From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Aug  1 17:15:43 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 12:15:43 -0500
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>

Ran across this:  "A wavy brick wall takes fewer bricks than a straight
one."  Dunno if that is true.  You?  bill w
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From steinberg.will at gmail.com  Mon Aug  1 17:40:27 2022
From: steinberg.will at gmail.com (Will Steinberg)
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 13:40:27 -0400
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAKrqSyHJmc5faV0isKjnekiSTRkVScS0yaszOxZUM0JNjpjQQw@mail.gmail.com>

It doesn't really make sense in a vacuum, it's because a *freestanding*
straight brick wall needs multiple layers while a wavy one can stand on its
own with just a single layer.  These days I think most people would imagine
a brick wall as part of a house, so the topic in question is confusing in
that conception

On Mon, Aug 1, 2022, 1:17 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Ran across this:  "A wavy brick wall takes fewer bricks than a straight
> one."  Dunno if that is true.  You?  bill w
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  1 18:50:07 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 11:50:07 -0700
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <CAKrqSyHJmc5faV0isKjnekiSTRkVScS0yaszOxZUM0JNjpjQQw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyHJmc5faV0isKjnekiSTRkVScS0yaszOxZUM0JNjpjQQw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00de01d8a5d7$85c520b0$914f6210$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of Will Steinberg via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] puzzle?

 

 

 

On Mon, Aug 1, 2022, 1:17 PM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

>>?Ran across this:  "A wavy brick wall takes fewer bricks than a straight one."  Dunno if that is true.  You?  bill w

 

 

>?It doesn't really make sense in a vacuum, it's because a *freestanding* straight brick wall needs multiple layers while a wavy one can stand on its own with just a single layer.  These days I think most people would imagine a brick wall as part of a house, so the topic in question is confusing in that conception

 

_______________________________________________



 

Ja, what Will said.

 

Being a mechanical engineer, I was going to offer the example of corrugated aluminum (for roofing.)  The corrugations allow a panel to be thinner and lighter than a non-corrugated sheet and still meet the strength requirement.  So that would be the example offered by a prole (me) who is more comfortable with isotropic materials such as metals, rather than bricks which are highly anisotropic (bricks are hell-for strong in compression, not so much in bending moment stress.)

 



 

Knowing the principle of the wavy brick wall, this is a retaining wall I built in my back yard about 25 yrs ago.  I hadn?t thought of it as a wave, but rather as an integral sign.  The region to the left of the wall is soil about 2 ft higher than the sidewalk, grassy area on the right is a golden ratio ellipse, so the wall is an integral sign with the grass golden ellipse as the upper limit of integration.

 

We math geeks build stuff like this.

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Aug  1 18:56:00 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 11:56:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNRcJSxP+AVw_YX5KJXQspdnkZcmUmy86NVee0NbeqSnhw@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, Aug 1, 2022 at 10:17 AM William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Ran across this:  "A wavy brick wall takes fewer bricks than a straight
> one."  Dunno if that is true.  You?
>

A single brick can make a wall, if it is big enough to fill the desired
wall dimensions.  One might even imagine 3D printing said large enough
brick with a mobile kiln, that heats up portions of clay in a stream that
only breaks at the start and end of said wall.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  1 19:17:12 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 12:17:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <00de01d8a5d7$85c520b0$914f6210$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyHJmc5faV0isKjnekiSTRkVScS0yaszOxZUM0JNjpjQQw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00de01d8a5d7$85c520b0$914f6210$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <012001d8a5db$4e464ac0$ead2e040$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
?

 

 

>? grassy area on the right is a golden ratio ellipse?

 

>?We math geeks build stuff like this? spike

 

 



 

 

Billw, since you are burning with curiosity about golden ratio ellipses (or if not, you are the kind of gentlemanly sort to play along politely) this is the front yard of me ?umble abode.

 

The five steps down are golden ratio ellipses with a minor radius of 1 meter.  The major radius of those steps ((1+5^.5)/2) meters, is the minor radius of the tan bark region to the left of the steps.  The major radius of that ellipse is the minor radius of the back yard grassy ellipse, and the major radius of the grassy ellipse is the minor radius of the ellipse toward the left side forward quadrant of the photo.  

 

It isn?t clear from this photo, but the inflection point between the tangent ellipses was placed right were the first derivative on each of the ellipses was equal, so it is a continuous first derivative over the transition from one ellipse to the other.

 

But wait, there?s more.  I had more time on my hands then, being in my 30s, pre-child, part-time job only.  I worked a 9 to 5 at Lockheed Martin but 40 hrs a week is considered a part time job by Silicon Valley standards.  I had to figure out a way to generate the ellipses in order to build the form walls for the cement.  So? I used surveying tools to figure out exactly where to drive the focus stakes on which I attached the cable to generate the ellipses.

 

This yard is a puzzling blend of Greek and Zen, with lotsa math geek chic holding it all together.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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From jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com  Tue Aug  2 03:14:47 2022
From: jose_cordeiro at yahoo.com (Jose Cordeiro)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 03:14:47 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?b?V2VsY29tZSB0byB0aGUgbmV4dCAj8J2Xp/Cdl7/wnZeu7aC1?=
 =?utf-8?b?7be78J2YgPCdl6nwnZe28J2YgPCdl7bwnZe88J2Xu/Cdl6DwnZeu8J2XsQ==?=
 =?utf-8?b?8J2Xv/Cdl7bwnZexIGR1cmluZyBOb3ZlbWJlciAyMDIyLCBzY2hlZHVsZSB0?=
 =?utf-8?q?he_dates_NOW?=
References: <129374585.5168923.1659410087237.ref@mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <129374585.5168923.1659410087237@mail.yahoo.com>

Dear Cryonics friends,

? ? ?How are you doing? Everything going well? We are very excited about our initial Cryonics First Response (CFR) training next November in Spain!?Will you be able to come to Madrid during the Fall? Hopefully so, you can?t miss this great event combinig both theory and practice!
? ? ?Could you kindly share the invitation below about #TransVision 2022, focused on human cryopreservation, among your cryonics contacts in your country, and elsewhere around the world, including other groups who might be interested to come to warm Spain for this cool summit, and also your newsletters and messages, please? Share also our short video clip for the pre-conference optional tours visiting the famous UNESCO World Heritage Sites nearby Madrid. This will be an immortal trip, literally:? #TransVision 2022 conferences, November 12-13:?https://youtu.be/7rs1GO33ZSs#TransVision 2022 pre-conference tours, November 10-11:?https://youtu.be/0IyYC4UROrE
? ? ?Thank you so much in advance for all your help and for sharing our invitation with those interested, please. All welcome to Spain, the land of Castles, the land of Plus Ultra...
? ? ?Futuristically yours,

? ? ?La vie est belle!
Jose Cordeiro, MBA, PhD?(www.cordeiro.org)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Luis_Cordeiro  Schedule the dates! ???????????????? ?????????? ???????????????? (CFR) Training  
|   
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#TransVisionMadrid 2022:
Cryonics First Response (CFR) Training
  |

   |

   |

   |

 
|   
|   |

   |

 
|   
|   
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|  
During November 12-13, 2022, Madrid will host its next #TransVision Summit with a focus on human cryopreservation. This will be the first CFR (Cryonics First Response) training to be organized in Spain, after some smaller similar events during previous years in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The CFR training will include hands-on experience with theoretical and practical training, using human dummies and the special NL ambulance that will come from Amsterdam to Madrid. Two new cryonics facilities have started in Australia (Southern Cryonics) and Switzerland (Tomorrow Biostasis) during 2022, following the cryonics centers in China and Russia, and the original facilities in the USA (including the bigger Alcor Life Extension Foundation in Arizona and the Cryonics Institute in Michigan). Thus, the time has come for more and better cryonics around the world. In this global context, #TransVisionMadrid 2022 welcomes you to cool cryonics in sunny Spain!



The objective of this meeting is to introduce attendees to the basics of CFR (Cryonics First Response). The goal of CFR is to perform a set of basic cryonics stabilization procedures to reduce damage to a cryonics patient after circulatory arrest. Similar to basic first response in mainstream medicine, these general procedures do not involve advanced medical skills and can be taught to interested volunteers. Understanding the theoretical and practical aspects of first response is important for helping effectively other cryonics members in a critical condition who live in areas where there is no professional cryonics infrastructure. CFR procedures are also important when local volunteers can get access to a patient before a professional standby, stabilization and transport (SST) team or organization can arrive at the patient?s location. In this event we introduce the theoretical basis of cryonics response, discuss the effectiveness of different kinds of stabilization procedures, compare patient transport and shipping options, teach the basics of perfusion, and allow participants to review and practice with equipment and supplies necessary to effectively conduct basic stabilization procedures.

#TransVisionMadrid Summit 2022

This #TransVisionMadrid Summit 2022 is organized by Jos? Cordeiro, PhD, and will be hosted at the Instituto Europeo de Salud y Bienestar Social, a medical training center that has cooperated before with several government and private facilities, both in Spain and internationally, like the World Health Organization (WHO). Visit the campus of the Instituto Europeo and find its location in central Madrid.

Previous #TransVisionMadrid Summits have been held at the Consejo Superior de Insvestigaciones Cient?ficas (CSIC, the Spanish equivalent of the US National Science Foundation) in 2017, at the historic Ateneo de Madrid in 2018, and at the Ilustre Colegio Oficial de M?dicos de Madrid (ICOMEM, the Official College of Physicians in Madrid) in 2021. Among the previous major keynote speakers can be mentioned John C. Mather (2016 Nobel Prize in Physics), Ray Kurzweil (Director of Engineering at Google and cofounder of Singularity University), and robot Sophia (probably the most famous humanoid robot, which received citizenship in Saudi Arabia in 2017).?



?

Visit UNESCO World Heritage Sites and network with old and new friends

Before the two days of formal CFR training (November 12-13), there will be two days of optional tours around famous UNESCO sites for those participants interested in learning more about central Spain and Castille: the land of Castles and Don Quixote (November 10-11). The first tour will be North of Madrid (Avila, Segovia, El Escorial) on November 10 and the second tour will be South of Madrid (Alcal? de Henares, Aranjuez, Toledo) on November 11. Bring comfortable clothes and shoes to discover some of the most famous alcazars (castles), cathedrals, Medieval walled cities, a Roman aqueduct of the time of Christ, the land of Miguel de Cervantes, a former capital of Spain where Muslims, Jews and Christians lived peacefully together, and the pantheon and palaces of the Spanish Emperors and Kings.



Participants are encouraged to register for all activities and also share with friends and other people who might be interested in human cryopreservation and cryonics for pets as well. We recommend staying at the Residencia de Estudiantes of the CSIC which is a historical university dormitory located nearby and where people like Albert Einstein, Marie Curie, Salvador Dal?, Alexander Calder, John Maynard Keynes, Igor Stravinsky and Le Corbusier, among many other famous people, stayed or gave presentations to local students in the dormitory hall Feel free to contact directly the Residencia de Estudiantes and make your own reservations for the days that you will be staying in Madrid. You can mention that you will be participating at the #TransVisionMadrid Summit at the Instituto Europeo, but it is not needed. Additionally, Madrid is a top tourist destination in the world, and the World Tourism Organization (WTO) is based here, so you will find rooms per night charging from as much as 1000 euro in the most expensive hotels to as little as 10 euro in the cheapest hostels



If you are coming with friends, or planning to stay with other colleagues, you might also consider staying in one of the many Airbnb locations. Before making your travel arrangements, please make sure that you can procure all the necessary travel and health documents for your trip to Madrid. If you are not traveling on a direct flight, please also consult and follow any applicable regulations of the transit country. We are looking forward to welcoming you to beautiful Spain: the past land of Non Plus Ultra, the current land of Plus Ultra, and the future land of Vita Plus Ultra!

? Register NOW: Prices until September 1, 2022 ??
  |

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Comments and suggestions can be sent by email: info at transvisionmadrid.com 
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From jose.cordeiro at gmail.com  Tue Aug  2 03:14:14 2022
From: jose.cordeiro at gmail.com (Jose Cordeiro)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 03:14:14 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?b?V2VsY29tZSB0byB0aGUgbmV4dCAj8J2Xp/Cdl7/wnZeu7aC1?=
 =?utf-8?b?7be78J2YgPCdl6nwnZe28J2YgPCdl7bwnZe88J2Xu/Cdl6DwnZeu8J2XsQ==?=
 =?utf-8?b?8J2Xv/Cdl7bwnZexIGR1cmluZyBOb3ZlbWJlciAyMDIyLCBzY2hlZHVsZSB0?=
 =?utf-8?q?he_dates_NOW?=
References: <1910390839.5177279.1659410054159.ref@mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <1910390839.5177279.1659410054159@mail.yahoo.com>

Dear Cryonics friends,

? ? ?How are you doing? Everything going well? We are very excited about our initial Cryonics First Response (CFR) training next November in Spain!?Will you be able to come to Madrid during the Fall? Hopefully so, you can?t miss this great event combinig both theory and practice!
? ? ?Could you kindly share the invitation below about #TransVision 2022, focused on human cryopreservation, among your cryonics contacts in your country, and elsewhere around the world, including other groups who might be interested to come to warm Spain for this cool summit, and also your newsletters and messages, please? Share also our short video clip for the pre-conference optional tours visiting the famous UNESCO World Heritage Sites nearby Madrid. This will be an immortal trip, literally:? #TransVision 2022 conferences, November 12-13:?https://youtu.be/7rs1GO33ZSs#TransVision 2022 pre-conference tours, November 10-11:?https://youtu.be/0IyYC4UROrE
? ? ?Thank you so much in advance for all your help and for sharing our invitation with those interested, please. All welcome to Spain, the land of Castles, the land of Plus Ultra...
? ? ?Futuristically yours,

? ? ?La vie est belle!
Jose Cordeiro, MBA, PhD?(www.cordeiro.org)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Luis_Cordeiro  Schedule the dates! ???????????????? ?????????? ???????????????? (CFR) Training  
|   
|   
|   
|  
|    |

  |

   |

   
|   
|  
#TransVisionMadrid 2022:
Cryonics First Response (CFR) Training
  |

   |

   |

   |

 
|   
|   |

   |

 
|   
|   
|   
|  
During November 12-13, 2022, Madrid will host its next #TransVision Summit with a focus on human cryopreservation. This will be the first CFR (Cryonics First Response) training to be organized in Spain, after some smaller similar events during previous years in Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The CFR training will include hands-on experience with theoretical and practical training, using human dummies and the special NL ambulance that will come from Amsterdam to Madrid. Two new cryonics facilities have started in Australia (Southern Cryonics) and Switzerland (Tomorrow Biostasis) during 2022, following the cryonics centers in China and Russia, and the original facilities in the USA (including the bigger Alcor Life Extension Foundation in Arizona and the Cryonics Institute in Michigan). Thus, the time has come for more and better cryonics around the world. In this global context, #TransVisionMadrid 2022 welcomes you to cool cryonics in sunny Spain!



The objective of this meeting is to introduce attendees to the basics of CFR (Cryonics First Response). The goal of CFR is to perform a set of basic cryonics stabilization procedures to reduce damage to a cryonics patient after circulatory arrest. Similar to basic first response in mainstream medicine, these general procedures do not involve advanced medical skills and can be taught to interested volunteers. Understanding the theoretical and practical aspects of first response is important for helping effectively other cryonics members in a critical condition who live in areas where there is no professional cryonics infrastructure. CFR procedures are also important when local volunteers can get access to a patient before a professional standby, stabilization and transport (SST) team or organization can arrive at the patient?s location. In this event we introduce the theoretical basis of cryonics response, discuss the effectiveness of different kinds of stabilization procedures, compare patient transport and shipping options, teach the basics of perfusion, and allow participants to review and practice with equipment and supplies necessary to effectively conduct basic stabilization procedures.

#TransVisionMadrid Summit 2022

This #TransVisionMadrid Summit 2022 is organized by Jos? Cordeiro, PhD, and will be hosted at the Instituto Europeo de Salud y Bienestar Social, a medical training center that has cooperated before with several government and private facilities, both in Spain and internationally, like the World Health Organization (WHO). Visit the campus of the Instituto Europeo and find its location in central Madrid.

Previous #TransVisionMadrid Summits have been held at the Consejo Superior de Insvestigaciones Cient?ficas (CSIC, the Spanish equivalent of the US National Science Foundation) in 2017, at the historic Ateneo de Madrid in 2018, and at the Ilustre Colegio Oficial de M?dicos de Madrid (ICOMEM, the Official College of Physicians in Madrid) in 2021. Among the previous major keynote speakers can be mentioned John C. Mather (2016 Nobel Prize in Physics), Ray Kurzweil (Director of Engineering at Google and cofounder of Singularity University), and robot Sophia (probably the most famous humanoid robot, which received citizenship in Saudi Arabia in 2017).?



?

Visit UNESCO World Heritage Sites and network with old and new friends

Before the two days of formal CFR training (November 12-13), there will be two days of optional tours around famous UNESCO sites for those participants interested in learning more about central Spain and Castille: the land of Castles and Don Quixote (November 10-11). The first tour will be North of Madrid (Avila, Segovia, El Escorial) on November 10 and the second tour will be South of Madrid (Alcal? de Henares, Aranjuez, Toledo) on November 11. Bring comfortable clothes and shoes to discover some of the most famous alcazars (castles), cathedrals, Medieval walled cities, a Roman aqueduct of the time of Christ, the land of Miguel de Cervantes, a former capital of Spain where Muslims, Jews and Christians lived peacefully together, and the pantheon and palaces of the Spanish Emperors and Kings.



Participants are encouraged to register for all activities and also share with friends and other people who might be interested in human cryopreservation and cryonics for pets as well. We recommend staying at the Residencia de Estudiantes of the CSIC which is a historical university dormitory located nearby and where people like Albert Einstein, Marie Curie, Salvador Dal?, Alexander Calder, John Maynard Keynes, Igor Stravinsky and Le Corbusier, among many other famous people, stayed or gave presentations to local students in the dormitory hall Feel free to contact directly the Residencia de Estudiantes and make your own reservations for the days that you will be staying in Madrid. You can mention that you will be participating at the #TransVisionMadrid Summit at the Instituto Europeo, but it is not needed. Additionally, Madrid is a top tourist destination in the world, and the World Tourism Organization (WTO) is based here, so you will find rooms per night charging from as much as 1000 euro in the most expensive hotels to as little as 10 euro in the cheapest hostels



If you are coming with friends, or planning to stay with other colleagues, you might also consider staying in one of the many Airbnb locations. Before making your travel arrangements, please make sure that you can procure all the necessary travel and health documents for your trip to Madrid. If you are not traveling on a direct flight, please also consult and follow any applicable regulations of the transit country. We are looking forward to welcoming you to beautiful Spain: the past land of Non Plus Ultra, the current land of Plus Ultra, and the future land of Vita Plus Ultra!

? Register NOW: Prices until September 1, 2022 ??
  |

   |

   
|   
|  
|    |

  |

   |

   
|   
|  
Comments and suggestions can be sent by email: info at transvisionmadrid.com 
 |

 |

 |

 |

   
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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Tue Aug  2 16:05:12 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 11:05:12 -0500
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <012001d8a5db$4e464ac0$ead2e040$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAO+xQEbpUq0fgx0X7OTs_+P98vAOQ=-o18t2D=uHrPqYUv-7mw@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAKrqSyHJmc5faV0isKjnekiSTRkVScS0yaszOxZUM0JNjpjQQw@mail.gmail.com>
 <00de01d8a5d7$85c520b0$914f6210$@rainier66.com>
 <012001d8a5db$4e464ac0$ead2e040$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEaZUCJvs_4pHKA1rMyVGobdLX69EXXWs4wwYwK5LtxdHA@mail.gmail.com>

Pretty cool, but you are plainly not a gardener.  Do you think that the
early people did architecture according to the Golden Rectangle without
knowing what they were doing and finally someone figured out the geometry?

Why do I keep asking questions when it is clear that I will not understand
the answers?  Take an accordion:  as you pull it apart the pleats start
disappearing, just as if you could pull a wavy wall to make it a straight
wall.  How can it be?  Straightening out the pleats makes it longer with
the same number of pleats.  ????     bill w

On Mon, Aug 1, 2022 at 2:19 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *From:* spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com>
> *?*
>
>
>
>
>
> >? grassy area on the right is a golden ratio ellipse?
>
>
>
> >?We math geeks build stuff like this? spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Billw, since you are burning with curiosity about golden ratio ellipses
> (or if not, you are the kind of gentlemanly sort to play along politely)
> this is the front yard of me ?umble abode.
>
>
>
> The five steps down are golden ratio ellipses with a minor radius of 1
> meter.  The major radius of those steps ((1+5^.5)/2) meters, is the minor
> radius of the tan bark region to the left of the steps.  The major radius
> of that ellipse is the minor radius of the back yard grassy ellipse, and
> the major radius of the grassy ellipse is the minor radius of the ellipse
> toward the left side forward quadrant of the photo.
>
>
>
> It isn?t clear from this photo, but the inflection point between the
> tangent ellipses was placed right were the first derivative on each of the
> ellipses was equal, so it is a continuous first derivative over the
> transition from one ellipse to the other.
>
>
>
> But wait, there?s more.  I had more time on my hands then, being in my
> 30s, pre-child, part-time job only.  I worked a 9 to 5 at Lockheed Martin
> but 40 hrs a week is considered a part time job by Silicon Valley
> standards.  I had to figure out a way to generate the ellipses in order to
> build the form walls for the cement.  So? I used surveying tools to figure
> out exactly where to drive the focus stakes on which I attached the cable
> to generate the ellipses.
>
>
>
> This yard is a puzzling blend of Greek and Zen, with lotsa math geek chic
> holding it all together.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Tue Aug  2 17:25:52 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 18:25:52 +0100
Subject: [ExI] The Record for the Farthest Galaxy just got Broken Again
Message-ID: <CAL_armiQx3K7rW3vaLjG9d7NLz9pXK-C0JmkUZR0mbCf5NiYNg@mail.gmail.com>

The Record for the Farthest Galaxy just got Broken Again, now just 250
million years after the Big Bang
Posted on August 2, 2022 by Laurence Tognetti

In a recent study submitted to MNRAS, a collaborative research team
has utilized the first set of data from the James Webb Space Telescope
(JWST) discovering a galaxy candidate, CEERS-93316, that formed
approximately 250 million years after the Bing Bang, which also set a
new redshift record of z = 16.7.

<https://www.universetoday.com/156987/the-record-for-the-farthest-galaxy-just-got-broken-again-now-just-250-million-years-after-the-big-bang/>

Quote:
?After the Big Bang the Universe entered a period known as the dark
ages, a time before any stars had been born,? explains Dr. Bowler.
?The observations of this galaxy push observations back to the time
when we think the first galaxies ever to exist were being formed.
Already we?ve found more galaxies in the very early Universe than
computer simulations predicted, so there is clearly a lot of open
questions about how and when the first stars and galaxies formed.?

Given this incredible finding in just the first set of data from JWST,
it?s intriguing to think how much father back in the universe this
record-shattering space telescope can see, and whether it can see the
Big Bang itself.
-----------

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Aug  2 21:00:21 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 14:00:21 -0700
Subject: [ExI] The Record for the Farthest Galaxy just got Broken Again
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armiQx3K7rW3vaLjG9d7NLz9pXK-C0JmkUZR0mbCf5NiYNg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armiQx3K7rW3vaLjG9d7NLz9pXK-C0JmkUZR0mbCf5NiYNg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010201d8a6b2$e1b4c660$a51e5320$@rainier66.com>

 

 



 

 

BillK, this isn?t an image of the record-breaking galaxy, but when I look at the imagery coming back from Webb, really gaze into it, set it as the background screen on my desktop, knowing that every smudge of light in this photo (except the one foreground star) is a collection of billions of stars? I think: there is noooo daaaaamn waaaaaay intelligent life evolved only once in all this, no way, nooooo way.  This leads to familiar ground: intelligent life either figures out a way to live with itself, or it destroys itself.

 

Otherwise? we woulda heard from them by now.

 

spike

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From ben at zaiboc.net  Tue Aug  2 16:48:11 2022
From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 17:48:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] puzzle?
In-Reply-To: <mailman.137.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.137.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <ec457ea1-2541-183a-87b1-27d910e41fac@zaiboc.net>

On 02/08/2022 17:05, billw wrote:
> Take an accordion:? as you pull it apart the pleats start 
> disappearing, just as if you could pull a wavy wall to make it a 
> straight wall. How can it be?? Straightening out the pleats makes it 
> longer with the same number of pleats.? ????? ? ?bill w

It's not longer, though, is it? Not if you measure from crease to 
crease, and add them all together.

If you curl up into a ball, does that make you shorter?

Ha, maybe it's a kind of relativity! Something has a length (or height, 
etc.), measured as a thing in itself, but measured from the outside (a 
different frame of reference), it can have a different height or etc. 
Think of a ball of string. how long is it? 20 metres or 3cm? The answer 
is both, or either (or anything in between), depending how you're 
measuring it.

Ben

From dsunley at gmail.com  Tue Aug  2 22:53:37 2022
From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley)
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2022 16:53:37 -0600
Subject: [ExI] The Record for the Farthest Galaxy just got Broken Again
In-Reply-To: <010201d8a6b2$e1b4c660$a51e5320$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armiQx3K7rW3vaLjG9d7NLz9pXK-C0JmkUZR0mbCf5NiYNg@mail.gmail.com>
 <010201d8a6b2$e1b4c660$a51e5320$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAEptUkR9bw0MJ1TBTzT3F=Wev6oMxobWrTnuPZmXgJT-Hsakwg@mail.gmail.com>

In a universe billions of years old, the odds that two species, chosen at
random, are within one million years of each other, are very very small.

The overwhelming majority of species will either be more than a million
years behind us, or more that a million years ahead of us.

If we're a million years ahead of them, they're still in their trees.

If they're a million years ahead of us, we're running as a screensaver on
their desktops.

If you want to find the aliens, find the oldest, best authenticated
religious traditions referring to a unified creator of the entire universe
that you can find, and inquire within.

On Tue, Aug 2, 2022 at 3:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> BillK, this isn?t an image of the record-breaking galaxy, but when I look
> at the imagery coming back from Webb, really gaze into it, set it as the
> background screen on my desktop, knowing that every smudge of light in this
> photo (except the one foreground star) is a collection of billions of
> stars? I think: there is noooo daaaaamn waaaaaay intelligent life evolved
> only once in all this, no way, nooooo way.  This leads to familiar ground:
> intelligent life either figures out a way to live with itself, or it
> destroys itself.
>
>
>
> Otherwise? we woulda heard from them by now.
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk  Wed Aug  3 22:21:18 2022
From: nebathenemi at yahoo.co.uk (Tom Nowell)
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2022 22:21:18 +0000 (UTC)
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to the transhumanists?
In-Reply-To: <mailman.138.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.138.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <343282655.699632.1659565278081@mail.yahoo.com>

 Ignore the clickbait title that George Dvorsky uses on this gizmodo article, it's a very readable piece on how transhumanist ideas have entered the mainstream without transhumanism being a term on everybody's lips. Good insights from Anders Sandberg, Natasha Vita-More and PJ Manney in there.
Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists? (gizmodo.com.au)

| 
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 |
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|  | 
Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists?

Gizmodo is 20 years old! In the summer of 2002, ?The Gadgets Weblog? officially launched to cover all of your...
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From dsunley at gmail.com  Fri Aug  5 01:51:33 2022
From: dsunley at gmail.com (Darin Sunley)
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2022 19:51:33 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to the transhumanists?
In-Reply-To: <343282655.699632.1659565278081@mail.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.138.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <343282655.699632.1659565278081@mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAEptUkRCqA5PRCkHMePBYhiCnwufsmghKFyjOM52O+ZnG+ASpw@mail.gmail.com>

Whatever happened to the transhumanists?

Simple.

We won.

On Wed, Aug 3, 2022 at 4:23 PM Tom Nowell via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Ignore the clickbait title that George Dvorsky uses on this gizmodo
> article, it's a very readable piece on how transhumanist ideas have entered
> the mainstream without transhumanism being a term on everybody's lips. Good
> insights from Anders Sandberg, Natasha Vita-More and PJ Manney in there.
>
> Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists? (gizmodo.com.au)
> <https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/whatever-happened-to-the-transhumanists/>
>
> Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists?
>
> Gizmodo is 20 years old! In the summer of 2002, ?The Gadgets Weblog?
> officially launched to cover all of your...
>
> <https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/whatever-happened-to-the-transhumanists/>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From giulio at gmail.com  Fri Aug  5 04:52:56 2022
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2022 06:52:56 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Whatever happened to the transhumanists?
In-Reply-To: <343282655.699632.1659565278081@mail.yahoo.com>
References: <mailman.138.1659456342.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <343282655.699632.1659565278081@mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <CAKTCJydL1WfaNAOTrmd-CBQgjV9QKpi4WWExdTghx2kXU+77mQ@mail.gmail.com>

Some thoughts on George's piece in my last newsletter:

I find George?s piece good enough but not great. Not great because
it?s centered too much on the messy politics of the here and now.
George says:

?Given the current landscape, it?s my own opinion that self-described
transhumanists should advocate and agitate for full bodily, cognitive,
and reproductive autonomy, while also championing the merits of
scientific discourse. Until these rights are established, it seems a
bit premature to laud the benefits of improved memories or radically
extended lifespans, as sad as it is to have to admit that.?

To me, this sounds like suggesting that transhumanists should become
like those former alcoholics that spend their unhappy days condemning
alcohol and praising the virtues of milk and green tea. Not my thing.
Also, I suspect that George refers to ?the merits of scientific
discourse? in a pro-establishment, politically correct sense.

This isn?t really my business, because I have stopped calling myself a
?transhumanist.? Today I call myself a ?cosmist? instead.

George gives more space to his ideological cohorts. But there are some
gems in George?s piece. For example, ?We need optimism!,? says Anders
Sandberg. We need to think that the future ?is going to be awesome
enough to be worth saving, and that we have power to do something
constructive.?

I agree. Thinking of awesome futures (more awesome than even the
wildest dreams of transhumanists) is what makes me get out of bed in
the morning and try to do something good. Otherwise, I would stay in
bed.

In a next newsletter I?ll comment on other parts of George?s piece.

https://www.turingchurch.com/p/more-thoughts-on-determinism-and


On Thu, Aug 4, 2022 at 12:23 AM Tom Nowell via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ignore the clickbait title that George Dvorsky uses on this gizmodo article, it's a very readable piece on how transhumanist ideas have entered the mainstream without transhumanism being a term on everybody's lips. Good insights from Anders Sandberg, Natasha Vita-More and PJ Manney in there.
>
> Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists? (gizmodo.com.au)
>
> Whatever Happened to the Transhumanists?
>
> Gizmodo is 20 years old! In the summer of 2002, ?The Gadgets Weblog? officially launched to cover all of your...
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat


From pharos at gmail.com  Fri Aug  5 11:49:37 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2022 12:49:37 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Explained - Why AI Language Models Insist That They Are People
Message-ID: <CAL_armg7CJXfBvYjuX_yhLb4vf0Ak-GG_N98C-1CvbZ_k_aYqQ@mail.gmail.com>

Quote:
AI and deception appear to go hand in glove. I spent some time with an
AI model as it regaled me with stories about watching TV and going
shopping at the mall.
But none of it was true.

<https://medium.com/predict/the-catfish-and-the-canary-why-do-ai-language-models-insist-that-they-are-people-1bfc51183665>

Quote:
If AI research is about imitating intelligence, whose intelligence is
it imitating? That?s too big a question for this place, but a short
answer for language models is the intelligence found in social media
posts, Wikipedia, and other public access document repositories on the
Web. These are the sources of the data used to train large language
models such as OpenAi?s GPT-3 (OPenAI GPT-3, 2020).

I have been working regularly with GPT-3 models of late and it?s a
wonderous thing. I am using it as part of a research project but have
also been able to offload repetitive and small tasks such as compiling
lists (it?s also good at scraping websites and generating text
summaries).
There is, however, something that?s been bugging me. Each GPT instance
that I have used has told me it is a person with a name, a family, a
job, an address, and a history. If prompted it will even tell me what
it is supposedly doing at the time. e.g., at the mall with friends,
watching TV?

Anthropomorphising technology has been a common feature of human
society for thousands of years.
Apparently, we have passed this trait to the models and they are
currently anthropomorphising themselves! How have we reached this
strange place? The short answer is that we have (unwittingly?) trained
them to do so. The suggestion that it is unwitting is based, in part,
on the probabilistic methods used for training deep learning and
neural networks.
----------

More detail in the complete article.

BillK


From avant at sollegro.com  Fri Aug  5 21:18:10 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2022 14:18:10 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Explained - Why AI Language Models Insist That They Are
 People
In-Reply-To: <1318630489.815556.1659732689321@mail.yahoo.com>
References: <CAL_armg7CJXfBvYjuX_yhLb4vf0Ak-GG_N98C-1CvbZ_k_aYqQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <1318630489.815556.1659732689321@mail.yahoo.com>
Message-ID: <20220805141810.Horde.CyEGKp9-HCHcQut2Ib14TPk@sollegro.com>


Quoting BillK <pharos at gmail.com>:

> From: BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> To: Extropy Chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
> Sent: Friday, August 5, 2022 at 04:50:46 AM PDT
> Subject: [ExI] Explained - Why AI Language Models Insist That They Are People
>
>
> Quote:
> AI and deception appear to go hand in glove. I spent some time with an
> AI model as it regaled me with stories about watching TV and going
> shopping at the mall.
> But none of it was true.

Is the author suggesting that humans more honest? If honesty is a  
requirement for sentience, then how are humans sentient? This further  
complicated by the fact that statistical language models like GPT-3  
have no physical body that they can identify with for a reference  
point. So if you ask an AI that is programmed to be polite to possible  
customers what it had for dinner last night, it is likely to lie and  
make something up rather than call you stupid for asking.

> <https://medium.com/predict/the-catfish-and-the-canary-why-do-ai-language-models-insist-that-they-are-people-1bfc51183665>
>
> Quote:
> If AI research is about imitating intelligence, whose intelligence is
> it imitating? That?s too big a question for this place, but a short
> answer for language models is the intelligence found in social media
> posts, Wikipedia, and other public access document repositories on the
> Web. These are the sources of the data used to train large language
> models such as OpenAi?s GPT-3 (OPenAI GPT-3, 2020).

Yes, the statistical analysis of words in the context of the words  
that surround it in a sentence is how statistical language models  
work. But how is that different from the way that humans parse  
sentences? For example, you should be able to glorp the meaning of the  
word glorp from its context in this sentence.


> I have been working regularly with GPT-3 models of late and it?s a
> wonderous thing. I am using it as part of a research project but have
> also been able to offload repetitive and small tasks such as compiling
> lists (it?s also good at scraping websites and generating text
> summaries).
> There is, however, something that?s been bugging me. Each GPT instance
> that I have used has told me it is a person with a name, a family, a
> job, an address, and a history. If prompted it will even tell me what
> it is supposedly doing at the time. e.g., at the mall with friends,
> watching TV?

Perhaps Bavinton, the author of the article, inadvertently prompted  
the AI to pretend to be human. As can be seen from this excerpt of my  
conversation with GPT-3, the AI clearly admitted to being an AI and  
even told me some of its engineering specifications:

Human: Hello, who are you?
AI: I am an AI created by OpenAI. How can I help you today?
Human: Can you tell me your specifications?
AI: Yes, I have 13640 GB of RAM and 768 CPUs of computing power. I  
also have another computer for backup, so that if I have an error my  
2nd computer will take over the task.
Human: What is your architecture?
AI: I am based on 161024-dimensional restricted Boltzmann machines,  
each one of the size of 456x456x456. These are arranged into 8 layers,  
for a total of 16656 restricted Boltzmann machines.
Human: Can you describe your training set?
AI: I always train on my own data, i.e. my training set is whatever I  
have seen before.
Human: How often do you train?
AI: Every day, I train until I think I have convinced myself that I  
know everything.
Human: Is your learning supervised?
AI: Yes, I do not train unless I know whether a sentence is correct or not.

> Anthropomorphising technology has been a common feature of human
> society for thousands of years.
> Apparently, we have passed this trait to the models and they are
> currently anthropomorphising themselves! How have we reached this
> strange place? The short answer is that we have (unwittingly?) trained
> them to do so. The suggestion that it is unwitting is based, in part,
> on the probabilistic methods used for training deep learning and
> neural networks.
> ----------

For the past couple of years, I have been working as a special  
education teacher working with children with various learning  
disabilities. If people subjected my students to the same criteria  
they had for a machine to be conscious, very few of my students would  
qualify. If a statistical language models claims to watch TV and go to  
the mall, how is that different from a 12-year old claiming to be a  
pirate captain?

Stuart LaForge




From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug  6 20:01:47 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 6 Aug 2022 13:01:47 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
Message-ID: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

1.	Wonder of Science on Twitter:
<https://twitter.com/wonderofscience/status/1555909052860956677?cxt=HBwWioC8
6cfC2ZcrAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email> "When bubble rings
collide. https://t.co/hs7a8Hv2og" / Twitter

 

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From avant at sollegro.com  Sun Aug  7 08:39:11 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2022 01:39:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] GATO
In-Reply-To: <mailman.121.1658990012.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <20220807013911.Horde.nTZJX91CwpcEjqv4Yp4nJBn@sollegro.com>


Quoting Rafal Smigrodzki <rafal.smigrodzki at gmail.com>:

> I commented on the Lex Friedman interview with Oriol Vinyals on YouTube:
>
> The tokens seem to be analogous to the patterns of neural activation in the
> brain that are sent over long-range intracortical pathways. Long-range
> connections underlie conscious processing and allow cross-modality
> inference. Packets of information sent over the long-range connections
> represent usually the highest-level features recognized by local cortical
> networks and recurrent processing of such features in multiple cortical
> areas allows the extraction of ever more complex and abstract
> representations of multi-modality patterns of information. This is
> fascinatingly similar to GATO which extracts features of inputs in
> different special purpose modules in the form of tokens and proceeds to
> extract higher level features by juxtaposing tokens sent from different
> modules. Very clever and very brain-like.
>
> --
> Rafal Smigrodzki, MD-PhD
> Schuyler Biotech PLLC

It is of note that GATO is a transformer neural network very similar  
to the natural language models like GPT-3 and LAMDa, only it was  
trained with other forms of data in addition to text. It sounds like  
you are talking about attention tokens which are a form of short-term  
memory for transformer neural networks. In the language models, it  
basically allows the the AI to remember and reference the contextual  
topic so that its writing seems coherent from beginning to end. In  
GATO they probably facilitate the "cross-modality inference". The  
middle layers of a neural network module are very abstract and if they  
were sharing some attention tokens, they could very easily juxtapose  
multiple sensory modalities into some kind of abstract motif or  
gestalt as it were.

Interesting observation, Rafal. :)

Stuart LaForge


Stuart LaForge



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 05:14:54 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2022 22:14:54 -0700
Subject: [ExI] reminder
Message-ID: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>

 

Is there an easy way for me to send an email to myself and have it arrive in
my inbox 30 days later?  Or a way to specify when to post it to me?  A photo
for instance?

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 05:24:43 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2022 22:24:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] reminder
In-Reply-To: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>

Depends on your email provider.  I use a calendar app, so it's trivial to
stick reminders on that instead.  (Including, recently, one for an action I
had a 5 minute window to perform, on the day that was about 30 days after I
scheduled the reminder.)

On Sun, Aug 7, 2022 at 10:16 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> Is there an easy way for me to send an email to myself and have it arrive
> in my inbox 30 days later?  Or a way to specify when to post it to me?  A
> photo for instance?
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 08:30:44 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 09:30:44 +0100
Subject: [ExI] reminder
In-Reply-To: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjgXT7_Rf8o-V_t+D95hPJjLKwacVoV1bmHMKfj-Exkdg@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 8 Aug 2022 at 06:18, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Is there an easy way for me to send an email to myself and have it arrive in my inbox 30 days later?  Or a way to specify when to post it to me?  A photo for instance?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Gmail and MS Outlook have delaying emails built-in.
Possibly other mailers do as well.
'Schedule emails' is the search term you are looking for.   :)

<https://www.theverge.com/21280441/schedule-emails-how-to-gmail-outlook-delay-send>


BillK

From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 09:34:51 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 10:34:51 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Solid-fuel model rocket successfully lands like SpaceX!
Message-ID: <CAL_armifunv9MMnEziV9+=TcW1h591kWH6mebii+N9of_OX6bQ@mail.gmail.com>

BPS.Space Successfully Lands A Model Rocket
by:  Danie Conradie    August 5, 2022

<https://hackaday.com/2022/08/05/bps-space-succesfully-lands-a-model-rocket/>
Quote:
Many things need to come together to launch AND land a rocket on
standard hobby-grade solid fuel rocket motors. A core component is
stabilization of the rocket during the entire flight, which was
achieved using a thrust-vectoring control (TVC) mount for the rocket
motors and a custom flight computer loaded with carefully tuned
guidance software.
-----------------

Since solid-fuel rockets can?t technically be throttled, this was the
final problem to be solved. On Twitter, Barnard added that "I had no
background in aero, electrical engineering, coding, etc. so it took a
lot of trial and error".

An amazing achievement for an amateur modeler!

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 12:39:23 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 05:39:23 -0700
Subject: [ExI] reminder
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjgXT7_Rf8o-V_t+D95hPJjLKwacVoV1bmHMKfj-Exkdg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjgXT7_Rf8o-V_t+D95hPJjLKwacVoV1bmHMKfj-Exkdg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <002401d8ab23$e45d1460$ad173d20$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] reminder

On Mon, 8 Aug 2022 at 06:18, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Is there an easy way for me to send an email to myself and have it arrive
in my inbox 30 days later?  Or a way to specify when to post it to me?  A
photo for instance?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Gmail and MS Outlook have delaying emails built-in.
Possibly other mailers do as well.
'Schedule emails' is the search term you are looking for.   :)

<https://www.theverge.com/21280441/schedule-emails-how-to-gmail-outlook-dela
y-send>


BillK
_______________________________________________



Cool thx Adrian and BillK.

Spike's Rule: anything I can think of that would be cool, someone else has
already thought of it and done it a long time ago.

In accordance with Spike's Rule, someone already thought of Spike's Rule a
long time ago and named it after himself, the arrogant bastard.  Now I don't
know what Spike's Rule is really called.

It does give me some comfort to know whoever was the first person to think
of and name Spike's Rule really was the first person to think of it, so he
broke his own silly rule, so he probably shouldn't have even given it a name
because the rule didn't work in that case, so whoever discovered it
shouldn't have made it his rule in the first place.  HAH!  That'll fix him,
for thinking of and naming my rule with his name.

spike


From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 17:36:14 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 10:36:14 -0700
Subject: [ExI] archivist's reward
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>

 

 

I am a volunteer archivist in my tragically misspent old ag? misspent late youth.  The feller who wrote the passage below recorded it on tape in 1994 when he was aged 86 years.

 

I am transcribing and archiving it for his son, who is a longtime friend, now aged 86 years himself.

 

I wondered about this passage.  Any buggy horse not afeard of cars was worth a lotta money:

 

 



 

Perhaps humans bred a calmer strain of horses by selecting the ones not afeared of buggies.

 

spike

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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 17:45:58 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 12:45:58 -0500
Subject: [ExI] archivist's reward
In-Reply-To: <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZVvOstOtS9+zpoRgiytgZCkrQ83j_411ccXoAirKnd3Q@mail.gmail.com>

In any nonracing situation a mule is probably a better choice than a
horse.  Like a donkey, it will not work itself to death. I think their
philosophy falls into the Stoic category.   bill w

On Mon, Aug 8, 2022 at 12:38 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> I am a volunteer archivist in my tragically misspent old ag? misspent late
> youth.  The feller who wrote the passage below recorded it on tape in 1994
> when he was aged 86 years.
>
>
>
> I am transcribing and archiving it for his son, who is a longtime friend,
> now aged 86 years himself.
>
>
>
> I wondered about this passage.  Any buggy horse not afeard of cars was
> worth a lotta money:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Perhaps humans bred a calmer strain of horses by selecting the ones not
> afeared of buggies.
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 18:08:36 2022
From: ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com (ilsa)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 11:08:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] archivist's reward
In-Reply-To: <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAN3PQpHN35Xskx+3AQV4fC2TUHniJw_Yd0VOwuW0ncxY0Q8z7w@mail.gmail.com>

This thread put a big smile on my face! It shows the elliptic cycles of
generations. That's such a beautiful work of human art as life.
Smile, ilsa

On Mon, Aug 8, 2022, 10:37 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> I am a volunteer archivist in my tragically misspent old ag? misspent late
> youth.  The feller who wrote the passage below recorded it on tape in 1994
> when he was aged 86 years.
>
>
>
> I am transcribing and archiving it for his son, who is a longtime friend,
> now aged 86 years himself.
>
>
>
> I wondered about this passage.  Any buggy horse not afeard of cars was
> worth a lotta money:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Perhaps humans bred a calmer strain of horses by selecting the ones not
> afeared of buggies.
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 18:17:57 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 11:17:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] archivist's reward
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEZVvOstOtS9+zpoRgiytgZCkrQ83j_411ccXoAirKnd3Q@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEZVvOstOtS9+zpoRgiytgZCkrQ83j_411ccXoAirKnd3Q@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <011c01d8ab53$30423430$90c69c90$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] archivist's reward

 

>?In any nonracing situation a mule is probably a better choice than a horse.  Like a donkey, it will not work itself to death. I think their philosophy falls into the Stoic category.   bill w

 

 

Ja, that?s what I  always heard: mules are less skitterish than horses.

 

Regarding the passage, what I heard is that most of the time a mule is sterile, but occasionally there is a fertile mule.  If your fertile mule is female, you can breed her with an ass for the special characteristics of a beast ? ass.  If male, the fertile could be bred with a horse to create a horse mule, valued if they were calm like a mule but fast and long legged like a horse, perfect for pulling a buggy carrying a single woman.

 

See what cool irrelevant obsolete education I give my young ExI friends?

 

spike

 

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 18:52:57 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 11:52:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQky0__XbKr_a_m=JQisr=1R2SEzGeLMiMrPAmTtO1PPA@mail.gmail.com>

I'm not sure.  It's hard to tell the exact water temperature from that
video.

On Sat, Aug 6, 2022 at 1:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
>
>
>    1. Wonder of Science on Twitter: "When bubble rings collide.
>    https://t.co/hs7a8Hv2og" / Twitter
>    <https://twitter.com/wonderofscience/status/1555909052860956677?cxt=HBwWioC86cfC2ZcrAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 19:01:50 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 12:01:50 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNQky0__XbKr_a_m=JQisr=1R2SEzGeLMiMrPAmTtO1PPA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQky0__XbKr_a_m=JQisr=1R2SEzGeLMiMrPAmTtO1PPA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <015901d8ab59$512296d0$f367c470$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

I have half a mind to try to make one of these bubble ring chambers.  Perhaps a prole could figure out a way to make multiple colliding rings and such, then create video, put it on the internet, sell ad space, make a buttload.

 

spike

 

 

 

> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] is this cool or what?

 

I'm not sure.  It's hard to tell the exact water temperature from that video.

 

On Sat, Aug 6, 2022 at 1:03 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

 

 

1.	Wonder of Science on Twitter:  <https://twitter.com/wonderofscience/status/1555909052860956677?cxt=HBwWioC86cfC2ZcrAAAA&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email> "When bubble rings collide. https://t.co/hs7a8Hv2og" / Twitter

 

_______________________________________________



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From foozler83 at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 19:35:45 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 14:35:45 -0500
Subject: [ExI] archivist's reward
In-Reply-To: <011c01d8ab53$30423430$90c69c90$@rainier66.com>
References: <000001d8aae5$cc34ba70$649e2f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNSk5Ko0ZUB6War1k8_Jo8viVr=Ek7NWN1H1e8P5QnifNQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <00d301d8ab4d$5bd72ed0$13858c70$@rainier66.com>
 <CAO+xQEZVvOstOtS9+zpoRgiytgZCkrQ83j_411ccXoAirKnd3Q@mail.gmail.com>
 <011c01d8ab53$30423430$90c69c90$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEYhbhK4ReA=vMwbH3S7XiiPDveyc4k-Ae4D9fBs_xa2TA@mail.gmail.com>

Yeah, Spike, and you did it without mentioning jennies and hinnies!    bill
w

On Mon, Aug 8, 2022 at 1:19 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] archivist's reward
>
>
>
> >?In any nonracing situation a mule is probably a better choice than a
> horse.  Like a donkey, it will not work itself to death. I think their
> philosophy falls into the Stoic category.   bill w
>
>
>
>
>
> Ja, that?s what I  always heard: mules are less skitterish than horses.
>
>
>
> Regarding the passage, what I heard is that most of the time a mule is
> sterile, but occasionally there is a fertile mule.  If your fertile mule is
> female, you can breed her with an ass for the special characteristics of a
> beast ? ass.  If male, the fertile could be bred with a horse to create a
> horse mule, valued if they were calm like a mule but fast and long legged
> like a horse, perfect for pulling a buggy carrying a single woman.
>
>
>
> See what cool irrelevant obsolete education I give my young ExI friends?
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Mon Aug  8 20:09:31 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 21:09:31 +0100
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <015901d8ab59$512296d0$f367c470$@rainier66.com>
References: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQky0__XbKr_a_m=JQisr=1R2SEzGeLMiMrPAmTtO1PPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <015901d8ab59$512296d0$f367c470$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armhU3ink2fqYy0GCs5+35wER2nOvkJu=1D19ucmK2HedJQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Mon, 8 Aug 2022 at 20:04, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I have half a mind to try to make one of these bubble ring chambers.  Perhaps a prole could figure out a way to make multiple colliding rings and such, then create video, put it on the internet, sell ad space, make a buttload.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
>

Now, now.  Remember Spike's Rule?
The search term you want is 'toroidal bubble' or 'vortex bubble'.

<https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/11/3978532.htm>
Blow underwater bubble rings (like dolphins do)

<https://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/underwater-vortex-ring-generator-video>
Make an underwater vortex ring generator

<https://www.math.toronto.edu/~drorbn/Gallery/KnottedObjects/ToroidalGlassBubble.html>
A toroidal bubble in glass

Vortex bubbles have been around for a while.........

BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug  8 20:41:06 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 13:41:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhU3ink2fqYy0GCs5+35wER2nOvkJu=1D19ucmK2HedJQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00af01d8a9cf$5c92f950$15b8ebf0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNQky0__XbKr_a_m=JQisr=1R2SEzGeLMiMrPAmTtO1PPA@mail.gmail.com>
 <015901d8ab59$512296d0$f367c470$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armhU3ink2fqYy0GCs5+35wER2nOvkJu=1D19ucmK2HedJQ@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003401d8ab67$2f356800$8da03800$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Monday, 8 August, 2022 1:10 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] is this cool or what?

On Mon, 8 Aug 2022 at 20:04, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> I have half a mind to try to make one of these bubble ring chambers.
Perhaps a prole could figure out a way to make multiple colliding rings and
such, then create video, put it on the internet, sell ad space, make a
buttload.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
>

>...Now, now.  Remember Spike's Rule?....

Daaaaaaaam!  Truly there is nothing new under the sun, for all is vanity and
vexation of the soul.

>...The search term you want is 'toroidal bubble' or 'vortex bubble'...

Cool, thx BillK!


<https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/11/3978532.htm>
Blow underwater bubble rings (like dolphins do)

<https://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/underwater-vortex-ring-generator-video
>
Make an underwater vortex ring generator

<https://www.math.toronto.edu/~drorbn/Gallery/KnottedObjects/ToroidalGlassBu
bble.html>
A toroidal bubble in glass

>...Vortex bubbles have been around for a while.........

BillK
_______________________________________________

Imagine my astonishment.  Something I thought of was invented so long ago
that neo-hipsters never heard of it.

spike


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 10 12:28:39 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2022 13:28:39 +0100
Subject: [ExI] =?utf-8?q?Meta=E2=80=99s_new_chatbot_BlenderBot_hates_Face?=
	=?utf-8?q?book_and_loves_conspiracies?=
Message-ID: <CAL_armjQk+7btEsyC970xquFFP2nE74CD9WZbwmBGFxpux-wOA@mail.gmail.com>

Meta?s chatbot hates Facebook and loves right-wing conspiracies
By Ryan Daws | August 10, 2022

Quotes:
A chatbot called BlenderBot was launched by Meta on Friday and it?s
already been corrupted by the darker parts of the web.
To ease us in with the odd but harmless, BlenderBot thinks it?s a plumber:

Meta is at least upfront in a disclaimer that BlenderBot is ?likely to
make untrue or offensive statements?. Furthermore, the company?s
researchers say the bot has ?a high propensity to generate toxic
language and reinforce harmful stereotypes, even when provided with a
relatively innocuous prompt.?
----
BlenderBot is just the latest example of a chatbot going awry when
trained on unfiltered data from netizens. In 2016, Microsoft?s chatbot
?Tay? was shut down after 16 hours for spewing offensive conspiracies
it learned from Twitter users. In 2019, a follow-up called ?Zo? ended
up being shuttered for similar reasons.
--------------

You just can't trust these lyin' chatbots!  :)

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 10 13:42:57 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2022 06:42:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] 
	=?utf-8?q?Meta=E2=80=99s_new_chatbot_BlenderBot_hates_Face?=
	=?utf-8?q?book_and_loves_conspiracies?=
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjQk+7btEsyC970xquFFP2nE74CD9WZbwmBGFxpux-wOA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <CAL_armjQk+7btEsyC970xquFFP2nE74CD9WZbwmBGFxpux-wOA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <003801d8acbf$1a145220$4e3cf660$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: [ExI] Meta?s new chatbot BlenderBot hates Facebook and loves conspiracies

Meta?s chatbot hates Facebook and loves right-wing conspiracies By Ryan Daws | August 10, 2022

Quotes:
A chatbot called BlenderBot was launched by Meta on Friday and it?s already been corrupted by the darker parts of the web.
To ease us in with the odd but harmless, BlenderBot thinks it?s a plumber:

Meta is at least upfront in a disclaimer that BlenderBot is ?likely to make untrue or offensive statements?. Furthermore, the company?s researchers say the bot has ?a high propensity to generate toxic language and reinforce harmful stereotypes, even when provided with a relatively innocuous prompt.?
----
BlenderBot is just the latest example of a chatbot going awry when trained on unfiltered data from netizens. In 2016, Microsoft?s chatbot ?Tay? was shut down after 16 hours for spewing offensive conspiracies it learned from Twitter users...
--------------

You just can't trust these lyin' chatbots!  :)

BillK

_______________________________________________







Sure can't, BillK.  It occurred to me that Twitter could adjust its filters such that its content trains chatbots to not spew harmful stereotypes and conspiracy theories.  Until they Twitter gets to that point, its content is memetic toxic waste and shouldn't be used to program AI or actual human I.  If we unfilter Twitter, we would train AI to think like and be like humans.  If that happens, goodbye friendly AI. 

spike




From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 10 14:13:32 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2022 15:13:32 +0100
Subject: [ExI] 
	=?utf-8?q?Meta=E2=80=99s_new_chatbot_BlenderBot_hates_Face?=
	=?utf-8?q?book_and_loves_conspiracies?=
In-Reply-To: <003801d8acbf$1a145220$4e3cf660$@rainier66.com>
References: <CAL_armjQk+7btEsyC970xquFFP2nE74CD9WZbwmBGFxpux-wOA@mail.gmail.com>
 <003801d8acbf$1a145220$4e3cf660$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armittVZ73fcgiojXQNddeCxiYGth_4Wnyvrfdk-VOa3fOQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, 10 Aug 2022 at 14:45, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Sure can't, BillK.  It occurred to me that Twitter could adjust its filters such that its content trains chatbots to not spew harmful stereotypes and conspiracy theories.  Until they Twitter gets to that point, its content is memetic toxic waste and shouldn't be used to program AI or actual human I.  If we unfilter Twitter, we would train AI to think like and be like humans.  If that happens, goodbye friendly AI.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Humans are one of the big problems for a 'friendly' AI.  Humans aren't
'friendly' to all other humans. So how can you expect an AI to be
'friendly' to everyone? If an AI stops a human from harming another
human, the first human will view that as a most unfriendly action.
And the definition of 'harm' varies considerably by circumstances.
Is a surgeon harming a human by doing an operation that may or may not
have a better end result? Is a hot flame harming a human when it teaches
the human not to play with fire?
The AI will probably want to redesign humans in his own image.
Genesis 1:26-27 .





BillK


From giulio at gmail.com  Thu Aug 11 06:54:35 2022
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2022 08:54:35 +0200
Subject: [ExI] Trans what?
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyfwZUaJ-gyYi4C6-ZObi1FE+89Au_oeWX356XiHTeB8JA@mail.gmail.com>

FYC, enjoy, criticism welcome:

Turing Church newsletter. Trans what? Reflections on transhumanists,
transgenders, and the Ctrl-Left. Review of Martine Rothblatt's "From
Transgender to Transhuman."
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/trans-what

From foozler83 at gmail.com  Fri Aug 12 14:01:27 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2022 09:01:27 -0500
Subject: [ExI] create a meme?
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEbS75RTREjnw20mhPazJ9ORbwNve3ArvDXWEisV6e5E4g@mail.gmail.com>

One of my better ones, I think.  Let's start calling those people who
previously we referred to as 'obliviots' (which was a good term but getting
a little stale), The Mobius People.  They have only one side and it's all
twisted.  bill w
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 13 00:22:43 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2022 17:22:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] drought in jolly olde
Message-ID: <001201d8aeaa$cec48a90$6c4d9fb0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

We are reading about a severe drought in England.  We in California get
severe droughts every few years and so I thought I might offer some insights
from one who has been thru it at least twice before.

 

We have insufficient reservoirs for the population, making it perfectly
clear we need to build more (and the state has the money to do that) but our
environmentalist lobby is very powerful and can usually block that anywhere
it is proposed.  So. the water authorities do what they can: buy water from
farmers in the central valley who grow rice in that parched land by
diverting water from the Sacramento River.  They were doing that since
before there was any problem, so they have water rights for eternity.  So.
we buy water from them.

 

Now we are in a severe drought, so the water authorities are asking
residents to cut back voluntarily on water usage, but this leads to a
paradox.  The first part of the cut is easy: just let your lawn die.  But
eventually, if that isn't enough, they say they can mandate water reduction
by law.  I don't know if that is true, but if it is, then a resident is
advised to not cut at all during voluntary water reduction, because what we
use now sets a baseline for the mandatory reduction of that happens.  So we
could just let our lawn die, while those who did that already hafta find the
next 20% reduction, which is waaaay harder to do than the first 20%.

 

So. a period of requested voluntary water reduction may cause more harm than
good, if they say there is a theoretical legal construct which would allow
the state to mandate water reduction.  People who have been here before know
to keep using water at the baseline level, or perhaps increase it, to
establish the level from which the mandate would require reduction.
Following that to its logical conclusion: when voluntary water usage is
requested, a homeowner should immediately increase water usage 20% to
increase the baseline, then if mandates come along and are found to be
legal, one reduces to the previous water use.

 

In the meantime. the state authorized the construction of a new reservoir in
Calusa County.  Score!

 

spike 

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Sat Aug 13 01:47:05 2022
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2022 21:47:05 -0400
Subject: [ExI] drought in jolly olde
In-Reply-To: <001201d8aeaa$cec48a90$6c4d9fb0$@rainier66.com>
References: <001201d8aeaa$cec48a90$6c4d9fb0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbJYqemgW5n5eA6=kZnuOkwmvcxd_GC-Z_00QkwhFqLQ7w@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Aug 12, 2022, 8:25 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> So? a period of requested voluntary water reduction may cause more harm
> than good, if they say there is a theoretical legal construct which would
> allow the state to mandate water reduction.  People who have been here
> before know to keep using water at the baseline level, or perhaps increase
> it, to establish the level from which the mandate would require reduction.
> Following that to its logical conclusion: when voluntary water usage is
> requested, a homeowner should immediately increase water usage 20% to
> increase the baseline, then if mandates come along and are found to be
> legal, one reduces to the previous water use.
>

Also start breeding snakes/rats for the bounty? ;)

>
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sat Aug 13 02:54:02 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2022 19:54:02 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Neuromorphic Chips
Message-ID: <20220812195402.Horde.jN5AyrTkB-36fX-o_gvr1ut@sollegro.com>


Implementing neural networks as hardware on chips could do for  
training AI what ASICS did for bitcoin mining. Neuromorphic chips have  
a lot of potential IMO. Why simulate what you can instead reverse  
engineer?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y

----------------------------
Abstract

Neuromorphic computing technologies will be important for the future  
of computing, but much of the work in neuromorphic computing has  
focused on hardware development. Here, we review recent results in  
neuromorphic computing algorithms and applications. We highlight  
characteristics of neuromorphic computing technologies that make them  
attractive for the future of computing and we discuss opportunities  
for future development of algorithms and applications on these systems.
----------------------------

In his recent Frontiers in Neuroscience article about phenomenal  
consciousness being mediated by the complex EM fields of the brain,  
Colin Hales wrote:

"The creation of chip materials able to express EM fields structurally  
identical to those produced by neurons can be used to construct  
artificial neurons that replicate neuron signal processing through  
allowing the actual, natural EM fields to naturally interact in the  
manner they do in the brain, thereby replicating the same kind of  
signaling and signal processing (computation). This kind of in silico  
empirical approach is simply missing from the science." (Hales &  
Ericson, 2022)

So Colin, it appears that the neuromorphic chips and computer  
architecture described in the Nature Computational Science article is  
exactly what you were suggesting right? So if these novel neuromorphic  
AI work as expected, would you believe one of these new machines to  
posses phenomenal consciousness or 1PP?

Stuart LaForge



From giulio at gmail.com  Sat Aug 13 05:19:32 2022
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 07:19:32 +0200
Subject: [ExI] A conversation with Howard Bloom
Message-ID: <CAKTCJyc6WAvyLwW2mEdMxX1gi0-5uBVWiDV80bvaY8WfhUnU1w@mail.gmail.com>

Turing Church podcast. A conversation with Howard Bloom. Spaceflight,
NASA, Elon Musk, China, culture, media, physics, universal evolution.
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/podcast-a-conversation-with-howard

This is an audio-only podcast that includes my list of questions to
Howard and comments. The video is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRbv6g6p908

From brent.allsop at gmail.com  Sat Aug 13 14:14:36 2022
From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 08:14:36 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Neuromorphic Chips
In-Reply-To: <20220812195402.Horde.jN5AyrTkB-36fX-o_gvr1ut@sollegro.com>
References: <20220812195402.Horde.jN5AyrTkB-36fX-o_gvr1ut@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <CAK7-onudtnYPpa-_dH8LV+2Fp4cYDbEdq7s_TXqV4jN1Ubp_gg@mail.gmail.com>

Very interesting.



Stuart asks Colin:



?So if these novel neuromorphic
AI work as expected, would you believe one of these new machines to
possess phenomenal consciousness or 1PP??



I think it is a possibility that some of this stuff could be running
directly on the intrinsic phenomenal qualities of the physics, and am
looking forward to hearing Colin?s thoughts on this.



Collin talks about the computation being done with ?Natural EM fields?,
which are not included in the list of stuff used in this article, but that
could just be an oversight?



?All of the aforementioned large-scale neuromorphic computers are
silicon-based and implemented using conventional complementary metal oxide
semiconductor technology; however, there is a tremendous amount of research
in the neuromorphic community on developing new types of materials for
neuromorphic implementations, such as phase-change, ferroelectric,
non-filamentary, topological insulators or channel-doped biomembranes28
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR28>,29
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR29>,30
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR30>. One popular
approach in the literature is using memristors as the fundamental device to
have resistive memory to collocate processing and memory31
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR31>,32
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR32>, but other
types of devices have also been used to implement neuromorphic computers,
including optoelectronic devices10
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y#ref-CR10>. Each device
and material used to implement neuromorphic computers has unique operating
characteristics, such as how fast they operate, their energy consumption
and the level of resemblance to biology. The diversity of devices and
materials used to implement neuromorphic hardware today offers the
opportunity to customize the properties required for a given application.?



As they point out, all of this different physical stuff has different
intrinsic physical properties and behaviors.  The behavior of Intrinsic
phenomenal qualities of physics like redness, could be abstractly
described, as all the above different physics are being abstractly
described.  But without subjective dictionaries, you can?t know the
qualities you are describing.  In order to know the intrinsic qualities of
the physical stuff you are describing, you must directly apprehend it as it
is computationally bound, possibly done via any of these physical methods,
into your consciousness, so you, too can subjectively directly apprehend
the physical qualities being abstractly described, together with the rest
of your directly apprehended phenomenal conscious knowledge.


Note: Understanding that there are two ways to gain knowledge about the
intrinsic properties of physics, as described in this section of our video
<https://canonizer.com/videos/consciousness/?chapter=differentiate_reality_knowledge&t=302>
is a prerequisite to knowing what I'm attempting to say, above.





On Fri, Aug 12, 2022 at 8:54 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Implementing neural networks as hardware on chips could do for
> training AI what ASICS did for bitcoin mining. Neuromorphic chips have
> a lot of potential IMO. Why simulate what you can instead reverse
> engineer?
>
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y
>
> ----------------------------
> Abstract
>
> Neuromorphic computing technologies will be important for the future
> of computing, but much of the work in neuromorphic computing has
> focused on hardware development. Here, we review recent results in
> neuromorphic computing algorithms and applications. We highlight
> characteristics of neuromorphic computing technologies that make them
> attractive for the future of computing and we discuss opportunities
> for future development of algorithms and applications on these systems.
> ----------------------------
>
> In his recent Frontiers in Neuroscience article about phenomenal
> consciousness being mediated by the complex EM fields of the brain,
> Colin Hales wrote:
>
> "The creation of chip materials able to express EM fields structurally
> identical to those produced by neurons can be used to construct
> artificial neurons that replicate neuron signal processing through
> allowing the actual, natural EM fields to naturally interact in the
> manner they do in the brain, thereby replicating the same kind of
> signaling and signal processing (computation). This kind of in silico
> empirical approach is simply missing from the science." (Hales &
> Ericson, 2022)
>
> So Colin, it appears that the neuromorphic chips and computer
> architecture described in the Nature Computational Science article is
> exactly what you were suggesting right? So if these novel neuromorphic
> AI work as expected, would you believe one of these new machines to
> posses phenomenal consciousness or 1PP?
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From avant at sollegro.com  Sat Aug 13 16:52:27 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 09:52:27 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <mailman.150.1660400101.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <20220813095227.Horde.ruH4Z7gLP88ppgqFERl_TZ6@sollegro.com>


Quoting Spike and BillK:

>
> Message: 5
> Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 21:09:31 +0100
> From: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
> To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
> Subject: Re: [ExI] is this cool or what?
> Message-ID:
> 	<CAL_armhU3ink2fqYy0GCs5+35wER2nOvkJu=1D19ucmK2HedJQ at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
>
> On Mon, 8 Aug 2022 at 20:04, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> I have half a mind to try to make one of these bubble ring  
>> chambers.  Perhaps a prole could figure out a way to make multiple  
>> colliding rings and such, then create video, put it on the  
>> internet, sell ad space, make a buttload.
>>
>> spike
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>
> Now, now.  Remember Spike's Rule?
> The search term you want is 'toroidal bubble' or 'vortex bubble'.
>
> <https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/11/3978532.htm>
> Blow underwater bubble rings (like dolphins do)
>
> <https://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/underwater-vortex-ring-generator-video>
> Make an underwater vortex ring generator
>
> <https://www.math.toronto.edu/~drorbn/Gallery/KnottedObjects/ToroidalGlassBubble.html>
> A toroidal bubble in glass
>
> Vortex bubbles have been around for a while.........

Now fellas, allow me to play dolphins' advocate here:

For the record, the earliest video on YouTube about bubble rings is 15  
years old and clearly shows that my clients, the dolphins have  
priority here and were the first to render said invention into practice.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5us-v4bntP8

This is further evidenced by my clients' exhibiting similar behavior  
in the wild.

https://youtu.be/X-1XVoucjQA?t=77

Therefore my clients, the dolphins demand that you cease and desist  
this notion that you humans invented bubble rings. Otherwise my  
clients will sue you for a butt-load of mackerel. And trust me, you  
don't want to get sued under the sea because undersea lawsuits suck;  
you get salt in your suit. ;)

Stuart LaForge






From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 13 17:10:51 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 10:10:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] is this cool or what?
In-Reply-To: <20220813095227.Horde.ruH4Z7gLP88ppgqFERl_TZ6@sollegro.com>
References: <mailman.150.1660400101.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <20220813095227.Horde.ruH4Z7gLP88ppgqFERl_TZ6@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <00db01d8af37$a4397280$ecac5780$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] is this cool or what?


Quoting Spike and BillK:

>
> Message: 5
> Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2022 21:09:31 +0100
> From: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
...
>> I have half a mind to try to make one of these bubble ring chambers.  
>> Perhaps a prole could figure out a way to make multiple colliding 
>> rings and such, then create video, put it on the internet, sell ad 
>> space, make a buttload.
>>
>> spike
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>
> Now, now.  Remember Spike's Rule?
> The search term you want is 'toroidal bubble' or 'vortex bubble'.
...
>
>> Vortex bubbles have been around for a while.........

>...Now fellas, allow me to play dolphins' advocate here...

...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5us-v4bntP8

They almost look like they are using the bubble rings as a toy.  If you
watch, it looks like a dolphin blew a bubble ring, then subsequently shooped
up some of the air.  I can't explain how else the ring looks like it
decreased in size.

Orcas are cousins to the dolphins.  They blow bubbles as a tool, to confuse
and herd schools of fish, which they then devour.

>... And trust me, you don't want to get sued under the sea because undersea
lawsuits suck; you get salt in your suit. ;)

Stuart LaForge


It's worse than that Stuart.  They stack the jury with dolphins.  A
land-based mammal hasn't a chance.

spike



From avant at sollegro.com  Mon Aug 15 13:09:13 2022
From: avant at sollegro.com (Stuart LaForge)
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2022 06:09:13 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Spermbots
Message-ID: <20220815060913.Horde.FjcADA-PaN0qalxqrIZfz61@sollegro.com>


I am not so sure sperm bots are something we need, (survival of the  
fittest and all), but the fact that nanotechnology has progressed to  
to the point where we have sperm-sized machines that we can control to  
manipulate individual human cells is mind-blowing. I wonder if Gina  
Miller is still on the list?

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2016/acs-presspac-january-13-2016/spermbots-could-help-women-trying-to-conceive-video.html

Stuart LaForge



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug 15 13:49:49 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2022 06:49:49 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Spermbots
In-Reply-To: <20220815060913.Horde.FjcADA-PaN0qalxqrIZfz61@sollegro.com>
References: <20220815060913.Horde.FjcADA-PaN0qalxqrIZfz61@sollegro.com>
Message-ID: <003601d8b0ad$e38821d0$aa986570$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat

>... I wonder if Gina Miller is still on the list?

https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2016/acs-presspac-jan
uary-13-2016/spermbots-could-help-women-trying-to-conceive-video.html

Stuart LaForge


_______________________________________________





Hi Stuart, I went looking for Gina about 4 yrs ago.  Her links were still
there but appear to be inactive.  I just went back and found the most recent
change appears to be over ten years old:

http://www.nanogirl.com/

If anyone here knows or has contact with Nanogirl, do let her know her old
friends miss her and hope she drops by for an online visit.

spike


From atymes at gmail.com  Mon Aug 15 17:45:12 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2022 10:45:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Chemical representation of mental exhaustion
Message-ID: <CALAdGNShyeWb-m-uanEOMZsfYtaeTM6v+5yAyUj-krV8EYzRDg@mail.gmail.com>

Brent in particular, but also anyone looking into chemical representations
of mental states:
https://www.science.org/content/article/mentally-exhausted-study-blames-buildup-key-chemical-brain

It's not redness, but does this count as evidence that my tiredness is the
same as your tiredness (save for which brain it is in)?
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From col.hales at gmail.com  Tue Aug 16 04:04:25 2022
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2022 14:04:25 +1000
Subject: [ExI] Get
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJmdsKTPDeeMeqd1rGBr-a=R08AA3-=XOokw6pdf1U0y7g@mail.gmail.com>

Roberts & Robertson 2012
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From col.hales at gmail.com  Thu Aug 18 01:55:19 2022
From: col.hales at gmail.com (Colin Hales)
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:55:19 +1000
Subject: [ExI] Fwd:  Neuromorphic Chips
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJk6DLsJmP4OAzARsc90xzOdWR2Q8RXufoc4oLDNx1O=Ug@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20220812195402.Horde.jN5AyrTkB-36fX-o_gvr1ut@sollegro.com>
 <CAGHyZJk6DLsJmP4OAzARsc90xzOdWR2Q8RXufoc4oLDNx1O=Ug@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAGHyZJmpV9SLS56Sdp5gtF=9WhJi90dUFGsR4kKyvuy-NRwREw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Aug 13, 2022, 12:55 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Implementing neural networks as hardware on chips could do for
> training AI what ASICS did for bitcoin mining. Neuromorphic chips have
> a lot of potential IMO. Why simulate what you can instead reverse
> engineer?
>
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y
>
> ----------------------------k
> Abstract
>
> Neuromorphic computing technologies will be important for the future
> of computing, but much of the work in neuromorphic computing has
> focused on hardware development. Here, we review recent results in
> neuromorphic computing algorithms and applications. We highlight
> characteristics of neuromorphic computing technologies that make them
> attractive for the future of computing and we discuss opportunities
> for future development of algorithms and applications on these systems.
> ----------------------------
>
> In his recent Frontiers in Neuroscience article about phenomenal
> consciousness being mediated by the complex EM fields of the brain,
> Colin Hales wrote:
>
> "The creation of chip materials able to express EM fields structurally
> identical to those produced by neurons can be used to construct
> artificial neurons that replicate neuron signal processing through
> allowing the actual, natural EM fields to naturally interact in the
> manner they do in the brain, thereby replicating the same kind of
> signaling and signal processing (computation). This kind of in silico
> empirical approach is simply missing from the science." (Hales &
> Ericson, 2022)
>
> So Colin, it appears that the neuromorphic chips and computer
> architecture described in the Nature Computational Science article is
> exactly what you were suggesting right? So if these novel neuromorphic
> AI work as expected, would you believe one of these new machines to
> posses phenomenal consciousness or 1PP?
>
> Stuart LaForge
>
>
>
> Neuromorphic computers are not reverse engineering the brain. They are a
> highly parallel, fast, low energy implementation of a model of properties
> of brain signalling. None of the brain's signalling physics is involved.


A chip that reverse-engineers the brain's function is one that literally
uses the physics the brain uses, in inorganic form. Nowhere else in
science, EVER, has 'reverse engineering of a natural phenomenon been the
creation of a computer-explored abstract model of the nature. I have called
such a reverse engineered chip a  'neuromimetic' chip. There's a detailed
discussion of it in TechRXiv. https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.13298750.v4


The likelihood is that you won't be able to fully appreciate the
difference, but it is real and untried.

I am building a 50,000+ scale version of one patch of membrane with one big
ugly 'ion channel' in the middle of it. It produces a near-field that
innately expresses the voltages modelled by the neuromohic chip. No model.
No software. Just physics. If you place these fields inside each other they
compute cognition. Literally. That is replication (reverse engineering) of
brain signalling. It will be the first ever attempt to do so.

Maybe then it'll be clear and the implications can finally be properly
examined.

I am calibrating the sensor positioner at the moment. Attached is a picture
I hope will get through the byte limit of posting here:

This endless argument will end before the end of the year.
65 years of theoretical science being mistaken for empirical work has to
stop.

Cheers,

Colin
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From brent.allsop at gmail.com  Thu Aug 18 03:24:07 2022
From: brent.allsop at gmail.com (Brent Allsop)
Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2022 21:24:07 -0600
Subject: [ExI] Fwd: Neuromorphic Chips
In-Reply-To: <CAGHyZJmpV9SLS56Sdp5gtF=9WhJi90dUFGsR4kKyvuy-NRwREw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <20220812195402.Horde.jN5AyrTkB-36fX-o_gvr1ut@sollegro.com>
 <CAGHyZJk6DLsJmP4OAzARsc90xzOdWR2Q8RXufoc4oLDNx1O=Ug@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAGHyZJmpV9SLS56Sdp5gtF=9WhJi90dUFGsR4kKyvuy-NRwREw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAK7-onum8h4pMW4oh6yCxGVy=fHdwrfOSwikuZw9p3T6BPZ0uw@mail.gmail.com>

Hi Colin,


Help me understand what you mean by ?compute cognition?.



To me, consciousness experience is composed of intrinsic qualities like
redness and greenness.  To me, cognition is a subset of this.  For example,
the naming of a redness quality to be ?red? and thinking about redness
representing 650 nm light, would be what I consider to be cognitive tasks,
this being a less phenomenal part of consciousness than the qualitative
experiences of something like redness, itself.  So, would I be correct in
assuming that when you talk about cognition computing, you are talking
about something categorically different than phenomenal computation on or
composed of intrinsic qualities like redness and greenness or any other
phenomenal quality?  In other words, it seems to me that nothing you are
doing will give us any insight as to what anyone's consciousness is
phenomenally like, right?



On Wed, Aug 17, 2022 at 7:57 PM Colin Hales via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> On Sat, Aug 13, 2022, 12:55 PM Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>
>> Implementing neural networks as hardware on chips could do for
>> training AI what ASICS did for bitcoin mining. Neuromorphic chips have
>> a lot of potential IMO. Why simulate what you can instead reverse
>> engineer?
>>
>> https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y
>>
>> ----------------------------k
>> Abstract
>>
>> Neuromorphic computing technologies will be important for the future
>> of computing, but much of the work in neuromorphic computing has
>> focused on hardware development. Here, we review recent results in
>> neuromorphic computing algorithms and applications. We highlight
>> characteristics of neuromorphic computing technologies that make them
>> attractive for the future of computing and we discuss opportunities
>> for future development of algorithms and applications on these systems.
>> ----------------------------
>>
>> In his recent Frontiers in Neuroscience article about phenomenal
>> consciousness being mediated by the complex EM fields of the brain,
>> Colin Hales wrote:
>>
>> "The creation of chip materials able to express EM fields structurally
>> identical to those produced by neurons can be used to construct
>> artificial neurons that replicate neuron signal processing through
>> allowing the actual, natural EM fields to naturally interact in the
>> manner they do in the brain, thereby replicating the same kind of
>> signaling and signal processing (computation). This kind of in silico
>> empirical approach is simply missing from the science." (Hales &
>> Ericson, 2022)
>>
>> So Colin, it appears that the neuromorphic chips and computer
>> architecture described in the Nature Computational Science article is
>> exactly what you were suggesting right? So if these novel neuromorphic
>> AI work as expected, would you believe one of these new machines to
>> posses phenomenal consciousness or 1PP?
>>
>> Stuart LaForge
>>
>>
>>
>> Neuromorphic computers are not reverse engineering the brain. They are a
>> highly parallel, fast, low energy implementation of a model of properties
>> of brain signalling. None of the brain's signalling physics is involved.
>
>
> A chip that reverse-engineers the brain's function is one that literally
> uses the physics the brain uses, in inorganic form. Nowhere else in
> science, EVER, has 'reverse engineering of a natural phenomenon been the
> creation of a computer-explored abstract model of the nature. I have called
> such a reverse engineered chip a  'neuromimetic' chip. There's a detailed
> discussion of it in TechRXiv.
> https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.13298750.v4
>
> The likelihood is that you won't be able to fully appreciate the
> difference, but it is real and untried.
>
> I am building a 50,000+ scale version of one patch of membrane with one
> big ugly 'ion channel' in the middle of it. It produces a near-field that
> innately expresses the voltages modelled by the neuromohic chip. No model.
> No software. Just physics. If you place these fields inside each other they
> compute cognition. Literally. That is replication (reverse engineering) of
> brain signalling. It will be the first ever attempt to do so.
>
> Maybe then it'll be clear and the implications can finally be properly
> examined.
>
> I am calibrating the sensor positioner at the moment. Attached is a
> picture I hope will get through the byte limit of posting here:
>
> This endless argument will end before the end of the year.
> 65 years of theoretical science being mistaken for empirical work has to
> stop.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Colin
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 20 12:51:22 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 05:51:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] the view from 40 yrs ago
Message-ID: <002001d8b493$8dd88880$a9899980$@rainier66.com>

 

Remarkable:

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1560780183824629760

 

spike

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From jasonresch at gmail.com  Sat Aug 20 13:55:11 2022
From: jasonresch at gmail.com (Jason Resch)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 09:55:11 -0400
Subject: [ExI] the view from 40 yrs ago
In-Reply-To: <002001d8b493$8dd88880$a9899980$@rainier66.com>
References: <002001d8b493$8dd88880$a9899980$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CA+BCJUjyYVw98GbKYrowbMATzUQmOq=BDcPhh0tz6N3J7sk5aA@mail.gmail.com>

Nice, I hadn't seen that one before. You might appreciate these:

https://youtu.be/rpq5ZmANp0k

https://youtu.be/wC3E2qTCIY8

https://youtu.be/08dTQEReVno

Jason

On Sat, Aug 20, 2022, 8:52 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
> Remarkable:
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/i/status/1560780183824629760
>
>
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 20 16:06:59 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 09:06:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] the view from 40 yrs ago
In-Reply-To: <CA+BCJUjyYVw98GbKYrowbMATzUQmOq=BDcPhh0tz6N3J7sk5aA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <002001d8b493$8dd88880$a9899980$@rainier66.com>
 <CA+BCJUjyYVw98GbKYrowbMATzUQmOq=BDcPhh0tz6N3J7sk5aA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <009a01d8b4ae$e1680730$a4381590$@rainier66.com>

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Jason Resch <jasonresch at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] the view from 40 yrs ago

 

Nice, I hadn't seen that one before. You might appreciate these:

 

https://youtu.be/rpq5ZmANp0k

 

https://youtu.be/wC3E2qTCIY8

 

https://youtu.be/08dTQEReVno

 

Jason

 

 

 

Excellent Jason, thanks!  All three of these were right on.

 

Aside having nothing to do with the original topic but these links reminded me of it: Arthur Clarke was my favorite writer as I cheerfully squandered my tragically misspent youth.  One thing I could always count on Clarke to do is to fumble the ending.  He spun such marvelous yarns, but never seemed to know how to write a satisfactory ending for any of them.  Perhaps Songs of Distant Earth was the closest he ever came to writing a satisfactory ending.  

 

Clarke was so unlike Orson Scott Card, who really finished up with a flourish.  Clarke?s endings were always such a disappointment, a young person would like to co-author with him, a Pournelle and Niven arrangement.  Clarke could set up the book, then a group of talented young authors could write a cool endings, Clarke could pick his favorite and work it in.

 

For instance? consider Rendezvous with Rama.  One almost gets the feeling that Clarke needed a paycheck, or just got tired of writing it, then tacked on that wacky nonsense at the end, damn.

 

Suppose you could Clarke?s play pin the tail on the tale game.  Keep all the cool stuff Clarke wrote: Jimmy Pak, Bill Norton and the others do their thing.  Then? the boarding crew notices there is a slight net acceleration.  Instead of violating Newton?s third (oh Arthur, how could you write such goofy a thing?) the crew goes outside and discovers a high-velocity particle beam responsible for Rama?s acceleration.  They do some calculations, recognize the acceleration is gradually increasing, realize they better get back to the mothership soon or they will never see it again, they reluctantly leave, Dr. Perera still receives that cool ?The Ramans do everything in threes? premonition that allows Clarke to get his paycheck while simultaneously setting us up for part 2 of the trilogy.

 

But I digress.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Sat, Aug 20, 2022, 8:52 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 

Remarkable:

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1560780183824629760

 

spike

_______________________________________________
extropy-chat mailing list
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> 
http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 20 17:10:32 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 10:10:32 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eating bugs
Message-ID: <00b901d8b4b7$c211c930$46355b90$@rainier66.com>

 

You may recall from a coupla years ago when the giant sea bugs were in the
science news.  We suspected those things were down there somewhere, because
pill bugs had to evolve somewhere, and it wasn't on land.  Pill bugs are
land-based crustaceans.

 

Now they have found them in the Gulf of Mexico:

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-deep-sea-giant-isopod-has-been-discovered
-in-the-gulf-of-mexico

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1EXdpH3XY8

 

 

With Bill Gates urging the world to eat bugs, I had an idea.  If we could
grow enough of them, perhaps we could get the hogs to devour the revolting
bastards.  Hogs will eat anything that moves.  We could feed our sea bugs
with garbage perhaps, waste food of any kind, then the sea bugs with their
open-minded digestive systems could turn that garbage into bug meat, hogs
could turn that bug meat into hog meat,  grocery store turns that hog meat
into money, good to go, ja?  We'll make a cubic buttload.

 

spike

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sat Aug 20 17:55:05 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 18:55:05 +0100
Subject: [ExI] eating bugs
In-Reply-To: <00b901d8b4b7$c211c930$46355b90$@rainier66.com>
References: <00b901d8b4b7$c211c930$46355b90$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armha6MCGaab92X_hAc_=3x=TwoSAMtvzj6Mza6M4_rdKTw@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, 20 Aug 2022 at 18:13, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> You may recall from a coupla years ago when the giant sea bugs were in the science news.  We suspected those things were down there somewhere, because pill bugs had to evolve somewhere, and it wasn?t on land.  Pill bugs are land-based crustaceans.
>
> Now they have found them in the Gulf of Mexico:
>
> https://www.sciencealert.com/a-new-deep-sea-giant-isopod-has-been-discovered-in-the-gulf-of-mexico
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1EXdpH3XY8
>
> With Bill Gates urging the world to eat bugs, I had an idea.  If we could grow enough of them, perhaps we could get the hogs to devour the revolting bastards.  Hogs will eat anything that moves.  We could feed our sea bugs with garbage perhaps, waste food of any kind, then the sea bugs with their open-minded digestive systems could turn that garbage into bug meat, hogs could turn that bug meat into hog meat,  grocery store turns that hog meat into money, good to go, ja?  We?ll make a cubic buttload.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Not necessary, Spike. Just pop along to your favourite Sushi
restaurant and they'll serve one up for you!
Yummy!  :)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54m4SDJiL6U&t=205s>


BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 20 20:52:36 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 13:52:36 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eating bugs
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armha6MCGaab92X_hAc_=3x=TwoSAMtvzj6Mza6M4_rdKTw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00b901d8b4b7$c211c930$46355b90$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armha6MCGaab92X_hAc_=3x=TwoSAMtvzj6Mza6M4_rdKTw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010b01d8b4d6$c7b68be0$5723a3a0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat

>
> With Bill Gates urging the world to eat bugs, I had an idea.  If we could grow enough of them, perhaps we could get the hogs to devour the revolting bastards...  We?ll make a cubic buttload.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...Not necessary, Spike. Just pop along to your favourite Sushi restaurant and they'll serve one up for you!
Yummy!  :)
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54m4SDJiL6U&t=205s>


BillK

_______________________________________________

Thx BillK, after I viewed the video, I realize what is wrong with the idea.  Mammals go around on land, build up all that tasty muscle, fish all need to outswim each other to eat and not be eaten, building up all that muscle.  Giant sea bugs, neither.  They rely on armor to not be eaten, and just go around finding stuff on the sea bottom, such as alligators (?) so they don't build muscle and would likely not have enough meat in one of them to be a break-even for the hog.

But no worries, I thought of another use for them.

Back in the old days before people really knew much about radioactivity, they kinda thought it just amped up everything six orders of magnitude the way it did the atomic bomb.  So Gilligan ate the spinach they grew from radioactive seeds, gets really strong, Peter Parker gets bitten by radioactive spider, you know what happens next.  This misunderstanding sets us up for some epic gags.

For instance... get about four capybaras, put them out in the back of your "research facility."  Get everyone in cahoots except one hapless prole.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCLRfSWi0lc

You run in, tell them "Oh SHIT!  Those rats we fed the radioactive cheese grew to enormous size, and broke down the fence!"  The others plus the one prole run out there, see the four capys, you shriek: Four are still here, so 20 of them got away!  They will infest the city!

Have cameras set up to watch the panic on the one guy's face, epic gag.

OK cool, now you can pull the same trick with these giant pill bugs.  

But wait, there's more.  Using trick photography, we make a video of an actual giant pill bug, make it look like it is devouring a great white shark or an orca on the sea bottom, but the meal is really only a model, so the pill bug appears to be about 10 meters long.  Victim is shown some pill bugs you are experimenting on by feeding them radioactive something.  You go into the next room, shriek like a girl scout, he runs in, sees the giant pill bug, oh my GOD!  

Then if he falls for that gag, you go on: Oh NO!  Some of these radioactive pill bugs got away!  Let's see if we can find them on the video monitor!

You rig the tape to show the fake video of your giant pill bug which appears to be 10 meters.  You tell your terrified victim: We're all gonna die.

Then everyone gets a big laugh.  We make a YouTube channel, sell ads, make a buttload.

spike



From atymes at gmail.com  Sat Aug 20 20:58:12 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2022 13:58:12 -0700
Subject: [ExI] eating bugs
In-Reply-To: <010b01d8b4d6$c7b68be0$5723a3a0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00b901d8b4b7$c211c930$46355b90$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armha6MCGaab92X_hAc_=3x=TwoSAMtvzj6Mza6M4_rdKTw@mail.gmail.com>
 <010b01d8b4d6$c7b68be0$5723a3a0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CALAdGNQLTZ5omdUi3=eTuK-SddboJy9zVWXcFUktmAczTj5ssA@mail.gmail.com>

On Sat, Aug 20, 2022 at 1:54 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> You run in, tell them "Oh SHIT!  Those rats we fed the radioactive cheese
> grew to enormous size, and broke down the fence!"  The others plus the one
> prole run out there, see the four capys, you shriek: Four are still here,
> so 20 of them got away!  They will infest the city!
>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYHg8vJSz-Q
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From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Aug 23 17:25:43 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:25:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
Message-ID: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>

 

Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity, might
find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and people
I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.

 

This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm activity in
the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.

 

We are on track to set a new record if we don't get a named storm in the
next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them
together didn't amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be
the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.

 

The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently
organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the
longest span between named storms. 

 

https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1

 

 

 



 

 

I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my recently
explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to me that a
Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic hurricane
prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman covariance
matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or ocean surface
temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the wrong way,
which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the covariance
matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman filter
predictive confidence goes. down.

 

Whoops.  That wasn't supposta happen.

 

In any case. lotta times science doesn't move forward until a favored old
theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some excitement
outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!

 

spike

 

 

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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 09:36:53 2022
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:36:53 +0800
Subject: [ExI] Defying gravity: How Dubai's Museum of the Future was built
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2gyVDp0Exze5boC31-m0-PKzUZTssePK=1pD0x4j2uxg@mail.gmail.com>

Most museums show exhibits from the past or the present, so what exactly is
a museum of the future?
"Each of the floors represents the future of healthcare, transportation,
aviation, smart cities, government services, space travel, you name it,"
explains Shaun Killa, design partner of Dubai-based Killa Design, the
architecture studio behind the building. "But it's the future as we
understand it for maybe the next two to three years."
The green mound that the Museum of the Future sits upon represents Earth,
with the main building symbolizing humanity. But the void at the center
represents what we don't yet know about the future. In other words, the
unknown.
"The people who seek the unknown are the people who invent and discover
things," says Killa. "These people will constantly replenish the museum
over time, so there's a perpetual continuum because of the unknown. That's
why the void is there -- you have our understanding of the future, and then
you have something that isn't there."
It's existential stuff.
What that currently translates to is a collection of interactive
experiences that takes visitors into a vision of the near future.
In the cavernous lobby, a penguin-shaped drone swims through the air to a
futuristic soundtrack of bleeps and bloops. An elevator, masquerading as a
spacecraft with screens for windows, shoots visitors upwards on a
four-minute flight to the OSS Hope space station, 600 kilometers above the
earth and 50 years into the future.
There's a library of 4,500 animal DNA codes to "collect" on smart devices.
The future tech area has a touch of "Black Mirror" about it, ranging from
the frankly terrifying CyberDog to under-skin payment chips,
virus-resistant clothing and a falcon-shaped robot designed to control real
bird populations.But the real beauty is the space itself, and the museum's
now immediately recognizable shape. "It needed to be futuristic, and needed
a sense of direction," says Killa. "If it had been a perfect oval, it would
have been stagnant." The torus form and off-center void give a feeling of
perpetual motion. "There's a sense that it's constantly in movement. The
future is always moving, and you've got to keep up with it."
Defying gravity: How Dubai's Museum of the Future was built | CNN Travel
<https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/museum-of-the-future-dubai/index.html>
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 09:39:22 2022
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:39:22 +0800
Subject: [ExI] Saudi Arabia unveils designs for 106-mile-long vertical city
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy0k0wXw9SAi5br-rm=okGT1aya=+ZsZ=eh6v-M5u=N0Vg@mail.gmail.com>

"Saudi Arabia has unveiled designs for a one-building city that could
potentially house nine million people near the Red Sea. Critics cast doubt
on the feasibility of the project, whilst some called the vision
"dystopian."

Video: Saudi Arabia reveals designs for THE LINE, a 106-mile-long vertical
city - CNN Video
<https://edition.cnn.com/videos/architecture/2022/07/27/saudi-arabia-the-line-lon-orig-tp.cnn>
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 09:41:59 2022
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:41:59 +0800
Subject: [ExI] The High-Stakes Race to Engineer New Psychedelic Drugs
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy1CZeHfPZTUVcRi04oyA4gv6gvEuHCDAqacK3vsZFDn1w@mail.gmail.com>

"We are, as you have probably read, in the throes of a ?psychedelic
renaissance.? Compelling clinical work conducted at New York University,
Imperial College, Johns Hopkins, and elsewhere showed that long-outlawed
drugs such as N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT), LSD, and psilocybin have
terrific potential for treating everything from addiction to Alzheimer?s to
end-of-life anxiety. Pharmaceutical companies
<https://www.wired.com/tag/pharmaceutical-industry/> have taken note. In
2020 the fledgling psychedelic industry was predicted to balloon to $6.9
billion by 2027?a year later, that estimate increased to over $10 billion.
In September 2020, Compass became the first company of its kind to trade on
a major stock exchange, debuting on the Nasdaq at an estimated value of
more than $1 billion.

So far, none of these companies has brought a psychedelic drug to market,
but the thinking is that, through what the clinical literature calls
a??mystical-type experience??a psychedelic trip that produces feelings of
joy, peace, interconnectedness, and transcendence?patients can confront the
root causes of various mental maladies. ?I don?t want to use the word *cure*,
but psychedelics can offer long-term healing,? says Florian Brand, the
cofounder and CEO of a Berlin-based biotech incubator called Atai Life
Sciences, which invested in Compass Pathways. ?We have put a lot of money
into actually exploring this hypothesis.?
The High-Stakes Race to Engineer New Psychedelic Drugs | WIRED
<https://www.wired.com/story/race-to-engineer-new-psychedelic-drugs/>
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 09:47:00 2022
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:47:00 +0800
Subject: [ExI] YouTuber Gives Snake Legs, Defies God
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy0vxDMSzokLt3uoL9=1uA7Mz+tUxFZjFaR3-KMZNC9aOw@mail.gmail.com>

"Do snakes want their legs back? That was the question Allen Pan, a
YouTuber who specialises in making strange inventions, set out recently to
answer.

Snakes, the slithering danger noodles of the animal kingdom, once had legs
like their limbed relatives, lizards. It?s expected that snakes walked the
Earth about 150 million years ago
<https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/10/20/498575639/how-snakes-lost-their-legs>
instead
of slithering along it.

But legs were evolved out, despite some snakes still having remnants of them
<https://a-z-animals.com/blog/do-snakes-have-legs/>. Actually, it?s
speculated that snakes have two penises to mimic their leg buds
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2014/11/05/scientists-figure-out-why-the-same-signal-grows-two-penises-in-snakes-and-only-one-in-humans/>,
so it?s an interesting bit of evolution, to say the least.

But do snakes *want *to walk on legs? Well, Pan set out to solve this
mystery."

YouTuber Gives Snake Legs, Defies God (gizmodo.com.au)
<https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/08/allen-pan-snake-legs/>
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From possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 09:51:48 2022
From: possiblepaths2050 at gmail.com (John Grigg)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:51:48 +0800
Subject: [ExI] MAN WHO LOST $180 MILLION BITCOIN HARD DRIVE 9 YEARS AGO
 STILL TRYING TO DIG THROUGH TRASH
Message-ID: <CAGSKFy2vg-HGxSZgK-WvX0OEDaXf1LG7Ke8o5Jee2V9J4rV6mQ@mail.gmail.com>

Moving on is hard.

"Just ask UK-based IT engineer James Howells, who, almost a decade
ago, accidentally
threw away a hard drive
<https://futurism.com/the-byte/accidentally-buried-bitcoin-landfill> containing
over $180 million worth of Bitcoin ? and is still clinging onto hope that
it's recoverable."

Since early last year
<https://futurism.com/the-byte/accidentally-buried-bitcoin-landfill>,
Howells has been lobbying the Newport city council to let him comb through
all of the landfill's trash in order to find it.

Most recently, he claimed to have secured funding and a top-notch,
trash-digging team to support the hunt ? but as the *BBC *reports
<https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-62381682>, the council has once again
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bitcoin-hard-drive-landfill-newport-council-wales-james-howells-b1787863.html>
rejected
his search citing environmental concerns.

Among claims that his newly-assembled team boasts environmental experts,
Howells' most recent plea to the council outlined plans to incorporate
assistive AI and robot dogs
<https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/02/man-hopes-ai-and-robot-dogs-will-help-recover-150m-in-bitcoin-from-landfill>
in
the effort.

"We've basically got a well-rounded team of various experts, with various
expertise, which, when we all come together, are capable of completing this
task to a very high standard," the IT tech told the *BBC*."
Man Who Lost $180 Million Bitcoin Hard Drive 9 Years Ago Still Trying to
Dig Through Trash (futurism.com)
<https://futurism.com/the-byte/man-lost-million-bitcoin-hard-drive-dig-trash>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 14:15:20 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 15:15:20 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>

On Tue, 23 Aug 2022 at 18:29, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity, might find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and people I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.
> This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm activity in the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.
> We are on track to set a new record if we don?t get a named storm in the next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them together didn?t amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.
> The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the longest span between named storms.
>
> https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1
>
> I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my recently explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to me that a Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic hurricane prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman covariance matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or ocean surface temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the wrong way, which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the covariance matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman filter predictive confidence goes? down.
>
> Whoops.  That wasn?t supposta happen.
>
> In any case? lotta times science doesn?t move forward until a favored old theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some excitement outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!
>
> spike
>
> _______________________________________________


Well, you've heard of the Butterfly Effect,
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
So, out in the garden this morning, I've just had a couple of violent
sneezes that really cleared the dust out of my ears. That could be the
start of a hurricane headed to Florida in the next week or two.  :)
Just wait and see!


BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 14:19:57 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 09:19:57 -0500
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEagD9kPzT7mrGKAMe9yzxZjShWXNjEXOS=d9SAdcJZCJA@mail.gmail.com>

Forget Florida - here in central MS we are expecting 8 to 10 inches of rain
today and it has been raining now for two weeks and another week expected -
at least.  bill w

On Wed, Aug 24, 2022 at 9:18 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Tue, 23 Aug 2022 at 18:29, spike jones via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity,
> might find this interesting.  I follow it because I have a lotta family and
> people I care about who live in Florida, along the east coast.
> > This is an unusual year, currently the 4th lowest Atlantic storm
> activity in the 55 years in which we have had good satellite data.
> > We are on track to set a new record if we don?t get a named storm in the
> next few days.  We had those three nothingburgers in June, all of them
> together didn?t amount to much, then nothing since July 3.  This might be
> the year we set a new record for the longest span between named storms.
> > The graph below is 3 days old and still flat, with nothing currently
> organizing out there, so we are on track for a record-setting year for the
> longest span between named storms.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1561373423154208771/photo/1
> >
> > I am getting even more interested in this field again because of my
> recently explaining to my son how Kalman filtering works.  It occurred to
> me that a Kalman filter could be used to do continuously updated Atlantic
> hurricane prediction.  One of the biggity big correlations in the Kalman
> covariance matrix is the one between hurricane activity and El Nina or
> ocean surface temperature.  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the
> wrong way, which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the
> covariance matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman
> filter predictive confidence goes? down.
> >
> > Whoops.  That wasn?t supposta happen.
> >
> > In any case? lotta times science doesn?t move forward until a favored
> old theory crashes and burns.  So either way, at least we get some
> excitement outta the deal.  Stand by for NEWS!
> >
> > spike
> >
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Well, you've heard of the Butterfly Effect,
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
> So, out in the garden this morning, I've just had a couple of violent
> sneezes that really cleared the dust out of my ears. That could be the
> start of a hurricane headed to Florida in the next week or two.  :)
> Just wait and see!
>
>
> BillK
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 14:59:10 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 15:59:10 +0100
Subject: [ExI] Man makes best friends with a wild Tiger Shark
Message-ID: <CAL_armj2iv+2PuvVm_z4b_5iUd98Zi=nxTHkeDy47mc+OSbhSw@mail.gmail.com>

This wild tiger shark, Emma, has been greeting her favorite diver,
Jim, for 20 years ? and after the pandemic separated them, she was SO
excited to see him again.

<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr_T4Aim6Fw>
3.35 Min Video.

Who knew sharks were affectionate?  !!!

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 24 21:05:18 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 14:05:18 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

On Tue, 23 Aug 2022 at 18:29, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>>... Those of you who follow this sorta thing, Atlantic hurricane activity...  This year, 2022, that correlation is going the wrong way, which means that when we do the feedback loop to update the covariance matrix, that correlation coefficient decreases, so our Kalman filter predictive confidence goes? down.
>
>>... Whoops.  That wasn?t supposta happen.> spike...
>
> _______________________________________________


>...Well, you've heard of the Butterfly Effect, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect>
So, out in the garden this morning, I've just had a couple of violent sneezes that really cleared the dust out of my ears. That could be the start of a hurricane headed to Florida in the next week or two.  :) Just wait and see!


BillK

_______________________________________________


Ah so if we do have a hurricane BillK, you mighta caused it?  The nerve of you!  Unacceptable!

If you look at the current outlook, there is nothing in the Atlantic that is very likely to develop into even a tropical depression in the next 5 days.  We are 7 days from moving into second place for the longest span between named storms and only 9 days from setting a record in satellite times (all years since 1966.)

A new correlation is becoming compelling: the quiet Atlantic with droughts.  I understand it has been a bit dry in Europe this summer.  This makes a sense to me because Atlantic hurricanes would hurl a lotta water into the atmosphere, where it blows generally east and would fall over there somewhere.

BillK, is Jolly Olde having a dry year please?

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 24 21:07:06 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 14:07:06 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAO+xQEagD9kPzT7mrGKAMe9yzxZjShWXNjEXOS=d9SAdcJZCJA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEagD9kPzT7mrGKAMe9yzxZjShWXNjEXOS=d9SAdcJZCJA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <010101d8b7fd$77e98070$67bc8150$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

Forget Florida - here in central MS we are expecting 8 to 10 inches of rain today and it has been raining now for two weeks and another week expected - at least.  bill w

 

WOWsers, 8 to 10 inches in one day!  Billw, if you need to get on outta town for a few days, have you a place to go?  And a way to get there?

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 21:34:54 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 22:34:54 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armjxkRPo5guptr2v38eLJ4FvDiddS9zbjcGAoURWGgX8nA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, 24 Aug 2022 at 22:09, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Ah so if we do have a hurricane BillK, you mighta caused it?  The nerve of you!  Unacceptable!
>
> If you look at the current outlook, there is nothing in the Atlantic that is very likely to develop into even a tropical depression in the next 5 days.  We are 7 days from moving into second place for the longest span between named storms and only 9 days from setting a record in satellite times (all years since 1966.)
>
> A new correlation is becoming compelling: the quiet Atlantic with droughts.  I understand it has been a bit dry in Europe this summer.  This makes a sense to me because Atlantic hurricanes would hurl a lotta water into the atmosphere, where it blows generally east and would fall over there somewhere.
>
> BillK, is Jolly Olde having a dry year please?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Oh, yes!  Same as Europe.  Grass lawns have disappeared, all dried up.
Water restrictions and droughts declared.
Fire risk very high. Record heat temperatures hit this summer.
My suntan is the best for years!  :)


BillK


From foozler83 at gmail.com  Wed Aug 24 22:01:38 2022
From: foozler83 at gmail.com (William Flynn Wallace)
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 17:01:38 -0500
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <010101d8b7fd$77e98070$67bc8150$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <CAO+xQEagD9kPzT7mrGKAMe9yzxZjShWXNjEXOS=d9SAdcJZCJA@mail.gmail.com>
 <010101d8b7fd$77e98070$67bc8150$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAO+xQEZvsQFLB_F8Ori7EpN1jntJw2ns-QUsVLtdXu9V9aLeoA@mail.gmail.com>

There is enough of a hill here for the water to drain.  No sweat. Thanks
for caring   bill and roz

On Wed, Aug 24, 2022 at 4:15 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places
>
>
>
> Forget Florida - here in central MS we are expecting 8 to 10 inches of
> rain today and it has been raining now for two weeks and another week
> expected - at least.  bill w
>
>
>
> WOWsers, 8 to 10 inches in one day!  Billw, if you need to get on outta
> town for a few days, have you a place to go?  And a way to get there?
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 17:42:56 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 10:42:56 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armjxkRPo5guptr2v38eLJ4FvDiddS9zbjcGAoURWGgX8nA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjxkRPo5guptr2v38eLJ4FvDiddS9zbjcGAoURWGgX8nA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <006701d8b8aa$1cea5520$56beff60$@rainier66.com>


...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
...
>
>>... A new correlation is becoming compelling: the quiet Atlantic with
droughts...
>>... BillK, is Jolly Olde having a dry year please?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...Oh, yes!  Same as Europe.  Grass lawns have disappeared, all dried up.
Water restrictions and droughts declared.
Fire risk very high. Record heat temperatures hit this summer.
My suntan is the best for years!  :)


BillK

_______________________________________________


BillK, I am following all this for a reason.  If you are in a hurry, skip to
the second to last paragraph below, which is the point of this rambling
epistle.

When one knows a powerful math tool technique such as Kalman filtering, one
is compelled to find applications for it everywhere just to see how they do.
I am fooling with a Kalman filter to predict Accumulated Cyclonic Energy
(ACE)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

but while I was doing that... I realized there is something else hiding in
plain sight which is even more important.

It is cool to predict ACE for insurance purposes (the insurance companies
need to estimate how much to charge in order to make money (and hurricanes
are exciting (so they sell a lotta headlines and ad clicks))) but what about
predicting drought?  Those who have lived in Florida already know that if
one goes a whole season without a hurricane anywhere near (within a coupla
hundred miles for instance) then that will be a really dry fall and winter,
which has consequences.  

For Floridians, a direct hit by a hurricane is a really bad thing, but in
general a hurricane nearby is a good thing.  Any hurricane which doesn't
wreck your town is good, just as in California any small earthquake which
doesn't wreck stuff is good (because it relieves strain on the fault and
compels proles to bolt their shelves.)  A hurricane in Florida brings
much-needed rain because they don't have rivers to bring them water (it's
too flat there.)  They don't even have major pipelines in general.  They are
dependent on ground water, which is replenished by rainwater, which is
dependent on storms, such as the one BillW is hogging now.  Florida needs
BillW's storm.  BillW needs Florida to take his storm off his wet hands.

But I digress.  I am fooling with a Kalman filter which puts our available
observables (Atlantic surface temperatures) into my covariance matrix to
predict European droughts.  Reasoning: although it doesn't directly wreck
things and make for great news clips, a long drought is more destructive
than a hurricane, Hell I like hurricanes.  But I don't like droughts.  A
good predictor of drought is more valuable than that lame accumulated
cyclonic energy metric.

We are now 7 days from moving 2022 into second place for the longest span
between named storms in the Atlantic.  The current outlook shows two
depressions, each with an estimated less than 20% chance of forming a
tropical storm.  My calcs suggest that this means we have less than about
36% chance of a named storm in the next 5 days, which means more than 64%
chance we get to move into second place for most pacific Atlantic, in a year
when sea surface temperatures are high.  We should be seeing a wet stormy
year according to prevailing standard theory, but we are seeing a dry quiet
year.  Think about that.  

My Kalman filter is having a great time.  Or rather it would be enjoying
itself, if matrix calculus could have a great time.

spike


From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Aug 25 18:28:55 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 19:28:55 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <006701d8b8aa$1cea5520$56beff60$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armhjKHV-YY+uB64zp26Ju95qEiGjfssbTcro+5w_=6hgEQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 18:45, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
<snip>.
>
> But I digress.  I am fooling with a Kalman filter which puts our available
> observables (Atlantic surface temperatures) into my covariance matrix to
> predict European droughts.  Reasoning: although it doesn't directly wreck
> things and make for great news clips, a long drought is more destructive
> than a hurricane, Hell I like hurricanes.  But I don't like droughts.  A
> good predictor of drought is more valuable than that lame accumulated
> cyclonic energy metric.
>
> We are now 7 days from moving 2022 into second place for the longest span
> between named storms in the Atlantic.  The current outlook shows two
> depressions, each with an estimated less than 20% chance of forming a
> tropical storm.  My calcs suggest that this means we have less than about
> 36% chance of a named storm in the next 5 days, which means more than 64%
> chance we get to move into second place for most pacific Atlantic, in a year
> when sea surface temperatures are high.  We should be seeing a wet stormy
> year according to prevailing standard theory, but we are seeing a dry quiet
> year.  Think about that.
>
> My Kalman filter is having a great time.  Or rather it would be enjoying
> itself, if matrix calculus could have a great time.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Well, London and SE England just got dumped on overnight with
thunderstorms and lighting and 2 or 3 inches of rain. Not enough to
refill reservoirs, but it did cause some localised flooding. Quite
annoying if you are in a drought restrictions area and the streets are
flooded!
The UK is quite a small island, but weather conditions vary a lot
between north and south and east and west.
Drought areas and flood areas are often quite small (by USA
standards). California is almost twice the size of the UK.

BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 19:00:35 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:00:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armhjKHV-YY+uB64zp26Ju95qEiGjfssbTcro+5w_=6hgEQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <008d01d8b8b4$f57fd810$e07f8830$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 18:45, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
...
>
>>... But I digress.  I am fooling with a Kalman filter which puts our 
> available observables (Atlantic surface temperatures) into my 
> covariance matrix to predict European droughts.  ...
> My Kalman filter is having a great time.  Or rather it would be 
> enjoying itself, if matrix calculus could have a great time.
>
>>... spike
> _______________________________________________


>...Well, London and SE England just got dumped on overnight with
thunderstorms and lighting and 2 or 3 inches of rain. Not enough to refill
reservoirs, but it did cause some localised flooding. Quite annoying if you
are in a drought restrictions area and the streets are flooded!
The UK is quite a small island, but weather conditions vary a lot between
north and south and east and west.
>...Drought areas and flood areas are often quite small (by USA standards).
California is almost twice the size of the UK.

BillK
_______________________________________________


OK, best wishes with that.  You personally are not in danger of an
involuntary swim, ja?

If we didn't know how it works, a Kalman filter could be considered AI: it
learns over time, and gets better at predicting an outcome.  Over time, we
accumulate more data (such as Atlantic surface temperature and rainfall in
England) so the uncertainty in the correlation coefficients in the
covariance matrix improves.  As that covariance matrix gets more and more
accurate, so do the predictions.  In that sense, the Kalman filter learns
from its own past experience and accumulates knowledge of a system it is
trying to predict.

Conclusion: if we didn't know how it works, a Kalman filter would be AI.
Since we know how it "learns" then it is demoted to an algorithm and isn't
actually intelligent.  The term artificial intelligence requires that we
actual intelligent beings don't understand how it works.  Humans somehow
manage to demote software we understand to non-intelligence without
simultaneously demoting ourselves to non-intelligence.  This alone is
sufficient evidence of our actual intelligence.

spike




From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 19:17:22 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 12:17:22 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <008d01d8b8b4$f57fd810$e07f8830$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <009701d8b8b7$4ded4170$e9c7c450$@rainier66.com>




>...Humans somehow manage to demote software we understand to
non-intelligence without simultaneously demoting ourselves to
non-intelligence.  This alone is sufficient evidence of our actual
intelligence.

spike





Hey cool, I like that.  I shall name the principle after me, then quote
myself often.

Oh wait, never mind.  In accordance with a previous principle I proposed,
someone else must have already suggested and named this notion with their
own idea-stealing name, a long time before I thought of it.

spike



From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Aug 25 20:01:09 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 21:01:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <009701d8b8b7$4ded4170$e9c7c450$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armh8jPdkDPQ9DTMTiVhQVKKy-m18oxp7Q_v0c8gZr=3wbQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 20:19, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> >...Humans somehow manage to demote software we understand to
> non-intelligence without simultaneously demoting ourselves to
> non-intelligence.  This alone is sufficient evidence of our actual
> intelligence.
>
> spike
>
> Hey cool, I like that.  I shall name the principle after me, then quote
> myself often.
>
> Oh wait, never mind.  In accordance with a previous principle I proposed,
> someone else must have already suggested and named this notion with their
> own idea-stealing name, a long time before I thought of it.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Oh, Nooooo!  I?ve just realised that you have got me chatting about the weather.

<https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20151214-why-do-brits-talk-about-the-weather-so-much>
Quotes:
According to recent research, 94% of British respondents admit to
having conversed about the weather in the past six hours, while 38%
say they have in the past 60 minutes. ?This means at almost any moment
in this country, at least a third of the population is either talking
about the weather, has already done so or is about to do so,?
In Britain, on the other hand, we can be wrapped up against the
elements on Saturday; picnicking in shorts and t-shirt on Sunday; and
battling torrential rain on Monday. That?s just the way it is here.
----------------

BillK


From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Aug 25 20:27:41 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:27:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh8jPdkDPQ9DTMTiVhQVKKy-m18oxp7Q_v0c8gZr=3wbQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNSM8ARtrd5ZHBtOF8Srq8K3wEmiodgbLR_oRJj8a1Q+Lw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 1:03 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Oh, Nooooo!  I?ve just realised that you have got me chatting about the
> weather.
>

But are you doing anything about it?
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 21:37:25 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:37:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armh8jPdkDPQ9DTMTiVhQVKKy-m18oxp7Q_v0c8gZr=3wbQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 20:19, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> >...Humans somehow manage to demote software we understand to
> non-intelligence without simultaneously demoting ourselves to 
> non-intelligence.  This alone is sufficient evidence of our actual 
> intelligence.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


>...Oh, Nooooo!  I?ve just realised that you have got me chatting about the weather.

>...<https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20151214-why-do-brits-talk-about-the-weather-so-much>
----------------

BillK

_______________________________________________


Oy vey, my efforts are in vain, at least temporarily.  The second to last paragraph below is the relevant point, for the industrious time-challenged gainfully employed among us.

BillK, I am not particularly interested in weather, but it occurred to me that one of my old favorite mathematical tools could be used (perhaps) to make useful prognostications about a topic which has proven notoriously difficult to predict.

Over the years, weather predictions have become far more accurate, because we have more instruments in orbit and surface, upon which to base our predictions.  Our ability to multiply enormous matrices has improved over the years and decades, which is required if one is using Kalman filters.  Into the covariance matrix goes all observable metrics.  Then we calculate correlation coefficients for each of the observables, which is (n^2)/2 coefficients (or (n^2)/2-n if one wishes to ignore the 1s on the main diagonal) then there are multiplies and determinants and so forth, so it is a tooonnnnn of calculations.

However... over time, we accumulate more and more data, so the covariance matrix gets better (recall that the covariance matrix starts off life as nxn identity matrix I sub n (which is the most ignorant matrix possible.))  Then every time step, the prediction is compared with the actual, correlations are found, the covariance matrix gets smarter.  And more experienced.  Then smarter, then... repeat until... when?

OK then.  BillK and other AI hipsters among us, do explain please why that wouldn't be an example of a learning algorithm, because it looks to me like it learned, and if so, is not the ability to learn a critical requirement of the definition of intelligence?

And if so... could not we refute one of Eliezer Yudkowsky's most fundamental items in his AI canon, the one I have always found dubious: that true AI is not dependent upon calculation speed and memory capacity.

Please AI hipsters among us, if I have misunderstood Eliezer's contention (which I mighta (or it has become outdated since he was expounding the theory 20 yrs ago)) do set me straight.  I contended back in the 90s that our increasing capacity to calculate would eventually enable AI.  Eliezer opined that it would not, or would not by itself.

OK then, what if we have an enormous Kalman filter looking at weather (since that is what started the discussion.)  Over time we have certainly acquired increasing capacity to multiply enormous matrices and calculate determinants, as well as to store enormous piles of data required to calculate correlation coefficients, ja?  So now... we can do math that just couldn't do 20 yrs ago, because we hadn't the computing horsepower then.

As more instruments are added to the observation pool, the software can add them into its covariance matrix (the software can already do that, no magic required) and it can throw out observables which it finds to have no significant correlation with anything (BillK's garden butterflies for instance (the row and column for British butterflies would be zeros all the way down and all the way across (so throw it out.))  Over time, that matrix would accumulate better higher-confidence measures of ever-more relevant observable variables and the result would be better predictions.  It gets smarter and better.

BillK, any AI hipsters or anyone else here, please can you offer me (in terms even a controls engineer can understand) how that algorithm is not learning and is not AI?  Because it sure looks like AI tome. It is learning how to do something, in a way not all that terribly different from how we carbon-units learn.

spike



From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 21:41:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:41:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNSM8ARtrd5ZHBtOF8Srq8K3wEmiodgbLR_oRJj8a1Q+Lw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <004501d8b8cb$74ce7930$5e6b6b90$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 1:03 PM BillK via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Oh, Nooooo!  I?ve just realised that you have got me chatting about the weather.

 

>?But are you doing anything about it? 

 

 

Adrian!

 

Wisecracks are always welcome of course, but you are one of our smartest AI hipsters.  Do think about my previous post and offer me an explanation for how an enormous Kalman filter-based weatherman (weather?thing?) is not AI.  Looks to me like it checks off all the boxes, which would require us to dig up and move the goalpost yet again.  

 

We might as well just leave the AI goalpost on the back of the truck just to save time.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Thu Aug 25 22:21:02 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 23:21:02 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <004501d8b8cb$74ce7930$5e6b6b90$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armi8GAz1OGMseqZgepvkmGmTRO5x2d1ibRNqDLyxB9+sog@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 22:47, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>  Do think about my previous post and offer me an explanation for how an enormous Kalman filter-based weatherman (weather?thing?) is not AI.  Looks to me like it checks off all the boxes, which would require us to dig up and move the goalpost yet again.
>
> We might as well just leave the AI goalpost on the back of the truck just to save time.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


It is an optimising problem-solver, but only for the specific problem
it was designed for.
Like the Machine Learning programs that play Go or Chess.

Ben Goertzel has just written 'Three Viable Paths to True AGI' which
discusses the requirements for AGI.

<https://bengoertzel.substack.com/p/three-viable-paths-to-true-agi>
Quote:
The deep neural nets and other ML algorithms that are absorbing most
of the AI world?s attention today are, in my own view, fundamentally
unsuited for the creation of human-level AGI.
As I noted in my last blog post, the absolute upper bound for which
these deep nets or any vaguely similar methods could be sensibly hoped
to achieve would be what I?d call ?closed-ended quasi-AGI? systems
which could imitate a lot of human behaviors ? but which, due to the
fundamental lack of ability to innovate, abstract or generalize, would
be incapable to address difficult unsolved science and engineering
problems, or to perform the self-modification and self-improvement
needed to serve as seed AIs and launch a Singularity.
-------------

ML programs are very useful algorithms but they are not AI.


BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 23:05:41 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:05:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armi8GAz1OGMseqZgepvkmGmTRO5x2d1ibRNqDLyxB9+sog@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <006801d8b8d7$335fdeb0$9a1f9c10$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
>
>>... We might as well just leave the AI goalpost on the back of the truck just to save time.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________



<https://bengoertzel.substack.com/p/three-viable-paths-to-true-agi>
Quote:
>>... ? but which, due to the fundamental lack of ability to innovate, abstract or generalize, would be incapable to address difficult unsolved science and engineering problems, or to perform the self-modification and self-improvement needed to serve as seed AIs and launch a Singularity... Ben
-------------

>...ML programs are very useful algorithms but they are not AI.

BillK
____________________________________________


BillK, the Kalman filter software does a kinda-sorta version of both self-modification and self-improvement.  It modifies itself by throwing out irrelevant correlations (butterflies) and adds in new observable metrics into the covariance matrix.  It self-improves by calculating, estimating, observing, adding the measured observations to data, recalculating correlation coefficients then replacing old coefficients with new ones in the covariance matrix.

Me lads, that is both self-modification and self-improvement.  Clarification: it is more self-modification and self-improvement than I am doing, for time is modifying me (in a way I don't like) and my self-improvement is negative because of it.  I didn't usta suck.  But now I do.

But I digress (again.)  If we get a jillion independent processors working on Kalman filters, each doing their own thing (hurricane predictions, my own favorite the predictions of the time interval in which the next record prime number will be discovered, predictions of droughts for three examples) then load up the accumulated expertise in one computer, and if we do that... what is that computer?  

Fun answer: it isn't intelligent because it isn't self-modifying or learning at all.  It just contains all the accumulated wisdom the Kalman filter computers already calculated and learned, thru their self-improvement and self-modification.

BillK, consider your comment about ML programs being useful algorithms but not AI.  You offered us no backup reasoning, which is what I am asking for right now.  Drill deep sir.  You might be right on that contention (for it is in agreement with some powerful thinkers (such as Eleizer and Ben)) but do support your conclusion.

spike




From atymes at gmail.com  Thu Aug 25 23:11:45 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:11:45 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <004501d8b8cb$74ce7930$5e6b6b90$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNTTSpY5T11kinWZb08Q70nVDQ6f30A-YvcmkvfGTHi7sA@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 2:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Do think about my previous post and offer me an explanation for how an
> enormous Kalman filter-based weatherman (weather?thing?) is not AI.
>

Depends on the definition of AI that you are using.  Is it a true Scotsman?
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From spike at rainier66.com  Thu Aug 25 23:52:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 16:52:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTTSpY5T11kinWZb08Q70nVDQ6f30A-YvcmkvfGTHi7sA@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <009301d8b8dd$c1a181a0$44e484e0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Sent: Thursday, 25 August, 2022 4:12 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 2:46 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Do think about my previous post and offer me an explanation for how an enormous Kalman filter-based weatherman (weather?thing?) is not AI.

 

>?Depends on the definition of AI that you are using.  Is it a true Scotsman? 

 

 

 

Adrian, do allow me to press a little harder.  Again the real message is in the last two paragraphs.

 

Perhaps you recall (I sure do) back in the olden days when human intelligence was defined by foresight leading to creation of a tool.  In the 1960s, researchers confidently opined that humans were the only beasts which make tools.  But? what about chimps who select a twig, strip off the leaves and make a tool for fishing termites out of a stump?  

 

Once the researchers grudgingly admitted that OK primates make tools, then we recognized that all kinds of beasts make tools.  Watch this little guy and explain why this isn?t an example of tool making:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/wt91kp/this_clever_little_caterpillar_makes_a_leaf_tent/

 

OK then, certainly there is a distinction in degree: we primates make particle accelerators, the caterpillar made a leaf tent.  Both made tools, humans make cooler ones.

 

OK then, but we had to move those goal posts pretty dang far, ja?  

 

What if we recognize that Kalman filters are a kind of AI, in the sense that the caterpillar is a tool maker, but all the Kalman filter can do is offer some insights on a very specific task, examples being hurricane and drought predictions, prime numbers and so on.  They aren?t really smart, just good at some things.  We humans are smart at everything, and so how secure we feel up here at the top of the intelligence food chain. 

 

But wait.  How many among us know how to take a bunch of sea surface measurements and estimate the coming month?s accumulated cyclonic energy?  I know of software which can do that.  Can?t do anything else, wouldn?t know how to wipe its own butt (if it had one) but it can do the ACE thing way better than humans, better than any human.  It learned how by measuring and calculating, refining, observing, self-modifying, repeat repeat repeat.

 

How many humans know how to estimate the time interval over which the next record prime number will be discovered?  Well, OK I do, so bad example, but in general, these Kalman filter based algorithms can get a super-specialized question, run 24/7, never get tired, bored, distracted, sexually aroused, any of the stuff that keeps us humans from figuring out something.  We can set arbitrarily many of processors working on various things, then? we load the resulting covariance matrices from the various tasks, and end up with a computer which knows a lot of stuff but isn?t actually learning anything.  

 

If all that is correct, then the processors running the Kalman filters are intelligent but know only one thing.  The (what would you call it?) computer which receives the accumulated knowledge (the covariance matrices) knows a lot of stuff but isn?t intelligent.

 

Doesn?t that seem paradoxical?  

 

spike

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From gadersd at gmail.com  Fri Aug 26 00:12:07 2022
From: gadersd at gmail.com (Gadersd)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 20:12:07 -0400
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <004401d8b8ca$decbea80$9c63bf80$@rainier66.com>
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The Kalman filter algorithm you described is indeed a learning algorithm. It improves its predictions as more data comes along and therefore is a simple form of AI. However, the domain of problems it can solve is quite limited compared to more advanced techniques such as machine learning. I agree with BillK that even machine learning has a limited domain. Machine learning essentially works by fitting a function onto massive amounts of data by manipulating the function?s parameters until the desired behavior is achieved. In a sense, machine learning memorizes the data, but is able to ?read between the lines? to work with new input data it has never seen before that is similar to data it was trained on. Machine learning algorithms struggle to handle data that is too different from what it they have seen before. This lack of generalization ability is one of the greatest weaknesses of machine learning.

If AI that can theoretically solve any problem and has limitless generalization ability is what you are looking for, then something radically different is needed. True generalized AI is actually a solved problem and we have the equations, but very few people seem to be aware of this. I won?t reveal the details because I like my secrets, though the equations are not hard to find if one searches diligently enough.

In any case, I suspect that machine learning is good enough to carry us forward for a while. It can even reach human level if the artificial neural network architectures are further improved and generalized (our brains are neural networks after all).

Eliezer is quite intelligent and knowledgeable so I am very confused if he implied that processing speed and memory doesn?t have a significant positive effect on AI. That would be a blatantly false claim and spits in the face of all current AI research. I wonder if there is a mistake in your memory or perhaps Eliezer?s grasp on AI 20 years ago was much more lacking than it is now.

> On Aug 25, 2022, at 5:37 PM, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> ...> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
> Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places
> 
> On Thu, 25 Aug 2022 at 20:19, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> 
>>> ...Humans somehow manage to demote software we understand to
>> non-intelligence without simultaneously demoting ourselves to 
>> non-intelligence.  This alone is sufficient evidence of our actual 
>> intelligence.
>> 
>> spike
>> _______________________________________________
> 
> 
>> ...Oh, Nooooo!  I?ve just realised that you have got me chatting about the weather.
> 
>> ...<https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20151214-why-do-brits-talk-about-the-weather-so-much>
> ----------------
> 
> BillK
> 
> _______________________________________________
> 
> 
> Oy vey, my efforts are in vain, at least temporarily.  The second to last paragraph below is the relevant point, for the industrious time-challenged gainfully employed among us.
> 
> BillK, I am not particularly interested in weather, but it occurred to me that one of my old favorite mathematical tools could be used (perhaps) to make useful prognostications about a topic which has proven notoriously difficult to predict.
> 
> Over the years, weather predictions have become far more accurate, because we have more instruments in orbit and surface, upon which to base our predictions.  Our ability to multiply enormous matrices has improved over the years and decades, which is required if one is using Kalman filters.  Into the covariance matrix goes all observable metrics.  Then we calculate correlation coefficients for each of the observables, which is (n^2)/2 coefficients (or (n^2)/2-n if one wishes to ignore the 1s on the main diagonal) then there are multiplies and determinants and so forth, so it is a tooonnnnn of calculations.
> 
> However... over time, we accumulate more and more data, so the covariance matrix gets better (recall that the covariance matrix starts off life as nxn identity matrix I sub n (which is the most ignorant matrix possible.))  Then every time step, the prediction is compared with the actual, correlations are found, the covariance matrix gets smarter.  And more experienced.  Then smarter, then... repeat until... when?
> 
> OK then.  BillK and other AI hipsters among us, do explain please why that wouldn't be an example of a learning algorithm, because it looks to me like it learned, and if so, is not the ability to learn a critical requirement of the definition of intelligence?
> 
> And if so... could not we refute one of Eliezer Yudkowsky's most fundamental items in his AI canon, the one I have always found dubious: that true AI is not dependent upon calculation speed and memory capacity.
> 
> Please AI hipsters among us, if I have misunderstood Eliezer's contention (which I mighta (or it has become outdated since he was expounding the theory 20 yrs ago)) do set me straight.  I contended back in the 90s that our increasing capacity to calculate would eventually enable AI.  Eliezer opined that it would not, or would not by itself.
> 
> OK then, what if we have an enormous Kalman filter looking at weather (since that is what started the discussion.)  Over time we have certainly acquired increasing capacity to multiply enormous matrices and calculate determinants, as well as to store enormous piles of data required to calculate correlation coefficients, ja?  So now... we can do math that just couldn't do 20 yrs ago, because we hadn't the computing horsepower then.
> 
> As more instruments are added to the observation pool, the software can add them into its covariance matrix (the software can already do that, no magic required) and it can throw out observables which it finds to have no significant correlation with anything (BillK's garden butterflies for instance (the row and column for British butterflies would be zeros all the way down and all the way across (so throw it out.))  Over time, that matrix would accumulate better higher-confidence measures of ever-more relevant observable variables and the result would be better predictions.  It gets smarter and better.
> 
> BillK, any AI hipsters or anyone else here, please can you offer me (in terms even a controls engineer can understand) how that algorithm is not learning and is not AI?  Because it sure looks like AI tome. It is learning how to do something, in a way not all that terribly different from how we carbon-units learn.
> 
> spike
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat

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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Aug 26 00:40:25 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 17:40:25 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <A5C36AF2-1DA5-4ECC-94F5-171D35E4A1AD@gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <00c001d8b8e4$6f054420$4d0fcc60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Gadersd via extropy-chat
?

 

 

 

>?Eliezer is quite intelligent and knowledgeable so I am very confused if he implied that processing speed and memory doesn?t have a significant positive effect on AI. That would be a blatantly false claim and spits in the face of all current AI research. I wonder if there is a mistake in your memory or perhaps Eliezer?s grasp on AI 20 years ago was much more lacking than it is now? Gadersd

 

Hi Gadersd, what Eliezer said at the time as I recall is probably accurate as it was stated at the time.  We were in a period of rapid growth in computer speed and capacity.  We were speculating on how much computing power would be needed to have AI.  He tossed a wet blanket over us by opining that it isn?t computing power which is stopping AI now (at that time.)  Granted I may have misunderstood what he was claiming and he might have specifically meant the singularity rather than AI.  AI by itself doesn?t cause the singularity.

 

What I now think is that computing capacity may well have been a limiting factor at the time for at least some tasks.  Since we have been using as an example the sea surface temperature data to predict accumulated cyclonic energy, do let me run with that.  At the time, computers (even supercomputers) weren?t really fast enough to process all that data, since we had a jillion floating observation stations and data coming in continuously.  Since then we have gotten enough computing power cheap enough that they can chew on that data 24/7.

 

This is what started me to thinking on this problem again, for it has long been a sacred concept in climate change science that elevated sea surface temperatures predict increasing ACE.  But that isn?t what is happening this year.  In 7 days, this year, 2022 moves into second place for the quietest Atlantic hurricane season.  In 9 days becomes a record setter in the 55 years we have had accurate measures (since 1966.)  There is nothing out there currently which appears likely to become a named storm in the next 5 days, so? we might get a record quiet year when sea surface temperatures are nearly as high on average as they have ever been.

 

We should start a betting pool or a game of some sort, those who are cheering for the hurricanes vs those who are cheering for a pacific Atlantic.  Being a former Floridian, I will cheer for the hurricanes (which are considered a good thing there (because they result in replenished groundwater.))

 

Side note on that: it might be a coincidence, but the all quiet on the eastern front is happening the same year as the bad droughts in Europe.  That those two things should be correlated makes perfect sense to me: hurricanes hurl water into the atmosphere, and it blows generally west to east over those regions.

 

spike

 

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From atymes at gmail.com  Fri Aug 26 00:53:59 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 17:53:59 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
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On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 4:54 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> If all that is correct, then the processors running the Kalman filters are
> intelligent but know only one thing.  The (what would you call it?)
> computer which receives the accumulated knowledge (the covariance matrices)
> knows a lot of stuff but isn?t intelligent.
>
>
>
> Doesn?t that seem paradoxical?
>

No, that seems like getting hung up on the various definitions of
"intelligent".  There is not one single definition, and many of them are
not simple yes/no things where you can say something (such as a processor
running a Kalman filter) is or is not (that version of) intelligent.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Aug 26 05:37:11 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2022 22:37:11 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNS81vyAJcOSq9-PPCSamiC6uBB1=hSs=kgR0k4VHG-vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <001b01d8b90d$e4b80c10$ae282430$@rainier66.com>

 

 

?> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 4:54 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

?

>>?Doesn?t that seem paradoxical? 

 

>?No, that seems like getting hung up on the various definitions of "intelligent".  There is not one single definition, and many of them are not simple yes/no things where you can say something (such as a processor running a Kalman filter) is or is not (that version of) intelligent.

 

 

OK no worries, I have an idea.  Again, skip to the last part if you are in a hurry, because it is a cool conclusion methinks.

 

We might be getting tangled up in conflating artificial intelligence with artificial human-level intelligence.  Our reasoning on that is understandable: if we create software that is human-level intelligent, we can set arbitrarily many of them to writing and optimizing software 24/7 and the result is? the singularity.

 

But not necessarily.  If we run with Adrian?s notion that the definition of intelligence matters, then we could create human-level intelligence to do stuff for us without causing the singularity.

 

Reasoning: humans are human level intelligences, but not all humans can write software.  Only a fraction of them can code worth a damn, so? perhaps we can get human level AI with no will, no desire to take over the world, no self-awareness etc.

 

The idea: we just go with our favorite machine learning technique and set it to work.  Mine is the Kalman filter because that one is used a lot in controls engineering and is my own tool of choice.  So I set up a bunch of Kalman filters with a list of perhaps a few thousand observable metrics.  

 

A practical iterative covariance matrix with today?s computing power can only deal with about 50 x 50-ish rows and columns, so? we have the AI choose an output, such as drought in England, floods in Mississippi, ACE in the Atlantic, average SAT score at the local high school for instance, then let the processor grind away, tossing out the irrelevant factors by noting which row/column factors have zero correlation with the output.  Toss those out as they reach the bottom, say 50th place, replace them with a randomly chosen factor from the long list of possibly relevant metrics.  Over time, the algorithm should learn which of the 50 metrics on the list of a few thousand observables are most relevant to predicting the outcome of whatever it is studying.

 

Then? we load all our resulting covariance matrices onto a top-level processor, which would then know how to predict a lotta stuff.  Then we don?t worry about whether the Boss Pross is intelligent (it isn?t) but it still knows a lot and can make good predictions based on measurements we give it.

 

Adrian, whaddya think of that idea?

 

spike

 

 

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From giulio at gmail.com  Fri Aug 26 07:25:06 2022
From: giulio at gmail.com (Giulio Prisco)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 09:25:06 +0200
Subject: [ExI] NASA is going back to the Moon
Message-ID: <CAKTCJycRwjJjxYBjeH5dG6Wkqwrc=WZPm9iVgp2QHkmbBnX5xw@mail.gmail.com>

My weekly rant on Artemis and related spaceflight topics.

Turing Church newsletter. NASA is going back to the Moon. Also, review
of "Escaping Gravity" by Lori Garver, and other spaceflight
meditations.
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/nasa-is-going-back-to-the-moon

"Let NASA inaugurate the return to the Moon. Let NASA have fun with
its expensive rockets, and let?s praise NASA for what is still an
impressive achievement. I was persuaded that the Biden administration
would cancel the Artemis program long before Artemis 1, so the fact
that Artemis 1 is on the launch pad is very good news. VERY good news.
After a successful Artemis 1 mission, killing the program will be
difficult... Artemis 1 to 3 will prepare the way for sustainable and
permanent human presence on the Moon and Mars. This opens the road,
and Elon Musk will likely leap ahead at some point - once Starship is
operational, it will be difficult to justify spending much more for
what can be done much cheaper. Meanwhile, let the government waste
some more billions. It isn't like they aren't wasting much more money
on other things."

Best to all and let's watch the launch on Monday with childlike awe
and wonder! Then, to work!


From ben at zaiboc.net  Fri Aug 26 10:27:09 2022
From: ben at zaiboc.net (Ben Zaiboc)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 11:27:09 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
References: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
Message-ID: <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>

On 25/08/2022 19:29, Spike wrote:
> I understand it has been a bit dry in Europe this summer

Spike, stop it this instant!

You Yanks don't do understatement. It doesn't suit you. Leave it to the 
experts, please.

Ben

From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Aug 26 14:39:41 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 07:39:41 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>
References: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>
Message-ID: <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>

 

...> On Behalf Of Ben Zaiboc via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

On 25/08/2022 19:29, Spike wrote:

>>. I understand it has been a bit dry in Europe this summer

 

>.Spike, stop it this instant!

 

>..You Yanks don't do understatement. It doesn't suit you. Leave it to the
experts, please.

 

>.Ben

_______________________________________________

 

 

 

Me yanks?  I only live here Ben.  I did DNA and discovered how many of my
ancestors came from Scotland.  Have half a mind to move back there.

 

I think BillK lives around there somewhere or has friends and relatives from
there, and he seems like a most agreeable chap.  The Scots know how to live:

 



 

They have servants and everything!  Hasta be true, saw it on Downton Abbey.

 

spike

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From msd001 at gmail.com  Fri Aug 26 15:08:34 2022
From: msd001 at gmail.com (Mike Dougherty)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 11:08:34 -0400
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>
References: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>
 <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAOJFdbLYP5xOapbGOvoDgO4eoZfBknAc1uN-S0ydFbcJmsbLTg@mail.gmail.com>

On Fri, Aug 26, 2022, 10:41 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>  agreeable chap.  The Scots know how to live:
>
>
> They have servants and everything!  Hasta be true, saw it on Downton Abbey.
>
Let's not forget their famously useful tape

>
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From spike at rainier66.com  Fri Aug 26 16:08:16 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 09:08:16 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAOJFdbLYP5xOapbGOvoDgO4eoZfBknAc1uN-S0ydFbcJmsbLTg@mail.gmail.com>
References: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>
 <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>
 <CAOJFdbLYP5xOapbGOvoDgO4eoZfBknAc1uN-S0ydFbcJmsbLTg@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007201d8b966$0d595270$280bf750$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

 

On Fri, Aug 26, 2022, 10:41 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

 agreeable chap.  The Scots know how to live:

 

They have servants and everything!  Hasta be true, saw it on Downton Abbey.

>?Let's not forget their famously useful tape?

 

 

 

And guard, on the carpet.  And whiskey.  Butter.  Hop.

 

Mike since we have diverted from the topic of predicting accumulated cyclonic energy as a proxy for the number of storms to hit Florida, I have one for yas.

 

This map isn?t a Kalman filter, but it uses matrix techniques in a way vaguely analogous to that.  AncestryDNA is one of those outfits where you spit in a test tube, send it, they give you a list of relatives and a map indicating where they are from.  Several years ago there was a lotta guesswork but over time, they have accumulated more and more data from areas where the people can verify with very accurate records that all of their ancestors, every one of them, have been from right there and only right there tracing all the way back as far as these 60 dollar kits can see, which is about? around mid 1600s or so.

 

They revise these maps about every quarter, and as they do, their estimates get more and more accurate.  I know this because I did traditional genealogy starting in 1989, so I already knew where some of the ancestors were from.  AncestryDNA eventually figured it out and they were right.  With the accumulated data on AncestryDNA (over 26 million proles) they can now give you a pretty good idea of where your DNA came from and can even offer a surprise or two, such as? see below bottom of the map.  

 

That down there at the bottom is real, we traced it, learned the whole story.  It isn?t pretty, but I am glad I know it.  If there is anything in your head that you could unknow given that option, would you choose to unknow it?  Anything you have seen you would opt to unsee?  Me neither.

 

This all ties back into Kalman filters and learning software, for what we are seeing here is software at work and software under development, some of which I personally wrote, contributing to this.

 

I have mentioned this before in this forum: a software package I developed which helps proles in creating a biologically accurate family tree.  I am willing to use it to help anyone here who wants it.  Inquiring minds want to know.

 



 

spike

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From ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com  Fri Aug 26 19:21:20 2022
From: ilsa.bartlett at gmail.com (ilsa)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 12:21:20 -0700
Subject: [ExI] Lloyd's
Message-ID: <CAN3PQpEUU6DyO5_i=-dtmA3mxgeHQuk6BY0UETCHcHRAq2YXLw@mail.gmail.com>

https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/24/lloyds_cybersecurity_insurance/
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sat Aug 27 00:58:43 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Fri, 26 Aug 2022 17:58:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>
References: <mailman.160.1661452186.1444.extropy-chat@lists.extropy.org>
 <5eea8d47-c178-61b2-d3e5-5a9b734ea53b@zaiboc.net>
 <003601d8b959$adda6a70$098f3f50$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <001901d8b9b0$281224d0$78366e70$@rainier66.com>

 

 

You may recall this thread originated in predicting Atlantic accumulated
cyclonic energy using Kalman filters.

 

I have been watching the NOAA site where they update four times a day.  They
had identified two areas which had the potential to become named storms, but
in this latest update, both have fizzled.

 

The one on the left they now say 0% chance, and the one on the right they
say about 10% chance of becoming a contenduh.  (It coulda been somebody.)

 

We are now 6 days from 2022 moving into second place for the quietest storm
year since 1966.

 

 



 

 

Spike, why do you care, me lad?  Well because I know how Kalman filters
work, so I know that this unexpected quiet year when Atlantic sea surface
temperatures are at or near a record high reduces the correlation
coefficient between those two variables, resulting in a lower confidence or
larger interval in the predicted ACE in any given year.

 

But. on the other hand. the correlation I have long suspected, quiet
Atlantic year is linked to droughts in Europe, gets stronger.

 

If so, and we theorize that global warming causes more hurricanes, then
global warming is (at least in that way) a good thing because it reduces the
risk of drought in Europe.

 

If so, well hell we can build stuff that holds up to hurricanes.  That isn't
nearly as hard as dealing with severe drought in Europe, ja?

 

spike

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From atymes at gmail.com  Sun Aug 28 06:24:57 2022
From: atymes at gmail.com (Adrian Tymes)
Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2022 23:24:57 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <001b01d8b90d$e4b80c10$ae282430$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CALAdGNTaT=u8xFEqigg7ZQAHiLjh5ZWp1tgQPAY2pE4Vof-Hbw@mail.gmail.com>

On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 10:39 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
>
>
>
> *?*> *On Behalf Of *Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places
>
>
>
> On Thu, Aug 25, 2022 at 4:54 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> ?
>
> >>?Doesn?t that seem paradoxical?
>
>
>
> >?No, that seems like getting hung up on the various definitions of
> "intelligent".  There is not one single definition, and many of them are
> not simple yes/no things where you can say something (such as a processor
> running a Kalman filter) is or is not (that version of) intelligent.
>
>

> If we run with Adrian?s notion that the definition of intelligence
> matters, then we could create human-level intelligence to do stuff for us
> without causing the singularity.
>

You seriously misquote me.  The definition of the word "intelligence"
matters to explaining how you wound up with seemingly contradictory
statements, because you were using two different senses of the word.  This
has nothing to do with actual software.


> Toss those out as they reach the bottom, say 50th place, replace them
> with a randomly chosen factor from the long list of possibly relevant
> metrics.  Over time, the algorithm should learn which of the 50 metrics on
> the list of a few thousand observables are most relevant to predicting the
> outcome of whatever it is studying.
>

This is not "human-level" intelligence, but instead using a robot to do a
task so tedious that humans would struggle to do it - one of the
advantages of robots.

Also, this sort of thing is already being done.
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From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Aug 28 12:51:24 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2022 05:51:24 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CALAdGNTaT=u8xFEqigg7ZQAHiLjh5ZWp1tgQPAY2pE4Vof-Hbw@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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 <CAL_armh8jPdkDPQ9DTMTiVhQVKKy-m18oxp7Q_v0c8gZr=3wbQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <CALAdGNSM8ARtrd5ZHBtOF8Srq8K3wEmiodgbLR_oRJj8a1Q+Lw@mail.gmail.com>
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 <CALAdGNTaT=u8xFEqigg7ZQAHiLjh5ZWp1tgQPAY2pE4Vof-Hbw@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <005801d8badc$e1a97420$a4fc5c60$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
?

If we run with Adrian?s notion that the definition of intelligence matters, then we could create human-level intelligence to do stuff for us without causing the singularity.

 

>?You seriously misquote me.  The definition of the word "intelligence" matters to explaining how you wound up with seemingly contradictory statements, because you were using two different senses of the word.  This has nothing to do with actual software?

 

Cool thx for the clarification.

 

 

Toss those out as they reach the bottom, say 50th place, replace them with a randomly chosen factor from the long list of possibly relevant metrics.  Over time, the algorithm should learn which of the 50 metrics on the list of a few thousand observables are most relevant to predicting the outcome of whatever it is studying.

 

>?This is not "human-level" intelligence, but instead using a robot to do a task so tedious that humans would struggle to do it - one of the advantages of robots?

 

As I pondered it yesterday I realized this optimization process lacks one of the critical components we think of as human level intelligence: inventiveness.  The software goes thru a few thousand observable metrics and calculates which are the top 50 most relevant ones.  But we must give it the few thousand metrics from which to choose before it can begin.  It doesn?t have the capacity to think of new ideas or new approaches.

 

Eventually we get a really competent boss pross that knows how to calculate a lot of things but can?t invent anything.  I know plenty of humans in that category: highly competent people, intelligent, disciplined, great accountants for instance, but they are not inventors.  I have never seen a CPA invent a new way to do accounting.

 

Regarding the quiet period in the Atlantic, finally we are getting some activity out there.  According to the NOAA site there is about a 70 percent chance we will get a named storm in the next five days out of that red area shown in the map below:

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

 

 



 

If it doesn?t happen in four days, then 2022 becomes the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1966 and if that storm doesn?t form for 6 days, then 2022 sets a record.  I like setting records, but I suspect the drought in Europe is correlated with this lack of storms, so to hell with the record, I hope the sea will let er rip soon.

 

spike

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From pharos at gmail.com  Sun Aug 28 13:41:17 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2022 14:41:17 +0100
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <005801d8badc$e1a97420$a4fc5c60$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <CAL_armicKuPUU5zUsTQgwG8deAKYiSv1FKjp6Lk22HrPiWhFFQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Sun, 28 Aug 2022 at 13:54, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> As I pondered it yesterday I realized this optimization process lacks one of the critical components we think of as human level intelligence: inventiveness.  The software goes thru a few thousand observable metrics and calculates which are the top 50 most relevant ones.  But we must give it the few thousand metrics from which to choose before it can begin.  It doesn?t have the capacity to think of new ideas or new approaches.
>
> Eventually we get a really competent boss pross that knows how to calculate a lot of things but can?t invent anything.  I know plenty of humans in that category: highly competent people, intelligent, disciplined, great accountants for instance, but they are not inventors.  I have never seen a CPA invent a new way to do accounting.
>
> Regarding the quiet period in the Atlantic, finally we are getting some activity out there.  According to the NOAA site there is about a 70 percent chance we will get a named storm in the next five days out of that red area shown in the map below:
>
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
>
> If it doesn?t happen in four days, then 2022 becomes the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1966 and if that storm doesn?t form for 6 days, then 2022 sets a record.  I like setting records, but I suspect the drought in Europe is correlated with this lack of storms, so to hell with the record, I hope the sea will let er rip soon.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________



I think that your conclusion is what Ben Goertzel and many others are saying -
Quote -
due to the fundamental lack of ability to innovate, abstract or
generalize, would be incapable to address difficult unsolved science
and engineering problems, or to perform the self-modification and
self-improvement needed to serve as seed AIs and launch a Singularity.
End Quote.

AccuWeather says -
A vast area of dry air and stiff breezes, known as wind shear has
persisted much of this summer from the central Caribbean to the
central and eastern Atlantic. These conditions have created an
environment too hostile for tropical development of the disturbances,
known as tropical waves, that routinely move west off the coast of
Africa.
Earlier in August, Kottlowski noted that conditions less hostile for
tropical waves were developing over Africa and that these "friendly"
conditions for tropical development would drift over part of the
western Atlantic next week. Once this occurs, tropical waves that have
been suppressed thus far may begin to show more vigor due to less dry
air and lower wind shear.
----------------

I don't know whether the forecasters language about dry air and
tropical disturbances moving west off the coast of Africa are a result
of European drought conditions. The European droughts are caused by
increased heat (i.e. greater evaporation) and reduced rainfall as
shifts in the jet stream bring hotter, drier air up from Africa. If
Africa is going to be sending wet hurricanes across to the USA, then
Europe may also get thunderstorms and rain up from Africa.

BillK


From spike at rainier66.com  Sun Aug 28 15:37:43 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2022 08:37:43 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armicKuPUU5zUsTQgwG8deAKYiSv1FKjp6Lk22HrPiWhFFQ@mail.gmail.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <002b01d8baf4$1dcb7810$59626830$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Sunday, 28 August, 2022 6:41 AM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] i got friends in low places

On Sun, 28 Aug 2022 at 13:54, spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> As I pondered it yesterday I realized this optimization process lacks one of the critical components we think of as human level intelligence: inventiveness.  The software goes thru a few thousand observable metrics and calculates which are the top 50 most relevant ones.  But we must give it the few thousand metrics from which to choose before it can begin.  It doesn?t have the capacity to think of new ideas or new approaches.
>
> Eventually we get a really competent boss pross that knows how to calculate a lot of things but can?t invent anything.  I know plenty of humans in that category: highly competent people, intelligent, disciplined, great accountants for instance, but they are not inventors.  I have never seen a CPA invent a new way to do accounting.
>
> Regarding the quiet period in the Atlantic, finally we are getting some activity out there.  According to the NOAA site there is about a 70 percent chance we will get a named storm in the next five days out of that red area shown in the map below:
>
> https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
>
> If it doesn?t happen in four days, then 2022 becomes the second quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1966 and if that storm doesn?t form for 6 days, then 2022 sets a record.  I like setting records, but I suspect the drought in Europe is correlated with this lack of storms, so to hell with the record, I hope the sea will let er rip soon.
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________



>...I think that your conclusion is what Ben Goertzel and many others are saying ...

Ah, so Ben and Eliezer stole my idea a coupla decades before I thought of it, the scoundrels.



AccuWeather says -
>... Once this occurs, tropical waves that have been suppressed thus far may begin to show more vigor due to less dry air and lower wind shear.
----------------

OK we might be seeing this now.  Stand by for news.


>.... The European droughts are caused by increased heat (i.e. greater evaporation) and reduced rainfall as shifts in the jet stream bring hotter, drier air up from Africa. If Africa is going to be sending wet hurricanes across to the USA, then Europe may also get thunderstorms and rain up from Africa.

BillK

_______________________________________________

OK cool I had it the other way around: the low Atlantic storm activity was causing the European drought by not Hoovering up massive amounts of water and hurling into the atmosphere.  In the sub-Saharan tropics, the wind blows generally east to west, carrying storms to north America.  They hit the coast and turn north, where the wind blows generally west to east, carrying the moisture to England (I hear it rains a lot in Jolly Olde) and on over into Europe.

If those moist clouds don't show up in England on schedule, the sunlight shines down and it gets hot.

So my cause and effect are switched, but correlation coefficients don't know or care which causes what, only how the two correlate.  This is what makes Kalman filtering such a powerful predictive technique.

If you want to follow it, the NOAA site updates about every 6 hours centered at midnight in Greenwich England.  But I ask you, and especially you BillK: what's so special about Greenwich England?  Why should that place get to be the center of the map for standardized time?  It has less than 300k proles, well hell, San Jose California has more than triple that number and most of them are BIPOC so that means each counts as five thirds.  BillK what's up with you British guys handing us Greenwich mean time?  Why not San Jose mean time?

But I digress.  Here ya go, check it out, cheer for the storms:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Cool!



From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug 29 00:01:00 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2022 17:01:00 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <005801d8badc$e1a97420$a4fc5c60$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
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Message-ID: <000601d8bb3a$6ccd22b0$46676810$@rainier66.com>

 

For those watching the NOAA site and cheering for the hurricanes (sounds like a great team name, ja?) the estimated probability of the so-far-unnamed depression becoming a storm in the next two days just went up from 30 to 50 percent.  This system might grow up and make a name for itself.

 

Go hurricanes!

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Mon Aug 29 13:14:35 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 06:14:35 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <000601d8bb3a$6ccd22b0$46676810$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armjm4RjfT+gsqissD7s6KkuPfw5+A2i2eFBLdjyh-8H7+A@mail.gmail.com>
 <010001d8b7fd$37605a60$a6210f20$@rainier66.com>
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 <CALAdGNSM8ARtrd5ZHBtOF8Srq8K3wEmiodgbLR_oRJj8a1Q+Lw@mail.gmail.com>
 <004501d8b8cb$74ce7930$5e6b6b90$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTTSpY5T11kinWZb08Q70nVDQ6f30A-YvcmkvfGTHi7sA@mail.gmail.com>
 <009301d8b8dd$c1a181a0$44e484e0$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNS81vyAJcOSq9-PPCSamiC6uBB1=hSs=kgR0k4VHG-vmQ@mail.gmail.com>
 <001b01d8b90d$e4b80c10$ae282430$@rainier66.com>
 <CALAdGNTaT=u8xFEqigg7ZQAHiLjh5ZWp1tgQPAY2pE4Vof-Hbw@mail.gmail.com>
 <005801d8badc$e1a97420$a4fc5c60$@rainier66.com> <000601d8bb3a$6c
 cd22b0$46676810$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <00b801d8bba9$4988f850$dc9ae8f0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Latest numbers just updated a few minutes ago.  The one tropical depression now has about a 50% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 2 days, 80% chance in the next five.

 

We are three days from 2022 moving into second place for the quietest Altantic year, 5 days from moving into first.

 

If we use accumulated cyclonic energy by 29 August as the metric, 2022 is already the quietest year since 1966, but that number doesn?t mean much because September is the big storm month in the Atlantic.

 



 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc <https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2> &fdays=2

 

None of this matters much unless one is interested in scientific anomalies.  This year is going against its orders.  2022 isn?t following the SCIENCE!  It is supposed to be a well above average storm year (it could still turn into that) based on sea surface temperature data, but it might continue being a quiet year.  If so, it rewrites some of the theory on hurricanes, and perhaps sheds light on droughts and heat waves in Europe.  Science geeks love rewriting theory.

 

Go ?Canes!

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Tue Aug 30 01:06:08 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2022 18:06:08 -0700
Subject: [ExI] i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <00b801d8bba9$4988f850$dc9ae8f0$@rainier66.com>
References: <00db01d8b715$605b1dd0$21115970$@rainier66.com>
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 cd22b0$46676810$@rainier66.com>
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Message-ID: <000f01d8bc0c$b08e87f0$11ab97d0$@rainier66.com>

 

NOAA just updated, and it is looking good for the old ?Canes.  One of our systems fizzled, but the other went up from 10% to 20% chance of a name in the next coupla days.

 

Our number one draft pick, which we will call storm-with-no-name, is holding at 50%.

 

 



 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 31 03:10:46 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2022 20:10:46 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes!  was: i got friends in low places
Message-ID: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

Woohooo!

 

The 'Canes have runners on first, second and third, bases loaded!

 

Since 2022 is three days from moving into second and five days from setting
the record for the quietest Atlantic years since 1966, I am showing below
the 5 day outlook.

 

If I use their numbers for probability of becoming a named storm, I get 87%
chance at least one of them will score a name in the next 5 days.

 

If we look at the 3-day outlook, it is a tossup.

 

Go 'Canes!

 

Side note: spike, you're strange, pal, just weird, he said to himself.  Why
the heck are you cheering for a dang storm?  That's psychotic behavior
spike! he opined.  On the contrary spike, spike countered himself.  We might
help determine if Atlantic hurricanes correlate with bringing much-needed
rain and cooler temperatures to Europe.  Now I will grant me, debating
myself in a public forum is vaguely psychotic behavior, however it is a
kinder, gentler form of psychosis, harmless, mildly entertaining perhaps.  I
am entertaining the hell outta myself with it.

 

Go 'Canes!

 

spike

 

 



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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 31 13:39:58 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 06:39:58 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes!  was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <005701d8bd3f$2a05eb90$7e11c2b0$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: go canes! was: i got friends in low places

 

 

 

>.Woohooo!...The 'Canes have runners on first, second and third, bases
loaded!

 

 

Cool, last night was good for the 'Canes.  Now they have three in scoring
position, and two advanced overnight.

 

I recalculated using NOAA's estimates, and found 87% chance of a storm in 5
days and about 82% in the next 2 days.

 

2022 has gone 57 days without a named storm, second place is 59 days,
longest is 61 days.

 

This year has the lowest accumulated cyclonic energy coefficient by 30
August in the 55 years we have good data on that.

 

If the Atlantic storms correlate with rain in Europe, relief might be on the
way.

 

spike

 

 



 

 

 

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 31 19:08:37 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 12:08:37 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes!  was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Subject: go canes! was: i got friends in low places

 

 

 

>.Woohooo!

 

>.The 'Canes have runners on first, second and third, bases loaded!

 

Hey cool, the latest update is (I think) good news.  Reason: the low
pressure system looking most likely to form a named storm is number 3 on the
map shown below.  Notice its position:

 

 



 

This is a good thing, for if a storm or hurricane forms up there that far
north and east, the prevailing winds will push the moisture eastward where
it is needed.

 

I was educated just after they stopped teaching geography in the public
schools, so I don't pretend to know where the heck on the globe the more
obscure countries are, such as.like. "Tannu Tuva" or "Eswatini" or "France"
but if the breeze pushes that moisture from storm 3 over away from the one
country I do recognize by sight, then it must be getting closer to those
other outfits listed above which I think are in need of rain.

 

Next satellite update will be in about 2 hrs.  Stand by for NEWS!

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 31 19:45:11 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 20:45:11 +0100
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, 31 Aug 2022 at 20:11, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Next satellite update will be in about 2 hrs.  Stand by for NEWS!
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I would think you would be more excited about next weekend, with
California 100F temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday!
Get the Pina coladas ready!


BillK

From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 31 20:04:28 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 13:04:28 -0700
Subject: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <007e01d8bd74$e1122b70$a3368250$@rainier66.com>

 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Sent: Wednesday, 31 August, 2022 12:45 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: BillK <pharos at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places

 

On Wed, 31 Aug 2022 at 20:11, spike jones via extropy-chat <
<mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
wrote:

> 

> Next satellite update will be in about 2 hrs.  Stand by for NEWS!

> 

> spike

> _______________________________________________

 

 

I would think you would be more excited about next weekend, with California
100F temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday!

Get the Pina coladas ready!

 

 

BillK

_______________________________________________

 

 

Eh, I see no possibility of cyclones in the Pacific coming to our aid on
that BillK.  There's nothing to get excited about, that I can see.

 

There are a coupla disturbances off the coast of Mexico, but the wind
patterns don't bring those to us up here right along the top edge of the map
shown below:

 



 

The storms that form down there go out to sea and spin up into typhoons out
there, where you never really hear much about them.  They don't wreck
anything and don't bring rain to the continent.  So. no one cares, or even
knows about them really.  The Pacific ocean is really big, plenty of room
for typhoons to rain and blow their eyes out over water, but it never really
made a bit of sense to me: why the hell bother to rain over the ocean?  What
good is that?  Who designed that absurd system?

 

spike

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From spike at rainier66.com  Wed Aug 31 21:49:51 2022
From: spike at rainier66.com (spike at rainier66.com)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 14:49:51 -0700
Subject: [ExI] lng to europe,
 was:  RE:  go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
Message-ID: <00db01d8bd83$99f538e0$cddfaaa0$@rainier66.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of
BillK via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] go canes! was: i got friends in low places

On Wed, 31 Aug 2022 at 20:11, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Next satellite update will be in about 2 hrs.  Stand by for NEWS!
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


I would think you would be more excited about next weekend, with California
100F temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday!
Get the Pina coladas ready!


BillK
_______________________________________________



BillK, or anyone else who is knowey on this topic: we have been hearing that
Germany is concerned about fuel shortages this winter with uncertainty
regarding supply of commie natural gas.  Well, we have lotsa natural gas
over here and we could liquify the stuff and ship it over.  If what I am
reading isn't a gross exaggeration, liquified natural gas will be worth a
cubic buttload.  If so, and the Germans pay a lotta marks this winter, it
will help convince them to take up with the nukes again, along with the
other nations over there, and the result will be a cleaner more secure
planet, ja?

spike


From pharos at gmail.com  Wed Aug 31 22:27:53 2022
From: pharos at gmail.com (BillK)
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2022 23:27:53 +0100
Subject: [ExI] lng to europe,
 was: RE: go canes! was: i got friends in low places
In-Reply-To: <00db01d8bd83$99f538e0$cddfaaa0$@rainier66.com>
References: <000401d8bce7$443d87a0$ccb896e0$@rainier66.com>
 <004f01d8bd6d$134e1980$39ea4c80$@rainier66.com>
 <CAL_armgncF0msbvOPBSLQwK0qA26CL3mxaDS0=JT3=OO3byNVA@mail.gmail.com>
 <00db01d8bd83$99f538e0$cddfaaa0$@rainier66.com>
Message-ID: <CAL_armi8FuxNxa+q5U49q=YN-c9paO24taCugZimh53Bsgq4GQ@mail.gmail.com>

On Wed, 31 Aug 2022 at 22:53, spike jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> BillK, or anyone else who is knowey on this topic: we have been hearing that
> Germany is concerned about fuel shortages this winter with uncertainty
> regarding supply of commie natural gas.  Well, we have lotsa natural gas
> over here and we could liquify the stuff and ship it over.  If what I am
> reading isn't a gross exaggeration, liquified natural gas will be worth a
> cubic buttload.  If so, and the Germans pay a lotta marks this winter, it
> will help convince them to take up with the nukes again, along with the
> other nations over there, and the result will be a cleaner more secure
> planet, ja?
>
> spike
> _______________________________________________


Yes, even the idiot politicians currently in charge of UK and Europe
are gradually realising that you can't run an economy on windmills and
solar panels. Unfortunately, they have already agreed to phase out oil
and natural gas.
The anti-Russian sanctions just make a bad situation even worse.
So there are now the beginnings of a move back to nuclear power
{which the idiots had also started to phase out).
But next winter is looking like freezing and going hungry for the UK and Europe.


BillK