[ExI] india, owwwww dang

Stathis Papaioannou stathisp at gmail.com
Tue Apr 20 16:30:30 UTC 2021


On Wed, 21 Apr 2021 at 01:05, JF via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> My favorite statistics statement, "*Compared to what?*"
>
> I feel like there's what, 1.8B people there, and no chance at any form of
> testing. The moment they do any testing, it's going to show a spike.
>
> I'm somewhat optimistic because Covaxin looks like a really good vaccine,
> and they don't have to negotiate with other countries who want to hoard
> supply. They seem like they're well on the path to being able to control
> the virus, but I wouldn't be surprised if they have a large number of
> deaths that on paper look bad, but on a per-capita basis look totally
> normal.
>
> The US had around 30M cases, 500K deaths, with an estimated population of
> 300M people. India has 1.8B people so 100M cases and 300M deaths probably
> is a low end "good" estimate. I'd probably go higher due to the
> multiplicative nature of virus spread and higher population density.
>
> If we could get a reasonable prediction market on this with reliable data
> sources, I'd probably go long 300M deaths. India's just that dense.
>

I think your numbers are off. India has 1.4 billion people. If they matched
the US, they would have 140 million cases and 2,300,000 deaths.


> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
> On Monday, April 19, 2021 11:15 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>
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>
> I was away from this for a week of camping so it came as a shock this
> afternoon when I started looking at numbers.
>
>
>
> The covid world new case rate hit an all-time record high, and India
> accounts for over a third of the new cases in the world:
>
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> We have a lot of Indian friends with their families back in the old
> country.  They are most disturbed by all this.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
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-- 
Stathis Papaioannou
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