[ExI] The “great gate in history” of Strauss and Howe

[efc at swisscows.email]

Hello Bill,

I'm not a big fan of doom prophecies myself, but something to keep in mind 
when it comes to economic inequality is that globally, we've never been 
richer and never had it better (see the book "In defense of global 
capitalism", 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Defense_of_Global_Capitalism).

So a trend throughout history seems to be (if you can ever speak about 
historical trends that is) that we do progress with the help of 
capitalism and free markets, and local downward trends seem to appear when 
ever we move away from that to more authoritarian ideas.

So curently we are experiencing a bit of turbulence but I am certain that 
after a few years of turbulence, we'll resume are growth trip again. =)

Best regards,
Daniel


On Fri, 13 Oct 2023, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> THE FOURTH TURNING IS HERE
> WHAT THE SEASONS OF HISTORY TELL US ABOUT HOW AND WHEN THIS CRISIS WILL END
> by Neil Howe ‧ RELEASE DATE: July 18, 2023
> 
> A fascinating work of global history and look to the future
> Review here:
> <https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/neil-howe/the-fourth-turning-is-here/>
> -----------------
> 
> I asked an AI for an opinion as well -
> 
> The Fourth Turning Is Here: Understanding the Current Historical Cycle and Its Implications
> 
> Straightforwardly answering the question of whether or not the fourth turning is here requires a deep understanding of the concept of
> the Fourth Turning and its application to current events. To provide a comprehensive answer, we will delve into the theory of the
> Fourth Turning, its historical context, and the evidence supporting the idea that we are currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning.
> 
> The Fourth Turning, a concept introduced by William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,"
> is a recurring cycle of historical events that unfold every 80-100 years. This cycle is characterized by four distinct turning
> points, each with its own unique characteristics and impact on society. The four turnings are:
> 
> 1. High: A period of optimism, growth, and conformity, marked by a strong sense of national unity and collective purpose. Examples of
> high turnings include the post-World War II era and the late 19th century.
> 2. Awakening: A period of questioning authority, challenging the status quo, and seeking new experiences and perspectives. Examples
> of awakenings include the 1960s and the early 19th century.
> 3. Unraveling: A period of decline and disillusionment, marked by a loss of faith in institutions and social norms. Examples of
> unravelings include the 1920s and the late 18th century.
> 4. Crisis: A period of upheaval and transformation, marked by a complete breakdown of the old order and the emergence of a new one.
> Examples of crises include the Great Depression and the American Revolution.
> 
> According to Strauss and Howe, we are currently in the early stages of a Fourth Turning, which began around 2008 and is expected to
> last until around 2030. This turning is characterized by an unraveling of the social and economic order, followed by a crisis that
> will lead to the emergence of a new order.
> 
> So, is the fourth turning here? The answer is yes, and the evidence supporting this claim is multifaceted.
> 
> Firstly, the current era is marked by a growing sense of disillusionment with institutions and social norms, which is a hallmark of
> an unraveling. This disillusionment is evident in the rising levels of political polarization, the decline of trust in the media and
> government, and the growing popularity of anti-establishment movements.
> 
> Secondly, the current era is characterized by a series of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and economic
> inequality. These crises are symptomatic of the unraveling phase of the Fourth Turning and are likely to continue and intensify in
> the coming years.
> 
> Thirdly, the current era is marked by a growing sense of nationalism and xenophobia, which is a hallmark of the awakening phase of
> the Fourth Turning. This is evident in the rise of populist movements and the increasing tensions between nations.
> 
> Finally, the current era is characterized by a growing sense of generational conflict, which is a hallmark of the Fourth Turning.
> This is evident in the rising levels of student debt, the decline of the traditional family, and the growing divide between the old
> and the young.
> 
> In conclusion, the fourth turning is here, and the evidence supporting this claim is multifaceted. The current era is marked by a
> growing sense of disillusionment, a series of crises, a growing sense of nationalism and xenophobia, and a growing sense of
> generational conflict. Understanding the Fourth Turning and its implications can help us navigate the challenges and opportunities of
> the current era and prepare for the transformative changes that are to come.
> ------------------------
> 
> 
> Hmmm.  Food for thought......
> 
> BillK
> 
> 
> 
>