[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

Harvey Newstrom mail at HarveyNewstrom.com
Mon Apr 5 00:49:51 UTC 2004

On Sunday, April 4, 2004, at 01:45 pm, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:

> No, you are misreading the bet.  The bet pays x cents where the feynman
> prize is claimed on the year 2000 + x, so the fact that the bet is at
> 21-25% means that market beleives the prize will be claimed between
> 2021-2025.

OK, I may be misreading that.  I sorted bets by "due date" and looked 
at the "due date" to see when the claim was supposed to have happened.  
I didn't realize that bets could still be "won" after the due date had 

However, there are still many interesting examples of wrong predictions 
that had high percentages of support in their day:
100%: Original Star Wars rereleased in theatres 
100%: MiniDisks will outsell CDs 
100%:  Terrorists have nuclear weapons 
100%: Hillary Clinton runs for president 
100%: Non-Intel PCs dominate market 
90%: Colin Powell will run for President 
90%: Unix irrelevent <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=UNIX>
85%: Mac clone sales outnumber Mac sales 
80%: Netscape wins browser war 
80%: Steve Jobs leaves Apple 
80%: Linda Tripp goes to jail 
80%: US Balanced Budget 
80%: US Balanced Budget with Republican President 
80%: Clintons divorce 
80%: Hemp legalized in 25% of states 
70%: Same-sex marriages legal in most US states 
60%: Communist Chinese government overthrown 
60%: Newt Gingrich runs for president 
50%: Automated sports umpire instead of human 

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