[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Samantha Atkins]

Since I don't buy things to eat that I can't afford more than one of 
and my taste buds are not that terribly discriminating, I would buy 
whichever one I saw first.  If I cared about the claim I would try both 
and form my own opinion.  Wouldn't most people do the same?

- samantha

On May 19, 2004, at 8:18 AM, Spike wrote:

>
> You wish to buy a gorf but you are unsure of
> what kind to buy.  You ask a number of people and find
> that opinion is divided.  Most say the red gorfs
> and green gorfs are indistinguishable, that they
> taste exactly the same.  A small but vocal minority
> says that red gorfs are better than green gorfs,
> and will even pay much more for them in times of
> red gorf scarcity.  No one is actually arguing
> that the green gorfs are superior, only that they
> are *equal* to the reds in every way.
>
> Which do you buy?  If their prices are equal would
> you bet that the minority *might* be right?  Or that
> there is a small chance they are right?  If even a
> small chance exists, you would choose the red gorf, right?
> Does this constitute a logical fallacy?
>
> I see a compelling reason to not trade envelopes
> in the previous 2 envelope MH paradox, since the mathematical
> expectation is equal, but a small vocal minority insists
> it is good to switch envelopes.  Should that effect my
> decision to trade or stick?  Since it costs me no more
> to get a red gorf, would I not choose a red?  And since
> it costs me nothing to trade envelopes, would I not
> assign a small probability that my reasoning is
> wrong and trade?  Is there a name for this logical
> fallacy?
>
> spike
>
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