[extropy-chat] monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Spike]

monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs
> 
> 
> Since I don't buy things to eat that I can't afford more than one of 
> and my taste buds are not that terribly discriminating, I would buy 
> whichever one I saw first.  If I cared about the claim I 
> would try both and form my own opinion.  Wouldn't most people do the
same?
> 
> - samantha

Surely so, but do not get mired in the details of
the game.  The reason I introduced the red and green
gorfs is to demonstrate an interesting question.  If
most people say red and green gorfs are equal but a
small and perhaps not very credible minority insist
reds are better, while no one is actually claiming the
greens are better, then I would choose a red gorf,
assuming the same price.

Applicability: in the previous two-envelope example, 
one is given an envelope which contains 10 zorgs, and
has the knowledge that the other contains either 5
or 20 zorgs.  A typical bet is double or nothing.
This one is double or half.  Looks like a slam dunk
decision to trade.  I know that this view leads to
paradox and so for some mysterious reason cannot be correct.

Still, a small voice within says "it costs you nothing
to trade, so do it."  If the red gorf costs the same
as the green, then even if you already believe that
they are probably the same, you would choose the
red anyway, since some say reds are better.  If the
reds cost more, I would choose the cheaper green gorf.
If the messenger asked for *any* money for the privelege
of swapping, my mathematical brain would immediately
fall back on what it knows is correct, and would choose
to stick.

I have asked a number of people at my workplace about
the two-envelope problem.  It has been most enlightening,
and more than a little scary, since I have heard so many
different lines of reasoning used to justify the trade-
or-stick decision, and *all of them are incorrect*!  And
I live in a democracy!  And all these illogical yahoos can 
legally vote!  And we are facing a major collective trade-
or-stick decision on a national level!  Oy vey!  {8-|  {8^D

spike