[extropy-chat] The Simulation Argument (was: Atheists launch inquisition...)

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Hal Finney <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> : Reality may thus contain many levels. Even if it is necessary for
> : the hierarchy to bottom out at some stage..there may be room for a
> : large number of levels of reality, and the number could be
> : increasing over time. (One consideration that counts against
> : the multi-level hypothesis is that the computational cost for
> : the basement-level simulators would be very great. Simulating
> : even a single posthuman civilization might be prohibitively
> : expensive. If so, then we should expect our simulation to
> : be terminated when we are about to become posthuman.)
> 
> My interpretation is that while it is possible for there to be deeply
> nested simulations, the argument does not actually predict this as
> a likely consequence.  Only once we ourselves become posthuman and
> run simulations, would this follow.  Otherwise, it's possible that
> the simulators may choose not to allow nested simulations to run. We
> have
> no knowledge of their motivations, and this possibility is completely
> consistent with our observations and with the simulation argument.

Quite so. However, if only one post-human civilization in each universe
creates only one ancestor simulation, this makes the odds of this
universe being a simulation a 50% gamble. So, either civilizations
never reach post-humanity, or else they produce at least one
simulation.

Even if if 99% of civilizations self-extinct pre-singularity, then this
still means that billions in each universe do transcend.... and even if
those billions do transcend and 99% of those decide it is immoral to
create simulated universes capable of evolving technological
intelligence, then that means that tens of millions in each universe
still do create ancestor universes. If 99% of those decide that it is
too computationally expensive to do more than one simulation, that
still means that hundreds of thousands in each universe do create more
than one simulation.

It is pretty clear that even the most cynical projection still results
in the odds of any universe being a simulation at more than 100,000 to 1.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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