[extropy-chat] Kerry to win, 2.5 to 1

[Max More]

Cheer up, Eli. If you look in the right place, you *can* find a 
sophisticated and *correct* prediction:

http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/

This collection of indicators has forecast a Bush victory consistently for 
many months. One of the few non-aligned major components was the first 
Delphi poll, but the second and third Delphi's pointed to Bush.

Max

At 04:30 AM 11/3/2004, Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
>Robin Hanson wrote:
>>Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
>
>Today's experiment... failed.
>
>It disturbs me that with millions of dollars to spend and all the 
>sophisticated apparatus of statistics, we can't predict the outcome of an 
>election.  It makes one wonder about the latest study showing that 
>broccoli does (not) prevent cancer.  At least with elections, you find out 
>when you're wrong.  I wonder how much marginal science is similarly bogus.
>
>--
>Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
>Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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