[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

[Harvey Newstrom]

On Sunday, April 4, 2004, at 12:11 pm, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:

> On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 11:35 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>
>>> Hal Finney wrote:
>>>> For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around
>>>> 2023-2025 for the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize,
>>>> which requires the construction of a couple of small nanotech-type
>>>> devices, http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .
>>
>> For reference, the FX ideas futures game predicted all of the 
>> following
>> around 1996-2003:
>>
> Don't know what your definition of 'predicted' is Harvey, but most of
> the ones in the list i've checked (i've only checked about 15-20), 
> never
> got above 50%,

The "prediction" given by Hal is around 20%.  I chose other claims that 
were "predicted" at the same or higher level.  You are absolutely right 
that these are not good thresholds.

--
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec 
Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>