[extropy-chat] Collapse (Jared Diamond)

[Dan Clemmensen]

Reason wrote:

>--> Dan Clemmensen
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>>Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2005 7:26 PM
>>To: ExI chat list
>>Subject: [extropy-chat] Collapse (Jared Diamond)
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>>I am almost finished reading "Collapse." It is fascinating and every bit
>>as thought-provoking as "Guns, Germs, and Steel."
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>I think it got somewhat savaged on a variety of sensible grounds didn't it?
>Basically he's being Malthusian in his predictions for the future, based as
>they are on historical events that actually have very little in common with
>present day scenarios...
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>http://www.davidbrin.com/collapse.html
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Have you read it? Diamond cites Malthus explicitly in the chapter on 
Rwanda. He
does not harp on overpopulation the other chapters.

He is also quite clear on his methods. The prologue alone is worth 
reading: it gives
a concise explanation of the difference between controlled experiments 
(lab science)
and natural experiments (observational science.) Certain areas of 
inquiry are simply
not amenable to laboratory science. Such fields include for example 
astrophysics,
cosmology, and the collapse of civilizations. You study the simple cases 
and attempt to
derive theories that may apply to more complicated cases. Sometimes you 
are wrong,
but your theories and your experimental evidence are public knowledge in 
the sense of
     http://info.med.yale.edu/therarad/summers/ziman.htm

So yes, you can agree that some of Diamond's natural experiments are 
trivial or otherwise
irrelevant. I personally thought most of them were valid.

Note that Diamond is firmly embedded in today's technology his book is 
all about
exponential growth in the use of resources, without any analysis of 
exponential changes
in efficiency or effectiveness that we extropians spend our time 
analyzing. However, Diamond
does note on several occasions that we are in a race between these two 
exponentials, and
that a race between two exponentials is very difficult to predict.

I am an extremist Singulatarian, so I think we (humanity) will win the 
race. I'm not worried
about worldwide collapse due to population-driven overpopulation. 
However, my analysis
does not prevent me from admiring Diamond's work. I find each of his 
analyses fascinating.

I really did not like the way he lumped Thor Heyerdahl and Von Daniken, 
but this is probably
because Aku Aku was my favorite book when I was twelve years old.