[extropy-chat] can't war protesters do better?

[Jeff Davis]

--- Dan Clemmensen <dgc at cox.net> wrote:

> But now the war has happened. The problem is how to
> extract ourselves 
> with the least additional damage.  Simply pulling
> out as fast as 
> physically possible may be the least bad solution,
> but it will not stop 
> the insurgency. It will lead to an ugly 3-way civil
> war.

Because Bush and Co. wanted it all, the oil, the
military bases, transformative domination of the
entire region.  They sought nothing less than total
victory, glory, and confirmation  of the superiority
of their worldview (the one that turned out to be
soooo not-reality-based), and the establishment of the
Republican thousand-year reich.  To ward off defeatism
(cf. realism) they peddled a bunch of fables about the
negative consequences of not "staying the course", 
gloomy prognostications repeated mantra-like til
accepted as true.  (Repeat something enough times...)
Consider, please, the source, a cabal of sleaze who
don't even bother to notice whether a statement is
true or not so long as its utterance furthers their
agenda.  

One of these has been the prediction--in the event of
a premature or precipitous withdrawal--of a
compellingly bad, bloody civil war.  Compelling, in
the sense of the presumptive conclusion
that--surprise, surprise--we must "stay the course"
"as long as it takes".

So, if it please you, set aside the agenda-serving 
propaganda, and consider some facts:  

Simple overflights, with the occasional spasm of
air-to-ground missile fire, kept the Kurds and Shia
cozy and safe for what?, eleven years, even though
Saddam was in control of Iraq.  Now that he's gone and
his security infrastructure trashed; now, with the
Peshmerga, numbering 100,000 men and the Shia militias
many tens of thousands more, all in tip top shape, do
you really think the insurgents--tankless and
planeless--are gonna have a field day taking on the
Kurds and Shia.  Factor into the equation air and
materiel support from the Americans, and then tell me
whose blood is going to be shed.  Add the option of
Iranian support (in case the Americans want to bug out
completely), and  you have Kurds and Shia holding an
overwhelming advantage in military resources,
materiel, allies, world support, ... and outnumbering
the Sunnis four to one.  Kurdish and Shia territory
both have buttloads of oil, Sunni territory, buttloads
of sand.  The Kurds and Shia have no reason to fight
each other, and no reason to fight the Sunnis except
defensively.  The Sunnis have every reason to
negotiate a settlement because their military position
is ridiculous, and if they get cut out of the oil,
they'll be left a country of over-educated rag
pickers.  If there were to be a civil war at all, I
assert--on the basis of this fact-like analysis, not
propaganda--that it would be a short one.  Have you
ever heard anyone present the fact-like counter
argument?   

> I've come to the conclusion that the least bad
> solution would be a 3-way 
> partition of Iraq, 

<snip>

> This would be a really, really bad
> solution,  

It seems to me that this assertion is yet another
negative presumption based on fact-free propaganda.

Why bad?  Why isn't it the logical, right, just,
ethical, practical, pragmatic solution.  The Brits
cobbled these three ethnic populations together back
when (and, just for the record, sliced off Kuwait),
and, like the Ottomans before them, left the Sunnis in
charge of administrative duties.  Was that sovereign
configuration the holy grail of mesopotamian
nation-building, or a seething jury-rigged mess?  

And leave us not forget that it was the CIA who
engineered the coups that brought first the Bathists
and then Saddam himself, to power. (This is what I've
heard, if you've heard differently, by all means, clue
me in.)

In summary, the Bushie narrative of the events of
their time has been unalloyed bullshit.  Dispose of
that crap.  Start at square one, get the facts, and
figure out what the possibilities may be, the
reality-based possibilities. 

Best, Jeff Davis

  "During times of universal deceit, telling the
         truth becomes a revolutionary act." 
                         George Orwell


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