[extropy-chat] Looks like a Kerry victory

[Patrick Wilken]

I don't want to be negative, but if you examine the site it is clearly 
too close to call (and the site says as much). Kerry has a slight 
advantage in polling, but statistically this doesn't mean anything 
(i.e., its predictive value is so small to be discountable). Bush had 
an even larger margin in his favor in 2000 just before the election and 
look what happened there.

If you look at the animated map <http://electoral-vote.caida.org/> its 
amazing how over the past few months either candidate could have won 
the election. Even in the last two weeks things have been flip-flopping 
around with first Bush and then Kerry leading over the course of a few 
days.  A comparison of the predicted electoral college votes 
<http://www.electoral-vote7.com/info/graph.html> shows that in the last 
few weeks neither candidate has gained any sort of margin.

Looks to me that either candidate is going to win by the slimmest of 
margins.

best, patrick