[extropy-chat] BIO: Chimps and Humans

[Harvey Newstrom]

Here is a perfect example of non-exponential progress that I was arguing a
few weeks ago.  Advancing science does not always advance our goals.

In this case, the predicted dates for understanding the differences between
chimps and humans will have to be pushed back due to all the added
complexity we have just discovered.  Even when applying Moore's law to
scientific progress (which is dubious), exponential growth in science does
not translate into exponential acceleration of future predictions.
Sometimes the list of things we don't know grows faster than the list of
things we do know.

Specifically, there are a lot more genes different between chimps and humans
than we thought.  Furthermore, many of the old genes that we thought were
the same have apparently taken on new functions in humans.  Also, the tests
were used in this research turned out to only work about 25% of the time.
Even the greatly expanded estimates of complexity may be greatly under
measured.  The genetic differences between chimps and humans are a magnitude
more complex and a magnitude less understood than we thought before this
research.  Those complexities may expand another magnitude before we are
finished.

Instead of being a major step toward completing our understanding, this
research opens up a whole array of unsuspected areas of new research that
will have to be undertaken.

From
<http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/12/science/12GENO.html?pagewanted=print>:
> Biologists have long supposed that if they could identify the genes that
> changed in the evolutionary lineage leading from the joint ancestor to
> people, they would understand the genetic basis of how people differ from
> chimps and, hence, the essence of what makes humans human.
>
> Because the sequence of DNA units in the two genomes is 98.8 percent
> identical, it seemed that just a handful of genes might define the essence
> of humanity.
[....]
> But the process of transforming the joint human-chimp ancestor, who was
> probably a very chimpanzeelike creature, into a human seems much more
> complicated in light of the new analysis.
[....]
> the differences at the genetic level need to be checked in terms
> of biology. Only in rare cases like that of FOXP2 is the link between
> the accelerated genes and actual biology more than a guess at present. 

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
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