[extropy-chat] technological equilibrium

Adrian Tymes wingcat at pacbell.net
Tue Jul 13 06:09:38 UTC 2004

--- Spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
> Has 
> anyone a suggestion, or a mechanism for how an
> advanced 
> society can establish pre-singularity technological
> equilibrium?

I can think of one way, but it only works over short
timespans, and it's unlikely.  Basically, all
scientists in the world get massively unlucky at the
same time.  All the major research projects run into
dead ends, false leads, and (unknown to them) research
paths already investigated by others.  But even if
this does happen, it won't be long before someone
happens across a good, previously unexplored idea, and
off the world goes again.

All other possibilities I see couldn't plausibly
happen for a long enough time that at least one of
true AI or molecular assembly is almost guaranteed to
be realized first.

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