[extropy-chat] Scientific Analysis [was: The Consensus]

[Robert J. Bradbury]

On Sat, 29 Nov 2003, Mike Lorrey wrote:

> Conversely, here in NH, the Free State, which has one of the highest
> rates of gun posession in the world, we have homicide rates and violent
> crime rates comparable to Switzerland, and one of the lowest property
> crime rates in the world.

Sorry Mike, as much as I may lean in the direction of some of your
political perspectives, I have to pull the "rational argument" card
out of the hat.

One thing I've learned over and over again in science classes is
"correlation is not causation".  I've lived in Manhattan and
have relatives with homes or camps in both N.H. and Maine.
So we will assume I have some experience to comment on your
comments.

The homicide (or violent crime) rates in N.H. may simply be due
to lower population density.  (I've also been to Switzerland
and would say that it tends towards lower population density
as well.)  Many locations in New England are lower income
locations so it may simply be the case that there is little
or no payoff in resorting to violent crime.  Alternatively
there may be a greater sense of "community".  In places like
N.H., Maine, and Switzerland there may be a greater need to
rely on people living near oneself -- so one may form stronger
interdependencies with them which may increase community support
and decrease the need to resort to violent crime.  Furthermore
one may not have as many opportunities to meet people (male or female)
with whom one might form long term relationships so one tends to
place a higher value on the relationships that one has thus
diminishing situations that might lead to domestic violence.

So there is a brief set of possibilities that might explain
your claim for reduced homicide rates without having to rely
on guns as the explanation.  A good analysis would come up
with a complete list of variables and try to explain what
fraction of reduced homicide rates could be explained by
"fear of being shot by the person one is trying to kill".

As it is you are comparing apples with oranges -- homicide
rates are not comparable to property crime rates.  One may
be motivated by rage while the other is motivated by need
for personal gain.

Robert