[extropy-chat] LP NH:The Wrath-tionality of Kahn

[Mike Lorrey]

--- BillK <pharos at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Tue, 2 Nov 2004 10:58:48 -0800 (PST), Mike Lorrey wrote:
> > For those of you nay-sayers, the NH Public Radio exit poll has
> > Libertarian Rich Kahn getting 11% of the vote in the 2nd district
> > congressional race. This is the best showing of any Libertarian in
> NH
> > history for a federal election, and shows that we can play with the
> big
> > dogs if we get organized and work together in a positive, rational,
> and
> > mature manner. 
> > 
> > It appears that Rich's success is coming at the Democrats expense
> > (despite the conventional wisdom). Paul Hodes exit poll results
> show
> > him getting only 29% of the vote, while Charlie Bass, the perpetual
> > rubber fish of NH politics, continues to repel the competition with
> a
> > solid majority of the vote. This achievement is in keeping with our
> > goal of turning the Democrats into a third party if they continue
> to
> > attack us, rather than working with us on common issues.
> > 
> 
> 
> I see the final results are:
>  Charles F. Bass * (R)	191,031 	59% 
>  Paul Hodes (D)	          123,393 	38% 
>  Richard Kahn (Lib.)	   11,258       3% 
>     	
> So you managed to get 11,258 to vote Lib. This is probably still a
> record for the Lib party, but rather far from turning the Dems into a
> third party.
> 
> Looks like your objective of 20,000 Libs moving to NH will be too
> small on its own to change the state politics. I think you have quite
> a few more years of persuasion ahead of you yet.

I'm actually heartened by that showing. Its still the best in that
congressional district so far, despite a neck and neck presidential
race, with record total turnout, which is when we typically do our
worst. Richard's 3.4% showing is significantly better than the 2002
elections where Rosalie Babiarz got 2.3% with 5051 votes, and the 2000
election, when Brian Chisteson got 2.3% with 6188 votes. This is a 50%
improvement percentage wise, and about a 100% improvement in raw
numbers.

If we were to extrapolate that the 50-60 FSP members who have already
moved here can be correlated to an increase in votes for Libertarians
by 5000-6000, due to increased activism, public perception of
legitimacy and influence, etc.,  this means that 20,000 FSP members
should result in 200,000 votes in this one congressional district for
libertarian candidates when the migration is completed. Double that for
state-wide races and we control the state.

Of course, this is a pretty bold extrapolation to make off of only a
few data points. A diminishing utility curve would likely temper that
significantly. I believe a truer curve will start to take shape over
the next few years. If we could get even 100,000 state-wide votes for
us in any given race we will be competing head to head with the GOP and
Democrats on their own terms, and will command a significant minority
of the legislature. 

I believe once we penetrate the statutory thresholds required for major
party status (4% of the vote in state wide elections) regularly, we
will start to build a popular synergy of legitimacy that won't level
off until we reach at least 20% popularity. We might have done that
this year if our Senate candidate had made it onto the ballot, since
the 1st district is actually much more supportive of us, but our 1st
district congressional candidate's poor ballot access petitioning
screwed that up (in addition to many Democrat dirty tricks).

Past performance in the 1st district has typically been 3.1-3.3%. If
they had shown similar improvement of 50%, they'd have gotten 4.6%-4.9%
this election, statewide we'd have averaged over 4%, and gotten major
party status for the first time since 1996 (when the statutory
threshold was raised from 3% to 4%). This is rather bittersweet to
contemplate, since I just assumed the vice-chairmanship.

So, the FSP is having a significant positive impact. Not as big as
indicated by my irrational exhuberance of yesterday after spending the
day at the polls (I was high on the democratic process, sorry, I'm
still recuperating), but quite significant none the less.

=====
Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=Sadomikeyism


		
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