[extropy-chat] NEWS: They got him!

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Charlie Stross <charlie at antipope.org> wrote:
> 
> On 14 Dec 2003, at 13:26, Technotranscendence wrote:
> 
> > I can say something that seems obvious.  The way he was found and
> the
> > fact that he was not surrounded by loyalists and supporters seems
> to
> > mean he was playing only a small role if any in the resistance to
> the
> > occupation.  This, of course, doesn't mean it's not a psychological
> > victory, but I don't think the guerillas are going to roll over and
> > play dead now.
> 
> Agreed, and more: I suspect fear of Saddam getting back into power 
> somehow was a *restraining influence* on the resistance, especially 
> among the shi'ites. Now that he's definitively out of play, it's 
> possible the guerilla attacks will get *worst* (because there's no 
> longer any chance of him somehow re-establishing his dictatorship).
> 

I think he was hiding in the spider hole only because of the ongoing
offensive in the immediate area of Tikrit. A large part of the feeling
of US illigitimacy among Iraqis was specifically because we hadn't
caught Saddam. Now that we have him, there may be some remaining
resistance, but they have lost legitimacy I think even with their own.
THere will be some who claim the guy they caught was not Saddam and was
one of his impersonators, like there are those who still cling to the
belief that TWA 800 was shot down by a missile, but will be
increasingly marginalized.

I had predicted  in spring of this year, after other predictions came
true, that gas prices would fall to around $10/bbl following a slow
rise to high levels as the US consolidated its hold. Their
consolidation has taken longer than I expected, due in part to Saddams
eluding capture, but also because other oil producing nations are
assisting in the sabotage of Iraqi production reconstruction. Prices
are now $33/bbl and are expected to immediately drop by $.50 monday.
Any significant drop to the levels I predicted will require that an
Iraqi government resume sovereignty and that sabotage of oil facilities
cease.

Odds of these two things happening have improved considerably now that
Saddam is captured. I don't think that this will prevent other nations
from attempting to continue the sabotage.

=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
                                       - Gen. John Stark
"Fascists are objectively pro-pacifist..."
                                       - Mike Lorrey
Do not label me, I am an ism of one...
Sado-Mikeyism: http://mikeysoft.zblogger.com

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