[extropy-chat] Re: SIAI: Donate Today and Tomorrow

[Simon Dawson]

At 04:45 24/10/2004, you wrote:
>> I ask of SIAI's donors:  Speak up, and hold your heads high without
>shame!
>
>I donated, and here's why:
>
>Odds of SIAI even completing a strong AI: 20%
>Odds of SIAI being first: 5%
>Odds of SIAI being friendly: 50%
>Odds of strong AI bringing about the singularity: 10%
>
>So 0.05% odds, or a 2000:1 payoff. So my donation was ~1/2000 of the
>expected financial payoff for being on the good side of a friendly AI.
>Sort of like Pascal's wager :)

That's absolutely classic!! Love the logic.. and thanks for the laugh :)

Si