[extropy-chat] CRN: Gray Goo Is A Small Issue

[MIKE TREDER]

GRAY GOO IS A SMALL ISSUE

http://crnano.org/BD-Goo.htm

Fear of runaway nanobots, or "gray goo", is more of a public issue than a 
scientific problem. Gray goo as a result of out of control nanotechnology 
played a starring role in an article titled "The Gray Goo Problem" by 
Lawrence Osborne in Sunday's New York Times Magazine (12/14/03). This 
article and other recent fictional portrayals of gray goo, as well as 
statements by scientists such as Richard Smalley, are signs of significant 
public concern. But although biosphere-eating goo is a gripping story, 
current molecular manufacturing proposals contain nothing even similar to 
gray goo. The idea that nanotechnology manufacturing systems could run amok 
is based on outdated information.

The earliest proposals for molecular manufacturing technologies echoed 
biological systems. Huge numbers of tiny robots called "assemblers" would 
self-replicate, then work together to build large products, much like 
termites building a termite mound. Such systems appeared to run the risk of 
going out of control, perhaps even “eating” large portions of the biosphere. 
Eric Drexler warned in 1986, "We cannot afford certain kinds of accidents 
with replicating assemblers."

Since then, however, Drexler and others have developed models for making 
safer and more efficient machine-like systems that resemble an assembly line 
in a factory more than anything biological. These mechanical designs were 
described in detail in Drexler's 1992 seminal reference work, "Nanosystems", 
which does not even mention free-floating autonomous assemblers.

Replicating assemblers will not be used for manufacturing. Factory designs 
using integrated nanotechnology will be much more efficient at building 
products, and a nanofactory is nothing like a gray goo nanobot. A stationary 
tabletop factory using only preprocessed chemicals would be both safer and 
easier to build. Like a drill press or a lathe, such a system could not run 
wild. Systems like this are the basis for responsible molecular 
manufacturing proposals. To evaluate Eric Drexler's technical ideas on the 
basis of gray goo is to miss the far more important policy issues created by 
general-purpose nanoscale manufacturing.

A gray goo robot would face a much harder task than merely replicating 
itself. It would also have to survive in the environment, move around, and 
convert what it finds into raw materials and power. This would require 
sophisticated chemistry. None of these functions would be part of a 
molecular manufacturing system. A gray goo robot would also require a 
relatively large computer to store and process the full blueprint of such a 
complex device. A nanobot or nanomachine missing any part of this 
functionality could not function as gray goo.

Development and use of molecular manufacturing will create nothing like gray 
goo, so it poses no risk of producing gray goo by accident at any point. 
However, goo type systems do not appear to be ruled out by the laws of 
physics, and we cannot ignore the possibility that someone could 
deliberately combine all the requirements listed above. Drexler's 1986 
statement can therefore be updated: We cannot afford criminally 
irresponsible misuse of powerful technologies. Having lived with the threat 
of nuclear weapons for half a century, we already know that.

Gray goo eventually may become a concern requiring special policy. However, 
goo would be extremely difficult to design and build, and its replication 
would be inefficient. Worse and more imminent dangers may come from 
non-replicating nano-weaponry. Since there are numerous greater risks from 
molecular manufacturing that may happen almost immediately after the 
technology is developed, gray goo should not be a primary concern. Focusing 
on gray goo allows more urgent technology and security issues to remain 
unexplored.

For more information on the specific dangers of molecular manufacturing, see 
http://CRNano.org/dangers.htm.

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is headquartered in New York. CRN 
is an affiliate of World Care, an international, non-profit, 501(c)(3) 
organization.

CONTACT:

Chris Phoenix, Director of Research
cphoenix at CRNano.org

Mike Treder, Executive Director
mtreder at CRNano.org

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
http://CRNano.org

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