[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

Spike wrote:

> But any *real* Vulcan would swap.
> 

### Since my wife frequently remarks on my remarkable psychological 
similarity to Mr. Spock, let me give the Vulcan advice:

The paradox is not a paradox of probabilities, but a spectacle of 
non-linear attitudes towards measurements of financial value. Humans 
don't really care much about 1 cent, many care a little about 10$ (but 
not a thousand times more), most will care a lot about 10 000 but hardly 
anybody will care about 10^20 $. I would posit that hardly anybody would 
wager 10^8$ to get 10^20 - simply because almost everybody will be 
*satisfied* with what he has already, and risking 9/10ths of it all to 
gain even more is irrational. On the other hand, most would risk 1$ to 
get 10$, because 1$ is almost as close to nothing as a dime but 10$ buys 
you a good desert.

So, if you know the subjective value of the money in the first opened 
envelope, and you know the subjective values of the other options, you 
will choose according to your relative feeling of satisfaction with what 
you have, vs. what you could have. If the true value of the envelope is 
truly unknown, an abstract number, then one should not swap, since 
swapping costs time and effort, but you chance of attaining a given 
level of satisfaction (after you exchange your zorgs for cold hard cash) 
is exactly equal with either course of action.

Rafal