[extropy-chat] Re: Nano-assembler feasibility - scenarios

[Chris Phoenix]

My first-draft scenario planning approach to addressing the 
uncertainties about molecular manufacturing: Use four scenarios, the 
product of two options: it's workable or it's not, we study it or we 
don't.

1) Molecular manufacturing is unworkable, and we don't study it.  This 
scenario is boring.

2) Molecular manufacturing is unworkable, and we do study it.  We spend 
money on the studies, and eventually evidence accumulates that it's 
unworkable.  In the process, we do some basic research that can be 
applied to other nanotechnologies.  And at the end of this scenario, we 
learn that gray goo is impossible--a fact that would be very valuable to 
the nanotech industry, if it turns out to be true.  So this scenario 
looks very acceptable to me, and I don't see a need to talk about it 
further.

3) Molecular manufacturing is workable, and we study it.  That directly 
opens the door to manufacturing for the cost of raw materials.  Reducing 
the cost of raw materials is an engineering challenge with huge payoff. 
  So we probably win big in this scenario.

4) Molecular manufacturing is workable, and we don't study it.  Then 
someone else develops it first.  They get the huge payoff, and we have 
an unpleasant surprise, because we don't have the technology and there's 
no policy in place to protect us from its negative consequences.

So as far as I can see, whether or not MM is workable, it's better to 
investigate it than not to.  If it's not workable, then not 
investigating produces nothing, but investigating produces basic 
research as well as information useful to the nano industry.  If it is 
workable, then not investigating could be very dangerous, and 
investigating will likely be very productive.

Did I omit an important scenario that would affect this argument?  Did I 
say something you disagree with within the context of any of the scenarios?

Chris

-- 
Chris Phoenix                                  cphoenix at CRNano.org
Director of Research
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology          http://CRNano.org