[extropy-chat] Re: SIAI: Donate Today and Tomorrow
Acy James Stapp
astapp at fizzfactorgames.com
Sat Oct 23 15:45:02 UTC 2004
> I ask of SIAI's donors: Speak up, and hold your heads high without
shame!
I donated, and here's why:
Odds of SIAI even completing a strong AI: 20%
Odds of SIAI being first: 5%
Odds of SIAI being friendly: 50%
Odds of strong AI bringing about the singularity: 10%
So 0.05% odds, or a 2000:1 payoff. So my donation was ~1/2000 of the
expected financial payoff for being on the good side of a friendly AI.
Sort of like Pascal's wager :)
Acy
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