[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

Spike spike66 at comcast.net
Fri May 21 17:43:36 UTC 2004


The whole
> > question has caused me to look at the Schoedinger's cat
> > paradox in a whole new light. 
> - spike
> 
> No, no. The Einstein-de Broglie boxes are much better.
> A friend of mine wrote something, recently, (and forgot
> to mention the most interesting issues !). Let me see,
> yes, here it is http://www.arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0404016
...
> Regards, s.

All right, we can go down that path, and even save
Eliezer's conjecture (if I understand it correctly).

We have been saying one envelope contains twice the
amount in the other, but the ratio can be anything.
Suppose now that we are told one envelope contains
one thousand times the other.  You choose, open, find
ten bucks.  The other now contains either one lousy
cent or a cool ten grand.

Is there anyone here who would not swap?  If so,
how the helllll do you figure?

But what if you open yours and find a cool ten grand?
Now would you swap?  I think I would reason that no
mysterious benefactor is likely to just give me
10 million bucks, I'm really not that nice a guy.  {8^D
I'm already amazed that she would just give me 
10 thousand, shocked I say.  So I would take the money 
and run.  Are there those present who would swap?  
Mathematically it looks like a terrific deal, does 
it not?  And sticking proves Elizer's contention.  
But any *real* Vulcan would swap.

What if you are not told the ratio?  Now it is easy
to see that there is no profit in swapping, regardless
of the amount in your envelope, so there is no point
in even opening it, right?  Choose and envelope and
cheerfully walk away, marvelling at your good fortune.
How does knowing the ratio affect your stick/swap
decision?  Is this not itself a paradox?

OK what if the ratio is one thousand and you choose, open, 
find 10 zorgs?  What if the ratio is one million and you
find 10 zorgs?  I think if we can logically answer this 
question, the paradox disappears, and I can cheerfully
return to at least a functional level of sanity. 

spike




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