[extropy-chat] silent night

[Eliezer Yudkowsky]

Robin Hanson wrote:
> On 12/22/2004, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> 
>>> I predict the sun will come up tomorrow.  I will keep making this 
>>> prediction everyday for the next year.  Go ahead, collect stats on 
>>> how well I do.  Betcha I'm right more often than not.
>>
>> What exact probability do you assign?  Now you've got me curious.
> 
> Well for the purposes of the above discussion all I needed was p/(1-p) >> 1
> But if I have to pick a number I'd say p/(1-p) ~ 10^4 to 10^5

Interesting.  That was just about exactly my own answer - 99.98% to 
99.999%.  Though as we may only make a single bet to sum up our 
uncertainty, I would say 99.99%.

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence