[extropy-chat] can't war protesters do better?

[Keith Henson]

At 06:22 PM 06/08/05 +0100, Dirk wrote:

snip

>Don't worry - the insurgency will die down when the war is officially 
>over... er... when saddam is captured... er... when  elections are held... 
>er... when the handover to a provisional Iraqi govt is made... er... when 
>the new constitution is created... er... when more elections are held... er...
>
>How about - WHEN THE US AND BRITISH FUCK OFF OUT OF IRAQ ALTOGETHER.

Last few years I have developed a *really twisted* way of looking at wars 
and related behavior such as terrorism.

The evolved/ecological "function" of wars was to cut a population back that 
had grown beyond the ability of the ecosystem to support it.

So the psychological mechanisms that turn on war mode in humans will stay 
on till the conditions that turned on war mode are perceived as having changed.

Used to be that when wars killed off a good fraction of a hunter gatherer 
population it was easier for the remaining ones to find game and 
berries.  The easier life made it more profitable for brain mechanisms 
(built by genes) to switch into a hunting and raising kids mode rather than 
more risky business of trying to kill neighbors who had a good chance of 
killing you instead.

One modern example is the fading of the IRA in Northern Ireland.  30-35 
years ago the women there cut the birth rate to near replacement.  The 
growth of the economy eventually got ahead of population growth resulting 
in rising income per capita.  Their stone age brains then said "that's 
enough war" even though not very many had been killed and the population's 
support for the IRA warriors dried up.

So, what would shut off the war in Iraq?  Besides an outright orgy of 
killing, a major epidemic would do the job as would a major 
famine.  Eventually things will be in such bad shape for so long that 
people get used to the horrible conditions as the norm.  Then a small up 
tick can have positive feedback because an improving economy from a low 
base will tend to shut off war mode.

But like Lebanon, that could take several decades.  :-(

These thoughts, an application of evolutionary psychology principles, are 
the most depressing ones I know about--and you are the lucky recipients.

Keith Henson

PS.  If anyone can pick holes in the model, please brighten my day and do so.