[extropy-chat] Betting Markets

[Robin Hanson]

On 12/20/2004, Brett Paatsch wrote:
>If there was a futures market where I could pit my judgement
>and analytical skills against others then I could effectively get paid
>for performance so long as some folk who are bullish on transhuman
>tech are willing to put their money where their mouths are. ...
>If you can build a real money market, I'll come, and I'll bet, because
>the process of betting will reward me for doing analysis well. ...
>I can imagine the Smalley, Drexler debate being radically recast
>and progress accelerated if scientists (and analysts) had a better
>financial reason for joining it.
>What's the main problem at present? Is it that such markets can't
>be easily implemented without running awry of gambling laws?

Yes, that is the first big hurdle.  After that, then you can make money
to the extent that others are fool enough to think they know more than
they do, and you can resist that failing.  Beyond that, one might
get some of the donations now given to bigshots in the name of promoting
progress, to instead subsidize such markets, which might better accomplish
that goal.


Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323