[extropy-chat] MNT and energy. (was Re: Social Implications of Nanotech)

[Dan Clemmensen]

Mike Lorrey wrote:

>--- Dan Clemmensen <dgc at cox.net> wrote:
>  
>
>>When I said I do not advocate solar, geothermal, and sophisticated 
>>conservation using current technology,  I was referring to a purely 
>>local implementation.
>>    
>>
>
>Local as in what? That is a rather broad brush, don't you think? There
>are actually quite a number of local areas where solar is extremely
>cost effective, specifically in more remote locales where grid access
>is not at all cost effective. Essentially, if you have to spend more
>than $10k to get grid electric service to your dwelling, then solar is
>more cost effective, and that is just photovoltaic. Passive solar is
>actually even more cost effective, as it doesn't require expensive
>solar cells, doesn't produce toxic chemicals as waste of the
>manufacturing process, and enjoys a practical efficiency 3-8 times
>higher than photovoltaic systems, though it is essentially only
>applicable to heating and cooling.
>
>  
>
Sorry, Mike. I was actually generalizing from a VREY local perspective, 
namely my current house. I already have an electrical service entrance 
and natural gas service. I live in a big house on a 2-acre lot in the 
suburbs, and I am fairly lazy. I live at approximately 39 deg 2 minutes 
N, 77 deg 18 min W (suburbs of Washington DC.) East coast boreal forest,

For me, It makes no economic sense to go off-grid, or to spend much 
time, effort, or money (in that order) to install solar, geothermal, 
recycling, or sophisticated heat management equipment.  On the other 
hand, if the capital cost was extremely low and if installation was 
easy, I could save a bunch of money. In particular, If my ACME(tm) 
fabricator could spit out a set of parts that I could install myself, I 
would go off-grid and save a bunch of money immediately. By contrast, 
with today's technology  I would need to find a contractor capable of 
dealing with fairly exotic technology and pay approximately $50,000 to 
go completely off-grid. My payback time would be in excess of 20 years, 
which is well past any reasonable estimate of the Singularity. This 
means that the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly strategy 
is to ocntinue to pay for electricity and gas.

I think that my situation (existing house, already on-grid) is typical 
of most people in developed countries. You may be correct that three are 
quite a number of locales that can benefit. The question is: what 
percentage of the population lives there?