[extropy-chat] double aargh

[Damien Broderick]

At 11:23 AM 12/18/2004 -0600, I wrote, still incorrectly:

>Using pre-screened `star' Ss, Ertel claims a robust success rate averaging 
>70% where 50% +/- is expected by chance.

Sorry, I hadn't been awake long when I wrote that. Ertel's set-up contains 
balls numbered 1 through 5, so the chance likelihood is 0.2, not 0.5. Which 
is why his Ss' results are so impressive.

===================

I'm going to stop now, because I've been winging it from memory instead of 
diligently looking up the actual results. When I said `success rate' which 
implies number of correct guesses) I should have said `excess above mean 
chance expectation'. And his controlled results in that poster were 28.08% 
cf. MCE of 20%, an excess not of 70% but of 40.40% This is still 
impressive, but not as wonderful as I'd suggested.

Damien Broderick