[extropy-chat] Betting Markets

[Brett Paatsch]

Robin Hanson wrote:

> My proposed solution is to create betting markets on scientific
> ideas and on business ideas, so that those with better insight 
> into what ideas will win can at least be rewarded by winning 
> their bets.

I am an analyst that prefers to analyse interesting problems rather
than mundane ones but I need to get paid for doing what I want
to do in order to keep doing it.

If there was a futures market where I could pit my judgement
and analytical skills against others then I could effectively get paid
for performance so long as some folk who are bullish on transhuman
tech are willing to put their money where their mouths are. Currently
there isn't sufficient incentive for me to spend the time critiquing some
of the more interesting ideas that are held up in transhumanist circles. 

And I would just be an instance of a class. This means the ideas 
don't get the criticism they could to winnow out the good from the
bad and accelerate the develpoment and implementation of the
better ones

If you can build a real money market, I'll come, and I'll bet, because
the process of betting will reward me for doing analysis well. And 
whenever I have to pay I will pay for a lesson well learnt and 
financially empower someone I'd be happy to empower. 

I could use the market to hedge risk. I could use the market to 
aggitate to get big mouths both bears and bulls to put up or shut up. 

I can imagine the Smalley, Drexler debate being radically recast
and progress accelerated if scientists (and analysts) had a better
financial reason for joining it. 

What's the main problem at present? Is it that such markets can't
be easily implemented without running awry of gambling laws? 

Regards,
Brett Paatsch