[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

Alejandro Dubrovsky alito at organicrobot.com
Mon Apr 5 01:53:22 UTC 2004

On Sun, 2004-04-04 at 20:49 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:

> On Sunday, April 4, 2004, at 01:45 pm, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:
> > No, you are misreading the bet.  The bet pays x cents where the feynman
> > prize is claimed on the year 2000 + x, so the fact that the bet is at
> > 21-25% means that market beleives the prize will be claimed between
> > 2021-2025.
> OK, I may be misreading that.  I sorted bets by "due date" and looked 
> at the "due date" to see when the claim was supposed to have happened.  
> I didn't realize that bets could still be "won" after the due date had 
> passed.

They can't, but they can be won before. (Due date for the Feynman prize
claim is 2100)
I think you are not reading the claims, or not looking the graphs.

> However, there are still many interesting examples of wrong predictions 
> that had high percentages of support in their day:
> 100%: Original Star Wars rereleased in theatres 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=SW1b>

This supposedly wasn't a wrong prediction.  It got judged at a 100 (it
paid one cent per million dollars in tickets in the US (up to 100 off

> 100%: MiniDisks will outsell CDs 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=MdCd>

Check the graph, some weird anomaly where it jumped from  2% to about
100 and back instantly. some kind of interface screwup most likely.

> 100%:  Terrorists have nuclear weapons 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Terr>

It was at 100% for less than a day at the start.  Have a look at the

> 100%: Hillary Clinton runs for president 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=HClOff>

Correct (don't read the title, read the claim).  The actual claim is
that she would run for some position int the 2000 election, which did
occur, and it got judged at 100.

> 100%: Non-Intel PCs dominate market 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NIPC>

Another one where it looks like an interface screwup.  Look at the
graph.  It jumps from about 35 to 100 and back instantly (twice though).

> 90%: Colin Powell will run for President 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=CPfP>

Real top value about 80%, but yes, wrong prediction.

> 90%: Unix irrelevent <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=UNIX>

So is this one

> 85%: Mac clone sales outnumber Mac sales 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=MacC>

Only right at the start, quickly drops

> 80%: Netscape wins browser war 
> <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NSWN>

Read the claim. It got judged at 54, so 80% at top is not bad.
You can go through the rest at your own time.   Main point:  don't read
the title, read the details, and look at the graph.


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