[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

[Alejandro Dubrovsky]

On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 12:42 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:

> On Sunday, April 4, 2004, at 12:11 pm, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:
> 
> > On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 11:35 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> >
> >>> Hal Finney wrote:
> >>>> For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around
> >>>> 2023-2025 for the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize,
> >>>> which requires the construction of a couple of small nanotech-type
> >>>> devices, http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .
> >>
> >> For reference, the FX ideas futures game predicted all of the 
> >> following
> >> around 1996-2003:
> >>
> > Don't know what your definition of 'predicted' is Harvey, but most of
> > the ones in the list i've checked (i've only checked about 15-20), 
> > never
> > got above 50%,
> 
> The "prediction" given by Hal is around 20%.  I chose other claims that 
> were "predicted" at the same or higher level.  You are absolutely right 
> that these are not good thresholds.

No, you are misreading the bet.  The bet pays x cents where the feynman
prize is claimed on the year 2000 + x, so the fact that the bet is at
21-25% means that market beleives the prize will be claimed between
2021-2025.

alejandro