[extropy-chat] Re: Nano-assembler feasibility - scenarios

[Robert J. Bradbury]

On Mon, 29 Mar 2004, Chris Phoenix wrote:

> And at the end of this scenario, we learn that gray goo is impossible--
> a fact that would be very valuable to the nanotech industry, if it turns
> out to be true.  So this scenario looks very acceptable to me, and
> I don't see a need to talk about it further.

Trust me -- gray goo is possible because green goo is possible.
And green goo already exists (e.g. Ebola, SARS, etc.).  What
isn't clear is how fast green or gray goo can adapt -- and that
depends in large part on its concentration and mutation rate.
If it cannot adapt very quickly then it isn't a problem.
If gray goo is dependent on human design then it will probably
be centuries before it even might become a problem.  If it is
dependent on non-human design then you may well have the problem
of AI to wrestle with.  AIs are not gray goo.  AIs are the problem that
humans are inefficient and should simply be eliminated (a Borg
mentality comes to mind).  And AI does not strictly depend on
nanotech in any way.

I personally do not believe one can get effective gray goo unless
one invests millions of person-years of human engineering (not
likely to happen anytime soon) or one allows for self-evolving
AI design engineers.  And that could be a very dangerous prospect.
We are already on the technological fringe of creating self-replicating
life forms (which could have variable mutation and adaptation rates).
If we cross the border into "intelligent" evolving and adapting
life forms then I suspect there may be real problems.  Note the
assertion here -- biotech is a much bigger problem than nanotech.
Simple question: how many *tons* of probably lethal bioweapons
under loose controls are currently stockpiled in Russia?
Do you have an understanding of what the common security systems
are in the country?  (For example I had to laugh at the wax
seals on the doors or locks because they could so simply be
worked around.)

I would assert that CRN (crnano.org) is focused on the wrong
problems.  Much more important are the risks of biotech and AIs
over the next 10-15 years.  Focusing on "gray goo" involves
a very specific assumption that it can be developed or evolve
quickly and there are few arguments for those positions
that cannot be subjected to refutation.

Robert