[extropy-chat] FWD [UASR] Are falling ice balls a product of global warming?

Fri Dec 12 04:09:06 UTC 2003

Are falling ice balls a product of global warming?

< http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/03344/249503.stm >

Wednesday, December 10, 2003
By Michael Woods, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

BARCELONA, Spain -- A Spanish-American scientific team will be scanning 
the United States this winter for what might be one of the weirdest 
byproducts of global warming: great balls of ice that fall from the sky.

The baffling phenomenon was first detected in Spain three years ago and 
has since been reported in a number of other countries, including the 
United States. So scientists now plan to monitor in a systematic way what 
they call "megacryometeors" -- or great balls of ice that fall from the 
sky.

"I'm not worried that a block of ice may fall on your head," said Dr. 
Jesus Martinez-Frias of the Center for Astrobiology in Madrid. "I'm 
worried that great blocks of ice are forming where they shouldn't exist."

Ice balls, which generally weigh 25 to 35 pounds but can be much bigger, 
have punched holes in the roofs of houses, smashed through car 
windshields, and whizzed right past people's heads.

Incidents like those may be just the beginning, according to Dr. David 
Travis, who chairs the department of geography and geology at the 
University of Wisconsin-Whitewater.

"If megacryometeor formation is linked to global warming, as we suspect, 
then it is fair to assume that these events may increase in the future," 
Travis said.

Martinez-Frias pioneered research on megacryometeors in January 2000, 
after ice chunks weighing up to 6.6 pounds rained on Spain for 10 days.

At first, scientists thought the phenomenon was unique to Spain. During 
the past three years, however, they've accumulated strong evidence that 
megacryometeors are falling all around the globe.

More than 50 falls have been confirmed, and researchers believe that's a 
small fraction of the actual number, since others may hit unoccupied areas 
or melt before discovery.

Travis said most megacrymeteor falls occur in January, February and March.

Researchers were able to analyze ice samples from the 2000 incidents, 
thanks to witnesses who kept the material cold. Martinez's team quickly 
ruled out obvious explanations.

The ice balls, for instance, were not frozen water from toilets flushed on 
jetliners. The ice contained no human waste and none of the blue 
disinfectant used in airplane toilets. Air traffic control records showed 
that no planes flew over the areas near the ice falls, so the ice had not 
been shed from aircraft wings.

Chunks of debris from a comet? Again, lab tests showed that ice in 
megacryometeors had the distinctive chemical signature of ice in ordinary 
terrestrial hailstones.

Hail forms in the updrafts and downdrafts of thunderstorms. The updrafts 
carry droplets of super-cooled water, which freeze. More droplets hit the 
frozen particles as winds toss them around. The water freezes instantly 
and the hailstone grows, layer by layer.

Most hailstones weigh a fraction of an ounce, with 27 ounces the U. S. 
record.

Megacryometeors show the telltale onionskin layering seen in hailstones. 
They also contain dust particles and air pockets found in hail. But they 
are formed in cloudless skies, a notion that defies research on hail 
formation.

"Scientists are naturally reluctant to say something never can happen," 
said Charles Knight, a hail expert at the University Corporation for 
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "But oh, dear. I would be tempted 
to say 'never' on this."

Knight has reviewed scientific papers on megacryometeors, and thinks the 
explanation that cites unusual atmospheric conditions possibly linked to 
global warming, is probably wrong, although he doesn't have a better one.

Global warming involves higher temperatures on Earth's surface, but 
creates colder conditions in the stratosphere, the uppermost layer of the 
atmosphere, according to Travis.

He has linked megacryometeor events to unusual conditions in the 
"tropopause," the boundary between the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) 
and the stratosphere. Located 5 to 9 miles above the surface, the 
tropopause marks the limit of clouds and is important in the development 
of storms.

Global warming may be making the tropopause colder, moister and more 
turbulent, Travis said, creating conditions in which ice crystals grow 
like ordinary hailstones in thunderclouds.

(Michael Woods can be reached at mwoods at nationalpress.com or 
1-202-662-7072.)
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