[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

Alejandro Dubrovsky alito at organicrobot.com
Sun Apr 4 16:11:21 UTC 2004


On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 11:35 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:

> > Hal Finney wrote:
> >> For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around
> >> 2023-2025 for the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize,
> >> which requires the construction of a couple of small nanotech-type
> >> devices, http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .
> 
> For reference, the FX ideas futures game predicted all of the following 
> around 1996-2003:
> 
Don't know what your definition of 'predicted' is Harvey, but most of
the ones in the list i've checked (i've only checked about 15-20), never
got above 50%, or started high and dropped much before the actual due
date of the bet.  Some never even made it past 20%.  I think it more
accurate to say 'the FX ideas futures games predicted that the following
things would NOT happen':

Notes:  only two out of the ones i checked (Unix irrelevant, and Powell
for president) did they get it obviously wrong.  Also, one (Netscape
wins) was correct by the definitions of the bet.

alejandro




More information about the extropy-chat mailing list