[extropy-chat] Re: A slow down in Moore's law?

[Christian Weisgerber]

Kevin Freels <cmcmortgage at sbcglobal.net> wrote:

> Subject: A slow down in Moore's law?

Time to remind people again of this paper:

- - - - - - - - - -

The Lives and Death of Moore's Law by Ilkka Tuomi

Abstract:
  Moore's Law has been an important benchmark for developments in
  microelectronics and information processing for over three decades.
  During this time, its applications and interpretations have
  proliferated and expanded, often far beyond the validity of the
  original assumptions made by Moore. Technical considerations of
  optimal chip manufacturing costs have been expanded to processor
  performance, economics of computing, and social development. It
  is therefore useful to review the various interpretations of
  Moore's Law and empirical evidence that could support them.

  Such an analysis reveals that semiconductor technology has evolved
  during the last four decades under very special economic conditions.
  In particular, the rapid development of microelectronics implies
  that economic and social demand has played a limited role in this
  industry.  Contrary to popular claims, it appears that the common
  versions of Moore's Law have not been valid during the last
  decades. As semiconductors are becoming important in economy and
  society, Moore's Law is now becoming an increasingly misleading
  predictor of future developments.

Full article:
http://www.firstmonday.dk/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html

-- 
Christian "naddy" Weisgerber                          naddy at mips.inka.de