[extropy-chat] Who Anticipated Internet Exploding in 90s?

[Harvey Newstrom]

Robin Hanson wrote,
> On 12/3/2003 Harvey Newstrom responded:
> >I suggest reading through "A Brief History of the Internet" at 
> ><http://www.isoc.org/internet/history/brief.shtml>.  It has references 
> >to all the milestones in Internet creation, including white papers, 
> >conferences, etc.
> 
> That is a history of who did what when, not of who predicted what when.

Wow.  Remind me not to have you do any research for me!  :-)

You think that the Internet was based on past network usage and not build on
wide-spread predictions of how the future network would be used and what it
had to support?  All requirements documents are based on future predictions.
There are technical predictions of load, spread, and acceptance.  There are
social predictions about home use, cultural changes, and usefulness.  There
were business predictions of privatization, business use and international
commerce.  There were persuasion papers trying to gain funding, convince
congress, and gain corporate support.  Of *course* they are chock full of
predictions about how great and widespread the internet was going to be in
the future!

Some quick examples of documents listed in the reference you dismissed:

In 1962: J.C.R. Licklider of MIT writes a paper describing a globally
connected "Galactic Network" of computers.  He predicts what they can do and
how they will be used.

The congressional record of 1986 quotes Al Gore as saying, "America's
Highways transport people and materials across the country.  Federal
freeways connect with state highways which connect in turn with county roads
and city streets.  To transport data and ideas, we will need a
telecommunications highway connecting users coast to coast, state to state,
city to city.  The study required in this amendment will identify the
problems and opportunities the nation will face in establishing that
highway."

In 1988, the NSF sponsors a series of workshops at Harvard on the
commercialization and privatization of the Internet.  They predicted what it
would be like and how it could occur.

Also in 1988, Kahn et al. write a paper "Towards a National Research
Network."  It predicted the future of the Internet.

In 1988, the congressional record Gore proposing a bill to create the
internet, "The act would provide for a 3-gigabit-per-second national
network, develop federal standards, take into account user views, examine
telecommunications policy, build an information infrastructure composed of
databases and knowledge banks, create a national software corporation to
develop important software programs, establish a clearinghouse to validate
and distribute software, promote artificial intelligence databases, increase
research and development projects, study export controls affecting
computers, review procurement policies to stimulate the computer industry,
and enhance computer science education programs."

The Dec. 29, 1988 edition of the New York Times predicted, "Computer
scientists and Government officials are urging the creation of a nationwide
"data superhighway" that they believe would have a dramatic economic impact,
rivaling that of the nation's interstate highway system.  This highway would
consist of a high-speed fiber-optic data network joining dozens of
supercomputers at national laboratories and making them available to
thousands of academic and industry researchers around the country...."

Legislation introduced in October by Senator Albert Gore, Democrat of
Tennessee, included initial financing for development and construction of a
National Research Network. Backers of the measure say that Federal financing
for the project is necessary to develop the technology and convince industry
that vastly speedier computer networks are commercially viable.

In 1989, Gore told a House committee, "I genuinely believe that the creation
of this nationwide network and the broader installation of lower capacity
fiber optic cables to all parts of this country, will create an environment
where work stations are common in homes and even small businesses with
access to supercomputing capability being very, very widespread. It's sort
of like, once the interstate highway system existed, then a college student
in California who lived in North Carolina would be more likely to buy a car,
drive back and forth instead of taking the bus. Once that network for
supercomputing is in place, you're going to have a lot more people gaining
access to the capability, developing an interest in it. That will lead to
more people getting training and more purchases of machines."  (Inventing Al
Gore, p. 217).

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>