[extropy-chat] Harv's Explanation for Slow Progress

[Harvey Newstrom]

Hal Finney asks why no assemble design 10 years later.

I would also like to ask:
Why no singularity 10 years after somebody predicted it on this list?
Why no AI?  Why no uploading?  Why no robots doing our laundry?  Why no
flying cars?  Why no space colonies?  Why no immortality pills?

Many predictions have been made in this forum ten years ago.  I am not sure
that any of the big predictions have actually come true.  Why are the
expected technological breakthroughs not occurring as fast as predicted?

Here is the common expectation:

1. Technological progress is advancing at exponential rates.
2. We are completing subtasks toward major technological breakthroughs at
those same ever-increasing rates.
3. Therefore, the expected arrival of these breakthroughs can be predicted
to be accelerating toward the present at the same ever-increasing
exponential rate of technological progress.

Here is my explanation for why this isn't happening:

1. As technological progress is advancing at exponential rates, the known
technological complexities also increases at exponential rates.
2. As we are completing subtasks toward major technological breakthroughs at
ever-increasing rates, we are also adding newly discovered subtasks at
exponential rates.
3. Therefore, the expected arrival of these breakthroughs cannot be
predicted, we are simultaneously adding and subtracting subtasks at
exponential rates.  The expected arrival of these breakthroughs can be
approaching or receding or holding steady, and the speed of these changes
will be the difference between the two exponential rates, resulting in a
slow non-exponential rate of change.

CONCLUSION:
Technology is progressing at exponentially increasing rates.
Accomplishments are being made at exponentially increasing rates.  But the
predicted breakthroughs that we are expecting will be slow in coming and may
actually be receding into the future as our predictions get better.

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
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