[extropy-chat] silent night

[Robin Hanson]

On 12/22/2004, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
>>I predict the sun will come up tomorrow.  I will keep making this 
>>prediction everyday for the next year.  Go ahead, collect stats on how 
>>well I do.  Betcha I'm right more often than not.
>
>What exact probability do you assign?  Now you've got me curious.

Well for the purposes of the above discussion all I needed was p/(1-p) >> 1
But if I have to pick a number I'd say p/(1-p) ~ 10^4 to 10^5



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
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