[extropy-chat] silent night

[Harvey Newstrom]

On Dec 23, 2004, at 12:05 AM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:

> Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>> On Dec 22, 2004, at 11:27 PM, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
>>> Hal Finney wrote:
>>>
>>>> How the heck can you guys say that there is as much as one chance in
>>>> ten thousand that the sun won't rise tomorrow?  The sun has after 
>>>> all
>>>> risen for much more than 10,000 days.  That's like 30 years' worth.
>>>
>>> That was before people started playing around with AI.  99.99% would 
>>> correspond to a 50% chance of a rogue AI disassembling the Sun in 
>>> the next 20 years, with the probability distributed evenly over time 
>>> (Poisson process).
>> I will bet any amount of money that the sun will still exist 20 years 
>> from now.
>
> Are you sure?  An FAI could take apart the Sun too, y'know.  You could 
> lose the bet, and still be alive to pay it.

I do not believe AI can advance that far in 20 years.  I don't believe 
we will have the technology to disassemble the sun in 20 years.  I 
don't believe reproducing nanites or nanites that can survive the sun's 
heat will be developed in 20 years.  I don't believe a space ship 
capable of carrying such a project to the sun will be available in 20 
years.  I don't believe humans will be rearranging planets and starts 
within 20 years.  I think such predictions are beyond the realm of even 
fantasy within 20 years.  I wouldn't even read a science fiction story 
that had such plot elements within 20 years.  It is too unbelievable.

And I will bet any amount of money against it, and retire rich in 20 
years.

--
Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
CISSP, ISSAP, ISSMP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC