[extropy-chat] [SALT] The DEpopulation Problem, this Friday (for forwarding)
pharos at gmail.com
Wed Aug 11 16:38:03 UTC 2004
On Wed, 11 Aug 2004 16:39:24 +0200, Patrick Wilken
<patrick.wilken at nat.uni-magdeburg.de> wrote:
> On 11 Aug 2004, at 16:15, BillK wrote:
> > See my post of 4th August on this subject, where I commented -
> > Looks like the US just has to continue as normal and wait for
> > the rest of the world to dwindle away over the next 50 years.
> You mean the Europe, Australasia, Japan and a few other countries. Not
> the rest of the World. I think you'll find that China and India and
> Latin America are growing just fine. And so would Africa if it wasn't'
> devastated by AIDS.
> And just not to be too picky. Australia's population, for instance, is
> still growing. We are just achieving it by immigration. So hopefully
> we'll avoid or at least mitigate some of the problems countries like
> Germany are going to suffer in the short-to-medium term as the result
> of their restrictive immigration stance. Its an interesting strategy
> really: save all that fuss and bother on spending on education, just
> ship them in once they are ready to work!
Overall, the world population is projected to continue growing up to
2050. My comment was intended to say that the US could watch the
competition dwindle away by 2050.
China is projected to stop growing around 2020. It has the most rapidly
aging population in the world and what new births there are, are
massively skewed towards boy babies.
The numbers in Australia are tiny compared with US, Europe or China.
The point is that, in general, the advanced countries are projected to
reduce and age their populations. It is the less-developed countries and
the USA that are increasing their population.
So, not much competition for the USA there.
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