[extropy-chat] Simulation Argument critique (was fermi's paradox: m/d approach)

[Harvey Newstrom]

Dirk Bruere wrote,
> I think the most likely explanation is the Simulation 
> Argument.

I find the Simulation Argument violates Occam's Razor.  It adds complexity
that is not needed.  It does not help explain any observable phenomenon.  It
also seems to reject all science.  If everything we observe is a simulation,
then the simulation does not have to be constrained to known physical laws.
Everything we think we know is wrong.  Anything is possible, whether science
thinks it is or not.  The acceptance of the Simulation Argument seems to
require a rejection of science.

I also find the statistical analysis of the Simulation Argument to be
suspect.  The claim seems to be that there are more simulations than real
universes because more than one simulation can fit into each universe.  That
is about as useful as claiming we must be inside an atom because there are
so many more atoms than universes.  Any simulation within a universe is
incomplete.  A complete simulation of the entire universe would expand to
take resources in the real universe until a 100% utilization of resources
could produce a 100% perfect simulation of the real universe.  Any lesser
simulation is really a fraction of the size/duration/complexity of the real
universe and should count proportionately less.  In fact, the sum total of
all simulations within a real universe should be less that of the containing
universe.  

The size/duration/complexity of all real universes is larger than the
size/duration/complexity of all their simulations put together.  Unless
simulations tend to take over 100% of a universe's total resources before
the universe's lifespan is half over, real unconsumed resources outnumber
simulated resources.  Even going with the Simulation Argument's faulty
premise, the statistics still don't seem to support the conclusion.

-- 
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
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