[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

Alejandro Dubrovsky alito at organicrobot.com
Sun Apr 4 16:11:21 UTC 2004

On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 11:35 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:

> > Hal Finney wrote:
> >> For reference, the FX idea futures game predicts around
> >> 2023-2025 for the date of awarding the Feynman Grand Prize,
> >> which requires the construction of a couple of small nanotech-type
> >> devices, http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=FyGP .
> For reference, the FX ideas futures game predicted all of the following 
> around 1996-2003:
Don't know what your definition of 'predicted' is Harvey, but most of
the ones in the list i've checked (i've only checked about 15-20), never
got above 50%, or started high and dropped much before the actual due
date of the bet.  Some never even made it past 20%.  I think it more
accurate to say 'the FX ideas futures games predicted that the following
things would NOT happen':

Notes:  only two out of the ones i checked (Unix irrelevant, and Powell
for president) did they get it obviously wrong.  Also, one (Netscape
wins) was correct by the definitions of the bet.


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