[ExI] Fermi paradox

[Stuart LaForge]

Quoting BillK:

> That's one of the big questions generated by the Fermi Paradox silence.
> Is the Great Filter behind us or still waiting to hit us in the future?
> The rarity of life developing could be the big early Filter.
> Intelligent life destroying itself because the Evolution necessary for
> development leads to destruction could be the late Filter.
>

An alternative hypothesis would be that we live in a galactic  
Goldilocks zone and that our nearest stellar neighbors are the ones  
most likely to harbor life.

The Bayesian in me wonders if the SETI detection of a radio signal  
from Proxima Centauri, a mere 4 LY away from earth, and the sudden  
seriousness of the government and the military about UAP and public  
disclosure of previously classified video.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep29692?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents

https://www.seti.org/signal-proxima-centauri

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a35904670/pentagon-ufo-reports-objects-breaking-sound-barrier-without-sonic-boom/

I mean taken separately, they are easy to dismiss but taken together  
having occurred within a few months of eac other? Inquiring minds want  
to know what you think appropriate priors would be for this  
application of Bayes law?

Stuart LaForge