[ExI] those who are going to, did already

[spike at rainier66.com]

The covid pandemic was different than most in that the fatalities were
concentrated in the elderly and people with a lot of other health problems,
as opposed to something like the plague, which took people without regard to
previous state of health.  The plague would leave behind a smaller
population whose overall health was about the same as before.  But the covid
pandemic can be seen to have left a surviving smaller population whose
overall health is better and average age is younger.

 

Do check my reasoning on that last conjecture.

 

The CDC has a remarkable data site which illustrates what I think we are
seeing.  Here's the data from the past four years:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

 



 

Zooming in, notice what has been happening recently:

 



 

 

As the vaccine drives the population toward herd immunity, the blue bars
will go away, but the real signal catching my attention is how far below the
orange (average) line are the green bars.  They are below the average
mortality by a huge margin for the past several weeks.  We can ignore the
data from about the last coupla weeks because it takes a while to get all
the reports processed, but even if we ignore those, the average mortality is
down.

 

During the pandemic, we know there were plenty of suicides, perhaps because
of despondency over a failed business.  I lost a young second cousin that
way.  But at some point, most of those who are susceptible to suicide have
done it already, leaving fewer suicidal people in the general population.

 

Does not this chart illustrate that covid left behind a younger healthier
population?

 

spike

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