[extropy-chat] Harvey's wager

[Brett Paatsch]

Robert wrote:

> I don't think the ExI list is the best place to wager
> on long term predictions.  You want to go to:
>  http://www.longbets.org/
>
> There are not many places where you can find both
> Esther and Freeman Dyson (as well as a number
> of other significant people) placing bets!

The thing about a public bet is that in order for it to 
be determinable the matter under consideration has
to be.

People can throw opinions and speculations past
each other for ever but if none of them is in the
form of a falsifiable hypothesis there is nothing concrete
on which to build - its all just sound and fury.

As the very last thing to happen in a bet is the 
exchange of money (often to a third party for holding)
it seems that a list could have a policy of no betting 
and still have a great way of converting bs into practical 
useable stuff. Then if those who want to actually bet
do so they would have to take it offline. But in the
meantime (in the process of formulating the bet) the 
list gets the benefit of seeing what are the more
practical suggestions and what are not. And who
is talking rot and who is not :-) Chances are most
folk would find the challenge to put some of their
thoughts into testable form - well challenging, but
that could be good. 

Just a thought. I'm pretty much done with it now.  

Regards,
Brett 
[who can bet elsewhere and wonders what Esther (?)
would be betting with Dyson] 
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