[extropy-chat] Re: monty hall paradox again: reds and green gorfs

[Alejandro Dubrovsky]

On Sat, 2004-05-22 at 03:30 +1000, David wrote:

> Spike wrote:
> 
> >> After opening one you still don´t know what a zorg is worth
> >> and you have no further information...
> >
> >
> > This part with which I am not sure I totally agree, for
> > we do have one further, and critically important piece
> > of information: that one of the envelopes contains twice
> > as much as the other. With that information, it seems to
> > me that one need not know the absolute amount in one's own
> > envelope, but rather only to fix the amount somehow, such
> > as by opening it and peering at the number of zorgs.
> 
> 
> 
> The missing information is that you still don´t know the total value
> contained in the envelopes.  You have either 1/3  or 2/3 of that total.
> If you don´t know which you have to average it and call it half.
> Same for the other envelope.  Hence they are of equal value until
> both are opened and the values becomes known.
> 
But you are holding 1/3 of a large total, or 2/3 of a small total.   And
the other envelope has 2/3 of a large total or 1/3 of a small total. 
1/3 large total possible win > 1/3 of small total possible loss,
therefore other envelope is better

(btw, i don't really think that the envelopes are of different values,
but this argument just doesn't seem like a good explanation)

alejandro