[extropy-chat] Kerry to win, 2.5 to 1

[Eliezer Yudkowsky]

Max More wrote:
> Cheer up, Eli. If you look in the right place, you *can* find a 
> sophisticated and *correct* prediction:
> 
> http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/
> 
> This collection of indicators has forecast a Bush victory consistently 
> for many months. One of the few non-aligned major components was the 
> first Delphi poll, but the second and third Delphi's pointed to Bush.

What would you have given me for the "sophisticated and correct" prediction 
if Kerry had won?

-- 
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence