[extropy-chat] Re: SIAI: Donate Today and Tomorrow

[Acy James Stapp]

> I ask of SIAI's donors:  Speak up, and hold your heads high without
shame!

I donated, and here's why:

Odds of SIAI even completing a strong AI: 20%
Odds of SIAI being first: 5%
Odds of SIAI being friendly: 50%
Odds of strong AI bringing about the singularity: 10%

So 0.05% odds, or a 2000:1 payoff. So my donation was ~1/2000 of the
expected financial payoff for being on the good side of a friendly AI.
Sort of like Pascal's wager :)

Acy