 11:41:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I told Spike, so all of you might as well know: I was diagnosed with heart failure (according to what I read, it's not the congestive sort), and found that I had already had a heart attack some time in the past. I was put on Entresto and a beta blocker. The latter strongly affects my cognitive abilities, and both make me weak and tired even though I am doing nothing. If I cannot get the cardiologist to lower my pills I will do it anyway even if I am less safe by doing so. Quality is more important than just living longer, and I feel worse than I did before starting the pills. My back won't let me do much anyhow and if I cannot just sit and read psychology and other nonfiction and understand it, it is just not the life I want. Just sitting and waiting to die is not my thing. I too might exit, but my wife, my children etc. may suffer if I do, so I'll have to really take them into consideration when and if the time comes. I'll know more after Wednesday - first real meeting with the doctor (the one who gave me the pills, and told me nothing, retired). Don't you DARE feel sorry for me. I have had an extremely full and satisfying life, even with the medical problems. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:28 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Ending up like this is my worst nightmare. I plan on doing my best to > self exit if needed at that point assuming I make it that long. Of > course, if I sign up for Alcor at some point, that's an additional wrinkle > to smooth out. > > I'm sorry to hear about your aunt, Bill. > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 12:15 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Catastrophe? I can imagine that quite a few of the nursing home people >> were glad to have a way off the planet. A silver lining for the >> silver-headed. I had an aunt who lived to be 96 and who was blind for the >> last 20 years. She kept wondering why she couldn't die. She would have >> welcomed a virus like this one. bill w >> >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 10:22 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. >>> >>> >>> >>> The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days >>> before they put the bar on there. >>> >>> >>> >>> That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the >>> last 3.7 years. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard >>> >>> >>> >>> That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn?ta thought it >>> would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. >>> >>> >>> >>> European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is >>> happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps >>> covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in >>> those categories. Or? normal flu deaths are down because of extra >>> precautions? Ideas? >>> >>> >>> >>> spike >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:43:54 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 12:43:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:41 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I hate history because there were no theories presented to try to make > sense of the things we were supposed to memorize. I can remember ideas > just fine: names, dates, places, not so much. Huge waste of time for > something one can always look up. > You didn't have a good history teacher if there was no overarching theme to tie it all together. I love history as a complete hobby at this point, but a great history book (or educator) will tie it all together somehow through their particular lens. I will admit that I generally try to read histories written before 1960 (give or take) because I find anything done beyond that point frequently has an overt agenda behind it (and I don't mean that in the positive way I mean it above). I still read newer histories as well because they are frequently updated with the latest archaeological knowledge which may change things greatly, but it's very easy to see any bias in newer works. Of course, even the older works have their own biases but I generally find the quality in general much higher in terms of writing and framing. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 16:50:16 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 11:50:16 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00f801d68ab4$7be43cb0$73acb610$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <00ec01d68ab3$af20cdb0$0d626910$@rainier66.com> <00f801d68ab4$7be43cb0$73acb610$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: One trick was to make a list of things associated with other, odd, things. So say you have a grocery list: bread, eggs, and milk. You look around the room, imagine the milk sitting on the piano, the bread overhead on a fan blade, and the eggs rolling around on the floor. Then when you get to the store, you imagine your living room. (I chose those three things because it happened to me. I got to the store, recalled eggs, and called home. Later, thinking that I had a defective memory, stopped by the local health dept. A counselor gave me part of an IQ test, told me that I had the vocabulary of a superior adult, and said that while I was being told by Mama I was thinking of what baseball cards I was going to get at the store, and never did put those things into memory. BTW - many 'forgotten' things were never put into memory in the first place, but we think they were because we can remember other things from that time. Most things we experience don't get into long term memory. Harry Lorraine was on Johnny Carson. He went into the audience before the show. Everyone stood up, pronounced their name and sat down. When the show went live, he came on, went into the audience, had everyone stand and he pronounced their names, whereupon they sat down. He sat down everyone but one person, which I think was just for show, and finally came up with the name. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:42 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Correction to previous? > > > > It occurred to me I wouldn?t have been going to Mr. Degirolama?s shop > until later, about 1974. > > > > OK, 46 year old memories rather than 49 yrs ago, do pardon. > > > > Another comment about Lorraine and Lucas? techniques: mnemonics work for > some people. They don?t work for others. I don?t know why, but they > really work well for me: you hafta really be able to think outside the box > to make up good ones. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] jarring change > > > > For a long time the pro basketballer Jerry Lucas had a book on > memorization. If I were 50 years younger I would have every class buy it? > > > > bill w > > > > > > > > BillW, you made my day with that comment. > > > > Someone gave me the book you referenced, and without even looking it up, I > can tell you some cool things about that book. It was given to me almost > 50 years ago because I was in seventh grade at the time, so about 1971 or > so. > > ?spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 16:58:25 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:58:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00f801d68ab4$7be43cb0$73acb610$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <00ec01d68ab3$af20cdb0$0d626910$@rainier66.com> <00f801d68ab4$7be43cb0$73acb610$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <012401d68ab8$434f14c0$c9ed3e40$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] jarring change >?Correction to previous? It occurred to me I wouldn?t have been going to Mr. Degirolama?s shop until later, about 1974?.spike Explanation of previous: Harry Lorrayne (or Lorraine, not sure) was a performer/lecturer of sorts. If you read his description of his act, he did an early 1970s version of politically incorrect humor. Examples of politically incorrect humor would be a show from that era called All in the Family, where the main characters (Archie Bunker and Michael Stivik) played parodies of the far right hard-hat and the far left draft-dodger perennial college student. A more recent (perhaps the most recent) example would be Richard Fish from the Ally McBeal show: oh mercy that guy would get me rolling on the floor laughing. He would be in court getting his ass kicked because he was a terrible lawyer, everybody would be so politically correct, then Fish would make his closing argument in what looked like a hopeless case. The jury would be thinking and nodding, even the judge, pretty soon find the guy innocent and out ya go. Oh, Jack Nicholson in As Good As It Gets. Politically incorrect to the hilt. But I digress. The Harry Lorrayne lectures and show sounded like a lot of politically incorrect stuff that you just can?t do anymore: college students, forget it. Little old ladies would laugh and enjoy the show but college students would have their delicate sensibilities outraged and would be so offended. Back in the olden days, college students would laugh at anything. I don?t know how college students and little old church ladies somehow switched places in attitude. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 17:04:04 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:04:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <013001d68ab9$0d8ff790$28afe6b0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Sent: Monday, September 14, 2020 9:41 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] good news for a monday morning I told Spike, so all of you might as well know: I was diagnosed with heart failure (according to what I read, it's not the congestive sort), and found that I had already had a heart attack some time in the past. I was put on Entresto and a beta blocker. The latter strongly affects my cognitive abilities? Sheesh BillW, what a thing to post, in times as exciting as these: LIGO results coming in, we are about to realize big stuff from the Sturgis data, oh what a time to be alive. Do get your doctor to figure out why a beta blocker is messing with your cog abilities. They shouldn?t. A friend from work had a huge heart attack when he was in his mid 50s, killed a huge percentage of his heart muscle. They gave him beta blockers. He was still able to work. It seemed like he was all in there. Couldn?t move very fast, so we had to be patient when we went to lunch, but he was all still in there. Time for new meds, me lad! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 17:09:41 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:09:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <015601d68ab9$d61a50c0$824ef240$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] jarring change On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:41 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: I hate history because there were no theories presented to try to make sense of the things we were supposed to memorize. I can remember ideas just fine: names, dates, places, not so much. Huge waste of time for something one can always look up. >?You didn't have a good history teacher if there was no overarching theme to tie it all together. I love history as a complete hobby at this point, but a great history book (or educator) will tie it all together somehow through their particular lens. I will admit that I generally try to read histories written before 1960 (give or take) because I find anything done beyond that point frequently has an overt agenda behind it (and I don't mean that in the positive way I mean it above). I still read newer histories as well because they are frequently updated with the latest archaeological knowledge which may change things greatly, but it's very easy to see any bias in newer works. Of course, even the older works have their own biases but I generally find the quality in general much higher in terms of writing and framing? Dylan, check out Isaac Asimov?s take on history. He goes about it not politically but from the point of view of technology and science. It seems like a great approach: it doesn?t matter all that much which party or which country is winning the current battle but rather what scientific discoveries are made, what technology was developed and how did a particular country or culture embrace it or reject it, what was the result. In my view this is a most enlighted way to write about history. https://www.amazon.com/Asimovs-Chronology-World-History-Modern/dp/0062700367/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1 &keywords=Isaac+Asimov&qid=1600103325&s=books&sr=1-2 spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:00:05 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:00:05 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:40 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > >> I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become > >> if it were the inter-language of people with no interest in the > >> philosophy of Lojban. > > On 2020-9-14 08:06, Dan TheBookMan wrote: > > How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural > > languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines > > of English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its > > strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain > > that? > > You can't; that's the point of the concept. > > My idea in a bit more detail. A Lojban-like language is developed to > communicate with nonhumans, because the less you have in common the more > you need to make explicit. It becomes the dominant language of a > human-settled planet, which later loses contact, allowing dialects to > drift and diverge. How quickly are the Lojban-like distinctive features > lost? I thought you wanted to implement this to stop or slow down language change, but you just want to run the experiment to see what happens. That would be interesting. If current theories are correct, there might be some good guesses of what changes. For instance, the reduced vowel set (compared with English though not with Italian or Japanese) might evolve into a wider one or there might be a shift. All this would depend on how it's maintained. If they're using modern recording technology, then this process might slow -- no Great Vowel Shift. But if not, then it's easy to imagine as a whole or via different dialects, vowel shifts and widenings happening. At the higher levels, things like grammar... Well, if we look to Latin and its descendants, we see what might happen here: moving from a fairly free sentence order with inflexions carrying much grammatical duty to inflexions being lost and sentence order tightening down like in French. Of course, one of the drivers here was likely people who didn't speak Latin learning Latin as adults and then their children hearing parents' use and copying that, maybe unlearning 'bad' habits later on, but some of them sticking. In the scenario you envisage, it would matter if the people were adult learners and knew other languages. (I was/am working on a story world something like that -- though not with Lojban but with human languages even ancient ones to see how they'd play out. For instance, a world at a low tech level (EBA or LSA) with human settlements spread out with some using Latin, some using Nahuatl, some using other languages, and limited contact between the groups for hundreds of years and starting out with no writing -- enough time for many human generations to pass so presumably much language evolution. I don't want to go into too much detail, but it's an idea I've been toying with for years. I was working off the notion that the settlers were 'clean-slated' -- started out knowing only Latin or Nahuatl, etc. and not that they used Latin, etc. as a sort of prestige tongue or trade language but spoke other languages too.) By the way, Ian Watson's first novel (_The Embedding_ (1973)) dealt with trying to impose a language on children from the start. I read it around the turn of the millenium, so I forget the deets now. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From sparge at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:04:27 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:04:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 12:54 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Don't you DARE feel sorry for me. I have had an extremely full and > satisfying life, even with the medical problems. > No pity; just hope you get your meds sorted out and get your quality of life back. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:07:48 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:07:48 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:10 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:51 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: >> > I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it >> > were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy of >> > Lojban. >> >> How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural >> languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines of >> English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its >> strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain that? > > > And if it never becomes "free range", is there any realistic expectation it would grow beyond maybe a few thousand speakers at most? People making the language their own seems necessary for the language to gain any significant spread. Ex hyposthesi: was proposing that it would become free range, no? If it doesn't, then it's easier to maintain for obvious reasons, no? It's kind of like someone was asking 'What if we used giant spray mister towers in strategic locations to control the smoke spreading around the Western US?' and you responded with 'And if we didn't?' :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:14:07 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:14:07 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:02 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > Just a thought: at the expensive universities it would be worth it a lot more if the world's greatest professors would actually teach classes, even at the intro level. But no, TAs do all that or Assistant Profs. Are the greatest teachers at Cal Tech or Yale etc.? Very likely yes - but they don't teach - just a few, very few grad students, and those mostly because they help with the big prof's research program. I've heard that idea many times before. (In fact, I was a TA in school.:) Since the students are mostly there, if Caplan is right, for status reasons, maybe it wouldn't. If most are mainly getting a degree to improve their salary or status in society, then the content kind of becomes secondary and attempts to change this miss the mark. So maybe it's best that professors stick to research and a small body of really interested students/academics and let others do the actual teaching of the rest, no? (Actually, Caplan seems to want to move away from having the degree used as a signaling device, since it's a huge waste of time and effort. What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's expected?) Regards, Dan From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:21:08 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:21:08 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 4:10 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Do you think, John, that kids cannot define the words they use? > I couldn't. I remember as a kid having great difficulty providing a definition to common words that would satisfy my English teacher even though I used those words many times a day. I kept giving her instances of the word in use and she kept saying those were just examples and she wanted definitions. > I am peculiar, as we all know. > Yes, that must be hard, thank goodness there's nothing strange about me. Mr.Normal they call me, for some reason they're always laughing when they say that, I'm not sure why but I guess they're just in a joyous mood. > I spent a good deal of my life, and still a part of it, with my nose in > a dictionary, preferably a big one - right now I have three large tomes of > the OED > The trouble is every single one of the definitions in the OED is made of words, and every one of those words have definitions that are also in the OED, and every one of those definitions are also made of words.... and round and round it goes. The only reason language is not just circular nonsense is because of physical examples not definitions. A parent points to a tall thing with lots of green stuff on top and says "tree", and children get the idea. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:22:03 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:22:03 +0000 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. > > > > The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days > before they put the bar on there. > > > > That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the > last 3.7 years. > > > > > > > > https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard > > > > That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn?ta thought it > would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. > > > > European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is > happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps > covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in > those categories. Or? normal flu deaths are down because of extra > precautions? Ideas? > > > > spike > Presuming there aren't any updates that overturn this, might this not be because of reduced activities overall (things like lethal accidents that happen at work didn't happen because people were either not working, working less, or working from home) and because of overall lower pathogen transmission rates (precautions for COVID-19 almost certainly lower the transmission of most pathogens). The latter fits with your last idea. If your idea is that COVID has already done its worst -- killed off the vulnerable (maybe not all of them but a good chunk) -- we should see lower rates going forward regardless of precautions, no? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:29:22 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 13:29:22 -0500 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's expected?) dan If you are in higher education, a Ph. D. (or some other doctorate) is a must unless you are thinking of teaching at a junior/community college or high school. A Master's in psych, for example, is a booby prize for those who got in as a first year student, but did not pass the tests for entrance to the doctoral program, given at the end of the first year.. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 1:18 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:02 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > > Just a thought: at the expensive universities it would be worth it a > lot more if the world's greatest professors would actually teach classes, > even at the intro level. But no, TAs do all that or Assistant Profs. Are > the greatest teachers at Cal Tech or Yale etc.? Very likely yes - but they > don't teach - just a few, very few grad students, and those mostly because > they help with the big prof's research program. > > I've heard that idea many times before. (In fact, I was a TA in > school.:) Since the students are mostly there, if Caplan is right, for > status reasons, maybe it wouldn't. If most are mainly getting a degree > to improve their salary or status in society, then the content kind of > becomes secondary and attempts to change this miss the mark. So maybe > it's best that professors stick to research and a small body of really > interested students/academics and let others do the actual teaching of > the rest, no? (Actually, Caplan seems to want to move away from having > the degree used as a signaling device, since it's a huge waste of time > and effort. What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or > Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's > expected?) > > Regards, > > Dan > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:35:31 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 13:35:31 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining abstractions such as love. You look up love and get affection, caring, and so on -synonyms. That's why in psych we use operational definitions: words, such as IQ, are defined in terms of the operations used to measure them - an IQ test. The way out of the circularity is to establish correlations between the IQ score and meaningful other things such as school grades, among many others. So, gimme an example of love. Is 'making love' an example of love? How about getting married? Gimme one. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 1:24 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 4:10 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Do you think, John, that kids cannot define the words they use? >> > > I couldn't. I remember as a kid having great difficulty providing a > definition to common words that would satisfy my English teacher even > though I used those words many times a day. I kept giving her instances > of the word in use and she kept saying those were just examples and she > wanted definitions. > > > I am peculiar, as we all know. >> > > Yes, that must be hard, thank goodness there's nothing strange about me. > Mr.Normal they call me, for some reason they're always laughing when they > say that, I'm not sure why but I guess they're just in a joyous mood. > > > I spent a good deal of my life, and still a part of it, with my nose >> in a dictionary, preferably a big one - right now I have three large tomes >> of the OED >> > > The trouble is every single one of the definitions in the OED is made of > words, and every one of those words have definitions that are also in the > OED, and every one of those definitions are also made of words.... and > round and round it goes. The only reason language is not just circular > nonsense is because of physical examples not definitions. A parent points > to a tall thing with lots of green stuff on top and says "tree", and > children get the idea. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:42:10 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:42:10 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:59 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:41 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> I hate history because there were no theories presented to try to make sense of the things we were supposed to memorize. I can remember ideas just fine: names, dates, places, not so much. Huge waste of time for something one can always look up. > > > You didn't have a good history teacher if there was no overarching theme to tie it all together. I love history as a complete hobby at this point, but a great history book (or educator) will tie it all together somehow through their particular lens. I will admit that I generally try to read histories written before 1960 (give or take) because I find anything done beyond that point frequently has an overt agenda behind it (and I don't mean that in the positive way I mean it above). I still read newer histories as well because they are frequently updated with the latest archaeological knowledge which may change things greatly, but it's very easy to see any bias in newer works. Of course, even the older works have their own biases but I generally find the quality in general much higher in terms of writing and framing. With your comment on how history -- historiography -- gets updated, I recall a friend of mine wondering why after reading Thucydides I'd bother to read Donald Kagan's multi-volumed treatment of the same war. He wasn't aware of the 'recent' archaeology (Kagan started writing this work in 1969; I started reading it in the late 1990s*) that'd been done -- much less centuries of debate on Thucydides and other ancient sources. I bring up Thucydides because he's often seen as modern in the sense that he tries to explain events by broad causes: Why did Athens and Sparta clash? Because they were bound to clash because both wanted to be hegemons, etc. He's actually fairly overt about this and sees self-interest in all undertakings. Yet many people treat him as if he didn't have an agenda. (One has to be especially careful with ancients too because we often lack other sources, especially rival contemporaries, writing history was something carried out by very few, and what survives isn't a random sample but faces the biases of selection between now and then. Probably just about every history written in the modern period will survive. Most ancient histories haven't.) As for your particular claim, yeah, having a broad theme to tie things together makes for a memorable and enjoyable account. But then the problem is the historiography is biased by that criterion for selection, no? (Grade school history in my experience often did that: teaching a few broad things that happened: civilization rose and spread (Mesopotamia to Rome), there were dark ages (fall of Rome, Vikings, Mongols, the Black Death), then a resurgence (Renaissance, Reformation, Columbus, Enlightenment) and here we are was the basic thing I was taught. It's kind of understandable: to keep kids' attention and the teachers probably didn't know more than that anyhow.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:48:59 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 11:48:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:13 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:10 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:51 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood > wrote: > >> > I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it > >> > were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy > of > >> > Lojban. > >> > >> How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural > >> languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines of > >> English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its > >> strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain that? > > > > > > And if it never becomes "free range", is there any realistic expectation > it would grow beyond maybe a few thousand speakers at most? People making > the language their own seems necessary for the language to gain any > significant spread. > > Ex hyposthesi: was proposing that it would become free range, no? If > it doesn't, then it's easier to maintain for obvious reasons, no? It's > kind of like someone was asking 'What if we used giant spray mister > towers in strategic locations to control the smoke spreading around > the Western US?' and you responded with 'And if we didn't?' :) > Nah, I was just emphasizing your point. Some might say that it must never become free range so it can be controlled - but if it never does, then it will never become more than a tiny, near-universally irrelevant historical footnote. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:50:08 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:50:08 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:36 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or > Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's > expected?) dan > > If you are in higher education, a Ph. D. (or some other doctorate) is a must unless you are thinking of teaching at a junior/community college or high school. A Master's in psych, for example, is a booby prize for those who got in as a first year student, but did not pass the tests for entrance to the doctoral program, given at the end of the first year.. bill w Yet there the Masters has become the new high school diploma now. My question was rhetorical. Very few jobs and careers considered via skills and experience need a college degree. Writing code even at an expert level is probably better served by learning to write code and do general problem solving along with much hands on work in the field -- not by fulfilling a Masters. Yet if there's a queue of a hundred resumes and you're hiring, it helps to weed out the folks without degrees or with only a Bachelors. Why? Well, if Caplan's right, it's because you know those folks are willing to put in lots of effort on long term projects. But that's a wasteful signal. The job doesn't really require it and it's merely being used to filter folks. (In the same way, if you're hiring someone to be a barista, do they really need a high school diploma? They need to know grade school math and how to work around a coffee machine and clean up. The high school diploma doesn't really improve on that. Yet the high school dropout is unlikely to get the job.) It'd be interesting to know what you make of Caplan's work here rather than filter it all through me. If you're interested, especially since you're and avid reader, see: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691174655/the-case-against-education Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:55:02 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:55:02 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:43 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining abstractions such as love. You look up love and get affection, caring, and so on -synonyms. That's why in psych we use operational definitions: words, such as IQ, are defined in terms of the operations used to measure them - an IQ test. The way out of the circularity is to establish correlations between the IQ score and meaningful other things such as school grades, among many others. > > So, gimme an example of love. Is 'making love' an example of love? How about getting married? Gimme one. > > bill w I think less abstract everyday words are often very hard to define. Think of 'chair' or 'shoe.' They're not very abstract like 'love' or 'democracy.' Do you have ready definitions of those? I'm sure anyone can come up with a working definition and make it better, but the initiation work would be hard. Imagine a child who uses these words correctly by your lights and asking them to define them -- in a standard dictionary way or in the oft preferred species-genus fashion. They'd probably have a hard time, no? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 18:57:07 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:57:07 +0000 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:07 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 12:54 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Don't you DARE feel sorry for me. I have had an extremely full and satisfying life, even with the medical problems. > > > No pity; just hope you get your meds sorted out and get your quality of life back. Same here. Of course, it's not that easy to command emotions. I mean, if I felt sorry for someone, it's not like I can simply will myself not feel that. I might will myself to not reveal what I felt. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:14:23 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 19:14:23 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Life on Mars -- er, Venus Message-ID: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2652GO Okay, probably abiotic in origin, but who knows? The real kicker would be discovering surface life on Venus. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:23:53 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 19:23:53 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:59 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 11:13 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:10 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > >> > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:51 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 8:12 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: >> >> > I have a germ of an idea for a conlang: what Lojban would become if it >> >> > were the inter-language of people with no interest in the philosophy of >> >> > Lojban. >> >> >> >> How would it avoid the usual language change that faces natural >> >> languages, especially if it became a lingua franca along the lines of >> >> English today? A lot of it would depend on enforcement of its >> >> strictures. Once it becomes 'free range,' how would you maintain that? >> > >> > >> > And if it never becomes "free range", is there any realistic expectation it would grow beyond maybe a few thousand speakers at most? People making the language their own seems necessary for the language to gain any significant spread. >> >> Ex hyposthesi: was proposing that it would become free range, no? If >> it doesn't, then it's easier to maintain for obvious reasons, no? It's >> kind of like someone was asking 'What if we used giant spray mister >> towers in strategic locations to control the smoke spreading around >> the Western US?' and you responded with 'And if we didn't?' :) > > > Nah, I was just emphasizing your point. Some might say that it must never become free range so it can be controlled - but if it never does, then it will never become more than a tiny, near-universally irrelevant historical footnote. I think we're in violent agreement on that. :) By the way, some of you might like _Language Unlimited: The Science Behind Our Most Creative Power_ by David Adger. He brings up a lot of interesting stuff on conlangs. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:25:27 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:25:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:43 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining > abstractions such as love. > Forget abstractions, without physical examples even something as concrete as well ..."concrete" would have no meaning. Without physical examples ET could not get any useful information out of the OED, It would just be one big exercise in useless circularity. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:39:16 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:39:16 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: So you, John, admit that you have no idea how to define abstractions. Is that right? You don't use a dictionary, you can't tell anyone what love is because the physical examples I sent won't work, I suppose? bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:32 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:43 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining >> abstractions such as love. >> > > Forget abstractions, without physical examples even something as concrete > as well ..."concrete" would have no meaning. Without physical examples ET > could not get any useful information out of the OED, It would just be one > big exercise in useless circularity. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:42:35 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:42:35 -0500 Subject: [ExI] history Message-ID: Just about the only person I have read who was interesting was Jacques Barzun, esp. From Dawn to Decadence. Wonderful book - cultural history. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:45:24 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 13:45:24 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: It is trivial to show that since a word in isolation is completely meaningless, and adding another meaningless word won't help, we can show by induction over the dictionary that language acquisition is impossible, and that therefore this email is completely absurd. On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 1:40 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > So you, John, admit that you have no idea how to define abstractions. Is > that right? You don't use a dictionary, you can't tell anyone what love is > because the physical examples I sent won't work, I suppose? bill w > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:32 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:43 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >> > I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining >>> abstractions such as love. >>> >> >> Forget abstractions, without physical examples even something as concrete >> as well ..."concrete" would have no meaning. Without physical examples ET >> could not get any useful information out of the OED, It would just be one >> big exercise in useless circularity. >> >> John K Clark >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 14 19:53:24 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 12:53:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007501d68ad0$b566eb60$2034c220$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat ubject: Re: [ExI] good news for a monday morning On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: This is the CDC data for all US deaths from all causes. The most recent bar is for the week ending 29 August. They give 10 days before they put the bar on there. That last week of August is lowest number of deaths in any week in the last 3.7 years. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard That big Sturgis rally apparently lowered it, but I wouldn?ta thought it would lower it this much: only one part in 700 can be explained that way. European nations should have something analogous to this, ja? What is happening over there? We know of the nursing home catastrophe: perhaps covid slew the oldest and sickest, and now there are fewer left alive in those categories. Or? normal flu deaths are down because of extra precautions? Ideas? spike >?Presuming there aren't any updates that overturn this, might this not be because of reduced activities overall (things like lethal accidents that happen at work didn't happen because people were either not working, working less, or working from home) and because of overall lower pathogen transmission rates (precautions for COVID-19 almost certainly lower the transmission of most pathogens). The latter fits with your last idea. >?If your idea is that COVID has already done its worst -- killed off the vulnerable (maybe not all of them but a good chunk) -- we should see lower rates going forward regardless of precautions, no? Regards, Dan Hi Dan, >From what I understand, they report the results ten days after the week finishes, so we are looking at the week ending Saturday 29 August. End days after that would be about 4 October. I don?t know for sure which day they posted that data, but it didn?t change since yesterday, staying with the 46,079. A new predicted bar for the week ending Saturday 5 September should be going up soon, being as that 10 day period ends today. Tomorrow they will post it perhaps? Regarding the notion of reduced activities, one of the activities more reduced than anything is going to the doctor. Another reduced activity is will to live. Last week my neighbor?s brother in law decided to call it day. His sister is here now. Nothing to say really, just sit with them and cry. He was my friend too: retired fireman, rode motorcycles, hell of a good guy. Sigh. I hafta wonder if constantly focusing on the bad in our times is really driving a lot of excess mortality. If so, well, I will do what I have always done best: look for the positive in any bad situation. Feel free to join in. And while you are doing that? note that the Sturgis bikers continue to not die. The epidemiology community had all those shrieky warning articles beforehand, well OK then, those are the safest kind of articles to write. But what if? those grim predictions are wrong? I feel it is their moral obligation to do a bit more than harrumph, OK on to other matters now, ignore the new data. The new data is telling us something important, and the epidemiology community is such a herd of crickets the economists step up and offer us absurd theories to fill the vacuum. SHEESH, this is GOOD news these bikers keep not dying. Have we grown afraid of good news now? Why? I?m not afraid of good news! I like good news. Good news is good for us: it improves our collective morale, and in this case just might point out a way to reduce our vulnerability to the virus. Sooo? where are the epidemiologists please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 19:55:58 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:55:58 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: Absurd - a word meaning 'away from the normal'. I suggest that there is nothing whatsoever normal about anything that goes on in this chat group. bill w On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:53 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > It is trivial to show that since a word in isolation is completely > meaningless, and adding another meaningless word won't help, we can show by > induction over the dictionary that language acquisition is impossible, and > that therefore this email is completely absurd. > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 1:40 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> So you, John, admit that you have no idea how to define abstractions. Is >> that right? You don't use a dictionary, you can't tell anyone what love is >> because the physical examples I sent won't work, I suppose? bill w >> >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:32 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 2:43 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>> > I am not a linguist, but of course there is a problem defining >>>> abstractions such as love. >>>> >>> >>> Forget abstractions, without physical examples even something as >>> concrete as well ..."concrete" would have no meaning. Without physical >>> examples ET could not get any useful information out of the OED, It would >>> just be one big exercise in useless circularity. >>> >>> John K Clark >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 14 20:24:35 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 16:24:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: <007501d68ad0$b566eb60$2034c220$@rainier66.com> References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> <007501d68ad0$b566eb60$2034c220$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Have we grown afraid of good news now? Why? I?m not afraid of good > news! I like good news. Good news is good for us: it improves our > collective morale, and in this case just might point out a way to reduce > our vulnerability to the virus. Sooo? where are the epidemiologists please? > > > Good news doesn't create clicks or align with the narrative being used to exert control over populations lately. People are waking up though, and many of them are not going to put up with continued lockdowns. That is also good news! I'm going to make John's head explode posting this, but take a look at what happened in Montreal over the weekend due to continued lockdowns: https://twitter.com/i/status/1304888589373902848 TL;DR: 10s of thousands of French Canadians protesting lockdowns chanting USA and carrying Trump 2020 signs in Canada! As I've mentioned many times before, Trump is a symptom of a much larger problem. I'll leave it to the reader to figure out what the problem is, but it's not racism. https://youtu.be/0zXajYDnprQ A high ranking Irish doctor has also made shockwaves by being bold enough to declare that the Emperor wears no clothes: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701 I'll close with an interesting (and positive) hypothesis around mask use: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Mon Sep 14 21:05:11 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 17:05:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <4C183487-C8D0-418E-AC42-AF21B56D508B@alumni.virginia.edu> The chart is deaths. We know deaths are lagged. About 2 month is what it looks like to me. Did anyone see this not-so-good news? I fear we may be going back up on that chart again soon. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/516269-who-reports-highest-daily-increase-in-covid-19-cases?amp > On Sep 14, 2020, at 4:25 PM, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > >> >> >> Have we grown afraid of good news now? Why? I?m not afraid of good news! I like good news. Good news is good for us: it improves our collective morale, and in this case just might point out a way to reduce our vulnerability to the virus. Sooo? where are the epidemiologists please? >> >> >> > > Good news doesn't create clicks or align with the narrative being used to exert control over populations lately. People are waking up though, and many of them are not going to put up with continued lockdowns. That is also good news! > > I'm going to make John's head explode posting this, but take a look at what happened in Montreal over the weekend due to continued lockdowns: > https://twitter.com/i/status/1304888589373902848 > > TL;DR: 10s of thousands of French Canadians protesting lockdowns chanting USA and carrying Trump 2020 signs in Canada! As I've mentioned many times before, Trump is a symptom of a much larger problem. I'll leave it to the reader to figure out what the problem is, but it's not racism. > > https://youtu.be/0zXajYDnprQ > > A high ranking Irish doctor has also made shockwaves by being bold enough to declare that the Emperor wears no clothes: > https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701 > > I'll close with an interesting (and positive) hypothesis around mask use: > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/ > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hibbard at wisc.edu Mon Sep 14 23:46:44 2020 From: hibbard at wisc.edu (Bill Hibbard) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:46:44 -0500 (CDT) Subject: [ExI] history Message-ID: > Just about the only person I have read who was interesting was Jacques > Barzun, esp. From Dawn to Decadence. Wonderful book - cultural history. It was my good fortune to be in Madison, WI while Harvey Goldberg was lecturing on European social history. I recall it took five or six semesters to cycle through the whole history, then he'd start over at the beginning. Crowds of folks not registered for his courses would come to listen. He was a gay, Jewish Marxist passionately prosecuting all the crimes and absurdities of European history. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvey_Goldberg From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 00:00:19 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 00:00:19 +0000 Subject: [ExI] history In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 7:48 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > > Just about the only person I have read who was interesting was Jacques Barzun, esp. From Dawn to Decadence. Wonderful book - cultural history. bill w Despite his stature and many people I respect praising him, I've only read a tiny amount of Barzun and the length of that book kind of put me off. I'll have to give it another try. My excuse is the usual one: so much else to read. :) Maybe you'd be interested in large scale systems historians like William H. McNeill, especially his _The Rise of the West_ and _Plagues and Peoples_. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 00:16:38 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 00:16:38 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <023801d68a18$96f057b0$c4d10710$@rainier66.com> <025501d68a2a$edd18880$c9749980$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 4:19 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 8:50 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> I'm curious why the comparison is always with the Roman _Empire_ and not with the Roman _Republic_. And the Roman Empire lasted quite a long time, especially if you consider the Eastern part survived long after Rome "fell." (It's hard to draw a line too of when exactly the Eastern part ended. Surely, long before Constantinople fell, but still long after the city of Rome fell to outside rulers.) > > > It just so happens I have a healthy obsession with ancient history with a focus on the Romans. It's all as a layperson, but I've been obsessed with that time period (and the barbarian successors in the West) since I took four years of Latin in high school. > > Anyways, any comparisons between the US and any part of Rome are very tenuous at best IMO. I'm not even sure they really rhyme, let alone repeat. That said I picked the Empire versus the Republic because of the expansive umbrella of the US's influence in the world from WW II forward. > > As far as the fall of the actual Roman Empire, the Western half arguably fell not with a bang but a whimper in 476 Anno Domini under the inauspicious reign of the boy emperor Romulus Augustulus. It was already coming apart at the seams long before him though. Once the Praetorian Guard abandoned their sacred duties and started both assassinating and appointing emperors > > The Eastern Roman Empire arguably was finished somewhat ironically at the hands of the the West during the 4th Crusade. Yes, it took the Turks and a very large cannon a few hundred years later to bring down the actual Theodosian walls, but the East never really recovered from the damage done during the 4th Crusade. The Roman Republic, though, had an expansive influence too. Yes, the Empire reached further, but the Republic grew explosively going from a city-state to really an empire that was only a bit more extended under the actual Empire (Egypt, Britain, a bit more of Western North Africa, and eventually Dacia). The Republic when it started to intervene in the Eastern Mediterranean seemed to be doing what the US did during the late 20th century in Europe (and the world, I guess) or the 19th and early 20th century in Latin America: playing hegemon and backing sides in all local conflicts. Of course, the US from its early days already having imperial ambitions and those played out in North America first, though they were always rhetorically disguised -- hence the myth of an immaculate conception of the US. (We can start even earlier with the Ohio country: British North Americans having designs on the region while they were still part of the British Empire and that project instigating the Seven Years War.) And the US now is more like the Late Roman Republic than like the Roman Empire in many more respects, don't you think? Yes, it's still a loose and abused comparison. (I see many alt-right types online trying to ask what stage of the Roman Empire is the US at now -- as if they're mapping the course of a disease they can play doctor with. Of course, it's true, too, that the Roman Republic and Empire were loaded with conservatives who saw decadence and decline in anything that moved away from supposed Roman traditions and virtues. That's what conservatives do though: see anything new or different as a threat that will bring on a fatal decline.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 01:34:23 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2020 18:34:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cool, we're back to unhealthy! Message-ID: <00a101d68b00$579bfdb0$06d3f910$@rainier66.com> Well I saw a half-assed shadow out there a few minutes ago. The air has turned unhealthy, which is a big improvement. By tomorrow we should be back to the clear air again. Life is gooood! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 15 07:14:05 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 00:14:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> <70a9297e-e436-1084-cde6-436d32fe43ad@pobox.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-14 11:48, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > Nah, I was just emphasizing your point.? Some might say that it must > never become free range so it can be controlled - but if it never does, > then it will never become more than a tiny, near-universally irrelevant > historical footnote. Volap?k collapsed partly because its creator would not let go and allow the users to make improvements; as well as because Esperanto, which appeared a few years later, is much easier. (Doktoro Esperanto did let go, though his works still mostly define the standard.) Andrew Joseph Galambos is more obscure than he might be because of his extreme view of intellectual property: if I understand right, a condition of attending his talks was a NDA that, in effect, prohibited his acolytes to proselytize. James Cooke Brown invented Loglan and copyrighted its lexicon so that he could control the language. A dissident faction made a new lexicon, generating all new words, and their version (Lojban) eclipsed the original. Other examples? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 10:40:01 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 06:40:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research Message-ID: The US National Institute Of Health recommended in favor of 14 research projects involving fetal tissue after scientific and ethical reviews. However in 2019 on presidential orders a new 15 member board was created to impose an extra layer of ethical review on such matters. At least 10 of the 15 members have publicly expressed their opposition to any form of abortion. Last week this new panel rejected 13 of the 14 research proposals. There is no appeal. Trump board rejects most human fetal tissue research for ethical reasons John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 11:03:39 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 07:03:39 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:53 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> It is trivial to show that since a word in isolation is completely > meaningless, and adding another meaningless word won't help, we can show by > induction over the dictionary that language acquisition is impossible, and > that therefore this email is completely absurd.* > As I said before, email and language in general would indeed be absurd if all we had was definitions and dictionaries, but human beings have been using language long long before dictionarys existed because they had something far better, physical examples of those words. John K Clark > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 11:15:27 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 07:15:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Free will was: Everett worlds In-Reply-To: References: <20200912213448.Horde.d0ucJDQM7JO4lQrx8zf2JWG@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:41 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > So you, John, admit that you have no idea how to define abstractions. Is > that right? You don't use a dictionary, you can't tell anyone what love is > because the physical examples I sent won't work, I suppose? bill w > It's not just nouns that have physical examples, you can have physical examples of adjectives and adverbs too. And that's a good thing, otherwise there would be no adjectives or adverbs in human language. If a woman and I are kissing each other and one of us says the word "love" the other one will get the idea, and the channel of communication would be far clearer than what even the best poet could achieve. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 12:07:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 05:07:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research >?The US National Institute Of Health recommended in favor of 14 research projects involving fetal tissue after scientific and ethical reviews. ? John K Clark So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you have to play by government rules. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 12:22:30 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:22:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:36 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or > > Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's > > expected?) dan > > > > If you are in higher education, a Ph. D. (or some other doctorate) is a > must unless you are thinking of teaching at a junior/community college or > high school. A Master's in psych, for example, is a booby prize for those > who got in as a first year student, but did not pass the tests for entrance > to the doctoral program, given at the end of the first year.. bill w > > Yet there the Masters has become the new high school diploma now. My > question was rhetorical. Very few jobs and careers considered via > skills and experience need a college degree. Rhetorical or not, I'll answer it: my daughter is a "Licensed Professional Counselor with Mental Health Service Provider designation" < https://www.mentalhealthcounselorlicense.com/license/mental-health-counselor-tennessee.html> which requires "a graduate program with a counseling major". She has a Master of Education in Mental Health Counseling. Writing code even at an > expert level is probably better served by learning to write code and > do general problem solving along with much hands on work in the field > -- not by fulfilling a Masters. Absolutely agree. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 12:27:09 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:27:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *> So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you have > to play by gove*rnment rules. > Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 14:23:26 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 09:23:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] a sad story Message-ID: >From Premium This is True *It?s Like It?s Contagious or Something:* In July, all 60 residents of the Three Rivers Healthcare Center, a nursing home in Norwich, Conn., were tested for Covid-19. The virus has torn through most nursing homes in the state, but all 60 at Three Rivers came back negative. The day after the test results came in, nurse Mary A. Ciezynski returned from vacation, and came to work even though she wasn?t feeling well ? and a supervisor said she had to remind her ?repeatedly? to wear a mask, as required by state regulations and Three Rivers? protocols. Sure enough, she later tested positive for Covid and at least 22 residents and 6 of the staff are also infected, including Ciezynski?s mother, and at least four residents have died, including Ciezynski?s mother. Mairead Painter, the state?s Long Term Care Ombudsman, has called for a criminal investigation, since ?I do feel that this clearly rises to the level of an elderly abuse issue.? (RC/Hartford Courant) *...Prison for covidiots? That?s a good start.* -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 14:44:30 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:44:30 -0600 Subject: [ExI] a sad story In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The Hartford Courant reporter, Dave Altimari, is despicable [and quite probably in violation of HIPAA] for doxxing the nurse without a trial, or even a criminal investigation. Probably figures he's speaking truth to power or some bullsh*t, instead of gleefully taking a tragic situation and making it just a little worse. [It is of note that none of the adjacent government agencies involved released her name. *sshat did that all on his own.] Related Simpsons: Kent Brockman : [Rounding out a news story on Homer's sexual harassment scandal] Now, here are some results from our phone-in poll: 95% of people believe Homer Simpson is guilty. Of course, this is just a television poll which is not legally binding. Unless proposition 304 passes, and we all pray it will. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:25 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > From Premium This is True > > *It?s Like It?s Contagious or Something:* In July, all 60 residents of > the Three Rivers Healthcare Center, a nursing home in Norwich, Conn., were > tested for Covid-19. The virus has torn through most nursing homes in the > state, but all 60 at Three Rivers came back negative. The day after the > test results came in, nurse Mary A. Ciezynski returned from vacation, and > came to work even though she wasn?t feeling well ? and a supervisor said > she had to remind her ?repeatedly? to wear a mask, as required by state > regulations and Three Rivers? protocols. Sure enough, she later tested > positive for Covid and at least 22 residents and 6 of the staff are also > infected, including Ciezynski?s mother, and at least four residents have > died, including Ciezynski?s mother. Mairead Painter, the state?s Long Term > Care Ombudsman, has called for a criminal investigation, since ?I do feel > that this clearly rises to the level of an elderly abuse issue.? > (RC/Hartford Courant) *...Prison for covidiots? That?s a good start.* > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 15 15:24:19 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:24:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <4ec3d136-7019-4bdb-a594-018b1d2ee9d9@pobox.com> > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones wrote: > So have this funded privately.? If you accept government money > you have to play by government rules. On 2020-9-15 05:27, John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration > could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? Also, "wear a mask" is defending the actions of the virus. Spike's advice is not defending the action, it's pointing out that your plans are at risk whenever they depend on state funding because state policy can be mercurial. I forget who observed that central "planning" means LESS planning over all because it makes the private sector less able to plan securely. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 15:40:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:40:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> From: John Clark Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: Gregory Jones Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you have to play by government rules. >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? John K Clark John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what government dictates. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 16:24:28 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:24:28 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what government dictates. spike Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* John Clark > *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Cc:* Gregory Jones > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research > > > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > *> **So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you > have to play by gove*rnment rules. > > > > >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration > could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? > > > > John K Clark > > > > > > > > John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take > government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in > that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the > comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If > you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. > > > > Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we don?t > want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is going > to support something they consider morally abhorrent. > > > > So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what > government dictates. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 16:44:22 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 12:44:22 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:25 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what > government dictates. > > > > spike > > > Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> *From:* John Clark >> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM >> *To:* ExI chat list >> *Cc:* Gregory Jones >> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research >> >> >> >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >> >> >> *> **So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you >> have to play by gove*rnment rules. >> >> >> >> >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration >> could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? >> >> >> >> John K Clark >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take >> government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in >> that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the >> comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If >> you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. >> >> >> >> Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we >> don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is >> going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. >> >> >> >> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >> government dictates. >> >> >> >> spike >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 16:49:36 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 12:49:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:46 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money > for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at > the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why > you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. > Where do I sign up to opt out of all government-sponsored murder? -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 16:55:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 09:55:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what government dictates. spike Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w Of course. The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund. It cannot say what one can do with one?s own donated embryo. There is no federal law covering that, and there cannot be, even if congress wanted to do something like that, because Amendment 4 would prevent and preclude any possible enforcement. This looks like a slam dunk. We have billions of donated embryos already created, frozen, in the hands of private organizations, such as fertility clinics where the bio-parents used the therapy successfully, don?t want any more children and have given the facility permission to destroy or use the embryos. How easy is that? Why do we need federal funding? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 16:55:37 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 12:55:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Good luck with that one! I can't even opt out of social justice being taught under the auspices of the non-political SPLC/BLM in my daughter's public school that my taxes are going towards. Let me know if you figure it out though. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 12:51 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:46 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money >> for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at >> the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why >> you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. >> > > Where do I sign up to opt out of all government-sponsored murder? > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 16:58:10 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:58:10 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Dylan, here is my position: When an embryo attaches itself to the uterine wall, it has a good chance of surviving the 39 weeks. To wash it out is to stop a human life. No, not a potential life, a life. So I am opposed to it except for protecting the mother's health. However, I support no laws, I support Roe v Wade, and I don't want anyone to interfere with a human's sex life in any way at all. I am a libertarian. I do think that using abortion as a birth control method is highly immoral. I personally know the operator of the only abortion clinic in Mississippi, a former student of mine, . She too, thinks multiple abortions are immoral, though she will not stop letting them happen. It's a woman's right, as we see it. As for fetal tissue: why not let the poor thing make some contribution to science? I see nothing immoral about it. bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:46 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money > for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at > the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why > you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. > > > > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:25 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >> government dictates. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w >> >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> *From:* John Clark >>> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM >>> *To:* ExI chat list >>> *Cc:* Gregory Jones >>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>> >>> >>> *> **So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you >>> have to play by gove*rnment rules. >>> >>> >>> >>> >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration >>> could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? >>> >>> >>> >>> John K Clark >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take >>> government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in >>> that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the >>> comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If >>> you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. >>> >>> >>> >>> Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we >>> don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is >>> going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. >>> >>> >>> >>> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >>> government dictates. >>> >>> >>> >>> spike >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 15 17:22:41 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 10:22:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-15 08:40, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Where we don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that > their money is going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. In my youth I would try to sketch the constitution of an ideal republic, but could not get around the point that anything the state does is likely to be repugnant to some minority of taxpayers; and it's cruel to make them participate. I could not square the wrongness of military conscription (I remembered when that was a thing, though I would never have said so then!) with the rightness of taxation. It was therefore a great relief to me to be persuaded that the state is not necessary. One often hears that "libertarians are selfish jerks who just want to smoke pot and not pay tax." Perhaps. This jerk became a libertarian because, out of compassion for people who disagree with me, I did not want to *collect* tax. Some call that being too weak to accept the distasteful necessities. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 17:27:44 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 10:27:44 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00c101d68b85$862c26c0$92847440$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dave Sill via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:46 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > wrote: Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. >?Where do I sign up to opt out of all government-sponsored murder? -Dave There is no such option. That is why government takes into consideration the sensitivities of voters: their goal is to be re-elected. They will do that which will increase the chances of their own re-election. Solution: get private funding for stem cell research, get privately-donated embryos and fetal tissue, problem solved. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 17:56:02 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 13:56:02 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > > > > Is fetal tissue legal even privately? > > > > Of course. The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund. > False, obviously. Fetal tissue is legal to possess and use in research, but that could easily change. > It cannot say what one can do with one?s own donated embryo. > False, obviously. > There is no federal law covering that, and there cannot be, even if > congress wanted to do something like that, because Amendment 4 would > prevent and preclude any possible enforcement. > False, obviously. Maybe in Spikelandia the Constitution reigns supreme. But in the USA there's a big difference between Constitutional theory and practice. The Commerce Clause has been used to basically give the Feds a blank check regarding what they're allowed to do. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 17:59:13 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 13:59:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Bill- Not that anyone asked, but it sounds like you and I are in exact alignment on this issue all around. The only nuance for me I would add to your position is that I don't think a mother who was put into that spot against her will via rape should find anything immoral in aborting a fetus she had no choice in creating. There's also the added argument of potential bad genes being introduced into the world by carrying it to term under the assumption that rapists are not always just products of their environment. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 1:12 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Dylan, here is my position: When an embryo attaches itself to the uterine > wall, it has a good chance of surviving the 39 weeks. To wash it out is to > stop a human life. No, not a potential life, a life. > > So I am opposed to it except for protecting the mother's health. However, > I support no laws, I support Roe v Wade, and I don't want anyone to > interfere with a human's sex life in any way at all. I am a libertarian. > > I do think that using abortion as a birth control method is highly > immoral. I personally know the operator of the only abortion clinic in > Mississippi, a former student of mine, . She too, thinks multiple > abortions are immoral, though she will not stop letting them happen. It's > a woman's right, as we see it. > > As for fetal tissue: why not let the poor thing make some contribution to > science? I see nothing immoral about it. > > bill w > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:46 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money >> for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at >> the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why >> you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:25 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >>> government dictates. >>> >>> >>> >>> spike >>> >>> >>> Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w >>> >>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *From:* John Clark >>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM >>>> *To:* ExI chat list >>>> *Cc:* Gregory Jones >>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *> **So have this funded privately. If you accept government money >>>> you have to play by gove*rnment rules. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration >>>> could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> John K Clark >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take >>>> government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in >>>> that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the >>>> comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If >>>> you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we >>>> don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is >>>> going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >>>> government dictates. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> spike >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 18:13:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:13:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] good news for a monday morning In-Reply-To: <007501d68ad0$b566eb60$2034c220$@rainier66.com> References: <003501d68a9c$01f8c460$05ea4d20$@rainier66.com> <007501d68ad0$b566eb60$2034c220$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <010801d68b8b$ef8e3e40$ceaabac0$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com ? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard What we really need is a chart like this for the European nations and for the US jurisdictions (about 55 to 60 of those (I don?t know how territories work for disease control.)) Reasoning: we heard some economists claim that the Sturgis rally can be (somehow) leveraged to 240,000 covid cases, and we know about (how many?) about 1% of the cases die. So? by their estimate and the 1% notion, then about 2400 deaths can be traced to the Sturgis rally. But the catchers at Sturgis was about half the average background catch rate (even ignoring advanced age) or even slightly lower than half, so we could use the same reasoning to argue that the Sturgis rally saved about 240,000 cases from happening, and saved about 2400 lives. That still only gets us about half way there to explaining the sudden drop in excess death rate from the most recent week reported, but I look at it this way: people die of suicide and crime and such. When one is out having fun on a motorcycle, wind blowing in one ear and out the other, clinging bitch back there whooping it up and having fun, those two are quite unlikely to be crime victims and suicide is far from their minds. The rally ended a month ago. The bikers keep right on not dying. We still have no shrieking headlines about that, no scholarly papers from the epidemiologists on what an important lesson was learned and how we can perhaps take advantage of it until we get (if we ever get) a vaccine: get your ass out of that house, expose it to the sun, or failing that, as much skin as your modest allows, have some fun wherever you find it, but try to do so outdoors while the weather is warm and the sun shines bright: it is safer out there and might carry its own health benefits. Sheesh even the mayor of New York City, who did EVERYTHING wrong, now gets this. He advised the proles to go outside. I agree. Now get the NY governor on board and there is progress: https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1304815877230133249 OUT! Out with you, I say! OOOOOOUUT! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 18174 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 18:21:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:21:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> From: Dave Sill Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > Is fetal tissue legal even privately? Of course. The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund. >?False, obviously. Fetal tissue is legal to possess and use in research, but that could easily change? Your comment could perhaps be worded ?Currently true obviously but can be changed to false at some future time obviously.? It cannot say what one can do with one?s own donated embryo? >?False, obviously. Or: ?Currently true obviously but can be changed to false at some future time obviously.? There is no federal law covering that, and there cannot be, even if congress wanted to do something like that, because Amendment 4 would prevent and preclude any possible enforcement. >?False, obviously? Medical records are private. >?Maybe in Spikelandia the Constitution reigns supreme? The US Constitution: it isn?t just a good idea. It?s the law. >? But in the USA there's a big difference between Constitutional theory and practice?-Dave Dave that is why we have a Supreme Court. But even failing that, there is no reason why embryonic research must be done in the USA. Fetal tissue is easy to transport. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 18:36:21 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 18:36:21 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 4:58 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research > Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w > > Of course. The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund. It cannot say what one can do with one?s own donated embryo. There is no federal law covering that, and there cannot be, even if congress wanted to do something like that, because Amendment 4 would prevent and preclude any possible enforcement. Actually, you're wrong in detail here. Yes, fetal tissue research is not per se illegal, but it must still abide by federal (and state and local) laws. Simply doing private research doesn't get you out from under federal involvement. Of course, you will have less involvement than if you're also being partly or fully federally funded. For instance, if you plan to transplant fetal tissue (human or other) into humans, you have to get FDA approval. There are also federal rules on how fetal tissue may be acquired and trade. So that's the supply side regulation. (And there are state laws dealing with this similar to organ laws. In fact, in my understanding, fetal tissue is treated similarly to organs here in many respects. Any legal experts care to fill in?) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 18:45:58 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 18:45:58 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 5:06 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > Good luck with that one! I can't even opt out of social justice being taught under the auspices of the non-political SPLC/BLM in my daughter's public school that my taxes are going towards. > > Let me know if you figure it out though. How is government-sponsored murder otherwise similar to 'social justice'? It's almost like you're saying, 'I can't get my local school to stop teaching about the US-Americans massacring natives in places like Sand Creek.' (I'm using this example because a local school teacher was called on the carpet for teaching about it in class. Some parents actually didn't want their children to know about that part of US history.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 18:47:01 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:47:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > *From:* Dave Sill > > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > > > > > Is fetal tissue legal even privately? > > > > Of course. The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund. > > >?False, obviously. Fetal tissue is legal to possess and use in research, > but that could easily change? > > > > Your comment could perhaps be worded ?Currently true obviously but can be > changed to false at some future time obviously.? > The false part is "The Fed has no say on that which it does not fund" because the authority to regulate or legislate isn't based on funding. It cannot say what one can do with one?s own donated embryo? > > >?False, obviously. > > > > Or: ?Currently true obviously but can be changed to false at some future > time obviously.? > Fair enough. > There is no federal law covering that, and there cannot be, even if > congress wanted to do something like that, because Amendment 4 would > prevent and preclude any possible enforcement. > > >?False, obviously? > > > > Medical records are private. > Outlawing the use of fetal tissue wouldn't require accessing medical records. > >?Maybe in Spikelandia the Constitution reigns supreme? > > > > The US Constitution: it isn?t just a good idea. It?s the law. > > > > >? But in the USA there's a big difference between Constitutional > theory and practice?-Dave > > > > Dave that is why we have a Supreme Court. > > > > But even failing that, there is no reason why embryonic research must be > done in the USA. Fetal tissue is easy to transport. > Agreed. Not even any need to transport it there. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 18:57:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 11:57:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less Message-ID: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> Someone posted: > >...I was put on Entresto and a beta blocker. The latter strongly affects > my cognitive abilities. (someone who isn't spike) > > Sheesh ((someone who isn't spike), what a thing to post, in times as exciting as these: > LIGO... spike Seeing those two comments juxtaposed gave me an idea. I wasn't aware that beta blockers would impair cog abilities, but I believe the person who is devouring them at a doctor's advice knows what it does, so I take him at his word. So what if. one's heart is helathy, a beaty thing, it seems to work adequately, beating, maintaining adequate blood pressure and such, and one doesn't have any particular heartburn with excess adrenaline (hell I pay for adrenaline ziplining with the scouts, the motorcycle stuff.) OK, so. if that's the case and beta blockers reduce adrenaline and impair cognitive function, it stands to reason there should be an opposite medication, a beta-encourager? A beta inviter? And if so, it should give pleasantly titillating enhanced adrenaline for those who enjoy this sorta thing (I do!) and it should perhaps enhance cognitive abilities in the same deal, ja? Cool! If that Entresto is doing it, perhaps there is such thing as Disentresto? We have caffeine (oh what a gift is that marvelous chemical, it even tastes good in the morning, thank you Mother Nature for that stuff!) I already know there are prescription stimulants, but I don't want to go to a doctor (too risky) I don't want to devour anything illegal (too risky) and caffeine is certainly tried and true. What else please? Legal and non-prescription only. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 18:57:44 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 18:57:44 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 6:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > From: Dave Sill > Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research > >? But in the USA there's a big difference between Constitutional theory and practice?-Dave > > Dave that is why we have a Supreme Court. Cases have rise to and be accepted to be heard by the Supreme Court. There's no guarantee that a particular case will get there or be accepted once it is there. It's almost like you're saying any US citizen can become the US president. Sure, though out of 100+ million US citizens over 35, only one can become president at any given time. Of course, the odds might be better to get to the Supreme Court, though not by much. Out of thousands of cases it's asked to review, only about a 100 are heard. This isn't even bothering to consider whether the Supreme Court will decide correctly. A look at history shows the Supreme Court to be just as political as the other branches of government. (Plessy v. Ferguson is a good example. No constitutional change happened between it and Brown v. Board of Education, but there was a political and cultural change*, no?) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ * For the better, IMO, even if I disagree with government being much less being involved in education in the first place. From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 18:58:55 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 13:58:55 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Dylan - I fully agree. It is totally up to the woman whether she gets an abortion no matter who implanted the sperm. I realize that this is a serious infringement on 'rights' (??) the husband has and I have no solution for it. You? It's her body, Period. Legal rights of the husband has probably already been adjudicated. I dunno. bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 1:08 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Bill- > > Not that anyone asked, but it sounds like you and I are in exact alignment > on this issue all around. > > The only nuance for me I would add to your position is that I don't think > a mother who was put into that spot against her will via rape should find > anything immoral in aborting a fetus she had no choice in creating. > There's also the added argument of potential bad genes being introduced > into the world by carrying it to term under the assumption that rapists are > not always just products of their environment. > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 1:12 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Dylan, here is my position: When an embryo attaches itself to the >> uterine wall, it has a good chance of surviving the 39 weeks. To wash it >> out is to stop a human life. No, not a potential life, a life. >> >> So I am opposed to it except for protecting the mother's health. >> However, I support no laws, I support Roe v Wade, and I don't want anyone >> to interfere with a human's sex life in any way at all. I am a libertarian. >> >> I do think that using abortion as a birth control method is highly >> immoral. I personally know the operator of the only abortion clinic in >> Mississippi, a former student of mine, . She too, thinks multiple >> abortions are immoral, though she will not stop letting them happen. It's >> a woman's right, as we see it. >> >> As for fetal tissue: why not let the poor thing make some contribution >> to science? I see nothing immoral about it. >> >> bill w >> >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:46 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> Yes, it's legal. As Spike mentioned, they're free to go raise the money >>> for it somewhere else. If you're someone who considers life starting at >>> the moment of conception, and all abortion as murder, I can understand why >>> you don't want your taxpayer dollars going to support it. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:25 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >>>> government dictates. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> spike >>>> >>>> >>>> Is fetal tissue legal even privately? bill w >>>> >>>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 10:44 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *From:* John Clark >>>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 15, 2020 5:27 AM >>>>> *To:* ExI chat list >>>>> *Cc:* Gregory Jones >>>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *> **So have this funded privately. If you accept government money >>>>> you have to play by gove*rnment rules. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >?Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration >>>>> could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> John K Clark >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> John everything isn?t about presidents or politics. If you take >>>>> government money, you play by government rules. Is there any politics in >>>>> that comment? Any defense of any presidential action? If so, note the >>>>> comment ?if you take government money, you play by government rules.? If >>>>> you don?t like their control, don?t take ?their? money. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Keep in mind that ?government money? is paid by taxpayers. Where we >>>>> don?t want to go is having a lot of taxpayers recognize that their money is >>>>> going to support something they consider morally abhorrent. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> So get private funding. Then study what makes sense rather than what >>>>> government dictates. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> spike >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 19:02:35 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:02:35 -0500 Subject: [ExI] old people Message-ID: It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My question: Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are worth the money? "I've fallen and I can't get up." We know that one (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems). Useful? Worth it? Any feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 19:05:59 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:05:59 -0500 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: check this out: https://www.webmd.com/search/search_results/default.aspx?query=cognitive%20enhancers On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 1:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Someone posted: > > > > > >...I was put on Entresto and a beta blocker. The latter strongly > affects > > > my cognitive abilities? (someone who isn't spike) > > > > > > Sheesh ((someone who isn't spike), what a thing to post, in times as > exciting as these: > > > LIGO... spike > > > > > > Seeing those two comments juxtaposed gave me an idea. I wasn?t aware that > beta blockers would impair cog abilities, but I believe the person who is > devouring them at a doctor?s advice knows what it does, so I take him at > his word. > > > > So what if? one?s heart is helathy, a beaty thing, it seems to work > adequately, beating, maintaining adequate blood pressure and such, and one > doesn?t have any particular heartburn with excess adrenaline (hell I pay > for adrenaline ziplining with the scouts, the motorcycle stuff.) > > > > OK, so? if that?s the case and beta blockers reduce adrenaline and impair > cognitive function, it stands to reason there should be an opposite > medication, a beta-encourager? A beta inviter? And if so, it should give > pleasantly titillating enhanced adrenaline for those who enjoy this sorta > thing (I do!) and it should perhaps enhance cognitive abilities in the same > deal, ja? Cool! > > > > If that Entresto is doing it, perhaps there is such thing as Disentresto? > > > > We have caffeine (oh what a gift is that marvelous chemical, it even > tastes good in the morning, thank you Mother Nature for that stuff!) I > already know there are prescription stimulants, but I don?t want to go to a > doctor (too risky) I don?t want to devour anything illegal (too risky) and > caffeine is certainly tried and true. > > > > What else please? Legal and non-prescription only. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 19:17:35 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 12:17:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <009601d68b81$054469e0$0fcd3da0$@rainier66.com> <011701d68b8d$02fdded0$08f99c70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <015501d68b94$def1af50$9cd50df0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dave Sill via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:22 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: ? >>?But even failing that, there is no reason why embryonic research must be done in the USA. Fetal tissue is easy to transport? spike >?Agreed. Not even any need to transport it there. -Dave Ja, and I can do even better than that Dave. All over this valley are spooky unidentified office buildings where mysterious research is taking place, highly secret for perfectly understandable reasons: the investor paying for it doesn?t want the Chinese to find out about it and beat her to market, eating her lunch. Right here in the middle of my own town is one of those: it was once the power company headquarters, but they moved out, it was vacant for a while but now some company or someone is using it. It is a secure building (you can?t get there with a brick thru the window (a bulldozer might work.)) People are seen going in and out with badges that open the front door and the security doors (if they have the code.) Investor contacts Stanford or Planned Parenthood: take the fetal tissue, secure it as you would a bad heart you just removed, put it in a metal box, lock it. Deliver it to a contractor whose badge says FyootureTech. Do not tell her what it is (she is not cleared.) FyootureTech delivery person asks no questions, brings the material to the nondescript unidentified building, drives in, door closes, she leaves the box, drives away. No one outside that building knows what is being researched there. The government doesn?t know. Pro-life protestors don?t know. The guard whose job it is to keep out anyone who doesn?t have a badge doesn?t know. This research could all be done right here in the neighborhood and no one would know. A wary investor could discover a knockout stem cell therapy, save humanity and make a buttload off of that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 19:25:30 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 19:25:30 +0000 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 7:20 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My question: > > Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are worth the money? "I've fallen and I can't get up." We know that one (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems). Useful? Worth it? Any feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! I don't know what to recommend here, but another issue is for older people and perhaps for anyone is having people who check in on you regularly. Some medical conditions need prompt attention before they become serious or life threatening. So hopefully you and everyone here has someone who will notice if they've gotten themselves into trouble quickly. This is a big problem for those who live alone. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 19:34:48 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 19:34:48 +0000 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 12:22 PM Dave Sill wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 3:06 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> On Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 6:36 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > >> > What jobs and careers actually require a Masters or >> > Bachelors -- as opposed to someone getting them because it's >> > expected?) dan >> > >> > If you are in higher education, a Ph. D. (or some other doctorate) is a must unless you are thinking of teaching at a junior/community college or high school. A Master's in psych, for example, is a booby prize for those who got in as a first year student, but did not pass the tests for entrance to the doctoral program, given at the end of the first year.. bill w >> >> Yet there the Masters has become the new high school diploma now. My >> question was rhetorical. Very few jobs and careers considered via >> skills and experience need a college degree. > > Rhetorical or not, I'll answer it: my daughter is a "Licensed Professional Counselor with Mental Health Service Provider designation" which requires "a graduate program with a counseling major". She has a Master of Education in Mental Health Counseling. My goal was only to highlight it's wasteful -- not to ask for a list of jobs where it's a base requirement. (Even in those cases, I wonder.) >> Writing code even at an >> expert level is probably better served by learning to write code and >> do general problem solving along with much hands on work in the field >> -- not by fulfilling a Masters. > > Absolutely agree. That's my point. Most positions that require college education don't really need it. It's just a way of signaling to an employer you'll be a good worker, but it really is a very wasteful signal. (Of course, from the degree holder who gets a job, it pays off, but it raises the bar for everyone needlessly and results in a huge waste of time, effort, and money to chase after that prize. Again, I refer to Caplan's book.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 19:56:47 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 15:56:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> <017701d68a05$ff819400$fe84bc00$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:47 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > My goal was only to highlight it's wasteful -- not to ask for a list > of jobs where it's a base requirement. (Even in those cases, I > wonder.) > Understood. My point in replying wasn't to start a list that nobody wants, but to give a concrete example of a job that does require a Masters. I agree that degree requirements are lazy and inefficient. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:10:27 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:10:27 -0400 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:20 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and > such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are > worth the money? "I've fallen and I can't get up." We know that one > (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems). Useful? Worth it? Any > feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! > If you're an iPhone user, an Apple Watch might be the way to go. I don't have personal experience with them, but I know they can do things like alert on loss of pulse or movement and should be able to do geofencing, where they alert when the watch moves out of a designated area. And they can do messaging and reminders, of course. I don't think Android watches are at the same level, but I'm not sure. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com Tue Sep 15 20:15:26 2020 From: avantguardian2020 at yahoo.com (The Avantguardian) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:15:26 +0000 (UTC) Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1522751226.2516407.1600200926658@mail.yahoo.com> Specifically regarding keeping track of when to take pills, this is a product I wish I had invented: https://www.ebay.com/i/392783757196?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=392783757196&targetid=935083617747&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9030874&poi=&campaignid=10454521883&mkgroupid=104612010380&rlsatarget=pla-935083617747&abcId=2146002&merchantid=6296724&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-o-mr_zr6wIVBT6tBh14Yw5FEAQYBCABEgI8lfD_BwE Stuart LaForge On Tuesday, September 15, 2020, 12:19:05 PM PDT, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take a pill.? Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might.? My question: Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are worth the money?? "I've fallen and I can't get up."? We know that one (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems).? ?Useful?? Worth it?? Any feedback may help me in the future.? thanks!! bill w _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 20:18:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 13:18:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <019301d68b9d$5c0a17e0$141e47a0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] old people >?It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My question: >?Any feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! bill w I have a FitBit. Those are cool. I used one to see that my pulse was elevated during smoke week. That has mostly cleared up now: we have reached unhealthy for susceptible individuals. Next stop: merely icky. Then: healthy! FitBit is cool: they don?t cost much, you can set alarms to vibrate and such, you can get your children to figure out how they work and set them for you. Come to think of it: there is a new job opportunity: learn all the cool stuff you can make your FitBit do, then charge proles 50 bucks to set it up for them. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:19:52 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:19:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Bill- I haven't used it, but you may want to take a look at this app that is available for both iPhone and Android: https://www.medisafeapp.com/ On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:19 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take > a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My question: > > Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and > such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are > worth the money? "I've fallen and I can't get up." We know that one > (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems). Useful? Worth it? Any > feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! > > bill w > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:27:31 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:27:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:46 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > How is government-sponsored murder otherwise similar to 'social > justice'? It's almost like you're saying, 'I can't get my local school > to stop teaching about the US-Americans massacring natives in places > like Sand Creek.' (I'm using this example because a local school > teacher was called on the carpet for teaching about it in class. Some > parents actually didn't want their children to know about that part of > US history.) > That is absolutely NOT what I'm saying. My point is a political agenda is being promulgated in a tax payer funded public school. It's not about preventing someone from teaching an ugly part of American history. It's about filtering what is supposed to be academics through an overtly political lens. I don't believe any political agendas should be driving public school education. BLM and SPLC are both overtly political organizations with very specific agendas that I don't happen to agree with. I'm not spending tax dollars for indoctrination in a public school setting. The point is there is little recourse to prevent even that. Attempting to prevent government sponsered murder is an even bigger fool's errand than that. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:38:14 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 15:38:14 -0500 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: <1522751226.2516407.1600200926658@mail.yahoo.com> References: <1522751226.2516407.1600200926658@mail.yahoo.com> Message-ID: Thanks Stuart - problem is: I take vitamins, antioxidants, anti-inflammatories, 4 or 5 prescription pills, and would need one for every bottle. Not cost effective. bill On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:18 PM The Avantguardian via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Specifically regarding keeping track of when to take pills, this is a > product I wish I had invented: > > > https://www.ebay.com/i/392783757196?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=392783757196&targetid=935083617747&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9030874&poi=&campaignid=10454521883&mkgroupid=104612010380&rlsatarget=pla-935083617747&abcId=2146002&merchantid=6296724&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-o-mr_zr6wIVBT6tBh14Yw5FEAQYBCABEgI8lfD_BwE > > Stuart LaForge > > > On Tuesday, September 15, 2020, 12:19:05 PM PDT, William Flynn Wallace via > extropy-chat wrote: > > > > > > It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to take > a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My question: > > Those of you who take care of or just know something about gadgets and > such for the elderly who have lost some cognitive powers, which of them are > worth the money? "I've fallen and I can't get up." We know that one > (OK,so that isn't for cognitive problems). Useful? Worth it? Any > feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! > > bill w > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:45:02 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 15:45:02 -0500 Subject: [ExI] old people In-Reply-To: <019301d68b9d$5c0a17e0$141e47a0$@rainier66.com> References: <019301d68b9d$5c0a17e0$141e47a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Come to think of it, for many years now I have been unable to wear anything but clothes, and would rather not wear them. I love watches and rings and have had many, and I always wind up playing with them, taking them off and putting them on my desk or in my pocket,losing them and so on. I think I'll be better off with an app for my Samsung phone. bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:24 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* [ExI] old people > > > > >?It occurred to me to buy a Fitbit or the like to alert me to time to > take a pill. Actually, I don't need that right now, but I might. My > question: > > >?Any feedback may help me in the future. thanks!! > > > > bill w > > > > > > I have a FitBit. Those are cool. I used one to see that my pulse was > elevated during smoke week. That has mostly cleared up now: we have > reached unhealthy for susceptible individuals. Next stop: merely icky. > Then: healthy! > > > > FitBit is cool: they don?t cost much, you can set alarms to vibrate and > such, you can get your children to figure out how they work and set them > for you. Come to think of it: there is a new job opportunity: learn all > the cool stuff you can make your FitBit do, then charge proles 50 bucks to > set it up for them. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 20:53:00 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 15:53:00 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I don't believe any political agendas should be driving public school education. Dylan Dylan, my man, every state has a textbook approval committee, and it is always highly political, esp. in Texas. You could ask Ballard perhaps. Texas was the place where the legislators tried to ban a vaccine that prevented cervical cancer. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/26/us/26texas.html bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:36 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:46 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> How is government-sponsored murder otherwise similar to 'social >> justice'? It's almost like you're saying, 'I can't get my local school >> to stop teaching about the US-Americans massacring natives in places >> like Sand Creek.' (I'm using this example because a local school >> teacher was called on the carpet for teaching about it in class. Some >> parents actually didn't want their children to know about that part of >> US history.) >> > > That is absolutely NOT what I'm saying. My point is a political agenda > is being promulgated in a tax payer funded public school. It's not about > preventing someone from teaching an ugly part of American history. It's > about filtering what is supposed to be academics through an overtly > political lens. I don't believe any political agendas should be driving > public school education. BLM and SPLC are both overtly political > organizations with very specific agendas that I don't happen to agree > with. I'm not spending tax dollars for indoctrination in a public school > setting. > > The point is there is little recourse to prevent even that. Attempting > to prevent government sponsered murder is an even bigger fool's errand than > that. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Tue Sep 15 21:24:46 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 17:24:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <58B15C70-EDE5-48F1-9826-5A9C85877B5A@alumni.virginia.edu> Master?s level is an end point for many psychotherapists: Social Workers, LPC, LMHC, LMFT to name a few FWIW. > On Sep 15, 2020, at 3:57 PM, Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:47 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > >> >> My goal was only to highlight it's wasteful -- not to ask for a list >> of jobs where it's a base requirement. (Even in those cases, I >> wonder.) > > Understood. My point in replying wasn't to start a list that nobody wants, but to give a concrete example of a job that does require a Masters. > > I agree that degree requirements are lazy and inefficient. > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 15 21:25:05 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:25:05 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-15 11:57, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We have caffeine (oh what a gift is that marvelous chemical, it even > tastes good in the morning, thank you Mother Nature for that stuff!) ?I > already know there are prescription stimulants I misread that at first as "precision stimulants". If only! -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 15 21:39:04 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:39:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <9cd140b0-96b7-1c8b-61a1-86c3157b6ce1@pobox.com> On 2020-9-15 13:27, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > I don't believe any political agendas should be driving > public school education. State schooling *is* a political project. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 21:42:52 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:42:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: <9cd140b0-96b7-1c8b-61a1-86c3157b6ce1@pobox.com> References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> <9cd140b0-96b7-1c8b-61a1-86c3157b6ce1@pobox.com> Message-ID: Dylan, all money for schools come from the state legislature. Maybe some local taxes too. You think they don't want some control? bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 4:40 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-15 13:27, Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > > I don't believe any political agendas should be driving > > public school education. > > State schooling *is* a political project. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 23:29:52 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 23:29:52 +0000 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 9:32 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat wrote: > On 2020-9-15 11:57, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > We have caffeine (oh what a gift is that marvelous chemical, it even > > tastes good in the morning, thank you Mother Nature for that stuff!) I > > already know there are prescription stimulants > > I misread that at first as "precision stimulants". If only! Which leads to wonder precisely what could be done here. (Pun unavoidable.:) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 15 23:47:29 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 16:47:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > >>... I misread that at first as "precision stimulants". If only! >...Which leads to wonder precisely what could be done here. (Pun unavoidable.:) Regards, Dan _______________________________________________ There are already precision stimulants. Two examples: Cialis and Viagra. spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 23:53:47 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 23:53:47 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:36 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat wrote: > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:46 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> How is government-sponsored murder otherwise similar to 'social >> justice'? It's almost like you're saying, 'I can't get my local school >> to stop teaching about the US-Americans massacring natives in places >> like Sand Creek.' (I'm using this example because a local school >> teacher was called on the carpet for teaching about it in class. Some >> parents actually didn't want their children to know about that part of >> US history.) > > That is absolutely NOT what I'm saying. My point is a political agenda is being promulgated in a tax payer funded public school. It's not about preventing someone from teaching an ugly part of American history. It's about filtering what is supposed to be academics through an overtly political lens. I don't believe any political agendas should be driving public school education. BLM and SPLC are both overtly political organizations with very specific agendas that I don't happen to agree with. I'm not spending tax dollars for indoctrination in a public school setting. > > The point is there is little recourse to prevent even that. Attempting to prevent government sponsered murder is an even bigger fool's errand than that. Since it's government schooling, it's already politicized as others pointed out. Anything, too, can be politicized. For me, if I had children in school, the worry wouldn't be whether there was a political agenda in place -- because I'd expect one -- but what exactly was being taught and how. To be sure, I'd probably go the route of homeschooling -- if I were inclined that way. (Don't intend to have kids, so this is kind of idle speculation for me.:) By the way, I don't know the SPLC or the BLM movement's stand on teaching about stuff like the Sand Creek massacre, but my guess is they wouldn't be against that. So they don't run the schools. In fact, in the case I mentioned -- and this is in Washington state which is not a Red State or known for whitewashing American history -- the parents complaining seemed to be conservative, no? I mean they're not the kind of parents who'd likely write checks to the SPLC or join in BLM protests by my reckoning. (Of course, this could be a case of Right wingers seeing school history courses saying anything critical about America as political propaganda from 'cultural Marxists' while Left wingers seeing the same courses as hopelessly nationalistic because they don't critique enough.) There's another issue here, though. And, yeah, I'm probably going overboard with Caplan's work, but the impact of schooling on ideology seems overstated. If schooling really shifted or defined people's ideology, don't you think the political landscape would look very different? Caplan shows schooling tends to have far less impact on people's ideology than peers and generational influences. Also, there's the decades old work of Philip Converse that most people -- about two-thirds of them in his studies -- simply don't hold a coherent ideology. (I knew a guy in college who seemed to fit into the two-thirds: I could argue the libertarian take on specific issues with him and he'd agree, but he never could rise above that. For instance, he might concur on legalizing pot, but it'd be another long argument on legalizing cocaine or LSD. The same thing with free trade: he might agree on free trade with electronics, but food was another story. He just never seemed to see how any of this stuff goes together. And I don't believe he was just agreeing to avoid conflict.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 15 23:56:08 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 23:56:08 +0000 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:49 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > >>... I misread that at first as "precision stimulants". If only! > > >...Which leads to wonder precisely what could be done here. (Pun > unavoidable.:) > > There are already precision stimulants. Two examples: Cialis and Viagra. I was thinking more in the area of cognitive function, but I reckon you're right there. :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 00:12:53 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 17:12:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> >...> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] more beta, not less On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:49 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <... >>... There are already precision stimulants. Two examples: Cialis and Viagra. >...I was thinking more in the area of cognitive function, but I reckon you're right there. :) >...Regards, Dan Dan... what if... we found something that does for the brain what Cialis does elsewhere. Then what if... you created a fun product where the patient gets a bottle of pills which all look identical but one is Cialis and the other works on the brain. Ya eat one, she wouldn't even know what kind of date she will have that evening. Think of all the possibilities: betting games, strip chess, oh the possibilities. spike From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 00:20:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 17:20:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <025801d68bbf$3c7c1eb0$b5745c10$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: spike at rainier66.com >...Then what if... you created a fun product where the patient gets a bottle of pills which all look identical ... Think of all the possibilities... strip chess... spike OK retract, bad idea. If you get the one medication, you win every game, then sigh, tell her: Get your clothes on, I will take you home. You get the other med, you lose every game and after the last round it is perfectly obvious why. Hmmm, let's come up with a better plan than that. spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 00:27:09 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 00:27:09 +0000 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 12:14 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > >...> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] more beta, not less > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:49 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <... > >>... There are already precision stimulants. Two examples: Cialis and > Viagra. > > >...I was thinking more in the area of cognitive function, but I reckon > you're right there. :) > > >...Regards, Dan > > Dan... what if... we found something that does for the brain what Cialis > does elsewhere. I thought the precision desired was well below the level of whole organs. Imagine, for instance, a stimulant that just boosts, say, aural perception or even just an aspect of aural perception. My guess current stimulants do affect specific stuff but in a haphazard fashion -- stimulating some stuff and not others, but not because there was a specific target in mind from the 'maker' or user. > Then what if... you created a fun product where the patient gets a bottle of > pills which all look identical but one is Cialis and the other works on the > brain. Ya eat one, she wouldn't even know what kind of date she will have > that evening. Think of all the possibilities: betting games, strip chess, > oh the possibilities. Well, you can do that now: just have pills that look alike but have different psychoactive, etc. ingredients. It's not like you need to do more than take off the shelf drugs and simply put them into similar looking capsules if you want to do random dosing. This does remind me of a story I read where recreational drugs were all legalized and what was developed was a hallucinogen that would give one a very short lived hallucination -- sort of like you could freak out on your lunch break, then go back to work without being weird all day long. I reckon microdosing probably does some of that now. But microdosing doesn't give you a full blown effect for a tiny window. It attenuates the whole experience. Or so I've been told. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 00:29:55 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 17:29:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <025801d68bbf$3c7c1eb0$b5745c10$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> <025801d68bbf$3c7c1eb0$b5745c10$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <025901d68bc0$815855c0$84090140$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] more beta, not less >>...Then what if... you created a fun product where the patient gets a bottle of pills which all look identical ... Think of all the possibilities... strip chess... spike >...OK retract, bad idea. If you get the one medication, you win every game, then sigh, tell her: Get your clothes on, I will take you home. You get the other med, you lose every game and after the last round it is perfectly obvious why. spike Dang that failure really spoils some terrific wordplay. Two identical-looking meds mixed in the same bottle, you don't know whether that evening will be Cialis or SeeAlice. Stop me please, before it gets worse. spike From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 00:35:04 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:35:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 Message-ID: Point 3 is particularly damning IMO... We present three lines of evidence to support our contention that laboratory manipulation is part of the history of SARS-CoV-2: i.The genomic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is suspiciously similarto that of a bat coronavirus discovered by military laboratoriesin the Third Military Medical University (Chongqing, China) and the Research Institute for Medicine of Nanjing Command (Nanjing, China). ii.The receptor-binding motif (RBM) within the Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, which determines the host specificity of the virus,resembles that of SARS-CoV from the 2003 epidemic in a suspicious manner. Genomic evidence suggests that the RBM has been genetically manipulated. iii.SARS-CoV-2 contains a unique furin-cleavage site in its Spike protein,which is known to greatly enhance viral infectivity and cell tropism. Yet, this cleavage site is completely absent in this particular class of corona viruses found in nature.In addition, rare codons associated with this additional sequence suggest the strong possibility that this furin-cleavage site is not the product of natural evolution and could have been inserted into the SARS-CoV-2 genome artificially by techniques other than simple serial passage or multi-strain recombination events inside co-infected tissue cultures or animals. https://zenodo.org/record/4028830#.X2FbvWhKiLL https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/chinese-virologist-posts-report-claiming-covid-19-was-made-in-wuhan-lab/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 00:46:47 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 19:46:47 -0500 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: <025901d68bc0$815855c0$84090140$@rainier66.com> References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> <025801d68bbf$3c7c1eb0$b5745c10$@rainier66.com> <025901d68bc0$815855c0$84090140$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Imagine, for instance, a stimulant that just boosts, say, aural perception or even just an aspect of aural perception. My guess current stimulants do affect specific stuff but in a haphazard fashion -- stimulating some stuff and not others, but not because there was a specific target in mind from the 'maker' or user. spike First, Cialis et al is not a stimulant. Just the opposite. It relaxes muscles around the base (no muscles in the penis; sorry guys, exercise will not enlarge it - that could be done, though, I think in the future redesign of humans) and blood vessels allowing more blood in the penis. Second, if you want enhanced audio perception, the answer is pot. Aside from thinking that the piece you are listening to is more beautiful than you ever imagined, you will hear every note clearly because you are really getting into what you are doing. Same effects when you eat - cause of the munchies - tastes wonderful. This is at a level where you are not even high; just slightly buzzed. Also, as you know, neither a stimulant nor a depressant. Long ago I tried to coin a term for it but apparently my students didn't get the job done. Sidewayzer. bill w On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 7:35 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: spike at rainier66.com > Subject: RE: [ExI] more beta, not less > > > >>...Then what if... you created a fun product where the patient gets a > bottle of pills which all look identical ... Think of all the > possibilities... strip chess... spike > > > >...OK retract, bad idea. If you get the one medication, you win every > game, then sigh, tell her: Get your clothes on, I will take you home. You > get the other med, you lose every game and after the last round it is > perfectly obvious why. spike > > > > Dang that failure really spoils some terrific wordplay. Two > identical-looking meds mixed in the same bottle, you don't know whether > that > evening will be Cialis or SeeAlice. > > Stop me please, before it gets worse. > > spike > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 00:47:24 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 17:47:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] more beta, not less In-Reply-To: References: <013801d68b92$080723a0$18156ae0$@rainier66.com> <023701d68bba$931f0570$b95d1050$@rainier66.com> <025601d68bbe$2060f300$6122d900$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <026501d68bc2$f348a930$d9d9fb90$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat ... >> ... Ya eat one, she wouldn't even know what >> kind of date she will have that evening. Think of all the >> possibilities: betting games, strip chess, oh the possibilities... spike >...Well, you can do that now: just have pills that look alike but have different psychoactive, etc. ingredients. It's not like you need to do more than take off the shelf drugs and simply put them into similar looking capsules if you want to do random dosing. Regards, Dan _______________________________________________ Dan I can see the advantages in using currently-known technologies. The original idea can be saved I suppose, sorta, in such a way to make date night a little less predictable: find a way to identically package fast-acting versions of Viagra and Ex-lax. I gotta stop this. I am dying laughing here. I am killing me. spike From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 01:16:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 18:16:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat >?iii.SARS-CoV-2 contains a unique furin-cleavage site in its Spike protein? Whatever you heard honey it?s a lie, I wasn?t even at that site, it was probably Spike Smith with the ElectraGlide or Spike Brown with that Sportster, I wasn?t there at all and none of them girls was furin, I kept my paws off of them, they was allll Amurican! That?s what I heard anyways, I wasn?t even there at that site at all? Honey put down that crowbar? I gotta stop, I am killing me here. Dylan recall I was the one who was booed off the stage for suggesting that the medical weapons lab in Wuhan just mighta had something to do with this, even after offering a scenario where it was spread by a lab grunt trying to make a few extra yen selling dead bats to the local wet market. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 01:24:54 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 21:24:54 -0400 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 9:16 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Dylan recall I was the one who was booed off the stage for suggesting that > the medical weapons lab in Wuhan just mighta had something to do with this, > even after offering a scenario where it was spread by a lab grunt trying to > make a few extra yen selling dead bats to the local wet market. > I do recall that, and to be honest, I have purposefully kept my speculations on this subject mostly to myself at least on this list for fear of being labelled a conspiracy nut by some around here. I don't think it was intended as a bioweapon though; if so, it has failed miserably based on the CFR/likely IFR. It would make a terrible bioweapon. I think it is more likely that it was related to vaccine research for SARS, and escaped accidentally. Bret Weinstein, who I have a great deal of respect for, and is on the left end of the political spectrum, not the right, has also speculated for months that there is a high probability that this was modified in a lab. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 01:52:43 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 18:52:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2020 6:25 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: Dylan Distasio Subject: Re: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 9:16 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: Dylan recall I was the one who was booed off the stage for suggesting that the medical weapons lab in Wuhan just mighta had something to do with this, even after offering a scenario where it was spread by a lab grunt trying to make a few extra yen selling dead bats to the local wet market. >?I do recall that, and to be honest, I have purposefully kept my speculations on this subject mostly to myself at least on this list for fear of being labelled a conspiracy nut by some around here? OK well no worries Dylan, I am already considered a conspiracy nut by some around here, so I have nothing to lose. In fact, I will move forward with the whole notion. Now every country in the world has this virus, terrorists have it, and it wouldn?t be all that hard for some Simon bar Sinister to replicate it up, put it in a crop duster, fly over a crowded stadium at the Super Bowl and whoooosh! slay thousands of infidels, never mind that most would not catch or perish, they would trample each other trying to flee. Hell, Simon wouldn?t even need the virus at all, just a crop duster and a tank of water. He could even get away with it if he didn?t get too carried away. A crop duster can outclimb and outrun a police helicopter. Simon turns off his running lights and just disappears without a trace, ditches on a remote farm somewhere, gone. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 02:01:07 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 22:01:07 -0400 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 9:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > A crop duster can outclimb and outrun a police helicopter. > C'mon, Spike, we're Extropians here! Crop dusters are so 20th century. Agricultural drones will still get the job done, and look cool doing it. https://youtu.be/sIY7BQkbIT8 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 02:24:09 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 19:24:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <030b01d68bd0$75e0e620$61a2b260$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 9:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: A crop duster can outclimb and outrun a police helicopter. >?C'mon, Spike, we're Extropians here! Crop dusters are so 20th century. Agricultural drones will still get the job done, and look cool doing it. https://youtu.be/sIY7BQkbIT8 Eh, Dylan, I am so 20th century. My bride is a 20th century fox. Hitchcock was such a master, he could turn anything scary, even a flock of birds. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 03:25:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:25:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com From: extropy-chat > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat >>?I do recall that, and to be honest, I have purposefully kept my speculations on this subject mostly to myself at least on this list for fear of being labelled a conspiracy nut by some around here? >?OK well no worries Dylan, I am already considered a conspiracy nut by some around here, so I have nothing to lose. In fact, I will move forward with the whole notion? spike I listened to a presentation online by this Chinese doctor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Meng_Yan I can?t find it again, but it wasn?t easy to just blow off. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 03:33:53 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 23:33:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: She's the same one who wrote the paper I linked. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 11:26 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* spike at rainier66.com > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > > > > >>?I do recall that, and to be honest, I have purposefully kept my > speculations on this subject mostly to myself at least on this list for > fear of being labelled a conspiracy nut by some around here? > > > > >?OK well no worries Dylan, I am already considered a conspiracy nut by > some around here, so I have nothing to lose. In fact, I will move forward > with the whole notion? spike > > > > I listened to a presentation online by this Chinese doctor: > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Meng_Yan > > > > I can?t find it again, but it wasn?t easy to just blow off. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 03:49:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:49:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> >>? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li-Meng_Yan >>? I can?t find it again, but it wasn?t easy to just blow off. spike > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 >?She's the same one who wrote the paper I linked? Cool thanks Dylan. I hope she is hiding in Texas somewhere where the commies won?t find her. I just went outside: the stars are out for the first time in a week. I set up my camper to flee east, then decided to not go. Good thing: looks like our smoke ended up out there. I would breathe it all coming back home. Now I have aaaaallll that junk food out there just waiting and nowhere to go. Now, I shall have the task of devouring it all woe is me how shall we cope OK cool sounds good. Hey Adrian, how did your housemate do man? Is he OK? Best wishes to him. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 03:58:04 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:58:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:51 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Hey Adrian, how did your housemate do man? Is he OK? Best wishes to him. > We upgraded our filter system further, and he seems to be doing better. We took 3 furnace filters - the large rectangular panels that are at least a meter tall - and made a triangular prism box out of them plus some cardboard, and a fan at one end (the cardboard cut around the fan), sealed it all together with lots of duct tape, and let the fan run so as to blow air through the filters. Not 24 hours later, the filters were already dark toward one end, suggesting they are indeed scrubbing a lot of particles. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 12:27:53 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:27:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 Message-ID: Yesterday 1,197 people in the USA died of COVID-19 bringing the total US death count up to 200,197. Yesterday 9 people in Canada died of COVID-19 bringing the total COVID-19 death count up to 9,188. In India 59 people per million have died of COVID-19, in the USA 604 per million have died of COVID-19. One of these is a Third World country. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 12:58:53 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 05:58:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat >?We took 3 furnace filters - the large rectangular panels that are at least a meter tall - and made a triangular prism box out of them plus some cardboard, and a fan at one end (the cardboard cut around the fan), sealed it all together with lots of duct tape, and let the fan run so as to blow air through the filters. Not 24 hours later, the filters were already dark toward one end, suggesting they are indeed scrubbing a lot of particles?. spike Adrian you are fun guy to have on a mailing list. I just ordered a box of furnace filters. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 13:50:56 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 07:50:56 -0600 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: That's because one of those numbers is a good-faith attempt to measure an actual natural phenomenon, and one of them is barely-disguised political propaganda generated by counting every warm body they could find a cold virus in. Which, to be fair, /is/ a very third-world-country kind of thing. On Wed, Sep 16, 2020, 6:30 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yesterday 1,197 people in the USA died of COVID-19 bringing the total US > death count up to 200,197. Yesterday 9 people in Canada died of COVID-19 > bringing the total COVID-19 death count up to 9,188. In India 59 people per > million have died of COVID-19, in the USA 604 per million have died of > COVID-19. One of these is a Third World country. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 14:39:15 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 10:39:15 -0400 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:53 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > That's because one of those numbers is a good-faith attempt to measure an > actual natural phenomenon, and one of them is barely-disguised political > propaganda generated by counting every warm body they could find a cold > virus in. > That's not true. For example, in my state: *?In Tennessee, the state medical examiner?s office reviews all COVID-19-associated deaths,? Buchanan said. ?Deaths are only counted as COVID-19 related if the virus is found to be a significant contributing factor to the death. If someone tests positive then sadly dies in an accident completely unrelated to COVID-19, they would not be counted in the death count for COVID-19.?* * There can also be additional conditions that contribute to the death created by the virus. Buchanan offered the example of respiratory failure associated with COVID-19. ?If someone were to die, respiratory failure would also be listed on a death certificate as well as COVID-19. The individual may have died from respiratory failure but it was COVID-19 that was the underlying cause of death.?* https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/coronavirus-in-tennessee-knox-county-reports-91-new-cases-no-new-deaths-on-tuesday/ -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 14:49:20 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:49:20 -0600 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: In the specific case of Tennessee, I believe that. Unfortunately, the national number is an aggregation of numbers from dozens of different jurisdictions with standards that have varied significantly over both geography and time. The GIGO factor is through the roof. It doesn't help matters that the [allegedly] hardest-hit geographical regions are also the ones with long-established histories of media-manipulation shenanigans, /and/ the strongest motives to engage in such at this particular moment. On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 8:41 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:53 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> That's because one of those numbers is a good-faith attempt to measure an >> actual natural phenomenon, and one of them is barely-disguised political >> propaganda generated by counting every warm body they could find a cold >> virus in. >> > > That's not true. For example, in my state: > > *?In Tennessee, the state medical examiner?s office reviews all > COVID-19-associated deaths,? Buchanan said. ?Deaths are only counted as > COVID-19 related if the virus is found to be a significant contributing > factor to the death. If someone tests positive then sadly dies in an > accident completely unrelated to COVID-19, they would not be counted in the > death count for COVID-19.?* > > > > * There can also be additional conditions that contribute to the death > created by the virus. Buchanan offered the example of respiratory failure > associated with COVID-19. ?If someone were to die, respiratory failure > would also be listed on a death certificate as well as COVID-19. The > individual may have died from respiratory failure but it was COVID-19 that > was the underlying cause of death.?* > > > https://www.wate.com/news/local-news/coronavirus-in-tennessee-knox-county-reports-91-new-cases-no-new-deaths-on-tuesday/ > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 15:12:20 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:12:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 6:00 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > > > >?We took 3 furnace filters - the large rectangular panels that are at > least a meter tall - and made a triangular prism box out of them plus some > cardboard, and a fan at one end (the cardboard cut around the fan), sealed > it all together with lots of duct tape, and let the fan run so as to blow > air through the filters. Not 24 hours later, the filters were already dark > toward one end, suggesting they are indeed scrubbing a lot of particles?. > > > > Adrian you are fun guy to have on a mailing list. I just ordered a box of > furnace filters. > The reason we did a triangle was because we ran across a 3-filters-for-$2 deal. Apparently the usual way is to get a box fan and tape 2 filters onto it - but enough people are doing that, that there is currently a shortage of box fans. Here is a (size-reduced, hopefully within this list's limits this time) picture of the completed box. You can see the black accumulating on the very bottom - that's not just shadows. (Again: just set up night before last.) [image: 20200916_080306.jpg] -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 20200916_080306.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59436 bytes Desc: not available URL: From avant at sollegro.com Wed Sep 16 15:26:34 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:26:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 Message-ID: <20200916082634.Horde.R9b5hycn6vzj1TK_gleRDO-@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Dylan Distasio: > Point 3 is particularly damning IMO... According, it very likely that the virus escaped from virology lab in Wuhan as the bat virus that most closely related to SARS-CoV-2 only occur naturally in bats from the more southern tropical parts of China, Vietnam, etc. The bats would not have occurred in the wild anywhere near Wuhan unless they were captured down south and kept in captivity as the virology lab is on record as having done. These two studies make a pretty strong case based on sequence analysis that the furin cleavage site resulted from a recombination event that occurred in a bat infected with two different coronaviruses: RmYN02, and some other, yet unidentified bat virus, possibly RaTG13. While such a recombination event resulting from coinfection of a bat could have happened in a lab setting especially in a gain-of-function experiment, it could have also just as easily happened in the wild. What is very unlikely, however, is that the virus was directly engineered by gene splicing technology in a lab as such processes typically leave short segments of plasmid DNA as a contaminant in the finished product. https://virological.org/t/the-sarbecovirus-origin-of-sars-cov-2-s-furin-cleavage-site/536 https://www.cell.com/current-biology/pdf/S0960-9822(20)30662-X.pdf That being said, there is so much politics and disinformation surrounding the pandemic that it would not surprise me if the virus was purposefully evolved and released by somebody. Not as a bioweapon but as a tool for political and social control of the masses. Even if such wasn't the case with COVID-19, it has to occur to those benefiting the most the current pandemic to purposefully start the next one. We might be witnessing the birth of what I call the virocracy. Viruses being used as a tool of oppression and control by governments. Stuart LaForge > We present three lines of evidence to support our contention that > laboratory manipulation is part of the history of SARS-CoV-2: > > i.The genomic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is suspiciously similarto that > of a bat coronavirus discovered by military laboratoriesin the Third > Military Medical University (Chongqing, China) and the Research Institute > for Medicine of Nanjing Command (Nanjing, China). > > ii.The receptor-binding motif (RBM) within the Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, > which determines the host specificity of the virus,resembles that of > SARS-CoV from the 2003 epidemic in a suspicious manner. Genomic evidence > suggests that the RBM has been genetically manipulated. > > iii.SARS-CoV-2 contains a unique furin-cleavage site in its Spike > protein,which is known to greatly enhance viral infectivity and cell > tropism. Yet, this cleavage site is completely absent in this particular > class of corona viruses found in nature.In addition, rare codons associated > with this additional sequence suggest the strong possibility that this > furin-cleavage site is not the product of natural evolution and could have > been inserted into the SARS-CoV-2 genome artificially by techniques > other than simple serial passage or multi-strain recombination events > inside co-infected tissue cultures or animals. From sparge at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 15:41:09 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 11:41:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 10:51 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > In the specific case of Tennessee, I believe that. > I doubt TN is the only one doing that. Unfortunately, the national number is an aggregation of numbers from dozens > of different jurisdictions with standards that have varied significantly > over both geography and time. The GIGO factor is through the roof. > Same is true globally: every country is different. It doesn't help matters that the [allegedly] hardest-hit geographical > regions are also the ones with long-established histories of > media-manipulation shenanigans, /and/ the strongest motives to engage in > such at this particular moment. > Oops...we're straying into forbidden territory here. I think that fudging the numbers is incentivized pretty much everywhere that politics is involved...so, everywhere. Some places may gain from boosting their numbers; others from deflating them. Believing "your" numbers are good and "their" numbers are bad is naive. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 16:13:16 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 09:13:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Here is a (size-reduced, hopefully within this list's limits this time) picture of the completed box. You can see the black accumulating on the very bottom - that's not just shadows. (Again: just set up night before last.) Yankee ingenuity at its finest. You brightened my day with that one, me lad. Adrian, thanks for being so Adriany. You are the Adrianiest guy I ever met. You have achieved adjectivehood now, meaning resourceful, inventive, get er dun and do it now. May I share that photo please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59436 bytes Desc: not available URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 16:51:45 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 09:51:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:15 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Yankee ingenuity at its finest. You brightened my day with that one, me > lad. Adrian, thanks for being so Adriany. You are the Adrianiest guy I > ever met. You have achieved adjectivehood now, meaning resourceful, > inventive, get er dun and do it now. > Actually it was my brother who built that box, and he was doing it on inspiration from others. May I share that photo please? > You may! And my description of the contraption. The more people who can (literally) breathe easier as a result, the better. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 16 17:49:25 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 10:49:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <04a601d68c51$b8060450$28120cf0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:15 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: Yankee ingenuity at its finest. You brightened my day with that one, me lad. Adrian, thanks for being so Adriany. You are the Adrianiest guy I ever met. You have achieved adjectivehood now, meaning resourceful, inventive, get er dun and do it now. >?Actually it was my brother who built that box, and he was doing it on inspiration from others? Far too modest you are sir, and most generous with credit. Shall we call it the Tymesian Prism? That would honor your parents as well. (Side note: I have become cheerfully acquainted online with Adrian?s mother who is a doctor interested in virology (I shared my county-data in table format (her group doesn?t know why the Sturgis bikers did so well either (a most pleasant lady is Adrian?s mother (and I now know why Adrian is so smart.))))) Regarding that Tymesian Prism, I happen to have a bathroom vent fan. I bought one to replace a noisy one, got up there took the old one down, discovered why it was noisy (a bit of debris had gotten in there (the fan blades were rattling on that (removed the debris (fan returned to its former sanity (so I put the old one back (and still have the new one.))))) Stop counting my parentheses please, I only kinda estimate. Stop that I say! May I share that photo please? >?You may! And my description of the contraption. The more people who can (literally) breathe easier as a result, the better? Thanks man. Dontcha just love the internet? Oh what a marvelous thing is this. A really good really effective solution, costs almost nothing to make, three cheap filters and a fan you can temporarily remove from your bathroom, some duct tape and cardboard, and boom, yer there. Fun extension of the Tymesian Prism notion: you wouldn?t even need to necessarily take the fan down. You could leave it up there turned upside down to blow air into the house from the outside. Then create a two-filter arrangement on the ceiling, set up like an upside down pup tent, cardboard ends, duct tape it to the ceiling over your bathroom vent. Result: slight positive pressure in the house, which would gently push dusty air out thru the cracks, pull in filtered air to replace it. Having your friends think you are insane in a clever way is a side benefit. Of course it blows the stink from your bathroom into the other parts of the house, but I have a solution to that too: eat loooootsa fiber. It?s good for you, and that takes care of about 95% of the stink problem: the bacteria have less time to create odiferous sulfuric compounds and funk. If your number 1 does that, ease off on the asparagus and drink more water. Sheesh NOW I think of it, after the smoke is already gone out over Nevada, fat lotta it does anybody now. Adrian hat tip to your brother, along with my thanks. You may forward what I have written. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 18:48:17 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 11:48:17 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <04a601d68c51$b8060450$28120cf0$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> <04a601d68c51$b8060450$28120cf0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 10:51 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 > > > > On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:15 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Yankee ingenuity at its finest. You brightened my day with that one, me > lad. Adrian, thanks for being so Adriany. You are the Adrianiest guy I > ever met. You have achieved adjectivehood now, meaning resourceful, > inventive, get er dun and do it now. > > > > >?Actually it was my brother who built that box, and he was doing it on > inspiration from others? > > > > Far too modest you are sir, and most generous with credit. > But accurate in this instance, I swear. > Shall we call it the Tymesian Prism? That would honor your parents as > well. (Side note: I have become cheerfully acquainted online with Adrian?s > mother who is a doctor interested in virology (I shared my county-data in > table format (her group doesn?t know why the Sturgis bikers did so well > either (a most pleasant lady is Adrian?s mother (and I now know why Adrian > is so smart.))))) > Praelsian Prism. Charles Prael is my half-brother: same mother, different fathers. Regarding that Tymesian Prism, I happen to have a bathroom vent fan. I > bought one to replace a noisy one, got up there took the old one down, > discovered why it was noisy (a bit of debris had gotten in there (the fan > blades were rattling on that (removed the debris (fan returned to its > former sanity (so I put the old one back (and still have the new one.))))) > > > > Stop counting my parentheses please, I only kinda estimate. Stop that I > say! > No. :P 5 for 5, you're good. > > > May I share that photo please? > > >?You may! And my description of the contraption. The more people who > can (literally) breathe easier as a result, the better? > > > > Thanks man. > I have lost count of the number of times, in the past month alone, I have had to explicitly give permission to share something that context said was not confidential. Most of those were CubeCab-related, though (permission to share presentation materials - a pitch deck or a video - about CubeCab). > Dontcha just love the internet? Oh what a marvelous thing is this. A > really good really effective solution, costs almost nothing to make, three > cheap filters and a fan you can temporarily remove from your bathroom, some > duct tape and cardboard, and boom, yer there. > One of my strengths, fresh out of university when the Web was practically still newborn, was my ability to look up solutions on the Internet. All the knowledge, all the ideas...and in most of my employers, I was the only one able to tap into all of that. Even today, I am slightly depressed by how many new workers keep failing to acquire this skill, when it would serve them quite well, boosting their value to friends and employers. > Fun extension of the Tymesian Prism notion > Again I should note, this was improvised because the usual method (just tape a couple filters in front of a box fan) was unavailable (due to lack of box fans). Of course it blows the stink from your bathroom into the other parts of the > house, but I have a solution to that too: > Mount it on an outside window that is not in your bathroom. ;) > Adrian hat tip to your brother, along with my thanks. You may forward > what I have written. > I shall inform him. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 19:01:27 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:01:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <04a601d68c51$b8060450$28120cf0$@rainier66.com> References: <028301d68bc6$f626c610$e2745230$@rainier66.com> <02d501d68bcc$11aa21c0$34fe6540$@rainier66.com> <032701d68bd9$0297df80$07c79e80$@rainier66.com> <033901d68bdc$73a02770$5ae07650$@rainier66.com> <037f01d68c29$2204b550$660e1ff0$@rainier66.com> <044401d68c44$49bac510$dd304f30$@rainier66.com> <04a601d68c51$b8060450$28120cf0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, 16 Sep 2020 at 18:52, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Shall we call it the Tymesian Prism? That would honor your parents as well. (Side note: I have become cheerfully acquainted online with Adrian?s mother who is a doctor interested in virology (I shared my county-data in table format (her group doesn?t know why the Sturgis bikers did so well either (a most pleasant lady is Adrian?s mother (and I now know why Adrian is so smart.))))) > > spike > _______________________________________________ If you made the box fan version as Adrian suggested, you could call it ...... the Tymes Square. :) BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 19:26:32 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:26:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:53 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *That's because one of those numbers is a good-faith attempt to measure > an actual natural phenomenon, and one of them is barely-disguised political > propaganda generated by counting every warm body they could find a cold > virus in. * > So the journals Nature and Science and Physical Review Letters and the New England Journal of Medicine are all just commie propaganda and if you want real science look to Fox News and InfoWorld, and Sean Hannity and Alex Jones. Gee, I'm nostalgic for the good old days when Extropians were science people not right wing ideologues who do whatever is necessary to make the facts fit their politics. I prefer to change my politics when it doesn't fit the facts because it's rather more difficult to change the facts to fit my politics. I have a serious question that I really want an answer to because it worries me, is this list turning into crackpot central? John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 20:06:39 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:06:39 +0000 Subject: [ExI] CH4 gobbling tiny robots Message-ID: https://robotics.sciencemag.org/content/5/45/eaba0015 Way above nanoscale, but still tiny. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 16 21:17:31 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 16:17:31 -0500 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I certainly have not paid close attention to this administration's support of science, but I have noticed several things they have done with which I disagree, some environmental. And don't we all know that the Repubs hate science? So maybe Scientific American just got so frustrated they voted to trash a no-politics of longstanding. I have not seen a reason yet that would make me lose any respect for S.A. I think all the science academies etc. should take a stand against any administration that holds science back in any way. Does anyone know that any of these organizations have lobbyists? If they don't, then maybe it's time they did. bill w On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 2:28 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:53 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > *That's because one of those numbers is a good-faith attempt to measure >> an actual natural phenomenon, and one of them is barely-disguised political >> propaganda generated by counting every warm body they could find a cold >> virus in. * >> > > So the journals Nature and Science and Physical Review Letters and the > New England Journal of Medicine are all just commie propaganda and if you > want real science look to Fox News and InfoWorld, and Sean Hannity and Alex > Jones. Gee, I'm nostalgic for the good old days when Extropians were > science people not right wing ideologues who do whatever is necessary to > make the facts fit their politics. I prefer to change my politics when it > doesn't fit the facts because it's rather more difficult to change the > facts to fit my politics. > > I have a serious question that I really want an answer to because it > worries me, is this list turning into crackpot central? > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Thu Sep 17 01:15:40 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2020 18:15:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity Message-ID: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting John Clark: > > No, Einstein demonstrated it was unnecessary, but as I have said General > Relativity and Quantum Mechanics are not compatible theories, although both > work very well within their realm of applicability, General Relativity > works great for gravity but can say nothing about the nuclear forces, > quantum mechanics can say a lot about the nuclear forces but can't say > anything about gravity. Dirac managed to combine Special Relativity and Quantum Mechanics and the math correctly predicted antimatter before physicists had any inkling it could exist as an observable particle. Moreover relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces account for the majority of the mass of an atom thereby enabling nuclear energy. There might be some clever hack that allows GR and QM to similarly mesh. > One theory works for things that are large and > massive and the other theory works for things that are small and light, the > problem is that there are places where things are both small and massive, > and in those places physics has no idea what's going on. Resolving the > contradiction between these two very good theories is probably the main > goal of modern physics, and it's not going to happen until somebody > develops a quantum theory of gravity. I don't think it is a lack of theories of quantum gravity that is the problem. There are several theories already in circulation including several versions of string theory. The problem is none can make testable predictions. How do you go about deciding the validity of a theory that makes predictions about things in a physical regime that cannot be observed in nature or reproduced in a laboratory? We need more progress in the experimental side of things I think. > > Your number is a 5 followed by 165 zeros, a googolplex is 10^(10^100), > that's a 1 followed by 10^100 zeros. Saying that one number is > astronomically larger than the other would be a vast understatement, but > that's about the strongest word the English language provides. Compared to > a googolplex 5*10^165 is zero to a wonderfully good approximation. > Yeah, I know. I noticed the -plex after I hit send, much to my chagrin. But if those atoms were radioactive, there would be about SQRT(2*pi*10^83) * 10^(83*10^83)/e^(10^83) possible orders in which the atoms could decay. That is still not a googolplex but it is much closer . . . only off by about 15 orders of magnitude or so. ;-P >> * > Mistake? Plato could have been right. Why would you use something >> so crude as a cardboard square to test something so precise?* > > > Because no physicist has ever seen a mathematical hypotenuse, however they > have seen lines that connect diagonal corners on cardboard squares. As an approximation perhaps, but not as a scientific experiment to look for granularity in space. Why would you use something made of atoms which are known to be discrete to test the existence of the continuum of real numbers? The Pythagorean theorem is a property of Euclidean space and not particles. That's why I suggested my interferometry experiment. If you can split a laser beam and have one beam traverse the two sides around one corner of a square and make it so that you can set the other beam to either go around the other two sides and corner of the square or across the diagonal, no matter how big or small you make the square, you should always get a sharper interference pattern if the two beams are going around opposite corners than if one of the beams are going across the diagonal. You should never get 100% constructive or destructive interference across the diagonal, if real numbers exist, because if a whole number of wavelengths of light fit along the sides of a square, then you should not be able to fit a whole number of wavelengths along the diagonal of that same square. > Mathematics is the language of physics but mathematics is not physics. > English is a language too but the English word "*cow*" cannot give milk. But a virtual cow can give virtual milk and a virtual man could drink it and they would all three be made out of math and information. Stuart LaForge From ben at zaiboc.net Thu Sep 17 07:20:58 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 08:20:58 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal (sic) Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 15/09/2020 15:23, John K Clark wrote: > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > /> So have this funded privately.? If you accept government money > you have to play by gove/rnment rules. > > > Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidentialadministration > could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? > That's not a defence, that's a work-around. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 10:30:46 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 11:30:46 +0100 Subject: [ExI] COVID-19 Explaining the mistaken over-reaction Message-ID: This article explains why initial COVID-19 death estimates were ten times too high. This caused the world-wide over-reaction which has destroyed nations' economies. The article comments are also worth reading (if you have the time!). I think this article is really important to get a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID ? why terminology really, really matters [And the consequences of getting it horribly wrong] Dr. Malcolm Kendrick 4th September 2020 Quote: To start with, we have the mangling of the concept of a ?case?. Previously, in the world of infectious diseases, it has been accepted that a ?case? represents someone with symptoms, usually severe symptoms, usually severe enough to be admitted to hospital. A symptomless, or even mildly symptomatic positive swab is not a case. Never, in recorded history, has this been true. However, now we have an almost unquestioned acceptance that a positive swab represents a case of COVID. This is then parroted on all the news channels as if it were gospel. I note that, at last, some people are beginning to question how it can be that, whilst cases are going up and up, deaths are going down, and down. ------------- BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 12:35:09 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 08:35:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 16, 2020 at 9:18 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics are not compatible theories, >> although both work very well within their realm of applicability, >> General Relativity works great for gravity but can say nothing about the >> nuclear forces, quantum mechanics can say a lot about the nuclear forces >> but can't say anything about gravity. > > > * > Dirac managed to combine Special Relativity and Quantum Mechanics and > the math correctly predicted antimatter* Yes and Dirac was brilliant, but the Dirac Equation says nothing about gravity because Special Relativity says nothing about gravity or about objects that are accelerating, that's why it's called special, it only works in special circumstances. It took another 10 years of backbreaking work for Einstein to figure out General Relativity which could deal with general situations like those with gravity and acceleration. > > *There might be some clever hack that allows GR and QM to similarly > mesh.* > Maybe, but that has been the Holy Grail of Physics for a century and a lot of geniuses have tried to find it including Einstein and Dirac and they all ended up with nothing, so I believe it'll take more than just a simple hack, it will probably take a change in the way we think about things as profound is the quantum revolution of 1900. I just wish I knew what it was. *> **I don't think it is a lack of theories of quantum gravity that is > the problem. There are several theories already in circulation including > several versions of string theory. The problem is none can make testable > predictions.* If it can't make testable predictions then it's not a theory it's philosophical musings, even string theory fans say it's a theory on how to someday get a theory about gravity. But even then I don't know how they'd test it. * > How do you go about deciding the validity of a theory that makes > predictions about things in a physical regime that cannot be observed in > nature or reproduced in a laboratory?* Nobody knows and that's the problem. > > *> We need more progress in the experimental side of things I think.* Yes but easier said than done. We could quickly make progress if we had a particle accelerator that was powerful enough to probe the Planck scale, but with current technology such a machine would have to be at least as big as the solar system, and it would be difficult to get congressional funding for that. In my opinion the second best way would be to build machines to more closely examine the behavior of neutrinos because they do seem to show some small cracks in the standard model of physics, such experiments are not cheap, nothing in big physics is, but they're not so expensive as to be ridiculous. Also, just a few days ago there was a report that a pseudo-atom consisting of an electron and a antielectron admitted microwaves that very slightly deviated from the predictions of the most accurately tested theory in all of science, Quantum Electrodynamics. If this is confirmed it could really be important, it could give us a clue. >> no physicist has ever seen a mathematical hypotenuse, however they have >> seen lines that connect diagonal corners on cardboard squares. > > > > * > As an approximation perhaps, but not as a scientific experiment > to look for granularity in space. Why would you use something made of atoms > which are known to be discrete to test the existence of the continuum of > real numbers?* Because matter is the only thing we know how to make scientific instruments or a machine of any sort out of, and like it or not matter is made of atoms. > > *>The Pythagorean theorem is a property of Euclidean space and not > particles. That's why I suggested my interferometry experiment. * To conduct a interferometry experiment you need a interferometer, and they are made of matter. And so are Gamma Ray orbiting telescopes. Quantum mechanics predicts that if space-time really is discrete and not continuous then high energy high frequency electromagnetic waves will travel at a slightly slower speed than lower frequency lower energy waves. But a few years back a 2.1 second long Gamma Ray burst occurred 7.3 Billion light years away, and satellites were able to determine that 2 photons coming from that burst had the same speed to one part in 100 Million Billion even though one of the photons had 1 million times more energy than the other. So Einstein won again, as usual. It's just not looking good for a discrete space time. >> Mathematics is the language of physics but mathematics is not physics. English >> is a language too but the English word "*cow*" cannot give milk. > > > > * > But a virtual cow can give virtual milk and a virtual man could drink > * Agreed, but the very fact that they serve in different realms means that a virtual cow is not identical to a physical cow, and the virtual cow couldn't exist without physics. That's why I think physics is more fundamental than mathematics. * > it and they would all three be made out of math and information.* It's not turtles all the way down, eventually you get down to matter. To make a virtual cow you have to process information, and to process information you need to make a Turing Machine, and Turing Machines are made of matter. And matter is made of atoms. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 17 13:06:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 06:06:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal (sic) Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <063501d68cf3$5b20b4e0$11621ea0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Human Fetal (sic) Tissue Research On 15/09/2020 15:23, John K Clark wrote: On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > So have this funded privately. If you accept government money you have to play by government rules. Spike, is there ANY action the current Presidential administration could take that you would not defend with every fiber of your being? That's not a defence, that's a work-around. -- Ben Zaiboc Hi Ben, I don't see having medical research funded by government if it involves fetal tissue. Every time that has come up it creates new problems and new roadblocks. This is what politics is all about: find ways to get this done in such a way to get those who are offended by this sort of thing off your back. They are partly paying for it, and their votes count. So. a politician will find a way to work around direct conflict, just as a good general looks for ways to get the army around the other guy rather than face to face combat. A good politician knows that government funding is a trap; it comes with too many strings attached. We can find away around this one easily. Have the fetal tissue donated privately and have the research a mix of funds so that fetal tissue research is not at all easy to distinguish from any other type of medical research. None of this has anything to do with my personal views on abortion. I find it most distasteful, but those who face that decision are the ones who make that call; there should be no laws regulating it in my view. There are plenty who disagree with me on that, and I respect their views too. There is no objective truth in politics, only points of view. So don't defend. Work around. It is more peaceful that way. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Thu Sep 17 15:11:56 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 08:11:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces account > for the majority of the mass of an atom Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to number of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 15:19:26 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 10:19:26 -0500 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism Message-ID: Today a column by Walter Williams, a conservative economist I follow, features the total deaths of people under communism. Truly horrible. However, I got to looking at the countries involved and wondered if you also factored in the deaths under authoritarian but not communist governments, like the Nazis, if communism would not come up with communism as the main culprit, but authoritarian governments. I do not have the inclination nor probably the ability to gather these data and run some sort of multiple regression formula on them, but I think it is worth doing and should not be that difficult. The right wing authoritarians also messed with the economy, no? bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 15:58:12 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 10:58:12 -0500 Subject: [ExI] deadliest engineer Message-ID: https://interestingengineering.com/thomas-midgley-jr-the-man-who-harmed-the-world-the-most -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 17:17:56 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 17:17:56 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 3:22 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > Today a column by Walter Williams, a conservative economist I follow, features the total deaths of people under communism. Truly horrible. > > However, I got to looking at the countries involved and wondered if you also factored in the deaths under authoritarian but not communist governments, like the Nazis, if communism would not come up with communism as the main culprit, but authoritarian governments. > > I do not have the inclination nor probably the ability to gather these data and run some sort of multiple regression formula on them, but I think it is worth doing and should not be that difficult. > > The right wing authoritarians also messed with the economy, no? Were those governments really communist though? I mean I would state socialist and from an economics perspective it's centralized planning that's their key feature. I feel it's a misnomer to call them communist, though at this point it's kind of like trying to rescue the term 'liberal.' (I'm not trying to defend communism as such here, but is there a difference between, say, the regime that took power in Russia in late 1917 and communism? And I don't think it's merely a matter of in theory communism is X but in practice it's Y.) 'Right wing authoritarians' -- by which I take it you mean the Nazis, the Italian Fascists, and similar regimes in Hungary and tributary states of the Nazis (e.g., Croatia) as well as many a regime in Latin America during the 20th century -- don't have any problem of meddling in the economy. Typically, such regimes are critical of liberalism in the broad sense and of free markets. Italian Fascists, for instance, embraced economic planning in various ways, including organizing industries and autarky (an extreme anti-trade position). Nazis did much the same, though both regimes maintained broad private ownership in capital -- even if industry was managed for state goals, as in the Four Year plans implemented started in 1936. (The Soviets started their five year plans in 1928.) The basic idea is the state should direct the economy overall -- even if some aspects of markets were left in place. This can be called corporatism or state capitalism. (Note that most regimes today which wouldn't be described as fascist still have this aspect. In a sense, you could say fascism as an economic system won. It's no accident that many New Deal policies were influenced by fascism.) Of course, any authoritarian regime (and I would use that more broadly to cover so called communist ones) is likely to not cleave too strongly to any particular ideology -- or to not embrace all aspects of it. Such regimes are products of their times and they still have factions and realities they have to deal with. Thus, for instance, the Soviets experimented under the NEP with some market freedoms before clamping down afterward. (Some take the NEP as the Soviet admission that central planning didn't work.) Latin American authoritarians were usually client states of the US, so they ran their economies mainly to plunder the politically disenfranchised for their external (US corporations mostly) and internal supporters (people and groups who might switch allegiance if they didn't get some payout) rather than implement some utopian scheme. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From johnkclark at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 18:22:26 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 14:22:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: References: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:15 AM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: >> > relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces account for >> the majority of the mass of an atom > > > * > Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to number > of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is.* > One AMU is defined as exactly 1/12 the mass of a carbon 12 nucleus which consists of six protons and six neutrons, but the mass of a free independent Proton that is not bound to anything else is 1.007276 AMU and for a Neutron it's 1.008665 AMU, and obviously 12 of those don't add up to exactly 12 AMUs. The difference is in the binding energy, the energy you would need to break apart a carbon 12 nucleus and produce 12 independent particles, and the energy you would release if you joined up those 12 independent particles to produce a carbon nucleus. It's the reason the fusion of elements lighter than Iron produces energy, it's what powers the stars. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Thu Sep 17 18:53:50 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 11:53:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: References: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: >> On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: >>> relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces >>> account for the majority of the mass of an atom > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:15 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: >> Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to >> number of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is. On 2020-9-17 11:22, John Clark wrote: > One AMU is defined as exactly 1/12 the mass of a carbon 12 nucleus > which consists of six protons and six neutrons, but the mass of a free > independent Proton that is not bound to anything else is 1.007276 AMU > and for a Neutron it's 1.008665 AMU, and obviously 12 of those don't > add up to exactly 12 AMUs. [...] And I'm saying 0.008665 is not a majority of 1. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 19:19:29 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 19:19:29 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: References: <20200916181540.Horde.rZE7eUjdI1MrzzjU8b5LVxf@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 6:57 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat wrote: > >> On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > >>> relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces > >>> account for the majority of the mass of an atom > > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:15 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > >> Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to > >> number of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is. > > On 2020-9-17 11:22, John Clark wrote: > > One AMU is defined as exactly 1/12 the mass of a carbon 12 nucleus > > which consists of six protons and six neutrons, but the mass of a free > > independent Proton that is not bound to anything else is 1.007276 AMU > > and for a Neutron it's 1.008665 AMU, and obviously 12 of those don't > > add up to exactly 12 AMUs. [...] > > And I'm saying 0.008665 is not a majority of 1. Right. I got that. You meant mass is roughly equal to the number of nucleons -- almost linear. I don't see why others didn't get that. The correction figure is measurable, but it's definitely not overwhelming, which is what I took 'majority of the mass' to mean. (That is, I thought Stuart was saying the mass isn't roughly equal to the number of nucleons, that the relativistic correction would be much much larger than it actually is.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 20:54:59 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 13:54:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 10:19 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I don't think it's merely a > matter of in theory communism is X but in practice it's Y. > It is. Lots of people have attempted the "but true communism has never been tried" defense. In almost every case, it devolves to, "this is what 'true communism' breaks down into when attempted". Physics has something similar with perpetual motion machines and Maxwell's Demon, if one does not accept the laws of thermodynamics as a prior postulates. "But why can't I just decrease the entropy in a closed system?" Or, more directly, "But actually decreasing the entropy in a closed system has never been tried. Sure, there were all those efforts that said they were going to, but they didn't actually do it, therefore they were not actually examples of this." -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 21:09:09 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 16:09:09 -0500 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: That's the same logic held by people who follow Carl Rogers, who advocated raising children with complete unconditional acceptance. Yes, unconditional - no matter what they do, you accept it. Way beyond ludicrous. Nobody could do it if they tried. My original question did not stir up much response, so here's a quiz: 1 - would you rather live in a country that was communist but not authoritarian? 2 -or in a country that was authoritarian but not communist? id est - which is more abhorrent? Number 1 is probably not possible. No, I am not going to put a 3 - neither, because everyone would choose that. bill w On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 3:57 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 10:19 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I don't think it's merely a >> matter of in theory communism is X but in practice it's Y. >> > > It is. Lots of people have attempted the "but true communism has never > been tried" defense. In almost every case, it devolves to, "this is what > 'true communism' breaks down into when attempted". > > Physics has something similar with perpetual motion machines and Maxwell's > Demon, if one does not accept the laws of thermodynamics as a prior > postulates. "But why can't I just decrease the entropy in a closed > system?" Or, more directly, "But actually decreasing the entropy in a > closed system has never been tried. Sure, there were all those efforts > that said they were going to, but they didn't actually do it, therefore > they were not actually examples of this." > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 17 21:21:04 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 14:21:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <012201d68d38$739025c0$5ab07140$@rainier66.com> ?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat My original question did not stir up much response, so here's a quiz: 1 - would you rather live in a country that was communist but not authoritarian? 2 -or in a country that was authoritarian but not communist? id est - which is more abhorrent? I would take choice 1: sit back, relax, let the government demand that others supply my needs. If they fail to supply my needs, I would just leave before the crowd. Pretty much everyone would do that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Thu Sep 17 22:32:02 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 15:32:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200917153202.Horde.bEI9SQdUd0oXDWIZqykAx62@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Anton Sherwood: > On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: >> relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces account >> for the majority of the mass of an atom > > Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to number > of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is. I should have clarified that I consider the color force that binds quarks together into nucleons to be a nuclear force. Both are mediated by gluons therefore I kind of think of the strong force as leftover color force. So the rest mass of the three quarks is something like 1% the mass of a nucleon. Stuart LaForge From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 23:33:31 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 23:33:31 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 8:57 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 10:19 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> I don't think it's merely a >> matter of in theory communism is X but in practice it's Y. > > It is. Lots of people have attempted the "but true communism has never been tried" defense. In almost every case, it devolves to, "this is what 'true communism' breaks down into when attempted". > > Physics has something similar with perpetual motion machines and Maxwell's Demon, if one does not accept the laws of thermodynamics as a prior postulates. "But why can't I just decrease the entropy in a closed system?" Or, more directly, "But actually decreasing the entropy in a closed system has never been tried. Sure, there were all those efforts that said they were going to, but they didn't actually do it, therefore they were not actually examples of this." Before you can be sure, you'd have to actually define the term AND then show that the folks saying they're putting into practice are actually making that attempt. Else, you end up confusing people who adverstise as X rather who are actually doing X. There's also a difference between attempting something and failing per se and attempting something and causing the deaths of millions of people. Was the latter caused by the attempt to implement communism as such or was it caused by having an authoritarian regime? For instance, Lenin, in particular, was arguing for killing anyone who got in the way. This isn't part of communism simpliciter but of Lenin have basically dictatorial powers little different from other authoritarian revolutions -- think of Jacobin rule and its Terror and its violent suppression of the Vend?e revolt. And if there's one thing authoritarian revolutions tend to do, it's butcher people and increase overall levels of social violence. The thing that's different by Lenin's time, of course, is late 19th and 20th+ century states with technology and bureaucracies can carry out massacres and purges far more efficiently than states in prior eras. I'm not disagreeing with the perpetual motion analogy either. I've heard the analogy elsewhere years ago -- likely from a libertarian source. But you have to look at non-authoritarian forms of communism. Here the record is not good, but you do see mass deaths. You just see the implementations not delivering and folks involved moving on to other things. For instance, the commune breaks down because people leave. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 23:36:43 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 23:36:43 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 9:11 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > That's the same logic held by people who follow Carl Rogers, who advocated raising children with complete unconditional acceptance. Yes, unconditional - no matter what they do, you accept it. Way beyond ludicrous. Nobody could do it if they tried. > > My original question did not stir up much response, so here's a quiz: > > 1 - would you rather live in a country that was communist but not authoritarian? > 2 -or in a country that was authoritarian but not communist? > > id est - which is more abhorrent? > > Number 1 is probably not possible. No, I am not going to put a 3 - neither, because everyone would choose that. bill w Haven't the nominally communist regimes -- USSR, PRC, NK, the various Eastern European Soviet client states -- all been authoritarian? I mean by this they don't have a democratic or liberal order in place. There's one party rule and often a dictator. Is that key feature of communism or one of authoritarianism? Would you define communism in a way that doesn't prejudice the issue? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From atymes at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 23:54:18 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 16:54:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 4:35 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Before you can be sure, you'd have to actually define the term That would be nice, but then people keep redefining the term. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/communism gives a definition, but the notes explicitly say that the USSR was in fact an instance of communism, and apologists say "the USSR was not 'true' communism". > AND > then show that the folks saying they're putting into practice are > actually making that attempt How do you show this, when the people you are trying to convince make an a priori claim that none of the folks who said they were putting it into practice so far actually made that attempt? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Thu Sep 17 23:55:21 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 23:55:21 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Quantum gravity In-Reply-To: <20200917153202.Horde.bEI9SQdUd0oXDWIZqykAx62@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200917153202.Horde.bEI9SQdUd0oXDWIZqykAx62@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 10:33 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > Quoting Anton Sherwood: > > > On 2020-9-16 18:15, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > >> relativistic mass-energy equivalence predicted nuclear forces account > >> for the majority of the mass of an atom > > > > Majority? That doesn't seem right; then the relation of mass to number > > of nucleons ought to be less linear than it is. > > I should have clarified that I consider the color force that binds > quarks together into nucleons to be a nuclear force. Both are mediated > by gluons therefore I kind of think of the strong force as leftover > color force. So the rest mass of the three quarks is something like 1% > the mass of a nucleon. Ah, yeah, I forgot about that... Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 00:21:40 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 00:21:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:56 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 4:35 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Before you can be sure, you'd have to actually define the term > > That would be nice, but then people keep redefining the term. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/communism gives a definition, but the notes explicitly say that the USSR was in fact an instance of communism, and apologists say "the USSR was not 'true' communism". Notice that the 1a and 1b definition are communism simpliciter. The question would then be could such a system be put into practice. (Someone like the late David Graeber would call how most of us live the 'communism of everyday life,' meaning how people tend to live in families and with close friends. And he would argue that this is communism in practice. Then the issue becomes what would communism look like were it more widely practiced rather than it never being practiced.*) Also, the notes also point out what I'm getting at: 'When it was first used in the mid-19th century, communism referred to an economic and political theory that advocated the elimination of private property and the common sharing of all resources among a group of people; in this use, it was often used interchangeably with the word socialism.' What one must ask is did the Soviet regimes try to implement that. It seems they didn't. They implemented a basically authoritarian regime with a centrally planned economy. For a good chunk of Soviet history, the economy didn't seem to be based on needs so much as meeting (usually failing to meet) whatever targets the regime's planners agreed upon. Earlier 'war socialism' -- during the Russian Civil War -- was mainly about keeping the Party in power and the Red Army able to fight off its adversaries. (In a sense, one can argue that that was successful. After all, the Party stayed in power during and survived the civil war and the Red Army did win that war.) Another problem is the Soviet regime was good at quashing communist groups that didn't ally with its views and usually with some level of Soviet control -- until the break with China, which only meant that the PRC, another authoritarian regime. >> AND >> then show that the folks saying they're putting into practice are >> actually making that attempt > > How do you show this, when the people you are trying to convince make > an a priori claim that none of the folks who said they were putting it into > practice so far actually made that attempt? You have to judge for yourself and see what they mean by communism and whether it's just the usual stock answer. But my issue here wouldn't be so much what they say. I want to investigate the idea itself. Why? Because it's quite possible its most prominent advocates simply don't know the fuck it means or how it might implemented. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ * Which is interesting because it meshes with Hayek's view that family life is basically different than life in a wider community. Hayek believed the problem with socialism -- as he uses the term -- was trying to apply the way families live to society as a whole, especially to total strangers. There are problems with trust, knowledge, and incentives once one gets beyond the family group. Or that's my understanding of his _The Fatal Conciet_. From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 00:47:19 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 17:47:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 5:23 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:56 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > wrote: > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 4:35 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> then show that the folks saying they're putting into practice are > >> actually making that attempt > > > > How do you show this, when the people you are trying to convince make > > an a priori claim that none of the folks who said they were putting it > into > > practice so far actually made that attempt? > > You have to judge for yourself and see what they mean by communism and > whether it's just the usual stock answer. Which is typically "a society they are in charge of" (notice the complete absence of caring about wants beyond their own), but they refuse to admit as much - often, even to themselves. > But my issue here wouldn't > be so much what they say. I want to investigate the idea itself. Why? > Because it's quite possible its most prominent advocates simply don't > know the fuck it means or how it might implemented. > You may well be correct. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From stathisp at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 01:00:27 2020 From: stathisp at gmail.com (Stathis Papaioannou) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:00:27 +1000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: <012201d68d38$739025c0$5ab07140$@rainier66.com> References: <012201d68d38$739025c0$5ab07140$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, 18 Sep 2020 at 07:22, spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > ?> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > > > > My original question did not stir up much response, so here's a quiz: > > > > 1 - would you rather live in a country that was communist but not > authoritarian? > > 2 -or in a country that was authoritarian but not communist? > > > > id est - which is more abhorrent? > > > > > > I would take choice 1: sit back, relax, let the government demand that > others supply my needs. If they fail to supply my needs, I would just > leave before the crowd. Pretty much everyone would do that. > That's not what communism or socialism is. -- Stathis Papaioannou Virus-free. www.avast.com <#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2> -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 01:09:47 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 01:09:47 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:49 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 5:23 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:56 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 4:35 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> then show that the folks saying they're putting into practice are >> >> actually making that attempt >> > >> > How do you show this, when the people you are trying to convince make >> > an a priori claim that none of the folks who said they were putting it into >> > practice so far actually made that attempt? >> >> You have to judge for yourself and see what they mean by communism and >> whether it's just the usual stock answer. > > Which is typically "a society they are in charge of" (notice the complete absence > of caring about wants beyond their own), but they refuse to admit as much - > often, even to themselves. Self-identified communists I've met have almost been nowhere close to ever being in charge of society. :) Anarcho-communists, of course, of which I know a few, don't want to be in charge of society. >> But my issue here wouldn't >> be so much what they say. I want to investigate the idea itself. Why? >> Because it's quite possible its most prominent advocates simply don't >> know the fuck it means or how it might implemented. > > You may well be correct. Well, this seemed to have been the case with Lenin and his clique. When their coup was successful, they really didn't know what to do to implement communism. If you read Marx -- and I wouldn't conflate communism with Marxism -- he seems to believe communism will come about after socialism and a dictatorship of the proletariat. The state will wither away and voila! communism. That's about all he says. So there isn't anything like a plan for communism in his writings. Even, if my readings are correct here, socialism is sketchy under his views. (And I'm leaving aside he thought there was historical inevitability here: capitalism would continue to expand, with ever more crises, until a revolution with a proletarian dictatorship, then socialism under this, then somehow communism. There's an obvious problem with the Soviet and Chinese examples and many others is that leading 'capitalist' societies (for Marx's time and up until the Soviet coup, this would mean the UK, France, Germany, and the US) didn't have proletarian revolutions, much less embrace socialism.) That said, with the definition you cited, I do think one might be able to easily implement communism: get a group of people all to agree to hold property in common and decide to divide the work according to abilities and consumption according to needs. That's been tried on a small scale and doesn't seem to last long. (Unless, again, you're talking about Graeber's view: then just about everyone is a communist with family and close friends. But it doesn't seem to scale at this point, no?) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 01:54:15 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 18:54:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 5:23 PM Dan TheBookMan wrote: > You have to judge for yourself and see what they mean by communism and > whether it's just the usual stock answer. On 2020-9-17 17:47, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > Which is typically "a society they are in charge of" (notice the > complete absence of caring about wants beyond their own), but they > refuse to admit as much - often, even to themselves. reminding me of https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=2146 and something else Dan said today reminded me of https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=704 (Having a blog archive is swell!) -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 04:44:00 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 04:44:00 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> References: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 1:56 AM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 5:23 PM Dan TheBookMan wrote: > > You have to judge for yourself and see what they mean by communism and > > whether it's just the usual stock answer. > > On 2020-9-17 17:47, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > > Which is typically "a society they are in charge of" (notice the > > complete absence of caring about wants beyond their own), but they > > refuse to admit as much - often, even to themselves. > > reminding me of https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=2146 Remind me of someone offering a Rawlsian approach to libertarianism: if you had to choose what kind of society to live in behind a veil of ignorance, you'd probably want to choose the freest one to avoid the outcome of your enemies (personal or otherwise) having more power than you. > and something else Dan said today reminded me of > https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=704 Reminds me of David Graeber's saying current societies are mixes of 'communism, exchange, and hierarchy.' Communism basically at the family and small community, exchange in reciprocal relationships, including most money transactions, and hierarchy as in people higher up being able to tell people lower down what do and what they get. His idea, if I'm understanding him is almost all individuals switch between these depending on who and in what setting they're interacting. > (Having a blog archive is swell!) Thanks for sharing. Hope to return there to find more gems. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books at: http://author.to/DanUst From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 05:21:36 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2020 22:21:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> Message-ID: <92bf2251-9773-1dc2-f966-6b48539dcab2@pobox.com> On 2020-9-17 21:44, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > Remind me of someone offering a Rawlsian approach to libertarianism: > if you had to choose what kind of society to live in behind a veil of > ignorance, you'd probably want to choose the freest one to avoid the > outcome of your enemies (personal or otherwise) having more power than > you. https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=1449 -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 11:45:07 2020 From: henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com (Henrik Ohrstrom) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:45:07 +0200 Subject: [ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity? In-Reply-To: References: <005201d67287$79364700$6ba2d500$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Den ons 9 sep. 2020 08:56Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> skrev: > > ### These are silly numbers. But, anyway - why did the new case count in > Sweden drop to nearly zero? Did they suddenly start wearing masks not only > on buses? > Nope, still no masks, not even on buses. No - they achieved herd immunity because that's how large epidemics end. > The epidemic petering out at 20% cumulative exposure levels proves you > don't need 70% for herd immunity, and this level of herd immunity is very > similar to the regular flu. > It is very interesting, most of the places that where hit hard like NY, Barcelona and by all means, Stockholm, have low infection rates now. Madrid had quite few cases first time round. Nothing looks like a true second wave anywhere. All the nasty times are had in places that wasn't hit in the spring. So in Sweden, many places had zero sick until late this summer. Certainly in Norway who now have a higher infection rate than Sweden. So high in fact that we should now lock down vs them according to current Norwegian rules..... They are not happy about this..... So herd immunity? Maybe, also in NY and other places. > > > ### Yes, there are these order-of-magnitude differences in fatality rates > between seemingly similar countries, not in the least explained by > government policies. Is Norway and a bunch of other European countries > going to smolder for the next couple of years until they get to the same > level of immunity as the countries that were hit harder? > Since covid will be one of the fevers in childhood, it will smolder indeed. > Future will tell. > > Rafal > Wha really interests me now is the fact that some serious percentage of ${population} has neutralising Tcells without any known infection. There might be a vaccinia equivalent out there, find that one and the vaccine questions are all but solved. /Henrik > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 13:27:53 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 06:27:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] did sweden accidentally achieve herd immunity? In-Reply-To: References: <005201d67287$79364700$6ba2d500$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <004801d68dbf$83bf9890$8b3ec9b0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Henrik Ohrstrom via extropy-chat >?It is very interesting, most of the places that where hit hard like NY, Barcelona and by all means, Stockholm, have low infection rates now. Madrid had quite few cases first time round. Nothing looks like a true second wave anywhere. All the nasty times are had in places that wasn't hit in the spring. So in Sweden, many places had zero sick until late this summer. Certainly in Norway who now have a higher infection rate than Sweden. So high in fact that we should now lock down vs them according to current Norwegian rules..... They are not happy about this..... /Henrik Henrik, thanks, I hope we learned from all this. Shutting down an economy creates damage that is harder to measure but is enormous. I have been working on ways in which society benefits from the healing (I do look at the bright side if possible (it?s my way (and there are plenty of silver linings to this one.))) For instance? we already had Zoom and Google meets. But schools were forced into it, and it demonstrated a new path around a huge and growing roadblock: college was getting more and more and more expensive, and its end product less measurable. So? we now know that measurement of ability is a promising and growing industry. We know that students? ability to learn on their own at home is a critical skill. Oh I do hope I get a lot of commentary on that paragraph. I will hold on the rest of my Zoom/Google meets commentary for now, but I have more. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:01:05 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:01:05 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness Message-ID: I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation argument. One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world itself. Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some chosen probability which we can call p_real. However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare enough that their world is likely to be real. The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world simply have access to more processing power? Why? -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:12:42 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:12:42 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation (ok, close to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the immediate planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even considering subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other important pieces of information. The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation argument. > > One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world > itself. > > Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated > with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means > that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is > a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null > hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some > chosen probability which we can call p_real. > > However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the > simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? > Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount > of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the > worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a > 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. > > But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world which > has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare enough > that their world is likely to be real. > > The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world > simply have access to more processing power? Why? > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:25:30 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:25:30 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Well, some say that universes can be created naturally within our universe due to physical processes. If that's possible, why not a simulation? But yes, I do believe the simulation argument is pretty much identical to how many religions work, I just don't think it's impossible. It's also possible that there are computation-saving tricks which manifest particularly (lol I guess that's a pun pun) as wave-particle duality. None of the particles are there unless we look. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious > to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation (ok, close > to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately > simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the immediate > planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even considering > subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other important > pieces of information. > > The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >> argument. >> >> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >> itself. >> >> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >> >> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >> >> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world which >> has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare enough >> that their world is likely to be real. >> >> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world >> simply have access to more processing power? Why? >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 14:25:47 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 07:25:47 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat >? But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare enough that their world is likely to be real? Will This is a most clever argument my son. But I can assure you, it is all sims all the way up. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:32:40 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:32:40 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Well, while I don't know how matter arises from a singularity, once it does, I believe in a clockwork universe of cause and effect from the initial event. A newly created universe unfolds over time with a chain of causation (arguably). I don't consider that the same thing as a simulation where a universe is actually running on some kind of hardware. I think a lo fidelity simulation IS possible, but it seems very unlikely that a simulation at this level of fidelity exists unless as you say, there is nothing there beyond a wave function until we look. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:26 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Well, some say that universes can be created naturally within our universe > due to physical processes. If that's possible, why not a simulation? But > yes, I do believe the simulation argument is pretty much identical to how > many religions work, I just don't think it's impossible. > > It's also possible that there are computation-saving tricks which manifest > particularly (lol I guess that's a pun pun) as wave-particle duality. None > of the particles are there unless we look. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious >> to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation (ok, close >> to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately >> simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the immediate >> planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even considering >> subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other important >> pieces of information. >> >> The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. >> >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >>> argument. >>> >>> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >>> itself. >>> >>> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >>> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >>> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >>> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >>> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >>> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >>> >>> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >>> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >>> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >>> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >>> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >>> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >>> >>> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >>> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >>> enough that their world is likely to be real. >>> >>> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world >>> simply have access to more processing power? Why? >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:46:13 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:46:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Still, that's a belief. What's to say that some kind of tiny physical processes like the exact moment and direction of atomic decay aren't actually ordained by a master? Plus, if it can exist in the physical world, it's hardware imo. Maybe they have machines that not only can create a singularity but also read everything inside it and possibly affect things inside it like aforementioned. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:40 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Well, while I don't know how matter arises from a singularity, once it > does, I believe in a clockwork universe of cause and effect from the > initial event. A newly created universe unfolds over time with a chain of > causation (arguably). I don't consider that the same thing as a > simulation where a universe is actually running on some kind of hardware. > I think a lo fidelity simulation IS possible, but it seems very unlikely > that a simulation at this level of fidelity exists unless as you say, there > is nothing there beyond a wave function until we look. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:26 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Well, some say that universes can be created naturally within our >> universe due to physical processes. If that's possible, why not a >> simulation? But yes, I do believe the simulation argument is pretty much >> identical to how many religions work, I just don't think it's impossible. >> >> It's also possible that there are computation-saving tricks which >> manifest particularly (lol I guess that's a pun pun) as wave-particle >> duality. None of the particles are there unless we look. >> >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems >>> obvious to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation >>> (ok, close to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to >>> accurately simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the >>> immediate planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even >>> considering subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other >>> important pieces of information. >>> >>> The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. >>> >>> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >>>> argument. >>>> >>>> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >>>> itself. >>>> >>>> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >>>> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >>>> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >>>> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >>>> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >>>> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >>>> >>>> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >>>> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >>>> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >>>> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >>>> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >>>> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >>>> >>>> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >>>> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >>>> enough that their world is likely to be real. >>>> >>>> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that >>>> world simply have access to more processing power? Why? >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 14:46:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 07:46:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00c501d68dca$8185d430$84917c90$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness >?I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation? What you mean ?we? Kimosabe? In the most plausible version of the sim argument, there is only you. ?We? are avatars. I am an easy one: no simulated guy necessary. You only know ?me? from my posts, ja? >?The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me? That does give me an idea. If the sim argument is a religion, perhaps we can create sims to promote religion. But not the kind where people pray to an invisible guy who lives on the mountaintop in Hawaii (except for when students are in session at UH) but rather the kind which influences people to take personal responsibility, to do good things for humanity, for compelling proles to do the right thing. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:47:18 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:47:18 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: @Spike: I'm shocked that Bostrom et al. have never seemed to address this, or what they believe the world of the simulator is like, and whether it's probable that the simulator is in a simulation too. It's a half-assed concept for sure. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *Will Steinberg via extropy-chat > > > > >? But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world > which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare > enough that their world is likely to be real? Will > > > > > > This is a most clever argument my son. But I can assure you, it is all > sims all the way up. > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:53:35 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 10:53:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: True, although it is pretty much impossible for me to prove that a Xian god doesn't exist. However, based on the lack of evidence, and our knowledge of how biological processes work, I would put the chances of an afterlife at near zero. Although I would assign higher odds that we're in a simulation since I could envision a mechanism, I'd still put them extremely low. Tipler (the physics guy) wrote an interesting attempt to reconcile how the Xian resurrection would be possible once a certain computing horsepower was reached before the simulation hypothesis was really out there in the popular culture. I haven't read it in years but it's worth checking out if you haven't: https://www.amazon.com/Physics-Immortality-Modern-Cosmology-Resurrection/dp/0385467990/ On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:47 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Still, that's a belief. What's to say that some kind of tiny physical > processes like the exact moment and direction of atomic decay aren't > actually ordained by a master? > > Plus, if it can exist in the physical world, it's hardware imo. Maybe > they have machines that not only can create a singularity but also read > everything inside it and possibly affect things inside it like > aforementioned. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:40 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Well, while I don't know how matter arises from a singularity, once it >> does, I believe in a clockwork universe of cause and effect from the >> initial event. A newly created universe unfolds over time with a chain of >> causation (arguably). I don't consider that the same thing as a >> simulation where a universe is actually running on some kind of hardware. >> I think a lo fidelity simulation IS possible, but it seems very unlikely >> that a simulation at this level of fidelity exists unless as you say, there >> is nothing there beyond a wave function until we look. >> >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:26 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> Well, some say that universes can be created naturally within our >>> universe due to physical processes. If that's possible, why not a >>> simulation? But yes, I do believe the simulation argument is pretty much >>> identical to how many religions work, I just don't think it's impossible. >>> >>> It's also possible that there are computation-saving tricks which >>> manifest particularly (lol I guess that's a pun pun) as wave-particle >>> duality. None of the particles are there unless we look. >>> >>> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:14 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>> >>>> I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems >>>> obvious to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation >>>> (ok, close to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to >>>> accurately simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the >>>> immediate planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even >>>> considering subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other >>>> important pieces of information. >>>> >>>> The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. >>>> >>>> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >>>>> argument. >>>>> >>>>> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >>>>> itself. >>>>> >>>>> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >>>>> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >>>>> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >>>>> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >>>>> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >>>>> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >>>>> >>>>> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >>>>> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >>>>> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >>>>> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >>>>> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >>>>> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >>>>> >>>>> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >>>>> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >>>>> enough that their world is likely to be real. >>>>> >>>>> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that >>>>> world simply have access to more processing power? Why? >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> extropy-chat mailing list >>>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 14:55:52 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 09:55:52 -0500 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. Dylan Or maybe it's just a game smart people play - What If? And if a person can come up with interesting scenarios, alternatives, 'evidence', it's a fun game to play. bill w On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 9:15 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious > to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation (ok, close > to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately > simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the immediate > planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even considering > subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other important > pieces of information. > > The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >> argument. >> >> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >> itself. >> >> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >> >> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >> >> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world which >> has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare enough >> that their world is likely to be real. >> >> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world >> simply have access to more processing power? Why? >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 15:07:20 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 09:07:20 -0600 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: The simulation argument, in order to remain academically respectable, is intentionally phrased very conservatively so as to avoid anything that could be attacked as "speculation". As was pointed out upthread, it's already toeing a very fine line between "respectable" naturalistic philosophy and what Vinge so memorably referred to in A Fire Upon the Deep as as "applied theology", so it very scrupulously avoids even stating it's own first order implications, let alone speculating on its second-order implications. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 9:01 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > @Spike: I'm shocked that Bostrom et al. have never seemed to address this, > or what they believe the world of the simulator is like, and whether it's > probable that the simulator is in a simulation too. It's a half-assed > concept for sure. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf >> Of *Will Steinberg via extropy-chat >> >> >> >> >? But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >> enough that their world is likely to be real? Will >> >> >> >> >> >> This is a most clever argument my son. But I can assure you, it is all >> sims all the way up. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 15:16:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 08:16:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness >... at Spike: I'm shocked that Bostrom et al. have never seemed to address this, or what they believe the world of the simulator is like, and whether it's probable that the simulator is in a simulation too? I bought his book but cannot claim to understand it to any real extent. That Nick Bostrom is a clever avatar indeed. >? It's a half-assed concept for sure? Sure but think of it Will: that concept in itself is something that can only really be done in a sim. Everybody knows that buns come in pairs, only pairs, never any other number. Just trying to imagine having only one, we need a sim to help us envision such a thing. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 15:29:29 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 08:29:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <013401d68dd0$80377380$80a65a80$@rainier66.com> ?> On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness >?Tipler (the physics guy) wrote an interesting attempt to reconcile how the Xian resurrection would be possible once a certain computing horsepower was reached before the simulation hypothesis was really out there in the popular culture. I haven't read it in years but it's worth checking out if you haven't: https://www.amazon.com/Physics-Immortality-Modern-Cosmology-Resurrection/dp/0385467990/ Ja, Will note that one of Tipler?s big themes was coming up with scenarios for resurrection and afterlife which fits our current understanding of physics. Well sure OK. Look at ourselves: plenty of us are cryonics fans or followers of some degree. What the heck it the whole notion of cryonics, other than a perfectly physics-compatible expression of a mechanism whereby we could live again? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 15:32:39 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 09:32:39 -0600 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Well that's just all of naturalistic philosophy: "Given these premises, which seem reasonable, and the generally accepted rules of logical implication, this counter-intuitive result seems to follow. Prove me wrong." It's a wonderful game, but one of the tricks to playing it well at a professional level is to scrupulously never state anything that doesn't follow trivially from your premises - you minimize your exposed attack surface that way. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 9:23 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. > Dylan > > Or maybe it's just a game smart people play - What If? And if a person > can come up with interesting scenarios, alternatives, 'evidence', it's a > fun game to play. bill w > > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 9:15 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I'm sure someone smarter than me has addressed this, but it seems obvious >> to me that there is absolutely no chance we are in a simulation (ok, close >> to none). I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately >> simulate the number of atoms we have access to, even on the immediate >> planet, let alone the visible universe. This isn't even considering >> subatomic particles, momentum, particle interactions, and other important >> pieces of information. >> >> The simulation argument appears strikingly close to a religion to me. >> >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:02 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> I have always thought there were a few issues with the simulation >>> argument. >>> >>> One that I keep coming back to is the reality of the simulator's world >>> itself. >>> >>> Let's say that K_0 is equal to the number of worlds that are simulated >>> with fidelity in the neighborhood of the fidelity of ours. This means >>> that, comparing all the simulated worlds with the original world, there is >>> a 1/K_0 chance that we are in the original world. And we reject the null >>> hypothesis that we are in a real world, as long as 1/K_0 is less than some >>> chosen probability which we can call p_real. >>> >>> However, can't you make a similar argument for the world of the >>> simulator? How many worlds are there with a fidelity close to theirs? >>> Well, I would say that, since it requires more processing power, the amount >>> of worlds like that is less than K_0, call it K_1. So comparing all the >>> worlds like that to the world of their potential simulator, there is a >>> 1/K_1 chance they are real. This is still likely less than p_real. >>> >>> But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >>> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >>> enough that their world is likely to be real. >>> >>> The next question is, what the hell is that world like? Does that world >>> simply have access to more processing power? Why? >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 15:33:23 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:33:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: It enters the world of actual statistics with the way Bostom's trilemma is composed, so I think it's fair to look at the absurdities that result On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 11:29 AM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The simulation argument, in order to remain academically respectable, is > intentionally phrased very conservatively so as to avoid anything that > could be attacked as "speculation". As was pointed out upthread, it's > already toeing a very fine line between "respectable" naturalistic > philosophy and what Vinge so memorably referred to in A Fire Upon the Deep > as as "applied theology", so it very scrupulously avoids even stating it's > own first order implications, let alone speculating on its second-order > implications. > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 9:01 AM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> @Spike: I'm shocked that Bostrom et al. have never seemed to address >> this, or what they believe the world of the simulator is like, and whether >> it's probable that the simulator is in a simulation too. It's a half-assed >> concept for sure. >> >> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:33 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> *From:* extropy-chat *On >>> Behalf Of *Will Steinberg via extropy-chat >>> >>> >>> >>> >? But if you keep applying this argument, eventually we reach a world >>> which has so many levels of simulation in its simulations, that it's rare >>> enough that their world is likely to be real? Will >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> This is a most clever argument my son. But I can assure you, it is all >>> sims all the way up. >>> >>> >>> >>> spike >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >>> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 15:37:58 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:37:58 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Ah yes, the Bun Argument. ;) On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 11:36 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *Will Steinberg via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness > > > > >... at Spike: I'm shocked that Bostrom et al. have never seemed to address > this, or what they believe the world of the simulator is like, and whether > it's probable that the simulator is in a simulation too? > > > > I bought his book but cannot claim to understand it to any real extent. > That Nick Bostrom is a clever avatar indeed. > > > > >? It's a half-assed concept for sure? > > > > Sure but think of it Will: that concept in itself is something that can > only really be done in a sim. Everybody knows that buns come in pairs, > only pairs, never any other number. Just trying to imagine having only > one, we need a sim to help us envision such a thing. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 16:46:45 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 09:46:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <01ab01d68ddb$4b72b050$e25810f0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat >>>?half-assed notion? >>? think of it Will: that concept in itself is something that can only really be done in a sim. Everybody knows that buns come in pairs? >?Ah yes, the Bun Argument. ;) Ja, Will, but after I wrote it, I realized there are other ways to interpret the notion. Its bilateral symmetry suggests a vertical division, but doesn?t actually require it. Division could be imagined horizontally, or even with a division by a vertical plane whose perpendicular vector points in the direction the hapless flat-ass is facing. The mind boggles, but? if one is open minded, there are even versions of the idea which require no plastic surgery or falling sheets of plate glass: think of the heroin-chic fashions where it is (somehow) considered cool to wear what looks like someone-else?s pants, with the someone else being at least four sizes bigger. Or? booty shorts, would be something a bit more appealing to imagine, but either visual fails to really come anywhere close to the actual meaning of the original term which I think originated with ?half-hearted effort.? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 18:13:44 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 18:13:44 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: <92bf2251-9773-1dc2-f966-6b48539dcab2@pobox.com> References: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> <92bf2251-9773-1dc2-f966-6b48539dcab2@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 5:21 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-17 21:44, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > Remind me of someone offering a Rawlsian approach to libertarianism: > > if you had to choose what kind of society to live in behind a veil of > > ignorance, you'd probably want to choose the freest one to avoid the > > outcome of your enemies (personal or otherwise) having more power than > > you. > > https://bendwavy.org/wp/?p=1449 I read Popper on this in _The Open Society and Its Enemies_. It was, IIRC, in his critique of Plato's politics. My guess is Popper got that from earlier [classical] liberals too. I've often tried to use the same idea on today's partisans -- telling Democrats and Republicans if you give the president ever more power, imagine what'll happen when the other party (the guys who believe are out to destroy all that's decent and fine) is in power. But they are partisans. Regards, Dan From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 18:18:49 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:18:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano Message-ID: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> This is a rather remarkable GIF. I don't know how they made it, but it looks believable: https://twitter.com/i/status/1306984073534070786 spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 18:53:16 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:53:16 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> (Wow, was it really only yesterday? I feel like I've put off this reply for a week.) > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 3:22 PM William Flynn Wallace wrote: >> Today a column by Walter Williams, a conservative economist I >> follow, features the total deaths of people under communism. Truly >> horrible. >> >> However, I got to looking at the countries involved and wondered if >> you also factored in the deaths under authoritarian but not >> communist governments, like the Nazis, if communism would not come >> up with communism as the main culprit, but authoritarian >> governments. [...] I saw an interesting claim once: that the USSR punished officers who refused to carry out "atrocities" but Germany did not. (I think this was in one of the essays in a collection published by the Future of Freedom Foundation, ?The Failure of America's Foreign Wars?.) ("Atrocities" was the word used by that writer; is there a difference between "atrocities" and "war crimes"?) On 2020-9-17 10:17, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > Were those governments really communist though? I mean I would > state socialist and from an economics perspective it's centralized > planning that's their key feature. I feel it's a misnomer to call > them communist, though at this point it's kind of like trying to > rescue the term 'liberal.' [...] Fine, but we can still contrast tyrants who TOTALLY ILLEGITIMATELY call themselves Communists with those who don't. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 18:54:22 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 11:54:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] A virologist speculates on the origin of CV-19 In-Reply-To: <20200916082634.Horde.R9b5hycn6vzj1TK_gleRDO-@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200916082634.Horde.R9b5hycn6vzj1TK_gleRDO-@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <170664ae-ebef-b0c6-1735-90d41c4e2633@pobox.com> On 2020-9-16 08:26, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > and some other, yet unidentified bat virus, possibly RaTG13. While Does anyone else giggle a bit at "bat [noun]"? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:01:51 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:01:51 +0000 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > This is a rather remarkable GIF. I don?t know how they made it, but it looks believable: > > https://twitter.com/i/status/1306984073534070786 Amazing how far smoke from fires can reach. Wonder if there are similar GIF for the fires in OZ a while back. By the way, who's Dano? Paul Dano seems to be not who you're referring to... And I'm assuming it ain't me. :) Regards, Dan From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 19:02:12 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 12:02:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> <92bf2251-9773-1dc2-f966-6b48539dcab2@pobox.com> Message-ID: <2738676d-f341-3baa-07ef-2a4f551b1782@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 11:13, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > I read Popper on this in_The Open Society and Its Enemies_. It was, > IIRC, in his critique of Plato's politics. My guess is Popper got that > from earlier [classical] liberals too. I've often tried to use the > same idea on today's partisans -- telling Democrats and Republicans if > you give the president ever more power, imagine what'll happen when > the other party (the guys who believe are out to destroy all that's > decent and fine) is in power. But they are partisans. It may be intentional. (On my least cynical days I'll say the intention is subconscious.) "We've created this Huge Government Program which will solve all problems and never do anything bad, so long as you NEVER AGAIN do something STUPID like vote for the Other Party." When I take off my anarchist hat and put on my constitutional hat, I have a bunch of structural reform proposals that the Biparty will never adopt because they lower some stakes. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:06:57 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:06:57 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:53 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > (Wow, was it really only yesterday? > I feel like I've put off this reply for a week.) > > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 3:22 PM William Flynn Wallace wrote: > >> Today a column by Walter Williams, a conservative economist I > >> follow, features the total deaths of people under communism. Truly > >> horrible. > >> > >> However, I got to looking at the countries involved and wondered if > >> you also factored in the deaths under authoritarian but not > >> communist governments, like the Nazis, if communism would not come > >> up with communism as the main culprit, but authoritarian > >> governments. [...] > > I saw an interesting claim once: that the USSR punished officers who > refused to carry out "atrocities" but Germany did not. > > (I think this was in one of the essays in a collection published by the > Future of Freedom Foundation, ?The Failure of America's Foreign Wars?.) > > ("Atrocities" was the word used by that writer; is there a difference > between "atrocities" and "war crimes"?) My understanding is that many of the atrocities carried out by the Soviets were legal processes. For instance, the Katyn Massacre was, to my knowledge, carried out with a specific process and the Soviet officials doing the butchering were legally sanctioned. But the Nazis, on the whole, tended to cover this up and usually stuff was done with a wink and a nod. This is why you don't have much in the way of official documents, especially from the topmost folks including Hitler ordering this or that. (Hitler was also famous for getting his underlings to do the stuff without his express sanction -- so he could explain away failures, it seems.) > On 2020-9-17 10:17, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > Were those governments really communist though? I mean I would > > state socialist and from an economics perspective it's centralized > > planning that's their key feature. I feel it's a misnomer to call > > them communist, though at this point it's kind of like trying to > > rescue the term 'liberal.' [...] > > Fine, but we can still contrast tyrants who TOTALLY ILLEGITIMATELY call > themselves Communists with those who don't. Of course. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From interzone at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:11:00 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:11:00 -0400 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 3:07 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > By the way, who's Dano? Paul Dano seems to be not who you're referring > to... And I'm assuming it ain't me. :) > > Hawaii 5-0 TV show reference: Book em, Danno: https://youtu.be/psRzzT4U0-c -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 19:18:51 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 12:18:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 18, 2020 12:02 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: Dan TheBookMan Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > This is a rather remarkable GIF. I don?t know how they made it, but it looks believable: > > https://twitter.com/i/status/1306984073534070786 >...Amazing how far smoke from fires can reach. Wonder if there are similar GIF for the fires in OZ a while back. >...By the way, who's Dano? Paul Dano seems to be not who you're referring to... And I'm assuming it ain't me. :) >...Regards, Dan Oh sorry Dan, that was a sly reference to a bit of trivia any American over the age of about 60 will get. There was an old detective show called Hawaii Five-0, where the detective (Steve McGarrett) had a young deputy named Daniel (Dano) Williams. McGarrett would always figure out who dunnit, they always caught the bad guy and every single show ended with his commanding his deputy "Book em, Dano!" or some variation on that theme. https://youtu.be/uVz_kJpv-Fs OK so... the smoke em Dano was a bit of stretch, but I like stretches. I completely get it if I need to explain it to people outside the US and young people, no worries. spike From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 19:30:01 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 12:30:01 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <4db140d5-4426-db4a-07a8-dbb80d180481@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 12:01, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > By the way, who's Dano? Paul Dano seems to be not who > you're referring to... And I'm assuming it ain't me. :) Are you too young to recognize "[verb] 'em Dan-O"? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:36:23 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:36:23 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:06 PM Dan TheBookMan wrote: > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:53 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > > On 2020-9-17 10:17, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > > Were those governments really communist though? I mean I would > > > state socialist and from an economics perspective it's centralized > > > planning that's their key feature. I feel it's a misnomer to call > > > them communist, though at this point it's kind of like trying to > > > rescue the term 'liberal.' [...] > > > > Fine, but we can still contrast tyrants who TOTALLY ILLEGITIMATELY call > > themselves Communists with those who don't. > > Of course. I wanted to add one thing to my 'of course,' but I was rudely interrupted. :) It's that I'm sure most here would have no problem with saying the USSR wasn't really a union of 'republics,' or that the DDR wasn't really a 'democratic republic.' Or that the PRC isn't really a 'people's republic.' It's amazing easy to see through the rhetoric here to see how these republics or that people's democracies aren't really democracies in the conventional sense -- that term is being used to sell dictatorship to people who aspire to liberal democratic principles in places like the UK, France, the US, etc. Regards, Dan From dsunley at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:38:36 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:38:36 -0600 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: At this point, I'm becoming more and more sympathetic to the idea of a strong constitutional hereditary monarch, with a behavioral norm of decisively and publicly crushing ursurpers. In a dysfunctional, divided democracy like the US appears to be currently enjoying, we have a permanent ongoing cold civil war [with occasional flashes of heat] as both major tribes unceasingly maneuver in the plausible hope of attaining power for a few years at a time, until the wheel turns again. This is /far/ more damaging to the lives of normal people than one side simply decisively owning the government would be. I don't even really care if a future American king would be a member of my political tribe at this point. A decent king can rule reasonably justly over badly divided factions [see the Ottoman Empire for one good example, not to mention the Romans], as long as the factions are effectively and permanently disabused of the hope of eventually crushing their tribal enemies. A hereditary king of a particular tribe is incentivized to refrain from crushing the other tribes under his rule, in a way that a president or senate majority leader is not. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 1:20 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:53 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > > (Wow, was it really only yesterday? > > I feel like I've put off this reply for a week.) > > > > > On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 3:22 PM William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > >> Today a column by Walter Williams, a conservative economist I > > >> follow, features the total deaths of people under communism. Truly > > >> horrible. > > >> > > >> However, I got to looking at the countries involved and wondered if > > >> you also factored in the deaths under authoritarian but not > > >> communist governments, like the Nazis, if communism would not come > > >> up with communism as the main culprit, but authoritarian > > >> governments. [...] > > > > I saw an interesting claim once: that the USSR punished officers who > > refused to carry out "atrocities" but Germany did not. > > > > (I think this was in one of the essays in a collection published by the > > Future of Freedom Foundation, ?The Failure of America's Foreign Wars?.) > > > > ("Atrocities" was the word used by that writer; is there a difference > > between "atrocities" and "war crimes"?) > > My understanding is that many of the atrocities carried out by the > Soviets were legal processes. For instance, the Katyn Massacre was, to > my knowledge, carried out with a specific process and the Soviet > officials doing the butchering were legally sanctioned. But the Nazis, > on the whole, tended to cover this up and usually stuff was done with > a wink and a nod. This is why you don't have much in the way of > official documents, especially from the topmost folks including Hitler > ordering this or that. (Hitler was also famous for getting his > underlings to do the stuff without his express sanction -- so he could > explain away failures, it seems.) > > > On 2020-9-17 10:17, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > > Were those governments really communist though? I mean I would > > > state socialist and from an economics perspective it's centralized > > > planning that's their key feature. I feel it's a misnomer to call > > > them communist, though at this point it's kind of like trying to > > > rescue the term 'liberal.' [...] > > > > Fine, but we can still contrast tyrants who TOTALLY ILLEGITIMATELY call > > themselves Communists with those who don't. > > Of course. > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:47:40 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:47:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:33 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > Sent: Friday, September 18, 2020 12:02 PM > To: ExI chat list > Cc: Dan TheBookMan > Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > This is a rather remarkable GIF. I don?t know how they made it, but it looks believable: > > > > https://twitter.com/i/status/1306984073534070786 > > >...Amazing how far smoke from fires can reach. Wonder if there are similar GIF for the fires in OZ a while back. > > >...By the way, who's Dano? Paul Dano seems to be not who you're referring to... And I'm assuming it ain't me. :) > > >...Regards, Dan > > Oh sorry Dan, that was a sly reference to a bit of trivia any American over the age of about 60 will get. There was an old detective show called Hawaii Five-0, where the detective (Steve McGarrett) had a young deputy named Daniel (Dano) Williams. > > McGarrett would always figure out who dunnit, they always caught the bad guy and every single show ended with his commanding his deputy "Book em, Dano!" or some variation on that theme. > > https://youtu.be/uVz_kJpv-Fs > > OK so... the smoke em Dano was a bit of stretch, but I like stretches. > > I completely get it if I need to explain it to people outside the US and young people, no worries. Thanks! I can understand the reference now. Of course, it doesn't have the same resonance for me. I immediately was thinking Paul Dano had something to do with it, but it made no sense to me. Then again, I don't follow celebrities much, so I was wondering. Now I also get where the term 5-0 comes from. :) Regards, Dan From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 19:56:13 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 19:56:13 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: <2738676d-f341-3baa-07ef-2a4f551b1782@pobox.com> References: <65abcf44-44e0-eaf0-902e-407aa15bc1a5@pobox.com> <92bf2251-9773-1dc2-f966-6b48539dcab2@pobox.com> <2738676d-f341-3baa-07ef-2a4f551b1782@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:02 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-18 11:13, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > I read Popper on this in_The Open Society and Its Enemies_. It was, > > IIRC, in his critique of Plato's politics. My guess is Popper got that > > from earlier [classical] liberals too. I've often tried to use the > > same idea on today's partisans -- telling Democrats and Republicans if > > you give the president ever more power, imagine what'll happen when > > the other party (the guys who believe are out to destroy all that's > > decent and fine) is in power. But they are partisans. > > It may be intentional. (On my least cynical days I'll say the intention > is subconscious.) "We've created this Huge Government Program which > will solve all problems and never do anything bad, so long as you NEVER > AGAIN do something STUPID like vote for the Other Party." > > When I take off my anarchist hat and put on my constitutional hat, I > have a bunch of structural reform proposals that the Biparty will never > adopt because they lower some stakes. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org Um, I lean toward it being somewhat of a prisoner's dilemma and maybe Darwinian. Any faction that willingly restricts their power is making themselves more vulnerable, ergo they don't typically restrict power once they're in office. This goes along with my view that power is rarely if ever given up willingly by the ruling class. At best, they might cede some power as a concession, but at worst they'll fight tooth and claw. Of course, aside from pure partisanship or shortsightedness ('in the long run we're all dead') and design, what about revenge and desire to hurt one's enemies? Many alt-right types seem motivated by the last two. I even went to an anarchist meeting loaded with alt-right types who wanted me to troll DSA and SJW groups because, well, it was fun for them. I'm not saying there aren't folks like that across the political spectrum/landscape -- just pointing to my personal experience. One can see this as a short range thing too: they don't think/care about what happens later as long as they get their jabs in. Regards, Dan From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 20:20:53 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:20:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: <11c051ce-bfe4-f235-1a38-310204356fbd@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 12:38, Darin Sunley via extropy-chat wrote: > At this point, I'm becoming more and more sympathetic to the idea > of a strong constitutional hereditary monarch, with a behavioral?norm > of decisively and publicly crushing ursurpers. Allow me to suggest a short book: ?The State in the Third Millennium? by Hans-Adam of Liechtenstein. > In a dysfunctional, divided democracy like the US appears to be > currently enjoying, we have a permanent ongoing cold civil war [with > occasional flashes of heat] as both major tribes unceasingly maneuver in > the plausible hope of attaining?power for a few years at a time,?until > the wheel turns again. This is /far/ more damaging to the lives of > normal people than one side simply decisively owning the government > would be. Sortition could be even better. Drawing lots is *fair*, even if it sometimes throws up a freak result. With elections you're actually building the minority problem right in at every level, and lots more with it - parties, money, fame, graft, just for starters. What chance would that leave ordinary people, what chance would we have of being heard or of making a difference? Elections are completely undemocratic, they're downright *anti*democratic. Everybody knows *that*! --a character in /Dark Light/ by Ken MacLeod -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From msd001 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 20:29:11 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 16:29:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: <01ab01d68ddb$4b72b050$e25810f0$@rainier66.com> References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> <01ab01d68ddb$4b72b050$e25810f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:50 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Ja, Will, but after I wrote it, I realized there are other ways to > interpret the notion. Its bilateral symmetry suggests a vertical division, > but doesn?t actually require it. Division could be imagined horizontally, > or even with a division by a vertical plane whose perpendicular vector > points in the direction the hapless flat-ass is facing. The mind boggles, > but? if one is open minded, there are even versions of the idea which > require no plastic surgery or falling sheets of plate glass: think of the > heroin-chic fashions where it is (somehow) considered cool to wear what > looks like someone-else?s pants, with the someone else being at least four > sizes bigger. > > > or to interpret the definition of ass to be that of a donkey... perhaps that leads to a minotaur as about-half-man + half-ass? (though a minotaur is likely about 80% ass plus slightly more than half-a-man) I'm not sure of the power ratio, but if a donkey is within tolerance of a horse then half-assed would be a measure of work over time, yeah? (or maybe it is anyway) and while we're asking the question, is the degree-of-assed to be increased or decreased? The idea of work done half-assed is understood to be a negative connotation, but is an improvement to be no-assed or whole-assed? I was going to comment on the simulation argument, but now i'm just too far off topic. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 20:34:24 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:34:24 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:51 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat wrote: > At this point, I'm becoming more and more sympathetic to the idea of a strong constitutional hereditary monarch, with a behavioral norm of decisively and publicly crushing ursurpers. > > In a dysfunctional, divided democracy like the US appears to be currently enjoying, we have a permanent ongoing cold civil war [with occasional flashes of heat] as both major tribes unceasingly maneuver in the plausible hope of attaining power for a few years at a time, until the wheel turns again. This is /far/ more damaging to the lives of normal people than one side simply decisively owning the government would be. > > I don't even really care if a future American king would be a member of my political tribe at this point. A decent king can rule reasonably justly over badly divided factions [see the Ottoman Empire for one good example, not to mention the Romans], as long as the factions are effectively and permanently disabused of the hope of eventually crushing their tribal enemies. A hereditary king of a particular tribe is incentivized to refrain from crushing the other tribes under his rule, in a way that a president or senate majority leader is not. I'm not sure the Roman or Ottoman empires are good examples of what you want. For instance, Rome had many many bad emperors -- even allowing that an autocrat is already a bad idea. It even had disastrous internal wars during the empire, including one period where the empire simply broke up into three parts for about a dozen years. The Ottoman empire relied on expansion and started to stagnate once it stopped expanding. Yeah, it was a long decline, but I don't think it's the kind of polity anyone here would want to live under. (Ditto for the Roman Empire.) A problem with all monarchical systems is, of course, succession. You might get a somewhat good ruler, by your lights, but that doesn't mean the successor won't be as good. And Anton's citing Popper earlier applies: your setup relies on a good and competent person being at the top, but it's nearly impossible to ensure a bad person (or faction) won't be on top. I also think, despite being no fan of the current US system, the crisis is overstated. Yeah, presidential power has grown enormously over both the long term and in the last two decades. And factionalism seems extreme now. But looking at history, is it really like 1968 or the 1930s? It seems like today the differences are overstated. And, if anything, I think the solution lies in the other direction: diminishing if not abolishing the power of the state. I know that's a tough sell, and I don't pretend to be the kind of person who can persuade others. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 20:50:58 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:50:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:33 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >>...show ended with his commanding his deputy "Book em, Dano!" or some variation on that theme. > >> https://youtu.be/uVz_kJpv-Fs > >>... I completely get it if I need to explain it to people outside the US and young people, no worries. Thanks! I can understand the reference now. Of course, it doesn't have the same resonance for me. I immediately was thinking Paul Dano had something to do with it, but it made no sense to me. Then again, I don't follow celebrities much, so I was wondering. Now I also get where the term 5-0 comes from. :) Regards, Dan _______________________________________________ Dan you are a writer from Australia. A friend of mine and countryman of yours (Damien Broderick) took my suggestion: insert some arcane Americanisms attributable to one of his characters from the states. He put "Book em, Dan-o" in one of his short stories. It worked. This whole thing got me to thinking about cultural fragmentation of all things. Dan since you are young, I will offer some old-timer stories and perspective, to which other senior Yanks may wish to contribute. We had only three channels when I was growing up and not much else to do in the evenings but pick one of them. Central Florida is a stormy place, so there were plenty of evenings when we only got one channel. Usually CBS was pretty good, so I knew Hawaii Five 0 better than the other cop shows (eeeeeverything was cop shows and detectives in the 1960s as westerns faded in popularity from over-use (cop shows provided the titillating danger and offered sex in addition.)) HA-5-0 was pretty good as cop shows go: McGarrett had style, and the stories were sophisticated enough to be interesting. Where I am going with the cultural fracturing: back in the olden days, people just had common references which did span generations. Now we have thousands of channels on TV alone, never mind the internet which is the equivalent of a million-channel TV, which changes everything: we now have a difficult time coming up with a name that even half of the Yanks ever heard of, so... our new universally-known cultural icons are... politicians. Even popular sports stars are no longer cultural icons really, for we have hundreds of sports now whereas it used to be four: football, baseball, boxing and basketball, in that order. So... sports stars are not universally-known, entertainers are not, but politicians are. I see this as most unhealthy, for we imagine them to have more power than they really do, the result of which is we give them more power than they deserve. But I hope to keep it lighthearted and not get us booted over to ExiPolitics. Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. Of all of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. I could go on and on. References to 1960s American silliness would add to your stories, particularly if it is arcane and caused the reader to go to the internet to look up what you are talking about. I enjoyed Damien's aussie-isms that I needed to look up. spike From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 21:02:02 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:02:02 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <4ac2604d-40b7-54ab-f6f8-4c5d4aaff600@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 12:18, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > There was an old detective show called Hawaii Five-O remembered also for its title music, which you'll find in any collection of Great TV Themes, along with that of ?Mission:Impossible? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From msd001 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 21:05:23 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 17:05:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 4:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. > Of all of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. I could go on > and on. References to 1960s American silliness would add to your stories, > particularly if it is arcane and caused the reader to go to the internet to > look up what you are talking about. I enjoyed Damien's aussie-isms that I > needed to look up. > > I think humans are a powerfully-silly bunch of any age (of, at, whatever) Ready Player One made a puzzle out of 80's references. Those get more difficult to solve over time. It makes me wonder about hieroglyphs or cuneiform having cultural references lost to time. Perhaps lost isn't even the right tone... all things old are new again... hieroglyphs are now emojis, so perhaps we'll get back to that stuff soon. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 21:05:46 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:05:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-18 13:50, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Dan you are a writer from Australia. A friend of mine and countryman > of yours (Damien Broderick) took my suggestion: insert some arcane > Americanisms attributable to one of his characters from the states. > He put "Book em, Dan-o" in one of his short stories. It worked. I once wrote to Charlie Stross, concerning a story set in Massachusetts, "Am I in the first hundred to tell you that 'ex-directory' is spelled 'unlisted' on this side?" "You're the first." -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 21:20:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:20:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: <008001d68dc7$9a901330$cfb03990$@rainier66.com> <012301d68dce$af20a560$0d61f020$@rainier66.com> <01ab01d68ddb$4b72b050$e25810f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <026201d68e01$779d7e50$66d87af0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 12:50 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: >>? it is (somehow) considered cool to wear what looks like someone-else?s pants, with the someone else being at least four sizes bigger. >?or to interpret the definition of ass to be that of a donkey... perhaps that leads to a minotaur as about-half-man + half-ass? >?I'm not sure of the power ratio, but if a donkey is within tolerance of a horse? >?is the degree-of-assed to be increased or decreased? ? >? I was going to comment on the simulation argument, but now i'm just too far off topic? Sure Mike, but it wandered off-topic in a fun direction. Any ExI post which both makes us think and makes us laugh is a success, even if it goes off-topic. It is OK to have some fun on ExI: it?s an ongoing party really, already over a quarter century along. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 21:43:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:43:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 4:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. Of all of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. ? >?I think humans are a powerfully-silly bunch of any age (of, at, whatever)? We are! I was given the nickname Spike as a misunderstanding of someone calling me ?Spock? from Star Trek. The real Spike Jones was before my time, but it really worked, so that became my professional name, the one I used on my badge for nearly my entire career. By fortunate accident, I became a tech lead at age 28. It would appear a bit unseemly if I went to lunch with my own guys, so I went along more with the other leads, who were all typically 50s and even 60s. So? they had a lot of fun making Spike Jones references that I didn?t get because I didn?t have any of his records and none of that stuff was on the radio by the time I had a radio. It was a lotta fun for these guys: they would always be making these comments that went over my head, stuff from their misspent youth. Unfortunately? all of those guys are passed on now, all of them, sigh. This was one of their favorites, not Jones but rather Bing Crosby: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjgqQcKE3DY These yahoos were always making references to Spike Jones lyrics and thought it great fun that I had never heard of any of it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 22:07:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:07:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] astronomy photo contest Message-ID: <000f01d68e08$19a3b510$4ceb1f30$@rainier66.com> Dan the Bookman, your countrymen have produced some beauties: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8722329/Stunning-image-Andro meda-galaxy-takes-prize-astronomy-photographer-year-2020.html spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 22:37:19 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 17:37:19 -0500 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: So... sports stars are not universally-known, entertainers are not, spike Are you out of your mind? Entertainment is one of America's biggest exports, and people watch our sports all over the world. There's a good reason a defensive back can make $20 million a year (and Oprah 100 million). 'Fess up - you don't know the first thing about sports; and entertainment only from the past. You think our politicians are more popular than basketball stars? You see people wearing Trump and Biden Tshirts? You'll see a million LeBron James ones before you see 10 of those. Sales of pro football jerseys are high in Japan and all over. I could go on. bill w On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 4:45 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano > > > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 4:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. > Of all of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. ? > > > > >?I think humans are a powerfully-silly bunch of any age (of, at, > whatever)? > > > > > > We are! > > > > I was given the nickname Spike as a misunderstanding of someone calling me > ?Spock? from Star Trek. The real Spike Jones was before my time, but it > really worked, so that became my professional name, the one I used on my > badge for nearly my entire career. > > > > By fortunate accident, I became a tech lead at age 28. It would appear a > bit unseemly if I went to lunch with my own guys, so I went along more with > the other leads, who were all typically 50s and even 60s. So? they had a > lot of fun making Spike Jones references that I didn?t get because I didn?t > have any of his records and none of that stuff was on the radio by the time > I had a radio. It was a lotta fun for these guys: they would always be > making these comments that went over my head, stuff from their misspent > youth. > > > > Unfortunately? all of those guys are passed on now, all of them, sigh. > This was one of their favorites, not Jones but rather Bing Crosby: > > > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjgqQcKE3DY > > > > These yahoos were always making references to Spike Jones lyrics and > thought it great fun that I had never heard of any of it. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 22:39:59 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 17:39:59 -0500 Subject: [ExI] astronomy photo contest In-Reply-To: <000f01d68e08$19a3b510$4ceb1f30$@rainier66.com> References: <000f01d68e08$19a3b510$4ceb1f30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: It would have been nice to actually see all of the first two pictures. bill w On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 5:09 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Dan the Bookman, your countrymen have produced some beauties: > > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8722329/Stunning-image-Andro > meda-galaxy-takes-prize-astronomy-photographer-year-2020.html > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 18 22:42:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:42:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <003901d68e0d$0369c230$0a3d4690$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 4:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. Of all of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. ? >>?I think humans are a powerfully-silly bunch of any age (of, at, whatever)? >?We are! Mike I am old enough to remember when college students had a sense of humor but little old church ladies did not. I don?t know how those got switched around. There was so much silliness in the USA, I would be willing to take on any nation in the world at Silly Olympics. Probably Britain would take silver and perhaps Australia bronze, but it really isn?t fair because the USA has so many proles, and Australia not, so if we went by specific silliness, or silliness per capita, Australia would take gold, Britain again with the silver and USA bronze. All three of those outfits value good silliness. As I was writing about the 60s, I was reminded of a story the old guys told about Pistol Packin Mama. In the 60s, the RV campers became all the rage. Lockheed had a big parking lot out back where guys could park their RVs and junk cars they were going to fix up someday (secure, fenced area.) Lots of trailers, cab-overs and Winnebagos were out there. In those days, senior engineers often had secretaries, and that was before the days whem engineers were women and secretaries are men. It was the other way around back then. Well, the outcome is fairly predictable: guys would slip away during lunch, meet their girlfriends out in the RV area for a little Afternoon Delight (note capitalization intentional younger people and Australians (go ahead (look it up (it?s worth it.)))) One of the senior guys was doing that, and these friends of mine were humming Pistol Packin Mama, hoping he would get the message and knock it off, lest one day his wife (who also worked at Lockheed Sunnyvale) would show up with Mister Smith and Mister Wesson, which didn?t give them any particular heartburn so long as mama didn?t decided to eliminate the witnesses along with the offender. One day he made arrangements, met his secretary out there for a tour of his RV, they went in and discovered pistol packin mama already there, going at it with another Lockheed engineer. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 23:20:54 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 16:20:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <4646cc84-8a82-732c-d76f-2704c1e92add@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 13:50, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We had only three channels when I was growing up Three channels? We had half a channel, and grateful for it! -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Fri Sep 18 23:32:34 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 16:32:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <003901d68e0d$0369c230$0a3d4690$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> <003901d68e0d$0369c230$0a3d4690$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <06034239-b699-fb0a-be7c-f491ef9bf5be@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 15:42, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > [...] guys would slip away during lunch, meet their girlfriends > out in the RV area for a little Afternoon Delight (note capitalization > intentional younger people and Australians (go ahead (look it up (it?s > worth it.)))) Lockheed parking lot, eh? Any skyrockets in flight? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 18 23:34:59 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 18:34:59 -0500 Subject: [ExI] astronomy photo contest In-Reply-To: References: <000f01d68e08$19a3b510$4ceb1f30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/astrophotography/astronomy-photographer-of-the-year-2020-winners-announced/ a site where you can see the whole pictures bill w On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 5:39 PM William Flynn Wallace wrote: > It would have been nice to actually see all of the first two pictures. > bill w > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 5:09 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> Dan the Bookman, your countrymen have produced some beauties: >> >> >> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8722329/Stunning-image-Andro >> meda-galaxy-takes-prize-astronomy-photographer-year-2020.html >> >> >> spike >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 00:29:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 17:29:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <06034239-b699-fb0a-be7c-f491ef9bf5be@pobox.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> <003901d68e0d$0369c230$0a3d4690$@rainier66.com> <06034239-b699-fb0a-be7c-f491ef9bf5be@pobox.com> Message-ID: <001b01d68e1b$eaf4a0d0$c0dde270$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Anton Sherwood On 2020-9-18 15:42, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >>... [...] guys would slip away during lunch, meet their girlfriends out in > the RV area for a little Afternoon Delight... >...Lockheed parking lot, eh? Any skyrockets in flight? -- I don't know about fireworks, but I do know at least one occasion where there were unhappy campers. spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 01:40:33 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 01:40:33 +0000 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 8:52 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:33 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > > >>...show ended with his commanding his deputy "Book em, Dano!" or some variation on that theme. > > > >> https://youtu.be/uVz_kJpv-Fs > > > >>... I completely get it if I need to explain it to people outside the US and young people, no worries. > >> Thanks! I can understand the reference now. Of course, it doesn't have >> the same resonance for me. I immediately was thinking Paul Dano had >> something to do with it, but it made no sense to me. Then again, I don't >> follow celebrities much, so I was wondering. >> >> Now I also get where the term 5-0 comes from. :) > > Dan you are a writer from Australia. What gave you that idea? I've never even been there, though I've got nothing against the place or its people. :) > A friend of mine and countryman of yours (Damien Broderick) took my > suggestion: insert some arcane Americanisms attributable to one of his > characters from the states. He put "Book em, Dan-o" in one of his > short stories. It worked. Little things like that can work for sure. One has to be careful, though, to make sure they're appropriate. It helps to have someone who can give feedback if you're making a character or setting up a situation where you might not have enough background knowledge. This is one reason why I usually write science fiction or am careful just making up places and people. I still made an error in a novella I'm working on that a friend who's a doctor pointed out. I just wrote some scenes in a completely made up clinic. He pointed out that in actual hospitals the staff wouldn't behave anything like I said. So back to revision. :) > This whole thing got me to thinking about cultural fragmentation of all things. > > Dan since you are young, I will offer some old-timer stories and perspective, to which other senior Yanks may wish to contribute. > > We had only three channels when I was growing up and not much else to do > in the evenings but pick one of them. Central Florida is a stormy place, so > there were plenty of evenings when we only got one channel. Usually CBS > was pretty good, so I knew Hawaii Five 0 better than the other cop shows > (eeeeeverything was cop shows and detectives in the 1960s as westerns > faded in popularity from over-use (cop shows provided the titillating danger > and offered sex in addition.)) I can see that. I think many of the stories are morality plays too: someone does something bad and they eventually get what's coming to them. > HA-5-0 was pretty good as cop shows go: McGarrett had style, and the stories > were sophisticated enough to be interesting. I'll have to check it out. I saw there's a recent reboot. > Where I am going with the cultural fracturing: back in the olden days, people > just had common references which did span generations. Now we have > thousands of channels on TV alone, never mind the internet which is the > equivalent of a million-channel TV, which changes everything: we now have > a difficult time coming up with a name that even half of the Yanks ever heard > of, so... our new universally-known cultural icons are... politicians. I believe things also move faster too. If you grew up with email being the main Internet interface, then social media came along and the world is very different. Now imagine you were raised on My Space, FB, and Twitter. There's a generation now that sees them as old and now even Snapchat is old. Etc. > Even popular sports stars are no longer cultural icons really, for we have > hundreds of sports now whereas it used to be four: football, baseball, boxing > and basketball, in that order. So... sports stars are not universally-known, > entertainers are not, but politicians are. I see this as most unhealthy, for > we imagine them to have more power than they really do, the result of which > is we give them more power than they deserve. I'm not a sportsfan, but I think there are some all-time greats that still have an audience. But this is like entertainment in general. I watch a lot of old movies, but few of my friends know who Billy Wider or John Huston are. :) But I'm old enough to remind when the era of the blockbuster movie was supposed to have ended -- sometime in the early 2000s. Yet Hollywood seems to have to discovered the formula of using comic book material and also doing endless reboots of Star Trek and the like. > But I hope to keep it lighthearted and not get us booted over to ExiPolitics. I'm not on the ExiPolitics list and fear joining. :) Anyhow, I'm sure you're all aware there's a Supreme Court vacancy now. > Every society has its silliness, and the USA is a powerfully-silly place. Of all > of them, the 60s were a most powerfully silly decade. I could go on and on. > References to 1960s American silliness would add to your stories, particularly > if it is arcane and caused the reader to go to the internet to look up what you > are talking about. I enjoyed Damien's aussie-isms that I needed to look up. Regarding the 1960s, I've been meaning to read more on this, but there's so much to know. I have some broad outlines of some of the stuff happening in the US and Europe and obviously big stuff in Southeast Asia and China. One book I've been meaning to read is Jeff Riggenbach's book _In Praise of Decadence_. I believe this article of his from 1979 gives a taste of what might be in the book: https://www.libertarianism.org/publications/essays/praise-decadence Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 03:10:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:10:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005b01d68e32$69928f90$3cb7aeb0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat ... Hi Dan, Insider humor: consider a movie called Wayne's World. Mike Myers wrote most of that material, and he is about 2 yrs my junior. Myers filled that with so much early 70s pop culture, those who are up to speed on that just roll on the floor laughing at these two goofs (Myers and Carvey playing Wayne and Garth.) But if one doesn't catch all the sly references all over the place, it is the dumbest movie you ever saw. It helps if you have friends that somehow failed to grow up. When that movie came out, Myers was 30 and Carvey was 37. They played teenagers who never flew from the nest, still adrift after high school. I have friends from high school like that. My 20th high school reunion really brought it back to me: I felt lonely in a crowd of my own friends. Some of them were classic arrested development at about age 16. It isn't a pleasant sight for men in their late 30s. >...Regarding the 1960s, I've been meaning to read more on this, but there's so much to know... Regards, Dan Ja, I was there and I don't understand it. I now wonder if I was really there. I can offer an insight with respect to that article you posted written in 1979, for I was at University of Central Florida then, taking chemistry. A little later, in the spring of 1980, the political crowd started showing up on campus to get students registered to vote in the 1980 election, which was Reagan vs the incumbent Jimmy Carter. Students had always been reliably leftwing voters, but that year everything changed. I sat at a lunch table near enough I could watch and listen to the goings-on at the voter registration table. About half the students wanted to know if they could register with the other party besides the one they were selling. The recruiters were so puzzled! This wasn't supposed to happen, students are always always LIBERAL you silly idiots, it's TRADITION, now fall in line! But suddenly... the students didn't fall in line. They were split about evenly. So... the recruiters packed up their tables and left. They realized they were wasting their time if the students' vote was split right down the middle. That's my trace of popular culture I can offer from those years: something suddenly changed on campus right after the Iranians attacked the US embassy in Fall of 1979. Fun parting shot: if I were to choose two guys who carried themselves like gentlemen and were admirable human beings among politicians in my lifetime, it would be Reagan and Carter. If I let that influence my vote, those two would get mine. I don't care about that now, but then I did. Dan that was US pop culture in those days. spike From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 04:16:17 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 00:16:17 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Human Fetal Tissue Research In-Reply-To: References: <004e01d68b58$ccc56600$66503200$@rainier66.com> <002201d68b76$97afc910$c70f5b30$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Meanwhile, in China, they don't have qualms about such research. And this gives them a big advantage over us. But then, they are ruled by a regime that has made millions with the murder of people, and the selling of their organs on the world market. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 7:56 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 8:36 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > wrote: > > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 2:46 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> How is government-sponsored murder otherwise similar to 'social > >> justice'? It's almost like you're saying, 'I can't get my local school > >> to stop teaching about the US-Americans massacring natives in places > >> like Sand Creek.' (I'm using this example because a local school > >> teacher was called on the carpet for teaching about it in class. Some > >> parents actually didn't want their children to know about that part of > >> US history.) > > > > That is absolutely NOT what I'm saying. My point is a political agenda > is being promulgated in a tax payer funded public school. It's not about > preventing someone from teaching an ugly part of American history. It's > about filtering what is supposed to be academics through an overtly > political lens. I don't believe any political agendas should be driving > public school education. BLM and SPLC are both overtly political > organizations with very specific agendas that I don't happen to agree > with. I'm not spending tax dollars for indoctrination in a public school > setting. > > > > The point is there is little recourse to prevent even that. Attempting > to prevent government sponsered murder is an even bigger fool's errand than > that. > > Since it's government schooling, it's already politicized as others > pointed out. Anything, too, can be politicized. For me, if I had > children in school, the worry wouldn't be whether there was a > political agenda in place -- because I'd expect one -- but what > exactly was being taught and how. To be sure, I'd probably go the > route of homeschooling -- if I were inclined that way. (Don't intend > to have kids, so this is kind of idle speculation for me.:) > > By the way, I don't know the SPLC or the BLM movement's stand on > teaching about stuff like the Sand Creek massacre, but my guess is > they wouldn't be against that. So they don't run the schools. In fact, > in the case I mentioned -- and this is in Washington state which is > not a Red State or known for whitewashing American history -- the > parents complaining seemed to be conservative, no? I mean they're not > the kind of parents who'd likely write checks to the SPLC or join in > BLM protests by my reckoning. (Of course, this could be a case of > Right wingers seeing school history courses saying anything critical > about America as political propaganda from 'cultural Marxists' while > Left wingers seeing the same courses as hopelessly nationalistic > because they don't critique enough.) > > There's another issue here, though. And, yeah, I'm probably going > overboard with Caplan's work, but the impact of schooling on ideology > seems overstated. If schooling really shifted or defined people's > ideology, don't you think the political landscape would look very > different? Caplan shows schooling tends to have far less impact on > people's ideology than peers and generational influences. Also, > there's the decades old work of Philip Converse that most people -- > about two-thirds of them in his studies -- simply don't hold a > coherent ideology. (I knew a guy in college who seemed to fit into the > two-thirds: I could argue the libertarian take on specific issues with > him and he'd agree, but he never could rise above that. For instance, > he might concur on legalizing pot, but it'd be another long argument > on legalizing cocaine or LSD. The same thing with free trade: he might > agree on free trade with electronics, but food was another story. He > just never seemed to see how any of this stuff goes together. And I > don't believe he was just agreeing to avoid conflict.) > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 04:26:56 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 00:26:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] 9/11 In-Reply-To: <926C8567-D602-46EB-AF09-ACA3994BC663@gmail.com> References: <926C8567-D602-46EB-AF09-ACA3994BC663@gmail.com> Message-ID: I was in college, and my roommate told me about the attack. He was an intelligence MOS with the U.S. Army National Guard. The guy was immediately summoned by his commanders. I remember feeling numb from the experience of taking in what happened. And the feeling only grew as l watched the video footage. The only world event that affected me even more, was the fall of the Soviet Union. But then l was a product of the cold war. On Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 1:49 AM SR Ballard via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > In detention for not doing my homework... no recess unfortunately. > > My teacher was innocently grading papers and I was mindlessly watching the > TV muted, with the closed captions on. > > I couldn?t quite read whole sentences yet but when I saw the first tower > fall, I knew that something was really, really wrong. > > With uncharacteristic discretion I walked up to her desk and got her > attention, then pointed to her TV. > > I was the first person in my school to know. She buzzed the principal and > he immediately pulled the tornado drill, and each grade (100+ kids) got > huddled into their own interior room while parents were called and we got > sent home. > > I never saw 9/11 footage with the sound on until about 2011ish, and that?s > when it finally had an emotional impact on me, hearing the news anchors and > eyewitnesses and firemen freaking out. > > SR > > > On Sep 11, 2020, at 11:15 AM, Dave Sill via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > ?Where were you when the world stopped turning that September day?? > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 19 04:26:38 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2020 21:26:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <764b1380-a262-8633-cf26-96f2a1418522@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 18:40, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > I believe things also move faster too. If you grew up with email being > the main Internet interface, then social media came along and the > world is very different. I was surprised when for the first time I got a reply to my mail from across the continent in minutes. I thought it still took hours to relay. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 04:40:02 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 00:40:02 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <58B15C70-EDE5-48F1-9826-5A9C85877B5A@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <58B15C70-EDE5-48F1-9826-5A9C85877B5A@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: What is the point of becoming a professional therapist, if you can't prescribe psychiatric medications? That is where the money is at... I have a friend who is a psychiatrist, who likes to bring this up. On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 5:27 PM Henry Rivera via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Master?s level is an end point for many psychotherapists: Social Workers, > LPC, LMHC, LMFT to name a few FWIW. > > On Sep 15, 2020, at 3:57 PM, Dave Sill via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > ? > On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:47 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> My goal was only to highlight it's wasteful -- not to ask for a list >> of jobs where it's a base requirement. (Even in those cases, I >> wonder.) >> > > Understood. My point in replying wasn't to start a list that nobody wants, > but to give a concrete example of a job that does require a Masters. > > I agree that degree requirements are lazy and inefficient. > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Sat Sep 19 05:27:44 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 01:27:44 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <2C9DF5A3-370A-422E-A55D-2CBFE929181E@alumni.virginia.edu> Doctoral level therapists in private practice can charge $125 per hour and up. This is big enough money for many. Psychiatrists have to get in to, pay for, and tolerate the non-mental health curriculum of medical school which certainly did not appeal to me. There is also the newer development of prescribing privileges for psychologists, so it can be option for some depending on the state. The point I?d say is to help people, and people can be helped to make behavioral changes without medication. Many clients prefer this due to side effects, costs of medication, and med interactions. -Henry > On Sep 19, 2020, at 12:42 AM, John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? > What is the point of becoming a professional therapist, if you can't prescribe psychiatric medications? That is where the money is at... I have a friend who is a psychiatrist, who likes to bring this up. > >> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020, 5:27 PM Henry Rivera via extropy-chat wrote: >> Master?s level is an end point for many psychotherapists: Social Workers, LPC, LMHC, LMFT to name a few FWIW. >> >>>> On Sep 15, 2020, at 3:57 PM, Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: >>>> >>> ? >>>> On Tue, Sep 15, 2020 at 3:47 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> My goal was only to highlight it's wasteful -- not to ask for a list >>>> of jobs where it's a base requirement. (Even in those cases, I >>>> wonder.) >>> >>> Understood. My point in replying wasn't to start a list that nobody wants, but to give a concrete example of a job that does require a Masters. >>> >>> I agree that degree requirements are lazy and inefficient. >>> >>> -Dave >>> _______________________________________________ >>> extropy-chat mailing list >>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 05:42:20 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 01:42:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: How can anyone want a hereditary monarchy, if they are at all acquainted with world history? Lol Over the long-term, it is the road to civil war, horrible rulers and chaos... Michael Anissimov hurt his reputation with such ideas. I would like to give AGI a shot at ruling society, or at least co-ruling. But then they may get ideas about crime & punishment, and how to curb over-population, that chill our blood. I worry about how the rioting has not gone away, but may instead be a permanent part of the new normal. We have seen millions of dollars damage done from vandalism & looting, and many people hurt. But at the same time, l am skeptical about cities truly reforming their police forces, once the pressure to do so goes away. People/groups seem to demonize each other, rather than being able to communicate with those of differing views. This is not a good thing. A classic belief is that when this happens, those at the very top are pleased, because their game is divide and conquer. On Fri, Sep 18, 2020, 4:37 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 7:51 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat > wrote: > > At this point, I'm becoming more and more sympathetic to the idea of a > strong constitutional hereditary monarch, with a behavioral norm of > decisively and publicly crushing ursurpers. > > > > In a dysfunctional, divided democracy like the US appears to be > currently enjoying, we have a permanent ongoing cold civil war [with > occasional flashes of heat] as both major tribes unceasingly maneuver in > the plausible hope of attaining power for a few years at a time, until the > wheel turns again. This is /far/ more damaging to the lives of normal > people than one side simply decisively owning the government would be. > > > > I don't even really care if a future American king would be a member of > my political tribe at this point. A decent king can rule reasonably justly > over badly divided factions [see the Ottoman Empire for one good example, > not to mention the Romans], as long as the factions are effectively and > permanently disabused of the hope of eventually crushing their tribal > enemies. A hereditary king of a particular tribe is incentivized to refrain > from crushing the other tribes under his rule, in a way that a president or > senate majority leader is not. > I'm not sure the Roman or Ottoman empires are good examples of what > you want. For instance, Rome had many many bad emperors -- even > allowing that an autocrat is already a bad idea. It even had > disastrous internal wars during the empire, including one period where > the empire simply broke up into three parts for about a dozen years. > > The Ottoman empire relied on expansion and started to stagnate once it > stopped expanding. Yeah, it was a long decline, but I don't think it's > the kind of polity anyone here would want to live under. (Ditto for > the Roman Empire.) > > A problem with all monarchical systems is, of course, succession. You > might get a somewhat good ruler, by your lights, but that doesn't mean > the successor won't be as good. And Anton's citing Popper earlier > applies: your setup relies on a good and competent person being at the > top, but it's nearly impossible to ensure a bad person (or faction) > won't be on top. > > I also think, despite being no fan of the current US system, the > crisis is overstated. Yeah, presidential power has grown enormously > over both the long term and in the last two decades. And factionalism > seems extreme now. But looking at history, is it really like 1968 or > the 1930s? It seems like today the differences are overstated. > > And, if anything, I think the solution lies in the other direction: > diminishing if not abolishing the power of the state. I know that's a > tough sell, and I don't pretend to be the kind of person who can > persuade others. > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://www.amazon.com/Dan-Ust/e/B00J6HPX8M/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 09:39:21 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:39:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] neuroscience questions In-Reply-To: <9087C7DC-74E6-4054-AF20-A48EA99E4893@gmail.com> References: <9087C7DC-74E6-4054-AF20-A48EA99E4893@gmail.com> Message-ID: Spike, l understand what you mean about paragliding. I have a friend who was a cadet at the United States Air Force Academy, and on their glider team. He had a nasty crash and spent months in rehabilitation. The Air Force decided to expel him from their academy, despite him claiming a full recovery, and passing the physical fitness test. The Air Force leadership felt that down the road his old injuries might flare up. He was heartbroken and continued school where l was attending. Upon graduation, with a degree in Russian Studies, he applied for an officer's commission with the Air Force, Army and Navy, but they all said no, due to his accident. But those devil dogs, the Marines, said they needed bright officers, and so they would take a chance on him! Well, he did just fine and last l heard, he was serving as an intelligence officer in Afghanistan. Oh, and he married the daughter of the local Mormon singles group leader! Lol On Thu, Aug 27, 2020, 4:38 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Aug 26, 2020, at 12:10 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Does anyone know why it is that pro athletes and, just for another > example, classically trained musicians need to practice so much? > > My violinist friend said: "If I don't practice today, I know it. If I > don't practice tomorrow, you'll know it. If I don't practice the next day, > everyone will know it." > > Could it be that rarely practiced skills representing certain brain areas > get taken over by new concerns? I have no clue. > > > Your friend was paraphrasing Jascha Heifetz. (No worries. I?ve heard too > many musicians pass that one off without attribution since college.) > > By the way, my violin-playing was so bad, no one wanted me to practice. > (Please no on bring up the anecdote about George III. I?ve used that one > myself several times.) > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books at: > > http://author.to/DanUst > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 12:58:14 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:58:14 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:15 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately simulate the > number of atoms we have access to,* The processing power exists if time is not an issue for the guy running the simulation. It would make no difference to us if it takes his computer one second or 2 seconds, or 1 million years, or 1 thousand million billion trillion years to simulate one second of our world on his computer, we would have no way to tell the difference. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 14:34:38 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:34:38 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: But still, as you keep going up simulation levels, at some point processing power must run out, right? Unless each higher universe is successively larger and lengthier (...no laughing at that one!) On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 8:59 AM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:15 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *> I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately simulate the >> number of atoms we have access to,* > > > The processing power exists if time is not an issue for the guy running > the simulation. It would make no difference to us if it takes his > computer one second or 2 seconds, or 1 million years, or 1 thousand million > billion trillion years to simulate one second of our world on his computer, > we would have no way to tell the difference. > > John K Clark > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 16:31:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:31:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00dd01d68ea2$4bb9eb10$e32dc130$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness But still, as you keep going up simulation levels, at some point processing power must run out, right? Unless each higher universe is successively larger and lengthier (...no laughing at that one!) Hi Will, not if the higher levels can take longer to calculate everything. I think that was John?s argument to start with. If our perceived universe is analogous to a memory or storage device, then each (hyper)cubic Planck length is analogous to a memory location. If anything stored there stays there, it wouldn?t matter how long it takes to calculate every cycle. We would perceive each cycle as a chronon. It wouldn?t matter if it takes each next level up a skerjillion ?years? to calculate each chronon in the level below it, for the notion of time in that scenario is an illusion. spike On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 8:59 AM John Clark via extropy-chat > wrote: On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 10:15 AM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > wrote: > I don't believe the processing power exists to accurately simulate the number of atoms we have access to, The processing power exists if time is not an issue for the guy running the simulation. It would make no difference to us if it takes his computer one second or 2 seconds, or 1 million years, or 1 thousand million billion trillion years to simulate one second of our world on his computer, we would have no way to tell the difference. John K Clark _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 19 16:52:48 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 09:52:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent Message-ID: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> I just wanted to pass on a bit of information that seems to be under-reported by the media. The supposed health benefits of turmeric are apparently a complete sham. The main proponent of the use of turmeric/curcumin as a health supplement was a biochemist at M.D. Anderson named Bharat B. Aggarwal. He has since had 28(!) of his research studies retracted for falsifying and reusing data. After years of trying to reproduce his research, drug companies have declared curcumin a false lead and they are not going to waste any more of their money on it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Aggarwal Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 17:09:57 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:09:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: <00ed01d68ea7$b4105460$1c30fd20$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat >... drug companies have declared curcumin a false lead and they are not going to waste any more of their money on it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Aggarwal >...Stuart LaForge _______________________________________________ Cool thanks Stuart, good eye. A decade ago, I went with my intuition on this one. Some older friends were using turmeric and curcumin (both) and claiming all these benefits, but my intuition told me if those benefits were that easy to feel, they would be easy to measure, since lotsa people eat them. I never devoured either of them. I am always watching myself for wishful thinking: I wish we would find something to keep us smart as we age. But we still don't have it. I am still watching the Sturgis data and my fond hopes are holding up well: the bikers appear to be not dying. The epidemiology community continues to not write about it. The economists are not writing about it. I would think Harley Davidson would write about it, but they haven't as far as I know. spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 17:28:04 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 12:28:04 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: All I know is that I took naproxen and turmeric for osteoarthritis, and got alarmed at the data on heart attacks and naproxen, so I stopped it. I take two turmerics a day and have no hip or shoulder pain. (I have seen my osteoarthritis on Xray, so it's no placebo). My daughter takes it for knee pain and it works for her. I don't think all the good data comes from one source. The People's Pharmacy recommends it and they have a long history of good calls. A druggist and a person with a doctorate in physiology run it. Big Pharm won't mess with it because they can't make any money from it. Of course they are going to disparage it. bill w On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 11:54 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > I just wanted to pass on a bit of information that seems to be > under-reported by the media. The supposed health benefits of turmeric > are apparently a complete sham. The main proponent of the use of > turmeric/curcumin as a health supplement was a biochemist at M.D. > Anderson named Bharat B. Aggarwal. He has since had 28(!) of his > research studies retracted for falsifying and reusing data. After > years of trying to reproduce his research, drug companies have > declared curcumin a false lead and they are not going to waste any > more of their money on it. > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Aggarwal > > Stuart LaForge > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 18:12:59 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 18:12:59 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200919095248.Horde.zNTlUzgOiqE5Fazs74KPA6F@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 4:54 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > I just wanted to pass on a bit of information that seems to be > under-reported by the media. The supposed health benefits of turmeric > are apparently a complete sham. The main proponent of the use of > turmeric/curcumin as a health supplement was a biochemist at M.D. > Anderson named Bharat B. Aggarwal. He has since had 28(!) of his > research studies retracted for falsifying and reusing data. After > years of trying to reproduce his research, drug companies have > declared curcumin a false lead and they are not going to waste any > more of their money on it. > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Aggarwal I'm not so sure I'd take the drug companies word for it, but what about studies where he's not involved? Looking over a Life Extension article from four years ago seems to cite only one study where he's named -- and that's NOT in the retracted list, though I'd through it given that he's tainted it -- from my quick check. Of course, there might have been a ripple effect here: them citing or presuming his work and relying too much of his data or conclusions. Then again, maybe you phrased that wrong. It's not so much the drug companies, but the overall research community that hasn't found any good evidence for tumeric's supposed therapeutic powers. If you meant that, then I'd agree. At best, there's some suggestive stuff -- from my admittedly cursory review. At worst, it seems like a 'false lead' as you say. Regards, Dan From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 18:18:57 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 18:18:57 +0000 Subject: [ExI] More support for Out of Africa hypotheses Message-ID: https://gizmodo.com/120-000-year-old-human-footprints-mark-possible-migrati-1845108718 Note I used the plural. Regards, Dan From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 18:28:29 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 18:28:29 +0000 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:36 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat wrote: > But still, as you keep going up simulation levels, at some point processing power must run out, right? Unless each higher universe is successively larger and lengthier (...no laughing at that one!) That might be, but I believe John's point was from inside the simulation you couldn't tell... In the same way that say, running a complicated smoke simulation model on one system that runs half as fast as another (because of resources, processor speed, etc.) will still give the same simulation and results as another just at a slower speed from our perspective. But inside the model, step n follows step n-1 regardless of whether that takes one millisecond or two, no? And how from the inside would you know processing power was reaching its limit? You might come up against a wall if you were running a simulation -- adding more complexity into the simulation you're presumably part of. But would that tell you you're in a maxxed out simulation as opposed to telling you that your technology isn't advanced enough (imagine running today's smoke simulation models on 1940s computers) or that there really are physical (non-simulation ones) limits on what you can simulate? Regards, Dan From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 18:58:10 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 18:58:10 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 5:44 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > How can anyone want a hereditary monarchy, if they are at all acquainted > with world history? Lol Over the long-term, it is the road to civil war, horrible > rulers and chaos... Michael Anissimov hurt his reputation with such ideas. Through a highly selective reading of history (though not necessarily intentionally so) that focuses on the best cases and ignore even the bad aspects of those? > I would like to give AGI a shot at ruling society, or at least co-ruling. But then > they may get ideas about crime & punishment, and how to curb over-population, > that chill our blood. I've often heard the scenario put forth to Biblical literalists of a robot programmed to enforce biblical rules. Would they care to live under that robot's rule? > I worry about how the rioting has not gone away, but may instead be a permanent > part of the new normal. We have seen millions of dollars damage done from > vandalism & looting, and many people hurt. I wonder if that's not being overstated or if it's ignoring the past. >From my reading of history, the riots of the 1960s and 1970s seem far worse. For instance, I live in Seattle (and not in Oz as someone here thought) and I don't see a city wrecked because of the protests. In fact, if you're not near the major protest areas and were otherwise ignorant about them you might wonder what's all the fuss. A few square blocks on Capitol Hill, for example, amount to something less than 1% of the city. Yet if you only know this from news footage you might presume people in Seattle are under siege by protesters and the whole city is burning down. > But at the same time, l am skeptical about cities truly reforming their police forces, once the pressure to do so goes away. There are a few cities that have 'defunded' their police. Camden, NJ did, though that was years ago. But there's been a lot of effective pushback by police unions and lobbyists that pretty much stopped in getting rid of qualified immunity in places like Virginia. See: https://reason.com/2020/09/16/virginia-democrats-declined-to-end-qualified-immunity-police-unions-are-alive-and-well/ > People/groups seem to demonize each other, rather than being able to > communicate with those of differing views. This is not a good thing. A > classic belief is that when this happens, those at the very top are pleased, > because their game is divide and conquer. That might be, but the police seem to deserve some demonization here, especially after decades or more of being treated as only having a 'few bad apples' -- bad apples that almost always are protected and promoted. And there's a lot of police misconduct aside from killing people. Things like this: https://reason.com/2019/02/09/the-chemists-and-the-cover-up/ A great book on some of this is _Failed Evidence: Why Law Enforcement Resists Science_ by David Harris. It's a few years old now, but it shows how police and prosecutors rarely QA their work leading to lives being ruined. Is there any other legal profession anyone interacts with where you might end up in prison, losing everything, wrongly on an offenders list, seriously injured, your dog shot, or even dead almost as a matter of routine? Regards, Dan From steinberg.will at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 18:59:26 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 14:59:26 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <2C9DF5A3-370A-422E-A55D-2CBFE929181E@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <2C9DF5A3-370A-422E-A55D-2CBFE929181E@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: I just wanted to pipe in to say that jarring change is a commonly used method to collect spare coins. I know many people who have a change jar, even got one myself ;) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 19:07:35 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:07:35 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The assumption is that there are physical limits. Here is why I'd assume so: Di lemma: A) the simulator's universe is the same as ours B) the simulator's universe allows for computation greater than ours If A, eventually there will be a limit that we can conceive if B, there has to be some reason the universe allows greater computation. Staying on B, now apply the simulation argument to that universe, and use the same dilemma. That means the universe is either the same as theirs (and will have a limit as each simulation includes trillions of simulations which all include trillions of simulations &c.) or their simulator has a universe which allows for more computation due to some reason. I believe these reasons would be subject to some kind of laws of physics, and could only accept infinite levels of simulation if the higher universes were infinitely large or of infinite duration. Which may be its own issue. WHAT'S MORE, if those worlds are sufficiently large, it stands to reason that there will be infinite intelligent civilizations in those universes. So if the simulations run IN that universe mimic the simulations in the above universe, those people would have a good chance at being one of those civilizations before simulation is developed, and so no longer can be applied Bostrom's trilemma in order to show they must be in a simulation. In essence, even if your universe is finite, infinite sim levels would appear to me to mean that at some point the master universe is infinite, but this leads to the fact that if you are in a universe which would require an eventual infinite universe of your master, then you are just as likely to be a regular, physical civilization in that universe as you are a simulation in one of the levels (because that universe is literally infinite). Therefore repeatedly applying the simulation argument with SOME sort of laws of physics in every universe leads to a contradiction. On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:29 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:36 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat > wrote: > > But still, as you keep going up simulation levels, at some point > processing power must run out, right? Unless each higher universe is > successively larger and lengthier (...no laughing at that one!) > > That might be, but I believe John's point was from inside the > simulation you couldn't tell... In the same way that say, running a > complicated smoke simulation model on one system that runs half as > fast as another (because of resources, processor speed, etc.) will > still give the same simulation and results as another just at a slower > speed from our perspective. But inside the model, step n follows step > n-1 regardless of whether that takes one millisecond or two, no? And > how from the inside would you know processing power was reaching its > limit? You might come up against a wall if you were running a > simulation -- adding more complexity into the simulation you're > presumably part of. But would that tell you you're in a maxxed out > simulation as opposed to telling you that your technology isn't > advanced enough (imagine running today's smoke simulation models on > 1940s computers) or that there really are physical (non-simulation > ones) limits on what you can simulate? > > Regards, > > Dan > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From steinberg.will at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 19:08:33 2020 From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:08:33 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Typo, meant to say "WHAT'S MORE, if those worlds are infinite" not "sufficiently large" On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 3:07 PM Will Steinberg wrote: > The assumption is that there are physical limits. Here is why I'd assume > so: > > Di lemma: > > A) the simulator's universe is the same as ours > > B) the simulator's universe allows for computation greater than ours > > If A, eventually there will be a limit that we can conceive > > if B, there has to be some reason the universe allows greater computation. > > Staying on B, now apply the simulation argument to that universe, and use > the same dilemma. That means the universe is either the same as theirs > (and will have a limit as each simulation includes trillions of simulations > which all include trillions of simulations &c.) or their simulator has a > universe which allows for more computation due to some reason. > > I believe these reasons would be subject to some kind of laws of physics, > and could only accept infinite levels of simulation if the higher universes > were infinitely large or of infinite duration. Which may be its own issue. > > WHAT'S MORE, if those worlds are sufficiently large, it stands to reason > that there will be infinite intelligent civilizations in those universes. > So if the simulations run IN that universe mimic the simulations in the > above universe, those people would have a good chance at being one of those > civilizations before simulation is developed, and so no longer can be > applied Bostrom's trilemma in order to show they must be in a simulation. > > In essence, even if your universe is finite, infinite sim levels would > appear to me to mean that at some point the master universe is infinite, > but this leads to the fact that if you are in a universe which would > require an eventual infinite universe of your master, then you are just as > likely to be a regular, physical civilization in that universe as you are a > simulation in one of the levels (because that universe is literally > infinite). > > Therefore repeatedly applying the simulation argument with SOME sort of > laws of physics in every universe leads to a contradiction. > > On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:29 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:36 PM Will Steinberg via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > But still, as you keep going up simulation levels, at some point >> processing power must run out, right? Unless each higher universe is >> successively larger and lengthier (...no laughing at that one!) >> >> That might be, but I believe John's point was from inside the >> simulation you couldn't tell... In the same way that say, running a >> complicated smoke simulation model on one system that runs half as >> fast as another (because of resources, processor speed, etc.) will >> still give the same simulation and results as another just at a slower >> speed from our perspective. But inside the model, step n follows step >> n-1 regardless of whether that takes one millisecond or two, no? And >> how from the inside would you know processing power was reaching its >> limit? You might come up against a wall if you were running a >> simulation -- adding more complexity into the simulation you're >> presumably part of. But would that tell you you're in a maxxed out >> simulation as opposed to telling you that your technology isn't >> advanced enough (imagine running today's smoke simulation models on >> 1940s computers) or that there really are physical (non-simulation >> ones) limits on what you can simulate? >> >> Regards, >> >> Dan >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 19:20:31 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:20:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] simulation stat goofiness In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020, 2:30 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > millisecond or two, no? And > how from the inside would you know processing power was reaching its > limit? You might come up against a wall if you were running a > simulation -- adding more complexity into the simulation you're > presumably part of. But would that tell you you're in a maxxed out > simulation as opposed to telling you that your technology isn't > advanced enough (imagine running today's smoke simulation models on > 1940s computers) or that there really are physical (non-simulation > ones) limits on what you can simulate? > In our own simulations, we might notice that clocks skip a moment when the lagged simulation is caught up to the clock at the hardware level. Awareness of skips might depend on memory that is also prone to manipulation. Maybe you trust what you believe is "real" experience or maybe you accept what the "error corrected" world tells you was a subjective observation mistake. I don't have words to articulate how I understand the multiple not-yet-too-divergent alternatives to 'now' - but I imagine the way we're using quantum computing to search certain classes of solution space is exploiting a lower-level of the universal computing hardware as an efficiency boost to all the alternates simultaneously. Some computations are cached (or memo-ized) around a context (typically some "key") so is it possible that much of what we consider deterministic is also an efficiency boost to retrieve already- computed results? I also imagine the complexity associated with simulating every particle of gas might be very precisely accurate... but most of the usage of predictive power to approximate collective behavior of the gas is done with a few macro parameters in a formula in which we so confidently refer to as "gas laws." So if I were to bet on alien computing optimizations, I'd guess particle simulations are run in one container only until a good-enough formula is found to predict next states of the simulation within some acceptable tradeoff between fidelity and resources. Now I want to ask if we're experiencing the full rendering or the optimized shortcuts? (.bmp vs .jpg, .flacc vs .mp3, etc.) > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 19 21:03:22 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 14:03:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent Message-ID: <20200919140322.Horde.Q-F0_Gb7g6_vlgR4pkmJl_k@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Bill Wallace: > All I know is that I took naproxen and turmeric for osteoarthritis, and got > alarmed at the data on heart attacks and naproxen, so I stopped it. I take > two turmerics a day and have no hip or shoulder pain. (I have seen my > osteoarthritis on Xray, so it's no placebo). My daughter takes it for knee > pain and it works for her. I don't think all the good data comes from one > source. > > The People's Pharmacy recommends it and they have a long history of good > calls. A druggist and a person with a doctorate in physiology run it. > > Big Pharm won't mess with it because they can't make any money from it. Of > course they are going to disparage it. Turmeric is still non-toxic so if it is working for you, then keep using it. Drug companies have their own sets of biases, and what is profitable for them is not always what is best for you. Curcumin does seem to work with cells in a petri dish, it just has trouble getting out of the digestive tract and getting to where it needs to be in the body without getting completely messed up by the liver when eaten. Perhaps turmeric works better when used as an ingredient in food than when taken in pill form due to the potentiation effects of other ingredients. Stuart LaForge From gsantostasi at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 21:28:20 2020 From: gsantostasi at gmail.com (Giovanni Santostasi) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 14:28:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200919140322.Horde.Q-F0_Gb7g6_vlgR4pkmJl_k@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200919140322.Horde.Q-F0_Gb7g6_vlgR4pkmJl_k@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: The anti-inflamatory role of curcumin has been proven in hundreds of papers. Here a review: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5664031/ The fact there was a fraudulent researcher among the army of people around the world experimenting with this substance doesn't make curcumin health claims fraudulent in general. The main problem is bio-availability but it can be resolved with mixing with other compounds. Giovanni On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 2:04 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Quoting Bill Wallace: > > > All I know is that I took naproxen and turmeric for osteoarthritis, and > got > > alarmed at the data on heart attacks and naproxen, so I stopped it. I > take > > two turmerics a day and have no hip or shoulder pain. (I have seen my > > osteoarthritis on Xray, so it's no placebo). My daughter takes it for > knee > > pain and it works for her. I don't think all the good data comes from > one > > source. > > > > The People's Pharmacy recommends it and they have a long history of good > > calls. A druggist and a person with a doctorate in physiology run it. > > > > Big Pharm won't mess with it because they can't make any money from it. > Of > > course they are going to disparage it. > > Turmeric is still non-toxic so if it is working for you, then keep > using it. Drug companies have their own sets of biases, and what is > profitable for them is not always what is best for you. Curcumin does > seem to work with cells in a petri dish, it just has trouble getting > out of the digestive tract and getting to where it needs to be in the > body without getting completely messed up by the liver when eaten. > Perhaps turmeric works better when used as an ingredient in food than > when taken in pill form due to the potentiation effects of other > ingredients. > > Stuart LaForge > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 23:27:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 16:27:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again Message-ID: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> Owwwww, dang, this wasn't supposed to happen: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 33297 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 19 23:30:01 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 16:30:01 -0700 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again In-Reply-To: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> References: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <001601d68edc$cc4c4c70$64e4e550$@rainier66.com> And Russia too: -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 31828 bytes Desc: not available URL: From interzone at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 23:33:17 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 19:33:17 -0400 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again In-Reply-To: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> References: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Take a look at France, Spain, or most of Europe as well. I'm curious what John has to say about the situation. On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > > > > Owwwww, dang, this wasn?t supposed to happen: > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 33297 bytes Desc: not available URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 19 23:36:48 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2020 23:36:48 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200919140322.Horde.Q-F0_Gb7g6_vlgR4pkmJl_k@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200919140322.Horde.Q-F0_Gb7g6_vlgR4pkmJl_k@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 9:05 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > Quoting Bill Wallace: > > > All I know is that I took naproxen and turmeric for osteoarthritis, and got > > alarmed at the data on heart attacks and naproxen, so I stopped it. I take > > two turmerics a day and have no hip or shoulder pain. (I have seen my > > osteoarthritis on Xray, so it's no placebo). My daughter takes it for knee > > pain and it works for her. I don't think all the good data comes from one > > source. > > > > The People's Pharmacy recommends it and they have a long history of good > > calls. A druggist and a person with a doctorate in physiology run it. > > > > Big Pharm won't mess with it because they can't make any money from it. Of > > course they are going to disparage it. > > Turmeric is still non-toxic so if it is working for you, then keep > using it. Drug companies have their own sets of biases, and what is > profitable for them is not always what is best for you. Curcumin does > seem to work with cells in a petri dish, it just has trouble getting > out of the digestive tract and getting to where it needs to be in the > body without getting completely messed up by the liver when eaten. > Perhaps turmeric works better when used as an ingredient in food than > when taken in pill form due to the potentiation effects of other > ingredients. It's funny that you mention getting it via food because looking over the LEF pages I saw a complaint about their curcumin product given someone an upset stomach. I wonder if they're were taking it on an empty stomach or with not enough food and drink to buffer it. Regards, Dan From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 06:49:03 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 07:49:03 +0100 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again In-Reply-To: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> References: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 at 00:30, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Owwwww, dang, this wasn?t supposed to happen: > > _______________________________________________ Yes it was! Remember that most of these cases show little or no symptoms and very very few are hospitalised or die. Think of it as thousands of people being vaccinated every day. They will all show positive detections. When a large enough percentage of the population has a positive detection and becomes a 'case' with no symptoms, herd immunity happens and the pandemic will be over. The virus will still be around, so at risk people will still have to take precautions until a vaccination is available. BillK From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 07:34:50 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 03:34:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Will the world learn the necessary lessons of this pandemic? Message-ID: Will this pandemic cause the governments of the world to learn the basic lessons of pandemic prevention and control? Will China learn to safely run and regulate bio research labs? And will China and other nations stop having wet live kill meat markets? And next time will China and America take action promptly to stop a pandemic from happening? I worry that it will be business as usual, within a few years time of the pandemic ending. And in terms of loss of life and income, the poor have felt the pain far more than others. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 07:40:42 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 00:40:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Will the world learn the necessary lessons of this pandemic? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Years? Try weeks - if "the pandemic ending" can be measured down to a week or two. On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:36 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Will this pandemic cause the governments of the world to learn the basic > lessons of pandemic prevention and control? > > Will China learn to safely run and regulate bio research labs? And will > China and other nations stop having wet live kill meat markets? > > And next time will China and America take action promptly to stop a > pandemic from happening? > > I worry that it will be business as usual, within a few years time of the > pandemic ending. > > And in terms of loss of life and income, the poor have felt the pain far > more than others. > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sun Sep 20 10:11:24 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 11:11:24 +0100 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 20/09/2020 00:37, Dyklan Distasio wrote: > Take a look at France, Spain, or most of Europe as well.? ?I'm curious > what John has to say about the situation. What's important is not the number of people being infected ('cases'), but the number of people dying. More infections are a good thing, if they don't kill people. So where are the mortality figures? They are what's important, and what should be informing lockdown policies. Infection numbers are meaningless without mortality numbers, and we won't be able to tell if the virus is evolving to be less lethal (or I should say /how fast/ it's evolving to be non-lethal, as it's inevitable that it will). -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 11:48:49 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 07:48:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] jarring change In-Reply-To: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> References: <00d301d689f1$dce16150$96a423f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 13, 2020 at 1:20 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *> What is the most change-averse institutions in modern society? * > It would be hard to beat the Catholic Church in that category. The Republican Party claims to be change-averse but they arn't really, they take great pride declaring how conservative they are and yet they want a extreamly radical change in the way society has handled abortion for the last half century and the way we've funded government since 1835. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 12:22:43 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 08:22:43 -0400 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 3:00 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> There are a few cities that have 'defunded' their police. Camden, NJ > did, though that was years ago.* That was in 2012. The Camden police were notoriously corrupt and the city council got fed up, so they fired most of the officers and reduced the police budget by tens of millions of dollars and put the money saved into affordable housing, addiction treatment, and mental health services. Since 2012 violent crime in Camden has been reduced by 42% and the number of official complaints about police using excessive force have fallen from 64 to 3. John K Clark > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 13:03:38 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 21:03:38 +0800 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: > People/groups seem to demonize each other, rather than being able to > communicate with those of differing views. This is not a good thing. A > classic belief is that when this happens, those at the very top are pleased, > because their game is divide and conquer. When I wrote the above statement, I was referring to the average angry person on social media, or in a heated argument on the street. I fully agree with you in regards to the police and how they are often out of control and dangerous. When I talk about those at the very top, I mean those who see the police themselves as their useful pawns to keep the proles in line. >I wonder if that's not being overstated or if it's ignoring the past. >From my reading of history, the riots of the 1960s and 1970s seem far >worse. For instance, I live in Seattle (and not in Oz as someone here >thought) and I don't see a city wrecked because of the protests. And yet insurers are saying the damage from the vandalism and looting exceeds one billion dollars. And this included a science fiction bookshop I had always hoped to visit. Please consider donating to their rebuilding fund... https://locusmag.com/2020/05/uncle-hugos-bookstore-burned-down/ On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:00 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 5:44 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat > wrote: > > How can anyone want a hereditary monarchy, if they are at all acquainted > > with world history? Lol Over the long-term, it is the road to civil war, > horrible > > rulers and chaos... Michael Anissimov hurt his reputation with such > ideas. > > Through a highly selective reading of history (though not necessarily > intentionally so) that focuses on the best cases and ignore even the > bad aspects of those? > > > I would like to give AGI a shot at ruling society, or at least > co-ruling. But then > > they may get ideas about crime & punishment, and how to curb > over-population, > > that chill our blood. > > I've often heard the scenario put forth to Biblical literalists of a > robot programmed to enforce biblical rules. Would they care to live > under that robot's rule? > > > I worry about how the rioting has not gone away, but may instead be a > permanent > > part of the new normal. We have seen millions of dollars damage done from > > vandalism & looting, and many people hurt. > > I wonder if that's not being overstated or if it's ignoring the past. > From my reading of history, the riots of the 1960s and 1970s seem far > worse. For instance, I live in Seattle (and not in Oz as someone here > thought) and I don't see a city wrecked because of the protests. In > fact, if you're not near the major protest areas and were otherwise > ignorant about them you might wonder what's all the fuss. A few square > blocks on Capitol Hill, for example, amount to something less than 1% > of the city. Yet if you only know this from news footage you might > presume people in Seattle are under siege by protesters and the whole > city is burning down. > > > But at the same time, l am skeptical about cities truly reforming their > police forces, once the pressure to do so goes away. > > There are a few cities that have 'defunded' their police. Camden, NJ > did, though that was years ago. But there's been a lot of effective > pushback by police unions and lobbyists that pretty much stopped in > getting rid of qualified immunity in places like Virginia. See: > > > https://reason.com/2020/09/16/virginia-democrats-declined-to-end-qualified-immunity-police-unions-are-alive-and-well/ > > > People/groups seem to demonize each other, rather than being able to > > communicate with those of differing views. This is not a good thing. A > > classic belief is that when this happens, those at the very top are > pleased, > > because their game is divide and conquer. > > That might be, but the police seem to deserve some demonization here, > especially after decades or more of being treated as only having a > 'few bad apples' -- bad apples that almost always are protected and > promoted. And there's a lot of police misconduct aside from killing > people. Things like this: > > https://reason.com/2019/02/09/the-chemists-and-the-cover-up/ > > A great book on some of this is _Failed Evidence: Why Law Enforcement > Resists Science_ by David Harris. It's a few years old now, but it > shows how police and prosecutors rarely QA their work leading to lives > being ruined. Is there any other legal profession anyone interacts > with where you might end up in prison, losing everything, wrongly on > an offenders list, seriously injured, your dog shot, or even dead > almost as a matter of routine? > > Regards, > > Dan > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 13:34:06 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 06:34:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] uk being strafed again In-Reply-To: References: <000e01d68edc$6c74edc0$455ec940$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005501d68f52$b6b31c10$24195430$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] uk being strafed again On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 at 00:30, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Owwwww, dang, this wasn?t supposed to happen: > > _______________________________________________ Yes it was! Remember that most of these cases show little or no symptoms and very very few are hospitalised or die. Think of it as thousands of people being vaccinated every day. They will all show positive detections. When a large enough percentage of the population has a positive detection and becomes a 'case' with no symptoms, herd immunity happens and the pandemic will be over. The virus will still be around, so at risk people will still have to take precautions until a vaccination is available. BillK _______________________________________________ Thanks for that BillK. One of the lessons learned: if we keep politics out of it, science has a chance to find out what is really going on. Consider that odd Sturgis signal. After the bikers went away, the city of Sturgis offered free covid testing. There were enough tests for 1300 locals, 20% of the population of Sturgis. 650 chose to get a test. Of the 650 tested, positives were 26, which is about 4% of those tested. Statewide average is somewhere in the 3% to 7% range. Only when we filter away the politics can we get at the science. spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 16:51:07 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 11:51:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger Message-ID: One of my answers on Quora: I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could excise it from the gene pool. It is irrational and often makes us do things we regret later, if we are able to (we attack those stronger and pay the price). Sure, it can make your fighting hormones flow, and that can be an advantage in an attack, but just a bit overdone and it can be disaster. Among the worst is getting mad with children because they are not behaving as you want them to, and so you hit them, often too hard. Or someone weaker, usually, like a woman. Yes, I am aware that women can hit men and abuse them. It?s just really good for nothing in the modern world. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 17:07:32 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 10:07:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <001801d68f70$880ed1b0$982c7510$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] anger One of my answers on Quora: >? anger has no place in modern society and wish we could excise it from the gene pool? Think of your worst moment, the time when you did or said something you really really wish you hadn?t done or said, some action you really super-regret, perhaps a moment of truth that caused you sufficient introspection it convinced you to change something in your life. Think of what you were feeling at the time. Were you angry? Or was it lust got away from you? Repeat thought experiment with and without any circumstances such as chemical influence, or pain. If your worst moment was at the funeral of someone dear, well, let that be a separate case. We do things in pain and grief sometimes. You don?t hafta write about it, but which emotion was it? Guessing in most cases it was either lust or anger. Mighta been stupid carelessness, but often it?s lust or anger. What other emotion would lead to your life?s worst moment? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 17:56:52 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 13:56:52 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Bob Woodward's new book "Rage" Message-ID: I finished Bob Woodward's book "Rage" and I highly recommend it. I found it to be simultaneously fascinating and horrifying, like watching a grisly car wreck. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 18:24:25 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:24:25 -0400 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:53 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > *> I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could > excise it from the gene pool.* > It's the fight or flight response, so the opposite of anger is not love it's fear and if you got rid of one you'd have to get rid of them both. And I don't think a being could survive for long without fear or anger. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 18:28:39 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 13:28:39 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Fear and anger are not opposites, physiologically. Sure, can't get rid of fear, though. That would be like a person who cannot feel pain. bill w On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 1:25 PM John Clark wrote: > On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:53 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> *> I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could >> excise it from the gene pool.* >> > It's the fight or flight response, so the opposite of anger is not love > it's fear and if you got rid of one you'd have to get rid of them both. And > I don't think a being could survive for long without fear or anger. > > John K Clark > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sun Sep 20 18:54:33 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 11:54:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200920115433.Horde.jGYJ40w_QDSj0VRhKIMCTIP@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Giovanni Santostasi: > The anti-inflamatory role of curcumin has been proven in hundreds of > papers. > Here a review: > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5664031/ > > The fact there was a fraudulent researcher among the army of people around > the world experimenting with this substance doesn't make curcumin health > claims fraudulent in general. > The main problem is bio-availability but it can be resolved with mixing > with other compounds. You are right, Giovanni. After conducting an independent literature review for studies not including Aggarwal or referencing his work, I still found some convincing studies and reviews for positive effects of curcumin in both Alzheimer's disease and osteoarthritis: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6520588/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3964021/ As a result of, I am going to keep supplementing with turmeric in my own diet as a prophylactic. Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 19:01:31 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 12:01:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> ?> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] anger On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:53 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > wrote: > I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could excise it from the gene pool. >?It's the fight or flight response, so the opposite of anger is not love it's fear and if you got rid of one you'd have to get rid of them both. And I don't think a being could survive for long without fear or anger. John K Clark I don?t see how fear and anger are opposite. I would consider them more similar than opposite. I don?t think a person needs the emotion of anger at all, but could keep fear (enough to stay sane.) I have known people who are very nearly devoid of anger (my father was like that (if he had a trace of it, I never saw it in 17 years.)) spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 19:37:09 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:37:09 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I have known people who are very nearly devoid of anger (my father was like that (if he had a trace of it, I never saw it in 17 years.)) spike Your Dad - totally cool and calm when you misbehaved? Let your mother do all the emotional stuff? bill w On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 2:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > ?> *On Behalf Of *John Clark via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] anger > > > > On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:53 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *> **I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could > excise it from the gene pool.* > > >?It's the fight or flight response, so the opposite of anger is not love > it's fear and if you got rid of one you'd have to get rid of them both. And > I don't think a being could survive for long without fear or anger. > > > > John K Clark > > > > > > > > I don?t see how fear and anger are opposite. I would consider them more > similar than opposite. > > > > I don?t think a person needs the emotion of anger at all, but could keep > fear (enough to stay sane.) > > > > I have known people who are very nearly devoid of anger (my father was > like that (if he had a trace of it, I never saw it in 17 years.)) > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 20 19:37:33 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 12:37:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] knowledge of a place and time and face, was: diamonds falling In-Reply-To: <002801d68770$7226f150$5674d3f0$@rainier66.com> References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.co m> <002801d68770$7226f150$5674d3f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-10 05:46, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > This was Petula Clark's finest hour: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws-dbq0CDtc I had no idea what she looked like, so thanks for that. But what burned the song into my mind was this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVmNm0dlmb0 Legend has it that this video's creator was hired to do a commercial for a department store; see if you can spot the moment when the client backed out. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 19:40:03 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:40:03 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Turmeric health claims fraudulent In-Reply-To: <20200920115433.Horde.jGYJ40w_QDSj0VRhKIMCTIP@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200920115433.Horde.jGYJ40w_QDSj0VRhKIMCTIP@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: Just about everything that goes wrong with the body has some link to inflammation, I have read. I take just about every anti-inflammatory that has any good data. Re turmeric; Several thousand years of anecdotal evidence, which could still be wrong, but..... bill w On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 1:56 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Quoting Giovanni Santostasi: > > > The anti-inflamatory role of curcumin has been proven in hundreds of > > papers. > > Here a review: > > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5664031/ > > > > The fact there was a fraudulent researcher among the army of people > around > > the world experimenting with this substance doesn't make curcumin health > > claims fraudulent in general. > > The main problem is bio-availability but it can be resolved with mixing > > with other compounds. > > You are right, Giovanni. After conducting an independent literature > review for studies not including Aggarwal or referencing his work, I > still found some convincing studies and reviews for positive effects > of curcumin in both Alzheimer's disease and osteoarthritis: > > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6520588/ > > https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3964021/ > > As a result of, I am going to keep supplementing with turmeric in my > own diet as a prophylactic. > > Stuart LaForge > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 19:59:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 12:59:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <010301d68f88$90ac3f20$b204bd60$@rainier66.com> >?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] anger I have known people who are very nearly devoid of anger (my father was like that (if he had a trace of it, I never saw it in 17 years.)) spike Your Dad - totally cool and calm when you misbehaved? Let your mother do all the emotional stuff? bill w Ja, my mother was a classic over-reactor, emotions in overdrive much of the time over nothing. BillW, since you are into this sorta thing: seeing these two convinced me that our anger set-point is mostly genetic. My brother and I are close in age, had nearly identical upbringing. But he has a moderately hot temper but I don?t. He is a moderate pessimist but I am not. I am told I am the classic dreamer-idealist unrealistic optimist. I don?t recall ever signing up for any particular disposition, but rather suspect that it is nearly all genetic rather than influence. The luck of the draw perhaps. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 20:11:19 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:11:19 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 1:01 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > > People/groups seem to demonize each other, rather than being able to > > communicate with those of differing views. This is not a good thing. A > > classic belief is that when this happens, those at the very top are pleased, > > because their game is divide and conquer. > > When I wrote the above statement, I was referring to the average angry person > on social media, or in a heated argument on the street. I fully agree with you > in regards to the police and how they are often out of control and dangerous. > When I talk about those at the very top, I mean those who see the police > themselves as their useful pawns to keep the proles in line. If you look at the origin of the police, it's not too far from the truth to say they were originally formed 'to keep the proles in line.' Like many state institutions, there's the sort of immaculate conception view of how they originated that doesn't match actual history. The immaculate conception view tends to be what most people think about the institution -- for instance, the War of Drugs -- when the actual history is usually messier and bad. In the case of the police, see: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/the-origins-of-policing-in-the-united-states/ >> I wonder if that's not being overstated or if it's ignoring the past. >> From my reading of history, the riots of the 1960s and 1970s seem far >> worse. For instance, I live in Seattle (and not in Oz as someone here >> thought) and I don't see a city wrecked because of the protests. > > And yet insurers are saying the damage from the vandalism and looting > exceeds one billion dollars. And this included a science fiction bookshop > I had always hoped to visit. That was the supposed cost of one riot in 1992: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Rebuilding_Los_Angeles I'm not sure if that's inflation-adjusted. If it isn't, then it's over $1.85 billion. So, put that into perspective: the rioting now all together is the cost of one riot in 1992. And 1992 wasn't back in the 1960s and 1970s. My guess would be riots back then would be as costlier than the 1992 riot. This isn't to minimize the damage caused by vandalism and looting. But your earlier statement was diagnosing the current riots as 'a permanent part of the new normal.' I think they're not. I believe this because of what happened with rioting that was far more extensive in previous times. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 20:12:42 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 13:12:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] knowledge of a place and time and face, was: diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.co m> <002801d68770$7226f150$5674d3f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <012501d68f8a$65f40cc0$31dc2640$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- ...> On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat >...I had no idea what she looked like, so thanks for that. But what burned the song into my mind was this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVmNm0dlmb0 >...Legend has it that this video's creator was hired to do a commercial for a department store; see if you can spot the moment when the client backed out. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org _______________________________________________ Anton I can imagine that bit at 1:23, the Washington monument smiting the Jefferson memorial causing a shopping establishment to get a bit squirmy. Cool video, great music however. Petula's voice was so cool. She was a drool-jerker in 1960. spike From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 20:16:19 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:16:19 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <010301d68f88$90ac3f20$b204bd60$@rainier66.com> References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <010301d68f88$90ac3f20$b204bd60$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I can find nothing to disagree with or to add to. bill w On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:01 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *>?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] anger > > > > I have known people who are very nearly devoid of anger (my father was > like that (if he had a trace of it, I never saw it in 17 years.)) > > > > spike > > > > Your Dad - totally cool and calm when you misbehaved? Let your mother do > all the emotional stuff? bill w > > Ja, my mother was a classic over-reactor, emotions in overdrive much of > the time over nothing. > > BillW, since you are into this sorta thing: seeing these two convinced me > that our anger set-point is mostly genetic. My brother and I are close in > age, had nearly identical upbringing. But he has a moderately hot temper > but I don?t. He is a moderate pessimist but I am not. I am told I am the > classic dreamer-idealist unrealistic optimist. > > I don?t recall ever signing up for any particular disposition, but rather > suspect that it is nearly all genetic rather than influence. The luck of > the draw perhaps. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 20:24:56 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:24:56 +0000 Subject: [ExI] communism/authoritarianism In-Reply-To: References: <75cae681-cb20-c691-f529-7f1c6c6b499d@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 12:23 PM John Clark wrote: > On Sat, Sep 19, 2020 at 3:00 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> There are a few cities that have 'defunded' their police. Camden, NJ did, though that was years ago. > > That was in 2012. The Camden police were notoriously corrupt and the > city council got fed up, so they fired most of the officers and reduced > the police budget by tens of millions of dollars and put the money saved > into affordable housing, addiction treatment, and mental health services. > Since 2012 violent crime in Camden has been reduced by 42% and the > number of official complaints about police using excessive force have > fallen from 64 to 3. I'm not sure why you brought that up and then left out the rest of my paragraph, which was: 'But there's been a lot of effective pushback by police unions and lobbyists that pretty much stopped in getting rid of qualified immunity in places like Virginia. See: https://reason.com/2020/09/16/virginia-democrats-declined-to-end-qualified-immunity-police-unions-are-alive-and-well/ ' Let me emphasize here: yes, some places have 'defunded' their police -- and with good reason and good results -- but the major takeaway here at this point is this is rare and police unions and police lobbyists have managed to pushback and overall reforms. Yes, they've lost in a few places like Cambden, but when reforms were tried at the state and federal level, so far, the police unions have won the day. My fear is what happened with the antiwar movement will happen with the police reform movement: it will be co-opted and almost nothing will change. And that's why the protests continue. I think many people understand that. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 20 20:28:57 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 13:28:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] diamonds falling In-Reply-To: References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> Message-ID: <5b069d72-6a1e-34a4-42fc-5bb361060a37@pobox.com> On 2020-9-09 20:43, Will Steinberg via extropy-chat wrote: > He is an unwilling pawn.? Easily manipulated. > Perfect for the job of dividing America I think you mean unwitting, but I'd question even that. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 20 20:32:55 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 13:32:55 -0700 Subject: [ExI] knowledge of a place and time and face, was: diamonds falling In-Reply-To: <012501d68f8a$65f40cc0$31dc2640$@rainier66.com> References: <8E1AF4FF-5B76-4D59-BBFC-98794E8F33D2@gmail.com> <2D6D1236-0AB4-4D13-9721-899C353573A4@gmail.com> <001701d68726$35dbc2b0$a1934810$@rainier66.com> <1729ef88-6832-1e65-f559-0a8e4d82aae1@pobox.co m> <002801d68770$7226f150$5674d3f0$@rainier66.com> <012501d68f8a$65f40cc0$31dc2640$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <9a276961-e91c-7eb4-4623-f781ef29b3c7@pobox.com> Anton: >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVmNm0dlmb0 >> Legend has it that this video's creator was hired to do a commercial >> for a department store; see if you can spot the moment when the client >> backed out. On 2020-9-20 13:12, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > I can imagine that bit at 1:23, the Washington monument smiting the > Jefferson memorial causing a shopping establishment to get a bit squirmy. Not 0:54, the green face and the Frankenstein monster? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 20:38:13 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:38:13 -0500 Subject: [ExI] rule Message-ID: Here's what you can get from authoritarian rule (from The Secret of Our Success) - data gathered 1971 in New Guinea: 1 - All villages must sing, dance, and play flutes for their pigs. This ritual causes the pigs to grow faster and bigger. At feasts,the pigs should be fed first from the oven. People second. 2 - Pigs should not be killed for breaking into another's garden. The owner must assist the owner of the garden in repairing the fence. 3 - sending pigs to other villages is taboo, except for the official festival feast. 4 - women should take better care of the pigs and feed them more food. To find extra time for this, women should spend less time gossiping. 5 - men must plant more sweet potatoes for the women to feed to the pigs and not depart for wage labor in distant towns until the pigs have grown to a certain size. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 20 21:15:20 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 17:15:20 -0400 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> I don?t see how fear and anger are opposite.* If you suddenly spot a dangerous threat Evolution gave you two options, get angry, run towards it and fight it, or become fearful, run in the opposite direction and hide from it. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 20 21:48:46 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:48:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <016f01d68f97$d1bf57e0$753e07a0$@rainier66.com> From: John Clark Subject: Re: [ExI] anger On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: >> I don?t see how fear and anger are opposite. >?If you suddenly spot a dangerous threat Evolution gave you two options, get angry, run towards it and fight it, or become fearful, run in the opposite direction and hide from it. John K Clark Of course, but with the same adrenaline rush either way. In the case of an adversary, one can have both anger and fear simultaneously, and usually we do. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 21 04:59:45 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2020 06:59:45 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Terasem: My interpretation Message-ID: Terasem: My interpretation I have been collaborating with Terasem for many years. Here is my personal interpretation of Terasem... https://turingchurch.net/terasem-my-interpretation-45f440781b3d From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 21 14:28:14 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2020 07:28:14 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Terasem: My interpretation In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <004b01d69023$714bb390$53e31ab0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] Terasem: My interpretation >...Terasem: My interpretation >...I have been collaborating with Terasem for many years. Here is my personal interpretation of Terasem... https://turingchurch.net/terasem-my-interpretation-45f440781b3d _______________________________________________ Thanks Giulio! I contacted the Terasem leaders about 15 yrs ago and exchanged friendly emails with them, but didn't join their club or follow up on it. I read a little of their literature, realized they are fellow travelers with ExI, and friends more than competitors. Thanks, may we consider you our point of contact on Terasem if we want to know more? spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 21 14:54:21 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2020 10:54:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] There is no speed limit in the superfluid universe Message-ID: Researchers report in Nature Communications that they found when Helium-3 is cooled to 0.0001K a wire moving through it feels no resistance even when the wire is moving very rapidly. Lead author Dr. Samuli Autti said: "*Superfluid helium-3 feels like a vacuum to a rod moving through it, although it is a relatively dense liquid. There is no resistance, none at all. I find this very intriguing.*" The article says this discovery could aid in "*studies of Majorana fermions aimed at producing components of, say, a quantum computer*". Majorana fermions would be far less susceptible to quantum decoherence than normal particles and thus allow the construction of Topological Quantum Computers which, because of their much lower error rate, could be scaled up to arbitrary size. dissipation due to bound fermions in the zero-temperature limit John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Tue Sep 22 07:21:20 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:21:20 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Terasem Colloquium, December 10, 2020 Message-ID: Terasem Colloquium, December 10, 2020 Call for papers on transpartisan approaches to the intersection of space expansion, emerging technologies, and human rights... https://turingchurch.net/terasem-colloquium-december-10-2020-f897aa54ddfa From mindpixel at protonmail.com Tue Sep 22 02:50:06 2020 From: mindpixel at protonmail.com (MP) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 02:50:06 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? Message-ID: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI especially. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Tue Sep 22 10:25:03 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 12:25:03 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: Sure thing! On 2020. Sep 22., Tue at 10:32, MP via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI > especially. > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From brent.allsop at gmail.com Tue Sep 22 13:59:10 2020 From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 07:59:10 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: Lots of us. On Tue, Sep 22, 2020, 4:26 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Sure thing! > > On 2020. Sep 22., Tue at 10:32, MP via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI >> especially. >> _______________________________________________ >> >> extropy-chat mailing list >> >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> >> _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 22 14:26:28 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 07:26:28 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: <019301d690ec$5c54a0e0$14fde2a0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of MP via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? >?Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI especially? Well MP, that might depend on your definition of ?out there.? I am more out there than most, if I go by what I am told. I could have an out there contest perhaps. Where ya been? Seems I recall your posting a long time ago. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Tue Sep 22 14:55:34 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 16:55:34 +0200 Subject: [ExI] There is no speed limit in the superfluid universe In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Press release from Lancaster University: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/why-there-is-no-speed-limit-in-the-superfluid-universe On 2020. Sep 21., Mon at 16:56, John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Researchers report in Nature Communications that they found when Helium-3 > is cooled to 0.0001K a wire moving through it feels no resistance even > when the wire is moving very rapidly. Lead author Dr. Samuli Autti said: "*Superfluid > helium-3 feels like a vacuum to a rod moving through it, although it is a > relatively dense liquid. There is no resistance, none at all. I find this > very intriguing.*" > > The article says this discovery could aid in "*studies of Majorana > fermions aimed at producing components of, say, a quantum computer*". > Majorana fermions would be far less susceptible to quantum decoherence > than normal particles and thus allow the construction of Topological > Quantum Computers which, because of their much lower error rate, could be > scaled up to arbitrary size. > > dissipation due to bound fermions in the zero-temperature limit > > > John K Clark > > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 22 16:04:31 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:04:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: <0cd9643b-5f10-bb2a-da53-8c8f7de00d9b@pobox.com> On 2020-9-21 19:50, MP via extropy-chat wrote: > Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Nobody here but us paramecia. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From atymes at gmail.com Tue Sep 22 16:45:20 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:45:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: There has been a lot of activity on ExI lately. You should be getting enough emails that you'd know it's active. On Tue, Sep 22, 2020 at 1:32 AM MP via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI > especially. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 03:42:25 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 11:42:25 +0800 Subject: [ExI] California Dreaming... Message-ID: Since so many posts on this list seem to revolve around California, I thought I would share this video about the state by the great J.P. Sears... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeCaYaG-ZRM -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 03:53:56 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 11:53:56 +0800 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: Present! On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 12:47 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > There has been a lot of activity on ExI lately. You should be getting > enough emails that you'd know it's active. > > On Tue, Sep 22, 2020 at 1:32 AM MP via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Just wanting to see if anyone still uses this list... Any members of EXI >> especially. >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 23 04:27:52 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 22 Sep 2020 21:27:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Anyone out there? In-Reply-To: References: <6M5VO9IknXoqwAdeJim0VUxtgcnRS27fchLzzDojzPJ-s_YEUWPgURqXOYTkTWrqjb3qQtok5J8Ly4UJ8on3Re6KLuZSVwPrILan58ChxsU=@protonmail.com> Message-ID: <00a901d69161$e77de0d0$b679a270$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Grigg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Anyone out there? >?Present! Johnny, I am out-therer than thou, me lad! Thanks for that video you posted earlier. That was a great laugh. He?s right on. I was in a Zoom meeting earlier this evening of the citizens bond oversight committee. We raised a ton of money to build local schools. Covid rearranged everything. We have about 14% of the students who engage only slightly or not at all (so they aren?t going to pass.) A proposal was made (and accepted by the school board) to revive our trades and crafts training program. So now we are going to offer the disengaged the opportunity to put away the books and go out on a job site, learn how to build something or do something with their lives. If they manage to show up consistently they get not a diploma but a certificate that says they showed up consistently. Having a trade school is a good idea. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 16:45:02 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 10:45:02 -0600 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Those are the two options evolution gave to all mammals, but the runaway positive feedback loop caused by intra-tribal politics that gave us enormous frontal cortexes gave us third and fourth options: Get angry, smile, be friendly for a little while, and stab the threat in the back when it's not looking. Get angry, walk away slowly, and apply a sniper rifle bullet to the threat's center of mass from a safe distance. On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:17 PM John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 20, 2020 at 3:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *> I don?t see how fear and anger are opposite.* > > > If you suddenly spot a dangerous threat Evolution gave you two options, > get angry, run towards it and fight it, or become fearful, run in the > opposite direction and hide from it. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 18:32:25 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 18:32:25 +0000 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 4:47 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat wrote: > Those are the two options evolution gave to all mammals, but the runaway positive feedback loop caused by intra-tribal politics that gave us enormous frontal cortexes gave us third and fourth options: > > Get angry, smile, be friendly for a little while, and stab the threat in the back when it's not looking. > > Get angry, walk away slowly, and apply a sniper rifle bullet to the threat's center of mass from a safe distance. Actually, if one can parse a retaliate later strategy from your third and fourth half-serious options, then there are plenty of animals besides humans and even other primates that hold grudges, no? Think of crows and tigers. I think it's simplistic to see all conflict between individuals aside from humans as resulting in flight or fight. Also, humans, like many social animals, seem to have evolved ways to reduce tensions and conflict. I think that's far more important than getting even, don't you? (In many cases, too, animals will fight each other over mistakes, so it's important to develop ways of correcting the mistake before or during a fight. A great example is dogs play-fighting. They learn to back down when they've gone too far -- at least the more socialized ones do. The ones that don't usually become quickly ostracized. This is little different than how humans will ostracize or have less dealings with the more violent members of their groups, no? Ditto for humans that go on violent revenge sprees. Outside of popular movies, this almost always results in the revenger being punished or ostracized by the wider community, no?) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 23 18:51:53 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 11:51:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan > Those are the two options evolution gave to all mammals, ... Those are the two options that rhyme and summarize a concept, but there are more options besides fight or flight. There is negotiate for peace (I like that option.) Extend the hand of friendship if feasible (I like that option too.) Agree to disagree (one of my long-time favorites.) Do nothing (the time-honored approach.) Some of the very most adrenaline-filled moments in my life had nothing to do with conflict, everything to do with performing on stage or copulating (not at the same event.) For men only, when you proposed to your bride what were you feeling inside? (Ok bad example (my adrenaline reaction was screaming RUN AWAY, lad, FLEEEE, it's a TRAP! (turned out to be the best trap in history in my case.))) spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 18:53:24 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 18:53:24 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Seattle's defund the police plan: Minor changes Message-ID: See: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/us/seattle-city-council-overrides-mayor-trnd/index.html This isn't anywhere close to what most protesters mean by defunding. You might say it's better than nothing, and it shows the council is willing to stand up to the mayor. You might say whatever people protest for, they're not ever likely to get anything more than a middle ground. But let's not kid ourselves saying this is full on defunding. (To be sure, there's a range of defunding levels and strategies, but I'm sure none of you here believe, say, a less than 2% cut in the budget the first year is defunding. I think after that it amounts to -- if they stick to the cuts and don't increase the budget on top of them -- less than a 5% cut. If you believe that's defunding, then you must think a 10% cut would be total abolition.) By the way, reading up more on defunding the police, I think it's a misnomer to call what happened in Camden, NJ defunding -- at least in terms of how defunding is used by most people. Defunding usually means slashing a good chunk of the police budget (which is why Seattle's defunding plan seems anemic by comparison with others) and reallocating those resources to other agencies -- usually social services and the like. What happened in Camden was actually _abolishing_ the police, then reconstituting it. That's a bit different and more radical. Now this isn't the same as what advocates of police abolition want either: they don't want abolition followed by reconstitution. By analogy, that would be like abolishing slavery and then coming up with a new system of slavery. In the end, you'd still have a slave system even if there have been some modifications. Those who call for police abolition really want no replacements -- just like those who called for abolishing slavery didn't merely want a new and improved slave system. (This is John's chance to ignore the whole post and respond as if I conflated police abolition with defunding.:) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 19:07:34 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 14:07:34 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: The way to handle anger: forgiveness. Forgive yourself for perhaps overreacting. Forgive whoever made you angry whatever the reason (why? grudges only hurt you) Acting out your anger only makes it worse. Freud was wrong. The Greeks too. This is the only way I have found to keep my temper when surrounded by idiots on the highway. Forgive and forget. Once I thought about keeping a gun in the car and that made me realize just what anger was doing to me. (Yes, part Scot). Act out your anger and what does it get you? For some it has produced feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish clans. Look at the Arabs and Jews. You can never really get even. ATand T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out and pull some of their cables down? We don't need anger. bill w On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 1:53 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of > Dan > TheBookMan > > > > Those are the two options evolution gave to all mammals, ... > > Those are the two options that rhyme and summarize a concept, but there are > more options besides fight or flight. There is negotiate for peace (I like > that option.) Extend the hand of friendship if feasible (I like that > option > too.) Agree to disagree (one of my long-time favorites.) Do nothing (the > time-honored approach.) > > Some of the very most adrenaline-filled moments in my life had nothing to > do > with conflict, everything to do with performing on stage or copulating (not > at the same event.) > > For men only, when you proposed to your bride what were you feeling inside? > (Ok bad example (my adrenaline reaction was screaming RUN AWAY, lad, > FLEEEE, > it's a TRAP! (turned out to be the best trap in history in my case.))) > > spike > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 23 19:22:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 12:22:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <014e01d691de$d7b970b0$872c5210$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] anger >?The way to handle anger: forgiveness? Definitely. Most stuff you can just blow off. Happy people are good at forgiveness. >?Forgive yourself? No way! I am such a bastard, I will get even with me if it?s the last thing I do. I have a saying: I?ll get me, my pretty, and my little self too! But until then I can cut me some slack I suppose. I just need to walk a mile in my own shoes. >?ATand T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out and pull some of their cables down? We don't need anger. bill w Agree. The local internet company went down this morning. It was horrifying: I had to read a book. An actual paper book. It wasn?t too bad until I realized it wasn?t just me: most of the town was out of luck because most of us have Comcast. The students couldn?t go to school. I have a mobile hotspot on my phone, so we went over there, which is how I am posting this. But our school?s Wifi is also thru Comcast, so many of the students are out of luck today. If a bad guy wants to burn down the US, she wouldn?t need to do it with firebombs. It would be done by somehow taking down the internet. We cannot operate without it. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 19:24:49 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 15:24:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Seattle's defund the police plan: Minor changes In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I'm sure some people want 100% defunding/abolition of police, I think they're a tiny minority. I think most people just want reform: end qualified immunity, end civil asset forfeiture, break up police unions that prevent firing/disciplining cops, demilitarize police, dramatically reduce the number of citizens killed and injured by police, etc. If Camden's ground-up rebuild works, that's great. Fiddling with budgets like that's going to fix things is silly. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 19:27:50 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 14:27:50 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <014e01d691de$d7b970b0$872c5210$@rainier66.com> References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> <014e01d691de$d7b970b0$872c5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I have wondered if WWIII would start by someone destroying certain satellites. Must be a nightmare for the Pentagon. bill w On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 2:24 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] anger > > > > >?The way to handle anger: forgiveness? > > > > Definitely. Most stuff you can just blow off. Happy people are good at > forgiveness. > > > > >?Forgive yourself? > > > > No way! I am such a bastard, I will get even with me if it?s the last > thing I do. I have a saying: I?ll get me, my pretty, and my little self > too! But until then I can cut me some slack I suppose. I just need to > walk a mile in my own shoes. > > > > >?ATand T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out and > pull some of their cables down? We don't need anger. bill w > > > > Agree. The local internet company went down this morning. It was > horrifying: I had to read a book. An actual paper book. It wasn?t too bad > until I realized it wasn?t just me: most of the town was out of luck > because most of us have Comcast. The students couldn?t go to school. > > > > I have a mobile hotspot on my phone, so we went over there, which is how I > am posting this. But our school?s Wifi is also thru Comcast, so many of > the students are out of luck today. > > > > If a bad guy wants to burn down the US, she wouldn?t need to do it with > firebombs. It would be done by somehow taking down the internet. We > cannot operate without it. > > > > spike > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 19:31:59 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 15:31:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 3:09 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The way to handle anger: forgiveness. Forgive yourself for perhaps > overreacting. Forgive whoever made you angry whatever the reason (why? > grudges only hurt you) Acting out your anger only makes it worse. Freud > was wrong. The Greeks too. > Somebody shoots your dog, rapes your daughter, or lynches your son and forgiveness is the only recourse? Act out your anger and what does it get you? > You can be angry without reacting recklessly. For some it has produced feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish > clans. Look at the Arabs and Jews. You can never really get even. ATand > T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out and pull some > of their cables down? > Maybe switch to a different phone provider? We don't need anger. > I disagree. Some things *should* make you angry, and that anger should motivate you to do something to redress the wrong or prevent it from happening again. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Wed Sep 23 19:37:10 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 12:37:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <965c14c9-a94c-a672-8fa6-0a6cf7cd2809@pobox.com> On 2020-9-23 12:07, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > The way to handle anger:? forgiveness.? Forgive yourself for perhaps > overreacting.? Forgive whoever made you angry whatever the reason (why? > grudges only hurt you)? Acting out your anger only makes it worse. Freud > was wrong.? The Greeks too. > > This is the only way I have found to keep my temper when surrounded by > idiots on the highway. Forgive and forget.? Once I thought about keeping > a gun in the car and that made me realize just what anger was doing to > me.? (Yes, part Scot). (With a name like William Wallace?!) A friend once told me that he became more even-tempered when he started carrying a gun, because he would reason with himself: if it's worth anger, it's worth pulling my gun -- and this shit ain't worth pulling my gun. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 19:54:39 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:54:39 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Seattle's defund the police plan: Minor changes In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 7:29 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > I'm sure some people want 100% defunding/abolition of police, I think they're a > tiny minority. I think most people just want reform: end qualified immunity, end > civil asset forfeiture, break up police unions that prevent firing/disciplining cops, > demilitarize police, dramatically reduce the number of citizens killed and injured > by police, etc. > > If Camden's ground-up rebuild works, that's great. Fiddling with budgets like that's going to fix things is silly. I'm not saying the abolition of police -- which I'd distinguish from defunding -- is anything but a minority and a tiny minority position at that. I believe most people don't know what they want and will settle for cosmetic reforms here. (I'm not saying I agree with most people -- just reporting what I believe here.) This is shown by the recent defeat of an attempt to end qualified immunity in Virginia. The Democratic controlled legislature backed away from ending it. Of course, from factions that don't want defunding and stand against reform, any change appears like the end of the world. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 20:51:16 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 15:51:16 -0500 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I think frustration works better than anger for motivation. Anger too often leads to irrational thoughts and actions. Certainly harming my family would make me angry, which might then lead to retaliation and even shooting someone. I have thought very seriously about killing a couple of doctors. That's why we have cops and courts. You CAN be angry without acting recklessly - it's just difficult for some people, me included. My wife dealt with ATand T. I knew what I would do: start screaming at the person in customer service. Twenty years ago a man appeared at my door - a next door neighbor whom I had not met. Very large person - angry. Told me that if my dogs did not stay out of my garden he would shoot them. Whereupon I told him that if he did that I would burn his house down. I was pretty steamed. He backed off immediately and left. (Thanks to him for not bending me into a pretzel). Ten minutes later a deputy sheriff showed up and we had a talk. I told him that I should not have said that; that I would never do that; that I would pay for his damage, and so on. Could I have handled that better in the first place? Of course. But see what anger did. It took a rather intelligent, rational person - me - and reduced him to petty threats. I vowed never to react that way again, though it might be a hard promise to keep if someone harms any of my family, including my pets. I have had to work on my temper all my life. Those whose angers are not as strong as mine might find them easier to control. I am quick on the trigger. Anger does have its good points. But the negative ones far outweigh the positives, for me. bill w On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 2:47 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 3:09 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> The way to handle anger: forgiveness. Forgive yourself for perhaps >> overreacting. Forgive whoever made you angry whatever the reason (why? >> grudges only hurt you) Acting out your anger only makes it worse. Freud >> was wrong. The Greeks too. >> > > Somebody shoots your dog, rapes your daughter, or lynches your son and > forgiveness is the only recourse? > > Act out your anger and what does it get you? >> > > You can be angry without reacting recklessly. > > For some it has produced feuds lasting hundreds of years between >> Scottish clans. Look at the Arabs and Jews. You can never really get >> even. ATand T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out >> and pull some of their cables down? >> > > Maybe switch to a different phone provider? > > We don't need anger. >> > > I disagree. Some things *should* make you angry, and that anger should > motivate you to do something to redress the wrong or prevent it from > happening again. > > -Dave > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 21:00:10 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 17:00:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> <014e01d691de$d7b970b0$872c5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: An EMP is a much bigger threat. If China (or another actor) miscalculated and released one, I would suspect it would lead to nuclear annihilation. https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1549/1 On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 3:35 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I have wondered if WWIII would start by someone destroying certain > satellites. Must be a nightmare for the Pentagon. bill w > > On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 2:24 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> >> >> *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf >> Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat >> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] anger >> >> >> >> >?The way to handle anger: forgiveness? >> >> >> >> Definitely. Most stuff you can just blow off. Happy people are good at >> forgiveness. >> >> >> >> >?Forgive yourself? >> >> >> >> No way! I am such a bastard, I will get even with me if it?s the last >> thing I do. I have a saying: I?ll get me, my pretty, and my little self >> too! But until then I can cut me some slack I suppose. I just need to >> walk a mile in my own shoes. >> >> >> >> >?ATand T has screwed me more than once. What should I do? Go out and >> pull some of their cables down? We don't need anger. bill w >> >> >> >> Agree. The local internet company went down this morning. It was >> horrifying: I had to read a book. An actual paper book. It wasn?t too bad >> until I realized it wasn?t just me: most of the town was out of luck >> because most of us have Comcast. The students couldn?t go to school. >> >> >> >> I have a mobile hotspot on my phone, so we went over there, which is how >> I am posting this. But our school?s Wifi is also thru Comcast, so many of >> the students are out of luck today. >> >> >> >> If a bad guy wants to burn down the US, she wouldn?t need to do it with >> firebombs. It would be done by somehow taking down the internet. We >> cannot operate without it. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 23 21:20:48 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 14:20:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> <014e01d691de$d7b970b0$872c5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <024d01d691ef$688116b0$39834410$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] anger >?An EMP is a much bigger threat. If China (or another actor) miscalculated and released one, I would suspect it would lead to nuclear annihilation. https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1549/1 Ja. Our local internet company accidentally opened a big ugly can of worms today. It was down at about 0430 this morning when I tried to get online. It was down most of the day, coming back up just a few minutes ago. Most of this town uses that service: it is the only one I know of which offers enough bandwidth to have three simultaneous different Zoom meetings without interference with each other. So? I set up my mobile hot spot which I have for internet while we are camping near a freeway. Some others have hot spots. Today the principal mass emailed that any absences would be excused. But people can?t get email. So kids were naturally going nuts trying to log on, not knowing that the internet was down for most of the town, including our school?s wifi. My son still had internet so off to school he went. One teacher (in a perhaps unadvisable move) went ahead and had class (after a fashion) for the half dozen who showed up, turned it into a help session. So the students with hot spots, such as those whose families are on the road vacationing, could get help while those diligent students without those could not even go to class. I expect fallout. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 21:55:39 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 16:55:39 -0500 Subject: [ExI] meformin Message-ID: I don't have diabetes. I barely have prediabetes, but this is why I wanted to get on the drug and did. A new research study, conducted over six years in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study in 1037 Australians (aged 70 to 90 years old at baseline), has revealed an additional effect: individuals with type 2 diabetes who used metformin experienced slower cognitive decline with lower dementia rates than those who did not use the medication. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 23 22:02:40 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2020 17:02:40 -0500 Subject: [ExI] covid updates Message-ID: Google Maps will update itself - doesn't say about PCs. bill w - Google on Wednesday announced a new feature in Google Maps that will show you how bad the Covid-19 outbreak is around the world. - This means you can open Google Maps to see how bad the outbreak is in your area, which might be particularly compelling given some predictions it could worsen in the fall and winter. - The feature is rolling out for iPhones and Android phones this week. That means you might not see it today, but you should in the coming days. Just keep looking for a Google Maps update. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Thu Sep 24 19:53:02 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 20:53:02 +0100 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 65 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <27a76b32-2ff3-9077-68ae-5aa9e950d94b@zaiboc.net> On 23/09/2020 20:28, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > Act out your anger and what does it get you?? For some it has produced > feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish clans.? Look at the > Arabs and Jews. Well, bill w. You learn something new every day. I never realised that the Arabs and Jews were Scottish clans. Thanks for this enlightening tidbit :-D :-D. -- Ben Zaiboc From foozler83 at gmail.com Thu Sep 24 20:23:07 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 15:23:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 65 In-Reply-To: <27a76b32-2ff3-9077-68ae-5aa9e950d94b@zaiboc.net> References: <27a76b32-2ff3-9077-68ae-5aa9e950d94b@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: So I get this message because of omitting the word 'and'? Anyway, I was not suggesting that feuds and such were more common between certain groups, but this is just a common, human behavior fueled by anger. bill w On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 2:55 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 23/09/2020 20:28, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > Act out your anger and what does it get you? For some it has produced > > feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish clans. Look at the > > Arabs and Jews. > > Well, bill w. You learn something new every day. I never realised that > the Arabs and Jews were Scottish clans. Thanks for this enlightening > tidbit :-D :-D. > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Thu Sep 24 23:39:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 16:39:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again Message-ID: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn't my area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of the other psych hipsters will comment: https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 00:24:09 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 00:24:09 +0000 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:41 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn?t my area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of the other psych hipsters will comment: > > https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 Are you certain you posted the correct link? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 00:29:19 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 19:29:19 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Since there was no test there, I cannot comment on the biases they are trying to test for. Sounds like a good idea. Any addition of critical thinking to schools is good. bill w On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 7:26 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:41 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn?t my > area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of > the other psych hipsters will comment: > > > > https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 > > Are you certain you posted the correct link? > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://author.to/DanUst > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 00:57:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 17:57:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:41 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn?t my area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of the other psych hipsters will comment: > > https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 >...Are you certain you posted the correct link? Regards, Dan Oops. I am certain I posted the incorrect link. Here's the right one, thanks Dan: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds Note on the other: I am trying to scrape up an AMC8 team at the local middle school, which is why that was in the memory buffer. spike From avant at sollegro.com Fri Sep 25 01:00:41 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 18:00:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 63 In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200924180041.Horde.iREar8mx3oMxvN3NElXSp29@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org: > One of my answers on Quora: > > I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could excise > it from the gene pool. It is irrational and often makes us do things we > regret later, if we are able to (we attack those stronger and pay the > price). Sure, it can make your fighting hormones flow, and that can be an > advantage in an attack, but just a bit overdone and it can be disaster. > > Among the worst is getting mad with children because they are not behaving > as you want them to, and so you hit them, often too hard. Or someone > weaker, usually, like a woman. Yes, I am aware that women can hit men and > abuse them. > > It?s just really good for nothing in the modern world. Anger, vengeance, and violence, even if detrimental to the individuals practicing them, are essential for our social and cultural evolution. Life is a lot like the classic "hawks versus doves" computer simulation that Dawkins wrote about at length. Basically if too few individuals are willing to take revenge on hawks even at personal cost, then the hawks over-run the system. Once the hawks come to predominate, then it becomes the doves that have the selective advantage since they are not prone to get into costly fights. Ideally there is a Nash equilibrium in society between hawks and doves. You are a dove, William, but hawks have their place in society, modern or not, also. Also on a more personal note, I once did some freelance computer work for a rich lady in Bel Air. She was a single mom raising a somewhat spoiled young boy. Her vanity caused her to get botox injections to stave off the lines and wrinkles on her brow. As a result, she could no longer control her bratty son because he would do bad things and even though she was furious with him, her face could not express her anger. Now imagine what her own kid or a full grown adult stranger might have done to her if she not only could not express her anger, but could not feel it in the first place. Anger is sometimes the only way to effectively communicate what one will tolerate and what one will not. Stuart LaForge Stuart LaForge From avant at sollegro.com Fri Sep 25 01:03:08 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2020 18:03:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger Message-ID: <20200924180308.Horde.qPnqptItPVSF-1u_SP6eiyI@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Sorry for the repost but I sent the last one before I changed the subject and stuff. Quoting Bill Wallace: > One of my answers on Quora: > > I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could excise > it from the gene pool. It is irrational and often makes us do things we > regret later, if we are able to (we attack those stronger and pay the > price). Sure, it can make your fighting hormones flow, and that can be an > advantage in an attack, but just a bit overdone and it can be disaster. > > Among the worst is getting mad with children because they are not behaving > as you want them to, and so you hit them, often too hard. Or someone > weaker, usually, like a woman. Yes, I am aware that women can hit men and > abuse them. > > It?s just really good for nothing in the modern world. Anger, vengeance, and violence, even if detrimental to the individuals practicing them, are essential for our social and cultural evolution. Life is a lot like the classic "hawks versus doves" computer simulation that Dawkins wrote about at length. Basically if too few individuals are willing to take revenge on hawks even at personal cost, then the hawks over-run the system. Once the hawks come to predominate, then it becomes the doves that have the selective advantage since they are not prone to get into costly fights. Ideally there is a Nash equilibrium in society between hawks and doves. You are a dove, William, but hawks have their place in society, modern or not, also. Also on a more personal note, I once did some freelance computer work for a rich lady in Bel Air. She was a single mom raising a somewhat spoiled young boy. Her vanity caused her to get botox injections to stave off the lines and wrinkles on her brow. As a result, she could no longer control her bratty son because he would do bad things and even though she was furious with him, her face could not express her anger. Now imagine what her own kid or a full grown adult stranger might have done to her if she not only could not express her anger, but could not feel it in the first place. Anger is sometimes the only way to effectively communicate what one will tolerate and what one will not. Stuart LaForge From danust2012 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 04:16:16 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 04:16:16 +0000 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:59 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:41 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn?t my area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of the other psych hipsters will comment: > > > > https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 > > >...Are you certain you posted the correct link? > > Oops. I am certain I posted the incorrect link. Here's the right one, thanks Dan: Glad to be of service! > https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds Thanks! I'll have to read it later, though a quick skim makes me feel it's covering old ground about cognitive biases. Also, reminded me of Tyler Cowen's recent piece on QAnon: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-19/what-does-qanon-stand-for-america-needs-a-better-answer > Note on the other: I am trying to scrape up an AMC8 team at the local middle school, which is why that was in the memory buffer. I figured as much. Hope it works out! Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From ben at zaiboc.net Fri Sep 25 07:35:57 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:35:57 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Feuds and Humour (was Re: extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 66) In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1f291bf3-3004-c76b-5fcd-1e9769cfe640@zaiboc.net> On 25/09/2020 02:03, Bill W wrote: > So I get this message because of omitting the word 'and'?? Anyway, I > was not suggesting that feuds and such were more common between > certain groups, but this is just a common, human behavior fueled by > anger.? ?bill w > > On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 2:55 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > On 23/09/2020 20:28, William Flynn Wallace wrote: > > Act out your anger and what does it get you?? For some it has > produced > > feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish clans. Look at the > > Arabs and Jews. > > Well, bill w. You learn something new every day. I never realised > that > the Arabs and Jews were Scottish clans. Thanks for this enlightening > tidbit :-D :-D. > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > Sorry, just my sense of humour. Don't get angry at me! :-) Also sorry (to everyone) for forgetting to use the proper subject line (now changed, because I'm not talking about anger here). Interesting idea, though, that you weren't suggesting. Is there any evidence that feuds etc. /are/ more common between (or within) certain groups? I suspect that there will be, even just for cultural reasons. I'd expect that the apparently universal conservative/liberal split would show a difference here, with the more conservative people being more likely to hold a grudge, and the more liberal folks more likely to forgive? Actually, another interesting thing is the differences in people's sense of humour. Some people laugh at themselves when they accidentally walk into a lamppost, some get annoyed instead. I'm one of the former. In fact, I'd say I'm someone who seeks out opportunities to see the funny side of things (hence the original comment about Arabs & Jews being scottish). No malice or criticism involved, just humour. It can cause misunderstandings, though. Which can themselves be funny. To some. But I know people who think that Monty Python isn't the least bit funny. To me, that's incomprehensible. So I wonder if humour is also correlated with particular groups of people, or perhaps genetic factors? (Don't believe the myth about Germans having no sense of humour, though. The joke "According to Freud, what comes between fear and sex? ... funf!" cracks them up (fier, funf, sechs is German for four, five six, for those ignorant of any German (no, I don't subscribe to the idea that explaining any joke always ruins it))). -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Fri Sep 25 08:00:03 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 09:00:03 +0100 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <2ef214fd-d82b-cbdc-6000-2ca8cd332bce@zaiboc.net> On 25/09/2020 02:03, Spike wrote: > Oops. I am certain I posted the incorrect link. Here's the right one, thanks Dan: > > https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds No surprises there. I also fits in with a book I'm currently reading (quite possibly on a recommendation from this list, I don't remember): "Why everyone (else) is a hypocrite" by Robert Kurzban. If someone here did recommend it, I'd like to thank them, and re-recommend it to everyone. It's about how our minds are made up of thousands of functional modules, specialised for all kinds of different things, and why they don't always agree, leading to the kind of results talked about in Spike's article, among other things, like scientists being religious, hypocrisy in general, and people putting locks on their refrigerator doors (does that /really/ happen? I don't know whether to believe it or not, but it illustrates the point well). I was thinking that this view of the human mind could well be useful to AI researchers, and that not taking it into account could even partly explain our dismal progress to date at creating AGI. I remember someone years and years ago talking about a mind being a 'loosely-bound bundle of parallel processes', which is not too far from this idea of modules doing their own thing, and not necessarily co-operating perfectly with each other (by design, or rather, evolution). -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 12:31:46 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:31:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: References: <008f01d68f80$74473d60$5cd5b820$@rainier66.com> <013201d691da$9d0cfb20$d726f160$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 23, 2020 at 4:54 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Anger too often leads to irrational thoughts and actions. > Sometimes certainly, but overall anger must have demonstrated some ability to get genes into the next generation or that emotion would never have evolved. Sometimes "fight" must be a better strategy for survival than "flight". > Certainly harming my family would make me angry, > I know for a fact things a lot less drastic than that can make you angry. You have shown every indication of being extremely angry at me on more than one occasion, and all it took was for me to type out a sequence of ASCII characters. > > I have had to work on my temper all my life. I can get angry at someone but I find it exhausting and can't keep it up for long, so the rage very soon fades into mild annoyance. Maybe I've just been lucky and overall most people have treated me pretty fairly because in my entire life there has only been one exception to my inability to stay furious at someone for long periods of time, and Donald Trump provided that exception. John K Clark > > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 14:32:32 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 09:32:32 -0500 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 8:51 AM Giulio Prisco wrote: > Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing. All others have > joined and have been upgraded to managers. Keith and Henry, we are > waiting for you! Join here: > https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "extropolis" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAKTCJyc3ebjPUJFm7Zes1ZTgNuZvssWM3aM%2BW3MOdpO9qHOk2w%40mail.gmail.com > . > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:00:45 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:00:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: What's this "extropolis" thing? On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 7:34 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of > the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right > to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w > > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 8:51 AM Giulio Prisco wrote: > >> Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing. All others have >> joined and have been upgraded to managers. Keith and Henry, we are >> waiting for you! Join here: >> https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "extropolis" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAKTCJyc3ebjPUJFm7Zes1ZTgNuZvssWM3aM%2BW3MOdpO9qHOk2w%40mail.gmail.com >> . >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:04:46 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:04:46 +0200 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 2020. Sep 25., Fri at 17:02, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > What's this "extropolis" thing? > A new list where discussions on politics and other controversial topics are allowed. Will be announced here soon. This OP was sent here by mistake. > > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 7:34 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of >> the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right >> to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w >> >> On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 8:51 AM Giulio Prisco wrote: >> >>> Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing. All others have >>> >>> >>> joined and have been upgraded to managers. Keith and Henry, we are >>> >>> >>> waiting for you! Join here: >>> >>> >>> https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> >>> >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "extropolis" group. >>> >>> >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to extropolis+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com. >>> >>> >>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/extropolis/CAKTCJyc3ebjPUJFm7Zes1ZTgNuZvssWM3aM%2BW3MOdpO9qHOk2w%40mail.gmail.com >>> . >>> >>> >>> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> >> >> extropy-chat mailing list >> >> >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> >> >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> >> >> > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 15:08:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:08:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 7:33 AM To: Giulio Prisco ; ExI chat list Cc: William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w In a sense, it was possible to do that before: anyone could reply-all, delete one name, send. I don?t know how else to do it really, which is why I didn?t push an alternative solution before: no one should need to carry the burden of omnipotence in a group where personal insults are allowed. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:11:00 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 10:11:00 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I don't see anything new in the link Spike sent about cognitive biases. Whether their application to evolutionary issues is valid I am not qualified to say. But 'first impressions are lasting' is very old hat. bill w On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:18 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:59 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > From: extropy-chat On Behalf > Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > > Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > > > On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 11:41 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > This is a good non-technical article on cognitive bias. It isn?t my > area of expertise, but it has the ring of truth. Perhaps BillW or one of > the other psych hipsters will comment: > > > > > > https://www.maa.org/math-competitions/amc-8 > > > > >...Are you certain you posted the correct link? > > > > Oops. I am certain I posted the incorrect link. Here's the right one, > thanks Dan: > > Glad to be of service! > > > > https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds > > Thanks! I'll have to read it later, though a quick skim makes me feel > it's covering old ground about cognitive biases. > > Also, reminded me of Tyler Cowen's recent piece on QAnon: > > > https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-19/what-does-qanon-stand-for-america-needs-a-better-answer > > > Note on the other: I am trying to scrape up an AMC8 team at the local > middle school, which is why that was in the memory buffer. > > I figured as much. Hope it works out! > > Regards, > > Dan > Sample my Kindle books via: > http://author.to/DanUst > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:16:51 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:16:51 +0200 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Spike you also posted to the wrong list! On 2020. Sep 25., Fri at 17:08, wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 7:33 AM > *To:* Giulio Prisco ; ExI chat list < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > *Cc:* William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera > still missing > > > > Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of > the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right > to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w > > > > > > > > In a sense, it was possible to do that before: anyone could reply-all, > delete one name, send. > > > > I don?t know how else to do it really, which is why I didn?t push an > alternative solution before: no one should need to carry the burden of > omnipotence in a group where personal insults are allowed. > > > > spike > > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 15:17:11 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:17:11 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <009701d6934e$f15db230$d4191690$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing >?What's this "extropolis" thing? Adrian It?s like ExI except where bad behavior is allowed: personal attacks, political campaigning, anything. I think of it as a place that exists (even if temporarily) to make ExI a kinder gentler more interesting place to hang out, it?s the rough country-western bar next to the nice restaurant and lounge. Adrian you could come by there, say hello, get in a bar fight or two, then come on back here. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 15:19:00 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:19:00 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <009c01d6934f$3255c6b0$97015410$@rainier66.com> >?Spike you also posted to the wrong list! Ooops. I sure did, my apologies sir, and ExI list. ExI-ers, do come by over there, even if just to visit. spike From: Giulio Prisco -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:29:21 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:29:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Just wait until we are all living together inside a giant hollowed out asteroid! How will we rule ourselves then? Lol On Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 11:18 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 7:33 AM > *To:* Giulio Prisco ; ExI chat list < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > *Cc:* William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera > still missing > > > > Please explain this 'manager' business to me. I can kick someone out of > the group without considering what others think? That doesn't seem right > to me. Does a manager have any duties? bill w > > > > > > > > In a sense, it was possible to do that before: anyone could reply-all, > delete one name, send. > > > > I don?t know how else to do it really, which is why I didn?t push an > alternative solution before: no one should need to carry the burden of > omnipotence in a group where personal insults are allowed. > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 15:41:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:41:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 8:11 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again >?I don't see anything new in the link Spike sent about cognitive biases. Whether their application to evolutionary issues is valid I am not qualified to say. But 'first impressions are lasting' is very old hat. bill w BillW, this take on cog bias is interesting because of two things that are really occupying my mind these days: the LIGO results rocking the cosmology world and the covid data. Regarding the covid data, we have plenty of indications that we still really don?t completely understand the mechanisms for the spread of this virus or even how to test for it with high accuracy. From what I understood, that Sturgis even should have been a health catastrophe, which is why I didn?t go and advised friends to stay back, live to ride another day. But the Sturgis event wasn?t a super-spreader. They had close-packed crowds, they had chants and singing (about how great Harley Davidsons are (sheesh (they really do stuff like that (is there any other product like that?)))) they had indoor activities, they have eeeeeverything I should woulda thought would cause a wave like we saw in April? but it didn?t. The epidemiologists don?t understand it either, and reacted with a roaring silence, filled by economists with some hokey algorithm based on? tweets. I see evidence the epidemiologists are unwilling to just take a stand and say we don?t understand everything about why outdoor covid spreading is apparently rare. The other thing: the LIGO results just don?t make sense to me. So now? I am digging out old notions I rejected a long time ago, such as? could the dark matter in the universe somehow be black holes formed in big bang, where most of them were collected into galaxies but a lot of them were formed right up front somehow, and oh I am a confused and bewildered geezer right now trying to make sense of that. I have some bigtime cognitive dissonance going on in my head. I don?t see the astronomy community galloping to my rescue on this. Perhaps in both cases, cognitive bias is preventing the experts from finding alternatives, and we need some alternatives. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 15:42:46 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 08:42:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera still missing In-Reply-To: <009701d6934e$f15db230$d4191690$@rainier66.com> References: <009701d6934e$f15db230$d4191690$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 8:17 AM wrote: > > > *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] [Extropolis] Only Keith Henson and Henry Rivera > still missing > > > >?What's this "extropolis" thing? Adrian > > > > It?s like ExI except where bad behavior is allowed: personal attacks, > political campaigning, anything. > Ah. That which I'd only heard of as "Exi-Politics". > Adrian you could come by there, say hello, get in a bar fight or two, then > come on back here. > I passed before, and my evaluation remains the same now. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 16:17:06 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:17:06 -0500 Subject: [ExI] extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 63 In-Reply-To: <20200924180041.Horde.iREar8mx3oMxvN3NElXSp29@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200924180041.Horde.iREar8mx3oMxvN3NElXSp29@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: You are a dove, William, but hawks have their place in society, modern or If by 'dove' you mean someone who wants to avoid physical conflict 'at all cost', then no - that's not me. In fact I am probably a hawk who is afraid of going too far if I get angry. (If they won't act right, I'll bomb them back into the Stone Age!) My children provoked me many times to anger and I had to fight it. I don't believe in hitting children, which is what anger usually leads a parent to do, or perhaps hitting them too hard or too long. One can be a very firm disciplinarian without the threat of violence. I believe in negative punishment (details available upon request). If getting angry with her son was the only alternative the rich Bel Air lady could have thought of, I feel sorry for her or someone whose parental techniques are so limited. I can think of a large number of things which could control a brat without a hint of anger. Even with a smile. Details upon request. Anger is sometimes the only way to effectively communicate what one will tolerate and what one will not. I believe that you could give me almost unlimited examples of how anger communicates 'that's enough' and I could give you alternatives not involving anger. (one personal one: my chairman told me that if I didn't start coming to faculty meetings he would break my tenure, all said with a straight face, no emotions. I did not believe that he could do that, but it was just easier for me to start going - taking a book with me). bill w On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 8:05 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > Quoting extropy-chat-request at lists.extropy.org: > > > One of my answers on Quora: > > > > I think that anger has no place in modern society and wish we could > excise > > it from the gene pool. It is irrational and often makes us do things we > > regret later, if we are able to (we attack those stronger and pay the > > price). Sure, it can make your fighting hormones flow, and that can be an > > advantage in an attack, but just a bit overdone and it can be disaster. > > > > Among the worst is getting mad with children because they are not > behaving > > as you want them to, and so you hit them, often too hard. Or someone > > weaker, usually, like a woman. Yes, I am aware that women can hit men and > > abuse them. > > > > It?s just really good for nothing in the modern world. > > > Anger, vengeance, and violence, even if detrimental to the individuals > practicing them, are essential for our social and cultural evolution. > Life is a lot like the classic "hawks versus doves" computer > simulation that Dawkins wrote about at length. Basically if too few > individuals are willing to take revenge on hawks even at personal > cost, then the hawks over-run the system. Once the hawks come to > predominate, then it becomes the doves that have the selective > advantage since they are not prone to get into costly fights. Ideally > there is a Nash equilibrium in society between hawks and doves. You > are a dove, William, but hawks have their place in society, modern or > not, also. > > Also on a more personal note, I once did some freelance computer work > for a rich lady in Bel Air. She was a single mom raising a somewhat > spoiled young boy. Her vanity caused her to get botox injections to > stave off the lines and wrinkles on her brow. As a result, she could > no longer control her bratty son because he would do bad things and > even though she was furious with him, her face could not express her > anger. Now imagine what her own kid or a full grown adult stranger > might have done to her if she not only could not express her anger, > but could not feel it in the first place. > > Anger is sometimes the only way to effectively communicate what one > will tolerate and what one will not. > > Stuart LaForge > > > > Stuart LaForge > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 16:27:07 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:27:07 -0500 Subject: [ExI] Feuds and Humour (was Re: extropy-chat Digest, Vol 204, Issue 66) In-Reply-To: <1f291bf3-3004-c76b-5fcd-1e9769cfe640@zaiboc.net> References: <1f291bf3-3004-c76b-5fcd-1e9769cfe640@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: Interesting idea, though, that you weren't suggesting. Is there any evidence that feuds etc. *are* more common between (or within) certain groups? I suspect that there will be, even just for cultural reasons. I'd expect that the apparently universal conservative/liberal split would show a difference here, with the more conservative people being more likely to hold a grudge, and the more liberal folks more likely to forgive? Ben Not the least bit angry. About feuds: that is a question for an anthropologist - I have no idea. As for conservatives/liberals, I tend to agree with you but have no data. One datum: me. I have held grudges for decades and still call myself a liberal. So maybe no difference? Monty Python often satirized religion and that would put many people off. Then there are those people. often below average, who don't understand satire - take things literally. I vacillate between frustration and humor when I make silly mistakes. I tend to laugh if I am repeating myself, like getting up, going into the kitchen for something, doing several things, going back to my chair and realizing that I did not accomplish my original purpose. Then doing that again!! Or even a third time. Now it's humorous. I can at least blame my age for my poor short term memory. bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 2:38 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 25/09/2020 02:03, Bill W wrote: > > So I get this message because of omitting the word 'and'? Anyway, I was > not suggesting that feuds and such were more common between certain groups, > but this is just a common, human behavior fueled by anger. bill w > > On Thu, Sep 24, 2020 at 2:55 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On 23/09/2020 20:28, William Flynn Wallace wrote: >> > Act out your anger and what does it get you? For some it has produced >> > feuds lasting hundreds of years between Scottish clans. Look at the >> > Arabs and Jews. >> >> Well, bill w. You learn something new every day. I never realised that >> the Arabs and Jews were Scottish clans. Thanks for this enlightening >> tidbit :-D :-D. >> >> -- >> Ben Zaiboc >> > > > Sorry, just my sense of humour. Don't get angry at me! :-) > > Also sorry (to everyone) for forgetting to use the proper subject line > (now changed, because I'm not talking about anger here). > > Interesting idea, though, that you weren't suggesting. Is there any > evidence that feuds etc. *are* more common between (or within) certain > groups? I suspect that there will be, even just for cultural reasons. I'd > expect that the apparently universal conservative/liberal split would show > a difference here, with the more conservative people being more likely to > hold a grudge, and the more liberal folks more likely to forgive? > > > Actually, another interesting thing is the differences in people's sense > of humour. Some people laugh at themselves when they accidentally walk into > a lamppost, some get annoyed instead. I'm one of the former. In fact, I'd > say I'm someone who seeks out opportunities to see the funny side of things > (hence the original comment about Arabs & Jews being scottish). No malice > or criticism involved, just humour. It can cause misunderstandings, though. > Which can themselves be funny. To some. > > But I know people who think that Monty Python isn't the least bit funny. > To me, that's incomprehensible. So I wonder if humour is also correlated > with particular groups of people, or perhaps genetic factors? (Don't > believe the myth about Germans having no sense of humour, though. The joke > "According to Freud, what comes between fear and sex? ... funf!" cracks > them up (fier, funf, sechs is German for four, five six, for those ignorant > of any German (no, I don't subscribe to the idea that explaining any joke > always ruins it))). > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 16:37:19 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:37:19 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Bill (as a Rogerian therapist). "Spike, what I hear you saying is that you are experiencing cognitive dissonance resulting from the uncertainties those two subjects bring about in your head." It is quite true that one's prior convictions can taint your theories of new data that don't fit the old theories. Many examples in history show that many people hung onto old theories and rejected new ones - germ theory, for one. I am not sure where to go with this from here. bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 10:57 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 8:11 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Cc:* William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > > > >?I don't see anything new in the link Spike sent about cognitive > biases. Whether their application to evolutionary issues is valid I am not > qualified to say. But 'first impressions are lasting' is very old hat. > bill w > > > > BillW, this take on cog bias is interesting because of two things that are > really occupying my mind these days: the LIGO results rocking the cosmology > world and the covid data. > > > > Regarding the covid data, we have plenty of indications that we still > really don?t completely understand the mechanisms for the spread of this > virus or even how to test for it with high accuracy. From what I > understood, that Sturgis even should have been a health catastrophe, which > is why I didn?t go and advised friends to stay back, live to ride another > day. But the Sturgis event wasn?t a super-spreader. They had close-packed > crowds, they had chants and singing (about how great Harley Davidsons are > (sheesh (they really do stuff like that (is there any other product like > that?)))) they had indoor activities, they have eeeeeverything I should > woulda thought would cause a wave like we saw in April? but it didn?t. The > epidemiologists don?t understand it either, and reacted with a roaring > silence, filled by economists with some hokey algorithm based on? tweets. > I see evidence the epidemiologists are unwilling to just take a stand and > say we don?t understand everything about why outdoor covid spreading is > apparently rare. > > > > The other thing: the LIGO results just don?t make sense to me. So now? I > am digging out old notions I rejected a long time ago, such as? could the > dark matter in the universe somehow be black holes formed in big bang, > where most of them were collected into galaxies but a lot of them were > formed right up front somehow, and oh I am a confused and bewildered geezer > right now trying to make sense of that. I have some bigtime cognitive > dissonance going on in my head. I don?t see the astronomy community > galloping to my rescue on this. > > > > Perhaps in both cases, cognitive bias is preventing the experts from > finding alternatives, and we need some alternatives. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 16:48:54 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 09:48:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 8:47 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Just wait until we are all living together inside a giant hollowed out > asteroid! How will we rule ourselves then? > I was thinking about this very topic just yesterday. Let's say we capture some decently large asteroid to GEO, with a high enough metal content that we can mine it and (relatively gently) toss chunks down to Earth to pay for the whole operation. Not all of the asteroid will be useful; the cast-off bits can be formed into habitats. If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them to be spun up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and imposed-by-human-biology) standard that people might not want to mess with it. 2 km wide suggests maybe 5 km long maximum, for structural stability. This gives an inner surface area (not counting the end caps) of roughly 31.4 square kilometers. At a maximum density of 20,000 people per square kilometer - roughly the upper end of the most densely crowded cities in the US today (there are a few more crowded in the world, but let's avoid the extremes) - that's about 628,000 people living in such a habitat at most. Obviously, we can construct more habitats as needed. If one were to create a bicameral legislative body to cover a union of such habitats and model it on the US, one might have a House-equivalent based solely on population, and a Senate-equivalent where each habitat gets one representative. This creates a representation problem in the US today - but, let's say, within tolerable limits (whatever one might say about recent politics, most people will agree it was at least somewhat functional before 2000, and the population ratios have not changed substantially since then). As of 2010, California had a population of 37,253,956 and Wyoming had a population of 563,626, roughly a 66:1 ratio between the highest and smallest population. If 66:1 is tolerable, and a given habitat will likely be able to support less than 660,000 people due to physical limits (unlike US states, where every single one could take more people today), then if the law says a habitat becomes a full equal member politically (as in, gets legislative representation) so long as it has at least 10,000 people (anything with less than 10,000 - whether it's not there yet, or it's losing people for whatever reason - is a territory/dependency of the rest of the collective, governed by federal laws set up to handle small habitats), the habitats are unlikely to grow too far out of balance. This means the "local" politics never get beyond moderate city sized. Try to ban political associations beyond a single habitat, unless they are collective-wide, to keep political aspirations (beyond the local) focused on serving everyone rather than just some large minority. Doubtless this will happen anyway - e.g., high-density older habitats vs. growing newer habitats vs. those habitats still being/about to be constructed (but there will likely always be enough demand for more habitats to win public money to build them - and it is quite possible to build enough land to support over a trillion people, plus several habitats just for parks and "wild" life) - but the scale can be limited. One drawback is that, by the time you get to 100,000,000 people, even the "upper"/per-habitat legislative body will have hundreds of members, and the "lower"/per-census legislative body will probably have thousands. There will be pressure to group up, maybe to create a Senate-of-Senate with a population no more than 100 where all the members can at least try to speak to each other on a one-on-one basis. But then, jockeying to be part of that body will strive to represent some large minority to the exclusion of the rest of the collective. There are ways to limit this - maybe start grouping habitats depending on how they are laid out (say, in a hexagonal tessellation, the core 6 habitats get 1 senator, and then figure some pattern such that every group of 5-6 habitats get 1 more senator based purely on location relative to the core, with no politically-motivatable district mapping) - but the ones I can readily identify seem like stopgap measures on the way to representing billions of people. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Fri Sep 25 17:55:11 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 13:55:11 -0400 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <753F2E0B-AEBD-4F91-A4DD-8981191DD996@alumni.virginia.edu> Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis. Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html > On Sep 25, 2020, at 12:37 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat wrote: > ? > Bill (as a Rogerian therapist). "Spike, what I hear you saying is that you are experiencing cognitive dissonance resulting from the uncertainties those two subjects bring about in your head." > > It is quite true that one's prior convictions can taint your theories of new data that don't fit the old theories. Many examples in history show that many people hung onto old theories and rejected new ones - germ theory, for one. > > I am not sure where to go with this from here. bill w > > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 10:57 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> >> >> >> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat >> Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 8:11 AM >> To: ExI chat list >> Cc: William Flynn Wallace >> Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again >> >> >> >> >?I don't see anything new in the link Spike sent about cognitive biases. Whether their application to evolutionary issues is valid I am not qualified to say. But 'first impressions are lasting' is very old hat. bill w >> >> >> >> BillW, this take on cog bias is interesting because of two things that are really occupying my mind these days: the LIGO results rocking the cosmology world and the covid data. >> >> >> >> Regarding the covid data, we have plenty of indications that we still really don?t completely understand the mechanisms for the spread of this virus or even how to test for it with high accuracy. From what I understood, that Sturgis even should have been a health catastrophe, which is why I didn?t go and advised friends to stay back, live to ride another day. But the Sturgis event wasn?t a super-spreader. They had close-packed crowds, they had chants and singing (about how great Harley Davidsons are (sheesh (they really do stuff like that (is there any other product like that?)))) they had indoor activities, they have eeeeeverything I should woulda thought would cause a wave like we saw in April? but it didn?t. The epidemiologists don?t understand it either, and reacted with a roaring silence, filled by economists with some hokey algorithm based on? tweets. I see evidence the epidemiologists are unwilling to just take a stand and say we don?t understand everything about why outdoor covid spreading is apparently rare. >> >> >> >> The other thing: the LIGO results just don?t make sense to me. So now? I am digging out old notions I rejected a long time ago, such as? could the dark matter in the universe somehow be black holes formed in big bang, where most of them were collected into galaxies but a lot of them were formed right up front somehow, and oh I am a confused and bewildered geezer right now trying to make sense of that. I have some bigtime cognitive dissonance going on in my head. I don?t see the astronomy community galloping to my rescue on this. >> >> >> >> Perhaps in both cases, cognitive bias is preventing the experts from finding alternatives, and we need some alternatives. >> >> >> >> spike >> >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: 66e4a892-b3bb-4438-8549-13e9337d1ad6.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59234 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 18:23:25 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:23:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <017b01d69368$f5e75a30$e1b60e90$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again >?Bill (as a Rogerian therapist). "Spike, what I hear you saying is that you are experiencing cognitive dissonance resulting from the uncertainties those two subjects bring about in your head.? I feel such inner turmoil Doctor. On the one hand, I see this data coming in, and it is hard to refute. This intermediate mass merger was something I was just raised to believe cannot not happen, yet there it is. I have looked at the algorithms they used, the Fourier analysis, the EM filtering etc, and it appears that this signal is real and something is very wrong with me. I am forced to conclude that I am lunatic-grade crazy. Then the other thing Doctor is even more disturbing. That one does agree with what I long suspected: covid doesn?t spread all that easily outdoors. From a mechanistic point of view, that one makes sense, however? the experts seem to collectively ignore what appears to be a huge important signal. So in the second case, I feel like I am sane and the others are bats-in-the-belfry crazy. >?I am not sure where to go with this from here. bill w In the meantime? the LIGO keeps hurling new anomalies at us and the bikers keep not dying. Doctor, do I need to check in at the asylum? Or am I safe to leave out on the street? Are there medications for LIGO/Sturgis Syndrome? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From sparge at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 18:37:14 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 14:37:14 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them to be spun > up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and imposed-by-human-biology) > standard that people might not want to mess with it. 2 km wide suggests > maybe 5 km long maximum, for structural stability. > What about rotational stability? Wouldn't want your habitats flipping when they're full of people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 18:48:24 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 11:48:24 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <753F2E0B-AEBD-4F91-A4DD-8981191DD996@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <753F2E0B-AEBD-4F91-A4DD-8981191DD996@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: <01a301d6936c$72fb6f40$58f24dc0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 10:55 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: Henry Rivera Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis. Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html Hi Henry, Thanks, I am watching all of these. The critical factor is that the new cases are being tracked by the doctors asking a simple question: did you go to Sturgis in August? We think there were somewhere between 260 and 290 people whose new infections attributable to that rally. However? if we choose any half million random USians, there should have been about 500 to 550 new cases over this period of time. By what I can tell, the catch rate at Sturgis is about half the expected rate. Why? That being said? the highlighted time also corresponds to others returning from vacations elsewhere, often from places where the infection rates are way the hell higher than average, as opposed to South Dakota where they are way lower. So part of the mystery might be solved that way: the half million bikers left average-infection-rate places and visited a low infection-rate place (South Dakota.) That part makes sense. The part that I don?t understand is why the local college near Sturgis, Black Hills State University, had such a high rate of infection they had to close it back down after one week of classes. That too is in South Dakota, right there close enough the collegiate harlots can make some money and get back for classes the same day. Notice the double surge in South Dakota. The first surge is thought to be from the South Dakota population being added half again with outsiders. But that doesn?t explain the second surge in the past two weeks. Regarding that recent surge in a lot of places, that seems like a long incubation period if we theorize the infections came from a rally that happens mostly in the first half of August. The widespread surges are seen in the middle of September. They are not widely attributed to the Sturgis rally. Is there a mutant strain which sits still and quiet for several weeks, then pounces on the biker once she is clothed and in her right mind back in the office? If so, is the lethality similar? A theory has been advanced that for some reason, the bikers were widely asymptomatic, caught it and brought it, and these datasets reflect secondary infections. OK, if so, that opens some new questions: Why were so many bikers asymptomatic? And if the bikers had stayed home and caught at home rather than in SD, how would we count it then? And are there any other examples of asymptomatic people catching while on summer vacation and bringing it to others? Where did the others vacation? And how does this Sturgis data compare to the beachgoers, which appear to be similar crowding only with a younger and perhaps more modestly dressed population? And where are the scholarly papers written by people who know what they are doing? Why were the epidemiologists so fearlessly predicting catastrophe back in July but have been so still and quiet since about mid August? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59234 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 18:53:38 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 13:53:38 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <017b01d69368$f5e75a30$e1b60e90$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> <017b01d69368$f5e75a30$e1b60e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Doctor, do I need to check in at the asylum? Or am I safe to leave out on the street? Are there medications for LIGO/Sturgis Syndrome? spike Prepare a very large pot of chicken broth, good for what ails you, ya know, and let it cool down some, then stick your head in it repeatedly until all dissonance is gone, approximately three years. Does anyone know if viruses are susceptible to sunlight? UV gets through clouds, as we know. Perhaps it kills enough of the virus so that if it is inhaled it's not strong enough to battle with the immune system. Just how much testing of the Sturgis people was done? If my idea is right, then we ought to find a lot of cases of infection but few people with symptoms. The LIGO case is too far out for me. bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 1:25 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > > > >?Bill (as a Rogerian therapist). "Spike, what I hear you saying is that > you are experiencing cognitive dissonance resulting from the uncertainties > those two subjects bring about in your head.? > > > > > > I feel such inner turmoil Doctor. On the one hand, I see this data coming > in, and it is hard to refute. This intermediate mass merger was something > I was just raised to believe cannot not happen, yet there it is. I have > looked at the algorithms they used, the Fourier analysis, the EM filtering > etc, and it appears that this signal is real and something is very wrong > with me. I am forced to conclude that I am lunatic-grade crazy. > > > > Then the other thing Doctor is even more disturbing. That one does agree > with what I long suspected: covid doesn?t spread all that easily outdoors. > From a mechanistic point of view, that one makes sense, however? the > experts seem to collectively ignore what appears to be a huge important > signal. So in the second case, I feel like I am sane and the others are > bats-in-the-belfry crazy. > > > > >?I am not sure where to go with this from here. bill w > > > > In the meantime? the LIGO keeps hurling new anomalies at us and the bikers > keep not dying. > > > > Doctor, do I need to check in at the asylum? Or am I safe to leave out on > the street? Are there medications for LIGO/Sturgis Syndrome? > > > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 19:16:20 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 12:16:20 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <753F2E0B-AEBD-4F91-A4DD-8981191DD996@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <753F2E0B-AEBD-4F91-A4DD-8981191DD996@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: <01c701d69370$5a5db840$0f1928c0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 10:55 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: Henry Rivera Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis. Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html Hi Henry, I started comparing the NYT data with the Worldometer data I have been using, wondering why they disagree. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/utah/ Then I discovered? what the NYT is plotting is apparently what Worldometer is calling ?Active cases.? That throws a new variable at us. When someone is diagnosed as positive, they might go into the hospital, they might go home and tough it out (as my cousin and her husband did) or they might die. If they die, they are taken off the active case list (I would presume) but if they go home and will not go back to the hospital (for fear of? what?) then it isn?t clear how they would be taken off the active case list. What the NYT should be graphing here is the new case data if we want to try to correlate this to a rally or event. It appears the NYT is presenting active case data, then perhaps drawing conclusions inappropriate to that dataset, for each state has its own rules regarding when to consider a patient no longer and active case. I don?t have access to the NYT so I couldn?t read their article. Are they suggesting this data is indicating the Sturgis rally caused new case surges? I am straining to believe an actual epidemiologist would make such a rookie error as using active case data when they should be using new-case data. I can easily see journalists walking into that blunder: if they studied journalism in college, they are apparently unqualified to take an actual major. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59234 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Fri Sep 25 19:35:25 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 12:35:25 -0700 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> <017b01d69368$f5e75a30$e1b60e90$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <000601d69373$0482c750$0d8855f0$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 11:54 AM To: ExI chat list Cc: William Flynn Wallace Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again Doctor, do I need to check in at the asylum? Or am I safe to leave out on the street? Are there medications for LIGO/Sturgis Syndrome? spike Prepare a very large pot of chicken broth, good for what ails you, ya know, and let it cool down some, then stick your head in it repeatedly until all dissonance is gone, approximately three years? Tried that, didn?t work. I did make quite a mess and looked silly, so I gave up that therapy. >?Does anyone know if viruses are susceptible to sunlight? UV gets through clouds, as we know. Perhaps it kills enough of the virus so that if it is inhaled it's not strong enough to battle with the immune system? I am reaching for all kinds of explanations like that: the virus was weakened by UV, inhaled, created a kind of partial vaccine-effect where proles? immune systems were alerted but the virus didn?t arrive full strength as it would in an indoor infection. >?Just how much testing of the Sturgis people was done? We don?t really know which is part of what makes this a crazy-difficult puzzle. >?If my idea is right, then we ought to find a lot of cases of infection but few people with symptoms. Ja, very plausible. The extra sunlight somehow temporarily boosted immune systems, causing them to catch but be asymptomatic. The LIGO case is too far out for me. bill w No way Jose! You are closer to the actual instrument than most of us here: three hour ride down Interstate 55 to Livingston Louisiana. I would go there just hoping to watch it vibrate, even knowing that I couldn?t see it vibrate. I would go there just to walk on sacred holy ground. This place is the scientists? version of the invisible guy in Hawaii: we built these big expensive things to look at some mysterious invisible waves from ancient times, we insist they are real and they compel us to do silly things like drive three hours to look at an enormous pipe. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 19:58:39 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 14:58:39 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <000601d69373$0482c750$0d8855f0$@rainier66.com> References: <002e01d692cb$e5feb660$b1fc2320$@rainier66.com> <005001d692d6$e5027b10$af077130$@rainier66.com> <00d101d69352$4e706b40$eb5141c0$@rainier66.com> <017b01d69368$f5e75a30$e1b60e90$@rainier66.com> <000601d69373$0482c750$0d8855f0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Perhaps the Sturgis bikers were unusual as a sample. Significantly fewer than average rates of infection in those bikers. What do you know about bikers in general? Any other samples of bikers available? And I'll bet those college students were mostly inside when they contracted the virus - lined up to get cards for classes - that sort of thing, if they still do that - not likely. The only thing that keeps me from believing that about the bikers is the huge sample. Not very likely that it is skewed in some way. Good luck. Just stay out of your wife's tranquilizers. bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 2:37 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 11:54 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Cc:* William Flynn Wallace > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > > > Doctor, do I need to check in at the asylum? Or am I safe to leave out on > the street? Are there medications for LIGO/Sturgis Syndrome? > > > > spike > > > > Prepare a very large pot of chicken broth, good for what ails you, ya > know, and let it cool down some, then stick your head in it repeatedly > until all dissonance is gone, approximately three years? > > Tried that, didn?t work. I did make quite a mess and looked silly, so I > gave up that therapy. > > >?Does anyone know if viruses are susceptible to sunlight? UV gets > through clouds, as we know. Perhaps it kills enough of the virus so that > if it is inhaled it's not strong enough to battle with the immune system? > > I am reaching for all kinds of explanations like that: the virus was > weakened by UV, inhaled, created a kind of partial vaccine-effect where > proles? immune systems were alerted but the virus didn?t arrive full > strength as it would in an indoor infection. > > >?Just how much testing of the Sturgis people was done? > > We don?t really know which is part of what makes this a crazy-difficult > puzzle. > > >?If my idea is right, then we ought to find a lot of cases of infection > but few people with symptoms. > > Ja, very plausible. The extra sunlight somehow temporarily boosted immune > systems, causing them to catch but be asymptomatic. > > The LIGO case is too far out for me. bill w > > No way Jose! You are closer to the actual instrument than most of us > here: three hour ride down Interstate 55 to Livingston Louisiana. I would > go there just hoping to watch it vibrate, even knowing that I couldn?t see > it vibrate. I would go there just to walk on sacred holy ground. This > place is the scientists? version of the invisible guy in Hawaii: we built > these big expensive things to look at some mysterious invisible waves from > ancient times, we insist they are real and they compel us to do silly > things like drive three hours to look at an enormous pipe. > > spike > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu Fri Sep 25 20:10:29 2020 From: hrivera at alumni.virginia.edu (Henry Rivera) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 16:10:29 -0400 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <01c701d69370$5a5db840$0f1928c0$@rainier66.com> References: <01c701d69370$5a5db840$0f1928c0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <5768C3C1-0083-41D3-AC10-A6A3906E23F1@alumni.virginia.edu> The NYT covid reporting is free although you probably need to sign up for a free account to access it. You may as well given your interest in this topic. > On Sep 25, 2020, at 3:16 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > ? > > > From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Henry Rivera via extropy-chat > Sent: Friday, September 25, 2020 10:55 AM > To: ExI chat list > Cc: Henry Rivera > Subject: Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis. Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html > > > > Hi Henry, > > I started comparing the NYT data with the Worldometer data I have been using, wondering why they disagree. > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/utah/ > > Then I discovered? what the NYT is plotting is apparently what Worldometer is calling ?Active cases.? > > That throws a new variable at us. When someone is diagnosed as positive, they might go into the hospital, they might go home and tough it out (as my cousin and her husband did) or they might die. If they die, they are taken off the active case list (I would presume) but if they go home and will not go back to the hospital (for fear of? what?) then it isn?t clear how they would be taken off the active case list. > > What the NYT should be graphing here is the new case data if we want to try to correlate this to a rally or event. It appears the NYT is presenting active case data, then perhaps drawing conclusions inappropriate to that dataset, for each state has its own rules regarding when to consider a patient no longer and active case. > > I don?t have access to the NYT so I couldn?t read their article. Are they suggesting this data is indicating the Sturgis rally caused new case surges? I am straining to believe an actual epidemiologist would make such a rookie error as using active case data when they should be using new-case data. I can easily see journalists walking into that blunder: if they studied journalism in college, they are apparently unqualified to take an actual major. > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Fri Sep 25 21:58:19 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 16:58:19 -0500 Subject: [ExI] cog bias again In-Reply-To: <5768C3C1-0083-41D3-AC10-A6A3906E23F1@alumni.virginia.edu> References: <01c701d69370$5a5db840$0f1928c0$@rainier66.com> <5768C3C1-0083-41D3-AC10-A6A3906E23F1@alumni.virginia.edu> Message-ID: Spike, if you want anything from the NYT,just ask me. I am a subscriber. It's very cheap if you don't want delivery of a paper. bill w On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 3:12 PM Henry Rivera via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The NYT covid reporting is free although you probably need to sign up for > a free account to access it. You may as well given your interest in this > topic. > > On Sep 25, 2020, at 3:16 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > ? > > > > > > *From:* extropy-chat *On Behalf > Of *Henry Rivera via extropy-chat > *Sent:* Friday, September 25, 2020 10:55 AM > *To:* ExI chat list > *Cc:* Henry Rivera > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] cog bias again > > > > Rates have gone up significantly in North and South Dakota since Sturgis. > Of course, they have also gone up other places too. From > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html > > > > > > > > Hi Henry, > > > > I started comparing the NYT data with the Worldometer data I have been > using, wondering why they disagree. > > > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/utah/ > > > > Then I discovered? what the NYT is plotting is apparently what Worldometer > is calling ?Active cases.? > > > > That throws a new variable at us. When someone is diagnosed as positive, > they might go into the hospital, they might go home and tough it out (as my > cousin and her husband did) or they might die. If they die, they are taken > off the active case list (I would presume) but if they go home and will not > go back to the hospital (for fear of? what?) then it isn?t clear how they > would be taken off the active case list. > > > > What the NYT should be graphing here is the new case data if we want to > try to correlate this to a rally or event. It appears the NYT is > presenting active case data, then perhaps drawing conclusions inappropriate > to that dataset, for each state has its own rules regarding when to > consider a patient no longer and active case. > > > > I don?t have access to the NYT so I couldn?t read their article. Are they > suggesting this data is indicating the Sturgis rally caused new case > surges? I am straining to believe an actual epidemiologist would make such > a rookie error as using active case data when they should be using new-case > data. I can easily see journalists walking into that blunder: if they > studied journalism in college, they are apparently unqualified to take an > actual major. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 26 00:40:27 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:40:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200925174027.Horde.L27TVrV_16fgNTumbarh6OT@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Quoting Bill Wallace: > If by 'dove' you mean someone who wants to avoid physical conflict 'at all > cost', then no - that's not me. In fact I am probably a hawk who is afraid > of going too far if I get angry. Come to think of it, in a previous email you did advocate removal of people's capacity for anger through genetic or other means. Assuming you meant other people's anger, that does kind of make you a hawk. (If they won't act right, I'll bomb them > back into the Stone Age!) My children provoked me many times to anger and > I had to fight it. I don't believe in hitting children, which is what > anger usually leads a parent to do, or perhaps hitting them too hard or too > long. One can be a very firm disciplinarian without the threat of > violence. I believe in negative punishment (details available upon > request). The Spartans submerged their newborns in wine to test their mettle. What did you teach your children to survive? If you never lifted your hand in anger against them did you at least teach them how to defend themselves against someone who might have been less conscientious? Is not depriving someone of his life not negative punishment? How about simply standing around while it is lost? Does it matter if you deprive a person of their life all at once or an hour at a time? Passive aggressiveness is simply exquisitely civilized violence. Why do you delude yourself onto some moral high ground about modern civilization? Do you believe the absolute number of humans alive at any one time is some measure of the common good? What about the quality of life of the billions? > I believe that you could give me almost unlimited examples of how anger > communicates 'that's enough' and I could give you alternatives not > involving anger. (one personal one: my chairman told me that if I didn't > start coming to faculty meetings he would break my tenure, all said with a > straight face, no emotions. There is quite a gap between feeling an emotion and losing control of your behavior. You seem to either underestimate your chairman's poker face or overestimate your own ability to discern motive from people's affectations. He might have said it in a flat inflectionless tone of voice but the REASON he said it was that he was pissed at you for not paying him his proper respect as your alpha male. If he truly lacked anger than he would have not given a shit. Politics in university psychology departments must be fascinating. > I did not believe that he could do that, but > it was just easier for me to start going - taking a book with me). The is nothing wrong with humoring him, but if he starts escalating his demands and pushes you too far, remember the ancient Klingon proverb that "revenge is a dish best served cold." ;-) Stuart LaForge From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 05:11:37 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 01:11:37 -0400 Subject: [ExI] IBM Plans to Have a 1,000-Qubit Quantum Computer by 2023 Message-ID: The goal is to have a one million Qubit computer by 2030. And so l suppose by 2040 they would have a *one billion* Qubit machine! At that point would we have the sort of vaunted quantum computer people dream of and drool over in the present day? https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/25/ibm-plans-to-have-a-1000-qubit-quantum-computer-by-2023/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 05:56:23 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 01:56:23 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Want to Decode the Human Brain? There's a New System for That, and It's Pretty Wild Message-ID: This is an amazing research development! Housed in a very portable backpack, the sensors in the device record ongoing activity in the brain, as a person navigates the real world, and goes about their day to day life. Neurologists are hailing this as a major step forward, in trying to understand the nature of the human brain. https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/22/want-to-decode-the-human-brain-theres-a-new-system-for-that-and-its-pretty-wild/ -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 06:28:48 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 02:28:48 -0400 Subject: [ExI] China's military power implications for American companies, investors Message-ID: How should the the West respond to the potential military and economic threat of China? They already have a larger navy than the United States, though America still has an edge with technology and real world military experience. But this will definitely erode over time. The senior leadership of China envision a military better than the U.S., by 2050. Xi wishes to see the retaking of Taiwan by force before he dies or retires. And so we may see an invasion by 2035. This will be a war with many new or at least cutting edge technologies, such as lasers mounted on warships, railguns, cyber-warfare, super hypersonic missiles to attack warships, and underwater, surface and aerial drones for surveillance and combat. This will be a true 21st century armed conflict. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/chin as-military-power-implications-for-american-companies-investors.html -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 07:15:38 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 15:15:38 +0800 Subject: [ExI] China's military power implications for American companies, investors In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: A working link... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/chinas-military-power-implications-for-american-companies-investors.html On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:28 PM John Grigg wrote: > How should the the West respond to the potential military and economic > threat of China? They already have a larger navy than the United States, > though America still has an edge with technology and real world military > experience. But this will definitely erode over time. > > The senior leadership of China envision a military better than the U.S., > by 2050. Xi wishes to see the retaking of Taiwan by force before he dies or > retires. And so we may see an invasion by 2035. > > This will be a war with many new or at least cutting edge technologies, > such as lasers mounted on warships, railguns, cyber-warfare, super > hypersonic missiles to attack warships, and underwater, surface and aerial > drones for surveillance and combat. This will be a true 21st century armed > conflict. > > https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/chin > as-military-power-implications-for-american-companies-investors.html > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 08:46:54 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 09:46:54 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 25/09/2020 18:55, Adrian Tymes wrote: > ?I was thinking about this very topic just yesterday. The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. The only scenario where that might be possible, I think, is where a small off-planet population grows thorough reproduction (even then, there are immense problems that might just be unsolvable), but I don't see how anyone can think that large populations of humans can be lifted off the planet. Just do the maths. How much energy does it take to put 100kg into orbit? How much mass would be needed to launch and support a single human? The amount of energy it takes doesn't change, no matter what technology you use, so how could millions of people ever get into space? I'm not talking about transmitting uploads, of course. That changes the picture completely. -- Ben Zaiboc From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 09:25:23 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 10:25:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> Ben Zaiboc wrote: On 25/09/2020 18:55, Adrian Tymes wrote: > ?I was thinking about this very topic just yesterday. The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. The only scenario where that might be possible, I think, is where a small off-planet population grows thorough reproduction (even then, there are immense problems that might just be unsolvable), but I don't see how anyone can think that large populations of humans can be lifted off the planet. Just do the maths. How much energy does it take to put 100kg into orbit? How much mass would be needed to launch and support a single human? The amount of energy it takes doesn't change, no matter what technology you use, so how could millions of people ever get into space? I'm not talking about transmitting uploads, of course. That changes the picture completely. OK, I just looked this up. Absolute theoretical minimum energy to put 100kg into LEO = about 3 Gigajoules (or around 0.8 MWh.). This is with perfectly efficient technology that can technomagically translate you from the ground to orbit (the figure is based on the difference between the kinetic energy you have on the ground and the kinetic energy you have in LEO). Say 100kg = one person, plus a tiny amount of gear. Bump the 0.8 MWh up to 1MWh, and say everyone can take a suitcase.? So, 20k people would take 20GWh, or roughly one ten-thousandth of an estimated global energy consumption of 200TWh. Now scale this up to millions of people. Launching a mere 20 million space cowboys (about 1/400th of the global population) would need a full tenth of the energy consumption of the entire world. With technology that's effectively magic. With real, near-term technology, maybe 50 times worse (guessing here). Draw your own conclusions (but check my maths first, I'm not exactly the most numerate person in the world). -- Ben Zaiboc From pharos at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 10:33:31 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 11:33:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, 26 Sep 2020 at 10:27, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > Ben Zaiboc wrote: > > The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost > (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans > into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet > population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. > > Say 100kg = one person, plus a tiny amount of gear. Bump the 0.8 MWh up > to 1MWh, and say everyone can take a suitcase. So, 20k people would > take 20GWh, or roughly one ten-thousandth of an estimated global energy > consumption of 200TWh. Now scale this up to millions of people. > Launching a mere 20 million space cowboys (about 1/400th of the global > population) would need a full tenth of the energy consumption of the > entire world. With technology that's effectively magic. With real, > near-term technology, maybe 50 times worse (guessing here). > > Draw your own conclusions (but check my maths first, I'm not exactly the > most numerate person in the world). > -- > Ben Zaiboc > _______________________________________________ I agree. Unless the cost of getting into space can be greatly reduced, space will be for the few pioneers who will have to increase their own population slowly. For millions of people, creating virtual worlds to live in will be much cheaper, more comfortable and much more attractive. You can't just reboot a real Mars colony when a disaster occurs. In future, will we live almost permanently in virtual worlds as our Earth environment becomes less attractive? BillK From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 13:04:57 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 09:04:57 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale Message-ID: Unless a last minute change is made the new US supreme court nominee will be Amy Coney Barrett, and she is just the sort of person you would expect, a religious crockpot. She is a member of an extreme right wing Catholic cult called "The People of Praise"; they speak in tongues, believe in biblical prophecy, and in divine healing. Members of the cult swear a lifetime oath of allegiance to one another and are assigned a ideology coach called a ?head? for men and a ?HANDMAID? for women to make sure nobody strays from the official dogma. The "heads" and "handmaids" issue orders on who to date, who to marry, where to live, whether to take a job, whether to buy a home, and how to raise children. Part of the ideology of People of Praise is that husbands should give orders to their wives and only men should have authority over the family. During her confirmation hearing in 2017 to be a federal judge Barrett said "*I take my faith seriously and I?m a faithful Catholic*". In 2013 she said: "*I tend to agree with those who say that a Justice?s duty is to the Constitution and that it is thus more legitimate for her to enforce her best understanding of the Constitution rather than a precedent she thinks clearly in conflict with it*"; and as a judge she approved a Indiana law banning abortions of a deformed fetus (although her opinion was later overturned by a higher court and the Indiana law ruled unconstitutional). So when she is approved Roe v. Wade Will be as dead as a doornail and we're back to the 1950's and coathanger abortions. Barrett also criticized Chief Justice Roberts for his opinion that saved Obama?s Affordable Care Act; so in the middle of a global pandemic the health care coverage of tens of millions of people will be as dead as a doornail too when she hears her first case on October 10. To those who claim Barrett's religious views will not effect her legal opinions I will remind you that in 2006 she said ?*If you can keep in mind that your fundamental purpose in life is not to be a lawyer, but to know, love and serve God, you truly will be a different kind of lawyer.*? Amy Coney Barret would also be the youngest justice on the bench, so she could be around for many decades. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 13:13:51 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 09:13:51 -0400 Subject: [ExI] IBM Plans to Have a 1,000-Qubit Quantum Computer by 2023 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: If what IBM says turns out to be true and they introduce a 1 million cubic Quantum Computer in 2030, and if they can at the same time reduce the error rate "*from one percent today to around 0.0001 percent*" then the world will be unrecognizable by 2031. John K Clark On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 1:14 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > The goal is to have a one million Qubit computer by 2030. And so l suppose > by 2040 they would have a *one billion* Qubit machine! At that point would > we have the sort of vaunted quantum computer people dream of and drool over > in the present day? > > > https://singularityhub.com/2020/09/25/ibm-plans-to-have-a-1000-qubit-quantum-computer-by-2023/ > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 13:34:27 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 06:34:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <008401d69409$c20b3820$4621a860$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale >? the new US supreme court nominee will be Amy Coney Barrett, and she is just the sort of person you would expect, a religious crockpot. She is a member of an extreme right wing Catholic cult called "The People of Praise"?John K Clark I bet against this on Monday and already I am being taken to the cleaners on it, damn. I bought the shares at 25, but it has been a steady drop since then. This morning they are at 16 with nothing but standing sell orders as far as the eye can see. I am getting killed on this one. Might lose soothsayer rank. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 13:46:07 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 06:46:07 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data Message-ID: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> OK well, we need data to solve a scientific puzzle. The Florida governor has lifted all quarantine restrictions yesterday (I heard, don't know the details.) There is nothing political about it as far as I can tell, so that shouldn't come into play here. We see the new case rate is steady for the past coupla months, so now we get to compare a restrictions states to a big no-restrictions state. Somebody had to do this eventually. Florida is the state. Here we go. Predictions anyone? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 28467 bytes Desc: not available URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 14:04:19 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 15:04:19 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> On 26/09/2020 14:05, BillK wrote: >> Ben Zaiboc wrote: >> >> The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost >> (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans >> into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet >> population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. > >> Say 100kg = one person, plus a tiny amount of gear. Bump the 0.8 MWh up >> to 1MWh, and say everyone can take a suitcase. So, 20k people would >> take 20GWh, or roughly one ten-thousandth of an estimated global energy >> consumption of 200TWh. Now scale this up to millions of people. >> Launching a mere 20 million space cowboys (about 1/400th of the global >> population) would need a full tenth of the energy consumption of the >> entire world. With technology that's effectively magic. With real, >> near-term technology, maybe 50 times worse (guessing here). >> >> Draw your own conclusions (but check my maths first, I'm not exactly the >> most numerate person in the world). >> -- >> Ben Zaiboc >> _______________________________________________ > I agree. Unless the cost of getting into space can be greatly reduced, > space will be for the few pioneers who will have to increase their own > population slowly. > > For millions of people, creating virtual worlds to live in will be > much cheaper, more comfortable and much more attractive. You can't > just reboot a real Mars colony when a disaster occurs. In future, will > we live almost permanently in virtual worlds as our Earth environment > becomes less attractive? Note I'm not talking about? monetary cost. That varies, but the energy cost (cost in energy, not monetary cost of energy) doesn't (the minimum energy cost, anyway). Unless we get to a state where superabundant energy is no problem, I don't see large numbers of humans (biological ones) ever getting into space. The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And that can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or if, for the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely available, people will still live largely in virtual environments, wherever they are physically located. And there's a humongous amount of living room available in the solar system, even more so when you only need a few cubic millimetres of space to live in. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 14:16:13 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 15:16:13 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the future. -- Ben Zaiboc From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 14:24:22 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 07:24:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com . >.Somebody had to do this eventually. Florida is the state. Here we go. >.Predictions anyone? spike Earlier I had commented about an upcoming motorcycle rally that might give us a dataset analogous to Sturgis, but now I am rethinking that notion. Biketoberfest is a smaller version of Sturgis, typically 100k rather than 500k who gather annually in South Dakota, but generally the same idea, similar crowd, lotsa skin showing (tragically weather-beaten decades past sell-by date skin (but hey, we're bikers, not the Spring Break crowd.)) Sturgis has nowhere near enough hotel space, so most of the proles sleep in tents at the local campgrounds. There is some of that at Daytona, on the beach as such, but in general, the hotels and timeshares are sufficient to house most of the throngs (Florida has swarms of mosquitoes that would discourage the most hardy outdoorsmen (ravenous bastards they are (the mosquitoes I mean.)) Another reason Biketoberfest isn't analogous to Sturgis: South Dakota has a population of less than a million, but half a million outsiders came in for a week in early August. Florida's population is over 21 million, and 100k are gathering in Daytona for a long weekend. Not the same thing. Everything in Florida is huge, not just our beloved roaches (hey some of us have taken the time to appreciate the ugly crawlers.) Crowds are enormous there. Biketoberfest is just another day in Daytona Beach. So. I am now thinking Biketoberfest will not necessarily provide the dataset I hoped for. However. from what I can tell, Florida public schools will be going back on campus next week. John Clark might offer insights from his home state? A running commentary from eyes on the ground there perhaps? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 28467 bytes Desc: not available URL: From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 26 14:26:09 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 07:26:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] China's military power implications for American companies, investors Message-ID: <20200926072609.Horde.eLSPj6cMJcs-Y_OAbFTf6ww@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Welcome back John. :-) Quoting John Grigg: > How should the the West respond to the potential military and economic > threat of China? They already have a larger navy than the United States, > though America still has an edge with technology and real world military > experience. But this will definitely erode over time. I don't know about the rest of "the West", but the United States should prepare to honor our treaties. They are by the Constitution, also the "law of the land". Apart from that, we should wait to see if threat becomes action. Larger is not better on the battlefield. It is just larger. Perhaps that is the true reason for the Forever Wars: so that the U.S. can always have seasoned veterans at its disposal. > The senior leadership of China envision a military better than the U.S., by > 2050. Xi wishes to see the retaking of Taiwan by force before he dies or > retires. And so we may see an invasion by 2035. Be careful with that John, "retaking" is pure propaganda on Xi's part. Taiwan is the last remnant of O.G. China. It is where Chiang Kai-shek and his family holed up after Mao Zedong took over the mainland. They are the last remnant of the former government of China. Some would add legitimate. > This will be a war with many new or at least cutting edge technologies, > such as lasers mounted on warships, railguns, cyber-warfare, super > hypersonic missiles to attack warships, and underwater, surface and aerial > drones for surveillance and combat. This will be a true 21st century armed > conflict. It will certainly make for interesting times as the old Chinese curse goes. Stuart LaForge From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 15:59:52 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 08:59:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com Sent: Saturday, September 26, 2020 7:24 AM To: 'ExI chat list' Cc: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: southern data From: spike at rainier66.com > . >.Somebody had to do this eventually. Florida is the state. Here we go. >.Predictions anyone? spike >.Earlier I had commented about an upcoming motorcycle rally that might give us a dataset analogous to Sturgis, but now I am rethinking that notion.spike It occurred to me after all this time to ask an obvious question of my European friends: you guys have motorcycles so there should be motorcycle rallies somewhere, ja? Where? And bikers in Europe would likely have a collective attitude, just as they do in the states? And if so, these European biker events would be potential covid super-spreaders, for bikers are not known for wearing masks are paying much attention to government demands. Giulio, how it is for bikers in Yugoslavia? I just went into Google Maps to take a look at street view just outside of Budapest. The Google car showed there are plenty of cars around but I never did see motorcycles anywhere? Don't you guys have biker groups there? Don't they have rallies and such? I will offer this: just going into Yugoslavia Street View was an education: wheeeeeere the heeeeellll is all the traffic? Most of the streets appear deserted. What's up, did you guys have the rapture but instead of taking the religion people it took away those with drivers licenses? Why bother having roads if they aren't all clogged up with cars? I soooo don't understand Europe. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 16:23:27 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:23:27 +0100 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, 26 Sep 2020 at 17:02, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > It occurred to me after all this time to ask an obvious question of my European friends: you guys have motorcycles so there should be motorcycle rallies somewhere, ja? Where? And bikers in Europe would likely have a collective attitude, just as they do in the states? And if so, these European biker events would be potential covid super-spreaders, for bikers are not known for wearing masks are paying much attention to government demands. > > Giulio, how it is for bikers in Yugoslavia? I just went into Google Maps to take a look at street view just outside of Budapest. The Google car showed there are plenty of cars around but I never did see motorcycles anywhere? Don?t you guys have biker groups there? Don?t they have rallies and such? > > I will offer this: just going into Yugoslavia Street View was an education: wheeeeeere the heeeeellll is all the traffic? Most of the streets appear deserted. What?s up, did you guys have the rapture but instead of taking the religion people it took away those with drivers licenses? Why bother having roads if they aren?t all clogged up with cars? I soooo don?t understand Europe. > > spike > _______________________________________________ Yugoslavia doesn't exist anymore. There were wars and stuff and it split up into separate countries. Traffic in European cities is a big problem. I wouldn't be surprised if Google cars didn't like being stuck in traffic jams with only camera views of lorries and buses. They probably prefer to drive around on Sunday mornings when you can actually get views of the streets. BillK From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 16:37:04 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:37:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being headquartered in America is advantageous. Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 10:18 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. > > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the > future. > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 16:38:04 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 09:38:04 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <000d01d69423$6881edc0$3985c940$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ >...Yugoslavia doesn't exist anymore. There were wars and stuff and it split up into separate countries. Traffic in European cities is a big problem. I wouldn't be surprised if Google cars didn't like being stuck in traffic jams with only camera views of lorries and buses. They probably prefer to drive around on Sunday mornings when you can actually get views of the streets...BillK _______________________________________________ Oy vey, so right you are BillK. Might try my Google street view experiment again, see if I can find some touring bikes or crotch rockets ripping up the roads somewhere near Budapest. Perhaps I should try Germany instead? I know Italy has bikes, ooooooh boy do they have bikes there, sexy bitches those things are, oh my. I don't know how the Italians do it: they build things that look fast just sitting there. Italy doesn't even build anything ugly. I think it is they have a tradition of doing cool art stuff. That bigshot, Michael somebody, Angelo? I think he was Italian. In any case... Italians make gorgeous bikes and cars, and I heard they painted up the ceiling in one of their churches really nice with angels and that kinda crap. spike From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 16:44:49 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:44:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: Spike, as our resident engineer, does Ben's math check out? : ) On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 5:27 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Ben Zaiboc wrote: > > On 25/09/2020 18:55, Adrian Tymes wrote: > > I was thinking about this very topic just yesterday. > > The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost > (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans > into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet > population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. The only > scenario where that might be possible, I think, is where a small > off-planet population grows thorough reproduction (even then, there are > immense problems that might just be unsolvable), but I don't see how > anyone can think that large populations of humans can be lifted off the > planet. Just do the maths. How much energy does it take to put 100kg > into orbit? How much mass would be needed to launch and support a single > human? The amount of energy it takes doesn't change, no matter what > technology you use, so how could millions of people ever get into space? > > I'm not talking about transmitting uploads, of course. That changes the > picture completely. > > > > OK, I just looked this up. Absolute theoretical minimum energy to put > 100kg into LEO = about 3 Gigajoules (or around 0.8 MWh.). This is with > perfectly efficient technology that can technomagically translate you > from the ground to orbit (the figure is based on the difference between > the kinetic energy you have on the ground and the kinetic energy you > have in LEO). > > Say 100kg = one person, plus a tiny amount of gear. Bump the 0.8 MWh up > to 1MWh, and say everyone can take a suitcase. So, 20k people would > take 20GWh, or roughly one ten-thousandth of an estimated global energy > consumption of 200TWh. Now scale this up to millions of people. > Launching a mere 20 million space cowboys (about 1/400th of the global > population) would need a full tenth of the energy consumption of the > entire world. With technology that's effectively magic. With real, > near-term technology, maybe 50 times worse (guessing here). > > Draw your own conclusions (but check my maths first, I'm not exactly the > most numerate person in the world). > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 16:47:59 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:47:59 -0400 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: New case counts are absolutely meaningless for a number of reasons. The only metrics to watch are ICU admissions and deaths. By those measures, there is no second wave including in Europe. I'd suggest reading this: https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/ On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 9:46 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > OK well, we need data to solve a scientific puzzle. The Florida governor > has lifted all quarantine restrictions yesterday (I heard, don?t know the > details.) > > > > There is nothing political about it as far as I can tell, so that > shouldn?t come into play here. > > > > We see the new case rate is steady for the past coupla months, so now we > get to compare a restrictions states to a big no-restrictions state. > > > > Somebody had to do this eventually. Florida is the state. Here we go. > > > > Predictions anyone? > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:01:27 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:01:27 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:17 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. > > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the future. What nations would be on your shortlist? Switzerland? Sweden? New Zealand? Though not practical at the moment, I'd like to see cryonic storage moved off world. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:05:24 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 13:05:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Will NASA get the funds they need for the upcoming Moon mission? Message-ID: Last l heard, China is planning to put a permanent base on the Moon by around 2030. And so of course America is gearing up to compete, despite our problems. https://futurism.com/the-byte/nasa-unveils-flabbergasting-moon-budget -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:06:46 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:06:46 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 1:07 PM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > Unless a last minute change is made the new US supreme court nominee will be Amy Coney Barrett, and she is just the sort of person you would expect, a religious crockpot. She is a member of an extreme right wing Catholic cult called "The People of Praise"; they speak in tongues, believe in biblical prophecy, and in divine healing. Members of the cult swear a lifetime oath of allegiance to one another and are assigned a ideology coach called a ?head? for men and a ?HANDMAID? for women to make sure nobody strays from the official dogma. The "heads" and "handmaids" issue orders on who to date, who to marry, where to live, whether to take a job, whether to buy a home, and how to raise children. Part of the ideology of People of Praise is that husbands should give orders to their wives and only men should have authority over the family. > > During her confirmation hearing in 2017 to be a federal judge Barrett said "I take my faith seriously and I?m a faithful Catholic". In 2013 she said: "I tend to agree with those who say that a Justice?s duty is to the Constitution and that it is thus more legitimate for her to enforce her best understanding of the Constitution rather than a precedent she thinks clearly in conflict with it"; and as a judge she approved a Indiana law banning abortions of a deformed fetus (although her opinion was later overturned by a higher court and the Indiana law ruled unconstitutional). So when she is approved Roe v. Wade Will be as dead as a doornail and we're back to the 1950's and coathanger abortions. Barrett also criticized Chief Justice Roberts for his opinion that saved Obama?s Affordable Care Act; so in the middle of a global pandemic the health care coverage of tens of millions of people will be as dead as a doornail too when she hears her first case on October 10. > > To those who claim Barrett's religious views will not effect her legal opinions I will remind you that in 2006 she said ?If you can keep in mind that your fundamental purpose in life is not to be a lawyer, but to know, love and serve God, you truly will be a different kind of lawyer.? Amy Coney Barret would also be the youngest justice on the bench, so she could be around for many decades. I'm guessing court-packing will be the way the Democrats can deal with this problem. Once that happens, though, then I think it'll be hard to stop each party from using it. The limit will be the need to control both houses of the Congress to carry it out. (Court-packing would probably have the effect of neutralizing the Supreme Court -- I mean neutralizing its supposed role of balancing against the other branches of the government.) But aside from getting angry or afraid, what is to be done? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:14:32 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 13:14:32 -0400 Subject: [ExI] YouTube moderator sues company due to psychological trauma Message-ID: Due to the failings of AI to capably moderate content, humans have continued to be used. But the big tech companies have not looked after them, when they needed professional counseling due to what they witnessed. https://futurism.com/the-byte/youtube-content-moderator-sues-psychological-trauma -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:16:09 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:16:09 +0000 Subject: [ExI] anger In-Reply-To: <20200925174027.Horde.L27TVrV_16fgNTumbarh6OT@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200925174027.Horde.L27TVrV_16fgNTumbarh6OT@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:42 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > The Spartans submerged their newborns in wine to test their mettle. My understanding is they _bathed_ them in wine -- not attempted to drown them in it. The idea was that a weak child wouldn't be able to stand up to being bathed in the stuff. It sounds to me that if that's the test, it's unlikely many a child would've been harmed by this depending on its duration and whether it was a one time thing like an infant baptism. (This is, of course, accepting they actually did this. Beware that there are many claims about Sparta that are hard to verify. And Laconophiles tend to buy into every legend about Sparta that makes the Spartans seem close to perfect in the Laconophile's view.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:37:19 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:37:19 +0000 Subject: [ExI] China's military power implications for American companies, investors In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 6:30 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > How should the the West respond to the potential military and economic threat of China? They already have a larger navy than the United States, though America still has an edge with technology and real world military experience. But this will definitely erode over time. > > The senior leadership of China envision a military better than the U.S., by 2050. Xi wishes to see the retaking of Taiwan by force before he dies or retires. And so we may see an invasion by 2035. > > This will be a war with many new or at least cutting edge technologies, such as lasers mounted on warships, railguns, cyber-warfare, super hypersonic missiles to attack warships, and underwater, surface and aerial drones for surveillance and combat. This will be a true 21st century armed conflict. > > https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/chin > as-military-power-implications-for-american-companies-investors.html One has to be careful with evaluating armed forces merely by size or technology. In China's case, having a large fleet doesn't seem to mean much. It's fairly easy to churn out (or otherwise) materiel and forces and yet still not be a significant military threat. Much depends on the ability to use those forces and that relies on them being trained and having combat experience -- especially training and experience against likely rivals. In which case, I don't think China's military really has anything like Western-style navy at this point. I used to debate this issue with New Zealanders who feared a Chinese amphibious invasion. The problem there would be twofold: ability to project power across an ocean and the ability to carry out an amphibious assault/invasion once was able to master the sea around the target. Both require lots of experience -- not simply pouring in technology and ships, the equivalent of sending ever more troops against the trenches in WW1. It wouldn't be easy to obtain those capabilities. It'd probably take decades in fact. (Think of why Germany almost bungled Crete and didn't even manage to implement Operation Sea Lion. And also think of how the Allies managed to pull off Overlord only after years of prep. Even Operation Torch took years of prep and that was relatively easy.) Of course, arms manufacturers have a field deal stoking fears of any foreign menace because they're looking for new contracts. But let's think more critically about how these fears are almost certainly overstated. And the best response to China is more trade, in my opinion. This is the old liberal saw that if goods don't cross borders, armies will. So let goods flow freely. Nations that trade with each other tend to become economically interdependent and so less likely to go to war with each other. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:54:48 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 13:54:48 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 1:16 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: *> But aside from getting angry or afraid, what is to be done?* Well for starters, a person could vote for someone who has at least a chance, however slight, of actually stopping a narcissistic dictator in training and not wasting it on a silly worthless gesture, also known as a vote for a third-party candidate who doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning even a single electoral vote. John K Clark > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 17:57:00 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 19:57:00 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Will NASA get the funds they need for the upcoming Moon mission? In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 2020. Sep 26., Sat at 19:09, John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Last l heard, China is planning to put a permanent base on the Moon by > around 2030. And so of course America is gearing up to compete, despite our > problems. > As things seems to be developing, NASA is unlikely to get the funds. But if something can change this, it is a credible and immediate threat from China. So, here?s to China! > https://futurism.com/the-byte/nasa-unveils-flabbergasting-moon-budget > > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 18:00:27 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 11:00:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of John Grigg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance >?Spike, as our resident engineer, does Ben's math check out? : ) Ja, sure does. John we knew back in the early 90s that any notion of people living long term in space was really dependent on Single Stage To Orbit, or failing that? all recoverable everything. We knew you don?t build a 737 in Seattle, fly it to Orlando, unload the passengers, then hurl it into the sea. No part of that aircraft is thrown out. Space hardware is inherently expensive, that isn?t going to change. Until we get some way to get stuff to orbit cheaply, none of the space-hab notions are practical. All supplies need to be hauled up there for a long time. We can?t do that at $10K per kilo, which is one man-day of food. Can?t do that now, can?t do it later. To answer your question: space habs aren?t there yet. There are technologies missing, such as how to make food from sunlight a looooot more efficiently than putting it thru vegetables. It pains me to be the wet blanket on the notion, but I used to it. I ended up in the same position with the early 90s engineering teams working on SSTO: I calculated that anything you can do with one stage can be done better with two. Turns out that was true then and still is now. We aren?t there on space habs. spike ?Draw your own conclusions (but check my maths first, I'm not exactly the most numerate person in the world). -- Ben Zaiboc _______________________________________________ extropy-chat mailing list extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 18:20:27 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 11:20:27 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007701d69431$b6142450$223c6cf0$@rainier66.com> On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 9:46 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: >>?Somebody had to do this eventually. Florida is the state. Here we go?spike > On Behalf Of Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] southern data >?New case counts are absolutely meaningless for a number of reasons. The only metrics to watch are ICU admissions and deaths. >?By those measures, there is no second wave including in Europe. >?I'd suggest reading this: https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/ Thank? you? very much Dylan. This is what we need here, and plenty of it from Jolly Olde: those lads managed to not politicize the hell outta this tragedy. We should import some Made in England epidemiologists on an emergency basis. We have articles written by economists, journalists, politicians, none of which are worth the electrons used to make them (many of which may have been harmful.) We need some fellers who know from epidemiology and who don?t care who wins the upcoming US elections, don?t even know or care who is running, they don?t have a dog in that fight. I have half a mind to post to BillK offering a deal: he calls his buddies in parliament, arranges to send us some epidemiologists, we arrange to send him some economists, journalists and politicians, have each study the other country?s covid numbers. We will give you guys ten yanks for each limey. You can keep them as souvenirs, but we will return your limey afterwards. Such a deal! I am watching for my own confirmation bias, because I concluded a long time ago that it is mortality data that counts, not new case data, and I did notice the mortality rates in Britain are not surging like the new case rates, which are dependent on test rates and testing reliability, both of which vary all over the map in the states. Dylan this looks like a great article, very informed, thanks. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 18:25:23 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 18:25:23 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 5:55 PM John Clark wrote: > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 1:16 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> But aside from getting angry or afraid, what is to be done? > > Well for starters, a person could vote for someone who has at least a chance, > however slight, of actually stopping a narcissistic dictator in training But they're not going to wait until after the election to appoint her to the court. And once she's there, she's not likely to resign simply because the presidency (or the Senate) changed hands, no? So what's to be done about her getting appointed? Or getting her removed? Or nullifying her power? This is why I brought up court-packing. Why did you ignore that? > and not > wasting it on a silly worthless gesture, also known as a vote for a third-party > candidate who doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning even a > single electoral vote. Well, it depends on what state a person is voting in. In a state where your vote is unlikely to have an impact, then it almost certainly doens't matter. If you're in a competitive state, that's another matter. (I've gone over this before.) Also, have you seen that Maine is trying out ranked voting? See: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-referendums-elections-maine-courts-b5ddd0854037e9687e952cd79e1526df In which case, one can vote third party and still rank other choices above the person one doesn't want to see win. For instance, someone might vote for the LP candidate first with the Democratic Party candidate ranked second. That wouldn't result in the outcome you fear, no? (To be sure -- and to co-opt you from making an idiotic comment here -- I'm aware this is just in Maine. I know Nebraska splits their electoral votes, but isn't doing ranked voting. Everywhere else, it's winner takes all.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From avant at sollegro.com Sat Sep 26 18:26:39 2020 From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 11:26:39 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <20200926112639.Horde._5-Z-zM-dpvAN-RQuRFHYYC@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Ben Zaiboc wrote: >>> The thing that immediately occurs to me is how much it would cost >>> (energy, not necessarily money) to put even just 20k biological humans >>> into space in the first place. I don't see a sizeable off-planet >>> population of humans-as-they-are-now ever being plausible. >> >>> Say 100kg = one person, plus a tiny amount of gear. Bump the 0.8 MWh up >>> to 1MWh, and say everyone can take a suitcase. So, 20k people would >>> take 20GWh, or roughly one ten-thousandth of an estimated global energy >>> consumption of 200TWh. Now scale this up to millions of people. >>> Launching a mere 20 million space cowboys (about 1/400th of the global >>> population) would need a full tenth of the energy consumption of the >>> entire world. With technology that's effectively magic. With real, >>> near-term technology, maybe 50 times worse (guessing here). In theory a maximum of 200TWh could be extracted from a mere 8.01 kg of matter if 100% efficiency could be achieved in energy harvesting. We need to quit making excuses for extinction and invest in research in nuclear rocketry. >> >> For millions of people, creating virtual worlds to live in will be >> much cheaper, more comfortable and much more attractive. You can't >> just reboot a real Mars colony when a disaster occurs. In future, will >> we live almost permanently in virtual worlds as our Earth environment >> becomes less attractive? The point is neither Earth nor Mars could reboot themselves on their own, but if both existed, either one could reboot the other. A Mars colony really is like a backup for the human species on Earth. > Note I'm not talking about? monetary cost. That varies, but the energy > cost (cost in energy, not monetary cost of energy) doesn't (the minimum > energy cost, anyway). Unless we get to a state where superabundant > energy is no problem, I don't see large numbers of humans (biological > ones) ever getting into space. Maybe not baseline biological humans, but I can envision specific adaptation brought about by genetically engineering and possibly selectively breeding some humans to be especially adapted to space. > The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And that > can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or if, for > the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely available, people > will still live largely in virtual environments, wherever they are > physically located. And there's a humongous amount of living room > available in the solar system, even more so when you only need a few > cubic millimetres of space to live in. That is a distinct possibility at least for significant proportion of the population. But my hope is that humans will expand rather than condense. It just seems more extropic. Stuart LaForge From danust2012 at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 18:37:48 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 18:37:48 +0000 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 4:25 PM BillK via extropy-chat wrote: > On Sat, 26 Sep 2020 at 17:02, spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > It occurred to me after all this time to ask an obvious question of my European friends: you guys have motorcycles so there should be motorcycle rallies somewhere, ja? Where? And bikers in Europe would likely have a collective attitude, just as they do in the states? And if so, these European biker events would be potential covid super-spreaders, for bikers are not known for wearing masks are paying much attention to government demands. > > > > Giulio, how it is for bikers in Yugoslavia? I just went into Google Maps to take a look at street view just outside of Budapest. The Google car showed there are plenty of cars around but I never did see motorcycles anywhere? Don?t you guys have biker groups there? Don?t they have rallies and such? > > > > I will offer this: just going into Yugoslavia Street View was an education: wheeeeeere the heeeeellll is all the traffic? Most of the streets appear deserted. What?s up, did you guys have the rapture but instead of taking the religion people it took away those with drivers licenses? Why bother having roads if they aren?t all clogged up with cars? I soooo don?t understand Europe. > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > > > Yugoslavia doesn't exist anymore. There were wars and stuff and it > split up into separate countries. > Traffic in European cities is a big problem. I wouldn't be surprised > if Google cars didn't like being stuck in traffic jams with only > camera views of lorries and buses. They probably prefer to drive > around on Sunday mornings when you can actually get views of the > streets. This is kind of funny because I use street view to see what a location looks like (the permanent structures) and help with travel, but I never expect it to give me a good idea of how many pedestrians and vehicles are around. I presume the Google car goes through when it goes through and that's that. I've even seen street views here (Seattle) that are way out of date. Buildings are gone or new buildings are up or road construction has been completed, etc. So I don't expect it to give me reliable data -- just an overall feel... Things like, 'That's where the espresso bar is I'm supposed to meet them at.' so that I don't have to wander around looking for something. (I also use it for hiking locations. There it's even sketchier because the updates are even less frequent and don't usually cover forest roads. It'd be really helpful, but very costly, to have updates of forest roads -- to see whether they're washed out or have other obstacles and potholes.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 18:59:38 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 11:59:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> References: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 7:05 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Note I'm not talking about monetary cost. That varies, but the energy > cost (cost in energy, not monetary cost of energy) doesn't (the minimum > energy cost, anyway). > And the energy cost is almost irrelevant, save that it informs the monetary cost. It's the monetary cost that will gateway getting people into space. It is a given that the cost of launching things into space will have to come down a lot before many people move into space. This is being worked on, and seems likely to happen to a sufficient degree within a few decades. (Disclaimer: I'm one of the people working on it.) There is a technological element necessary to this end (higher energy fuels, that enable fully reusable spacecraft), but there is a logistical element necessary too. Currently spaceflight is rare because it is expensive - but also, it is expensive because it is rare. Much of the cost is not actually in the rockets themselves, but in all the logistics around a rocket launch that could be amortized across several launches if only there were several launches to amortize across, but there are not. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 19:02:23 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:02:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 11:10 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > To answer your question: space habs aren?t there yet. There are > technologies missing, such as how to make food from sunlight a looooot more > efficiently than putting it thru vegetables. > Doesn't mean we can't think of how space habitats might govern themselves once we - or our descendants - someday do get the necessary technology, though. ;) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 19:06:51 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:06:51 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: <20200926112639.Horde._5-Z-zM-dpvAN-RQuRFHYYC@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200926112639.Horde._5-Z-zM-dpvAN-RQuRFHYYC@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 11:37 AM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > We need to quit making excuses for extinction and invest in research > in nuclear rocketry. > The problem of nuclear rocketry is more political than technological at this time. There are people working on political solutions. I can disclose more information offlist if desired. The nature of the political problem includes trying to avoid, at this stage, speaking in public in ways that someone might take out of context and loudly (and falsely) claim that one wishes to unleash unshielded dirty-bomb-like nuclear material all over populated areas right now. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 19:09:32 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:09:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <24e33e08-bf09-3364-5a2b-8da9300f0080@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 10:54, John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > Well for starters, a person could vote for someone who has at least a > chance, however slight, of actually stopping a narcissistic dictator in > training and not wasting it on a silly worthless gesture, also known as > a vote for a third-party candidate who doesn't have a snowball's chance > in hell of winning even a single electoral vote. Are you content with rule by the Biparty? Would you like to see it continue forever? If not, when might be a convenient time to do something about it? Because I hear this EVERY SINGLE CYCLE: "sure we'd like to see the Biparty destabilized, but THIS election is too important bla bla bla" Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! Wolf! -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 19:21:46 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:21:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 10:06, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > I'm guessing court-packing will be the way the Democrats can deal with > this problem. Once that happens, though, then I think it'll be hard to > stop each party from using it. The limit will be the need to control > both houses of the Congress to carry it out. (Court-packing would > probably have the effect of neutralizing the Supreme Court -- I mean > neutralizing its supposed role of balancing against the other branches > of the government.) Court-packing is a problem that tries to solve another problem. Here is a way to avoid both. https://reason.com/2020/09/23/two-cheers-for-supreme-court-term-limits/ I don't think term limits a necessary element of the scheme; fixed periodic appointments go most of the way to solve the problem. If increasing longevity makes the court awkwardly big, and the court itself cannot solve that problem (e.g. by drawing lots for which N members shall hear each case), then we can discuss a Constitutional Amendment to limit terms. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 19:25:03 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:25:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <8ed839af-b13a-6848-1b22-cc1b673069f3@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 11:25, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > Also, have you seen that Maine is trying out ranked voting? [...] > In which case, one can vote third party and still rank other choices > above the person one doesn't want to see win. For instance, someone > might vote for the LP candidate first with the Democratic Party > candidate ranked second. That wouldn't result in the outcome you fear, > no? Do we know if someone (naming no names) also fears letting a Minor Party candidate win an Elector? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 19:25:52 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:25:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 11:31 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Well, it depends on what state a person is voting in. In a state where > your vote is unlikely to have an impact, then it almost certainly > doens't matter. If you're in a competitive state, that's another > matter. (I've gone over this before.) > Actually, there's enough of a chance that this election will go to extra-legal routes that there's a good case to be made for the raw popular vote mattering, even if technically the Electoral College would moot it in many states. (Part of that extra-legal is: the more the popular vote goes to Biden, the less likely Trump's people are to detain Biden electors and substitute their own.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 19:34:10 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 12:34:10 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <24e33e08-bf09-3364-5a2b-8da9300f0080@pobox.com> References: <24e33e08-bf09-3364-5a2b-8da9300f0080@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:19 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Are you content with rule by the Biparty? > > Would you like to see it continue forever? > > If not, when might be a convenient time to do something about it? > When we're still dealing with Biparty, and not likely about to switch to Monoparty if one side wins. Further, any alternative to the Biparty will need to first have a bunch of Senators/Representatives/Governors, before having a realistic chance of securing the Presidency. That said, for non-Presidential races, third party votes might be a good idea - at least in races that are not tight enough that a few votes might tip the balance to the Republicans, but there seem to be few if any of those in this cycle. On the issue of "lock the Republican party into dominance", third parties are 100% aligned with the Democratic party on stopping that notion, so other issues have room to matter. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From rocket at earthlight.com Sat Sep 26 20:23:53 2020 From: rocket at earthlight.com (Re Rose) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 16:23:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Cryonics Research Message-ID: Greetings, all! I would like to chat briefly off-list with folks who are doing research in cryonics (cryopreservants, non-destructive cooling procedures, neural information quantification, etc). If anyone is interested, please send me a message - thank you :) best Regina -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 20:32:33 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 13:32:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <812f5e4f-862f-ddad-9eef-a2c3f01e2236@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 03:33, BillK via extropy-chat wrote: > For millions of people, creating virtual worlds to live in will be > much cheaper, more comfortable and much more attractive. In the Before Times, someone predicted that civilization would eventually consist of an incandescent sphere one metre across. Incandescent because of the density of processing; small because of FOMO, the finite speed of signal propagation, and the greater speed of upload thought. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 20:37:21 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 21:37:21 +0100 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 26/09/2020 15:24, spike wrote: > > OK well, we need data to solve a scientific puzzle.? The Florida > governor has lifted all quarantine restrictions yesterday (I heard, > don?t know the details.) > > There is nothing political about it as far as I can tell, so that > shouldn?t come into play here. > > We see the new case rate is steady for the past coupla months, so now > we get to compare a restrictions states to a big no-restrictions state. > > Somebody had to do this eventually.? Florida is the state.? Here we go. > > Predictions anyone? > Well here's my prediction (more a hope than a prediction, really). Cases will rise dramatically. Deaths will rise much less dramatically, or hopefully not at all. The hypothesis here is that the virus is mutating to be less lethal, and lifting restrictions will enable the milder form to spread rapidly. More infections, less death (including the economic kind caused by these restrictions). Everybody wins, including the virus (well, maybe not literally everybody, but many more than otherwise). -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 20:48:00 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 21:48:00 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <18af9095-d981-0341-121f-03d2ff478a42@zaiboc.net> On 26/09/2020 19:20, John Grigg wrote: > I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being > headquartered in America is advantageous. I'm just thinking that being headquartered where most of the members are is no good if you're headed for a future dominated by religious nutcases who wouldn't hesitate to shut down the entire godless operation and condemn all the patients to permanent death. > > Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? i have no idea of the answer to that. Needs quite a bit of research. -- Ben Zaiboc From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 21:00:58 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:00:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <0bd20bea-fc91-15b5-197b-6f0c57c291a5@pobox.com> On 2020-9-18 14:43, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > I was given the nickname Spike as a misunderstanding > of someone calling me ?Spock? from Star Trek. Aw, you could have been Spoke. Or Spank or Spork. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 21:05:08 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 22:05:08 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <96d54677-53ee-95ec-9f34-0c8f051ef394@zaiboc.net> On 26/09/2020 19:20, spike wrote: > > > *On Behalf Of *John Grigg via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance > > >?Spike, as our resident engineer, does Ben's math check out?? :? ) > > Ja, sure does. > > John we knew back in the early 90s that any notion of people living > long term in space was really dependent on Single Stage To Orbit, or > failing that? all recoverable everything.? We knew you don?t build a > 737 in Seattle, fly it to Orlando, unload the passengers, then hurl it > into the sea.? No part of that aircraft is thrown out. > > Space hardware is inherently expensive, that isn?t going to change.? > Until we get some way to get stuff to orbit cheaply, none of the > space-hab notions are practical.? All supplies need to be hauled up > there for a long time.? We can?t do that at $10K per kilo, which is > one man-day of food.? Can?t do that now, can?t do it later. > > To answer your question: space habs aren?t there yet.? There are > technologies missing, such as how to make food from sunlight a looooot > more efficiently than putting it thru vegetables. > > It pains me to be the wet blanket on the notion, but I used to it.? I > ended up in the same position with the early 90s engineering teams > working on SSTO: I calculated that anything you can do with one stage > can be done better with two.? Turns out that was true then and still > is now. > > We aren?t there on space habs. > > spike > I feel that this is missing my point. I'm not saying it's too expensive (although it is), I'm saying we just don't have enough energy available, and are unlikely to ever have it, this side of the singularity. That's a much more fundamental constraint than monetary cost. It's physics, not economics. The OP was about governance systems for populations in space. We aren't ever going to have large enough populations (of biological humans) in space to make thinking about governance systems for them worthwhile. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 21:16:31 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:16:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <96d54677-53ee-95ec-9f34-0c8f051ef394@zaiboc.net> References: <96d54677-53ee-95ec-9f34-0c8f051ef394@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:09 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I'm saying we just don't have enough energy available, and are unlikely to > ever have it, this side of the singularity. > Looking at historical rates of increase in energy production and certain other data, I can say with almost 100% certainty that you are incorrect on this point. The "almost" is if the Singularity happens in the next few decades, before we could reach the necessary energy availability (including that the portion available for space access will be a small fraction of the total). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 21:17:39 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 22:17:39 +0100 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: > Dylan Distasio wrote*:* > > >?New case counts are absolutely meaningless for a number of reasons.? > The only metrics to watch are ICU admissions and deaths. > > >?By those measures, there is no second wave including in Europe. > > >?I'd suggest reading this: > > https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/ > If the graph in that article (https://lockdownsceptics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/gompertz-death.png) is accurate, it tells us all we need to know. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 21:26:12 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:26:12 -0700 Subject: [ExI] software hipsters, do advise please Message-ID: <015701d6944b$a8ca0c00$fa5e2400$@rainier66.com> I do request advice from anyone here who knows from commercial apps. Our school district is in a bit of bother: we had some teachers who decided to call it a day rather than redoing their curriculum they have been coasting on for the past 30 yrs. So now we need to hire some young talent however. the rental prices in the area close to the Tesla factory are beyond ludicrous, they are. plaid. The young talent wants to teach here, but the starting salary doesn't cover the cost of a studio apartment, never mind what happens if they want to.like. eat. People who own granny units in the back of their house want to rent those if possible, but if they advertise it, they must take whoever the rental agent brings (or risk lawsuit.) A young teacher is an ideal tenant for the school board screens them 17 ways to Sunday, can guarantee they have never done anything to make the district unwilling to hire, never committed assault or serious mass murder. If we had some means of bringing these two together, advertise room availability to school district employees first (and perhaps only.) Appsters, does something like that already exist? Or something that can be adapted for specifically rental real estate for a specific limited audience? Thanks! spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 21:32:58 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:32:58 -0700 Subject: [ExI] smoke 'em dano In-Reply-To: <0bd20bea-fc91-15b5-197b-6f0c57c291a5@pobox.com> References: <020001d68de8$27fba2a0$77f2e7e0$@rainier66.com> <021f01d68df0$8b2d7d50$a18877f0$@rainier66.com> <025101d68dfd$69931ee0$3cb95ca0$@rainier66.com> <029a01d68e04$ba7bd7a0$2f7386e0$@rainier66.com> <0bd20bea-fc91-15b5-197b-6f0c57c291a5@pobox.com> Message-ID: <016401d6944c$9a985c30$cfc91490$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Anton Sherwood Subject: Re: [ExI] smoke 'em dano On 2020-9-18 14:43, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > I was given the nickname Spike as a misunderstanding of someone > calling me ?Spock? from Star Trek. Aw, you could have been Spoke. Or Spank or Spork. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org Tis tragic. Spork would have a funky hybrid sound, Spoke would remind one of Zarathustra, Spank would have a titillating vaguely sexy angle perhaps. But no, I was nicknamed after a musical comedian. This would be fine had it been Weird Al, but no. Anton, how can we advertise availability of a limited market for rental rooms to a limited market of hungry carefully-prescreened young professionals (many of whom may be attractive young ladies?) I can imagine plenty of people would rent rooms in their own homes if they knew someone was carefully filtering out the axe murderers. spike From bronto at pobox.com Sat Sep 26 21:35:30 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:35:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <60fe4d9f-c398-eb45-fad7-447dc5c0681d@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 11:00, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We knew you don?t build a 737 in Seattle, fly it to Orlando, unload the > passengers, then hurl it into the sea. I didn't get where I am today by flying anything to Orlando. > working on SSTO: I calculated that anything you can do with one stage > can be done better with two.? Turns out that was true then and still is now. Why is that? And can both stages be recovered? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 21:49:33 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 14:49:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <60fe4d9f-c398-eb45-fad7-447dc5c0681d@pobox.com> References: <3f9a62d8-8011-c15a-331b-f1bc59d16804@zaiboc.net> <006101d6942e$eacedbc0$c06c9340$@rainier66.com> <60fe4d9f-c398-eb45-fad7-447dc5c0681d@pobox.com> Message-ID: <016b01d6944e$ec024520$c406cf60$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: Anton Sherwood Sent: Saturday, September 26, 2020 2:36 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: spike at rainier66.com Subject: Re: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance On 2020-9-26 11:00, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > We knew you don?t build a 737 in Seattle, fly it to Orlando, unload > the passengers, then hurl it into the sea. I didn't get where I am today by flying anything to Orlando. > working on SSTO: I calculated that anything you can do with one stage > can be done better with two. Turns out that was true then and still is now. Why is that? And can both stages be recovered? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org Both stages must be fully recovered before the whole idea is a go. A reasonable middle ground exists: the second stage goes to orbit to stay. The second-stage motor need not be enormous to lift a tank of fuel with the remaining cargo to orbit. That part would be a throw-away (in a sense) but we could get a pressure vessel into LEO, tether it to another similar tank, get them rotating about a common center for a small but comforting gravity-like environment (0.1 G might be enough.) That isn't exactly recoverable, but getting useful materials to orbit is (in a way) better than recovering it. So that idea is really kind of a hybrid: first stage fully recoverable, second stage fully useable. spike From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 22:19:34 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 15:19:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] software hipsters, do advise please In-Reply-To: <015701d6944b$a8ca0c00$fa5e2400$@rainier66.com> References: <015701d6944b$a8ca0c00$fa5e2400$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: That seems more like a business arrangement than a software app. Have someone authorized by the school board go out seeking these granny units, and when found, match them to would-be young teachers. On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:30 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > I do request advice from anyone here who knows from commercial apps. > > > > Our school district is in a bit of bother: we had some teachers who > decided to call it a day rather than redoing their curriculum they have > been coasting on for the past 30 yrs. So now we need to hire some young > talent however? the rental prices in the area close to the Tesla factory > are beyond ludicrous, they are? plaid. > > > > The young talent wants to teach here, but the starting salary doesn?t > cover the cost of a studio apartment, never mind what happens if they want > to?like? eat. > > > > People who own granny units in the back of their house want to rent those > if possible, but if they advertise it, they must take whoever the rental > agent brings (or risk lawsuit.) A young teacher is an ideal tenant for the > school board screens them 17 ways to Sunday, can guarantee they have never > done anything to make the district unwilling to hire, never committed > assault or serious mass murder. > > > > If we had some means of bringing these two together, advertise room > availability to school district employees first (and perhaps only.) > > > > Appsters, does something like that already exist? Or something that can > be adapted for specifically rental real estate for a specific limited > audience? > > > > Thanks! > > > > spike > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 22:23:13 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 18:23:13 -0400 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 9:48 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > *The Florida governor*has lifted all quarantine restrictions yesterday > (I heard, don?t know the details.) There is nothing political about it as > far as I can tell, > Not political? You must be kidding! Yesterday alone there were 122 deaths in Florida from COVID-19 and there were 2,847new cases of it. And summer ended 5 days ago so we are now entering the time of the year that historically virus's seem to love best. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sat Sep 26 22:31:54 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 15:31:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <018f01d69454$d6caffc0$8460ff40$@rainier66.com> From: John Clark Sent: Saturday, September 26, 2020 3:23 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: Gregory Jones Subject: Re: [ExI] southern data On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 9:48 AM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > The Florida governorhas lifted all quarantine restrictions yesterday (I heard, don?t know the details.) There is nothing political about it as far as I can tell, >?Not political? You must be kidding! Yesterday alone there were 122 deaths in Florida from COVID-19 and there were 2,847new cases of it? What is political about people dying of COVID? >?And summer ended 5 days ago so we are now entering the time of the year that historically virus's seem to love best. John K Clark What is political about a virus? favorite time of year? Governors makes the call on lockdowns based on the benefit/harm ratio perceived. Perhaps I should have said there is no clear partisan political angle to it. Viruses don?t have a favorite party. Floridians elected a guy to make that call. He has. Now we will see how it works out. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sat Sep 26 22:53:23 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 23:53:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> On 26/09/2020 22:33, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:09 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > I'm saying we just don't have enough energy available, and are > unlikely to ever have it, this side of the singularity. > > > Looking at historical rates of increase in energy production and > certain other data, I can say with almost 100% certainty that you are > incorrect on this point. Well, I hope you're right. If you are, then never mind space colonisation, with that much energy available, things would be vastly different here on earth! -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sat Sep 26 23:02:30 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 16:02:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 3:54 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 26/09/2020 22:33, Adrian Tymes wrote: > > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:09 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I'm saying we just don't have enough energy available, and are unlikely >> to ever have it, this side of the singularity. >> > > Looking at historical rates of increase in energy production and certain > other data, I can say with almost 100% certainty that you are incorrect on > this point. > > > Well, I hope you're right. If you are, then never mind space colonisation, > with that much energy available, things would be vastly different here on > earth! > ...which, depending on the details, might be why millions of people leave the planet. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 00:42:45 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:42:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> References: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <4ab03137-23c4-229a-5c96-2639ebd33fd1@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 07:04, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And that > can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or if, for > the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely available, people > will still live largely in virtual environments, wherever they are > physically located. And there's a humongous amount of living room > available in the solar system, even more so when you only need a few > cubic millimetres of space to live in. On yet another hand, what if micro-humans lived in the physical world, "living lightly on the land"? How many could live off the amount of power consumed by, say, a rabbit? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 00:59:06 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 17:59:06 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <27e3763f-4916-5354-b615-5e3ca7da82d5@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. Oh? What's the other one? > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the future. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 01:01:50 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 01:01:50 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> References: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 7:22 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-26 10:06, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > I'm guessing court-packing will be the way the Democrats can deal with > > this problem. Once that happens, though, then I think it'll be hard to > > stop each party from using it. The limit will be the need to control > > both houses of the Congress to carry it out. (Court-packing would > > probably have the effect of neutralizing the Supreme Court -- I mean > > neutralizing its supposed role of balancing against the other branches > > of the government.) > > Court-packing is a problem that tries to solve another problem. > Here is a way to avoid both. > https://reason.com/2020/09/23/two-cheers-for-supreme-court-term-limits/ > > I don't think term limits a necessary element of the scheme; fixed > periodic appointments go most of the way to solve the problem. > If increasing longevity makes the court awkwardly big, and the court > itself cannot solve that problem (e.g. by drawing lots for which N > members shall hear each case), then we can discuss a Constitutional > Amendment to limit terms. Nothing wrong with considering that too. I mean for those inclined to keep the basic system intact. I read that article earlier too. I was thinking 18 years is very long. If I were forced to design such a system, I'd probably go with 9 to 11 years. Why? If that's the only change, then this is long enough that the president who appoints the judge is not going to be in office to appoint that same judge's successor given term limits on presidents. I'd also be inclined to having similar terms limits on federal judges across the board, making a similar around a decade limit. This would stop what we have now: one president who's really got a huge number of appointments because the Senate stymied the process for the previous president. (Not that the previous president was somehow better, but gaming the process managed to allow one party -- more one faction of one party to nearly take over the judiciary below the USSC level.) I hope they consider ways of making appointments to the courts way less political -- maybe by using sortition or distributing the process. For instance? Sortition, as mentioned elsewhere, or rotating who gets to decide appoints, letting me out of the box... Other things to make political input harder in the selection process. None of these would be foolproof. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 01:08:22 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 01:08:22 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <8ed839af-b13a-6848-1b22-cc1b673069f3@pobox.com> References: <8ed839af-b13a-6848-1b22-cc1b673069f3@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 7:25 PM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-26 11:25, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > > Also, have you seen that Maine is trying out ranked voting? [...] > > In which case, one can vote third party and still rank other choices > > above the person one doesn't want to see win. For instance, someone > > might vote for the LP candidate first with the Democratic Party > > candidate ranked second. That wouldn't result in the outcome you fear, > > no? > > Do we know if someone (naming no names) also fears letting a Minor Party > candidate win an Elector? I imagine that would that person's fear because a minor party getting an elector... The horror scenario for them would be that their preferred candidate loses electors to, say, the Green Party while their most feared candidate still had enough to win. I imagine this can go along with the argument that the SDS, for all their hard work, helped get Nixon into power. In each case with the LP, the elector was lost by the GOP candidate: Nixon lost one elector to the LP in 01972 and Trump lost one to the LP in 02016. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 01:35:52 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 18:35:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <8ed839af-b13a-6848-1b22-cc1b673069f3@pobox.com> Message-ID: <3caae73a-0e2d-0ef1-3d40-d8b27c3074ac@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 18:08, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > Nixon lost one elector to the LP in 01972 and Trump lost one to the LP > in 02016. I learn something every day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Recorded_faithless_electors -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 02:04:35 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 19:04:35 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-26 18:01, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > I'd also be inclined to having similar terms limits on federal judges > across the board, making a similar around a decade limit. This would > stop what we have now: one president who's really got a huge number of > appointments because the Senate stymied the process for the previous > president. (Not that the previous president was somehow better, but > gaming the process managed to allow one party -- more one faction of > one party to nearly take over the judiciary below the USSC level.) > > I hope they consider ways of making appointments to the courts way > less political -- maybe by using sortition or distributing the > process. For instance? Sortition, as mentioned elsewhere, or rotating > who gets to decide appoints, letting me out of the box... Other things > to make political input harder in the selection process. None of these > would be foolproof. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but here is my modest proposal: Abolish the Federal judiciary. Let "federal" matters be heard by the courts of the appropriate State, and appealed (once by each party to the case) to any other State. The Tenth Amendment would be taken more seriously; and precedents would develop by consensus among equals rather than by infallible decree from the apex. Such a reform will obviously never happen, as it must be initiated by Federal politicians. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 02:40:09 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 22:40:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <27e3763f-4916-5354-b615-5e3ca7da82d5@pobox.com> References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> <27e3763f-4916-5354-b615-5e3ca7da82d5@pobox.com> Message-ID: Alcor leadership at one point, was exploring the idea of using a very hard to access abandoned mine about an hour's drive from Phoenix, as a back-up location for their dewars. I don't see Alcor ever moving, unless they are severely persecuted by U.S. government authorities. On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 9:01 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-26 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with > > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country > > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. > > Oh? What's the other one? > > > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the > > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the > future. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 03:29:09 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 20:29:09 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 11:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them to be spun >> up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and imposed-by-human-biology) >> standard that people might not want to mess with it. 2 km wide suggests >> maybe 5 km long maximum, for structural stability. >> > > What about rotational stability? Wouldn't want your habitats flipping when > they're full of people. > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU > Per that video, you weight it so the axis of rotation is not the one that's going to cause that sort of flipping. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 03:43:31 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 20:43:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00b801d69480$5eb25ac0$1c171040$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Sent: Saturday, September 26, 2020 8:29 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: Adrian Tymes Subject: Re: [ExI] Space governance On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 11:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat > wrote: On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > wrote: If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them to be spun up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and imposed-by-human-biology) standard that people might not want to mess with it. 2 km wide suggests maybe 5 km long maximum, for structural stability. What about rotational stability? Wouldn't want your habitats flipping when they're full of people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU >?Per that video, you weight it so the axis of rotation is not the one that's going to cause that sort of flipping? Hi Adrian, ja. What I had in mind really is hauling fuel tanks on up to orbit to convert them to something useful there, forget re-entering the atmosphere. When you watch that spinning wrench, what might not be obvious is that the axis about which the wrench is set to spinning is not the axis of maximum moment of inertia, but rather the axis between the minimum and maximum moments. You can create a maximally stable rotating object such as a disc, and there is no possible instability. If we imagine a Space Shuttle main tank, emptied of fuel and oxygen, then inhabited, we could rotate it about the transverse axis: perfectly stable. Rotate about the longitudinal axis: unstable. So? get two of them, tie them together with a cable, get them rotating about the center of the cable. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 04:38:18 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 21:38:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] China's military power implications for American companies, investors In-Reply-To: <20200926072609.Horde.eLSPj6cMJcs-Y_OAbFTf6ww@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> References: <20200926072609.Horde.eLSPj6cMJcs-Y_OAbFTf6ww@secure199.inmotionhosting.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-26 07:26, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat wrote: > Taiwan is the last remnant of O.G. China. It is where Chiang Kai-shek > and his family holed up after Mao Zedong took over the mainland. They > are the last remnant of the former government of China. Some would add > legitimate. Well, as legitimate as a state can be. Beijing, I hear, goes a bit nuts whenever a politician in Taiwan proposes to declare independence. If I had any friends in the political class of the First Republic, I'd suggest that it instead *grant* independence to each of the mainland provinces. Nothing wrong with that, surely? If it's true that China is and has always been *by nature* a harmonious whole, as Beijing insists, then even without a shared overlord the provinces ought to get along swimmingly. Incidentally I think I've seen a map showing that the First Republic has paper claims to some bits of land that the PRC does not claim! ... In ?The Diamond Age? we learn that, a ~century hence, the Empire still (or again) governs some slivers of its old realm. That notion appeals to me; see also the remnant Duchy of Burgundy in ?Passport to Pimlico?. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 05:25:15 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 05:25:15 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:05 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: > On 2020-9-26 18:01, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> I'd also be inclined to having similar terms limits on federal judges >> across the board, making a similar around a decade limit. This would >> stop what we have now: one president who's really got a huge number of >> appointments because the Senate stymied the process for the previous >> president. (Not that the previous president was somehow better, but >> gaming the process managed to allow one party -- more one faction of >> one party to nearly take over the judiciary below the USSC level.) >> >> I hope they consider ways of making appointments to the courts way >> less political -- maybe by using sortition or distributing the >> process. For instance? Sortition, as mentioned elsewhere, or rotating >> who gets to decide appoints, letting me out of the box... Other things >> to make political input harder in the selection process. None of these >> would be foolproof. > > Stop me if you've heard this one before, but here is my modest proposal: > Abolish the Federal judiciary. Let "federal" matters be heard by the > courts of the appropriate State, and appealed (once by each party to the > case) to any other State. That could happen now in a sense if the nation as a whole adopted something like the Principles of '98: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principles_of_%2798 Sadly, many of the folks promoting them today are ideologically unreliable. > The Tenth Amendment would be taken more seriously; and precedents would > develop by consensus among equals rather than by infallible decree from > the apex. > > Such a reform will obviously never happen, as it must be initiated by > Federal politicians. If it were to happen, it would probably mean because the central government had to do it to keep whatever power it had left... because individual state governments had become more powerful (with respect to the central government). Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 05:36:40 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2020 22:36:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <9f7f5bd2-74c3-8382-c4f5-2267dd93611f@pobox.com> Message-ID: <8900912d-9b06-953e-0902-260eef164d5e@pobox.com> > On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:05 AM Anton Sherwood wrote: >> Such a reform will obviously never happen, as it must be initiated >> by Federal politicians. On 2020-9-26 22:25, Dan TheBookMan wrote: > If it were to happen, it would probably mean because the central > government had to do it to keep whatever power it had left... > because individual state governments had become more powerful (with > respect to the central government). The old chicken and egg problem. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From tech101 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 06:43:48 2020 From: tech101 at gmail.com (Adam A. Ford) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 16:43:48 +1000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> <27e3763f-4916-5354-b615-5e3ca7da82d5@pobox.com> Message-ID: There is Neural Archives in Southern Cryonics in Australia On Sun, 27 Sep 2020, 12:40 John Grigg via extropy-chat, < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Alcor leadership at one point, was exploring the idea of using a very hard > to access abandoned mine about an hour's drive from Phoenix, as a back-up > location for their dewars. > > I don't see Alcor ever moving, unless they are severely persecuted by U.S. > government authorities. > > > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 9:01 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On 2020-9-26 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: >> > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with >> > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country >> > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. >> >> Oh? What's the other one? >> >> > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the >> > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the >> future. >> >> -- >> *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sun Sep 27 07:10:44 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:10:44 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 27/09/2020 06:37, Anton Sherwood wrote: > n 2020-9-26 07:04, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: >> The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And >> that can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or >> if, for the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely >> available, people will still live largely in virtual environments, >> wherever they are physically located. And there's a humongous amount >> of living room available in the solar system, even more so when you >> only need a few cubic millimetres of space to live in. > > On yet another hand, what if micro-humans lived in the physical world, > "living lightly on the land"?? How many could live off the amount of > power consumed by, say, a rabbit? I don't understand why that's an 'on the other hand'. Minds need a substrate to exist in, whether or not they're biological, and uploads will very likely ultimately need very little physical resources (ultimately, but not at first, when the technology is being refined). I'm envisaging a situation where your mind is running in a substrate that only occupies a few cubic millimetres, and needs substantially less energy than a human brain (this is not a superintelligent mind, just human-equivalent). Whether or not you also control robotic bodies (which could be any size), you'll still have access to virtual worlds, so you'd be able to live in both the 'physical world' and whatever virtual worlds you choose, in whatever combinations you choose (e.g. various flavours of augmented reality, etc. You could really blur the distinction between 'virtual' and 'real' until it was pretty much meaningless. That awful film "Valerian and the city of a thousand planets" gives a partial glimpse of what I mean). I expect this to be true of all uploads, whether they stay on earth or not. Anton, would you please set your replies up so they don't CC me as well as posting to the list? I don't need both. Thanks. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 07:14:36 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 03:14:36 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <4ab03137-23c4-229a-5c96-2639ebd33fd1@pobox.com> References: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> <4ab03137-23c4-229a-5c96-2639ebd33fd1@pobox.com> Message-ID: But wouldn't human cognitive abilities steeply decline, if people were made roughly the size/mass of an average rabbit? Or even smaller? I recall quite a few science fiction books and tv series, about tiny humans trying to survive in a hostile world. I did enjoy the recent film with Matt Damon, "Downsized." Get shrunk and your money goes so much further! Lol On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 8:46 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-26 07:04, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And that > > can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or if, for > > the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely available, people > > will still live largely in virtual environments, wherever they are > > physically located. And there's a humongous amount of living room > > available in the solar system, even more so when you only need a few > > cubic millimetres of space to live in. > > On yet another hand, what if micro-humans lived in the physical world, > "living lightly on the land"? How many could live off the amount of > power consumed by, say, a rabbit? > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sun Sep 27 07:20:58 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:20:58 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 27/09/2020 06:37, John Grigg wrote: > I don't see Alcor ever moving, unless they are severely persecuted by > U.S. government authorities. > > > On 2020-9-26 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world > with > > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a > country > > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. > > > > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where > in the > > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into > the future. > That's my worry. If that ever happens, it will be too late to move. And moving to a backup site in the same country is no use if the government of that country is after you. Their ability to locate you will always be better than your ability to hide, if they have sufficient motivation (such as moral outrage in a religious dystopia). -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sun Sep 27 07:32:42 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:32:42 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <4e2ccd0e-f3e0-aa6f-1391-5bb73f814706@zaiboc.net> On 27/09/2020 06:37, Adrian Tymes wrote: > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 11:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them > to be spun up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and > imposed-by-human-biology) standard that people might not want > to mess with it.? 2 km wide suggests maybe 5 km long maximum, > for structural stability. > > > What about rotational stability? Wouldn't want your habitats > flipping when they're full of people. > > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU > > > Per that video, you weight it so the axis of rotation is not the one > that's going to cause that sort of flipping. That would mean short, fat cylinders, not long thin ones, no? It's interesting that we hadn't really understood this until relatively recently. Makes me wonder what other physics we are still completely in the dark about. I'm also wondering if a long thin cylinder flipping about a perpendicular axis would be the disaster we are assuming (everything inside being thrown about). What forces would the people inside actually feel? Is it possible they wouldn't even notice unless they were looking out of the window? Maybe it would be a cool quirk of orbital habitats, and only be awkward for docking and astronomical observations, rather than disastrous. -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 07:38:52 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 00:38:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> <4ab03137-23c4-229a-5c96-2639ebd33fd1@pobox.com> Message-ID: <40765555-c128-e2f7-3e7c-0be9c941955e@pobox.com> On 2020-9-27 00:14, John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > But wouldn't human cognitive abilities steeply decline, if people were > made roughly the size/mass of an average rabbit? Or even smaller? What would be the volume and power consumption of a rod-logic nano computer equivalent to a human brain? Some extropian less lazy than I must have worked that out. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 07:43:10 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 03:43:10 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: What about space elevators? This is a science fiction trope that has always captured my imagination! I have read that we may be about 30 years away from materials science giving us what's needed to actually build a beanstalk to the stars... I heard one estimate that claimed a space elevator could put a pound of colonist/equipment into orbit for only fifty dollars! An astonishingly low figure! A working space elevator would usher in a new era of pioneering for humanity. On Sat, Sep 26, 2020, 7:04 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 3:54 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On 26/09/2020 22:33, Adrian Tymes wrote: >> >> On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 2:09 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> I'm saying we just don't have enough energy available, and are unlikely >>> to ever have it, this side of the singularity. >>> >> >> Looking at historical rates of increase in energy production and certain >> other data, I can say with almost 100% certainty that you are incorrect on >> this point. >> >> >> Well, I hope you're right. If you are, then never mind space >> colonisation, with that much energy available, things would be vastly >> different here on earth! >> > > ...which, depending on the details, might be why millions of people leave > the planet. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 07:46:23 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 09:46:23 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 9:12 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > On 27/09/2020 06:37, Anton Sherwood wrote: > > n 2020-9-26 07:04, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > The virtual worlds scenario is much much more likely, I agree. And that can integrate with uploading too, so I'd expect even when (or if, for the pessimists) we do crack uploading and it's widely available, people will still live largely in virtual environments, wherever they are physically located. And there's a humongous amount of living room available in the solar system, even more so when you only need a few cubic millimetres of space to live in. > > > On yet another hand, what if micro-humans lived in the physical world, "living lightly on the land"? How many could live off the amount of power consumed by, say, a rabbit? > > > I don't understand why that's an 'on the other hand'. Minds need a substrate to exist in, whether or not they're biological, and uploads will very likely ultimately need very little physical resources (ultimately, but not at first, when the technology is being refined). I guess far future technology will permit going beyond micro/nano scales and upload consciousness directly to quantum fields, or whatever lies beneath quantum fields. Arthur Clarke hinted at this concept in 2001: "In their ceaseless experimenting, they had learned to store knowledge in the structure of space itself, and to preserve their thoughts for eternity in frozen lattices of light. They could become creatures of radiation, free at last from the tyranny of matter. Now they were lords of the galaxy, and beyond the reach of time. They could rove at will among the stars, and sink like a subtle mist through the very interstices of space.? > I'm envisaging a situation where your mind is running in a substrate that only occupies a few cubic millimetres, and needs substantially less energy than a human brain (this is not a superintelligent mind, just human-equivalent). Whether or not you also control robotic bodies (which could be any size), you'll still have access to virtual worlds, so you'd be able to live in both the 'physical world' and whatever virtual worlds you choose, in whatever combinations you choose (e.g. various flavours of augmented reality, etc. You could really blur the distinction between 'virtual' and 'real' until it was pretty much meaningless. That awful film "Valerian and the city of a thousand planets" gives a partial glimpse of what I mean). I expect this to be true of all uploads, whether they stay on earth or not. > > Anton, would you please set your replies up so they don't CC me as well as posting to the list? I don't need both. Thanks. > > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 07:57:04 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 03:57:04 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I'm amazed that at this point there is not a fully equipped cryonics facility in Japan. It seems like something they would heartily embrace. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 3:26 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 27/09/2020 06:37, John Grigg wrote: > > I don't see Alcor ever moving, unless they are severely persecuted by U.S. > government authorities. > > > On 2020-9-26 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: >> > It's extremely worrying that the only two countries in the world with >> > working cryonics facilites are a totalitarian oligarchy and a country >> > rapidly becoming a religious dystopia. >> >> >> > Maybe it's time for Alcor to start seriously considering where in the >> > world it should be located, to have any chance of surviving into the >> future. >> > > That's my worry. If that ever happens, it will be too late to move. And > moving to a backup site in the same country is no use if the government of > that country is after you. Their ability to locate you will always be > better than your ability to hide, if they have sufficient motivation (such > as moral outrage in a religious dystopia). > > -- > Ben Zaiboc > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 08:38:41 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 01:38:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <9d36a3af-c2fe-72d9-acea-a22d32ff3903@pobox.com> On 2020-9-27 00:10, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > I'm envisaging a situation where your mind is running in a substrate > that only occupies a few cubic millimetres, and needs substantially > less energy than a human brain (this is not a superintelligent mind, > just human-equivalent). Whether or not you also control robotic > bodies (which could be any size), you'll still have access to virtual > worlds, so you'd be able to live in both the 'physical world' and > whatever virtual worlds you choose, in whatever combinations you > choose (e.g. various flavours of augmented reality, etc. We're on the same page, but: if we make a bar-chart of people according to how they divide their time between the virtual and the physical, I imagine it as lower in the middle and I guess you imagine the opposite. > You could really blur the distinction between 'virtual' and 'real' > until it was pretty much meaningless. [....]) Somehow that gives me the creeps. Can the uncanny valley effect be triggered by imagining an abstraction?? > That awful film "Valerian and the city of a thousand planets" gives a > partial glimpse of what I mean). Too bad I won't see it, then :/ > I expect this to be true of all uploads, whether they stay on earth > or not. In Egan's ?Diaspora? there is a sharp division between the fleshers, living on Earth as moderately enhanced mammals; the "polis citizens", software on big computers buried in permafrost; and the "gleisner robots", who are mobile and live on the Moon and beyond. A former gleisner, who immigrated to the polis that is the principal setting, shows a polis native something interesting in sixteen dimensions. The native asks, "How did a gleisner conceive of this?" The immigrant replies, "Why do you think I immigrated?" A polis can be anywhere, but they are all on Earth (with backups scattered about the System). Presumably they enjoy proximity for speed of communication; and on Earth they have protection against solar weather, I guess. > Anton, would you please set your replies up so they don't CC me as > well as posting to the list? I don't need both. Thanks. Ah, old habit. I'm on a couple of other lists -- one of which was, for a bunch of years, the most voluminous of my collective penpals -- that (a) do not set Reply-To and (b) do not send to addresses listed explicitly in the headers, so the redundancy is harmless. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From johnkclark at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 11:33:33 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 07:33:33 -0400 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <018f01d69454$d6caffc0$8460ff40$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <018f01d69454$d6caffc0$8460ff40$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: To whom it may concern, in the following I am just answering questions directed at me by Spike Jones. On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 6:34 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >>?Not political? You must be kidding! Yesterday alone there were 122 >> deaths in Florida from COVID-19 and there were 2,847new cases of it? > > > > *> What is political about people dying of COVID?* > You must be kidding! The current Florida governor is a classic Trump zombie and politics Is responsible for most of those 122 deaths that occurred yesterday in Florida not the virus. > *Governors makes the call on lockdowns based on the benefit/harm ratio > perceived. * > I agree, and the Trump zombie currently in charge of Florida perceives the ultimate benefit is the reelection of the president and the ultimate harm would be for anybody else to become president. People dying in his state has nothing to do with it. *>Viruses don?t have a favorite party. * > Oh but they do!! COVID-19 just loves the official republican dogma as spewed out of Trump's pie hole, it wouldn't be half the virus it is without it. John K Clark > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 12:10:32 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:10:32 +0100 Subject: [ExI] 4.5 Cryonics Institutes now. Message-ID: USA, Russia, China & 0.5 Australia. See: Quote: Du?s remains were preserved at the Alcor Life Extension Foundation, a US cryonics service provider based in Phoenix, Arizona. In the same year, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute was set up in Jinan, in eastern China. (The other two global cryonics institutes are the Cryonics Institute in the US state of Michigan, and KrioRus in Russia.) ----------------- The 0.5 in progress is in Australia. Southern Cryonics: Australia?s first body-freezing facility attracting huge numbers Published: 21/05/2020 --------------------------- BillK From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 13:10:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 06:10:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <5e756cbb-2f45-dc6d-f3ab-1640ac9b87cf@zaiboc.net> <4ab03137-23c4-229a-5c96-2639ebd33fd1@pobox.com> Message-ID: <013c01d694cf$8acf7080$a06e5180$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of John Grigg via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance >?But wouldn't human cognitive abilities steeply decline, if people were made roughly the size/mass of an average rabbit? Or even smaller? Good question John. >?I recall quite a few science fiction books and tv series, about tiny humans trying to survive in a hostile world. >?I did enjoy the recent film with Matt Damon, "Downsized." Get shrunk and your money goes so much further! Lol How cool to be a homebuilder in a downsized world. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 13:44:54 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 06:44:54 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: <4e2ccd0e-f3e0-aa6f-1391-5bb73f814706@zaiboc.net> References: <4e2ccd0e-f3e0-aa6f-1391-5bb73f814706@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <016b01d694d4$622444d0$266cce70$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat > That would mean short, fat cylinders, not long thin ones, no? Hi Ben, Ja, or we attach masses on the rim in order to make the axis of rotation the maximum moment of inertia. > It's interesting that we hadn't really understood this until relatively recently. Makes me wonder what other physics we are still completely in the dark about. We were weren?t really in the dark on this one. Granted the weightless environment offered a lot of cool chances to do stuff like this (and by the way do you ever wonder what we are STILL doing in the space station?) I could write on and on about this topic, but perhaps at some point you saw a toy which looks like ? of a sphere with a cylinder attached. The physics teacher spins the tippy top, it turns upside down: https://www.real-world-physics-problems.com/tippe-top.html#:~:text=The%20tip pe%20top%20is%20a,in%20an%20upside%2Ddown%20orientation. She asks her students: did the CG of the tippy top rise in inversion? Clearly it did. And so how and why? Did it borrow energy from the universe somehow? And if so, is the universe willing to loan some more of that? etc. We love this one, because it is a rare example of where guys with the physics degrees don?t always understand it but the controls engineers do. Usually the physics jockey hafta explain everything to us bonehead engineers, but we show them this, which appears to defy conservation of energy. It doesn?t, and it isn?t magic. We controls engineers have equations which deal with products of inertia and even have that icky coefficient of friction that physicists don?t like to deal with, all those distasteful non-linearities, swoon. > I'm also wondering if a long thin cylinder flipping about a perpendicular axis would be the disaster -- Ben Zaiboc That isn?t what happens. More later if I get time. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 13:51:40 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 21:51:40 +0800 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <9d36a3af-c2fe-72d9-acea-a22d32ff3903@pobox.com> References: <9d36a3af-c2fe-72d9-acea-a22d32ff3903@pobox.com> Message-ID: "A polis can be anywhere, but they are all on Earth (with backups scattered about the System). Presumably they enjoy proximity for speed of communication; and on Earth they have protection against solar weather, I guess." > Anton, would you please set your replies up so they don't CC me as > well as posting to the list? I don't need both. Thanks. "Ah, old habit. I'm on a couple of other lists -- one of which was, for a bunch of years, the most voluminous of my collective penpals -- that (a) do not set Reply-To and (b) do not send to addresses listed explicitly in the headers, so the redundancy is harmless." Anton, I have a feeling you may outlive all of us, due to your habit of automatically making back-up copies! Well, at least if mind downloading happens within your lifetime... Lol On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 4:41 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-27 00:10, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > > I'm envisaging a situation where your mind is running in a substrate > > that only occupies a few cubic millimetres, and needs substantially > > less energy than a human brain (this is not a superintelligent mind, > > just human-equivalent). Whether or not you also control robotic > > bodies (which could be any size), you'll still have access to virtual > > worlds, so you'd be able to live in both the 'physical world' and > > whatever virtual worlds you choose, in whatever combinations you > > choose (e.g. various flavours of augmented reality, etc. > > We're on the same page, but: if we make a bar-chart of people according > to how they divide their time between the virtual and the physical, I > imagine it as lower in the middle and I guess you imagine the opposite. > > > You could really blur the distinction between 'virtual' and 'real' > > until it was pretty much meaningless. [....]) > > Somehow that gives me the creeps. Can the uncanny valley effect be > triggered by imagining an abstraction?? > > > That awful film "Valerian and the city of a thousand planets" gives a > > partial glimpse of what I mean). > > Too bad I won't see it, then :/ > > > I expect this to be true of all uploads, whether they stay on earth > > or not. > > In Egan's ?Diaspora? there is a sharp division between the fleshers, > living on Earth as moderately enhanced mammals; the "polis citizens", > software on big computers buried in permafrost; and the "gleisner > robots", who are mobile and live on the Moon and beyond. > A former gleisner, who immigrated to the polis that is the principal > setting, shows a polis native something interesting in sixteen > dimensions. The native asks, "How did a gleisner conceive of this?" > The immigrant replies, "Why do you think I immigrated?" > > A polis can be anywhere, but they are all on Earth (with backups > scattered about the System). Presumably they enjoy proximity for speed > of communication; and on Earth they have protection against solar > weather, I guess. > > > Anton, would you please set your replies up so they don't CC me as > > well as posting to the list? I don't need both. Thanks. > > Ah, old habit. I'm on a couple of other lists -- one of which was, for > a bunch of years, the most voluminous of my collective penpals -- that > (a) do not set Reply-To and (b) do not send to addresses listed > explicitly in the headers, so the redundancy is harmless. > > -- > *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 14:01:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 07:01:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <018f01d69454$d6caffc0$8460ff40$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <018601d694d6$b5e76000$21b62000$@rainier66.com> From: John Clark Subject: Re: [ExI] southern data >?To whom it may concern, in the following I am just answering questions directed at me by Spike Jones. COVID-19 just loves the official republican dogma ?John K Clark There is no objective truth in politics. Only opinions. We have a place for that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From ben at zaiboc.net Sun Sep 27 14:16:31 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 15:16:31 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <8ee436a6-7315-e092-e201-d0e36aaa915c@zaiboc.net> On 27/09/2020 14:47, Adam A. Ford wrote: > There is Neural Archives in Southern Cryonics in Australia Thanks, Adam, I didn't know about this. Nor about the one in China, but China's another totalitarian country, so not of interest to anyone who can avoid it. Australia looks promising, Democratic, low religiosity. The downside is distance. I see there's also a cryonics organisation in Switzerland, but they don't have a storage facility, and it looks like they don't plan to. -- Ben Zaiboc From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 14:49:57 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 07:49:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 12:47 AM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > What about space elevators? This is a science fiction trope that has > always captured my imagination! I have read that we may be about 30 years > away from materials science giving us what's needed to actually build a > beanstalk to the stars... > The main problem with space elevators appears to be more political than technological: one would need to forbid any satellites low enough to potentially crash into it, which is pretty much all non-GEO satellites that don't have their own engines. This would include forcibly deorbiting any satellites whose engines malfunction, or whose controllers won't have it dodge the elevator for whatever reason - but a bigger problem is that the vast majority of satellites today don't have their own engines, and would need to be taken down before a space elevator's first cables could be safely deployed. If, say, the space elevator was primarily US-controlled (or allies such as the EU, UK, or Australia), it is quite possible that Russia or China would consider the forcible deorbiting of their satellites to be an act of war - possibly even just the forcible deorbiting of their space junk that is otherwise of no value. Consider how the US would likely react - regardless of which political party was in office - if Russia or China started deorbiting US satellites, claiming it was a necessary first step toward the imminent deployment of a space elevator (let alone how Russia or China might react to the other party deorbiting their satellites under the same pretext). There don't seem to be any neutral party capable of deploying a space elevator any time this century, without enough assistance from one of those three groups that it would be (correctly) treated as essentially being the assisting party's space elevator. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 15:25:49 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:25:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] spinning space wrenches was: RE: Space governance Message-ID: <01e801d694e2$7ab09180$7011b480$@rainier66.com> From: spike at rainier66.com . >.Usually the physics jockey hafta explain everything to us bonehead engineers, but we show them this, which appears to defy conservation of energy. It doesn't, and it isn't magic. We controls engineers have equations which deal with products of inertia and even have that icky coefficient of friction that physicists don't like to deal with, all those distasteful non-linearities, swoon.. That isn't what happens. More later if I get time. spike There is an experiment I have wanted to do for a long time but I live where the temperature hasn't been cool enough for the past 24 years. Get a container with enough water to create a perfectly smooth sheet of ice. Might need to leave it out, freezes, go over it with a cool iron (the kind we used to press a crease in trousers a looooong long time ago) creating a thin layer of water like a miniature Zamboni, let it re-freeze so you get a sheet of perfectly smooth ice. Then spin a tippee top on that. Demonstrate that without friction, it cannot get to its feet. Reasoning: to raise the CG, the spinning top has to borrow rotational energy and dump some of it in the process. Ah, got you there, say the physicists. Are you claiming rotational energy is lost to potential energy? No, reply the bonehead engineers. We know that angular momentum is conserved. A bit of the angular momentum from the tippee top goes into rotational energy of the planet. Without friction, the tippee top can't dump that angular momentum and cannot get to its. foot. Fun aside: those same equations explain why you have never seen a scaled-up tippee top. Ja I know it is mind-boggling, but all the conservation laws still work: nothing failed. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 15:28:30 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 08:28:30 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: <4e2ccd0e-f3e0-aa6f-1391-5bb73f814706@zaiboc.net> References: <4e2ccd0e-f3e0-aa6f-1391-5bb73f814706@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 12:34 AM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 27/09/2020 06:37, Adrian Tymes wrote: > > On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 11:38 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Fri, Sep 25, 2020 at 12:50 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> If these habitats are, say, cylinders 2 km wide, to allow them to be >>> spun up to 1 G, that's enough of a technical (and imposed-by-human-biology) >>> standard that people might not want to mess with it. 2 km wide suggests >>> maybe 5 km long maximum, for structural stability. >>> >> >> What about rotational stability? Wouldn't want your habitats flipping >> when they're full of people. >> >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VPfZ_XzisU >> > > Per that video, you weight it so the axis of rotation is not the one > that's going to cause that sort of flipping. > > > That would mean short, fat cylinders, not long thin ones, no? > How short and fat, though? If 2 km wide by 5 km long is too long and thin... 2 km diameter is not the minimum for safe 1 G spin gravity (studies suggest 500 m, possibly smaller - see https://www.artificial-gravity.com/sw/SpinCalc/ if you wish to play with the numbers). Wider is certainly possible. If 2x5 is enough for about 628K people, then 4x4 (so that length does not exceed width) should allow just over 2M. The counterpoint, at least in the system I had been thinking of, is that the first habitat would start off only 100 meters - possibly only 10 meters - wide, since in its earliest days it would host less than 100 people for a while (less than 10 to start), and making far more habitat than necessary would be difficult to justify. 2x0.01 would still be enough for over 1,250 people; 4x0.01 could house over 5,000. If the eventual "objective" is to go to 4 km wide, there will be a stronger temptation to start off with just 500 km wide (0.5x0.01 is small enough that we're talking a single apartment building of about 31K square meters; even if we allocate 90% of the space to workshops, labs, agriculture, and open space, that's still right sized for about 100 people) - but once the initial radius is established, it will be far more difficult to expand the radius (which involves disrupting existing residential areas) than to simply extend the disc into a cylinder (which does not disrupt anyone's living situation). One could perhaps fully enclose the first cylinder within a wider second cylinder, but that presents a source of danger so long as the first cylinder spins much faster than the second within the second; the residents could be transitioned to the second cylinder once it's ready, and the first despun, but there will likely be resistance to "abandoning" the "historical" first colony structure. There will be even more resistance if the first cylinder is not within the second, as they will be seen as entirely different habitats. A much higher chance of long term success can be had by just starting at the radius it is desired to end up at. It's interesting that we hadn't really understood this until relatively > recently. Makes me wonder what other physics we are still completely in the > dark about. > My hunch is that the nature of dark matter/energy will become clearer once we have observatories scattered around the solar system (if not before then), and may well come down to the margin of error from Earth-only observations including results with strange consequences that will be ruled out by the greater precision such system-wide observation baselines will give. I'm also wondering if a long thin cylinder flipping about a perpendicular > axis would be the disaster we are assuming (everything inside being thrown > about). What forces would the people inside actually feel? Is it possible > they wouldn't even notice unless they were looking out of the window? Maybe > it would be a cool quirk of orbital habitats, and only be awkward for > docking and astronomical observations, rather than disastrous. > No, it'd be brief but it would be significant turbulence for anyone inside. For spin gravity to work properly, the object providing spin gravity has to spin and experience no other motion. Any other motion is felt as other motion. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 17:33:48 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 10:33:48 -0700 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector Message-ID: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> Has anyone here ever heard of a smoke detector with a transmitter? What if you have a shed near your house and if something catches on fire out there you want to hear a smoke alarm inside your house where you might be sleeping but it is far enough back there you might not hear it. A stand-alone super loud alarm might work but one with a radio transmitter to inside might work better. I don?t recall ever having seen one like that. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 17:54:29 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 12:54:29 -0500 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I'll bet without looking it up, that if you have a whole house and yard system it would alert you no matter which sensor was going off. (Why do we call it going off when it is going on?) bill w On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 12:35 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > Has anyone here ever heard of a smoke detector with a transmitter? What > if you have a shed near your house and if something catches on fire out > there you want to hear a smoke alarm inside your house where you might be > sleeping but it is far enough back there you might not hear it. A > stand-alone super loud alarm might work but one with a radio transmitter to > inside might work better. I don?t recall ever having seen one like that. > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 18:10:37 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 19:10:37 +0100 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, 27 Sep 2020 at 18:36, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Has anyone here ever heard of a smoke detector with a transmitter? What if you have a shed near your house and if something catches on fire out there you want to hear a smoke alarm inside your house where you might be sleeping but it is far enough back there you might not hear it. A stand-alone super loud alarm might work but one with a radio transmitter to inside might work better. I don?t recall ever having seen one like that. > > spike > _______________________________________________ Search for smart smoke alarms - they send a message to your phone. Or wireless interconnected smoke alarms - when one goes off, they all go off, range up to about 50 meters. BillK From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 18:30:42 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 11:30:42 -0700 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ >...Search for smart smoke alarms - they send a message to your phone. Or wireless interconnected smoke alarms - when one goes off, they all go off, range up to about 50 meters. BillK _______________________________________________ Cool thanks BillK, found em. It was just knowing what to search on: wireless interconnected smoke alarms. They don't even cost much, excellent. In our world today, any product you can easily imagine that would be useful, someone somewhere thought of it years ago and already built a factory somewhere to make those. spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 18:54:58 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 18:54:58 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <8ee436a6-7315-e092-e201-d0e36aaa915c@zaiboc.net> References: <8ee436a6-7315-e092-e201-d0e36aaa915c@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:18 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > On 27/09/2020 14:47, Adam A. Ford wrote: > > There is Neural Archives in Southern Cryonics in Australia > > > Thanks, Adam, I didn't know about this. > > Nor about the one in China, but China's another totalitarian country, so > not of interest to anyone who can avoid it. > > Australia looks promising, Democratic, low religiosity. The downside is > distance. > > I see there's also a cryonics organisation in Switzerland, but they > don't have a storage facility, and it looks like they don't plan to. Aside from political freedom and social stability, I believe one should consider other factors like geology and weather. What would be the ideal locations for a cryonics facility on Earth? Well, in places that are politically free (especially with respect to tolerating cryonics:), don't have episodic radical changes in the politics or society (not someplace that's a fledgling democracy that might revert back to an authoritarian state or that has frequent large-scale social unrest*), not near places prone to large-scale industrial accidents (like in Beirut recently), not prone to earthquakes and the like (might rule out Japan), and don't face much in the way of extreme weather events and other natural disasters (e.g., not in the likely path of typhoons). Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst * I don't mean stuff like now in the US, which many here seem to think is a prelude to the end of civilization. I mean stuff like the Mexican Dirty War. From pharos at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 19:01:53 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 20:01:53 +0100 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, 27 Sep 2020 at 19:33, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Cool thanks BillK, found em. It was just knowing what to search on: wireless interconnected smoke alarms. > > They don't even cost much, excellent. > > In our world today, any product you can easily imagine that would be useful, someone somewhere thought of it years ago and already built a factory somewhere to make those. > > spike > _______________________________________________ The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) BillK From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 19:13:34 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 14:13:34 -0500 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) Bill I turn my alarm system off when I brown my steaks for the Maillard reaction. bill w On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:03 PM BillK via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, 27 Sep 2020 at 19:33, spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > Cool thanks BillK, found em. It was just knowing what to search on: > wireless interconnected smoke alarms. > > > > They don't even cost much, excellent. > > > > In our world today, any product you can easily imagine that would be > useful, someone somewhere thought of it years ago and already built a > factory somewhere to make those. > > > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > > The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected > smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... > the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) > > > > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 19:23:57 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 12:23:57 -0700 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02c201d69503$bf9c2450$3ed46cf0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ >...The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) BillK _______________________________________________ Ja, easy solution: don't burn breakfast. Other consideration: the detectors are in my house, my garage, my shed, my camper and my truck. If I burn my breakfast, I don't care if those other four locations have startled and annoyed cockroaches. But if some mostly peaceful protester firebombs my shed, I want to know about it in time to extinguish it perhaps. spike From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 19:26:59 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 12:26:59 -0700 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <02c501d69504$2badb320$83091960$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) Bill >?I turn my alarm system off when I brown my steaks for the Maillard reaction. bill w My solution to that is to cook outdoors if it is meat and anything using grease. I have a microwave out there and a Webber grill. I have been doing it that way for 25 years. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 20:01:19 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:01:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <8ee436a6-7315-e092-e201-d0e36aaa915c@zaiboc.net> References: <8ee436a6-7315-e092-e201-d0e36aaa915c@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On 2020-9-27 07:16, Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > I see there's also a cryonics organisation in Switzerland, but they > don't have a storage facility, and it looks like they don't plan to. Oh? What do they do? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 20:11:26 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:11:26 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <1d332a7c-94b3-b876-32b0-8ba557b86fea@pobox.com> On 2020-9-27 00:43, John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > What about space elevators? One concern is that a climber spends days in the Van Allen Belts. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 20:14:53 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:14:53 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <000d01d69423$6881edc0$3985c940$@rainier66.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> <000d01d69423$6881edc0$3985c940$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <17361410-8b91-43d2-fd0b-a6dd9698ab24@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 09:38, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > In any case... Italians make gorgeous bikes and cars, and I heard > they painted up the ceiling in one of their churches really nice > with angels and that kinda crap. "And *one* Christ!" -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 20:20:33 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:20:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <0db27ab5-04ea-be7f-649a-c28f136e5da9@pobox.com> On 2020-9-26 11:37, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: > I presume the Google car goes through when it goes through and that's > that. I've even seen street views here (Seattle) that are way out of > date. It went through my town while a roundabout by the freeway was being built. I now see that it has been back since. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 20:26:32 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:26:32 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <1d332a7c-94b3-b876-32b0-8ba557b86fea@pobox.com> References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> <1d332a7c-94b3-b876-32b0-8ba557b86fea@pobox.com> Message-ID: <001601d6950c$7d7f01b0$787d0510$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance On 2020-9-27 00:43, John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > What about space elevators? One concern is that a climber spends days in the Van Allen Belts. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org _______________________________________________ Ja, but that isn't the real show stopper. Even if some miracle material is found, such as carbon nanotubes and such, and even if we figure out how to deal with radiation... everything in orbit, every dead satellite, every piece of debris from anything at any time still on orbit, every fleck of paint and grain of space dust... crosses the equatorial plane twice every orbit. The concentration of that stuff gets greater all the way down to about 400 km altitude, at which time it starts to decrease because of drag from traces of atmosphere. Somewhere around 400 km, the space debris erodes or saws our marvelous space cable right off. spike From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 20:47:23 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:47:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Space governance In-Reply-To: <001601d6950c$7d7f01b0$787d0510$@rainier66.com> References: <1512db9d-292f-c39f-b6d0-b0a97e9c170d@zaiboc.net> <1d332a7c-94b3-b876-32b0-8ba557b86fea@pobox.com> <001601d6950c$7d7f01b0$787d0510$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 1:33 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat > > On 2020-9-27 00:43, John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > >> What about space elevators? > > One concern is that a climber spends days in the Van Allen Belts. > > Ja, but that isn't the real show stopper. Even if some miracle material is > found, such as carbon nanotubes and such, and even if we figure out how to > deal with radiation... everything in orbit, every dead satellite, every > piece of debris from anything at any time still on orbit, every fleck of > paint and grain of space dust... crosses the equatorial plane twice every > orbit. The concentration of that stuff gets greater all the way down to > about 400 km altitude, at which time it starts to decrease because of drag > from traces of atmosphere. > > Somewhere around 400 km, the space debris erodes or saws our marvelous > space > cable right off. > Not to mention all those still-in-active-service but thrusterless satellites. Trying to remove it gets big guns from the US, Russia, and/or China pointed your way, depending on whose "debris" you take down first. (If you're doing it without permission, but they won't give permission unless the space elevator is for their use, which means not for use by whoever they declare to be their enemies.) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 21:23:15 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 14:23:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <540fa175-f73c-8c4b-108d-c0fa993de1a2@pobox.com> How about this. People are grouped into neighborhoods of 60. Each draws lots to choose one representative to a council of 60. Each council, in turn, draws lots to choose one representative to a higher council of 60 ... I pick 60 as the magic number so that each member's fellow councillors are no more than half their Dunbar number, to reduce a tendency to see the council as their community. A government for the present world population would thus have five tiers of councils. I wonder though, is it better for a legislature to have a highly composite number (https://oeis.org/A002182) of seats, or a prime number? Is there anything in the poli sci literature? On 2020-9-25 09:48, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > One drawback is that, by the time you get to 100,000,000 people, even > the "upper"/per-habitat legislative body will have hundreds of members, > and the "lower"/per-census legislative body will probably have > thousands.? There will be pressure to group up, maybe to create a > Senate-of-Senate with a population no more than 100 where all the > members can at least try to speak to each other on a one-on-one basis. > But then, jockeying to be part of that body will strive to represent > some large minority to the exclusion of the rest of the collective. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 21:25:39 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 16:25:39 -0500 Subject: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector In-Reply-To: <02c501d69504$2badb320$83091960$@rainier66.com> References: <023b01d694f4$5c5cb940$15162bc0$@rainier66.com> <027701d694fc$4f0ab6e0$ed2024a0$@rainier66.com> <02c501d69504$2badb320$83091960$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Not to worry. Though I do turn off my alarm, I have a hood venting through the roof and turn it on High. Story - remember when blackened snapper was popular? We fell in love with Paul Prudhomme and tried his recipe for that. Black iron skillet, well-seasoned. AFter a couple of minutes (cooked on High) the kitchen filled up with smoke, so Roz got a big box fan and turned it on me. I could barely see her (no hood then) Put the fish on and finished it. It was great! But no more indoors for that recipe. Paul one of two autographs I have. The other is Masters, of Masters and Johnson. bill w On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:31 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > > > > *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat > *Subject:* Re: [ExI] transmitter smoke detector > > > > The main problem I foresee with installing a batch of interconnected > smoke alarms is that when you burn your breakfast toast....... > the noise!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!! :) > > Bill > > >?I turn my alarm system off when I brown my steaks for the Maillard > reaction. bill w > > > > > > My solution to that is to cook outdoors if it is meat and anything using > grease. I have a microwave out there and a Webber grill. I have been > doing it that way for 25 years. > > > > spike > > > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 21:29:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 14:29:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] southern data In-Reply-To: <0db27ab5-04ea-be7f-649a-c28f136e5da9@pobox.com> References: <00b701d6940b$634f70b0$29ee5210$@rainier66.com> <00e201d69410$bb0876d0$31196470$@rainier66.com> <005b01d6941e$12515c60$36f41520$@rainier66.com> <0db27ab5-04ea-be7f-649a-c28f136e5da9@pobox.com> Message-ID: <002101d69515$4be096b0$e3a1c410$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] southern data On 2020-9-26 11:37, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >>... I presume the Google car goes through when it goes through and that's > that. I've even seen street views here (Seattle) that are way out of > date. >...It went through my town while a roundabout by the freeway was being built. I now see that it has been back since. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org _______________________________________________ I saw something cool when I was looking around Giulio's neighborhood in Budapest. If you go into Google street view, a lotta times it will drop you onto a walking path or alley or some place you clearly cannot drive your Detroit. Whoever made those was on foot. That would be cool if Yanks would do that. spike From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 21:41:03 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 14:41:03 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... Message-ID: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> In spite of its challenges, living in California has its moments of levity. Our legislature decided that prisoners must be housed according to the gender they claim rather than what is found between their legs. OK then. Prisoners. I do recognize that I am a stodgy old geezer in some ways. Such as. how tragically many decades ago I was born. But it just feels to me like that plan has some inherent challenges. OK but I am not the legislature, and so now we get these brutal rapists claiming to be women showing up in Chowchilla looking for some action. I have an idea. My idea requires an even number of such opportunist prisoners. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From bronto at pobox.com Sun Sep 27 22:17:31 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 15:17:31 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On 2020-9-27 14:41, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > OK but I am not the legislature, and so now we get these brutal rapists > claiming to be women showing up in Chowchilla looking for some action. Rather than getting arrested an' all, wouldn't it have been simpler to get jobs as guards? -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Sun Sep 27 22:57:22 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 15:57:22 -0700 Subject: [ExI] earthquake! Message-ID: <006801d69521$8f99d090$aecd71b0$@rainier66.com> 3:54 pm PDT. That was a sharp P-wave, must be close by. Guessing about a 4. Probably up along the Calaveras. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 23:10:41 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 18:10:41 -0500 Subject: [ExI] earthquake! In-Reply-To: <006801d69521$8f99d090$aecd71b0$@rainier66.com> References: <006801d69521$8f99d090$aecd71b0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GN8VV8CHnrk On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 5:59 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > 3:54 pm PDT. > > > > That was a sharp P-wave, must be close by. Guessing about a 4. Probably > up along the Calaveras. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From msd001 at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 23:35:56 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 19:35:56 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 6:19 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On 2020-9-27 14:41, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > OK but I am not the legislature, and so now we get these brutal rapists > > claiming to be women showing up in Chowchilla looking for some action. > > Rather than getting arrested an' all, wouldn't it have been simpler > to get jobs as guards? > Or... rather than an exploit an awkward edge case in a system with no good way to handle this exception... you could download an app to find mutually consensual hookups. If you really want to double-down on the CON in con-sensual, I'm sure that can be one of your earliest "getting to know you" inquiries. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Sun Sep 27 23:37:50 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 16:37:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: <540fa175-f73c-8c4b-108d-c0fa993de1a2@pobox.com> References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> <540fa175-f73c-8c4b-108d-c0fa993de1a2@pobox.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:25 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > How about this. People are grouped into neighborhoods of 60. Each > draws lots to choose one representative > As low-skilled or malicious as elected representatives can be, randomly selecting people will get even more incompetence on average. Such a government could not function - in the bad sense of "not function". Commons would not be protected. Law would be absent in practice, leading to de facto rule by force instead of rule by representation and law. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 00:27:56 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 17:27:56 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Space governance In-Reply-To: References: <008101d6934d$b5031010$1f093030$@rainier66.com> <540fa175-f73c-8c4b-108d-c0fa993de1a2@pobox.com> Message-ID: <00ad01d6952e$36953270$a3bf9750$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Space governance On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 2:25 PM Anton Sherwood via extropy-chat > wrote: How about this. People are grouped into neighborhoods of 60. Each draws lots to choose one representative >?As low-skilled or malicious as elected representatives can be, randomly selecting people will get even more incompetence on average. Such a government could not function - in the bad sense of "not function". Commons would not be protected. Law would be absent in practice, leading to de facto rule by force instead of rule by representation and law? Adrian that?s what I thought of too. Those who have lived anywhere with a Homeowners Association already know all about the amateur fuehrers who tend to seek those positions. It becomes government by the idle and incompetent. Randomly selecting people wouldn?t help; it might make it worse. Making them a representative rather than given any actual power might not help either. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 01:03:47 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 01:03:47 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 9:45 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > In spite of its challenges, living in California has its moments of levity. > Our legislature decided that prisoners must be housed according to > the gender they claim rather than what is found between their legs. > > OK then. Prisoners. > > I do recognize that I am a stodgy old geezer in some ways. Such as? > how tragically many decades ago I was born. But it just feels to me > like that plan has some inherent challenges. > > OK but I am not the legislature, and so now we get these brutal rapists > claiming to be women showing up in Chowchilla looking for some action. > I have an idea. My idea requires an even number of such opportunist > prisoners? You do know that trans people have a very rough time in prison for being trans. They get abused and even killed. The usual approach, when prison officials care, is to isolate them from the general population -- which almost all means isolating them completely. That does long-term psychological harm. It's not really a joking matter. It's similar to telling a rape joke. I hope you consider how bad this might make the Extropian movement seem. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 01:16:18 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 18:16:18 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 2:45 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > now we get these brutal rapists claiming to be women showing up in > Chowchilla looking for some action. > Claims of rapists pretending to be transgender to gain access to victims, are like claims of voter fraud in the US: the actual thing is practically nonexistant, but the claims themselves are typically used to justify abhorrent behavior. Please do not make such claims. Ever. Again. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 01:22:40 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 21:22:40 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I'd put the chances of voter fraud, particularly in the current cycle with widespread mail in ballots and legal ballot harvesting, as much higher than those of your other scenario. Please do not make such claims. Ever. Again. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 9:17 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > are like claims of voter fraud in the US: the actual thing is practically > nonexistant, > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 01:38:45 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 18:38:45 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 6:28 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I'd put the chances of voter fraud, particularly in the current cycle with > widespread mail in ballots and legal ballot harvesting, as much higher than > those of your other scenario. > Fair for the current year - not because of mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting (neither of which are themselves fraud), but because of the escalation of tactics. I was thinking of previous years, where we have solid documentation of the rarity. For previous years, while the numbers are indeed much higher for voter fraud than the other thing, they both fell into "practically nonexistent". -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 01:47:21 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 21:47:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Fair enough, and I apologise for the tone. I agree in and of themselves there is nothing wrong with either procedure, but as the US social fabric continues to fray, I fear this election is going to be a disaster if it is a close one so I would prefer a blow out regardless of winner. The patchwork of state laws around election procedures is going to exacerbate discord if things are close even without any fraud. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 9:39 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 6:28 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I'd put the chances of voter fraud, particularly in the current cycle >> with widespread mail in ballots and legal ballot harvesting, as much higher >> than those of your other scenario. >> > > Fair for the current year - not because of mail-in ballots and ballot > harvesting (neither of which are themselves fraud), but because of the > escalation of tactics. > > I was thinking of previous years, where we have solid documentation of the > rarity. For previous years, while the numbers are indeed much higher for > voter fraud than the other thing, they both fell into "practically > nonexistent". > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 02:12:40 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 19:12:40 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: And perhaps I should be a bit more clear: I only say "practically nonexistent" because I lack the data to prove literal nonexistent of the rapist-falsely-claiming-transgender side. It seems likely to be literally zero - if there was even one remotely plausible actual case, the transphobes would likely make major efforts to publicize it, yet no such effort is in evidence - but absence of evidence is not proof of absence. I, too, would prefer a landslide either way - a true one. Unfortunately, the way the polls are going these days, if election results indicate a Trump landslide, the results will likely have been fabricated...and if Biden gets a landslide, there will be a long series of legal battles by the Republicans claiming without much (if any) evidence that the results were fabricated. I wouldn't put it past Trump's people to attempt to detain and replace certain electors, well after Election Day, and/or have Republican-controlled state legislatures submit their own electors in states where Biden won, with the Senate insisting that whichever electors vote for Trump must be the true electors. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 6:48 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Fair enough, and I apologise for the tone. I agree in and of themselves > there is nothing wrong with either procedure, but as the US social fabric > continues to fray, I fear this election is going to be a disaster if it is > a close one so I would prefer a blow out regardless of winner. > > The patchwork of state laws around election procedures is going to > exacerbate discord if things are close even without any fraud. > > On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 9:39 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 6:28 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> I'd put the chances of voter fraud, particularly in the current cycle >>> with widespread mail in ballots and legal ballot harvesting, as much higher >>> than those of your other scenario. >>> >> >> Fair for the current year - not because of mail-in ballots and ballot >> harvesting (neither of which are themselves fraud), but because of the >> escalation of tactics. >> >> I was thinking of previous years, where we have solid documentation of >> the rarity. For previous years, while the numbers are indeed much higher >> for voter fraud than the other thing, they both fell into "practically >> nonexistent". >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 02:26:21 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 22:26:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I don't say this as a transphobe, and have no idea how prevalent the issue is, but at least one well documented case exists: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/11/transgender-prisoner-who-sexually-assaulted-inmates-jailed-for-life On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 10:13 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > And perhaps I should be a bit more clear: I only say "practically > nonexistent" because I lack the data to prove literal nonexistent of the > rapist-falsely-claiming-transgender side. It seems likely to be literally > zero - if there was even one remotely plausible actual case, the > transphobes would likely make major efforts to publicize it, yet no such > effort is in evidence - but absence of evidence is not proof of absence. > > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 02:41:46 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 19:41:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Ah so. Thank you, it seems my caution was warranted. I am now aware of exactly one instance where this happened. Still practically nonexistent, relative to the number of transgender people in prison - or especially relative to the number of rapists in prison. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 7:27 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I don't say this as a transphobe, and have no idea how prevalent the issue > is, but at least one well documented case exists: > > > https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/11/transgender-prisoner-who-sexually-assaulted-inmates-jailed-for-life > > On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 10:13 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> And perhaps I should be a bit more clear: I only say "practically >> nonexistent" because I lack the data to prove literal nonexistent of the >> rapist-falsely-claiming-transgender side. It seems likely to be literally >> zero - if there was even one remotely plausible actual case, the >> transphobes would likely make major efforts to publicize it, yet no such >> effort is in evidence - but absence of evidence is not proof of absence. >> >> >> _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 02:48:36 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 19:48:36 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> >...You do know that trans people have a very rough time in prison for being trans... Dan Hi Dan, It isn't about actual trans people, who I completely get. It is about male prisoners pretending to be trans in order to pretend to be female in order to move over to Chowchilla. I vaguely suspect there are male athletes kinda faking it in order to compete in womens' sports already. spike From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 02:58:24 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 22:58:24 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I think a much larger real issue is male rape of other males, both heterosexual and gay, along with transgender woman, but I'm getting off topic here on the terrible realities of prison in general. On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 10:42 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Ah so. Thank you, it seems my caution was warranted. I am now aware of > exactly one instance where this happened. > > Still practically nonexistent, relative to the number of transgender > people in prison - or especially relative to the number of rapists in > prison. > > On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 7:27 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I don't say this as a transphobe, and have no idea how prevalent the >> issue is, but at least one well documented case exists: >> >> >> https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/11/transgender-prisoner-who-sexually-assaulted-inmates-jailed-for-life >> >> On Sun, Sep 27, 2020, 10:13 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> And perhaps I should be a bit more clear: I only say "practically >>> nonexistent" because I lack the data to prove literal nonexistent of the >>> rapist-falsely-claiming-transgender side. It seems likely to be literally >>> zero - if there was even one remotely plausible actual case, the >>> transphobes would likely make major efforts to publicize it, yet no such >>> effort is in evidence - but absence of evidence is not proof of absence. >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 03:04:34 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 20:04:34 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005d01d69544$1830e2a0$4892a7e0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: spike at rainier66.com Subject: RE: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... >...You do know that trans people have a very rough time in prison for being trans... Dan >...Hi Dan, >...It isn't about actual trans people, who I completely get. >...It is about male prisoners pretending to be trans in order to pretend to be female in order to move over to Chowchilla...spike I am surprised at the discussion morphed to known cases: the law in California just passed this week. Dan I have never had any heartburn with actual trans people. My own cousin was born ambiguous gender and never did fully embrace either gender as far as anyone could tell. He eventually settled in with another ambiguous gender with whom xe has been living for over 30 years. In our family we know to not ask too many questions. Ja I know ambiguous gender is not the same as trans. Prisoners have nothing to lose. So do tell me: what do we do if some really scary biological male prisoner claims to be female? From what I am reading, he has the legal right to move over to Chowchilla. Suppose you are the boss. What do we do now, coach? spike From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 03:20:37 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 20:20:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <007e01d69546$5642b530$02c81f90$@rainier66.com> On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 7:27 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat > wrote: >? have no idea how prevalent the issue is, but at least one well documented case exists: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/11/transgender-prisoner-who-sexually-assaulted-inmates-jailed-for-life This is from Britain. It sounds to me like the authorities have the option to call bullshit on the guy. >From the CNN article, it sounded to me like any male prisoner could just say he was now female, and off he goes, no further questions allowed. Of course that could be wrong, but if true, I can see plenty of reasons for men to prefer being locked up with women. Consider those who have no nefarious plans but want to get away from the rapists in the men?s slammer. That plan sounds perfectly reasonable to me. One would think the women?s prison would be a way safer place to serve one?s sentence. Sheesh what a dark topic. I don?t see how this new California plan can work right. My apologies to those who interpreted my original post to be about either elections or actual trans people. It was neither. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 03:54:38 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 23:54:38 -0400 Subject: [ExI] On a more extropian note... Message-ID: Apparently, life may imitate the movie 12 Monkeys! Curious if John or anyone else has any comments on the underlying paper: A Physicist Has Come Up With Math That Makes 'Paradox-Free' Time Travel Plausible DAVID NIELD 26 SEPTEMBER 2020 No one has yet managed to travel through time ? at least to our knowledge ? but the question of whether or not such a feat would be theoretically possible continues to fascinate scientists. As movies such as The Terminator, Donnie Darko, Back to the Future and many others show, moving around in time creates a lot of problems for the fundamental rules of the Universe: if you go back in time and stop your parents from meeting, for instance, how can you possibly exist in order to go back in time in the first place? It's a monumental head-scratcher known as the 'grandfather paradox', but now a physics student Germain Tobar, from the University of Queensland in Australia, says he has worked out how to "square the numbers" to make time travel viable without the paradoxes. "Classical dynamics says if you know the state of a system at a particular time, this can tell us the entire history of the system," says Tobar. "However, Einstein's theory of general relativity predicts the existence of time loops or time travel ? where an event can be both in the past and future of itself ? theoretically turning the study of dynamics on its head." What the calculations show is that space-time can potentially adapt itself to avoid paradoxes. To use a topical example, imagine a time traveller journeying into the past to stop a disease from spreading ? if the mission was successful, the time traveller would have no disease to go back in time to defeat. Tobar's work suggests that the disease would still escape some other way, through a different route or by a different method, removing the paradox. Whatever the time traveller did, the disease wouldn't be stopped. Tobar's work isn't easy for non-mathematicians to dig into, but it looks at the influence of deterministic processes (without any randomness) on an arbitrary number of regions in the space-time continuum, and demonstrates how both closed timelike curves (as predicted by Einstein) can fit in with the rules of free will and classical physics. "The maths checks out ? and the results are the stuff of science fiction," says physicist Fabio Costa from the University of Queensland, who supervised the research. https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physicist-has-come-up-with-the-maths-to-make-time-travel-plausible -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 05:42:37 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2020 22:42:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] On a more extropian note... In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: The paper is less than the article seems. To be short and only somewhat imprecise, it's a better proof than previously existed that, if you assume no Grandfather Paradox, then you get no Grandfather Paradox (and specifically, that physics and causality work in the absence of such paradoxes). On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 8:56 PM Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Apparently, life may imitate the movie 12 Monkeys! Curious if John or > anyone else has any comments on the underlying paper: > > A Physicist Has Come Up With Math That Makes 'Paradox-Free' Time Travel > Plausible > DAVID NIELD > 26 SEPTEMBER 2020 > No one has yet managed to travel through time ? at least to our knowledge > ? but the question of whether or not such a feat would be theoretically > possible continues to fascinate scientists. > > As movies such as The Terminator, Donnie Darko, Back to the Future and > many others show, moving around in time creates a lot of problems for the > fundamental rules of the Universe: if you go back in time and stop your > parents from meeting, for instance, how can you possibly exist in order to > go back in time in the first place? > It's a monumental head-scratcher known as the 'grandfather paradox', but > now a physics student Germain Tobar, from the University of Queensland in > Australia, says he has worked out how to "square the numbers" to make time > travel viable without the paradoxes. > "Classical dynamics says if you know the state of a system at a particular > time, this can tell us the entire history of the system," says Tobar. > "However, Einstein's theory of general relativity predicts the existence > of time loops or time travel ? where an event can be both in the past and > future of itself ? theoretically turning the study of dynamics on its head." > What the calculations show is that space-time can potentially adapt itself > to avoid paradoxes. > > To use a topical example, imagine a time traveller journeying into the > past to stop a disease from spreading ? if the mission was successful, the > time traveller would have no disease to go back in time to defeat. > Tobar's work suggests that the disease would still escape some other way, > through a different route or by a different method, removing the paradox. > Whatever the time traveller did, the disease wouldn't be stopped. > Tobar's work isn't easy for non-mathematicians to dig into, but it looks > at the influence of deterministic processes (without any randomness) on an > arbitrary number of regions in the space-time continuum, and demonstrates > how both closed timelike curves (as predicted by Einstein) can fit in with > the rules of free will and classical physics. > "The maths checks out ? and the results are the stuff of science fiction," > says physicist Fabio Costa from the University of Queensland, who > supervised the research. > > > https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physicist-has-come-up-with-the-maths-to-make-time-travel-plausible > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 06:38:31 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 06:38:31 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 2:50 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: >>...You do know that trans people have a very rough time in prison for being trans... Dan > > Hi Dan, > > It isn't about actual trans people, who I completely get. > > It is about male prisoners pretending to be trans in order to pretend to be female in order to move over to Chowchilla. > > I vaguely suspect there are male athletes kinda faking it in order to compete in womens' sports already. Hi Spike, Vaguely suspect amounts to what? Do you have any credible evidence for these claims? By the way, do you recall the case of the transboy in Texas: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title Note that he wanted to compete with the boys, but the rules forced him to compete with the girls because of what's on the birth certificate. That's not his (or his parents') crafty scheme to win in these competitions. Rather, it's the Texas public school rules. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 06:42:04 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 06:42:04 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 2:14 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > And perhaps I should be a bit more clear: I only say "practically nonexistent" > because I lack the data to prove literal nonexistent of the rapist-falsely-claiming > -transgender side. It seems likely to be literally zero - if there was even one > remotely plausible actual case, the transphobes would likely make major efforts > to publicize it, yet no such effort is in evidence - but absence of evidence is not > proof of absence. It seems to me to be based on unfounded fears. Meanwhile, there are things like rape test kits -- the ones for rapes that actually happened as opposed to imagined ones -- that don't get processed, but things like trans folks using their preferred rest rooms becomes a burning issue. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 06:58:25 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 06:58:25 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <005d01d69544$1830e2a0$4892a7e0$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> <005d01d69544$1830e2a0$4892a7e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 3:06 AM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > I am surprised at the discussion morphed to known cases: the law in California just passed this week. > > Dan I have never had any heartburn with actual trans people. My own cousin was born ambiguous gender and never did fully embrace either gender as far as anyone could tell. He eventually settled in with another ambiguous gender with whom xe has been living for over 30 years. In our family we know to not ask too many questions. Ja I know ambiguous gender is not the same as trans. > > Prisoners have nothing to lose. So do tell me: what do we do if some really scary biological male prisoner claims to be female? From what I am reading, he has the legal right to move over to Chowchilla. Suppose you are the boss. What do we do now, coach? Remember, I'm the person for prison abolition, but looking at reports on the law as passed, it seems it already covers this: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/california-house-transgender-inmates-gender-identity-73268318 '...the state can deny those requests if it has ?management or security concerns.? If a request is denied, the state must give the inmate a written statement explaining the decision and give the inmate a ?meaningful opportunity? to object.' Note earlier in the report too: 'The law ... says officers must ask inmates privately during the intake process if they identify as transgender, nonbinary or intersex. Those inmates can then request to be placed in a facility that houses either men or women.' So, it seems to me your horror scenario of the incarcerated male rapist deciding to say he's now a transwoman is going to not work if he presented beforehand as a man and the law seems to allow the authorities to decide how credible any claims should he try to pass as trans on intake. I don't know more details than this, so I can't really say what the potential for error would be here. If it's anything like the usual experience of trans or non-binary people, my guess is it'll be heavily weighed against them. In other words, simply trying to pass for convenience is going to be hard. (Many anti-trans folks seem to have the view that being trans is too easy. It seems like they think someone wakes up -- probably someone preadolescent in the horror scenario -- and decides they want to be another gender. Then by noon, they get medicated and are prepped for gender affirmation surgery scheduled for the following week.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 07:28:51 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 09:28:51 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting Message-ID: Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here on Earth. https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 07:45:50 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:45:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: "Promise ourselves a great adventure"? Such promises are made to be broken, and too many know it among those who would need to be appeased. We can never "solve our problems down here", in a permanent and complete sense. Declaring that something must wait for that to happen first is literally declaring that said thing must never happen. This applies regardless of what the thing being deferred is, but especially when that thing could help address "our problems down here". Spaceflight, fusion power, you name it. On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 12:30 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting > > I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down > here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great > adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here > on Earth. > > > https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 07:52:58 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 09:52:58 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 9:47 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > > "Promise ourselves a great adventure"? > > Such promises are made to be broken, and too many know it among those who would need to be appeased. > > We can never "solve our problems down here", in a permanent and complete sense. Declaring that something must wait for that to happen first is literally declaring that said thing must never happen. > > This applies regardless of what the thing being deferred is, but especially when that thing could help address "our problems down here". Spaceflight, fusion power, you name it. Adrian, I totally agree with what you say here. This is a worst-case strategy to consider if we are forced to abandon ambitious human spaceflight programs (for you guys in the US, that could start happening in a few weeks). All I mean is that, IF there's no way to do real space in current political conditions, we must not give up hope in the future but keep the fire alive under the ashes. > > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 12:30 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting >> >> I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down >> here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great >> adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here >> on Earth. >> >> https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From atymes at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 07:57:19 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 00:57:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 12:54 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Adrian, I totally agree with what you say here. This is a worst-case > strategy to consider if we are forced to abandon ambitious human > spaceflight programs (for you guys in the US, that could start > happening in a few weeks). All I mean is that, IF there's no way to do > real space in current political conditions, we must not give up hope > in the future but keep the fire alive under the ashes. > Oh, there's a way. It just doesn't rely on government funding. Or doing the expensive approaches first. It's called "bootstrapping". It might take a while longer than if you can spend a bunch of other peoples' money up front, but it's there if you can't. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 08:05:26 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 10:05:26 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 12:54 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> Adrian, I totally agree with what you say here. This is a worst-case >> strategy to consider if we are forced to abandon ambitious human >> spaceflight programs (for you guys in the US, that could start >> happening in a few weeks). All I mean is that, IF there's no way to do >> real space in current political conditions, we must not give up hope >> in the future but keep the fire alive under the ashes. > > > Oh, there's a way. It just doesn't rely on government funding. Or doing the expensive approaches first. > > It's called "bootstrapping". It might take a while longer than if you can spend a bunch of other peoples' money up front, but it's there if you can't. > A LONG while longer if you ask me, but better than nothing. At the same time, we must keep our great expectations for the future alive. Why there's so much dystopian science fiction around? Where is the optimism of golden age space opera? Speaking of that, where is the optimism that this very list used to have twenty years ago? From pharos at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 08:19:29 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 09:19:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 at 09:08, Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: > > A LONG while longer if you ask me, but better than nothing. > At the same time, we must keep our great expectations for the future > alive. Why there's so much dystopian science fiction around? Where is > the optimism of golden age space opera? Speaking of that, where is the > optimism that this very list used to have twenty years ago? > _______________________________________________ Twenty years ago we didn't have powerful home computers, the cloud and virtual reality. (And the outside world future looking really grim). Now anyone can have great adventures anywhere, in the company of many friends, all without moving from our recliner chairs. BillK From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 08:46:16 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 10:46:16 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 10:21 AM BillK via extropy-chat wrote: > > On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 at 09:08, Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > A LONG while longer if you ask me, but better than nothing. > > At the same time, we must keep our great expectations for the future > > alive. Why there's so much dystopian science fiction around? Where is > > the optimism of golden age space opera? Speaking of that, where is the > > optimism that this very list used to have twenty years ago? > > _______________________________________________ > > > Twenty years ago we didn't have powerful home computers, the cloud > and virtual reality. (And the outside world future looking really grim). > Now anyone can have great adventures anywhere, in the company of many > friends, all without moving from our recliner chairs. > And THAT, if you ask me, causes many problems. As someone said (Peter Thiel I think), we wanted cities on the Moon, and we got 140 character tweets instead. I have been an internet evangelist since the very very beginning, but I never considered the internet as a replacement for the real world. A very useful complement yes, but a replacement no. Not the same thing. I see going back to the Moon as going back to the real world. Reality, not videogames. > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From sparge at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 11:45:49 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 07:45:49 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being > headquartered in America is advantageous. > > Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? > Iceland. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 11:52:53 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 07:52:53 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:48 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >>I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being >> headquartered in America is advantageous. >> >> >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? >> > > > Iceland. > *Volcanoes*. Big ones. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 13:59:09 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 09:59:09 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 2:39 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > By the way, do you recall the case of the transboy in Texas: > > > https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title > > Note that he wanted to compete with the boys, but the rules forced him > to compete with the girls because of what's on the birth certificate. > That's not his (or his parents') crafty scheme to win in these > competitions. Rather, it's the Texas public school rules. > > While I think in this case, it makes sense for him to wrestle with boys if he wants to based on his hormone therapy, I definitely don't think the reverse situation is a good idea where transwoman are allowed to compete against cis women. It's indisputable that someone born male who has gotten into the middle of puberty has innate physical advantages over girls on average. Not trying to offend, but I'm curious if you feel the same way in the other direction. I just don't feel like it's a fair fight to take an adult transwoman who transitioned after puberty for example, and wants to fight against cis woman in the ring. There is a real possibility of extreme injury there based on a number of physical factors, some present from birth, and many from high T during puberty. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 15:48:46 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 08:48:46 -0700 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00a001d695ae$da376580$8ea63080$@rainier66.com> >> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > > I vaguely suspect there are male athletes kinda faking it in order to compete in womens' sports already. Hi Spike, >...Vaguely suspect amounts to what? Do you have any credible evidence for these claims? Dan No. I read these opinion pieces which are much closer to the action and have an actual dog in that fight. I don't: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/06/19/transgender-athletes-robbi ng-girls-chance-win-sports-column/4856486002/ I figure the worst that can happen is men will fake being trans in order to glom onto Title IX scholarships. Well, that won't cause any physical harm I suppose. College students are not likely to get too crazy with it either: they have a sense of responsibility and fair play for the most part one might think. This business about the prisoners, oh mercy: you take a bunch of these guys who may be lifers, nothing to lose at all. My intuition tells me that of course they are going to claim to be trans in order to get at female prisoners. The California law just passed this week so we have no case studies yet, but that one should be pretty easy to anticipate. spike From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 16:00:38 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 09:00:38 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00a501d695b0$8277f290$8767d7b0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 at 09:08, Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: > > >... where is the > optimism that this very list used to have twenty years ago? > _______________________________________________ >...Twenty years ago we didn't have powerful home computers, the cloud and virtual reality. (And the outside world future looking really grim). Now anyone can have great adventures anywhere, in the company of many friends, all without moving from our recliner chairs...BillK _______________________________________________ Thanks very insightful comment BillK. Plenty of people would join the current US political riots if they can do so on Zoom. That doesn't cost anything, there is no risk of getting arrested or catching a disease, and one cannot be injured or seriously slain in that medium. Such a deal! Zoom has been an unexpected gift from Y2020. It has been a breakthrough in so many ways. We go to more meetings now, get stuff done, never need to leave the house. Family reunions which were once only discussed for years are now coming together. It's great stuff this online meeting jazz. Now is a fun time to be alive. spike From henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 16:10:11 2020 From: henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com (Henrik Ohrstrom) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 18:10:11 +0200 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <00a001d695ae$da376580$8ea63080$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> <00a001d695ae$da376580$8ea63080$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: 28 sep. 2020 17:51spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > > I figure the worst that can happen is men will fake being trans in order to > glom onto Title IX scholarships. Well, that won't cause any physical harm > I > suppose. > Versions of this exists here and there. Most often in the form of using female uniform when it is crazy hot weather. I don't think there will be many fake trans in any jurisdiction that have any Zane way of handling scholarships and admissions. Not worth the ego hit I would think. /Henrik -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 16:13:37 2020 From: henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com (Henrik Ohrstrom) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 18:13:37 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Reversible dynamics with closed time-like curves and freedom of choice Message-ID: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6382/aba4bc Have read but can't really claim to understand. It is interesting though. /Henrik -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 16:16:43 2020 From: henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com (Henrik Ohrstrom) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 18:16:43 +0200 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: I wote for Finland. They are one of the more not insane folks/places. Island is good on all things except volcano related stuff. /Henrik Den m?n 28 sep. 2020 13:55John Clark via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> skrev: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:48 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >> >>> >>I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being >>> headquartered in America is advantageous. >>> >>> >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? >>> >> >> > Iceland. >> > > *Volcanoes*. Big ones. > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:08:24 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:08:24 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 1:59 PM Dylan Distasio wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 2:39 AM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> By the way, do you recall the case of the transboy in Texas: >> >> https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/25/transgender-wrestler-mack-beggs-wins-texas-girls-title >> >> Note that he wanted to compete with the boys, but the rules forced him >> to compete with the girls because of what's on the birth certificate. >> That's not his (or his parents') crafty scheme to win in these >> competitions. Rather, it's the Texas public school rules. > > While I think in this case, it makes sense for him to wrestle with boys if he > wants to based on his hormone therapy, I definitely don't think the reverse > situation is a good idea where transwoman are allowed to compete against > cis women. It's indisputable that someone born male who has gotten into > the middle of puberty has innate physical advantages over girls on average. I think that really depends on the male. There are definitely males who've reached puberty who are overmatched by females who've reached puberty. It's not like every last male is a superathlete above every last female. Surely, you knew of cis-girls who were simply better at sports or physical activity than some of the cis-boys growing up. I sure did. > Not trying to offend, but I'm curious if you feel the same way in the other > direction. I just don't feel like it's a fair fight to take an adult transwoman > who transitioned after puberty for example, and wants to fight against cis > woman in the ring. There is a real possibility of extreme injury there based > on a number of physical factors, some present from birth, and many from > high T during puberty. I'm not an expert in wrestling, but I don't see why the sport's rules couldn't be revised to deal with that problem -- the one anti-trans folks bring up all the time. For instance, there are already weight classes in both amateur and pro wrestling. Why couldn't something like be worked out to make sure opponents were matched regardless of assigned birth gender? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:10:01 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 13:10:01 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020, 4:48 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I have been an internet evangelist since the very very beginning, but > I never considered the internet as a replacement for the real world. A > very useful complement yes, but a replacement no. Not the same thing. > I see going back to the Moon as going back to the real world. Reality, > not videogames. > I get your point, but you are dismissing a large chunk of humanity as "video games" Instead of VR, let's consider TV. It's mostly just staring blankly for hours on end, but we've spent megabucks (mega megabucks) and millenia of person-hours on this huge waste of attention. We can't honestly examine who/what/how we are without acknowledging that this technology is both shaped by us and also shapes us. I expect VR will be a logical extension of what TV has been for 50+ years, and perhaps what technology of "books" have been since the printing press made them available to the masses. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:34:36 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:34:36 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <00a001d695ae$da376580$8ea63080$@rainier66.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> <00a001d695ae$da376580$8ea63080$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 3:48 PM wrote: > >> On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat > > I vaguely suspect there are male athletes kinda faking it in order to > compete in womens' sports already. > > Hi Spike, > > >...Vaguely suspect amounts to what? Do you have any credible evidence for > these claims? Dan > > > No. I read these opinion pieces which are much closer to the action and > have an actual dog in that fight. I don't: > > https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/06/19/transgender-athletes-robbi > ng-girls-chance-win-sports-column/4856486002/ > > I figure the worst that can happen is men will fake being trans in order to > glom onto Title IX scholarships. I'm not sure any of the cases mentioned are of men faking it. Can you present cases of men faking it to get a sports scholarship? The case I presented of the Texas transboy was one where he was forced to play in women's competitions. This someone assigned female at birth -- rather than the horror scenario of someone assigned male at birth. But even in his case, he wasn't faking it. > Well, that won't cause any physical harm I > suppose. College students are not likely to get too crazy with it either: > they have a sense of responsibility and fair play for the most part one > might think. My guess it'll take time to adjust to accepting trans and non-binary people. > This business about the prisoners, oh mercy: you take a bunch of these guys > who may be lifers, nothing to lose at all. My intuition tells me that of > course they are going to claim to be trans in order to get at female > prisoners. The California law just passed this week so we have no case > studies yet, but that one should be pretty easy to anticipate. Again, the law seems to allow for prison authorities to rule out prisoners based on them being a security risk. Unless the report is mistaken, it seems like they've already thought of your horror scenario and made for a way to avoid it. I can't tell ahead of time, but my guess is that a lifer trying to game the system wouldn't fly. Since he didn't present himself as trans or non-binary entering into the system, he'd have to persuade the authorities that he truly discovered his new gender identity while in prison. I don't know, but my guess would be that'd be a tough sell. Still, let's say it's not. Then what would stop the rules from being changed to make sure someone wasn't lying here? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:38:42 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:38:42 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 11:47 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: >> I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being headquartered in America is advantageous. >> >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? > > > Iceland. Volcanoes, earthquakes, and severe climate would weigh against that, no? Yeah, the plus side, there's political stability, free and tolerant society, and being between North America and Europe. But those geological and climate factors seem to weigh severely against it. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:39:57 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:39:57 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 11:54 AM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:48 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: >> On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: >>> >>> >>I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being headquartered in America is advantageous. >>> >>> >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? >> >> >> > Iceland. > > > Volcanoes. Big ones. Yeah, ones that might be supervolcanoes. Plus earthquakes and quite severe weather. Great place to hike... :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:45:21 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:45:21 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:30 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: > Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting > > I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down > here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great > adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here > on Earth. > > https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 Knee-jerk response: That's never really governed anything else. No one has said, for instance, we should put AI, nanotech research, or life extension research on hold until we solve more pressing problems. In fact, the usual way it works is people do research along many lines and innovations and progress happen in many areas, sometimes only distantly related. In our current situation, there's war, civil unrest, a burgeoning police state, but still SpaceX and other ventures are moving forward on the spaceflight front. Would you say all space stuff has to stop until those other problems are dealt with? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:47:37 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:47:37 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 8:21 AM BillK via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, 28 Sep 2020 at 09:08, Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat > wrote: > > > > A LONG while longer if you ask me, but better than nothing. > > At the same time, we must keep our great expectations for the future > > alive. Why there's so much dystopian science fiction around? Where is > > the optimism of golden age space opera? Speaking of that, where is the > > optimism that this very list used to have twenty years ago? > > _______________________________________________ > > > Twenty years ago we didn't have powerful home computers, the cloud > and virtual reality. (And the outside world future looking really grim). > Now anyone can have great adventures anywhere, in the company of many > friends, all without moving from our recliner chairs. And those great adventures almost invariably involve debating politics in the middle of the night. :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From sparge at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:54:47 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 13:54:47 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 1:43 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 11:47 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat > wrote: > > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being > headquartered in America is advantageous. > >> > >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? > > > > Iceland. > > Volcanoes, earthquakes, and severe climate would weigh against that, > no? Yeah, the plus side, there's political stability, free and > tolerant society, and being between North America and Europe. But > those geological and climate factors seem to weigh severely against > it. > Yeah, I was mostly joking. Didn't think a smiley was necessary, but I was wrong. It's not like we're in a position to really evaluate candidate locations. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From giulio at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 17:59:01 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:59:01 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 2020. Sep 28., Mon at 19:54, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:30 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > > Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting > > > > > > I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down > > > here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great > > > adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here > > > on Earth. > > > > > > > https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 > > > > Knee-jerk response: That's never really governed anything else. No one > > has said, for instance, we should put AI, nanotech research, or life > > extension research on hold until we solve more pressing problems. In > > fact, the usual way it works is people do research along many lines > > and innovations and progress happen in many areas, sometimes only > > distantly related. In our current situation, there's war, civil > > unrest, a burgeoning police state, but still SpaceX and other ventures > > are moving forward on the spaceflight front. Would you say all space > > stuff has to stop until those other problems are dealt with? Dan, I totally agree! I?m saying that some people don?t, and wondering what to do if they get their way. > > > > Regards, > > > > Dan > > Sample my Kindle books via: > > http://author.to/DanUst > > _______________________________________________ > > extropy-chat mailing list > > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 18:45:37 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 11:45:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <000001d695c7$8fa4c8a0$aeee59e0$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat >...but still SpaceX and other ventures are moving forward on the spaceflight front. ... Regards...Dan _______________________________________________ Oh my goodness, are they ever. The town where I misspent my childhood and youth love Elon Musk with all their hearts. The launches are going like nobody's business... Well, retract that, going like Elon's business. One ballsy forward-looking business guy managed to get a rocket to land with dignity on its feet, simultaneously bringing prosperity to my own neighborhood and simultaneously my old friends and family's neighborhood. Musk is a guy who has the reality-distortion-field talent of Steve Jobs but the business skills of Bill Gates, all in one guy. Result: a clear demonstration for why space stuff needs to be done by private industry rather than government. Furthermore... I am assuming ExI types are listening to the Tesla hype on the new storage battery tech. I do hope this guy is telling the truth. I can see at least part of his new pitch is most likely exaggerated: Zero to sixty in under 2 seconds? Eh... show me, don't tell me. A new electric towner that drives itself for 25k? Show me, Elon, and when you do, explain why you did eventually deliver the 35k model 3: about a dozen of them. Hey I understand cost overrun (I worked for Lockheed for 26 years) and we are on your side. But 25k? I don't think so. I might buy one if so, but... I think not. In any case... go Elon! Make it so, sir. Make it sooooo so. By the way... electric cars are all the rage around here. We had our fifth blackout this morning in the past 2 months. My friends nearby are still outta power. I told them come on over, everything is working, including the AC. They will be here in 11 minutes. spike From johnkclark at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 18:53:12 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 14:53:12 -0400 Subject: [ExI] On a more extropian note... In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 1:45 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: >The paper is less than the article seems. > > > *>To be short and only somewhat imprecise, it's a better proof than > previously existed that, if you assume no Grandfather Paradox, then you get > no Grandfather Paradox* > Yeah, if you can't change the past then you haven't really visited the past you've just observed the past. And we can already do that with old movies. John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:05:55 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:05:55 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:05 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 1:43 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 11:47 AM Dave Sill via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so being headquartered in America is advantageous. >> >> >> >> Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? >> > >> > Iceland. >> >> Volcanoes, earthquakes, and severe climate would weigh against that, >> no? Yeah, the plus side, there's political stability, free and >> tolerant society, and being between North America and Europe. But >> those geological and climate factors seem to weigh severely against >> it. > > Yeah, I was mostly joking. Didn't think a smiley was necessary, but I was wrong. When you think you don't need one is when you need one the most. :) > It's not like we're in a position to really evaluate candidate locations. What position would you need to be in to evaluate candidate locations? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 19:17:29 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 12:17:29 -0700 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: <002a01d695cc$02594480$070bcd80$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat >>... Yeah, I was mostly joking. Didn't think a smiley was necessary, but I was wrong. >...When you think you don't need one is when you need one the most. :) Regards, Dan Ja particularly on that topic {discussing alternative sites for cryopreservation.} A lot of us have been thinking about that for a long time. We can easily see the risk of proletariat revolt in the US, and if so, the dewars are at risk. We need a stable place somewhere that no one wants, such as... Greenland? spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:21:04 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:21:04 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:11 PM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: > On 2020. Sep 28., Mon at 19:54, Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:30 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting >> > I'm not that pessimistic, but perhaps we must solve our problems down >> > here before moving up there. If so, we must promise ourselves great >> > adventures in space as soon as we have solved our urgent problems here >> > on Earth. >> >> > https://turingchurch.net/spaceflight-the-only-valid-case-for-waiting-586e932da831 >> >> Knee-jerk response: That's never really governed anything else. No one >> has said, for instance, we should put AI, nanotech research, or life >> extension research on hold until we solve more pressing problems. In >> fact, the usual way it works is people do research along many lines >> and innovations and progress happen in many areas, sometimes only >> distantly related. In our current situation, there's war, civil >> unrest, a burgeoning police state, but still SpaceX and other ventures >> are moving forward on the spaceflight front. Would you say all space >> stuff has to stop until those other problems are dealt with? > > Dan, I totally agree! I?m saying that some people don?t, and wondering what to do if they get their way. For a long time there's been a segment that's adamantly against human spaceflight. Sometimes they get their way, but it would seem now with Dragon II poised to lower human spaceflight costs, they're going to have less of an argument here. The argument relies mainly on the costliness. If the cost drops dramatically, that argument goes away. And then there'll be a shift toward the dangers and the like. (There's already that not with the whinging about radiation loads in deep space or on Mars. I wouldn't underplay these problems, but they do seem to me to be engineering problems AND one can always argue that people with options and informed consent should be able to take those risks.) There's also a strong valid case against waiting. Yeah, technology advances and stuff, but a long setback means the techniques have to be reinvented and skills reacquired. Look at the Saturn V. Now one can argue no one should want to rebuild it -- just like if we're going to have reusable spacecraft, trying to redo the STS (Space Shuttle) would be idiotic -- but one reason it took time to redo this approach (a powerful rocket with a capsule on top -- outside the RSA) is the experience and tech were mostly lost between the last Saturn V flight and our time. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From ben at zaiboc.net Mon Sep 28 19:28:23 2020 From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 20:28:23 +0100 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On 28/09/2020 18:59, Dave Sill wrote: > On Sat, Sep 26, 2020 at 12:39 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat > > wrote: > > I believe the bulk of the membership is still American. And so > being headquartered in America is advantageous. > > Where would be a good place to relocate? Canada? England? Japan? > > > Iceland. > Erk! No!! Iceland sits bang in the middle of the mid-atlantic ridge, and is basically a big cluster of volcanoes. Not a good place to put anything you want to last for a long time! -- Ben Zaiboc -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:29:15 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:29:15 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: <002a01d695cc$02594480$070bcd80$@rainier66.com> References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> <002a01d695cc$02594480$070bcd80$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:19 PM spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Ja particularly on that topic {discussing alternative sites for > cryopreservation.} A lot of us have been thinking about that for a long > time. We can easily see the risk of proletariat revolt in the US, and if > so, the dewars are at risk. We need a stable place somewhere that no one > wants, such as... Greenland? The Greenlanders seem to want it. And I'm not sure about its geologic stability (think melting and calving glaciers, if nothing else), but I imagine weather there is very harsh even in the inhabited parts. So what happens if you need to get someone in during a really bad storm when it might isolated for weeks? I'm not sure of a proletarian revolt in the US either. I'd worry less about proles breaking into the facility and more about, say, the government itself simply outlawing the practice -- maybe on religious grounds probably as cover for wanting to grab the wealth. (I mean along the lines of a family is going into cryopreservation, but their kin deciding that money might be better spent on a summer vacation or a new deck. But no one would say that out loud, so they hire a lawyer who says their dead relative was going against the laws of god and man.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:30:53 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:30:53 +0000 Subject: [ExI] On a more extropian note... In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:55 PM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 1:45 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat wrote: >>> >The paper is less than the article seems. >> >To be short and only somewhat imprecise, it's a better proof than previously existed that, if you assume no Grandfather Paradox, then you get no Grandfather Paradox > > > Yeah, if you can't change the past then you haven't really visited the past you've just observed the past. And we can already do that with old movies. Is that observing the past or observing a present artefact? You might as well say looking at a street sign put up years ago is observing the past. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:34:56 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 19:34:56 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:30 PM Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat wrote: > On 28/09/2020 18:59, Dave Sill wrote: >> Iceland. > > Erk! > > No!! > > Iceland sits bang in the middle of the mid-atlantic ridge, and is basically a big cluster > of volcanoes. Not a good place to put anything you want to last for a long time! I agree, though what should the range of geologic stability be here? I would hazard a guess that places that aren't likely to have a major eruption, landslide, or quake (and specify the range here) over the next two hundred years as a starting point. My presumption here is if the revival problem is likely to be solved, it'll be solved within a century and I'm erroring up to one century and then doubling that. Iceland, Japan, Indonesia, and ring of fire sites would all be off that list. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From sparge at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 19:44:21 2020 From: sparge at gmail.com (Dave Sill) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 15:44:21 -0400 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 3:07 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:05 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat > wrote: > > Yeah, I was mostly joking. Didn't think a smiley was necessary, but I > was wrong. > > When you think you don't need one is when you need one the most. :) > :-) > It's not like we're in a position to really evaluate candidate locations. > > What position would you need to be in to evaluate candidate locations? > Well, we can obviously do that at some level--locations with stability, etc., but a real cryonics operation looking to set up shop would have all sorts of legal, financial, and logistical issues that we can't armchair quarterback. -Dave -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 19:45:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 12:45:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: <000001d695c7$8fa4c8a0$aeee59e0$@rainier66.com> References: <000001d695c7$8fa4c8a0$aeee59e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <003f01d695cf$df976c20$9ec64460$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: spike at rainier66.com >... electric cars are all the rage around here. We had our fifth blackout this morning in the past 2 months. My friends nearby are still outta power. I told them come on over, everything is working, including the AC. They will be here in 11 minutes. spike OK it wasn't what I thought. They shut it down temporarily to reduce load for fire prevention. Considering the recent fires, that makes perfect sense: https://ktla.com/news/california/pge-plans-to-cut-power-to-89000-customers-i n-16-california-counties-due-to-weather-causing-fire-risks/? Now we have a new headache: the power came back on for some of the school district (so they went ahead with classes) but other parts of town are just now coming back online. Some families have multiple layer backups (such as generators and mobile hotspots) while other families sat in the bewildering stillness of powerlessness and internetlessness. Damn. spike From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 20:06:19 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 20:06:19 +0000 Subject: [ExI] The Handmaid's Tale In-Reply-To: References: <3be0f26d-72ed-98d6-5cfe-d0eb9eb4ed68@zaiboc.net> Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 7:56 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 3:07 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:05 PM Dave Sill via extropy-chat >> wrote: >> > Yeah, I was mostly joking. Didn't think a smiley was necessary, but I was wrong. >> >> When you think you don't need one is when you need one the most. :) > > > :-) > >> > It's not like we're in a position to really evaluate candidate locations. >> >> What position would you need to be in to evaluate candidate locations? > > Well, we can obviously do that at some level--locations with stability, etc., > but a real cryonics operation looking to set up shop would have all sorts > of legal, financial, and logistical issues that we can't armchair quarterback. But anyone of us can do the research or seek out competent people to give an informed opinion. I weighed in earlier on what criteria I think are important: political tolerance (under which the legal stuff would fall), social stability, geology, climate, transportation infrastructure (or maybe I didn't mention this). Yeah, I'm not trying to run their operations from my smartphone, but I think these criteria kind of provide an outer bound for what's under consideration. Clients, potential or actual, should also have some means of judging this stuff -- to see if it's a good bet. I mean you if you are or might become a client, then you'd want to be sure they weren't messing up, so you probably should look into this stuff and not merely treat it as something only the folks running the shop would ever know or care about. Of course, one need not become an expert in everything one has dealings with. But this seems like a bigger deal than, say, buying a set of coffee mugs. :) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 20:26:33 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 13:26:33 -0700 Subject: [ExI] nursing home and non-nursing home fatalities Message-ID: <006201d695d5$a8af6d10$fa0e4730$@rainier66.com> The director of medical outcomes at Stanford has some interesting comments: https://peckford42.wordpress.com/2020/09/10/lockdown-failures/ I have been tracking the covid fatalities in Santa Clara County (Stanford is in Santa Clara Co.) The nursing home or long term care population in that county is a little under 5% of the total. Nearly half the fatalities in our county happen there: This Stanford professor is arguing that the way we did the whole shutdown is completely wrong: quarantined the healthy while exposing the vulnerable. It's compelling. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 38755 bytes Desc: not available URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 20:59:38 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 20:59:38 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 5:16 PM Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020, 4:48 AM Giulio Prisco via extropy-chat wrote: >> I have been an internet evangelist since the very very beginning, but >> I never considered the internet as a replacement for the real world. A >> very useful complement yes, but a replacement no. Not the same thing. >> I see going back to the Moon as going back to the real world. Reality, >> not videogames. > > I get your point, but you are dismissing a large chunk of humanity as "video games" > > Instead of VR, let's consider TV. It's mostly just staring blankly for hours on end, but we've > spent megabucks (mega megabucks) and millenia of person-hours on this huge waste of > attention. We can't honestly examine who/what/how we are without acknowledging that > this technology is both shaped by us and also shapes us. TV is only waste from a certain point of view. In the 19th century, reading was considered a waste by many, especially folks reading novels. There's a built-in suspicion of new stuff and also a built-in suspicion of leisure that combined against novels (which in the 19th century were the new thing in terms of have a mass readership due to lowering cost of printing and also publishing them as serials in newspapers) and later against TV (and comics and music recordings and video games and social media and now smartphones). This isn't to say it's all good, but I think one should avoid the default position that it must be bad because it's new and because it's taking people away from other things. (During the rise of novel, the other things were stuff like work, prayer, and more work.:) > I expect VR will be a logical extension of what TV has been for 50+ years, and > perhaps what technology of "books" have been since the printing press made > them available to the masses. I keep waiting for VR to take off. AR has to some extent, but not enough given the promise. I thought by now we'd all be wearing something like Google Glass and spending most of our day in VR. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From msd001 at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 21:46:16 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 17:46:16 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020, 5:02 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > I keep waiting for VR to take off. AR has to some extent, but not > enough given the promise. I thought by now we'd all be wearing > something like Google Glass and spending most of our day in VR. > If we bend the definition some, we could consider RPG and MMO games to have already taken off as VR worlds. Whether old school tile based or the much higher resolutions of Unreal or Unity, the sense of otherworldy self is suggestive enough that we can use them to reflect on Self0. If you consider how much time we spend staring into glass rectangles, we are spending considerable time in non-physical reality. Maybe that's why we don't call it Virtual Reality: we keep rolling all this tech into regular reality. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Mon Sep 28 22:24:15 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 15:24:15 -0700 Subject: [ExI] what are we seeing here? Message-ID: <009c01d695e6$1a392e20$4eab8a60$@rainier66.com> This dataset seems to be talking even louder than the British data. It seems clear enough to me there has been enough time for the new cases in August to have slain these Belgians if it was going to. But now the proles seem to be surviving covid for some reason. This is an early call, which might be wrong, but it looks like a second wave might be a lot less lethal, or a new strain has emerged, or the Belgians have gotten a lot better at treating this virus. Other views please? spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image005.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 27440 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image006.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 24679 bytes Desc: not available URL: From interzone at gmail.com Mon Sep 28 22:31:46 2020 From: interzone at gmail.com (Dylan Distasio) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 18:31:46 -0400 Subject: [ExI] what are we seeing here? In-Reply-To: <009c01d695e6$1a392e20$4eab8a60$@rainier66.com> References: <009c01d695e6$1a392e20$4eab8a60$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Belgian docs agree with you. Please read this carefully if you are interested. The other lockdown skeptic paper I sent covers the same topics. It's not likely a new strain that is less lethal. It's bad tests inflating case numbers, combined with pre-existing immunity from cross reactivity with other coronaviruses we've already been exposed to. CV-19 burned through the kindling (elderly) and rarely kills someone under 60 without serious conditions like obesity/diabetes. It's why you're seeing a disproportionate number of CV-19 deaths in the African American population in the US (NOTHING to do with racism in the health care system as some garbage, formerly prestigious publications have asserted). BTW, these crazy Belgian doctors also assert that HCQ/Azithromycin/Zinc is effective. Of course, John wouldn't be likely to take it if he was suffering from CV-19 because Trump promoted it. https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/ On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:25 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > This dataset seems to be talking even louder than the British data. > > > > It seems clear enough to me there has been enough time for the new cases > in August to have slain these Belgians if it was going to. > > > > But now the proles seem to be surviving covid for some reason. > > > > > > > > This is an early call, which might be wrong, but it looks like a second > wave might be a lot less lethal, or a new strain has emerged, or the > Belgians have gotten a lot better at treating this virus. > > > > Other views please? > > > > spike > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image005.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 27440 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image006.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 24679 bytes Desc: not available URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 00:37:40 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 00:37:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 9:48 PM Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat wrote: > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020, 5:02 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat wrote: >> >> I keep waiting for VR to take off. AR has to some extent, but not >> enough given the promise. I thought by now we'd all be wearing >> something like Google Glass and spending most of our day in VR. > > If we bend the definition some, we could consider RPG and MMO > games to have already taken off as VR worlds. Whether old school > tile based or the much higher resolutions of Unreal or Unity, the > sense of otherworldy self is suggestive enough that we can use > them to reflect on Self0. > > If you consider how much time we spend staring into glass rectangles, we > are spending considerable time in non-physical reality. Maybe that's why > we don't call it Virtual Reality: we keep rolling all this tech into regular reality. Though how different is that then earlier computer games and other interactive experiences? Yes, it's easier to carry around and the graphics is much better, but I don't feel when I'm playing these much different than watching a film or TV save for the participation. Even playing Pokemon GO, which I became quite addicted to at one point seems a far cry from the superexpensive VR games. An earlier generation thought they'd grow up into a world of flying cars and vacations on Mars. I grew up thinking VR would be like The Matrix films. (And that strong nanotech and GAI would be here by now and maybe even the first people would be being revived or uploaded from cryonics storage.) Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From sen.otaku at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 00:51:31 2020 From: sen.otaku at gmail.com (SR Ballard) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 20:51:31 -0400 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <9AA3D6FD-166C-4541-94BF-FD718D69D9E3@gmail.com> I just think we could have a non-transitioned pod, just like other categories of offenders, like chomos, death row, etc get their own pods... problem solved. From msd001 at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 01:03:50 2020 From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 21:03:50 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Mon, Sep 28, 2020, 8:39 PM Dan TheBookMan via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Though how different is that then earlier computer games and other > interactive experiences? Yes, it's easier to carry around and the > graphics is much better, but I don't feel when I'm playing these much > different than watching a film or TV save for the participation. Even > playing Pokemon GO, which I became quite addicted to at one point > seems a far cry from the superexpensive VR games. An earlier > generation thought they'd grow up into a world of flying cars and > vacations on Mars. I grew up thinking VR would be like The Matrix > films. (And that strong nanotech and GAI would be here by now and > maybe even the first people would be being revived or uploaded from > cryonics storage.) > Not much different. If your survivalist tribe was lucky enough to score an animal you couldn't devour in a single meal, the fireside conversation was either reminiscing about the recent and past victories or planning the next success. I make the case we're rarely in the moment, even when it's a good moment. Spike frequently reminds us that modern times has more good moments than most of history... but he has to remind us frequently because modern time is so bountiful with distractions. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 01:46:52 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 18:46:52 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <015101d69602$681891f0$3849b5d0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat >?Spike frequently reminds us that modern times has more good moments than most of history... but he has to remind us frequently because modern time is so bountiful with distractions? Mike Dougherty Hi Mike, Ja, and of all cool things: a notion I have had for a long time is that the dark matter (or some of it) may be small-ish black holes that formed very early in history, a few hundred thousand years after the big bang. I do confess I don?t understand how that can happen, but if I suggest that they just did somehow form, very early then they would be far enough back there to account for what still looks to me like missing matter. If they were small-ish black holes and we ignore for now that we can?t explain how those formed, then they wouldn?t be big lensers and wouldn?t even be easily detectable. I hear that theory is enjoying a revival. Cool! Regarding thinking we would have flying cars by now: well, we do. We have had flying cars since the 1950s, helicopters. When I was a teenager thinking about the future of flying cars, it occurred to me that no matter what, we are not going to repeal Newton?s third law, not now not later: there is going to be a reaction, and it will create a lot of breeze, kick up a lot of dust, guzzle a lot of fuel, just as they always have since the 1950s. If we manage to make the rotors smaller, then they hafta be even more violent. They would create a miniature hurricane. That isn?t going to change, not now, not later. So, cheer up: we have flying cars now. If you get in a bad accident on the freeway, you might be hauled to the medics in one of them. Vacations on Mars: no. Since a long time ago, we knew there is no practical shortcut to interplanetary travel. Walter Hohmann really wasn?t kidding: there are no practical shortcuts. Any trip to Mars would be one hell of a long vacation: unlikely less than a year and a half, assuming you don?t mess around down there very long. I?ll take a nice sea voyage to Hawaii please, get back before squatters have moved into my house. Truly this is a most glorious time to be alive. Consider the ancient vision of heaven. It wasn?t floating around forever on clouds singing hymns and strumming harps. Their vision of heaven was a time and place where babies don?t die and people live to be older than 100 years, where people build houses and are not driven out of them, raiders don?t come and eat the crops they planted. Isaiah ch 65: >?There shall be no more thence an infant of days, nor an old man that hath not filled his days: for the child shall die an hundred years old; but the sinner being an hundred years old shall be accursed. And they shall build houses, and inhabit them; and they shall plant vineyards, and eat the fruit of them. They shall not build, and another inhabit; they shall not plant, and another eat: for as the days of a tree are the days of my people, and mine elect shall long enjoy the work of their hands? When you think it over, we aren?t that dang far from that now: infant mortality still happens, but we manage to save most, nearly all of them, and now people generally live into their 80s or so, plenty of them beyond. I talked to an old friend yesterday who is 88, he sounds good still. A bit slower than he used to be, but otherwise sound. OK then? Flying cars, check. Cool cosmology, check. Less burying our children, generally fewer funerals than before, getting a lot like ancient writers vision of heaven, check. So? why not celebrate and thank evolution? One explanation: marketing. There are so many who make their living convincing us that we don?t really have it made until we buy their silly product or elect their candidate. But regardless of their breezy nonsense, we have it made anyway. So? recognize it and embrace it. Celebrate humanity?s success. Feel gratitude for having been born this late in history. Be happy, celebrate being alive in this glorious time, feel the powerful emotion of gratitude to those who went before us and made all this possible. They suffered, now we don?t need to. Be happy and be thankful. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 04:00:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2020 21:00:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] but only on really hot days Message-ID: <004001d69615$05d36cf0$117a46d0$@rainier66.com> Those Teslas have an AC which works with the car sitting still in the garage. So if the electricity goes out and you have a full charge (or a good-sized generator) you can go out there and get inside it, stay cool. You can even sleep in the car: my neighbor did a few nights ago, said it kept running all night. This article is a bit of an overstatement. The electric grid will still work: https://babylonbee.com/news/state-with-no-electricity-orders-everyone-to-dri ve-cars-that-run-on-electricity Just not on really hot days. But that is because shutting it down (as it was today for several hours) reduces fire risk. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 05:24:40 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 05:24:40 +0000 Subject: [ExI] oh hey, why didn't we do this sooner... In-Reply-To: <9AA3D6FD-166C-4541-94BF-FD718D69D9E3@gmail.com> References: <003701d69516$e67b55b0$b3720110$@rainier66.com> <004f01d69541$dd656170$98302450$@rainier66.com> <9AA3D6FD-166C-4541-94BF-FD718D69D9E3@gmail.com> Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 12:53 AM SR Ballard via extropy-chat wrote: > I just think we could have a non-transitioned pod, just like other > categories of offenders, like chomos, death row, etc get their own > pods... problem solved. If you're serious and I'm understanding you correctly, wouldn't that amount to torture? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From danust2012 at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 06:09:56 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 06:09:56 +0000 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: <000001d695c7$8fa4c8a0$aeee59e0$@rainier66.com> References: <000001d695c7$8fa4c8a0$aeee59e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: By the way, I see SpaceX has another Crew Dragon flight scheduled for late next month. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Dragon_C207 The launch date moved since that page was last updated. Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From johnkclark at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 11:14:25 2020 From: johnkclark at gmail.com (John Clark) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 07:14:25 -0400 Subject: [ExI] Extropolis Message-ID: A new Google group has been formed called "Extropolis" and through an odd chain of circumstances I somehow ended up being a list owner. Controversy would be fine, any topic would be allowed, even non-controversial politically correct ones. I expect a lot of vigorous debate may occur that results in some metaphorical blood being shed and that's OK, although outright cannibalism would be frowned upon. The group has only 2 rules, don't be boring and don't be stupid. Extropolis John K Clark -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 15:27:29 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 16:27:29 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested Message-ID: Jet suit paramedic tested in the Lake District 'could save lives' Quote: A jet suit for paramedics which would see patients reached in minutes by a "flying" medic has been tested by the Great North Air Ambulance Service. Andy Mawson, director of operations at GNAAS, came up with the idea and described seeing it as "awesome". He said it meant a paramedic could "fly" to a fell top in 90 seconds rather than taking 30 minutes on foot. ------------------ There is video of the test flight. Impressive! BillK From bronto at pobox.com Tue Sep 29 15:43:49 2020 From: bronto at pobox.com (Anton Sherwood) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 08:43:49 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Spaceflight: The only valid case for waiting In-Reply-To: <015101d69602$681891f0$3849b5d0$@rainier66.com> References: <015101d69602$681891f0$3849b5d0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <3b94bf73-a2ed-594a-4573-7560dd8139f2@pobox.com> On 2020-9-28 18:46, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > Ja, and of all cool things: a notion I have had for a long time is that > the dark matter (or some of it) may be small-ish black holes that formed > very early in history, a few hundred thousand years after the big bang. > I do confess I don?t understand how that can happen, but if I suggest > that they just did somehow form, very early then they would be far > enough back there to account for what still looks to me like missing > matter.? If they were small-ish black holes and we ignore for now that > we can?t explain how those formed, then they wouldn?t be big lensers and > wouldn?t even be easily detectable.? I hear that theory is enjoying a > revival.? Cool! Larry Niven's story "The Borderlands of Sol" supposes that the Tunguska object was a primordial black hole, formed in the turbulence of the Big Bang. But last I heard, it's believed that such tiny BH, if they existed, evaporated by Hawking radiation long ago. -- *\\* Anton Sherwood *\\* www.bendwavy.org From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 15:52:23 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 08:52:23 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> -----Original Message----- From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat >...Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested Jet suit paramedic tested in the Lake District 'could save lives' Quote: A jet suit for paramedics which would see patients reached in minutes by a "flying" medic ...BillK _______________________________________________ Thanks BillK, Sure there is the lifesaving angle to it, but think of the sports and profit angle: customers would pay a coupla hundred for a flight, proles could bet on the probability that the customer lands without injury or fatality, or if they should fail, then the parameds could fly to the customer, administer last rites, that sorta thing. This is a really cool idea. These sorts of notions are always inherently limited by short range, such as we saw in the first public jet pack demonstration which was at a football game back in the 1960s: the pilot took off from the parking lot, flew over the fans and landed on the 50. It did not become a standard halftime show stunt. Guessing they are still using catalyzed hydrogen peroxide, which will limit the notion to about 30 seconds of flight, assuming the pilot wants to walk with the thing afterwards. spike From dsunley at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 15:54:06 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 09:54:06 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: It took some digging to find out, but they're about $450,000 to purchase, and have a maximum flight time of about 10 minutes. Their test pilot took one of the things up to 12,000 feet one time, but that's not really their intended use. Also, they're apparently harder to fly than they look, but the company provides training and vetting before they allow you to purchase anyways. On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 9:29 AM BillK via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Jet suit paramedic tested in the Lake District 'could save lives' > > > > Quote: > A jet suit for paramedics which would see patients reached in minutes > by a "flying" medic has been tested by the Great North Air Ambulance > Service. > Andy Mawson, director of operations at GNAAS, came up with the idea > and described seeing it as "awesome". > He said it meant a paramedic could "fly" to a fell top in 90 seconds > rather than taking 30 minutes on foot. > ------------------ > There is video of the test flight. Impressive! > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 15:55:50 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 09:55:50 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> References: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: I'm no engineer, but just by eyeball, the energy density required to fit 10 minutes of flight time into a backpack that size is... concerning. On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 9:53 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > -----Original Message----- > From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of > BillK via extropy-chat > >...Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested > > Jet suit paramedic tested in the Lake District 'could save lives' > > > > Quote: > A jet suit for paramedics which would see patients reached in minutes by a > "flying" medic ...BillK > _______________________________________________ > > > Thanks BillK, > > Sure there is the lifesaving angle to it, but think of the sports and > profit > angle: customers would pay a coupla hundred for a flight, proles could bet > on the probability that the customer lands without injury or fatality, or > if > they should fail, then the parameds could fly to the customer, administer > last rites, that sorta thing. > > This is a really cool idea. These sorts of notions are always inherently > limited by short range, such as we saw in the first public jet pack > demonstration which was at a football game back in the 1960s: the pilot > took > off from the parking lot, flew over the fans and landed on the 50. It did > not become a standard halftime show stunt. > > Guessing they are still using catalyzed hydrogen peroxide, which will limit > the notion to about 30 seconds of flight, assuming the pilot wants to walk > with the thing afterwards. > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From pharos at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 16:12:55 2020 From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 17:12:55 +0100 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> References: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Tue, 29 Sep 2020 at 16:54, spike jones via extropy-chat wrote: > > Sure there is the lifesaving angle to it, but think of the sports and profit > angle: customers would pay a coupla hundred for a flight, proles could bet > on the probability that the customer lands without injury or fatality, or if > they should fail, then the parameds could fly to the customer, administer > last rites, that sorta thing. > > This is a really cool idea. These sorts of notions are always inherently > limited by short range, such as we saw in the first public jet pack > demonstration which was at a football game back in the 1960s: the pilot took > off from the parking lot, flew over the fans and landed on the 50. It did > not become a standard halftime show stunt. > > Guessing they are still using catalyzed hydrogen peroxide, which will limit > the notion to about 30 seconds of flight, assuming the pilot wants to walk > with the thing afterwards. > > spike > _______________________________________________ They have big plans for these jet suits. The Jet Suit Power; 1050bhp Turbines; 5 RPM; 120,000 Fuel; Jet A1 or Diesel Dry weight; 27kg Flight time; 5-10 minutes Current speed record; 136.891 kph ------------------ They appear to have training schemes and hire available for test flights. BillK From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 16:47:21 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 09:47:21 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: References: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00b301d69680$3381e760$9a85b620$@rainier66.com> ?> On Behalf Of Darin Sunley via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested >?I'm no engineer, but just by eyeball, the energy density required to fit 10 minutes of flight time into a backpack that size is... concerning? Hi Darin, I saw that too. If that rig is really flying that long, that exhaust hasta be really really hot coming out of those nozzles, which introduces several new challenges. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 16:52:08 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 09:52:08 -0700 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: References: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <00c401d69680$deca2ba0$9c5e82e0$@rainier66.com> > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > _______________________________________________ They have big plans for these jet suits. The Jet Suit Power; 1050bhp Turbines; 5 RPM; 120,000 Fuel; Jet A1 or Diesel Dry weight; 27kg Flight time; 5-10 minutes Current speed record; 136.891 kph ------------------ They appear to have training schemes and hire available for test flights. BillK _______________________________________________ TURBINES! Ok then, you can count me out, thanks: this is madness. That would explain how they are getting ten minutes of flight out of this without cooking themselves, but oh dear, four turbines spinning at that speed, mercy. spike From henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 17:25:57 2020 From: henrik.ohrstrom at gmail.com (Henrik Ohrstrom) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 19:25:57 +0200 Subject: [ExI] what are we seeing here? In-Reply-To: References: <009c01d695e6$1a392e20$4eab8a60$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: General mortality for equivalent patients has gone down a lot as time goes due to lessons learned in the health system. Also, when you don't have more really sick patients than you have Ecmo beds, the excuse for having a patient die really is gone. There are a "Sensitivo omnibus mortuus est" effect. Visible in a general reduction of all kinds of mortality and morbidity at the moment as of now. Infection rates are difficult to interpret at the moment. Really the hard outcomes in hospitalised and dead are the only real data. There are as far as I know no second waves anywhere in areas that was hit hard in the spring. Suscipit tempora temporum novorum, no-one said before, Google translate ftw :) /Henrik Den tis 29 sep. 2020 00:34Dylan Distasio via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> skrev: > Belgian docs agree with you. Please read this carefully if you are > interested. The other lockdown skeptic paper I sent covers the same > topics. It's not likely a new strain that is less lethal. It's bad > tests inflating case numbers, combined with pre-existing immunity from > cross reactivity with other coronaviruses we've already been exposed to. > CV-19 burned through the kindling (elderly) and rarely kills someone under > 60 without serious conditions like obesity/diabetes. It's why you're > seeing a disproportionate number of CV-19 deaths in the African American > population in the US (NOTHING to do with racism in the health care system > as some garbage, formerly prestigious publications have asserted). > > BTW, these crazy Belgian doctors also assert that HCQ/Azithromycin/Zinc is > effective. Of course, John wouldn't be likely to take it if he was > suffering from CV-19 because Trump promoted it. > > https://docs4opendebate.be/en/open-letter/ > > On Mon, Sep 28, 2020 at 6:25 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > >> >> >> This dataset seems to be talking even louder than the British data. >> >> >> >> It seems clear enough to me there has been enough time for the new cases >> in August to have slain these Belgians if it was going to. >> >> >> >> But now the proles seem to be surviving covid for some reason. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> This is an early call, which might be wrong, but it looks like a second >> wave might be a lot less lethal, or a new strain has emerged, or the >> Belgians have gotten a lot better at treating this virus. >> >> >> >> Other views please? >> >> >> >> spike >> _______________________________________________ >> extropy-chat mailing list >> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org >> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat >> > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image005.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 27440 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image006.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 24679 bytes Desc: not available URL: From dsunley at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 17:33:24 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 11:33:24 -0600 Subject: [ExI] Jet suit paramedic tested In-Reply-To: <00c401d69680$deca2ba0$9c5e82e0$@rainier66.com> References: <006d01d69678$86731820$93594860$@rainier66.com> <00c401d69680$deca2ba0$9c5e82e0$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: Yeah, if one of those blades lets go during flight the pilot may want, as Dumbledore put it, "to retire in order to spend more time with his remaining limbs". On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 10:56 AM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > > > On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat > > > _______________________________________________ > > > They have big plans for these jet suits. > > > The Jet Suit > > Power; 1050bhp > Turbines; 5 > RPM; 120,000 > Fuel; Jet A1 or Diesel > Dry weight; 27kg > Flight time; 5-10 minutes > Current speed record; 136.891 kph > ------------------ > > They appear to have training schemes and hire available for test flights. > > BillK > _______________________________________________ > > > > TURBINES! > > Ok then, you can count me out, thanks: this is madness. > > That would explain how they are getting ten minutes of flight out of this > without cooking themselves, but oh dear, four turbines spinning at that > speed, mercy. > > spike > > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From hibbard at wisc.edu Tue Sep 29 20:16:24 2020 From: hibbard at wisc.edu (Bill Hibbard) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 15:16:24 -0500 (CDT) Subject: [ExI] tonight Message-ID: Sorry for injecting politics but I just heard from a reliable source that when Trump and Biden first come out on stage tonight, they will open by doing the "Who's on First" routine. From dsunley at gmail.com Tue Sep 29 21:03:41 2020 From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 15:03:41 -0600 Subject: [ExI] tonight In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I would honestly pay good money to see that. :) I would also pay good money to see both parties pass a bipartisan resolution in both Houses, signed by the President, that the control of either party of either or both Houses and/or the White House would not constute an existential threat to either of their bases or the country as a whole, but I fear the "Who's on First?" Thing is /entirely/ more likely. On Tue, Sep 29, 2020, 2:18 PM Bill Hibbard via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > Sorry for injecting politics but I just heard from a > reliable source that when Trump and Biden first come > out on stage tonight, they will open by doing the > "Who's on First" routine. > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Tue Sep 29 21:20:37 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2020 14:20:37 -0700 Subject: [ExI] tonight In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <00b001d696a6$60cf6370$226e2a50$@rainier66.com> From: extropy-chat On Behalf Of Darin Sunley via extropy-chat Subject: Re: [ExI] tonight >?I would honestly pay good money to see that. :) Never happen Darin. Even modern comedian duos don?t even try to tackle Who?s on First: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sShMA85pv8M That took raw talent to pull that off. >?I would also pay good money to see both parties? Both? There are more than two parties in the USA. >? would not constute an existential threat to either of their bases or the country as a whole? We have certainly gotten ourselves into a lot of hyperventilating over this recently. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 05:05:55 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 05:05:55 +0000 Subject: [ExI] tonight In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 8:18 PM Bill Hibbard via extropy-chat wrote: > Sorry for injecting politics but I just heard from a > reliable source that when Trump and Biden first come > out on stage tonight, they will open by doing the > "Who's on First" routine. And this parrot should be the moderator: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/swearing-parrots-moved-park-scli-gbr-intl/index.html Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst From giulio at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 05:51:06 2020 From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 07:51:06 +0200 Subject: [ExI] Extropolis In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: I see that some have already joined the new list. If you want, you can request to join here: https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis/ To me, the new list is not limited to politics but open to all topics of common interest. I hope to recapture some of the radical and intense spirit of the early extropians list, and to persuade some former members of the extropians list to join. On Tue, Sep 29, 2020 at 1:16 PM John Clark via extropy-chat wrote: > > A new Google group has been formed called "Extropolis" and through an odd chain of circumstances I somehow ended up being a list owner. Controversy would be fine, any topic would be allowed, even non-controversial politically correct ones. I expect a lot of vigorous debate may occur that results in some metaphorical blood being shed and that's OK, although outright cannibalism would be frowned upon. The group has only 2 rules, don't be boring and don't be stupid. > > Extropolis > > John K Clark > _______________________________________________ > extropy-chat mailing list > extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org > http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 13:00:33 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 21:00:33 +0800 Subject: [ExI] First Compelling Evidence of Organisms That Eat Viruses as a Food Source Message-ID: I always wondered about this... I look forward to further results from these investigations... Humanity must harness their hunger... https://www.sciencealert.com/first-compelling-evidence-of-organisms-that-actually-eat-viruses-as-a-food-source -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 13:23:56 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 21:23:56 +0800 Subject: [ExI] We Finally Know How Much Radiation There Is on The Moon, And It's Not Great News Message-ID: "The radiation of the Moon is between two and three times higher than what you have on the ISS (International Space Station)," co-author Robert Wimmer-Schweingruber, an astrophysicist at the University of Kiel told AFP. "So that limits your stay to approximately two months on the surface of the Moon," he added, once the radiation exposure from the roughly week-long journey there, and week back, is taken into account." https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-predict-how-long-humans-can-survive-radiation-on-the-moon -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 14:10:52 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 22:10:52 +0800 Subject: [ExI] Astronomers Just Revealed One of The Most Extreme Planets Ever Discovered Message-ID: "While the exoplanet, named WASP-189b , is not quite as hot as the surface of our Sun (6,000 degrees Celsius or 10,832 degrees Fahrenheit), it's basically as toasty as some small dwarf stars. The new findings immediately identify WASP-189b as one of the most extreme planets ever discovered. It has an orbit of just 2.7 days around its star, with one side seeing a permanent 'day' and the other side seeing a permanent 'night'. It's gigantic, too ? about 1.6 times the size of Jupiter." https://www.sciencealert.com/astronomers-just-got-a-closer-look-at-one-of-the-most-extreme-planets-ever-found -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 14:44:59 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 22:44:59 +0800 Subject: [ExI] We're Headed For a Class-Based 'Climate Apartheid', Warns Chilling New UN Report Message-ID: "In a blistering new report being presented to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this week, Alston warns hundreds of millions of people will face food insecurity, forced migration, disease, and death this century ? and even in the short term the mounting crises will be devastating in effect. "It could push more than 120 million more people into poverty by 2030," Alston says . "Climate change threatens to undo the last 50 years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction." The biggest risk, the report explains, is to the world's poor; people from nations who are the least responsible for the consequences of carbon pollution, but who will feel its most severe impacts." https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-millions-at-risk-of-devastating-climate-apartheid-un-expert-warns -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 14:53:58 2020 From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 22:53:58 +0800 Subject: [ExI] This Gigantic Sailboat Design Could Use Wind Power to Transport 7, 000 Cars Message-ID: "Emissions from the cheap fossil fuels used in the shipping industry are thought to be responsible for around 2 percent of energy-related carbon emissions across the world ? and the total amount continues to rise. Now, researchers at a shipping company have designed a new type of cargo vessel that will be able to ship large amounts of merchandise while running entirely on wind power, cutting 90 percent of the typical shipping emissions along the way. It's being called the OceanBird. And this wouldn't be a scaled-down, lightweight cargo ship either ? according to the projections of the company behind the design, Wallenius Marine, OceanBird would be capable of ferrying 7,000 cars across the Atlantic." As a teenager, I came across a futurist book that had an artist's conception of this type of ship on the cover. The writer had an enthusiasm for the possibilities of the future that I found utterly captivating. It drives me crazy that I can't remember the author or the book title! Argh! https://www.sciencealert.com/this-gigantic-high-tech-sailboat-uses-the-power-of-the-wind-to-transport-7-000-cars -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: oceanb-1_1024.webp Type: image/webp Size: 63950 bytes Desc: not available URL: From foozler83 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 16:25:32 2020 From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 11:25:32 -0500 Subject: [ExI] a little fun Message-ID: Today's Pearls Before Swine: rat - climbing up mountain: "O great Wise ASS, how have you managed to keep it together so well with all that's going on? The virus, the economy, the chaos. Wise Ass - I'm just very, very drunk Rat - He's wiser than I thought. bill w -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From danust2012 at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 17:48:09 2020 From: danust2012 at gmail.com (Dan TheBookMan) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 17:48:09 +0000 Subject: [ExI] We Finally Know How Much Radiation There Is on The Moon, And It's Not Great News In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 30, 2020 at 1:21 PM John Grigg via extropy-chat wrote: > "The radiation of the Moon is between two and three times higher than > what you have on the ISS (International Space Station)," co-author > Robert Wimmer-Schweingruber, an astrophysicist at the University of > Kiel told AFP. > > "So that limits your stay to approximately two months on the surface of > the Moon," he added, once the radiation exposure from the roughly > week-long journey there, and week back, is taken into account." > > https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-predict-how-long-humans-can-survive-radiation-on-the-moon Chang'e 4 landed on the lunar farside, which has higher radiation than the nearside because Earth isn't between it and many of the sources of radiation. Think of how the farside gets a walloping dosing from the Sun at noon that the nearside would because the latter would have the Earth's magnitude field between it and the Sun even when there's no eclipse. (It's also slightly farther from the Sun, on average at lunar noon.) That said, human long-term habitation would all involve shielding, no? I think all serious proponents of lunar bases know this. And such projects as I've seen almost always involve burying part or all of the habitats under a meter or more of lunar regolith.* So this would seem to be an engineering problem rather than an insurmountable obstacle, no? Regards, Dan Sample my Kindle books via: http://author.to/DanUst * Of course, one would have to have good measurements of how radioactive the lunar regolith is and what lunar subsurface radiation is like. If it's like Earth, then it's probably low and acceptable overall. Still, with stuff like CREEP, it probably demands choosing habitat sites wisely. That is, if one is using local materials for habitat protection. From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 30 21:26:41 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 14:26:41 -0700 Subject: [ExI] that's harsh Message-ID: <000c01d69770$63fe4d70$2bfae850$@rainier66.com> -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 59129 bytes Desc: not available URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 30 23:12:50 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 16:12:50 -0700 Subject: [ExI] glass fire Message-ID: <003601d6977f$384009d0$a8c01d70$@rainier66.com> OK so. California is burning, again. I have friends in Angwin CA, who may be coming down to stay with me for a few days. There may be things I just don't understand about how wildfire works, but it sure seems to me that one could install an underground reservoir with a few thousand gallons of water and a simple gasoline powered pump. Water is nearly incompressible, so it doesn't take very much at all to pressurize it to 5 or 10 atm. With a converging nozzle, you have a lot of range. Water is remarkably effective in stopping fire: a little goes a long ways really. It seems like high-value structures, such as historic wooden homes and wineries and stuff could be saved by putting the right roofs on them and keeping them wet during the event. Pumps could be automated, triggered by heat sensors. Converging nozzles that operate under high pressure could fire a stream of water a good distance. An alpha theta two-axis actuator could ire bursts at hotspots on a roof. Such things as that look to me like they could protect valuables stuff from burning, even as the forest around it does burn. This sounds like a good automation controls problem: it would use some fairly straightforward software, a feedback system of sorts, possibly a shoot-look-shoot system, since water is cheap enough to use as much as you need. A lotta places up there in wine country have pools, or possibly even hot tubs would help. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From atymes at gmail.com Wed Sep 30 23:35:19 2020 From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 16:35:19 -0700 Subject: [ExI] glass fire In-Reply-To: <003601d6977f$384009d0$a8c01d70$@rainier66.com> References: <003601d6977f$384009d0$a8c01d70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: On Wed, Sep 30, 2020, 4:14 PM spike jones via extropy-chat < extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote: > With a converging nozzle, you have a lot of range. > I think this is the disconnect. Calculate the range, and thus the area covered per installation - even ignoring all those buildings and/or trees in the way, which reduce the area. Compare to the area of, say, Napa County - assuming you wished to protect a large area, rather than just one winery. Maybe just the non-wilderness area. > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From spike at rainier66.com Wed Sep 30 23:43:43 2020 From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com) Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2020 16:43:43 -0700 Subject: [ExI] glass fire In-Reply-To: References: <003601d6977f$384009d0$a8c01d70$@rainier66.com> Message-ID: <005901d69783$886c7ed0$99457c70$@rainier66.com> From: Adrian Tymes Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2020 4:35 PM To: ExI chat list Cc: spike Subject: Re: [ExI] glass fire On Wed, Sep 30, 2020, 4:14 PM spike jones via extropy-chat > wrote: With a converging nozzle, you have a lot of range. >?I think this is the disconnect. Calculate the range, and thus the area covered per installation - even ignoring all those buildings and/or trees in the way, which reduce the area. >?Compare to the area of, say, Napa County - assuming you wished to protect a large area, rather than just one winery. Maybe just the non-wilderness area? Ja, the strategy is to protect just the structures but let the forest burn. It would be all about the structures, and not even all of those: just the ones worth a few thousand bucks to eliminate the 50-year fire risk. It could be there just aren?t that many structures worth a few k to protect. spike -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: