[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

Alejandro Dubrovsky alito at organicrobot.com
Sun Apr 4 18:51:53 UTC 2004

On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 20:01 +0200, Eugen Leitl wrote:

> On Mon, Apr 05, 2004 at 03:45:12AM +1000, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:
> > No, you are misreading the bet.  The bet pays x cents where the feynman
> > prize is claimed on the year 2000 + x, so the fact that the bet is at
> > 21-25% means that market beleives the prize will be claimed between
> > 2021-2025.
> Color me clueless, I never understood what the point of idea futures was.
> Clearly the market can't predict better than single individuals, 

What it was, I think (but i've never read any of Hanson's (or anyone
else that is relevant's) papers so weigh accordingly), was (partially?)
to find out if what you think to be so clearly true is so.  (maybe (my
hypothesis about their hypothesis), good individual predictors exist and
positive feedback, given by points on correct past predictions, gives
them more points to affect future prices which would therefore be more
accurate, if above named good predictors exist)
What it is for most people, my guess, is a game just like chess, quake,
c&c generals, or football.  I play it when i'm reminded of it about it
about once every two years.  Quite entertaining, but slow for an action

> I can also blow my
> money on the roulette wheel, and with better odds at that probably.
No money in the ideasfutures.com version.  But it's a zero sum game, so
better odds than the roulette.

> Getting people interested in their future?

Also, but unlikely to appeal to anyone who wasn't part of the choir to
begin with


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