[extropy-chat] The Long Now: Bets and Predictions Over Time

[Trend Ologist]

Troop withdrawal planning is proceeding but some doubt exists of infusing new blood, there is some doubt of continued recruitment levels for the rest of this decade and into the next; no matter how they shuffle the cards the services can't keep the same troops indefinitely. However if you are optimistic, so am I, since you have an inside glimpse. Let us hope your optimism is not feel-good baseless optimism (the most common sort of optimism).

Alteration of plans: like reducing overseas deployments to peaceful
nations? Just saw in the news that Bush and Japanese PM Koizumi reached
an agreement to reduce the US presence in Japan, especially on Okinawa.
This will free up a significant number of troops, which could either
bolster those in Iraq, build up those in South Korea, or expand the
hunt for bin Laden. 

Prediction: A similar agreement will be forthcoming in europe. US bases
in Britain will be drastically cut back or eliminated, US bases in
Germany will be cut back and/or moved entirely to more sympathetic
countries like Poland. The US will have another 20k-40k troops to put
in the field without a draft by some time in 2006.




		
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