[extropy-chat] MARS: Because it is hard
eugen at leitl.org
Thu Apr 15 20:24:54 UTC 2004
On Thu, Apr 15, 2004 at 04:08:47PM -0400, Dan Clemmensen wrote:
> Unless someone can develop and implement a way to actively stop it, the
> Singularity will occur some time between now and 2020 with very high
> probability. Do you think you will get manned spaceflight at a level
While I sympathize with the general sentiment, putting 100% probability
within 16 years is based on no solid data. Singularity takes both molecular
circuitry and AI to occur to allow such magic postulates (within XY years,
while XY<<100). While people work on both, I don't see how one can make
definite predictions about future inventions.
> that can usefully avoid a "bad" Singularity in that timeframe?
> Alternatively, do you believe my estimate of the timeframe is wrong? The
> Singularity research is listed as a desperate and probably futile effort
> to increase the probability of a "good" outcome. Low cost, low
> probability, extremely high payback.
Of course, if any success is high probability of "bad", and Singularity
research increases probability, the payback might be not that good after all.
Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a>
ICBM: 48.07078, 11.61144 http://www.leitl.org
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